New Coloration of Middle Belt Politics
Regional Editor,Olawale Rasheed identifies new trends in middle belt
politics, concluding that religious nationalism is fast replacing the
region`s old ethnic nationalism.
The Middle Belt region is traditionally known as the bastion of
opposition to Hausa Fulani hegemony. This was true from the precolonial to post colonial era. Recent development in geo-political
north has however changed the outlook of the zone, making
conclusion of a particular direction in future battle a difficult
conjectures to make.
The usual assumptions by most analysts have been that of a
monolithic middle belt ever ready to go the same way in political
battle. Relatedly too, most analysts fail to trace the final destination
of most middle belt leaders who championed the separatist
movement from the first republic till date. An in-depth review of
trends in the middle belt reveals uncomfortable findings which may
even shocked many holding traditional conceptions about the zone.
In the past, middle belt nationalism has little to do with religion.
Many activists from the zone are religion-blind with Christians and
muslims mixing for common goal. In fact, records of the first republic
showed many muslims of minority tribes in the north leading the
battle against late Sardauna of Sokoto, Sir Ahmadu Bello and his
camp within the Northern Peoples Congress .The clarion call was a
common assault against tribal slavery represented by the Hausa
Fulani domination of political and economic space.
In contemporary politics of the region, there is an emergence of
religious nationalism which is now influencing the definition of areas
covered by middle belt. Increasingly many are equating middle belt
with Christian belt, a development that has far reaching implications
for the analysis of happenings in the zone. This new distinction
championed by many affiliated with the northern Christian elders has
in the last five years changed the political demographics of the zone
and complicates task of conclusions on trends of political affiliations.
The implication of the preceding is that religious nationalism now
defines affiliation more than mere emotional relationship, The silent
war playing out in Plateau state is a key reflection of this
reality.Thus,a review of Middle Belt affiliation will be simplistic if it
is based merely on the old stereotypes of anti-Hausa Fulani
worldview of the old. This changes the outlook of the region if push
comes to shoving.
A review of religious composition of the region will help in this
respect. The predominant Christian states in the region include
Plateau, Benue, Taraba.Predominant Muslim states in the region
include Kwara, Niger, Nassarawa and Kogi.In the preceding two
categories are also strong presence of both Muslims and Christians
while Kaduna has a strong presence of both adherents. The region is
thus a mixed bag of religious habitation. In the last five years, the
various adherents have become activated based on religious lines
such that in the battle for presidency, religion rather than tribes may
become a deciding factor.
For those who may be surprised with this conclusion, let delves into
the matter more. The Boko Haram insurgency has raised so many
conspiracy theories that are scaring even the most self assured.
Nowhere are these theories more widespread and believed than in
the three northern geo-political zones. Rightly or wrongly, northern
Christians believed the Boko Haram crisis is a land grab and ethnic
cleansing project by muslims aimed at reducing coverage area of
Christianity in the greater north. The Northern muslims on the other
hand believed that the Boko Haram crisis is a Christian creation
designed to unleash state security apparatus on the muslim north and
destroy it economic and social fabric.
The two versions are in wide circulation in the north, increasing
mutual suspicion and mixing political decision to religious
affiliation.Consequently, the Middle Belt has become the battle
ground for the two religions to flex muscle and seek for protection of
territories and assets. Facts on ground confirm that for the middle
belt, the issue is no more tribal war but rather a religious war to be
fought on political field.
If religion has become a factor in middle belt nationalism, the other
issue has to do with the inter-ethnic relationship within the region. In
the hey days of middle belt agitations, the hot spots were plateau
and Benue states. Late Senator Joseph Tarka was then always at
logger heads with the plateau leaders who competed with him for
leadership. In fact at a point, Chief Solomon Lar fell out with late
Tarka leading to Chief Lar joining the NPC government in the first
republic. History also records that late Tarka ended his political
career as a senator of the defunct National Party of Nigeria.
The middle belt fervor was never that strong in Kogi where most
prominent leaders worked closely with late Sardauna.For old Kwara,
it was a fact that the core north was their preferred allies. For
present day Nassarawa state, the state itself was founded due to
agitation of the muslim segment of old plateau to free themselves
from alleged persecution by plateau Christian leaders. It was strong
in Borno but relatively weak in Adamawa and Taraba axis.
It is also important to note that the middle belt in the last poll
massively support the incumbent due to so many factors. The first is
the governors` desperate search for security since as some of them
have noted, supporting the president is a way of guaranteeing their
protection from investigations and prosecutions. Secondly, the nation
was not yet as blindly gripped in current insurgency as we are now.
Three, there was no religious phobia such as Christian or muslim
dominated presidency. And more significantly was that the incumbent
truly enjoy a populist support cutting across religious and ethnic
divide in the last general elections.
If we are to extrapolate, we can then assess whether all those four
factors can still be relevant in future contest. The state of the middle
belt as at the 2011 polls has changed and old criteria may not be
productively used to gauge future happenings. In reality, the region
may go the way of religion more than ethnicity unless some drastic
developments happened before the 2015 polls.
In strategy rooms therefore, old assumptions may have to give way
for new reasoning and possibilities. State by state tactics may be
suitable to specifically address suitability of mobilization strategies
.A region wide approach may fail as the indices from state to state
vary even more widely than many may think. A monolithic middle
belt is simply a mirage which smart party strategists must relies
early enough.
When analysts write about non existence of a monolithic north, their
reference is largely to divisions and entrenched differences in the
middle belt reaching from southern Kebbi to southern Borno,a region
deeply diverse in ethnicity and religion. A dead monolithic north may
transform into two platforms dominated separately Islamic and
Christian nationalism.
In the permutations for 2015 therefore, expectations may vary from
reality and contenders need to do more reality checks as the north is
witnessing very fundamental changes which may hence forth
dominate its politics and existence.