Banh 1
Banh 2
Courtney Banh
AP Statistics
Kiker
February 14, 2014
The Confidence Interval Mini-Project
Sunburns, dehydration and flower crowns are among the things that someone could
find at every music festival in the United States. Being front row and seeing my favorite artists
perform live on stage is such a fulfilling experience, and it has only been in the past few years
that I have gone to concerts. The 2014 lineup for Coachella, one of the biggest music festivals in
the nation, was recently released. This sparked my curiosity for Austin City Limits’ 2014 lineup
that has yet to be released and whether Coachella’s lineup can be a predictor for that of ACL.
This would be valuable knowledge in deciding on coming home from college for this year’s ACL,
especially if some of my favorite bands are coming to town. Coachella happens around the
month of April, and ACL occurs in the fall. There are artists coming to Coachella this year that I
would love to see, and their tour schedules and recent album releases make them the perfect
candidates to come to Austin. This motivated me to find the true population proportion of
musicians who perform at Coachella who also perform at ACL later that same year.
For a simple random sample, I chose my sample population to be from both Coachella
2012 and 2013 so that I could attain a sample of at least 30 and be at least 10% of the
population. I numbered the Coachella artists from 001 to 338 then used the random integer
function on the calculator to collect 33 samples. I defined p-hat as the proportion of Coachella
2012 and 2013 artists who attended ACL in the same respective year. For example, Jimmy Eat
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World was chosen in my sample; this band went to Coachella in 2012 but was at ACL in 2013, so
it did not count towards my x-value. In doing so, this kept my sample from being stratified.
Although I numbered the Coachella artists by headliners and year, the numbering does not
affect the chance of an artist being selected. In a simple random sample, each number has an
equal chance of being selected, regardless of the way the numbers were assigned.
This simple random sample chose the following musicians from Coachella: Interpol,
Caifanes, Crystal Castles, Cold War Kids, Afrojack, The Morning Benders, OFWGKTA, Hurts, Paul
Van Dyk, One Day as a Lion, Gogol Bordello, Foals, Electric Touch, Thao with the Get Down Stay
Down, DJ Marky, The Henry Clay People, Alf Alpha, Jimmy Eat World, Jack’s Mannequin, CSS,
Modest Mouse, Of Monsters and Men, Polica, Simian Mobile Disco, Portugal the Man, The
Evens, Reignwolf, Vintage Trouble, Rodriguez, Jamie Jones, DIIV, Mord Fustang, and White
Arrows. Of these selected, only Crystal Castles, Portugal the Man, Reignwolf and Vintage
Trouble were at both Coachella and Austin City Limits of the same year, giving me a sample
proportion (p-hat) of 4/33, or 0.1212.
In producing confidence intervals, we first have to meet certain conditions (see page
11). Although n(p-hat) was not greater than or equal to 10, I still assumed a normal
approximation because in this context, a larger p-hat value is not plausible. Given these two
music festivals, it is highly unlikely for their lineups to show a large amount of overlap. A low
sample proportion is realistic, therefore, so is a low true population proportion. Because these
conditions check out, I am able to make confidence intervals (see page 11).
In my calculations, I have a p-hat of 0.1212, a standard error of 0.0568, and critical
values of 1.645, 1.96 and 2.326 (for 90%, 95% and 98% confidence levels respectively). I am
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90% confident that the true proportion of Coachella artists that also attend Austin City Limits
later that year will be between 2.78% and 21.47%. I am 95% confident that the true proportion
of Coachella artists that also go to ACL afterwards will be between 0.986% and 23.26%. Finally, I
am 98% confident that the true proportion of Coachella musicians that also play at ACL in the
same year will be between 0% and 25.34%.When applied to the 2014 Coachella lineup, I am
90% confident that 2.78% to 21.74% of these artists to be at ACL later this year. I am 95%
confident that 0.986% to 23.26% of musicians performing at this year’s Coachella will also be
seen at ACL in October. Finally, I am 98% confident that none to 25.34% of Coachella 2014
artists will go to this year’s Austin City Limits.
If I were to run this sample again, it could possibly produce a higher p-hat and, in turn,
not produce a negative lower boundary in a confidence level. This was my only misstep in
gathering my data and performing calculations. From this sample, I found an expected interval
for the percentage of musicians from Coachella who also go to Austin City Limits afterwards. I
am hoping that Chromeo, Drowners, Dum Dum Girls, Bombay Bicycle Club and MGMT are
among the 2014 ACL lineup; these artists have recently released new singles and albums, so it is
very possible for them to come. This parameter, along with the additional knowledge of album
releases, traveling the festival circuit, tour schedules and past concert locations, can be a useful
determinant for who we can expect to see at Austin City Limits.
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Works Cited
"ACL Music Festival." ACL Music Festival. N.p., n.d. Web. 12 Feb. 2014.
<http://www.aclfestival.com >.
“History.” Coachella. N.p., n.d. Web. 12 Feb. 2014. <http://coachella.com>.
Hlavaty, Craig. "ACL Music Festival." ACL Music Festival. Houston Press, 22 May 2012. Web. 13
Feb. 2014. <http://www.blogs.houstonpress.com>.
“Lineup.” Coachella. N.p., n.d. Web. 12 Feb. 2014. <http://coachella.com>.
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COACHELLA 2012 AND 2013 LINEUP
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KINGS OF LEON
THE BLACK KEYS
INTERPOL
THE CHEMICAL BROTHERS
CAIFANES
ROBYN
SASHA
MS. LAURYN HILL
BRANDON FLOWERS
CRYSTAL CASTLES
MAGNETIC MAN
ERICK MORILLO
CEE LO GREEN
CUT COPY
COLD WAR KIDS
SLEIGH BELLS
BOYS NOIZE
AFROJACK
FLOGGING MOLLY
WARPAINT
OZOMATLI
TAME IMPALA
NOSAJ THING
AREIL PINK’S HAUNTED
GRAFFITI
A-TRAK
!!!
THE PAINS OF BEING PURE
AT HEART
KELE
MARINA AND THE
DIAMONDS
OMAR RODRIGUEZ-LOPEZ
MONARCHY
GAYNGS
YACHT
TITUS ANDRONICUS
COLD CAVE
THE DRUMS
THE MORNING BENDERS
SANDER KLEINENBERG
GLASSER
MOVING UNITS
EXCISION
OFWGKTA
BLACK JOE LEWIS & THE
HONEYBEARS
THE AQUABATS
SKRILLEX
BRANDT BRAUER FRICK
SCALA & KOLACNY BROS.
12TH PLANET
BREAKAGE
HURTS
THE RURAL ALBERTA
ADVANTAGE
BEARDYMAN
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NEW PANTS
MOUNT KIMBIE
JAKES
KYLE HALL
MIGUEL
EMICIDA
ARCADE FIRE
ANIMAL COLLECTIVE
MUMFORD & SONS
BRIGHT EYES
EMPIRE OF THE SUN
BIG AUDIO DYNAMITE
STEVE ANGELLO
THE KILLS
ERYKAH BADU
PAUL VAN DYK
BROKEN SOCIAL SCENE
ONE DAY AS A LION
THE LONDON SUEDE
FEDDE LE GRAND
SCISSOR SISTERS
THE NEW PORNOGRAPHERS
GOGOL BORDELLO
CAGE THE ELEPHANT
THE SWELL SEASON
SHPONGLE
LAIDBACK LUKE
ELBOW
DAEDELUS
DELTA SPIRIT
TWO DOOR CINEMA CLUB
JENNY AND JOHNNY
FOALS
THE TALLEST MAN ON EARTH
CULTS
THE RADIO DEPT.
CHUCKIE
RAPHAEL SAADIQ
LIL’ B
WIRE
YELLE
ELECTRIC TOUCH
THAO WITH THE GET DOWN
STAY DOWN
THE JOY FORMIDABLE
PHOSPHORESCENT
FRANCIS AND THE LIGHTS
THE LOVE LANGUAGE
HERE WE GO MAGIC
DJ HYPE
DJ MARKY
JOACHIM GARRAUD
THE HENRY CLAY PEOPLE
FREELANCE WHALES
MARIACHI EL BRONX
THE TWELVES
EE
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BOMBA ESTEREO
ANDY C
SBTRKT
THE FELICE BROTHERS
TRAMPLED BY TURTLES
MARY ANNE HOBBS
ALF ALPHA
KANYE WEST
THE STROKES
DURAN DURAN
THE NATIONAL
PJ HARVEY
DEATH FROM ABOVE 1979
NAS & DAMIAN MARLEY
RATATAT
WIZ KHALIFA
JIMMY EAT WORLD
AXWELL
SVEN VATH
BLOODY BEETROOTS DEATH
CREW 77
CHROMEO
DUCK SAUCE
CHASE AND THE STATUS
NEON TREES
THE PRESETS
LEFTFIELD
BEST COAST
LIGHTNING BOLT
SHE WANTS REVENGE
JACK’S MANNEQUIN
GREEN VELVET
FISTFUL OF MERCY
HEALTH
JACK BEATS
CSS
MEN
CITY AND COLOUR
FOSTER THE PEOPLE
ANGUS AND JULIA STONE
DELOREAN
TRENTEMELLER
PHANTOGRAM
TWIN SHADOW
OFF!
TINIE TEMPAH
PLAN B
CASPA
RIVA STARR
JOY ORBISON
MENOMENA
FUN.
GOOD OLD WAR
ELLIE GOULDING
RYE RYE
ELIZA DOOLITTLE
LOS BUNKERS
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COACHELLA 2012 AND 2013 LINEUP
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HIGH CONTRAST
DJ ZINC
THUNDERBALL
GORD DOWNIE
RYAN LESLIE
TOKIMONSTA
BLUR
THE STONE ROSES
YEAH YEAH YEAHS
MODEST MOUSE
JURASSIC 5
GRINDERMAN
BASSNECTAR
DOG BLOOD
HOW TO DESTROY ANGELS
PASSION PIT
TEGAN AND SARA
BAND OF HORSES
BEACH HOUSE
METRIC
LOCAL NATIVES
OF MONSTERS AND MEN
INFECTED MUSHROOM
JAPANDROIDS
DIVINE FITS
LUCIANO
STARS
JOHNNY MARR
FOALS
SETH TROCLER
WOLFGANG GARTNER
MICKEY ROMERO
MODESTEP
TOMMY TRASH
THOMAS GOLD
THE SHOUTING MATCHES
DILLON FRANCIS
FOUR TET
AESOP ROCK
ALT-J
JELLO BIAFRAN AND THE
GUATANAMO SCHOOL OF
MEDICINE
TNGHT
JAKE BUGG
EARL SWEATSHIRT
POLICA
SPARKS
TOKYO SKA PARADISE
ORCHESTRA
PURITY RING
YOUTH LAGOON
LEE SCRATCH PERRY
DAM-FUNK
DJ HARVEY
JAMIE XX
DEATHFIX
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C2C
BEARDYMAN
LORD HURON
PALMA VIOLETS
IQ ECHO
SKINNY LISTER
JAMES MCCARTNEY
THE NEIGHBOURHOOD
RAYMOND ROKER
MARIO COTTO
SAM XL PURE FILTH SOUND
PHOENIX
THE XX
THE POSTAL SERVICE
SIGUR ROS
NEW ORDER
HOT CHIP
GRIZZLY BEAR
KNIFE PARTY
BENNY BENASSI
FRANZ FERDINAND
TWO DOOR CINEMA CLUB
MOBY
DESCENDENTS
YEASAYER
VIOLENT FEMMES
SIMIAN MOBILE DISCO
SPIRITUALIZED
PUSCIFER
CAFÉ TACVBA
PORTUGAL THE MAN
THE MAKE-UP
BAT FOR LASHES
RICHIE HAWTIN
MAJOR LAZER
FEDDE LE GRAND
DROPKICK MURPHYS
BEN HOWARD
2 CHAINZ
JANELLE MONAE
DANNY BROWN
WILD NOTHING
BOOKA SHADE
TRASH TALK
JULIO BASHMORE
BINGO PLAYERS
ALLEN STONE
EL-P
THE SELECTER
PUSHA T
KILL THE NOISE
THE EVENS
BIFFY CLYRO
THEOPHILUS LONDON
BAAUER
ZANE LOWE
BIRDY NAM NAM
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ACTION BRONSON
JASON BENTLEY
THE WOMBATS
GUARDS
MONA
SAVAGES
SHOVELS & ROPE
HUORATRON
REIGNWOLF
CASSY
38ALL MTY
KIDS THESE DAYS
THE 2 BEARS
THE COLOURIST
VINTAGE TROUBLE
BEEN TRILL
RED HOT CHILI PEPPERS
NICK CAVE AND THE BAD
SEEDS
VAMPIRE WEEKEND
SOCIAL DISTORTION
WU-TANG CLAN
GRIMES
PRETTY LIGHTS
ERIC PRYDZ
TAME IMPALA
THE LUMINEERS
DEAD LA DUFE
JAMES BLAKE
EXCISION
THE GASLIGHT ANTHEM
THE FAINT
HARDWELL
PAUL OAKENFOLD
DINOSAUR JR.
RAIDER KLAN
OMD
RONI SIZE AND DYNAMITE
MC
KURT VILE AND THE
VIOLATORS
THE AIRBORNE TOXIC EVENT
FATHER JOHN MISTY
TANLINES
RODRIGUEZ
ALEX CLARE
PAUL KALKBRENNER
JESSIE WARE
LOCO DICE
JAMIE JONES
THE THREE O’CLOCK
DIRTYPHONICS
JORIS VOORN
HANNI EL KHATIB
DANNY AVILA
GHOST B.C.
DIIV
COACHELLA 2012 AND 2013 LINEUP
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LITTLE GREEN CARS
MORD FUSTANG
ROBERT DELONG
WHITE ARROWS
DEAP VALLY
WILD BELLE
ADRIAN LUX
LADIES NIGHT
JDH AND DAVE P
Banh 8
ACL 2012 AND 2013 LINEUP
RED HOT CHILI PEPPERS
NEIL YOUNG AND CRAZY HORSE
THE BLACK KEYS
JACK WHITE
FLORENCE AND THE MACHINE
THE AVETT BROTHERS
IGGY & THE STOOGES
AVICII
BASSNECTAR
THE ROOTS
THE SHINS
WEEZER
GOTEYE
THE CIVIL WARS
M83
TEGAN AND SARA
CHILDISH GAMBINO
TWO DOOR CINEMA CLUB
THIEVERY CORPORATION
THE AFGHAN WHIGS
CRYSTAL CASTLES
ANDREW BIRD
GARY CLARK JR
METRIC
BAND OF SKULLS
ESPERANZA SPALDING
ALABAMA SHAKES
DELTA SPIRIT
M. WARD
RANDY ROGERS BAND
DIE ANTWOORD
RUFUS WAINWRIGHT
NEEDTOBREATHE
BIG GIGANTIC
ANTIBALAS AFROBEAT
ORCHESTRA
STEVE EARLE
THE WAR ON DRUGS
UNMPHREY’S MCGEE
BARRINGTON LEVY
OLD 97’S
PUNCH BROTHERS
BOMBAY BICYCLE CLUB
A-TRAK
TRAMPLED BY TURTLES
PATTERSON HOOD
MICHAEL KIWANUKA
BIG K.R.I.T.
OBERHOFER
POLICA
TENNIS
ZOLA JESUS
STARS
KIMBRA
BLACK LIPS
LOS CAMPESINOS!
JOVANOTTI
BEN HOWARD
RUTHIE FOSTER
FREELANCE WHALES
CIVIL TWILIGHT
THE WHIGS
DEV
THE LUMINEERS
BAD BOOKS
THE DEVIL MAKES THREE
ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL
FIRST AID KIT
PATRICK WATSON
LP
CAVEMAN
LEE FIELDS & THE EXPRESSIONS
FATHER JOHN MISTY
THE WOMBATS
DRY THE RIVER
THE BOXER REBELLION
SOUL REBELS BRASS BAND
THUNDER CAT
WILLIS EARL BEAL
HE’S MY BROTHER
SHE’S MY SISTER
KISHI BASHI
DEEP DARK WOODS
MOON DUO
KOPECKY FAMILY BAND
RIVER CITY EXTENSION
QUIET CORRAL
WHEELER BROTHERS
THE RELATIVES
SPACE CAPONS
THE STAVES
NATIVE RUN
NIKKI LANE
QUIET COMPANY
INFANTREE
WILD CHILD
LA VIDA BOHEME
THE EASTERN SEA
THE DUNWELLS
KENNY VAUGHN TRIO
JUSTIN JONES
SONAMBULO
ROYAL TEETH
NOAH GUNDERSON
THE AARON IVEY BAND
THE MIGHTY SINCERE VOICES
G.S.T.
COLORFEELS
LERA LYNN
MGEAN MCCORMICK
SHIELDS OF FAITH
STAPLETONES
THE BAYLOR CHOIR
DISCIPLES OF JOY
Banh 9
RALPH’S WORLD
ORANGE SHERBET
BIG DON
ROCKNOCEROS
HULLABALOO
JAMBO
PETER DISTEFANO & TOR
THE SCHOOL OF ROCK
THE Q BROTHERS
DEPECHE MODE
THE CURE
MUSE
KINGS OF LEON
ATOMS FOR PEACE
LIONEL RICHIE
PHOENIX
WILCO
VAMPIRE WEEKEND
THE NATIONAL
ERIC CHURCH
PASSION PIT
QUEENS OF THE STONE AGE
ARCTIC MONKEYS
FUN.
KENDRICK LAMAR
FRANZ FERDINAND
KASKADE
TAME IMPALA
LOCAL NATIVES
THE SHOUTING MATCHES
TORO Y MOI
GRIMES
PORTUGAL. THE MAN
SILVERSUN PICKUPS
THE JOY FORMIDABLE
NEKO CASE
DIVINE FITS
GROUPLOVE
JIMMY EAT WORLD
THE BLACK ANGELS
THE BRIGHT LIGHT SOCIAL HOUR
THE MAVERICKS
OKKERVIL RIVER
SHUGGIE OTIS
PURITY RING
DAWES
HAIM
SMITH WESTERNS
JUNIP
WALK THE MOON
VINTAGE TROUBLE
NOAH AND THE WHALE
PAPER DIAMOND
LISSIE
PINBACK
THE JON SPENCER BLUES
EXPLOSION
ACL 2012 AND 2013 LINEUP
WILD BELLE
PHOSPHORESCENT
COURT YARD HOUNDS
THAO & THE GET DOWN STAY
DOWN
LITTLE GREEN CARS
SAVAGES
AUTRE NE VEUT
PARQUET COURTS
FIDLAR
WHITE DENIM
TRUE BELIEVERS
THE BLIND BOYS OF ALABAMA
DELTA RAE
JAKE BUGG
KODALINE
THE LONE BELLOW
ELECTRIC GUEST
DAN CROLL
DEAP VALLY
WILD NOTHING
LANCE HERBSTRONG
TYPHOON
HUNDRED WATERS
TWIN FORKS
RED BARAAT
ELECTRIC SIX
SHOVELS & ROPE
REIGNWOLF
MONA
MS MR
SMALLPOOLS
WIDOWSPEAK
ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL
BEAR MOUNTAIN
GREENSKY BLUEGRASS
JD MCPHERSON
PACHA MASSIVE
VALERIE JUNE
THE MOWGLI’S
THE WILD FEATHERS
ROADKILL GHOST CHOIR
JC BROOKS AND THE UPTOWN
SOUND
DESERT NOISES
THE ORWELLS
THE BAND OF HEATHENS
HOLLY WILLIAMS
ALANNA ROYALE
CHERUB
THE DYNAMITES
CHARLES WALKER
SHINYRIBS
THE WEEKS
SHAKEY GRAVES
WICK-IT THE INSTIGATOR
AARON BEHRENS AND THE
MIGNIGHT STROLL
HOUNDMOUTH
WILD CUB
PETERSON BROTHERS BAND
LUELLA AND THE SUN
X AMBASSADORS
SONS OF FATHERS
COURRIER
MY JERUSALEM
NOT IN THE FACE
DANA FALCONBERRY
BOBBY JEALOUSY
WHISKEY SHIVERS
THE PRESERVATION
MAX FROST
LATASHA LEE & THE BLACK TIES
CALEB
SHANNON LABRIE
ANDREW DUHON
KRISTIN DIABLE & THE CITY
COLIN LAKE
BROOKE WAGGONER
TYREE MORRIS & HEARTS OF
WORSHIP
ENDURANCE
THE STAPLETONES
KINGS OF HARMONY PLUS ONE
THE MCCRARY SISTERS
DISCIPLES OF CHRIST
BELLS OF JOY
THE DURDENS
THE WARRIOR GOSPEL BAND
BARTON HILLS CHOIR
THE VERVE PIPE
SCHOOL OF ROCK
TIM AND THE SPACE CADETS
MOTHER FALCON
PETER DISTEFANO & TOR
GRACE LONDON
PLAY DATE
THE OHMIES
THE Q BROTHERS
ANDY Z
CASPAR BABYPANTS
Banh 10
Banh 11