Vulnerability of livelihoods in Kagbeni Mustang district, Nepal Renske Duns Supervisor: Dr. P.H.C.M van Lindert University Utrecht, Human Geography Master Thesis Renske Duns Student number: 3168921 E-mail: dunsrenske@hotmail.com University Utrecht University Faculty of Geosciences Msc International Development Studies Supervisor: Dr. P.H.C.M. van Lindert Place and date: November 2011, Utrecht 1 Executive summary In the current world wide debate on climate change it is globally accepted that several areas and livelihoods are being threatened by climate factors. Different climate circumstances could impact livelihoods in several ways. Since climate related inputs like rain and snow are most crucial for cultivation, agricultural based societies and communities see either an adverse or beneficial impact of climate variability. Except for climate related exposures, diverse other exposures like in demographic, environmental and political spheres could have an impact on livelihoods. Some households can be more or less vulnerable to exposures than others, depending on different factors like their sensitivity and adaptive capacity (Hahn, 2008). Which exposures are apparent and how vulnerable certain livelihoods are, depend on the specific context in which a study is conducted. Mountain livelihoods see different climate circumstances and livelihood strategies then for example livelihoods depending on rain forest. Mountain regions are considered as being one of the most fragile ecosystems and highly exposed to climate variability which can make livelihoods vulnerable. Despite this, little attention is paid to the vulnerability of mountain livelihoods (ICIMOD, 2010). This study focuses on mountain livelihoods in the Himalayan region of Nepal, namely the village of Kagbeni situated in the Mustang district. It assesses the range of factors that could be responsible for vulnerability of Kagbeni livelihoods. Kagbeni is situated on almost 3000 meters altitude and characterized by a harsh semi-desert climate in which households mainly depend on irrigation fed agriculture, livestock keeping and the relative new development of tourism. Another main income source is remittances, derived from household members living in Pokhara, Kathmandu or India. Kagbeni village and the surrounding area are highly influenced by Tibetan Buddhism which is a central phenomenon in daily life. The exposure towards climate variability, the sensitivity including water, food, health and energy security and the responses to these vulnerable factors are investigated among households in Kagbeni. Therefore, livelihood strategies used by households in Kagbeni are of main importance to be studied. Besides, two main developments, namely tourism and the new road construction that connect Kagbeni to the outside world, have been responsible for the opening up of the village and therefore influence Kagbeni livelihoods in several ways. The primary exposure to climate variability is decrease in snowfall, showing most adverse impacts on livelihoods of Kagbeni. As except for glacial melt water, snow is the most crucial input factor for cultivation as well as food for animals, a decrease is most problematic. Responses to this climate variability are the traditional saving of seeds and crops for the next season as well as the extensive use of the communal irrigation system and the irrigation of grass fields to feed animals. The primary factor making livelihoods of Kagbeni sensitive is the insufficient and difficult accessibility of drinking water. During wintertime, tap water is often frozen while in summertime the water contains too much sediment to be drinkable. Although this problem has been existing for long times, the increasing demand on drinking water (due to amongst other tourism) as well as possible climate related adverse influences like less snowfall makes this factor a serious problem. Responses are the use of roof tanks to catch rain water and the practice of sediment sinking in which water is filtered. 2 Moreover, energy security is insufficient, due to the shortage of fuel wood and affordable alternatives. Also, food security is lacking among a great part of the households as food has to be bought from outside Kagbeni. This food transport is most difficult during spring and summer season when the monsoon is apparent in the lower valleys causing bad road conditions. Besides, during winter season no cultivation and harvest is possible and food is insufficient to feed all households of Kagbeni. A traditional method to alter this problem is seasonal migration in which household members move to Pokhara, Kathmandu or India to sell clothes or materials while living and eating at the particular destination. Only few household members stay during winter season in Kagbeni to take care of livestock and the houses. The new road, constructed in 2006, has a diverse impact on different factors among households in Kagbeni. Transport opportunities have increased since travel times have been shortening and goods can be transported for a lower price. Especially, food from outside Kagbeni like rice has become cheaper. Also energy sources, like gas and kerosene, can be supplied while before this was not or hardly possible. On the other side, adverse impacts are visible like pollution and the destruction of land. After all, households in Kagbeni have a diverse range of livelihood diversifications including the relative new developments of apple production and Yarsagumba trade. However, the opportunities in livelihood strategies differ between indigenous and non-indigenous households. The latter group, mainly originated from neighboring districts or the Tibet Autonomous State, has fewer opportunities and seems to be more vulnerable in certain aspects then indigenous households. The main reason is that non indigenous households are excluded from the owning of land, community meetings and access to forests, according to the traditional institutional system of Kagbeni. As a consequence, it is shown that non-indigenous households do not, or into a lesser extent, benefit from tourism since they are hardly able to own lodges or tourism affiliated businesses. Besides, they even face more problems in for example energy supply then indigenous households. 3 Preface This research and the final analysis in the form of this thesis could not have been realized without the support of many people in different places on earth. The most crucial part of the research has been the fieldwork in Nepal, into which the necessary data was collected in order to create this final thesis. First of all, the initial start of this research in the village of Kagbeni was realized due to the support of Dara Varrgongwa and his family. They provided help in different aspects including the provision of broad knowledge about the village, the organizing of discussion groups and the offering of hostage and food. Besides, the two joyful translators and great assistors Kulendra Ghimire and Ayo Lampa were of main significance since they have given their time and effort to assist the research and realized the many visits to households which were interviewed. In this fieldwork, the cooperation of inhabitants of Kagbeni village was overwhelming since they were open to provide information and welcomed the researchers although they were busy enough in agricultural and tourism work in this peak time of the year. Also, the teachers of the primary school of Kagbeni were of great support as they gave not only practical support but moreover information regarding their lives, school and the village. Besides, Mr. Shukla, professor at Nepal Engineering College and Mr. Ajay Dixit, director of Nepal Water Conservation Foundation (NWCF) provided first information and access to contacts in Kagbeni village. Furthermore, I want to thank Dr. P. van Lindert for his support, feedback and positivism during the research as well as in Utrecht as in Nepal. The meetings and conversations we had were of great value for the realizing of this thesis. I also want to thank my study colleague Eline Brinkman which whom I conducted the field research. Eventually, family and friends were of high significance and gave me practical as well as mental support. First of all, my parents, Jan Duns en Betsy Veldwijk supported me in different ways and have always been a main cornerstone in this study as well as during my total study. Besides, my brother and sister were of great support and have always been interested and informative giving me necessary insights and tips. Furthermore, my friends Marjolein van Altena and Fabio Facoetti assisted me by reading this study and giving critical feedback about lay out and language aspects. 4 Table of content Executive summary p. 2 Preface p. 4 Abbreviations p. 7 List of tables p. 7 List of figures P. 8 List of boxes P. 8 List of pictures p. 9 1. Introduction p. 10 2. Theoretical framework p. 12 2.1 How to define livelihood vulnerability? 2.2 Linking climate variability and vulnerability 2.3 The role of adaptation strategies 2.4 Assessment analysis 2.5 Opening up of remote communities 2.6 Conclusion P. 12 P. 14 P. 15 P. 19 P. 21 P. 23 Research Methodology p. 24 3.1 Conceptual model and hypothesis 3.2 Research design 3.3 Research constraints P. 24 P. 26 P. 28 Contextual Background p. 30 4.1 Nepal 4.2 Mustang district 4.3 Kagbeni 4.3.1 Socio-Geographical context 4.3.2 Institutional context 4.3.3 Religious context 4.4 Tourism and Annapurna Conservation Area Project 4.5 The new road P. 30 P. 33 P. 35 p. 36 p. 49 p. 41 p. 43 p. 47 3. 4. 5 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Characteristics of Kagbeni livelihoods p. 49 5.1 Socio-demographical profile households 5.1.1 Landownership 5.1.2 Head household 5.1.3 Household size 5.1.4 Education 5.1.5 Health p. 50 p. 50 p. 51 p. 51 p. 52 p. 54 5.2 Livelihood strategies 5.2.1 Analyse of assets 5.2.2 Agriculture 5.3 Migration 5.4 Conclusion p. 55 p. 55 p. 58 p. 64 p. 66 Vulnerability aspects of Kagbeni livelihoods P. 68 6.1 Exposure: climate variability and natural hazards 6.1.1 Weather change and exposures over the last 5 years 6.1.2 Effects on livelihood 6.1.3 Responses 6.1.4 Livelihood perspectives compared to metrological data 6.2 Sensitivity 6.2.1 Food 6.2.2 Water 6.2.3 Energy 6.3 Conclusion p. 68 p .69 p. 70 p. 71 p. 72 p. 74 p. 74 p. 76 p. 78 p. 80 The opening up of Kagbeni P. 81 7.1 Tourism perspectives 7.2 Road perspectives 7.3 Conclusion p. 81 p. 83 p. 87 Discussion chapter P. 88 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Discussion 8.3 Conclusion p. 88 p. 91 p. 96 Conclusion and recommendations p. 97 Literature Appendix 6 Abbreviations ACA Annapurna Conservation Area ACAP Annapurna Conservation Area Project CBS Nepal Central Bureau Statistics Nepal DFID Department for International Development FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LDC Least Developed Countries LVI Livelihood Vulnerability Index NTNC National Trust for Nature Conservation NR Nepalese Rupees (1 NR= 0,01 Euro, http://coinmill.com) PPT Pro poor tourism UNDP United Nations Development Programme VDC Village Development Committee List of tables Table 1: Examples for each of the four categories of vulnerability factors classified according to the dimensions sphere and knowledge domain Table 2: Major components in the LVI-IPCC framework Table 3: Table 3: Household-level diversification strategies: NR-based and non NR-based Table 4: Kagbeni household characteristics Table 5: Sample composition Table 6: Landownership among indigenous and non-indigenous households Table 7: Education by geographical area among 22 indigenous and non-indigenous households having at least one household member attending education Table 8: Sources of income among indigenous and non-indigenous households Table 9: Number of income sources among indigenous and non-indigenous households 7 Table 10: Four categories of cultivation Kagbeni Table 11: Livestock among indigenous and non-indigenous households of the 18 households keeping livestock Table 12: Migration pattern and geographical area of 21 Kagbeni households Table 13: Distribution migration patterns and remittances of 21 Kagbeni households Table 14: Total mentioned weather changes over the last 5 years compared to the years before of 30 households from Kagbeni Table 15: Perceptions of the negative effect of snowfall decrease on crops and livestock among indigenous and non-indigenous households Table 16: Struggle to get enough food among indigenous and non-indigenous households Table 17: Reasons for struggle to get enough food on rank by 14 households Table 18: Drinking water problem among indigenous and non-indigenous households Table 19: Struggle to get enough energy sources among indigenous and non-indigenous households Table 20: Energy sources among indigenous and non-indigenous households Table 21: Tourism perspectives among indigenous and non-indigenous households Table 22: Road perspectives among indigenous and non-indigenous households Table 23: Positive aspects ranking from most to least mentioned by 21 households Table 24: Negative aspects of roads on ranking from most to least mentioned from 19 Kagbeni households Table 25: Outcomes of vulnerability factors among Kagbeni households Table 26: Main outcomes vulnerability factors List of figures Figure 1: Factors affecting livelihood vulnerability in Kagbeni Figure 2: Jobs by Nepalese migrants in Delhi, 2008 Figure 3: Geographical distribution of materials, human and financial flows to and from Kagbeni List of boxes Box 1: School of Kagbeni (interviews teachers and inhabitants) Box 2: Apples: the future of Kagbeni Box 3: Yarsagumba: the “Viagra of the Himalya’’ 8 List of pictures Picture 1: Kagbeni within the background the Nilgiri Mountain Picture 2: Monastery of Kagbeni Picture 3: New road Picture 4: Situation of Kagbeni and fields bordered by stone walls and irrigation channels Picture 5: Goats grazing on the higher fields Picture 6: Planting new apple trees 9 1 INTRODUCTION ‘’Despite their importance, mountains are still marginalized on development agendas’’ (ICIMOD, 2008). The 2010 United Nations Climate Change Conference was held from 29 November to 10 December in Cancun, Mexico. Although all parties joining the conference recognized the threat climate change poses to the planet and the urgency of addressing this, the outcomes did not show effective and strong agreements (Goldenberg, 2010). Climate change seems to be a threat ranging from local scale up to worldwide scale. The impact it has is highly contextual and can be adverse or beneficial. Besides, the attention paid to climate change effects differs per context and geographical area. Sometimes this could be justified in a sense that for example high populated areas in hazardous contexts will see more social impact of climate change features than sparsely populated areas. However, little attention is paid to climate change impacts on populations in certain highly fragile ecosystems. One of these systems is mountains. 10% of the world population is directly dependant on mountain resources while 40% indirectly for their livelihoods and wellbeing. The latter group is mainly depended on the water, hydro electricity potentials, timber, other niche products and recreation (ICIMOD, 2008). The Himalayas are one example of the huge significance of mountain systems for a great part of the world. ‘’The Himalayas are the water towers of Asia’’ (UNDP, 2011, Himalayan Meltdown).The shrinking mountain system contains 40 % of the earth’s fresh water system and is therefore of main importance for drinking water, energy and irrigation to 1.3 billion people. One of the countries situated in the Himalayas and characterized as the poorest country in Southeast-Asia is Nepal. It has one of the highest population growths in the world (2%) and around 80% of the population living on rural areas depending on subsistence farming (World Bank, 2010). The mountainous country receives millions of tourists each year attracted by the mountainous landscape. An initiative introduced by the Nepalese government is the Nepal Tourism Year 2011. This is established with a goal to promote tourism in Nepal and thereby contributing to development of the country. The Nepali newspaper The Himalayan Times opened the news on 14 January 2011 with the title: “The Nepal Tourism Year (NTY)-2011 is being officially marked with fanfare across the country on Friday. Nepal has charted out a plan to bring in a million tourists during the tourism year”. For some mountain livelihoods tourism is a supplement income to their agricultural livelihoods as well as a mean to decrease their vulnerability. On the other side, others do not see any benefits of tourism. Therefore, the level of vulnerability of livelihoods depends on multiple factors depending on the specific context. In the case of Nepal, except for climate change as a threat, different other factors like population pressure which has consequences on food and water supply are (inter) related issues affecting livelihoods in different ways. Thereby, mountain systems in Nepal are characterized by a short growing season and a low yield production with consequently a lower change on stable food security. According to the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (Hunger and Food insecurity, 2008), of the 840 million people who are chronically 10 undernourished, 240 million are rural mountain people living in development and transition countries, showing a disproportionate number (FAO, 2008). Therefore, in the backdrop of an increasingly worldwide threat by climate change factors, social pressures and high fragile mountain systems, mountain livelihoods are increasingly challenged. The combination of the lack of addressing the vulnerability of mountain livelihoods as well as the importance of this ecosystem for the millions of people depending on its resources makes this research a contribution: it generates knowledge about the vulnerability aspects on livelihoods in mountain areas of, in this case, Nepal. In this research, the village of Kagbeni, situated in the Mustang district of Nepal at an altitude of almost 3000 meter was selected as the research area. Research was conducted between February and May 2010 in Nepal including a stay of 1.5 month in the village itself. The main objective of the present research is to gather information concerning the factors determining vulnerability in the livelihoods of the inhabitants of Kagbeni, Nepal. Such information may provide a useful instrument for local and national stakeholders, such as policy makers and governmental agencies, NGOs and civil society organisations with an interest in livelihood vulnerability issues; and local inhabitants. Furthermore, the information gathered in the present research may offer useful suggestions for other studies investigating livelihoods vulnerability in other mountain regions elsewhere in the world. Consistently with the objective aforementioned, the present research is directed to answer the following research question: What are the main factors determining vulnerability of livelihoods in Kagbeni, and what is the influence of the opening up of the village to this vulnerability? In order to better define the scope of this research, four other sub-questions are proposed: sq. 1: What are the main climate related exposures livelihoods have to deal with? sq. 2: What are the main factors that make livelihoods sensitive? sq. 3: How do livelihoods respond to their vulnerability? sq. 4: What are the main constraints and benefits of the opening up of Kagbeni for the livelihoods? Following the present introduction, this research will proceed with a theoretical framework in which existing literature on vulnerability of livelihoods and the relation to several determinants like climate change will be investigated. This is followed by a justification of the used methodology which is explained in chapter 3. In chapter, 4 the background of Nepal as well as the main characteristics of the Mustang district and Kagbeni in particular, will be discussed. This is followed by chapter 5, discussing the characteristics of Kagbeni livelihoods including the socio-demographic profile of households and outlining the main livelihood strategies. Chapter 6 explains the outcomes relating to vulnerability aspects like the perspectives about climate variability and sensitivity determinants including food, water, energy, and health status. This is followed by chapter 7 that discusses the role of tourism and the new road in the livelihoods. Chapter 8 includes a discussion comparing the research results with existing studies. Eventually, a conclusion and recommendations are presented in chapter 9 in order to find an answer on the main question. 11 2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ‘’Livelihoods research remains, I argue, firmly rooted in social systems rather than integrative of risk across social-ecological systems’’ (Adger, 2006, p. 269). According to Carney (1998) livelihoods comprises ‘the capabilities, assets (material social resources), and activities needed for a means of living’ (de Vries, 2011, p.35). An abundance of studies have been written about vulnerability of livelihoods. Most traditional research and studies have been focusing on vulnerability in the context of climate change. Currently, this is followed as a form of research on vulnerability to the impacts of climate change (Adger, 2006). However, this theoretical framework will show that except for climate change related influences, also multiple social and ecological influences shape the vulnerability of livelihoods. To be able to define and link vulnerability, livelihoods and their stressors, in this chapter a selection is made of the literature chosen as most applicable in guiding this study. Paragraph 2.1 gives an introduction on the concept of livelihood vulnerability which is followed by an explanation of the link between climate variability and vulnerability in paragraph 2.2. Paragraph 2.3 gives a review of the existing literature on vulnerability impact assessments. Sequentially, the role of adaptation strategies is being discussed in paragraph 2.4. This chapter ends with a discussion on the influence of the opening up of remote communities to livelihoods in paragraph 2.5. 2.1 How to define livelihood vulnerability? ‘’A livelihood comprises the capabilities, assets (including both material and social resources) and activities required for a means of living. A livelihood is sustainable when it can cope with and recover from stresses and shocks and maintain or enhance its capabilities and assets both now and in the future, while not undermining the natural resource base’’ (Murray, 2001. p.6) The focus of this research is on livelihoods, which means it is directed towards a livelihood approach. The main purpose of a livelihood approach is to try to understand the strategies used by people to sustain an existence and thereby determine the factors that make people’s decisions. These chosen strategies are highly diverse between and within households and communities. Rural livelihoods, on which this research is concentrating, can derive their livelihoods from agriculture, tourism or in form of remittances from migrant labor of absent household members in urban or other rural areas. The central focus of all livelihood approaches is people and their assets. The access to assets (human, social, natural, physical, political and financial assets) determines people’s livelihood and their chosen strategies. External influences like shocks, exposures, seasonal influences or political changes can have impact on asset accumulation. Households with more assets have greater livelihood options which will likely to reduce their vulnerability (Eldis, 2011). As Murray (2001) states: “The objectives of this approach are to identify ‘household’ or family trajectories of accumulation and impoverishment and hence particular structural matrices of vulnerability” Consequently, such an approach can discover positive and negative aspects of these 12 chosen strategies and thereby unfold factors responsible for vulnerability of livelihoods. Multiple definitions of the concept of vulnerability exist, stretching between different disciplines. However, in the majority of formulations the key concepts include the stressors to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity: ‘’Vulnerability is the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to stresses associated with environmental and social change and from the absence of capacity to adapt’’ (Adger, 2006, p. 268). In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Framework on vulnerability, the concept of vulnerability is defined as: “A function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity” (IPPC, 2007). While in Adger’s definition multiple stressors including social change are part of the exposure households have to deal with, in the above definition, the aspect of climate variability to which a livelihood is exposed plays a central role. However, this does not say that the IPPC framework exclude other stressors. It measures not only exposure to different climate variation but also the sensitivity and adaptive capacity. However, since the IPCC is an organization focusing on climate change related issues; its vulnerability assessments are directing towards climate change topics. Moreover, the specific definition used for vulnerability is highly dependent on the work sphere of an organization involved in vulnerability assessment. For example, in the report of the Department for International Development of the United Kingdom (DFID) on Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance (2008), the term vulnerability is used to describe the condition of the people (Cannon et al. 2008, p.4). It includes the characteristics of initial-well being, livelihood and resilience, self-protection and social networks and institutions. This organization focuses on livelihoods affected by disasters and thereby plays a role in disaster reduction. It states that (none) natural hazards must impact groups of people which have different levels of preparedness, capacities to recover and resilience. As different organizations define different conceptualizations of vulnerability, these are often incompatible and cannot be integrated. According to Fussel (2007), this is mainly due to the failure to distinguish between domain and sphere, two independent dimensions of vulnerability factors. These again can be divided between internal and external spheres, which are shown in table 1. Probably the broadest definition referring to the above explanation is the one of Chambers (1989): “Vulnerability here refers to exposure to contingencies and stress, and difficulty in coping with them. Vulnerability thus has two sides: an external side of risks, shocks and stress to which an individual is subject; and an internal side which is defencelessness, meaning a lack of means to cope without damaging loss” (Chambers, 1989). Concluded, it has become clear that no single definition of vulnerability would fit all circumstances, research areas and goals. It has to be highly adapted to the local context. However, the definition of the IPPC framework on vulnerability: “A function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity” (IPPC, 2010) is selected as most useful in order to guide this research. It includes the concepts of climate variability, sensitivity and adaptive capacity which will all be researched out of the perspective of Kagbeni livelihoods. 13 Table 1: Examples for each of the four categories of vulnerability factors classified according to the dimensions sphere and knowledge domain Domain Sphere Socioeconomic Biophysical Internal Household income Topography Social networks Environmental conditions Access to information Land cover National policies Severe storms International aid Earthquakes Economic globalization Sea-level change External Source: Fussel, 2007 2.2 Linking climate variability and vulnerability ‘’Climate change means the shift in the main state of a climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period which can be decades or longer ‘’ (IPCC, 2007) Although recent literature on livelihood vulnerability and its assessment stresses the increasing importance of the concept of social exposures, the concept of climate change still plays an important role. This can be underlined by the current debate on climate change and his impacts (Adger, 2006). The exact link between the concept of climate change and its possible influences on vulnerability of livelihoods will be explained in this chapter. Gyan Chandra, Ambassador of Nepal for the United Nations at the Conference ‘’Reducing Vulnerability due to Climate Change, Climate variability and Extremes (28-02-2011, New York) states: ‘’Now the extreme vulnerability due to the combined effects of climate change, land degradation and loss of biodiversity is wreaking in the LDCs, who do not have the capacity to withstand such effects and who depend so much on natural resources for their livelihoods” “That is the major challenge for us. It is impacting on our ability to reduce poverty and sustainable pattern of livelihood’’ (Bahinipati and Chandra, 2011). Beside this, Bahinipati and Chandra (2011) highlight the fact that many of these LDC’s, including Nepal, are even more vulnerable to climate change because of their fragile ecosystems. Due to snow melting in the Himalayas, glacial lakes could outburst which will lead to loss of property and livelihoods. Also landslides, floods and extreme or untimely rainfall, affecting 14 the monsoon, creates problems. The change in weather patterns can affect food security and agricultural production. Studies of Deschenes and Greenstone (2006) and Watson (1998) mention that agriculture is the sector which is most vulnerable to climate change. Change in climate circumstances influences the main agricultural aspects of input, namely precipitation and temperature. Indirectly, it causes changes in the distribution of crops, can develop livestock diseases, increases the severity of soil erosion and reduces water supply and irrigation (Senbeta, 2009, p.6). Mc Carthy et al. (2001) describe in the IPCC Report 2001 several possible consequences of climate change. Here, climate change is defined as extremes and climate variability, referring to climate change risks in the context of livelihoods. These can be both beneficial or adversely and direct (for example change in the yield of crops) or indirect (extreme events like damage due to flooding). Out of the above literature, it can be concluded that the high number of households depending on agriculture in LDC’s combined with the fact that climate change has the highest impact on this sector, clarifies the link between climate change and vulnerability of livelihoods in LDC’s. Besides, several studies show possible impacts of climate change on livelihoods in different contexts and ecosystems. The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD, 2010) states that it is plausible that mountain ecosystems will see most of the impact of climate changes compared to other ecosystems. Mountain livelihoods could be more vulnerable to climate change impacts since small changes in weather and temperature can turn ice into water which will lead to impacts on agriculture, human well being and especially, water availability. However, limited research is carried out and known about the vulnerability of livelihoods in mountain regions, mainly due to limited accessibility and poor infrastructure. Therefore, ICIMOD (2010), points out the fact that more research is needed concerning vulnerability of mountain livelihoods (Tse-Ring et al. 2010). Out of the above literature, it can be concluded that climate change is a major concept, significant to be taken into account when studying vulnerability of livelihoods. Since climate change is a highly controversial concept and rather vague, concerning the long time period and contextual differences of areas, it seems not a suitable concept for this research. Therefore, the term climate variability as the more suitable concept of climate variability is chosen to guide this research: Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state of climate on al temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events (IPCC, 2007). 2.3 Assessment analysis Studies on vulnerability impact assessments are most often conducted by researching three components defining vulnerability, namely: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Each of these components captures different subcomponents depending on the specific purpose of vulnerability assessment framework and the context in which it is applied (Preston and StaffordSmith, 2004). Although a broad range of different assessment frameworks can be found in the existing researches including the concepts of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, the three components have overarching broad common definitions. Exposure can be conceptualized as climate variability and the exposure of a system to changes in rainfall, temperature and frequencies or intensity of natural hazards like storms, cyclones, floods etc. (Preston and Stafford-Smith, 2004 p.12). The second component of sensitivity includes the responsiveness of a specific system to the exposure. The more sensitive a system is, the more vulnerable a system is towards exposure. Thirdly, 15 adaptive capacity, as shown before, is the system’s ability to adjust climate change (climate variability, extremes), to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with consequences (IPPC, 2010. P.). Adaptive capacity is considered as the most difficult concept to define and is highly adaptable to the specific context and purpose of vulnerability assessment (Adger and Vincent, 2005). For example, Holmelin (2010) who conducted a livelihood study in Jharkot, a Himalayan mountain village in Nepal, uses the concept of flexibility of farming systems in order to refer to the adaptive capacity of a system. This means: “its ability of rapid adjustment and active response in order to cope with changes, which also includes introduction of new practices” (Holmelin, 2010 p.4). These changes can include uncertain variable climate conditions which are highly localized since people live in localities rather than regions. Especially in rugged regions like the Himalayan region the differences between micro climates is big (Holmelin, 2010 p.3). One of the frameworks using these three components to investigate livelihoods vulnerability is the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), developed by Hahn et al. (2008). The LVI was created out of a combination of previous vulnerability frameworks in order to investigate climate change impacts on two communities in Mozambique. By measuring specific indicators, a comparison could be made between the vulnerability of the two communities. The approach differs from previous approaches in the sense that it uses primary data from household surveys by which it does not depend on climate models. In countries characterized by a diverse topography, climate models could cause non reliable outcomes by which differences in vulnerability outcomes are masked (Hahn et. al, 2008). Table 2 shows the content of the LVI, derived from a combination of the IPCC framework definitions on vulnerability. Table 2: Major components in the LVI-IPCC framework: Categorization of major components into contributing factors from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) vulnerability definition for calculation of the LVI-IPCC. IPCC contributing components to vulnerability Major factors Exposure Natural disasters and climate variability Adaptive capacity Socio-demographic profile Livelihood strategies Social networks Sensitivity Health Food Water Source:Hahn et al., 2008 The LVI is flexible in the sense that it is designed in a way in which researchers can redefine and adapt to the needs of the geographical area to suit the goals and needs of their specific vulnerability 16 assessment. In addition, the different determinants can be separated to find out necessary areas that need intervention. Out of different vulnerability assessments, several main similar outcomes can be found concerning the vulnerability of livelihoods including the different components of exposure, adaptive capacity and sensitivity. First of all, when taking the component of exposure into account, studies show that climate variability and natural disasters influence the vulnerability of livelihoods. Paavola (2003) states that due to warming of climate in Tanzania, the growing season will shorten and water availability reduced which consequently will impact the rain-fed agriculture of Tanzania. The main staple of maize yield is decreasing, even as likely to decrease on average by 33 % by the year 2075. Furthermore, this can lead to an increase of diseases, weeds and pests and consequently to crop losses (Paavola, 2003. p.5). Also in Nepal, climate related changes in amongst others CO2 emissions, temperature, and rainfall are likely to decrease maize production, especially in the southern region of the Terai. However, climate simulations show to have a positive effect in the yield of wheat and rice all over Nepal. In the mountain regions of Nepal, decrease in snowfall and rising temperatures seems to have most adverse impacts. Except for agricultural related crop impact, glacier lakes can become unstable and subject to glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) which can cause catastrophic drainage and impact households and their property in lower valleys (Khadka, 2011). The second component of adaptive capacity including the factors of socio-demographic profile, livelihood strategies and social networks (table 1) shows different outcomes. First, the factor sociodemographic profile will be overviewed. This includes the main factors of the head of the household, household size and education. Secondly, the role of social networks will be explained. In the next paragraph 2.4 the role of livelihood strategies including will be discussed. According to the majority of studies a higher proportion of female headed households indicate a higher level of vulnerability. Besides, female-headed households represent the poorest households in human settlements. Several studies like Lacey &Sinai (1996), Hahn (2008) and Senbata (2009) confirm this. Contradictory, taking into account prevailing assumptions, studies of ICIMOD conducted in 1995/1996 and 2003/2004, show that female-headed households in Nepal were less likely to be vulnerable than male-headed households. CBS Nepal interpreted the latter study as such that when a male-headed household is taking over by a female-headed household, the probability of vulnerability is reduced by 19 % in rural areas and 48 % in urban areas. Probable explanations are that a female-headed household receives more remittances since the man works overseas. Secondly, women are targeted in development efforts that specifically empower them and consequently their households. However, these two mentioned arguments are possible explanations since further research is needed to investigate deeper on these issues (Dhoubhabel, 2011, p.10). Taken into account the factor of household size, vulnerability increases with household size. For example, a study by Makoka (2008) on vulnerability to poverty in rural Malawi shows that large households (>5) are far more vulnerable than small households (<5) (Makoka, 2008, p.117). Besides, a study carried out in the Philippines by Orbeta (2005) confirms that families with an average household size of 6.1 are consistently poor while the ones that have a household size of 4.6 are always not poor. Households consisting of a high level of household members show a decline in household savings and a reduction in work participation of mothers. Besides, a higher household size reduces the proportion of children attending school (Orbeta, 2005). The latter aspect is significant in the sense that education is recognized as a mean to move out of poverty. Thereby, it is seen as 17 important in reducing vulnerability of livelihoods (Laigon and Schechter 2003, Buvinić & Geeta Rao Gupta, Dulal et al. 2010). The report of Oxfam America by Cutter et al. (2009) finds that a lower school performance increases the level of vulnerability. Or stated by Smit and Wandel (2005): ‘’education is last main avenue for securing the future consumption of children and also of parents in their old age’’ Furthermore, according to Adger (2003), adaptive capacity, is a social process that requires interaction and collective action on different scales of society. By interaction communities can learn from each other which will help to respond and adapt to extreme weather conditions. They can review present and past activities and adaptation strategies and formulate or develop new ones. On community level, this happens through meetings in which decisions are made regarding community necessities. Groups that are excluded from major decision processes that concern them are the poor and more vulnerable groups since they are not able to express their needs and rights. The activities of institutions like a community determine the livelihood strategies of those groups and consequently their adaptive capacity. Besides, they do often not have access to natural resources in restricted areas as shown by a study of Dulal (2010). After all, households which are restricted from community and social involvement are more vulnerable than ones that do. The above discussed aspects all influence livelihoods in a certain way and cannot be seen separated as the aspects are interconnected and influence each other in different ways. After all, certain groups of households are characterized as more vulnerable as they face more vulnerability aspects. Besides woman and children as main vulnerable groups in agriculture, landless households are considered as one of the most vulnerable groups. Land ownership is of great significance for livelihood options. A lack of landownership causes limited livelihood options which consequently limit the livelihood strategies reducing livelihoods adaptive capacity and eventually increases vulnerability (Dulal, 2010 p. 632). In a livelihood study of Senbeta (2009) conducted among several communities in Ethiopia, the majority of respondents indicated that landless households are the poorest and most vulnerable. Also, a study by Ghimire (2010) conducted in the hill agriculture of Nepal confirms that farmers with less land or no land are the most vulnerable. They are not able to cultivate sufficient food to be food secured all year. Besides, they do not or have less opportunities to reach markets as their production is small scale and therefore hardly or not sufficient to sell on markets. Consequently, landless households see low employment diversification and have low access to markets. Since they have less employment opportunities and are disconnected from markets, services and facilities like social networks and training programs are often beyond their reach. To cope with their vulnerability, major alternatives are paid labor in agriculture and construction and unskilled or semi skilled work overseas (Ghimeri, 2010, p. 228). 18 2.4 The role of adaptation strategies This paragraph will elaborate further on the role of adaptation strategies including livelihood diversification and strategies and responses to vulnerability. Several studies show that households use a range of methods to adapt to climate variability as well as to other environmental or social influences (e.g. population pressure, land degradation). According to the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) adaptation means the adjustments in human and natural systems to respond to actual or expected climate change impacts (FAO, 2009). Adaptation differs from mitigation in the sense that it aims to adjust and deal with the impacts of a process (like climate variability) while mitigation tries to reduce these impacts. Adaptation is a long term solution since it tries to sustain the existing livelihood by adjusting to the changing circumstances (de Vries, 2011, p. 36). Adaptation is linked to different adaptation strategies and the concept adaptive capacity. Adaptive capacity is the system’s ability to adjust climate change (climate variability, extremes), to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with consequences (IPPC, 2007). A division can be made between planned adaptation and autonomous adaptation. The first includes strategic implementation of adaptations and policy measures taken to increase the adaptive capacity of a system. This can be the implementation of early warning systems for floods and droughts, development of irrigation systems and water storage facilities and emergency aid (Senbeta, 2009). On the other side and on another scale, autonomous adaptations are adaptation strategies on the level of an individual farmer or household. To be able to sustain their livelihood, the following adaptations strategies are used by households, depending on different contexts: - Diversification of livelihoods like (seasonal) migration, off-farm employment, crop diversification (Ghimire et al. 2010, p. 228), raising livestock (Hahn et al., 2008, p. 11) - Increasing productivity and crop intensification, e.g. irrigation - Food, crop and seed storage (Hahn et al., 2008. p. 13). - Eating less food and reducing purposes (Senbeta, 2009). - Social interconnectedness (relatives) (Senbeta, 2009). Livelihood strategy is another important concept connected to or overlapping with adaptation strategies. The difference with an adaptation strategy is that a livelihood strategy is not per se a response to climate variability or other social or environmental influences while an adaptation strategy is. It includes the various activities taken by a household to generate a living which can be a longstanding tradition. However, over time, livelihoods strategies are adaptive according to the specific opportunities and constraints it responds to. For example, in a process described as deagrarianisation in Sub-Saharan Africa during the 90’s, 60-90 % of the rural households derived their income from non-farming sources while this was approximately 40 % in the 1980’s. Due to different reasons like the establishment of structural adjustment programs, the decline in support for farmers 19 and reduction of agricultural trade combined with new opportunities, the longstanding agricultural incomes changed for a great part to other income sources (Murray, 2001). A division is made by Scoones (1998) and Swift (1998) to divide rural livelihood strategies. These are classified as agricultural extensification and intensification, livelihood diversification and migration. Extensification and intensification can be respectively the increase of productivity and the use of improved irrigation systems. Migration is a typical mode of diversification for the rural poor and can be divided in permanent and seasonal migration whereas the first one is often a total change in livelihood strategy as another way of living is chosen in a different context. In case of seasonal migration, off-farm employment, outside the community is often managed so that the members of a household who work outside the community for a certain period can participate in the farm work during the busiest seasons (Brogaard and Seaquist, 2005. p. 5). Livelihood diversification seems to be one of the most important adaptation strategies in order to sustain the existing livelihood and adapt to climate variability and other environmental and social pressures. Table 3 shows different diversification strategies on household level. Table 3: Household-level diversification strategies: NR-based and non NR-based Source: Ellis, 2000 Households that derive income of more than one source are likely to be less vulnerable than households that rely on one source of income. Especially in case of climate variability, households having besides their agricultural existence an income outside the agricultural business are better able to resist climate variability that can harm their livelihood existence. The example of deagrarianisation in Africa during the late ‘90’s shows the idea of diversification of livelihoods over time. Another clear example of livelihood diversification can be found by Nyasimi et al. (2007) who conducted a research in western Kenya to investigate livelihood strategies among two groups, the Luo and Kipsigis who are both intensely active in livelihood diversification. A primary shift that can be seen is a shift from agricultural to non-agricultural activities. Shift in the type of assets of 20 households, especially land that degrading are causes of searching for other means of existences outside the agricultural spheres (Nyasimi et al., 2007). In sum, this section shows there exist a range of concepts connected to adaptation strategies which can be combined, overlapped or distinguished between each other. In order to investigate the different adaptation strategies and livelihood strategies taken by Kagbeni livelihoods to respond to their vulnerability, the broad term of responses of households to their vulnerability is chosen. This seems to be most applicable to answer the sub question: How do households respond to their vulnerability? 2.5 Opening up of remote communities ‘’The opening up of regions in the high mountains for motorized traffic has led worldwide to consequences concerning the penetration of these formerly remote areas ‘’ (Kreuzmann, 1991 p. 711). A study of Kreuzmann (1991) researches the impact of road construction on mountain societies. It includes a case study of The Karakoram highway, the highest international road in the world at 4,693 meters connecting China with Pakistan. In 1974, this connection opened up the remote valley of Hunza in Pakistan, a mountainous area with a dry continental climate depending on irrigation fed agriculture. For the Hunza valley and its inhabitants the opening up by the road had huge consequences influencing livelihoods in different aspects. A measure like the Karakoram highway is induced form outside without taking into account historical trade patterns, regional planning, mobility and job creation. Therefore, analyzing the effects of such a measure is very interesting (Grotzbach, 1976). The consequences of the opening up of the Hunza Valley by the Karakoram highway have been diverse. First of all, the economic distance has been shortening. This has lead to more effective administrative organization and political control since communication costs decreased. Transport costs were cut by 50% and the exchange relations between communities improved (Kreuzmann, 1991, p.728). A second consequence is the increase of shops opened in the Hunza Valley. Due to jeep transport livelihoods could get continuous supply in order to run business. Before the road construction the main trade centre of Gilgit could be reached in three days from Central Hunza, nowadays this is reduced to three hours. However, transport by bus takes about 60-80% of the average income of a labourer (16-20 NRs) which remains a constraint (Kreuzmann, 1991, p.728). Another consequence is the increase of external programs implemented in the area like the ‘’Northern Area Works Organization’’ which has been implementing diverse projects concerning education, health care, food programs and rural development programs. Also, due to the road more food like fruit, sugar, meat etc. became available although still for a high price. These products can be afforded by remittances derived from migrants: ‘’With growing out migration there are at present only a very few households in Hunza which can rely only on agriculture’’ (Kreuzmann, p.733). The above described study is one of the examples responsible for the opening up of a previous remote area, in this case a mountain community. Other factors responsible for the opening up of 21 remote areas and communities can be the access to internet and telephone communication as well as the development of tourism. Several studies are analyzing influences of tourism and ways to develop sustainable tourism. Tourism influences the ecology, culture and economy of regions in different ways. In general tourism brings economic prosperity to livelihoods which have been excluded from it before. In some Alpine regions tourism has strengthen mountain economies. Messerli (1983) showed that in parts of Wallis Switzerland, 50% of the jobs were in the tourism sector in the 1980’s. This is mainly a supplementary income to agricultural production. Besides, this development brought improved skills and technological development with spill over effects. Some find the development of tourism in the Alp a success while others like Brugger (1984) indicate it as a threat to the Alpine economy and a direction towards dependency (Singh, 2008 p.69). On the other hand, tourism could cause ecological and cultural heritage threat. Due to tourism, in the Himalayan region, the poaching of the rare musk deer and monal peasant are not uncommon (Green, 1980). Ski areas in the Alpine regions have a disastrous effect on the environment of the regions (Singh, 2008. p.69). A study by Singh (2008) about sustainable tourism in the Himalaya, in the Kulu Valley of the Himachal Pradesh, shows that tourism has been threatening the environmental and physical landscape of Manali and above all has created a increasing wealth gap between investors and inhabitants not affiliate in tourism business (Singh, 2008). Also, ICIMOD (2008) states that tourism in mountain communities is both an economic driver but at the same time affecting the environmental quality of mountains and highlands as tourism is often a heavy burden on mountain resources. However, a research conducted by Ashley (2000) on the impact of tourism on rural livelihoods in Namibia shows that tourism decreases vulnerability. Since all rural households in Namibia are vulnerable to droughts due to low and unreliable rainfall, drought proofing is of significance to reduce vulnerability. Tourism is an important factor to reduce this vulnerability functioning in two different ways. Firstly, cash income generated by tourism does not decrease or slump in times of drought. Secondly, tourism can be a source of collective income used to spend on supporting the community to cope with drought. As becomes clear, tourism has two different side of a coin. It creates negative and positive consequences, depending on the context and type of tourism. It will never create only positive or negative consequences while some groups benefit and others do not. ‘’Given its average growth rate in many LDC countries, tourism is viewed at local and international level as a route to broader development and shared growth and, as a consequence, is included in the Poverty Reduction Strategy papers (PRSPs) of more than 80 % of low income countries’’ (Meyer, 2010). This saying confirms the important role of tourism in many Least Developed Countries (LSC’s). However, the impact tourism has on local or national level depends on the sort of tourism and its implementation. Different ways to implement tourism are visible and developed to reduce the negative aspects of tourism and to develop poor societies or communities. A key concept, created during the past decades and a possible tool for poverty reduction and development is Pro-Poor tourism (PPT). The main goal is reducing poverty and increasing the level of equity thereby trying to reach the poorest. Therefore, intervention strategies to be used are economic benefits, non-financial livelihood impacts and enhanced participation and partnership. However, outcomes show, in for example a PPT program in South Africa, that the created employment by tourism does not reach the poorest of society because of their lack of skills, experience and foreign languages. On the other side, although many of the poorest segments of society are not directly involved in tourism, many are engaged in agriculture which could link to indirect involvement in tourism. Therefore: Tourism in fact is seen as providing 22 good potential for livelihood diversification into the non-farm economy (Meyer, 2010, p. 174).Livelihood diversification by linking agriculture to tourism could be a huge opportunity for especially the poorest groups. 2.6 Conclusion In this chapter, several theories and assessment analysis regarding vulnerability of livelihoods were discussed. It has become clear that there exist many different definitions of the concept of vulnerability as well as multiple ways to asses and link vulnerability to livelihoods. The particular definitions and strategies used to assess vulnerability of households are dependent on the specific context as well as the goal and needs of the specific assessment and the organization, institutions or persons researching it. In general, a main overarching finding is that the concept of vulnerability is linked to exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, which is among others used in the framework of the Livelihood Vulnerability Index-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (LVI-IPCC) framework. Exposure can be seen as climate variability or extreme climate to which livelihoods are exposed. This is of main importance in the current global hot debate on climate change and her impacts. Especially agricultural based communities are highly dependent on climate input factors like snow and sun and will be expected to see most direct impact of climate related exposures. Except for these climate related exposure several other environmental and social pressures can be an exposure for livelihoods. For example, the opening up of remote communities can influence households and their vulnerability in several ways. Tourism can create job opportunities and therefore broaden livelihood strategies. On the other side, it can create environmental problems and therefore increase the vulnerability of livelihood. Sensitivity to different exposures like climate variability can be researched by exploring the components of health, food and water and the status of these components among households. In this, adaptive capacity towards exposures determines part of the vulnerability of households. The socio-demographic profile as well as the used livelihood strategies and social networks are components of adaptive capacity and can be used as factors protecting households and their livelihoods against exposures by making them less vulnerable. The literature clearly indicates that a higher livelihood diversification can make households less vulnerable as more opportunities to create a livelihood are available. The exploration of livelihood strategies is of main significance in this sense. For example, a household that derives income for agriculture and tourism a more means to protect against vulnerability factors than a households only depending on agriculture. However, the context in which a research about vulnerability of household’s takes place highly determines in how far and what factors determine the vulnerability of households among a community. In this research, households and their livelihoods in the agricultural society of Kagbeni , Mustang district of Nepal is assessed. In this context of a harsh environment combined with a mainly agricultural existence, the proceeded literature provides a guideline in this thesis in order to investigate vulnerability factor among households of Kagbeni. Besides, it gives probable interesting findings which could be compared with research findings which will be presented in the next chapter. Therefore, in chapter 8, a discussion will take place, reflecting and referring to this chapter on existing literature and theories. 23 3 METHODOLOGY This chapter will discuss the methodology of this research which is characterized by a combination of theory and practical experiences. First, a conceptual model and hypotheses are presented and explained. This is followed by an explanation of the research design including the chosen sample in paragraph 3.2. Paragraph 3.3 gives the main steps that have been taken during the research including the negative and positive aspects of these steps. Eventually the constraints faced during the research are discussed in paragraph 3.4. 3.1 Conceptual model and hypotheses In order to be able to design a conceptual model and hypothesis for assessing livelihood vulnerability and linking it to the opening up of Kagbeni, the existing literature on livelihood vulnerability as well as the researcher’s own field experiences will be used. The Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) combined with the factors from the Intergovernmental Panel in Climate Change (IPCC) is chosen to be the most suitable guideline for underlying this research as to be able to answer the research questions. This approach is highly adaptable to local context which is deemed to be important for this livelihood research in Kagbeni village. In contrast to several other vulnerability approaches, the LVI-IPCC framework does not depend on regional climate projections and external influences like topographical, infrastructural and socio-economic development seem to be highly important factors to take into account (Hahn et al. 2008, p. 2). It measures and defines vulnerability by the main components shown in table 2. Besides, to evaluate climate change impact in the context of multiple stressors that reduce adaptive capacity, many of which are not related to climate or climate change; vulnerability assessment is most helpful (Desanker & Justice 2001). First of all the main concepts of exposure, adaptive capacity and sensitivity were selected which has to be researched but would be adapted to the local context of Kagbeni. During this first phase, out of interviews with main stakeholders it became clear that energy related challenges play a main role in the livelihoods of Kagbeni. Availability of wood, gas, electricity and the fact that sun panels are a new development strategy, originated from ACAP, are therefore included in the research. Therefore, the sub factor energy is supplemented to the aspects of sensitivity. Besides, during the first phase of the fieldwork, after conduction of interviews with stakeholders and focus groups, the importance of multiple stressors and external influences in consideration with vulnerability of livelihoods became clear. The main external influences playing a central factor in livelihoods of Kagbeni seemed the opening up of Kagbeni by the new road which was constructed in 2006, and tourism. Therefore, these two factors were included in the research and the conceptual model. Livelihood vulnerability is the central concept in this research which can be seen in the conceptual model. This livelihood vulnerability depends on different factors which are highly contextual. The factors defined as main factors influencing livelihood vulnerability chosen out of the literature are 24 exposure, adaptive capacity and sensitivity. These factors are defined by different sub factors originating from the LVI-IPCC framework but adapted to the context of Kagbeni as explained above. Figure 1: Factors affecting livelihood vulnerability in Kagbeni The main hypotheses which can be found in the literature and traced back in the conceptual model are: a) A higher level of exposures leads to a higher level of livelihood vulnerability b) A higher level of adaptive capacity leads to a lower level of livelihood vulnerability c) A higher level of sensitivity leads to a higher level of livelihood vulnerability The amount and intensity of natural hazards and climate variability influence the vulnerability of livelihoods in a way that the higher the level of these physical features how more vulnerable livelihoods in that area become. Exposure means threat to agricultural production or other physical aspects like infrastructure or housing. When livelihoods have the capacity to adapt or mitigate to these exposures, so that damage is being reduced, their vulnerability becomes less. Adaptation strategies play a role in this; this is part of the concept of livelihood strategies which can include a range of diversification strategies. There could be even benefits derived from adaptation like the potential of growing new crops. For this research it is chosen to determine the main responses of livelihoods thereby referring to adaptive capacity. Besides, in this research the capacity itself would 25 not be measured and is therefore of non importance in this research. Eventually, when households have good and sufficient access to water, food and energy resources, their vulnerability becomes less. The latter can be defined as the concept of sensitivity of livelihoods. Since every household or community is into a certain extent vulnerable to different influences it is considered that the livelihoods of Kagbeni are vulnerable to a certain extent as well. The aim of this research is not to measure the level of vulnerability but to investigate what are the main factors responsible for the vulnerability of livelihoods in Kagbeni. Therefore, the above hypotheses, selected out of the literature on impact assessments and shown to be tested multiple times, will not be tested in this research. However, the hypotheses could be a helpful tool in anticipating on the outcomes of this research in the context of the livelihoods in Kagbeni. Besides, in this research it is not useful to measure the extent of vulnerability since vulnerability assessment is most useful when compared to other assessments and this research does not include this. Also, vulnerability assessment including the measurement of the extent of vulnerability is most useful when measured at different moments in time while this research took only place during three months (Adger, 2006, p.276). The conceptual model includes the role of the opening up of Kagbeni to the outside world, defined in the concepts the new road construction and tourism. Both concepts influence the vulnerability of livelihoods and therefore the main aspects of adaptive capacity and sensitivity. Which role these concepts play is the questions that will be researched. Accordingly, the following hypotheses are being proposed: d) Tourism does have a positive influence on vulnerability of livelihoods e) The new road has a positive influence on vulnerability of livelihoods These positive influences on livelihood vulnerability indicate a decrease of the vulnerability of livelihoods. 3.2 Research design For the field work, the village of Kagbeni in the Mustang district of Nepal was selected. This village is the principal village of Kagbeni Village District Committee (VDC) consisting of the six villages. The main reasons to choose the village of Kagbeni as research area and not the whole Kagbeni VDC are: - The relative high population of Kagbeni compared to the other smaller villages of Kagbeni VDC. - The function of Kagbeni as service town of the VDC including a primary and secondary school, a health centre and ACAP check point for entering Upper Mustang. - The historical and current situation as border village between Lower Mustang and Upper Mustang as a trade and hub town. It has been located on one of the most important trade routes of Nepal. - The situation of the village on the new constructed road and ACAP trekking route. 26 - The cultural and ethnical background of the village consisting of mainly Tibetan originated inhabitants. - The fact that there has not been previous considerable research about vulnerability of livelihoods in the village of Kagbeni. Focus groups and their content were outlined after the first exploratory phase of the research and had to be consisted of three groups of villagers covering three main topics. The first group consisted out of three villagers of the older generation having experience as village leaders and broad knowledge about Kagbeni. The main topics were the geographical flows of goods, persons and materials going from and coming to Kagbeni. Those focus groups were assisted by Mister Duru, village leader, lodge owner, and translator. The latter since Tibetan and Nepali was spoken and therefore translation to English was needed. The main aim of the focus groups was to gather perspectives of villagers and to collect information about the main developments in the village. This information was needed to determine the content of questionnaires. The second focus group consisted of a mixed group of villagers. The topics for discussion were water availability, the new road construction and tourism. The third focus group was tourism but did contain a lot of additional information on other topics. This focus group was chosen to be held among a group of woman and a group of men to get different insights of different genders about the same topics. The second and third focus groups were held on the bridge in the centre of the village. Here, woman and men often gather together at the end of the day to talk and enjoy the warm of the last sunshine. After interviews with stakeholders and the gathering of statistical information, it became clear that among the 100 households in Kagbeni there exists a division between indigenous and non-indigenous households, ethnical groups, and households owning a lodge and ones that do not. Non indigenous households are originating from neighbouring districts like Dolpo, Manang or are Tibetan refugees. They are mainly secluded of private land ownership, forest access rights and the right to attend village meetings in which decisions about communal interests are made. These characteristics seemed important to include in the research as being able to make a possible comparison between these groups. After this consideration, a stratified sample was chosen to get an as most representative outcome as possible. Table 4 shows the characteristics of Kagbeni households. Table 4: Kagbeni household characteristics Characteristics Number Households total 100 Indigenous households 64 Non indigenous households 36 Household with lodge owners 20 Household without lodge owner 80 Source: ACAP, 2010 27 First of all, the decision was made to conduct 30 household interviews. This amount was considered as desirable to get a representative amount of data as well as considered to be suitable in the time framework of the researchers. Intentionally, a division between ethnic groups was made but later skipped since this did not add any value for a more representative outcome due to the small amount of different ethnical groups. The other two characteristics of indigenous and non indigenous households and households owning a lodge and households not owning a lodge, were included in the sample. Characteristics of the final sample are shown in table 5. The amount of 30 interviews was reached. Table 5: Sample composition Characteristics Number of households Female 16 Male 14 Indigenous 18 Non indigenous 12 Lodge owner 7 Non lodge owner 23 Considering a stratified sample in which one third of all characteristics have to be included, the amount of lodge owners does fit with the sample framework. Only, the amount of indigenous households is slightly lower than the original sample framework. Besides, not considered as main requirement but considered as a positive outcome is the fact that approximately half of the respondents are female and half male. Altogether, the gathered data seems to be a good base to start to analyze data and get representative outcomes. 3.3 Research constraints Every research, to a certain extent, involves constraints and limitations which can counteract or delay research expectations. This fieldwork n Nepal does as well. This subchapter gives an outline of the main constraints faced during the research. The data collection through interviews and focus group discussions highly depended on the level of cooperation of the villagers of Kagbeni. Before the start of the fieldwork the researchers were skeptical about the success of cooperation since the villagers of Kagbeni are highly involved in tourism and therefore could see the researchers as tourists. Trust had to be created in the small 28 village as to get more confidence of the villagers. This worked out well and villagers got used to the appearance of the researchers. However, after successful focus groups and group discussions the conduction of interviews with villagers by one on one conversation seemed slightly more difficult. Several reasons were underlying this. Time is a constraint as villagers are mostly busy, working on the fields or in household choirs. However, time could be found between 4 pm and 7 pm, which seemed the most suitable time to visit villagers for an interview. Besides, if the interview took too long the respondents were getting bored, so the researchers limited the interview time up to one hour per respondent. A constraint faced during the first interviews was that respondents did not see the importance or did not have the knowledge to supply statistical information about their income or yield of agriculture. These problems were solved by slightly adjusting the questionnaire after the first few interviews. Sometimes, gathered information showed contradictory outcomes. This was mainly due to political and cultural background of the interviewed people. Caste systems as well as languages issues of Tibetan and Nepalese language in the village of Kagbeni were topics that had to be taken with caution since different subjective information was spread. However, by crosschecking these outcomes information became clear and more objective. This contradictory information was seen back in information provided by several informants about the amount of inhabitants, schoolchildren and lodges. To gather most reliable information, sources were crosschecked and information asked multiple times. Besides, it became clear that winter migration played a role in the different gathered statistics about the amount of inhabitants in Kagbeni. Also, defining clear concepts like lodges and tea houses seemed to be an important requirement to gather the right information. However, local statistics of Kagbeni, regional statistics of the Mustang district, and national statistics of Nepal, was often not up to date. Recent data could hardly be found, as even the CBS Nepal has in some cases only data of 10 years ago. However, data was necessary in this research; therefore for this research the provided data was used but the above mentioned constraint has to be taken into account for the reader. 29 4 CONTEXTUAL BACKGROUND 4.1 Nepal Nepal, with a population of almost 30 million (UNDP, 2010) is one of the countries situated in the Himalaya region and for a large part dependent on climate-sensitive sectors like rain-fed cultivation. Almost 75% of the total population is depended on agriculture which is mainly self subsistence and generates approximately 33% of the GDP of Nepal (World Bank, 2011). Other main income sources of the country are tourism and remittances. Although over the last decade Nepal has seen a progress in reducing poverty, still 24.7% of the population lives under the poverty line of USD 1 a day. Nepal ranks at place 57 on the world wide poverty line index (CIA, 2011). The country can be divided in three geographical areas: the low-lying fertile alluvial plain in the south named the Terai region, the Hilly region ranging in altitude between 600 meters and 3000 meters, and the Himalaya region in the northern part, ranging in altitude from 3000 meters up to 8848 meters (see map 1). Map 1: Nepal elevation zones Source: Shrestra (2006) Because of these three different geographical regions, climate conditions vary too a great extent. The Tarai and the Hilly regions are mainly depended on monsoon fed agriculture while the Himalayan region is more limited as such that it is depended on glacier fed agriculture. For the greater part the country has a vulnerable mountain eco-system which makes the country exposed to flooding and droughts. These natural hazards can make that agricultural productivity is declining, in 30 some parts more than others due to the complex topography. Consequently, food security, especially in mountain regions, is an increasing problem. Rural communities are finding different measures to cope and adapt to be able to sustain and reduce risk to climate change factors (Lama and Devkota, 2009, p.65). An example of the positive influence of climate variability and adaptation to an increasing temperature can be found in a field study by Morkel and Park (2000) on apple farming in Marpha in the Kali Kandaki Valley of Nepal. They state that due to changing climate conditions, apple farming has been increasingly favorable over the last decennia (Morkel and Park, 2000). Except for the huge diversification in topographical characteristics the country hosts a diverse group of inhabitants among which 92 languages are spoken. Generally said, the people from the northern Himalaya region follow the Tibetan religion while the inhabitants of the Terai region are oriented towards the Indian Gangetic plain in which Hinduism is the main religion. In total, approximately 81% of the inhabitants are practicing Hinduism, 10.7 % Buddhism and 4.2% Islam while the remainder consists of among others Christianity (CBS Nepal, 2001). One of the 75 districts in Nepal is Mustang, part of the Himalaya area, in which the research village of Kagbeni is situated (see map 2). The next chapter will explain the characteristics of this district in more detail. Map 2: Nepal, with the Mustang district marked in red Source: Holmelin, 2009 Referring to the importance of remittances for Nepal, Thieme (2005) states that three studies conducted in the Western Development region in Nepal show that 15% of the population temporarily migrates out of Nepal to search for work (Thieme, 2005, p.23). By far, the largest group goes to India, followed by the Golf States, other Asian countries and oversees destinations like the USA and Europe. The Western, Mid Western and Far Western regions of Nepal seeing the highest Human Poverty indexes of Nepal as well as the highest number of migrants going to India. It is 31 assumed that migrants with the lowest socio-economic background opt for India and the higher off migrants for the Golf States. Besides, India is the most accessible country and there is an important history in migration between the two countries. Adding the similarities in languages and culture this makes India the first oversee destination for migrants from Nepal. Push factors like minimizing risks, unemployment, lack of financial capital, seasonality of agriculture production, education for children and medication are drivers of migration (Thieme, 2008). A study by Thieme (2008) about Nepalese migrants originating from the Far Western Region working in Delhi shows that the main reason to migrate is the unavailability of sufficient food during the whole year. Normally men migrate and woman occasionally visit India for medication or educational purposes. Figure 2 shows the different jobs carried out by Nepalese male migrants in Delhi, India. Figure 2: Jobs by Nepalese migrants in Delhi, 2008 Source: Thieme, 2008 Statistics of Nepal CBS (1981) show that 75% of migrants originated from the Western mountain region are employed in service. The other 25% counts for trade, agriculture and education. In a study of Ghimire et al. (2010) on household level vulnerability in the hill agriculture of Nepal, main outcomes were that the majority (63%) is highly vulnerable. The indicators low employment diversification, low aces to land and low access to markets, social networks and agricultural training are the main constraints of high vulnerable farms. Low access to irrigation systems, low-crop livestock integration and low access to market and social networks are the main constraints to moderately vulnerable farms. For the less vulnerable farms the main constraint is low crop and livestock integration (Ghimire et al. 2010). According to CBS Nepal (2005), of the total households in Nepal 9.7% are female-headed. This differs per region as the Mid Western region has the lowest proportion (3%) of female headed households and the Western region the highest (19%). Among the ecological zones, the mountain regions contain the highest proportion of female-headed households with 11.62% (CBS Nepal. 2005). 32 4.2 Mustang district “Today, because of hard work and dedicated efforts of the Tibetan refugee community, authentic Tibetan culture now survives only in exile and a few places like Mustang, which have had long historical and cultural ties with Tibet” (Schuurbeque et. al., The Dalai Lama, 1995, p.2). The Mustang district is situated in the north-west of Nepal and part of the Western Development region. It shares the border with the Tibet Autonomous Region in China and is one of the Tibetan speaking areas of Nepal although the area contains a mix of Hinduism and Buddhism related religions. The region can be characterized as mountainous with steep relief with the Kali Gandaki River, running from north to south through the region. The Kali Gandaki Gorge is the world deepest and fossils from the Tethys Sea, dating back 60 million years ago, are scattered around in the river valley. The area contains the world 7th highest and 10th highest mountains, the Dhaulagiri of 8137 meters and the Annapurna of 8161 meters (NTNC, 2008, p. 5).Mustang be divided into Lower Mustang and Upper Mustang, the latter being the former Kingdom of Mustang, and is located in the rain shadow of the Annapurna massive. Therefore it is highly dependent on glacier melt water and receives less than 200 mm rain a year. The climate can be characterized by strong wind and sun radiation and has recorded a maximum temperature of 26 degrees Celsius in summer while in winter it can be as low as -20 degrees Celsius. Due to the semi- arid high mountain environment there is a short growing season and subsistence agriculture production has historically been complemented by seasonal migration. In 1977 Lower Mustang was opened up for tourism with the establishment of a trekking route by the Annapurna Conservation Area Project. This created jobs affiliated with tourism like hotel business and porters (Holmelin, 2010). Mustang hosts a population of 14981 inhabitant of which Lower Mustang has 3200 households compared to 1200 households in Upper Mustang (Nepal Population Census, 2001). This research will focus on the village of Kagbeni just situated in Lower Mustang on the border with Upper Mustang. Compared to other mountain districts like neighbouring Dolpo, Mustang is better off. This is mainly due to the history of transnational trade and the development of tourism over the last 30 years which has contributed to socio-economic improvement (Holmelin, 2010). Upper Mustang takes in a unique place as it has been a Tibetan Kingdom until 1950 when the Chinese overran Tibet. Shortly after, Upper Mustang became part of Nepal. It can be characterized by a strong continental climate with strong winds which make it a semi-desert landscape. Survival is hard due to extreme weather circumstances and the situation in a rain shade area in which irrigation is necessary to feed crops and animals. For century’s traders coming from Mustang and the bordering district of Dolpo travelled with yaks, cows, sheep and goats packed with grain, rice and barley to places on the Tibetan border. These goods were exchanged for salt which was eventually brought down to places along the Kali Gandaki Valley like Kagbeni, Marpha and Tatopani. Only from 1991, when parliamentary democracy was introduced in Nepal, Upper Mustang was opened for foreigners (Schuurbeque and Marullo, 1995). Although the salt trade has almost disappeared, few other forms of trade are still apparent which will be shown in subchapter 4.3. 33 Map 3: Mustang district Source: NTNC, 2008, p.10 While Upper Mustang hosts a mainly pure Tibetan population, the majority of inhabitants of Lower Mustang are originated of the ethnicity Thakalis .The national census of Nepal in 2001 showed an amount of 12973 Thakalis living in the Mustang district. The ethnic group consists of many different clans. Their religion is Buddhism and they are part of the Tibet-Barman group which also belongs to the Gurungs, mainly living in the neighbouring Manang district. Originally the Thakalis are businessman. (National Museum of Mountaineering, Pokhara, 11-02-2011). Unique about the Thakalis is their relative high literacy rate of 66% compared to 34% of the Gurung group. However, other sources indicate different statistics: according to statistics derived from ACAP, Mustang consists for the majority out of Gurungs followed by Thakalis. A clarification of the difference in statistics is probably the fact that there exists a mixed and increasingly overlapping diversity of 34 ethnicities in the Mustang district. While Thakalis are originated from the Mustang district, Gurungs have migrated from Mongolia in the 6th century. Besides, smaller groups like Bista & Thakuri have settled in the area. Therefore, it is a complex web of different ethnicity groups practicing Buddhism in the form of Tibetan Buddhism as well as Buddhism. Urothody & Larsen (2010) conducted an assessment about vulnerability of two villages in Mustang, namely Lete and Kunjo. These villages are situated in Lower Mustang, approximately 15km south of Kagbeni. The study shows the percentages of female headed households, which are approximately 16.7% and 36.7% (Urothody & Larsen, 2010. p. 12). 4.3 Kagbeni Kagbeni village is the largest village of Kagbeni Village Development Committee (VDC) which consists of six settlements and hosts a summer population of 1224 inhabitants (NTNC, 2001). In this chapter the socio- geographical characteristics, the political system and the importance of religion in Kagbeni village will be explained. Sources are originated from literature as well as gathered during the fieldwork. Kagbeni is situated amongst high peaks ranging up to the Nilgiri of 6940 meter (see picture 1). Picture 1: Kagbeni within the background the Nilgiri Mountain 35 4.3.1 Socio- Geographical context Kagbeni village is situated on an altitude of 2820 meter, on the crossroads of the two rivers Kali Gandaki and Dzon Chu (see map 2) and is the border village between Lower and Upper Mustang. The location of the village on the fluvial plain of the Dzon Chu has several natural advantages for farmland as well as settlement. It is situated in an irrigated oasis in the middle of a desert like mountain landscape. Whereas this offers favourable topographical factors, the village lies in an open landscape with a lack of forest cover. Due to the north-south situation of the Kali Gandaki valley and the situation of Kagbeni in this channel of air it is exposed to strong winds (Pohle & Willibald Haffner, 2001. p. 182). ). Characterized by this semi-arid climate, the main traditional and current livelihood activity is irrigation fed agriculture which is depended on glacier melt water and snow. Therefore, weather circumstances and climate variability are of main importance for the livelihoods of Kagbeni. Most detailed climate statistics were found in the metrological station in Johmson, 7.5 km south of Kagbeni, these will be further discussed in section 6.1.3. According to several village leaders, the population exists of approximately 400 inhabitants in summer season while in the winter season this is less due to seasonal migration. The amount of households is 100 of which 64 households are indigenous of Kagbeni while the other 34 households originating from the neighbouring districts, villages or Tibet. Tourism influence can be seen in the 20 hotels, Kagbeni village hosts (village leader Kagbeni, 2011). According to collected data of census figures by Pohle & Willibald Haffner, (2001) the population records in 1981 were a population of 239 inhabitants in 53 households. In 1993, this was 326 inhabitants in 65 households. An increase in population was mentioned by several respondents. According to the village leaders, the population has grown over the last years because more people moved to Kagbeni to find work in tourism affiliated jobs. Also, the number of schoolchildren has increased due to amongst others awareness of the need of education amongst villagers of surrounding areas. Except for the movements of people coming to Kagbeni village, diverse geographical distribution flows are apparent to and from Kagbeni village which can be seen in figure 3. These flows have economical, educational and religious purposes. A prominent feature is that the cities of Pokhara and Kathmandu are the most important hubs for trade to and from Kagbeni. Since these are the biggest service centres of Nepal this is not surprising. Besides, the new road construction has improved accessibility. A probable most significant flow from Kathmandu and Pokhara to Kagbeni is the supply of food and goods. Improved accessibility has changed the availability of goods and food for inhabitants of Kagbeni. Geographical flows coming and going to the neighbouring Manang district are among the least apparent flows. The main constraint is the mountainous landscape which makes transport possibilities limited. An exception is the nearby religious place of Muktinath which is the only place of significance in the Manang district having active relations with Kagbeni. The main flow between these two places is of religious purpose namely pilgrimage of Buddhist and Hindus. Besides, this has created an increase in the demand of transport means, food and goods for both villages. 36 Map 4: Village of Kagbeni Source: Pohle, 2008 37 Compared to 25 years ago, a siginificant change in flows is the trade between Upper Mustang and Kagbeni. Until that time the Trans-Himalayan trade existed and salt carried by yaks and brought from Tibet was exchanged for rice and species from India as well as for buckwheat and other goods from villages down the Kali Gandaki Valley. Except for some small business of salt from China used for yak butter and feed for goats this trade has disappeared. Different political and economical reasons are responsible for the extinct trade. One of the most important reasons is the cheap and qualitative better salt supply from India which has overruled the salt supply from Tibet. This Indian salt contains the mineral of iodine which is important for human health and lacking in Tibetan salt. Due to an initiative of the Nepalese government concerning health improvement, families are supplied with one kg salt a year which contains iodine. Furthermore, as Kagbeni is the service centre of Kagbeni VDC it receives money from the government and has to spread it among the VDC and spend on development purposes like irrigation systems and education. Currently, the VDC receives 25 Lakhs (2500.000 NR) a year. 38 Figure 3: Geographical distribution of materials, human and financial flows to and from Kagbeni Other countries People education, work/ winter migration India Winter migration: cloth industry, blankets, ropes, tea Muktinath (Manang) Wheat, barley, sand Pokhara/ Kathmandu and Apples, beans, buckwheat, Kagbeni roxy/ people education, work, health religious purposes/winter migration, holiday Upper Mustang Agricultural products/ livestock Lower Mustang men to Sell beans, buckwheat/ sell goat, sheep/ children education in Johmson/ work/ hot pools Tatopani Kagbeni VDC Government fund/ sell sand, barley/girls to marry/ men to work KAGBENI Kagbeni VDC for Potato, beans, buckwheat, grass/ wood out of forest/ men to work/children education Lower Mustang Money borrowed/ Mais/ Wood from Ghasa forest Upper Mustang Tuition fees/Salt/ yaks/ children education Pokhara/ Kathmandu etc. / Rice, sugar, water, butter, meat etc. / kerosene, clothes, building materials pilgrims Muktinath (Manang) Children education India Remittances/ Hindu pilgrimage Other countries Remittances 39 4.3.2 Institutional context In Nepal, each district has several Village Development Committees (VDC’s) which can be compared with municipalities but have greater administration and public government interaction. The main goal is to improve service systems by giving inhabitants a saying in decision making. Cooperation with NGO’s, agencies and governments is an important task. Kagbeni VDC consists of seven villages. This research focus on Kagbeni village as explained in paragraph 3.2. The traditional institutional system of Kagbeni goes back for many centuries and is highly influenced by the Tibetan Buddhist religion. Although it has undergone change during the years, many of her characteristics are still apparent in the current daily live Kagbeni. During the field research it became clear that there is a difference between indigenous and non-indigenous households. The first group refers to households who’s families have been living in Kagbeni for centuries and have the rights to own land and join village meetings which consequently gives them the opportunity to express their rights and needs about topics that concerns them. On the other side, non-indigenous households do not have these rights and are mainly households originating from neighbouring districts like Dolpo or are Tibetan refugees. Villagers as well translators assisting during the field research did mention that household indigenous and non-indigenous which consequently is used as a main term in the analysis of this research. An important characteristic of the institutional system is the way the village leader is chosen. Every year another male inhabitant of the village has to be chosen by the villagers. Therefore, a rotating system is in place so that a village leader cannot be a village leader year after year. Mostly, one village leader has several assistants (ex-village leaders) to support him. Every June, inhabitants, with the exception of non-indigenous inhabitants, gather together in the village community house to vote for a new village leader. When there are important occasions and decisions need to be taken, the village leader decides if and when a village meeting is needed as to be able to make a democratic decision. On the morning of the date chosen for a village meeting, one woman shouts through the village to introduce the time and topic of a meeting. In general village meetings inhabitants can tell their concerns and needs about all kind of aspects important in the village like water, land, forest, sanitation, energy etc. Discussions take place and decisions are made by the village leader and his assistants. ‘’Sometimes this can be hard and conflicts are created so the decision has to be well considered covering as many as possible demands of the villagers’’ (Village leader, 23th March, 2011). From every household, one member is obligated to attend the meeting otherwise it has to pay the penalty fee of 100 rupees. However, only indigenous households of Kagbeni are allowed and obligated to attend the meetings. Furthermore, an important characteristic of the institutional system is that all agricultural activities are carried out by all households of the village while supervised by the village leader and his assistances. These activities include the restoration of irrigation canals two times a year and the use of the irrigation rotating system described in paragraph 6.2. As mentioned before, non-indigenous households do not have the right to participate in village meetings. Besides this institutional rule, non-indigenous households are excluded from owning private land and certain other specific rights and services. The scarce fertile land plots are owned by indigenous families for centuries, therefore it is hardly impossible to get a plot of land suitable for 40 agriculture. There are only few cases in which non indigenous inhabitants buy land. Marriage with an indigenous inhabitant of Kagbenit can increase rights to own land. To be able to rent land, the households need to live in Kagbeni for at least 15 years (village leader, 25th March 2011). According to an ex-village leader: ‘’Non indigenous people have the same rights and access to service provision, there is no difference between them and indigenous inhabitants except that they are not allowed in village meetings and have huge difficulties to obtain land’’. However, out of interviews with nonindigenous inhabitants, it became clear that non indigenous households do not have access to nearby forest to obtain wood for energy supply which indigenous households do have. As a conclusion, non-indigenous households are excluded from significant rights and services in the community and therefore have fewer opportunities in the economical and social sense of their livelihoods. 4.3.3 Religious context ‘’It is by far the most ethnically Tibetan of the villages of lower Mustang’’ (Inhabitant Kagbeni) The geographical location of Kagbeni on the border of Lower Mustang and the former Tibetan region of Upper Mustang, is the main factor responsible for this since the village has affinity with the religion and lifestyle of Upper Mustang for century’s. Therefore, the main religion of the villagers of Kagbeni is Tibetan Buddhism which plays a central role in the livelihoods of Kagbeni and has a large influence on habits and lifestyle. Due to their Tibetan cultural and religious traditions, the inhabitants are called ‘’Bhote’’ by their southern neighbours while they call themselves ‘’Kakpa’’. Religion dominates daily life; the day starts and ends with praying in one of the many praying rooms, many of them located in people’s house. Except for daily rituals, agriculture harvest and climate circumstances are seen as dependent on the spirit of Buddha. This can be traced back in the irrigation calendar in which the dates of irrigation are decided by monks. During conversations about future problems an often made statement is: ‘’we cannot foresee the future, we will pray and hope for good weather and a good life’’ Kagbeni hosts a monastery of 400 years old, which consists, like the other village buildings and houses, of mud (see picture 2). This monastery (Gompa) is mostly financed by gifts derived from former monks or external sponsors which make it possible to hosts 20 small monks being educated in the Gompa. According to Tibetan Buddhism the middle son of a family becomes a monk (Lama). Although this tradition is applied in Kagbeni, a combination of out migration of young villagers and a higher proportion of girls living in Kagbeni causes a decrease in the amount of monks in Kagbeni. To keep the monastery alive, since two years Kagbeni VDC has established an initiative in which boys from outside Kagbeni get offered free religious education and live necessities. Some less prosperous families from outside Kagbeni are attracted to send their sons to the monastery as well as it is a benefit for the monastery and religion in Kagbeni itself. At this moment twenty monks in the age categories from 5 up to 8 get education. Besides, older monks in different age categories are living in Kagbeni and dedicate themselves to the monastery and Tibetan Buddhism. Eventually, few monks will be left since the majority of them leaves Kagbeni to work or marry. When they choose to do so they are obligated to pay a fee and most of them are loyal in the sense that they send gifts and 41 donations to the monastery during their live. According to an ex village leader (24th March 2011): ‘’Compared to previous years there are more girls living in Kagbeni, the monks are easily seduced by them, also because girls like monks’’ (Inhabitant Kagbeni) Although religion is believed to be a strong standing aspect in livelihoods of Kagbeni, several (external) threats are visible. First of all, the Nepali government is not supporting and sponsoring (Tibetan) Buddhism and their culture as much as they do with Hinduism. Out of different conversations it became clear that the culture and religion including the conservation of Buddhist monasteries, is highly depended on non-governmental gifts and support. Due to external gifts, a new living area for monks is build and a great statue of Buddha is planned to be placed in the village of Kagbeni. On the other side, the nearby pilgrimage place of Muktinath and their Hindu temples get strong government support. Except for the neglect in support by the Nepali government, according to old villagers, their religion faces threats in the sense that it has changed over the last years. The younger people do not know traditional songs anymore and they do not attend several Buddhist festivals. Villagers mention that this is due to external influences like the appearance of TV’s in the village. Whereas before, people would gather together after working time to sing, talk and eat, nowadays they watch television. As a consequence community ties are disappearing. The decrease of interest in religion is part of this (woman Kagbeni, 26th March). Village leader Kagbeni (27th March, 2011): ‘’I regret our cultural traditions are slowly disappearing. Young people do not know the old song anymore. Nowadays there are busy listing music from Kathmandu and Pokhara’’ Eventually, external influences definitely changes culture and tradition in the village of Kagbeni. The question arises if this is per se negative. During field observation it became clear that monks use mobile phones and listen to western music with their mp3 s. This could give a rather contradictory image of religion especially for outsiders and tourists. However, this does not necessarily mean that these monks are less dedicated to their religious believes as they are still following the Tibetan Buddhism. It will become clear that external influences like the opening up of Kagbeni do indirect or direct have influence on religion. Picture 2: Monastery of Kagbeni 42 4.4 Tourism and Annapurna Conservation Area Project In 1977, Lower Mustang was opened for tourism, originated with the trekking route around Annapurna Conservation Area. As a consequence, a part of the households has found a supplement income by offering hosts, lodges, guides and porters. However, this mainly refers to Lower Mustang since Upper Mustang receives limited benefits from local tourism development. In Lower Mustang tourism is highly dominated by locally owned lodges while in Upper Mustang this is non-local investment. Besides, Upper Mustang has been opened up for trekkers only since 1992. In total, 5% of the households in Mustang district run campsites and lodges (NTNC, 2008). Different studies show that tourism can be a benefited alternative to agriculture and livestock (ICIMOD, 2010). The Annapurna Conservation Area Project (ACAP) is launched in 1986 by the National Trust for Nature Conservation (NTNC) and is the first conservation area of Nepal as well as the largest. It includes several trekking routes in the Mustang district from which a few are passing by the village of Kagbeni. The diversity and accessibility of the area attract 60% of the country’s total trekkers (ACAP, 2011).There are over 1000 lodges and teashops and many other jobs like guiding and porters affiliated with tourism. Map 5 shows the ACAP area and her landuse pattern. Picture 3: Rough and attractive landscape of Upper Mustang 43 Map 5: Land use pattern in ACAP Source: NTNC, 2010 The main goals of ACAP are preservation of the natural resources, creation of sustainable social and economic development to inhabitants of the area, and, the development of tourism. The latter in a way that has the least negative impact on socio-cultural, economic and natural environments. To support these goals ACAP establishes different programs like the technical support of the installation of solar panels and the creation of safe drinking water stations. The latter initiative has been successful so far that a tourist does not need to bring or buy bottles to be able to have safe drinking water. By this, water and environment can be saved from plastic and waste. Moreover, tourists have to pay a trekking permit in order to enter the area which is an amount of 2000 NR (20 euro). In the ACAP area several checkpoints exists in which ACAP employees are responsible for checking permits 44 and creating environmental awareness. One of the main checkpoints is situated in Kagbeni which has a supplementary task, namely the checking of visitors entering Upper Mustang who need a special trekking permit of 700 US dollar valid for 10 days. According to the ACAP Head of Kagbeni, projects and needs of inhabitants are discussed with the VDC and demands are taken into account and send to the NTNC. Main projects are forestation, alternative energy supply, water conservation, drinking water supply and the creation of awareness to villages by education in school in the area (Head ACAP station, Kagbeni 23th March 2011). Besides, main projects of ACAP in Kagbeni VDC are to discuss demands and needs of villagers and help them supply the technical support in energy and water systems. Sun panels can be bought by villagers while ACAP assist in the technical support and transport of the sun panels. Since there are too many people living in Kagbeni and the surrounding villages to supply them all with sun panels which cost around 25000 rupees each, (250 euro) ACAP does only supply villagers in Upper Mustang with sun panels. Water stations are visible in almost every village in ACAP. These stations are meant to supply tourists with drinking water who can fill their bottles at the stations for 35 rupees (0.35 Euro) a litre. Villagers can also use this water for the price of 5 (0, 05 Euro) rupees. However, in Kagbeni, CARE Nepal has been installing water tabs in the village so drinking water is available and moreover households cannot afford to pay for the clean drinking water. Besides, ACAP tries to create awareness by giving education and information about the need to conserve forest and wild life. Nearby forests in Tiri and Muktinath are used by villagers for building material and heating energy. By marking the forest villagers know which trees are allowed to be cut and which not. ‘’When a green young tree in the village is disappeared ACAP employees and the village committee come together and people point the tree cutter who will be punished’’ (Head ACAP station, Kagbeni, 23th March 2011). Sometimes there are conflicts between the need of villagers and the need to conserve the area. For example when a leopard or fox destroys the crop field the farmer wants to shoot the animal. However, by discussion, awareness is created that this is not sustainable and villagers get broader insights about this (Head ACAP station, Kagbeni). The positive reactions of the employees of ACAP are contradictory to the reactions of inhabitants of Kagbeni. The main reaction is that ACAP does not give any benefit to the villagers. The money they receive from trekking permits goes all to the government and their relatives in Kathmandu. The only support they offer is the transport of solar panels from Pokhara to Kagbeni. However, his is only beneficial for villagers who can afford solar panels as they cost 25000 rupees (250 euro) each. After all, an important concern seems the need for energy supply which is in this case wood. The combination of wood scarcity and strict regulations make wood expensive and is not affordable for most inhabitants. Map 5 shows the location of Kagbeni north of Johmson in the category grassland. Ten years ago one kilogram of wood was 5 NR (5 eurocent) nowadays this has increased to 50 NR (50 eurocent) rupees a kilogram. To avoid these costs inhabitants want to buy wood from places down the valley like Marpha and Ghasa were there is more wood available. However, ACAP does restrict this and they do not offer the any alternatives in order to respond to this problem. Section 6.3.3 shows the outcomes of energy and problems for households in Kagbeni. Other forms of critic are shown below: ‘’ACAP employees earn around 30.000 a month with a minimum of 20.000, compared to 10.000 for a normal Nepali wage’’ (Inhabitant Kagbeni). 45 ‘’We hope ACAP leaves our village soon since they are causing more damage than giving benefits’’ (Inhabitant Kagbeni). Not surprisingly, on the website of ACAP is stated: ‘’One hundred percent of the revenue is ploughed back to implement conservation and development activities in ACA’’. Additional funds are raised from national and international donors. This is an exemplary achievement of a Non-Government Institution ability to manage a significant portion of the protected area system in Nepal’’ (ACAP, 2011). These comments make clear that conflicting interests between the national park goals of ACAP and the inhabitants’ interests are at the order of the day. Although ACAP receives mainly negative responses, tourism as such is considered as having negative as well as positive influences among the livelihoods of Kagbeni. These perspectives will be discussed in paragraph 7.2. Picture 3: A truck using the new road 46 4.5 The new road “The road comes to Mustang, but Mustang is still further away from the world than most places in the world’’ (Ghaly, Nepali Times, 2001) At the time this statement was written the new road construction from Pokhara along the Kali Gandaki River up to Upper Mustang would just be started. Nowadays this road has been completed up to Kagbeni. Besides, another road part is being completed from the Tibetan border to Lo Mantang, the capital of Upper Mustang. At the time of research (April 2011) the construction of the left part between Kagbeni and Lo Manthang was started to complete the road. When completed, the road will be the lowest drivable corridor that links the Tibetan Plateau with Nepal and India. The main initial reason to construct the road was the identification of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers of the 10th Five Year Plan (PRSP, 2008-2013) of the Nepali government as road construction being a key strategy in poverty reduction. The road in Mustang could create many opportunities for poor livelihoods to reduce impacts of vulnerability and build sustainable livelihoods. On the other side, it could also create cultural disintegration and environmental degradation, widen economic disparity and contribute to growth of settlements (NTNC, 2008) ‘’The road is obviously going to follow the old trading route, transforming the landscape and the way of life of this ancient trail’’(Ghaly, Nepali Times, 2001). The new road has been a controversial subject which has not been in favour of everybody. However, the Nepali Times stated that locals are happy with the new road because of better accessibility of cheaper daily necessities and food (Nepali Times, 2002) In 2008, the National Trust for Nature Conservation (NTNC) wrote a report about the existing and expected impacts of the road construction. The mentioned beneficial impacts were: - A drop in prices of basic household commodities. Due to cheaper transport from food from Kathmandu and Pokhara prices will expect to drop with 30-40%. This will be especially profitable for poor people who spend approximately 70% on their income on food. - Demands from Beni, Pokhara and Kathmandu for local products like apples, brandy, buckwheat, jam etc. will increase. - Trade with Tibet will be more beneficial and easier, among other it has created demands for local goods as well as qualitative good materials like clothes and shoes. - Increase in garbage and waste services located near parking places for vehicles. - Shifts from energy sources like wood and dung to kerosene, LPG gas and improved stoves for a cheaper price. These will become more popular among local households and lodge owners. Besides, due to the road construction, electricity has been connected into Mustang. 47 The majority of lodge owners use a combination of kerosene, LPG gas and electricity for cooking and heating. Therefore pressure on wood and forest will be decreased. - Easier access due to transport. Motorbikes and tractors are increasingly used as transport mean for people and goods. Also the service of micro buses have improved accessibility as reaching Pokhara and Kathmandu takes a few time less than before. Mentioned adverse impacts or possible adverse impacts: - Increase in dust and noise pollution as well as loss of biodiversity. - Some settlements, not linked to the road, are expected to disappear and settlements that lie in between main stops will decline. - Other settlements at central locations will grow which will give waste and dumping problems and pollution of rivers. - The number of horses and donkeys will decline while the number of goats, sheep and yak might increase due to changes in trade and transport possibilities. - Increase in accessibility to insecticides and preservatives with as a consequence increase of the use of them by farmers which will give soil and water pollution. - The amount of international tourists could decrease at certain locations along the road since the image of a pristine Mustang will decrease as 20% of the current trekking route will disappear. These locations could face serious economic problems in future. On the other side, more domestic and regional pilgrims and visitors will have accessibility to reach religious places in Mustang. Demand for more sophisticated lodges and tourist facilities will put pressure on natural resources and energy sources. Kagbeni, Jharkot, Muktinath and Johmson will be likely to see congestion problems (NTNC, 2008). After all, the main consideration will be to find the balance between economic growth and the conservation of biodiversity and cultural heritage (NTNC, 2008). In chapter 7 the outcomes about road and tourism perspectives of livelihoods in Kagbeni will become clear. 48 5 CHARACTERISTICS OF KAGBENI LIVELIHOODS The Livelihood Vulnerability Index, as introduced in chapter 2, guides this research in order to answer the main question: What are the main factors determining vulnerability of livelihoods in Kagbeni, and what is the influence of the opening up of the village to this vulnerability? The factors mentioned in the main question are defined by the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) as part of the components exposure, adaptive capacity and sensitivity. To be able to get a clear overview of the outcomes of these factors among Kagbeni livelihoods, this empirical chapter as well as the following one will investigate these in a logical way. The factors chosen to be investigated in determining the vulnerability of Kagbeni households are adapted to the context of Kagbeni as became clear in chapter 3 on methodology. In this chapter, the main characteristics of Kagbeni livelihoods will be investigated including the factors of socio-demographic profile and livelihoods strategies among households of Kagbeni. Although the LVI defines health as a factor of sensitivity, it seems to be more logical to add this factor to the socio-demographic profile of Kagbeni households to give the reader a clearer overview. On the other side, the factor energy is incorporated in the component of sensitivity as this seemed to be a relevant factor among households of Kagbeni. Land ownership, household size, the appearance of female-headed households as well as education and health status are the main components of the socio-demographic profile. Secondly, livelihoods strategies and two main means of existence among Kagbeni households, namely agriculture and migration, will be deepened out. This chapter includes the component of adaptive capacity, defined as the system’s ability to adjust to climate change (climate variability, extremes), to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with consequences (IPPC, 2010). Consequently, the sub question: How do livelihoods respond to their vulnerability? can be traced down from this chapter. It will become clear that certain livelihood strategies are a response or a mean to cope with climate variability or other vulnerable factors like food security. In chapter 8, discussing the results and referring to the theoretical framework, as well as chapter 9, answering and concluding on the main results and outcomes, the outcomes investigated in the empirical chapters will be related and compared and those questions answered. In the following chapter 6, the factors of climate variability, natural disasters as well as the food, water and energy status among Kagbeni households will be investigated, all named as vulnerability aspects of Kagbeni livelihoods. Altogether, chapter 5 will give the introduction about characteristics of Kagbeni livelihoods while chapter 6 will relate to external climatologically (e.g. climate exposures) influences and the sensitivity factors of food, water and energy. Eventually, chapter 5 and 6 will try to find an answer on the question what are the main factors determining vulnerability of livelihoods in Kagbeni guided by the LVI. To be able to answer the main question, chapter 7 will elaborate further on the influence of the opening up of Kagbeni to the factors determining vulnerability of livelihoods of Kagbeni. A main comment to be taken into account is that throughout these chapters, outcomes between indigenous and non-indigenous households will be compared. It is hypothesized that non-indigenous households are more vulnerable than indigenous households since they are not able to own land and lack rights to access village meetings and forests. 49 5.1 Socio-demographic profile households This section explores socio-demographic characteristics of households Kagbeni. Out of existing literature it becomes clear that important socio-demographic household characteristics in the context of vulnerability are landownership, the head of the household referring to gender, the household size, health status and the performance of education. It is hypothesized that the bigger the household size the more vulnerable a household is. Furthermore, it is hypothesized that female headed households are more vulnerable than man headed households. However, the literature confirms the exception of several studies which are conducted in Nepal where female-headed households are less vulnerable than men headed households. Besides, education is considered as a mean to soften vulnerability and a higher proportion of health problems indicate a higher level of vulnerability. Eventually, the exclusion of social networks, in this research primarily community decision making processes, make households more vulnerable. Therefore, this section explores the question: what are the main sociodemographic characteristics responsible for the vulnerability of livelihoods of Kagbeni? 5.1.1 Landownership It has become clear that landownership in Kagbeni is dependent on whether a household is indigenous or not. According to the traditional system of Kagbeni only indigenous households do have the right to own land. All land being irrigated by the communal irrigation system and plots are spread among Kagbeni as can be seen on map 4. Table 6 shows that none of the non-indigenous households do own land whereas almost 90% of the indigenous do own land. The two indigenous households without land are a household consisting of an 84-year old female and a household consisting of six members with a female as the head of the household whose mother is an orphan of Upper Mustang and married a Kagbeni man. Both households have the rights to own land but respectively do not see the necessity and lack the capital to buy land. In total, it can be stated that approximately half of the households do not own land and half of them do own land with the latter group consisting of only indigenous households. Since landownership is of great value for own crop cultivation, the owning of livestock or tourist lodges, the outcomes in differences between indigenous and non-indigenous households are supposed to have consequences for their assets including their income sources which will become clear in section 5.2.1. Table 6: Landownership among indigenous and non-indigenous households Indigenous Absolute % Non indigenous Total Absolute Absolute % % Owner 16 89,9 % 0 0% 16 53,3% Non-owner 2 11,1 % 12 100% 14 46,7% Total 18 100 % 12 100% 30 100% 50 5.1.2 Female-headed households In the research population of Kagbeni, 23 % of households have a female as the head of the household. The main reason mentioned by respondents of having a female as the head of the household is because the husband has died due to an accident or sickness and the woman takes over the household. Since she mostly has to take care of children and household purposes she will have less or no time to work in agriculture or other income activities. Compared to the national average of 9 % and the average in mountain regions of 19%, the proportion of female-headed households in Kagbeni is high. However, compared to the Western Development region in which Kagbeni is situated the proportion of female headed households is only slightly higher. On the other side, the percentage of female headed households in Kagbeni compared to the neighbouring villages of Lete and Kunjo which are respectively 16, 7% and 36,7 % is average (Urothody and Larsen, 2010 p. 12). Although the other 76 % of the households have a man as the head of the households, woman of Kagbeni and of mountain areas in general are involved in almost equal or even more activities man are involved in. This means, they do participate in all agricultural activities like irrigation preparation, cultivation and animal husbandry, with the exclusion of goat herding in the high field. Moreover, women are greatly involved in tourism business like hostage of guests and the selling of food and souvenirs along trekking routes. Besides, they are responsible for household’s activities and taking care of the children. 5.1.3 Household size The household size is highly dependent on the specific context as factors like religion, livelihood possibilities and access to preservation means influence the household size. In context of the high population growth of 1.6% in Nepal (IndexMundi, 2011), household size could be an indicator of poverty and vulnerability of livelihoods. According to Nepal CBS (2005) the average household size of the rural population in Nepal is 5.7. This varies between averages of 5.5 in the Eastern region up to 6.2 in the Mid Western region. In Kagbeni the average household size is 5.5 which is slightly lower compared to the national average of the rural population. Among the research population of 30 households there are three outliners indicating households with a household size of 10, 11 and 12. Since it has become clear that migration plays an important role in the livelihoods of Kagbeni, often households members live outside the village which masks the actual number of household members living in the same house. Besides, there exists a difference between the number of household members during winter and summer season since seasonal migration takes place during the winter season with as a consequence a lower number of household members and therefore inhabitants of Kagbeni during that season. After all, it can be concluded that in the Nepalese context Kagbeni households are not more vulnerable in the aspect of household size than the average in Nepal. Moreover, the tradition of seasonal migration is a method to survive and to soften the burden of a big household size. Therefore, it can be concluded, that this response which has been a part of live in Kagbeni for many centuries is a main strategy that makes a household able to cope with the burden of a high number of household members and consequently makes it less vulnerable. 51 5.1.4 Education The World Bank states that ‘’Education is one of the most powerful instruments for reducing poverty and inequality and lays a foundation for sustained economic growth’’ (The World Bank, 2011.) Also the United Nation Millennium Development Goals include education in target 2.A: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling (United Nations, 2011 MDG). 60 % of the households in Kagbeni have at least one or more members of the households attending a sort of education. This ranges from the primary school in Kagbeni up to University and religious education in Kathmandu and India. A total of 18 of the 30 households have at least one household member involved in education. Four of these 18 households consist of household members that attend more than one kind of education in a different geographical area. Therefore, the total number of households spread among different geographical areas becomes 22 as can be seen in table 7. Of the indigenous households, 66.7 % has at least one household member attending a sort of education while this is 83% for non-indigenous households. A clarification could be that more indigenous households own agricultural land and therefore need more children to work in agricultural business. Besides, they receive more incomes resources and therefore need more children to divide labour. Non-indigenous households do not own land and have less income sources as becomes clear in paragraph 5.2. Table 7: Education by geographical area among 22 indigenous and non-indigenous households having at least one household member attending education Indigenous Absolute Non indigenous % Absolute Total % Absolute % Kagbeni 7 58, 3 % 5 50 % 11 50 % Johmson 1 8,3 % 0 0,0 % 1 4,5 % Pokhara 3 25 % 3 30,0 % 6 27, 3 % Kathmandu 4 33,3 % 0 0,0 % 4 18,2 % Chitwan 0 0,0 % 2 20 % 2 9,1 % India 1 8,3 % 0 0,0 % 0 0,0 % USA 1 8,3 % 0 0,0 % 0 0,0 % Total households 12 141, 5 % 10 100,0 % 22 109,1% 52 Another difference can be recognized in the level of education as well as the geographical area of education which can be seen in table 7. While among non-indigenous households the educational area is limited to Kagbeni, Pokhara and Chitwan, the indigenous households see a much broader range of educational areas including Kathmandu, India and the USA. Education in Kagbeni, Pokhara, Johmson and Chitwan is either primary, secondary or of religious purposes while education in Kathmandu and the USA is at University level. It has to be mentioned that of the non- indigenous households, having at least one household member attending boarding schools in Chitwan and Pokhara, are headed by teachers who are send by the Nepalese government to teach in Kagbeni. The most probable clarification of the fact that none of the non-indigenous households attend school in either Kathmandu or further away is that non-indigenous households do not have the financial resources to send their children to universities. University level education is relatively expensive while primary, secondary or religious education is either free or costs less. Box 1: School of Kagbeni (interviews with teachers and inhabitants) The school of Kagbeni is established in 1963 as a primary school for children from the age 1 until 5. Nowadays, ages ranges from 1 until 15 and the school hosts 38 boys and 47 girls having primary and secondary education. Six days a week they get lessons in al kind of subjects ranging from geography and history to theatre and sports. The children originate from Kagbeni or from smaller towns around Kagbeni. Children from villages in Upper Mustang usually stay at the home stay. These children (around 40) stay in a home near the school and go only home at Saturday or during the holiday of two months in the winter. For higher secondary school children should go to Johmson and Pokhara. There are few children who do this, just like the small group that finally goes to universities in Pokhara and Kathmandu.‘’To be able to attend University, children have to follow a long and difficult trajectory which is also very expensive’’ (teacher at Kagbeni secondary school, 21st March, 2011) Education has relatively low tuition fees in Kagbeni but for higher quality education or higher education in Johmson, Pohkara and Kathmandu tuition fees are high and for most households not affordable .Out of different conversations, it became clear, that if parents can afford to send their children to another school than in Kagbeni they would do so. The level of education, especially the English language, is insufficient at Kagbeni school, the quality is better somewhere else (father of children attending school in Kagbeni). Besides, the English language is increasingly popular as for many children it is the ‘’future language’’ which would give prosperity. There are twenty teachers, send by the Nepalese government and mainly male, who do not originate from Kagbeni but com from Chitwan area and Langtang and are send by the Nepalese government. These teachers use to stay a few years after they are sent somewhere else. The Nepalese government tries to promote Nepalese education and habits in the Buddhist and former Tibetan areas. Until a few years ago children had to talk in Nepalese and were forbidden to use the Tibetan language. Now it has become softer but still Nepalese habits and the language as the Lingua Franca are widely promoted. There is a sport field for playing volleyball inside the school area. They like to play football but there is hardly any space in the mountainous area to have a flat field. However, there were plans to construct a football field but there is a lack of finance. One of the successful projects inside the school is the establishment of a library which is financed by an Indian NGO. 53 5.1.5 Health 23, 3 % of the households in Kagbeni indicate to have one or more members in the household with chronic health problems. The main problems mentioned are respiratory problems including throat and long infections. This is followed by knee and back problems due to heavy agricultural, house duty work and moreover to the cold climate. The dry climate characterized by the always existing wind in Kagbeni causes except for long and throat diseases, muscle and bone problems. Although masks are used as protection against dust and wind, sustainable solutions are not in place. National statistics show that the Western Development Region of Nepal in which Kagbeni is situated has the highest proportion of respiratory infections of Nepal. This mirrors the outcomes of health problems in Kagbeni (WHO, 2007). Although masks are used as protection against dust and wind, sustainable solutions are not in place. The local health clinic has medicines available to soften these problems but households indicate that these do not give sufficient treatment to recover. The nearest health post is the local clinic situated in Kagbeni village. This health facility provides basic medicines and treatment. For more sophisticated medicines and complex health problems people have to go to Johmson, Pokhara, Kathmandu or even India in order to get the right treatment. However, these visits are time and cost consuming and therefore not affordable for the majority of people. One household indicated: ‘’We need medicines for my father as he suffers from respiratory problems’’ However, since they are too expensive and we can not afford to visit health posts further away, his illness will be longstanding’1 According to national statistics, 40% of the population in mountainous areas in Nepal lives at a distance of less than 30 minutes to the nearest health facility (MLI, 2009, p.2). Therefore livelihoods in Kagbeni are better off compared to most livelihoods living in mountainous areas. However, concluded out of the above indications, basic medicines are available but not adequate enough to threat especially respiratory diseases mentioned by households in Kagbeni. Therefore inhabitants have to visit health services further away which is cost and time consuming. Moreover, comprehensive medication is not affordable for most households. Not accessibility but provision of affordable qualitative good medication is the biggest problem. 1 By experiences of the researcher herself it became clear that basic medicines like antibiotics are provided for free or against a voluntary donation. This is due to the in 2009 created Initiative of the Nepal Government which confirms that all citizens are able to access District Hospitals and Primary Health Care Centres without having to pay for drugs, emergency and in-patient service and registration (MLI, 2009. p.1) 54 5.2 Livelihood strategies ‘’Although small ponds may not produce large quantities of fish, they are a valuable addition to a diversified livelihood’’ (FAO, 2008) Livelihoods strategies are the various activities taken by livelihoods to generate a living. The specific geographical position, the history and culture, the possibilities of cultivation are amongst others determinants influencing livelihood strategies. Over time, livelihood strategies can be dynamic as they respond to specific constraints and opportunities. For example, migration can be seen as a mean to secure a livelihood as people move somewhere else when they can no longer secure a livelihood in their living area. Besides, seasonal migration can be a mean to secure food security in winter season when there is not sufficient agricultural harvest (Thieme, 2008). Rural livelihoods can consist of a range of diverse livelihood strategies like agricultural and livestock activities and non agricultural activities like migration activities. Which strategies are chosen to generate an income and a living depend on the specific context and the possibilities of the livelihood groups. Not all groups in a community will be equal in participating in different livelihood strategies depending on factors like access to land and business skills. In this chapter the livelihood strategies of Kagbeni livelihoods will be analyzed. Since this is a rural community it is clear that agriculture and livestock have been playing a central role in this village. However, there exist other means of generating a livelihood like tourism and migration. The question arises which are the sources of income that exist among households in Kagbeni. And, do indigenous households show different livelihood strategies than non-indigenous livelihoods? Besides, what are the characteristics of agricultural activities in Kagbeni? These questions will help to find an answer on the sub question: ‘’How do households of Kagbeni respond to their vulnerability?’’. Thereby, it is hypothesized that more diverse rural livelihoods are less vulnerable than undiversified ones. 5.2.1 Analysis of household assets Section 5.2.1 explores the different income sources among livelihoods. This is followed by section 5.2.2 in which the agricultural system is of Kagbeni is explained. In section 5.2.3 an important livelihood strategy, namely migration is investigated. Eventually, a conclusion is drawn in order to find answers on the above mentioned questions. Assets among livelihoods in Kagbeni are being characterized by a range of income sources. In this, diversification of livelihood strategies seems to play an important role. Almost all households in Kagbeni do have one of more agricultural related sources of income. They can either be a primary, secondary or even a tertiary source of income. Agricultural related sources of income include the cultivation of crops, the keeping of livestock, collecting and selling natural products like wood and Yarsagumba, and, paid labour in agriculture. Non-agricultural sources of income include business in 55 tourism, remittances derived from migrants, paid labor in construction, the selling of goods other than agricultural products, gifts from monasteries, and teacher loans. In total, 27% of the households in Kagbeni depend solely on agricultural related activities as a source of income. The other 73% receives both incomes from agricultural as well as non agricultural related sources of income. However, these percentages do only give an indication of diversification between non-agricultural and agricultural related activities. For a more detailed investigation of livelihood diversification in Kagbeni a division has to be made between the different kind of income sources whether agricultural related or not. Table 8 shows the different sources of income among households of Kagbeni. Since most households do receive one or more sources of income, combinations exist. This clarifies the fact that table 8 shows percentages above 100 %. It is clear that tourism and own crop cultivation and/or livestock are among the most seen sources of income. This is followed by remittances derived from either permanent or seasonal migrants. It has to be noted that 30% of the households receives remittances in the form of money while more households do receive remittances in the form of materials like clothes and food. However, the latter percentage is not known since households could not indicate this due to the irregularity of this income source. Paid labour in agriculture is the fourth main income source seen among households of Kagbeni. This is solely practiced by households without land. Except for money, this work is often substituted for food or wood. Table 8: Sources of income among indigenous and non-indigenous households Indigenous Non indigenous Total Absolute % Absolute % Absolute % Own crop/livestock 13 72,2 % 0 0,0 % 13 43,3 % Paid labour in agriculture 2 11,1 % 5 41,7 % 7 23,3 % Paid labour in construction 0 0,0 % 1 8,3 % 1 3,3 % Tourism 11 61,1 % 3 25,0 % 14 46,7 % Teacher loan 0 0,0 % 4 33,3 % 4 13,3 % Gifts monastery 2 11,1 % 0 0,0 % 2 6,7 % Remittances (money) 8 44,4 % 1 8,3 % 9 30,0 % Total 18 199,9 % 12 116,6 % 30 166,6% 56 Significant observations are the differences in sources of income between indigenous and nonindigenous households. First of all, own crop cultivation and the keeping of own livestock is only practiced by indigenous households. Since non-indigenous households do not own land they are not able to cultivate their own crops or keep their own livestock, with the exception of one nonindigenous households keeping one goat. On the other hand, 41, 7% of the non-indigenous households compared to 11, 1 % of the indigenous households are involved in agriculture as a form of paid labour. This means they offer their labor to work on someone else land. For their work they either get money or subsistence income of food or wood. Secondly, tourism is practiced by 61, 1 % of the indigenous households compared to 25 % of the non-indigenous households. This difference can be declared by the fact that non-indigenous households do not have the land and investments to own a tourism lodge or restaurant. The 25% of the households that are involved in tourism either are involved in guiding tourists, as a porter, or the renting out of few rooms to pilgrims. The third significant difference is the amount of households receiving remittances. Among indigenous households this is 44.4 %, compared to 8.3 % among the non-indigenous households. A clarification could be the fact that only 25% of the non-indigenous households is involved in migration compared to 94.4 % among indigenous households (see paragraph 5.3). Another recognizable difference is that the four households receiving a teacher loan are all non-indigenous households. They consist of teachers who are send by the Nepalese government to teach at the primary school of Kagbeni (see Box 1). As has become clear, most households can have more than one source of income. Table 9 shows the division of combination of income sources among households in Kagbeni. The different income sources are selected as in table 8. As households of Kagbeni do not have more than three income sources, a range is made from one to three income sources. It becomes clear that almost half of the households do rely on one source of income while the other half relies on two or three sources. Since non-indigenous households are not able to own land and are therefore for the greater part excluded of an own farm and hotel or lodge it can be presumed that they have a lower number of income sources. Table 9: Number of income sources among indigenous and non-indigenous households Indigenous Absolute 1 5 Non indigenous Total % Absolute % Absolute % 16.8 % 9 75 % 14 46.7 % 2 9 50 % 3 25 % 12 40 % 3 4 22.2 % 0 0% 4 13.3 % Total 18 100 % 12 100 % 30 100 % 57 The relation between indigenous and non-indigenous households and the number of income sources is strong. 2 Concluded, the fact that a household is indigenous or non-indigenous does have a strong influence on the number of incomes sources. Indigenous households show a higher number of income sources than non-indigenous households. This can be underlined by the fact that only 25% of the non indigenous households have two sources of income while the other 75% has one source of income. Contradictory, 50% of the indigenous households have two income sources while the other 50% is spread among one and three income sources (table 9). 5.2.2 Agriculture Although paragraph 5.1 shows that tourism is an important source of income, still 73% of the households in Kagbeni are directly involved in agriculture. This means they cultivate crops, keep livestock, collect wood or Yarsagumba (Cordyceps sinensis) (see Box 3). Crops are being grown at terraced fields spread around Kagbeni along the river Dzon Chu. Fields are separated by stone walls and complex irrigation channels (see picture 4.) Every plot of land used for cultivation has access to the communal irrigation system. Indigenous households who own land has all access to this irrigation system in order to cultivate their plots. Land plots without access to this irrigation system are unsuitable for cultivation and therefore abandoned or not used. Recently, three non-indigenous households having lived in Kagbeni for more than 15 years got a plot of land offered by Kagbeni VDC. However, this land is not suitable for cultivation as no irrigation is possible on these plots of land due to lack of access to the irrigation system and the difficult position to possibly develop an irrigation system that reach these plots of land. Other than the main crops of barley and buckwheat; vegetable, potatoes, apples, apricots and peaches are grown in orchards. Cultivation is supplemented by animal husbandry. These consist of cows (mainly crossbreed mountain cows), goats, mules, donkeys and horses. Goats are brought daily to higher fields to graze and eat grass whereas the other livestock remain grazing on fallow shields near the village. Besides, little chicken and dogs are kept. The agriculture calendar shown in figure 4 gives an overview of the agricultural system throughout the year. Due to a favourable temperatures and the irrigation system, two harvests a year are possible. The season starts in February when barley and wheat are planted and lasts until the end of October when snow starts to fall. 2 The zero hypotheses is that there is no relation between the number of different income sources and the fact that households are non-indigenous or not. As the conditions for the Chi2 Test are not valid since 3 cells have expected counting less than 5, an alternative Fisher's Exact Test can be used. Cramer’s V/ Phi have a rate of 0.743, which indicates a strong relationship. Concluded, the originality of livelihoods does have a strong influence on the number of incomes sources. Indigenous households show a higher number of income sources than non-indigenous households. This can be underlined by the fact that only 25% of the non indigenous households have two sources of income while the other 75% has one source of income. Contradictory, 50% of the indigenous households have two income sources while the other 50% is spread among one and three income sources (table 9) 58 Picture 4: Situation of Kagbeni and fields bordered by stone walls and irrigation channels Figure 4: Agricultural calendar for Kagbeni Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug cover ------| Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan |---------- winter, snow |----animals stall fed ----- harvest barley and wheat-----------| |--plant barley/wheat--- |----plant vegetables----------------------harvest vegetables |--plant buckwheat------------harvest buckwheat—| l---- harvest apples--------| Yarsagumba picking |--Tourist peak low---| --------return---| |------Tourist peak high--| |------Wintermigration 59 Compared to the high fertile lowland Terai region in the south where approximately 70% of the agricultural land can be found, the Himalayan region only shares 4% of the total land suitable for agriculture in Nepal (Shresta, 2007). While in the Terai region almost all important food crops can be grown due to fertile ground and the monsoon which causes long growing seasons, the Himalayan region has limited agricultural possibilities. Therefore, cold resistant crops like buckwheat, millet, barley and potato are grown in limited quantities. The growing season is relatively short characterized by a long winter season between the months November until February when no cultivation takes place. However, in case of Kagbeni, the establishment of fruit plantations has been a success over the last 35 years, and broaden cultivation possibilities (see Box 1). Cultivation practiced in Kagbeni can be categorized in four categories as seen in table 10. Table 10: Four categories of cultivation Kagbeni Category of cultivation Variations Cereals Wheat, barley, buckwheat, maize Potato Potato Vegetables Green vegetables, cauliflower, carrot, onion beans, garlic Fruit Apples, apricot, peaches 70% of the households cultivating crops cultivate the maximum number of categories of cultivation possible in Kagbeni. A relatively new business in Kagbeni is the production of apples. Apples and their related products of apples juice, apple brandy and dried apples are traded and sold. After July when apples are harvested, they are transported into Lower Mustang and Pokhara. Moreover, traders from villages in Lower Mustang come to Kagbeni to buy big amounts of apples and to sell them down in the valleys. Compared to the ‘’Apple village of Marpha’’, 12km south of Kagbeni, Kagbeni is still in an early stage of apple production trade. However, inhabitants of Kagbeni expect the apple trade to be developing and some even think it is the future of Kagbeni (see Box 1). Besides apple production as a relatively new form of diversification of livelihood strategies, Yarsagumba trade is a relatively new business which can be seen in Box 2. Since agriculture is not sufficient to sustain the population of Kagbeni, animal husbandry is practiced. 57% of the households in Kagbeni keeps at least one kind of animal. Table 11 shows the division of different kind of livestock among the 18 households keeping livestock. A proportion of 23% of the households keeps goats as a main source of livestock. Goat shepherds can be away from house for several months in order to reach and stay at higher range fields were more grass is available. After summer season they come back to trade the goats and their meat. Furthermore, cows are kept and used for milk and their dung which functions as fertilizer or isolation material on roof tops. Horses, mules and donkeys are used as a mean of transport. During winter, animals are 60 stall fed and are taken care of by the few left inhabitants. Yaks, the traditional animals of the area, can only be seen up the higher fields on an altitude of around 4000 meter. They are brought from Upper Mustang to Kagbeni to be sheared and traded during May and June each year. Meat, milk, cheese, butter and wool are used by households. Table 11: Livestock among indigenous and non-indigenous households of the 18 households keeping livestock Indigenous Non indigenous Total Absolute % Absolute % Absolute % Only cows 1 6% 2 12 % 3 16,7% Only goats 0 0% 1 6% 1 11,1% Only mules 1 6% 0 0% 1 11,1% Goats and cows 5 24 % 0 0% 5 27,8% Horses and cows 5 28 % 0 0% 5 27,8% Horses, cows and goats 3 18 % 0 0% 3 16,7% Total 15 82 % 3 18 % 18 100% It is clear than non-indigenous households share only the small proportion of 18% of the total households keeping of livestock. As shown in table 11, three non-indigenous households own cows or goats while the other two own some chicken. In total, only 7 households own chicken with a maximum of six chickens. Chicken are not seen as useful as the other kinds of livestock since they do only produce few eggs. Chicken meat is only used in small proportion since prices are relatively high. While 10 years ago they were sold for 100 NR, nowadays the price has increased up to 500 NR. The gap between the indigenous and non-indigenous households concerning the keeping of livestock can be declared by different reasons. First of all, non-indigenous households do not own land and are therefore not able to keep rather big amounts of livestock. Secondly, they have relatively small investment possibilities due to a smaller and less prosperous income than indigenous households. Table 12 shows the great differences between the amounts of goats. One household has only one goat, which is the only non-indigenous household keeping a goat. Contradictory to this household, the other, indigenous households keep goats as a main income source and are all active in goats and their related activities of meat and wool sale. The household owning 200 goats has as its primary income source goat keeping. 61 Table 12: Number of goats per household Goats in herd Households 1 1 20-30 2 60-70 2 90-100 2 200 1 Total 8 Picture 5: Goats grazing on the higher fields After all, according to villagers, although a relatively high yield, agricultural production in Kagbeni can only feed one-fifth of the total population in a year. Additional food supply has to be bought from outside the village existing of mainly food grains in the form of rice. Reasons for this lack of food self-sufficiency are primarily the small size of land plots for the majority of the population. The expansion of field is a debatable topic since aspects like non-fertile land, landownership, mythological traditions and especially the lack of manpower in Kagbeni makes this a limited alternative (Pohle and Haffner, 2001 p.188). Section 6.3.1 will further elaborate on food security among households in Kagbeni. 62 Box 2: ‘’Apples: the future of Kagbeni’’ Apple brandy, apple pies, dried apples, fresh apples…all available in the high mountain village of Kagbeni. Not expectable in a village surrounded by dry desert like landscape where the wind always flows and trees are non- existent. Surprisingly apple trees seem to feel comfortable in the area and produce juicy sweet apples. In the village of Marpha, situated 12 km south of Kagbeni on an altitude of 2650 meter, commercial apple production started in the 1960’s while before that time apple production was mainly for subsistence use. Good climate and soil conditions and favourable transport opportunities caused an upheaval of apple production. Not only export to Pokhara and Kathmandu aroused, also demand of tourists for apples gave rise to apple production. While apples in Marpha are sold for the price of 10-15 NR a kilo in Pokhara this is 25 NR while in Kathmandu 40 NR. Compared to Chinese apples, prices are high due to better quality and higher transportation costs. However, quality seems the best characteristics of these mountain apples since no pesticides are used as relatively low insects and parasites are exist in the mountain area. While Marpha apples and brandy has been famous for half a century, apple production in Kagbeni is relatively young. A combination of new knowledge, entrepreneurship and more favourable climate circumstances has caused an increase of apple growth opportunities in the village. Most households active in agriculture cultivate some or more apple trees and few are producing apples in large quantities. In July and August when apples are harvested, traders from Pokhara and Kathmandu visit Kagbeni to buy apples and sell them in villages in the Kali Gandaki valley as well as in Pokhara and Kathmandu. Throughout the year dried apples and apple brandy are produced in Kagbeni for domestic use as well as for sale to villagers and tourists. New initiatives like apple cakes and pies are increasingly attracted by visitors outside Kagbeni. Since the new road construction, apple export is becoming easier and cheaper. However, disadvantages like pollution and the destruction of agricultural fields due to the road are visible. Besides, climate factors like a higher temperature and an increase in wind strength are negative influencing apple production. However, by some households and inhabitants apple production is seen as the future pillar of Kagbeni: ‘’We want to start a big apple farm and export all kind of apple products’’ This statement is made by two young villagers who see the apples as their future business. Picture 6: Planting new apple trees 63 5.3 Migration ‘’For many people migration is not an exception but an integral part of their lives” (Thieme, 2005 p.21). Migration is an interesting phenomenon in Kagbeni since 83.3% of the respondents indicate to have at least one family member involved in migration. Migration has been a longstanding traditional method to supplement the agricultural existence of inhabitants of Kagbeni. Significant is that among indigenous households 94, 4 % is involved in migration compared to only 25 % among nonindigenous households. Since migration is amongst others a mean to soften the burden of a high household number, especially in times of food shortage like the winter season in Kagbeni. A clarification could be the lower household number of 3, 2 compared to 6, 7 among indigenous households. Besides, the tradition of migration in Kagbeni could be higher integrated and more known among indigenous households. In chapter 8, more discussion will take place to search for possible clarifications. Table 12 shows that 10 of the 21 households have at least one household member who is involved in permanent migration. The division of purposes of this migration is evenly distributed. Besides work purposes, education consisting of mainly university, high school education and religious education are important pull factors. Religious education consists of the education of monks (lamas) who stay for a period of time in a monastery. Mostly, these monks do not return to their birthplace but stay in the particular monastery of education. While most seasonal migrants move to Pokhara to work, the majority of permanent work purposed migrants move to Kathmandu .The underlying reason is the relatively short travel time to go to Pokhara compared to Kathmandu. Besides, for permanent migrants, work possibilities in Kathmandu are bigger than in Pokhara. Permanent educational purposed migrants move to Kathmandu or Pokhara and if affordable to overseas countries like the USA (see table 12). Contradictory, permanent religious educational purposed migrants move mainly to India and only in few cases to Pokhara or Kathmandu. Table 12: Migration pattern and geographical area of 21 Kagbeni households Geographical area/ Permanent work Reason migration Permanent education Permanent Seasonal (work) religious education Pokhara 1 3 1 5 Kathmandu 5 2 2 1 Mustang - - - 1 India 1 - 3 3 USA 1 1 - - Italy 1 - - - 64 Migration can be divided in seasonal (winter migration) and permanent migration, ranging in scales from migration to different communities in the Mustang district up to migration to India and the United States. Table 12 shows the migration patterns of the 21 households of Kagbeni involved in migration. Seasonal migration consists only of work purposed migration during the winter season. This has been a longstanding tradition for livelihoods of Kagbeni and the whole Mustang district in order to cope with the absence of work and a food shortage in winter season: ‘’In winter season the village is almost empty. Only few people are needed to take care of the animals and to sweep and clean the houses and roofs’’ (Inhabitant Kagbeni) This saying is typical for the state of the village in wintertime, an empty and quite village. In March when the new season starts and the irrigation system has to be prepared by villagers, the village gets its lively atmosphere back. Men and woman packed with clothes and food from outside the village enter Kagbeni and fill up the houses, streets and fields. Most seasonal migrants move to Pohkara and some to Kathmandu while others move all the way to India to sell goods like clothes while others try to earn some money to save or to buy clothes and materials to take back to their families in Kagbeni. Since improved infrastructure and transport options are available, this seasonal migration has become increasingly popular. After all, it is an important livelihood strategy for livelihoods of Kagbeni. Table 13: Distribution migration patterns and remittances of 21 Kagbeni households Reason migration Number households Remittances (money) Permanent work 7 6 Permanent education 6 - Permanent religion 6 - Seasonal (work) 11 6 Remittances derived from migrants in the form of money, are evenly distributed among seasonal and permanent migrants as shown in 13. Only work purposed migration is directly beneficial for family members back home since they receive money. In case of seasonal migration, almost half of the migrants do not send or take remittances in the form of money back home but in the form of clothes and materials. In case of (religious) educational migration no remittances are sent back. However, religious educational purposed migration is another specific strategy to cope with vulnerability of livelihoods in the sense that it softens the financial burden that children bring by sending them to monasteries. Here they get food and education for free while sometimes families get gifts from the monasteries. After all, migration and the derived remittances are an important livelihood strategy for livelihoods of Kagbeni. 65 5.4 Conclusion The most obvious socio-demographic aspect responsible for the vulnerability of livelihoods in Kagbeni is the high proportion of female headed households of 23%. Since a high level of female headed households indicate a higher vulnerability this is an indicator of vulnerability among livelihoods of Kagbeni. The proportion of households having at least one family member involved in (religious) education is high with 73, 3%. This is definitely an improvement with previous years stated by village leaders of Kagbeni. However, higher education is still not affordable for most households. Religious education and primary school education are free and therefore most seen. 73% of the households in Kagbeni are directly involved in agricultural practices like crop cultivation or livestock keeping while 50% is involved in tourism like owning a lodge or restaurant o renting out rooms or horses. Besides, 13% receives a government loan while 7% receives gifts like food and wood of the monastery. Another important income source is that of remittances derived from seasonal as well as permanent migrants being part of the household. While more than 80% of the households have at least one member involved in migration, 20% does receive remittances in the form of money. Another, less stable and not known number of remittances is received in the form of food and clothes. While the described sources of income all exist among households in Kagbeni, some households are active in only one source of income while other households receive two or three sources of income. Around 50% of the livelihoods receive one source of income which is either derived from agriculture, tourism, government loans or monastery gifts. Another 35 % receives two sources of income while the other 15% receives three sources of income. Indigenous livelihoods show a higher number of income sources than non-indigenous households. As a more diversified range of incomes indicates less vulnerability of households it can be concluded that non-indigenous livelihoods of Kageni are more vulnerable. Significant is the fact that 80% of the livelihoods having tourism as a primary income source is indigenous of Kagbeni as well as 80% of the livelihoods having own agriculture as their main source of income. The main reason is that non-indigenous livelihoods do not own land and consequently have no possibilities to practice own agriculture or to own a tourist affiliated service like a lodge. Agriculture as a direct (by owning land) or indirect (by paid labour in agriculture) source of income is the most seen among livelihoods of Kagbeni. This is followed up by tourism being an important supplement or even a main source of income for many livelihoods. Migration is an important off-farm livelihood strategy. It functions as a strategy to survive in winter season and as an income source like remittances in the form of money, clothes and food. Relatively new forms of agriculture are apple production and the collecting of Yarsagumba. These practices are seen as mainly positive development as they are a supplement income for households of Kagbeni or even a future perspective. Eventually it has become clear that nonindigenous households are more vulnerable since they have less income sources indicating less diversified livelihood strategies as well as hardly any benefits of tourism. Besides, they do hardly own livestock and do not have their own crop cultivation. 66 Box 3: ‘’Viagra van de Himalaya’’ Yursugamba, an old medicine and nowadays also “Viagra of the Himalya’’ grows in Kagbeni as well in the higher areas of Upper Mustang, Manang and Dolpo. The Dolpo region is known for best quality Yursubamba. Many young man, come all the way from Pokhara and Kathmandu to go up into the mountains and pick the Yursugamba for 2 months in May and June. It is a hard job because you need to have good eyes and be concentrated to pick the right size, color and after all a good quality. Also you have to lie down or sit on the ground to pick the Yursugamba out of the ground and mud. How higher the altitude how better the quality of the Yursugamba. In Kagbeni, situated at a relatively low altitude, the quality is less than in Dolpo and Upper Mustang. The last decennia young people make good business by selling the Yursugamba to trade men who sell it to Chinese and Indian sellers or directly in Tibet (Interview ACAP employee, 15 February, 2011). The price of low quality sort is 200 rupees per Yursugamba stick while a high quality one is 500 rupees. The average price of a kilogram is 14000 rupees. Since 5 years, Yursugamba has made an entrance in the lives of many young people from Kagbeni as well as families from the Dolpa region. According to Lama from Kagbeni (40 years), the Yursugamba is a mean to develop livelihoods in Dolpa and to free them from poverty. This is highly positive as this is one of the only means for them to get out of their marginal existence. ‘’About one month, entire families move from their villages in Dolpo to higher regions in their region, to pick up Yursugumba and to sell it for good prices’’. Besides, young people from Kagbeni see a new business in Yursagumba trade (Monk, Kagbeni, 10 April, 2011). The preparation of Yursugumba is easy; it has to be crunched and mixed with hot milk. Yarsagumba makes you strong and you can earn good money with it, it’s a great business under young people (Lila, 22 years, Johmson, 21st March, 2011). Especially the Chinese like it and pay a good price for it. A student Geography from Kathmandu tells: ‘’Yursugumba picking is just money picking’’ (21st March, 2011, Kagbeni) He means that young people from Kathmandu and Pokhara, not originating from the Himalaya regions, go up to the western districts of Manang, Mustang and Dolpo to pick Yursugamba to sell it for good prices in the city. The inhabitants of these areas see Yursugamba as an old medical plant which has to be used in a proper way and especially not picked away by outsiders. The last 5 years this Yursugamba trade has been a trend not only for outsiders but also for young people inhabiting these high mountain regions. Recently, 8 young guys picking Yursugamba in Manang district were killed by villagers (Student geography, 21st March, Kagbeni). At the moment of this killing, in the Manang district there was a system in which every village committee decided to give permits to people who wanted to pick and trade in Yursugumba in the area. In this case of killing it seemed that there were conflicts about the giving of permits to these 8 young people from the neighbouring Kaski district. This conflict has led to a change in permit and penalties in which ACAP helps to support villages in organizing permits, checks and penalties. Currently, village committee employees go into the field in their surrounding area to check for illegal persons picking Yursugumba. When they do not have a permit they are sent back or could be taken to jail (ACAP employee, Kagbeni, 23th March 2011). According to head ACAP employee in Kagbeni: ‘’Many people say Yursugumba is a great mean for sexual support, it gives you energy and you get strong’’ However, I think this is mainly psychologically since the common receipt is to mix it with milk, butter and honey and these products give energy of themselves’’ And: ‘’Young people used to work with yaks, to milk and make cheese. ‘’Nowadays they only care about Yursugamba which is a bad thing’’ (Woman Kagbeni, 63 years old, 29th March 2011). In Kagbeni, 20% of the households are involved in Yursugamba picking and trade. Concluded, except for a diversification strategy and a new way to earn money for young Nepalese, Yursugamba is a highly sensible and controversial product which can create upheaval. 67 6 VULNERABILITY ASPECTS OF KAGBENI LIVELIHOODS ‘’Vulnerability is the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to stresses associated with environmental and social change and from the absence of capacity to adapt’ (Adger, 2006, p.268) Vulnerability of livelihoods in Kagbeni is the main concept in this research. From the existing literature on vulnerability of livelihoods it has become clear that the concept of vulnerability consists of multiple aspects highly dependent on the context. The climate related exposures of climate variability and the sensitivity in water, food, energy and health security can all be determinants of the vulnerability of livelihoods. Among households, certain groups will show to be more vulnerable than other groups among different aspects. In chapter 5 it has been shown that certain livelihood strategies can be a means to soften vulnerability. However, what are the factors responsible for this vulnerability is not yet answered. Therefore, the sub questions arise: What are the main climate related exposures livelihoods have to deal with? which will be dealt with in paragraph 6.1 and: What are the main aspects that make livelihoods sensitive? which will be investigated in paragraph 6.2. First of all, the determinant of climate variability will be investigated in paragraph 6.1. In order to find an answer to the question what the main climate variability related exposures are households have to deal with, the perspectives of weather changes over the last 5 years will be explored. Besides, it is important to see which responses livelihoods use in order to cope with the effects of climate variability. This refers back to the sub question: How do livelihoods respond to their vulnerability? Secondly, exposures like climate variability can have impacts on different aspects of livelihoods like the level of food, water, energy and health security. The sensitivity of livelihoods to these exposures can be investigated by exploring the perspectives of the livelihoods of Kagbeni about these aspects. This will be done in paragraph 6.2. 6.1 Exposure: climate variability and natural hazards ‘’The main change in weather is the decrease in snowfall over the last 5 years; except for last year, snowfall has been minimal and this is bad for crop production and livestock’’ (Monk, Kagbeni) Different weather circumstances are important indicators for climate variability with possible consequences for livelihoods. Therefore, in this section changes in weather and exposures like storms and floods experienced by livelihoods of Kagbeni will be outlined. These changes influence livelihoods in different ways and therefore unfold strategies to cope with these changes. First of all, the perspectives of livelihoods of Kagbeni about climate variability and exposures are presented in section 6.1.1. This is followed up by investigating the effects of these changes which are outlined in section 6.1.2. Consequently, coping and adaptation strategies used by the livelihoods are presented in section 6.1.3. All changes mentioned are derived from a livelihood perspective; therefore it is interesting to crosscheck these to metrological data. This will be done in section 6.2.4. It will become clear that one of the main weather changes affecting the livelihoods of Kagbeni is the 68 decrease in snowfall over the last 5 years compared to the years before. Related problems are the decrease in crop production and the shortage of food supply for livestock. It has to be mentioned that changes over the last 5 years are asked compared to the years before. Since this is a relatively short period it still seems to be in the memory of the villagers which is important to get an as much as possible confident outcome. 6.1.1 Weather change and exposures over the last 5 years Kagbeni is situated in the rain shadow of the Annapurna mountain range and therefore highly depended on glacier melt water for their irrigation system. Changes in water flows derived from the rivers Dzon Chu and Kali Gandaki could have significant consequences for agricultural production and livelihoods of Kagbeni. Except for the significance of river water, snow fall is a crucial factor in crop production. Since precipitation mainly exists of snowfall due to the cold climate, rainfall seems to be a minor indicator. Other indicators taken into account are temperature and wind. The latter is a continuing feature in the region of Kagbeni. The questions asked was if there were changes in any of the weather indicators mentioned above. The answers are shown in table 14. It has to be noted that respondents who did not indicate a change in one of the weather indicators did not know or remember about any change of the specific indicator. Table 14: Total mentioned weather changes over the last 5 years compared to the years before of 30 households from Kagbeni Absolute % Snowfall 23 77 % Rainfall 17 57% Wind 11 36,7% Temperature 18 60,0 % KhaliGandaki 12 40 % Dzon Chu 8 27 % Out of table 14 it becomes clear that the majority of respondents indicate that snowfall, rainfall and temperature have been changed over the last 5 years compared to the years before. Change in snowfall seems the main factor with 77% of all respondents indicating a change regarding less snowfall over the last 5 years. Only two respondents indicate more snowfall. However, all 69 respondents indicating a decrease in snowfall mention the exception of the last year (2010) when a high level of snowfall was recognized. Of the respondents indicating a change in rainfall, 53% mentioned a decrease in rainfall while only 14% mentioned an increase. It should be noted that rainfall rather than snowfall is of minor importance for livelihoods of Kagbeni since precipitation exist for almost 90% out of snow (Head weather station Johmson). Besides, snow is the more crucial input for crop cultivation. In case of temperature, the 60 % of all respondent indicating a change, all mentioned an increase of the temperature. Furthermore inhabitants of Kagbeni indicated: ‘’20 years ago snow was up until our knees and would stay for weeks, nowadays if we are lucky snow stays a few days’’ Also: ‘’Before we could see the mountains covered with snow, nowadays only the upper part is covered’’ The 11 respondents indicating a change in wind all mentioned that wind strength has been increased and that wind flows for more hours. ‘’Nowadays the wind starts at 11 am and drops down around 5pm while before this was much shorter’’ The reason mentioned for this change in wind flows is the deforestation further down the valley, as trees are a mean of wind protection. Except for one respondent mentioning an increase of water flows in the Khali Gandaki, the rest did indicate a lowering of the water flows, especially in the Khali Gandaki. ‘’There is 2/3 less water in the Kali Gandaki then 5 years before’’ Changes in natural disasters seems a minor factor in the livelihoods of Kagbeni since only 6 respondents indicated a natural disaster over the last 5 years but not a significant change compared to the years before. A wind and snow storm apparent in 2008 was mentioned but this was not exceptional compared to previous years. One respondent clearly remembered a flood derived from a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) 20 years ago with as a consequence a higher water level in the Dzon Chu. As a conclusion it can be stated that decrease in snowfall is the most crucial weather indicator. Other changes mentioned are temperature increase and rainfall decrease. However, not the change on itself is the most important and memorable but the impact it has on the livelihoods in Kagbeni which will become clear in the following section. 6.1.2 Effects on livelihood Climate variability can have different effects on livelihoods ranging from adverse to beneficial effects. Changes are most crucial for livelihoods highly dependent on agricultural production with as main inputs precipitation and temperature. This is also applicable in the context of Kagbeni. ‘’Less snowfall is negative for our goats; last year many goats died since less grass to feed them was available’’ (inhabitant Kagbeni). This statement is made by a woman whose livelihood is dependent on goat keeping and the related activities of the sale of meat and wool. Therefore, a decrease of snowfall has a negative effect on her livelihood. Derived from the livelihoods of Kagbeni, less snowfall is the main indicator of change over the last 5 years. Crop loss and less food for livestock are the mentioned effects of this change. Crop loss mainly concerns the fact that buckwheat and barley, which are important crops in Kagbeni grow most effective when the seeds are covered under a layer of snow before coming out. Besides, livestock needs sufficient and qualitative good grass which is only available when there is enough snowfall. Altogether, snowfall is a vital need for the two main crops of buckwheat and barley which are the basic staples for Kagbeni households and most mountain livelihoods. Besides, goat keeping is shown to be an important source of income which is dependence on grass grown due to snowfall. Other crops like vegetables and fruit are less dependent on snowfall and much more on the communal irrigation system fed by the river Dzo Chu. 70 From table 15 it can be derived that a slightly higher percentage of non-indigenous households does mention effects of snowfall. However, in general there is a rather evenly spread distribution of households indicating the adverse effects of snowfall decrease. None of the households mention a positive effect due to the mentioned decrease in snowfall. Therefore, it can be stated that for 38, 9 % of the households in Kagbeni, snowfall has an adverse effect on livelihoods in Kagbeni. This includes loss of crops and the reduction of food availability for livestock. Table 15: Perceptions of the negative effect of snowfall decrease on crops and livestock among indigenous and non-indigenous households Indigenous Non indigenous Total Absolute % Absolute % Absolute % Negative effect 7 38.9 % 6 50 % 13 43.3% No effect 6 33.3 % 3 25 % 9 30% 27.8 % 3 25 % 8 26.7% 100 % 12 100 % 30 100% Do not know about effect 5 Total 18 Changes in rainfall and temperature seem to have minor effects on livelihoods. Only two respondents indicated an increase of flies because of higher temperatures while another two indicated a positive effect, namely the increase of apple production. An increase of water flowing through the Khali Gandaki River used to wash parts of agriculture land away which is highly negative for crop production. However, this problem did appear during a flooding in 2008 and is not a continuous feature. In case of the increase and duration of wind flows, three respondents mention that this has a bad effect on health since more dust creates eye and throat problems. Also apple trees are more vulnerable as more wind could destroy them. Concluded, according to the perceptions among households of Kagbeni, a decrease is snowfall over the last five years is visible, which seem to have most impact on livelihoods of Kagbeni since this is most mentioned as a change with consequences. The most vulnerable group in this case is the group depending on paid labour which is also non indigenous of Kagbeni. However, responses to this weather variability are important and will be discussed in the next section. 6.1.3 Responses ’Kagbeni has a good irrigation system which compensate the loss of snowfall’ (inhabitant Kagbeni) ‘’Less snowfall is worse for surrounding villages since they depend on snowfall for their crop cultivation rather than river water and therefore irrigation systems’’ (inhabitant Kagbeni) 71 The above statements are mentioned by two villagers who did indicate a snowfall decrease but did not consider this has being negative for their own livelihoods. The value of the irrigation systems becomes clear out of these statements. In general the communal irrigation system, based on a rotation mechanism is the main system that keeps agricultural production in balance. The underlying reason of this most heard response to a decrease in snowfall and rainfall is the fact that water availability is one of the most important factors in the livelihoods of Kagbeni. The main input for agriculture is water, and since 83.3 % of the households in Kagbeni is dependent on agricultural related income sources for their existence, water in the form of especially snowfall is of high significance. Snow is necessary for the cultivation of main staples like buckwheat needing snow cover in harvest season in order to develop their seeds. In total, 20% of the respondents mentioned an adaptation strategy for any or more of the mentioned weather changes. In case of goat keeping, 37.5% of the livelihoods keeping goats do store grass so they are able to feed the goats the next year in case there is not enough grass available due to less snowfall. When the amount of grass is still insufficient they either buy grass or irrigate parts of land to grow grass. It has to be mentioned that these livelihoods mainly depend on goat keeping as a primary source of income and have a relatively big amount of goats which need grass. In case of an increasing temperature an often made statement is that apple production is becoming more popular and a new mean to diversify income. Until a few years ago apple production was a new phenomenon, especially compared to the production in Marpha. Nowadays, due to a combination of an increasing temperature as well as more awareness about the way to produce apples, the production has increased and has become one of the future pillars in the village (see Box 2). Another comment is that the increase of temperature has caused an increase of flies which leads to crop diseases and could cause health problems. Since it is not allowed to use pesticides due to ACAP regulations there is no coping strategy to directly avoid diseases. However, this is still a minor problem but could become more apparent in future. Strong and long during wind flows are an always existing phenomenon in the area of Kagbeni. Inhabitants wear protection like masks which help to avoid the inhalation of dusk since throat problems are an often seen problem. Washing away of land due to small floods is a phenomenon that is hard to cope with since the agriculture fields are most situated on the riverside and therefore highly vulnerable. The other 80% of the households not mentioning any adaptation strategies did indicate that there is no adaptation strategy: ‘’you cannot change the climate’’ (Inhabitant Kagbeni). Another inhabitant did declare: ‘’the climate is the same but people have changed’’ This woman thinks that a bad agricultural production is not due to climate variability but to the change of people’s behaviour. One of the reasons is that more children attend school and therefore do not work in the field or are less experienced. A rather different strategy and often made practice is praying to Buddha and hoping for a good year with much snowfall. Buddhism seems to be of importance in everyday live including agriculture and most villagers do highly believe in this. 6.1.4 Livelihood perspectives compared to meteorological data Climate statistics were found in the nearest metrological station in Johmson, 7.5 km south of Kagbeni. Figure 5 shows the precipitation over the last 12 years including snow and rain. In the semidesert cold climate of Kagbeni, precipitation exists for almost 90 % out of snowfall (Head weather 72 station Johmson). In paragraph 6.1.1 it became clear that 77 % of the households in Kagbeni mention a decrease in snowfall and 30 % an increase in rainfall over the last 5 years compared to the years before. Also, an increase in temperature was mentioned among 60 % of the households. Figure 5 shows an increase of precipitation over the last 5 years compared to the years before. The perceptions of households in Kagbeni would suggest that precipitation has been decreased since most of the mention a decrease in snowfall and less an increase in rainfall. However, since the meteorological data gives the total precipitation including both rain and snowfall, a good comparison between meteorological statistics and the perceptions of households is difficult to make. Figure 5: Precipitation Johmson, Mustang, 1999-2010 Source: Johmson metrological station In case of temperature, 60 % of the households mentioned an increase over the last 5 years compared to the years before. This cannot be derived from metrological statistics collected from Johmson metrological station. There could be several constraints for these rather contradictory outcomes between perceptions and statistical sources. First of all, the memories of respondents could be different than the reality. Secondly, the metrological data could not be accurate. Also, the fact that precipitation includes both snow and rainfall could cause disruptions. Eventually, another reason could be the geographical situation of the metrological station in Johmson 7.5km south of Kagbeni. Since mountain regions have a rapid changeable climate this latter reason seems the most probable. Besides, Hahn (2008) confirms that ‘’climate projections could mask vulnerabilities and the differences of them between communities’’ 73 6.2 Sensitivity Sensitivity includes the responsiveness of a specific system to exposure like climate variability or natural hazards. ‘’The more a system is sensitive, the more vulnerable a system is towards exposure’’ (IPCC, 2007) The concept of sensitivity is being outlined by investigating selected issues deemed to be of high significance for livelihoods in Kagbeni. The topics discussed in this chapter are sequentially food, water, energy and health status among households of Kagbni. For every topic the main problems and responses are discussed. Eventually, the whole chapter gives an insight of the importance of these basic needs in life, applied to the context of livelihoods in Kagbeni. 6.2.1 Food In Kagbeni, all food used to come from agricultural production and the keeping of livestock in the area itself. The main staple was barley, buckwheat, wheat, potatoes and vegetables like cauliflowers and beans. Due to the harsh mountain climate characterized by desert like circumstances the range of food products has never been wide. While lower situated areas do favour a monsoon climate, Kagbeni is an oasis in a desert landscape depending on irrigation fed agriculture deriving from glacier melt water. Therefore, food security has always been a challenge. Although food security is still not stable for all inhabitants, new developments like the road construction increases the choices of food and possibly a more stable food security (see paragraph 7.2). Table 16: Struggle to get enough food among indigenous and non-indigenous households Indigenous Non indigenous Total Absolute % Absolute % Absolute % Yes 8 44,4 % 6 50 % 14 46, 7% No 10 55, 6 % 6 50 % 16 53,3 % Total 18 100 % 12 100 % 30 100 % Although new developments have improved food security among inhabitants there exist differences in access to food supply. It would be presumable that in general the non-indigenous group, having a relatively low income diversification does have more problems to get enough food during the year. However, out of statistics it can be concluded that there exist a weak relation between the fact that 74 a household is indigenous or non-indigenous. 3 A significant observation is the fact that all households in Kagbeni do import food products from outside Kagbeni to supplement their food supply. Products like rice, salt, tea and sugar are brought from Johmson and Pohkara. These products are cheaper or not available in Kagbeni itself. For example, rice used to be a luxury product only available at specific celebration times or during the time of the Himalayan salt trade. Nowadays, rice has become the main food staple in the daily life of livelihoods and almost replaced barley and buckwheat. Besides, luxury products like chips, chocolate, sweets and mineral water are being brought from Pokhara for supplying tourist’s needs. However, a total of almost 47% of the households still indicate to have troubles to get enough food during the year. The main reasons mentioned for this is that food prices are too high during the monsoon period from June until September, when there is less food supply coming from Pokhara. Rain can cause traffic delay and disruption and in the monsoon season it is often not possible to travel and transport goods from Pokhara to Kathmandu. In that case, queues in line for food are normal phenomena (see table 17). Table 17 Reasons for struggle to get enough food on rank by 14 households Reasons for food struggle % of households High food prices and too less income (whole year) 35.7 Queues for food because of less supply due to bad road conditions (Rain season, June-Sept) 28.5 Shortage food (Wintertime, OctMarch) 7 Tourists need more food 7 Depended on gifts from monastery which is too less and not stable (whole year) 7 To be able to cope with a food shortage, the 14% of the households indicating not to have enough food during the year due to high food prices and their low incomes, offer their labour to work on someone else fields, or, increase their working hours in times of real shortage. Another 14%, 3 The Chi2 test is used to test the hypothesis. Because 44, 4% of the cells have counted less than 5 the Fisher’s T test is used as an alternative. The zero hypotheses is not valid as a consequence that there exist a relationship between the struggle to find enough food and the originality of a household. Cramer’s V has a value of 0.709 which indicates a strong relation. 75 borrows money in times of food shortage to be able to buy the necessary food items. A traditional method to respond to a possible food shortage or a bad agricultural season is to save seeds and crops for the next year. 54% of the households do save seeds to be able to grow crops the next year. Besides, 57% of the households save crops like cauliflower, beans and apples to eat during times of food shortage. Not mentioned but a ‘’taken for granted’’ situation is the fact that in winter season the village is covered in snow and no cropping or harvesting takes place. In this period food from Kagbeni itself is not direct available. In order to cope with this food shortage, one used to save crops in order to have sufficient food during this season. Besides, seasonal migration is a mean to cope with shortage in winter season. 6.2.2 Water Water is recognized as the main basic need in life for people all over the world. However, among the world population exists huge differences in access and quality of water. In the context of Kagbeni, water is the direct engine of livelihood existence since except for drinking water, all agricultural production and therefore food supply is depended on water availability. In this paragraph, perspectives on water availability, drinking water quality and water with as purpose agricultural production are discussed. The main source of drinking water is originating from the River Dzon Chu. To be able to use this water, public tabs connected with lines to the river, are spread in Kagbeni so inhabitants can fill their tanks, pot and pans. The nine tabs were installed ten years ago and sponsored by CARE. Although these tabs do allow villagers to collect drinking water, 80% of the households in Kagbeni indicate to have problems having insufficient access to proper drinking water. Table 18 Drinking water problem among indigenous and non-indigenous households Indigenous Non indigenous Total Absolute % Absolute % Absolute % Drink water problem 14 77.8 % 10 83.3 % 24 80% No drink water problem 4 22.2 % 2 16.7 % 6 20% Total 18 100 % 12 100 % 30 100 % The major problems mentioned are the lack of qualitative good water in summer season and the freezing of water in the winter season. In summer season, from April until July, the glaciers situated on the border with Tibet Autonomous Region are melting. The rivers fill up with water and tights are high. The water flows bring mud and stones with it which makes it unable to drink. To be able to cope with this problem 50% of the households use filters as a form of sediment sinking to take the 76 substances out of the water. However, this is not a waterproof strategy since the water not gets free of all mud and sand. Another strategy to supplement drinking water is to collect rain and snow. 53, 3% of the households has one or more tanks on the roof to collect rain water and snow. This water is highly useful but mostly not sufficient. Besides, two households mentioned to collect water from the Kali Gandaki River since this water has a better quality. Why then, is this water is not used as an alternative for the Dzon Chu River water. The main constraint is the high costs in order to get the water of the Kali Gandaki. Since the Kali Gandaki is situated in the valley beneath Kagbeni and not like the Dzon Chu on a similar altitude, water has to be pulled up out of the valley. Contradictory to the summer season, in winter season, from November until February, the quantity of water is too less since tabs are often frozen. Although, due to winter migration, the majority of inhabitants have left the village, the remainders have problems to get enough drinking water. The used strategy is to wait during day time when the sun melts the ice away so inhabitants are able to collect drinking water at the end of the day.The combination of the lack of sufficient qualitative drinking water and an increasing demand for drinking water, due to amongst others tourism, causes discussion and upheaval among the villagers. At the moment of research, (February-May 2010) village meetings were hold because of drinking water related problems. Also, during the interviews it became clear that the main current problem household’s face is the availability of drinking water. Furthermore, the majority of households do foresee drinking water problems in future. A possible solution negotiated by village leaders and villager during the time of research is to construct a water line from a mountain water source behind the nearby village of Tiri to Kagbeni in order to supply clean drink water. However, to be able to realise this, more financial support is needed. Kagbeni VDC has been asking ACAP for help but they are not eager to support (Ex village leader, 24th March, 2011). In 2007, when this problem was not foreseen by the majority of the villagers CARE Nepal proposed a project to construct a line bringing water from a new source behind Kagbeni down to the village. CARE would construct 80% of the line and the villagers had to walk the other 20% of the distance. However, the villagers did reject the proposal since they did not want to walk to the tab because of the according to them dangerous route. One villager: ‘’We regret that we rejected the proposal of CARE a few years ago because now we are facing a drink water problem’’ Except for the lack of qualitative drinking water, there exist differences in access to available tabs and drinking water among households in Kagbeni. The southern part of the villages hosts the cheapest renting housing and is mainly populated by non-indigenous inhabitants who do not have good access to tabs to collect water. They have to share the water flow with households more upstream and therefore hardly get sufficient drinking water. In order to cope with this problem, 4 of the 100 households have bought their own pipeline which goes straight from the river to their houses. Although this seems a rather good system the costs are a high 50.000 NR (500 euro) per household a year, only affordable for a few households. Water used for agricultural purposes Like drinking water, the source for irrigation water is derived from the Dzon Chu River. From there the water flows through a complex network of irrigation canals into the field spread around Kagbeni. During the winter season the irrigation system is closed for three months. The rest of the year irrigation is needed in order to cultivate crops. After winter season, the irrigation system needs reparation and improvements. Therefore the monks choose the day on which all indigenous 77 households of Kagbeni have to work on the irrigation system in order be prepared for the new season. On that particular day villagers used to be dressed in traditional clothing and pray for a good season. Out of researchers observation it became clear that this day is one of the most important communal happenings in the village of Kagbeni. Besides this traditional system, the other particular feature of the irrigation system is that it works through a rotating system. Not all households can use the irrigation water at the same time due to insufficient water flows. Therefore, the village leader visits the households and tells them when they are allowed to use the irrigation system. This happens through the opening of the irrigation canal situated along the specific land plot. Normally the water flows for one day every two weeks per household (ex village leader, 23th March, 2011). In general, all households are satisfied with the irrigation system. The only main comment is the shortage in irrigation water during the spring season when irrigation water is scarce. However, households mention that this has been an always existing natural phenomenon since in spring glaciers are started to melt and it takes time when rivers are filled up with the water. Although the traditional irrigation system has been improved and changed for thousands of years, according to the villagers it still needs improvement in order to reach a most efficient water use by which at least as possible water is wasted. This includes a more sophisticated organisation of the irrigation system by making more efficient canals that steer the water flows to the fields and losing at least water as possible (Inhabitant Kagbeni). 6.2.3 Energy In the arid climate of Kagbeni characterized by plain fields, although trees used to be scarce, it has always been the main energy supply for cooking and heating. For thousands of years forest was cut, collected and brought to the villages by horses. Besides this dependency on wood as energy source, dung of cows has always been an energy supplement to be used for cooking. This dung is also used as an isolation material on roofs of houses to avoid leaking and to preserve heat. Due to unlimited wood cutting and the lack of regulation, nowadays households in Kagbeni face severe wood shortages. Villages at a lower altitude down the valley have less problems concerning wood availability since forests are more apparent than at the higher altitudes of Kagbeni. To avoid further degradation of the quantity of forest, ACAP has set up regulations for forest preservation in the region. After negotiation from both the VDC and ACAP specific rules for forest access were being set up for the households in Kagbeni. Although restricted, only indigenous households are allowed to use forest which is situated behind the nearby village of Tiri. They are allowed to cut specific trees that are marked. The forest of Tiri is a four hour walk and most wood is collected by men and transported by horses. However, due to the new road construction tractors are a new mean of transport used to transport wood. Out of table 18 it becomes clear that the division of households having energy problems or the ones that do not is evenly distributed among indigenous and non-indigenous households. Amongst the 66, 7 % of Kagbeni households mentioning energy problems the main comments are the lack of access to wood and the high price due to its scarcity. Alternatives used in order to cope with these problems are gas, kerosene, solar energy and dung which can be seen in table 20. 78 Table 19: Struggle to get enough energy sources among indigenous and non-indigenous households Indigenous Absolute Non indigenous Total % Absolute % Absolute % Yes 12 66,7 % 8 66,7 % 20 66,7% No 6 33,3 % 4 33,3 % 10 33,3% Total 18 100 % 12 100% 30 100% Table 20: Energy sources among indigenous and non-indigenous households Indigenous Non indigenous Total Absolute % Absolute % Absolute % Wood 1 5,5 % 2 16, 7 % 3 10,0 % Gas 1 5,5 % 2 16, 7 % 3 10,0 % Wood, gas 6 33,3 % 4 33,3 % 10 33,3 % Wood, dung 0 0,0 % 1 8,3 % 1 3,3 % Wood, gas, kerosene 3 16,7 % 1 8,3 % 4 13,3 % Gas, kerosene 0 0,0 % 2 16, 7 % 2 6,7 % Wood, gas, solar 3 16,7 % 0 16, 7 % 3 10,0 % Wood, dung, gas, kerosene, solar 4 22,2 % 0 0,0 % 4 13,3 % Total 18 100 % 12 100 % 30 100 % Except for the 10% of the households using wood as their only energy source, 87% use wood as a supplement for heating. If households have the financial possibilities to buy gas as alternative to wood they do so. Besides, kerosene although not in high amounts, is used by households. Furthermore solar energy is another relative new energy alternative which ACAP introduces and promotes. However, ACAP only supplies transport and technical support of solar panels and not the costs. A solar panel costs 250.000 Nepalese Rupees which most households cannot afford. Still, a total of 24% of the households in Kagbeni does use solar energy. It becomes clear that none of the non-indigenous households is able to afford solar energy. They have few opportunities since they can only collect wood in small amounts from the ground. Otherwise they can either buy wood or alternative energy sources. However, since the prices of wood have increased from 5NR (0, 05 euro) per kilogram to 50NR (0, 50 euro) per kilogram this is a financial constraint. 79 6.3 Conclusion This chapter has given insights in the exposure to climate variability and the sensibility aspects of livelihoods of Kagbeni. First of all, it has become clear that the main climate variability visible among households in Kagbeni, influencing several livelihood aspects, is the decrease in snowfall over the last five years compared to the previous years. Other changes are, decrease in rainfall, increase of rainfall, increase in temperature, and, the increase in duration and strengthens of wind flows. However, the main mentioned indicator is snowfall. The underlying reason is that in the context of Kagbeni snowfall is most crucial for crop cultivation including food for human and livestock. Except for irrigation fed agriculture, livelihoods depend on snowfall for their crop cultivation. Therefore, a decrease in snowfall does have major influences like the decrease of crop revenue for especially buckwheat and grass. Strategies used to adapt are the increased use of the existing irrigation system and the storage of grass to feed animals. Besides, grass is irrigated in order to have enough food to feed especially goats. Secondly, as part of the sensitivity of livelihoods, it is obvious that the factor most responsible for livelihoods sensitivity of Kagbeni, is the lack of qualitative good drinking water. The main problem is the shortage of qualitative good water due to contamination of river water in spring and frozen tab water in winter. Responses to these shortages are the storage of rainwater and snow on the roofs and the filtering of river water. Solutions mentioned are the connection with new sources than the Dzon Chu River by installing new pipe lines. However, the main constraints are the costs attached to these installations. On the other side, in general, households in Kagbeni are satisfied about the water availability for agricultural purposed activities. The communal irrigation system is the main supplier in this aspect and is working stable although maintenance is always needed. In general, food security is stable. However, in total, 47% of the households mention to have troubles either in rainy season or winter season when there is either too less supply due to bad road conditions or there is not harvest possible. Eventually, a mix of strategies used to cope with food shortage, seems to be apparent among households. Saving of seeds and crops, seasonal migration and the supply of food from outside the village are existing strategies. The question remains what the influence is of the new road construction on food supply. This will be explored in paragraph 7.1. Besides drink water availability, energy supply for cooking and eating is the second biggest problem among all households of Kagbeni. The traditional energy source of wood is scarce and due to regulations only available in small quantities. The main alternative is gas and in smaller quantities kerosene and solar energy. However, the latter sources are only affordable for better off households. Gas is the cheapest alternative, however even this source is too expensive for most nonindigenous households. Solar energy is seen as a clean and effective alternative, especially on the high altitude of 3000 meter where radiation is strong. A fifth of the households use this energy source; however this is too expensive for most households. Although the above explained outcomes are visible among all households and are the main factors responsible for the vulnerability of livelihoods of Kagbeni, the group of non-indigenous households faces most constraints. Also, they see most impact of a decrease in snowfall since they are almost all depended on agriculture related activities. Eventually, the biggest division seen in sensibility factors among indigenous and nonindigenous households can be recognized in access to energy supply. 80 7 The opening up of Kagbeni The opening up of remote communities to external influences and areas can be due to different developments like infrastructure, tourism or telecommunications as has become clear out of the existing literature. The precise content of the opening up of a community is depended on the specific context and the developments visible in that area. Besides, the influence an opening up has on livelihoods of a community can differ among livelihoods and communities. In the context of Kagbeni two relatively recent developments responsible for the opening up of the village to outside influences can be distinguished. The first is the road constructed in 2006 that connects Kagbeni with places down the valley, up to the main centre of Pokhara. The second is tourism, taking in an increasingly important role over the last decennia. According to households of Kagbeni, these two developments have adverse as well as beneficial impacts on their livelihoods. Besides, they influence each other in different ways. Following up the previous chapters, the question arises in which way does the opening up of Kagbeni influences the vulnerability of Kagbeni livelihoods. What are the perceptions of the livelihoods about these two developments? And do differences exist about these perceptions between groups of households in the village? It is hypothesized that tourism has a positive influence on livelihoods and therefore decreases vulnerability of livelihoods. Besides, development of infrastructure is considered to have a positive effect on livelihoods and decreases their vulnerability. If this is the case for the livelihoods of Kagbeni is the question and hopefully will become clear in this study. 7.1 Tourism perspectives In chapter 4 an introduction was made about the role of ACAP in Kagbeni and the Mustang area in general. It became clear that a critical attitude of inhabitants towards ACAP and their employees is not overrated. Contradictory interests are the main underlying reason being responsible for this. Although tourism is into a certain extent attached to ACAPs interests, this does not mean inhabitants do not profit of tourism. In Kagbeni, 20% of the households own a lodge or a hotel while another 27% of the households are involved in other tourism affiliated jobs like porter or the renting out of horses. However, other households do not or only slightly profit of tourism. Therefore different perceptions are visible about the role of tourism in the livelihoods of Kagbeni (see table 21) As table 21 shows, the majority, 56, 7% of the households, indicate tourism as positive for their own household as well as the village. These households are directly or indirectly involved in tourism affiliated business. They see tourism mainly as an income source for their own household as well as a positive development for the whole village. Another 20% do see tourism as positive for the village but not for their own households in particular. Another 13, 3% does not see any benefit of tourism, not for their own households neither the village. The last 20, 0 % has a neutral attitude which means they do not care about any positive or negative aspects of tourism for neither their own household nor the village. 81 Table 21: Tourism perspectives among indigenous and non-indigenous households Indigenous Non indigenous Total Absolute % Absolute % Absolute % Positive household and village 13 72,2 % 4 33,3 % 17 56,7% Only positive for village 3 16,7 % 3 25,0 % 6 20,0% Negative for household and village 2 11,1 % 2 16, 7 % 4 13,3% Neutral 0 0,0 % 3 25,0 % 3 20,0 % Total 18 100 % 12 100 % 30 100 % First of all, households indicating positive aspects, mention that the economic level and prosperity of the village in general increases and that their households profit either in a direct or indirect way of tourism. Consequently, this is positive for the majority of households and the village. This main argument leads to several sub arguments like: -It creates employment in lodges, hotels, shops and for guides and porters -It indirectly benefits farmers who sell their products to tourism affiliated business -Farmers can sell their products for a better price since demand is higher -Lifestyle is changing because tourism bring improvement of food, clothing and facilities -This leads to improvement of hygienic standards -It increases external help of NGO’s including support of health care -It increases financial support for monastery and school -It creates new and more knowledge and civilization On the other side, these positive aspects are not benefiting all households. A clear difference can be recognized between indigenous and non-indigenous households. Table 19 shows a more spread division in attitudes among non-indigenous households then among indigenous households. While 72 % of the indigenous group favours tourism for their own household and village this is a much lower percentage among indigenous households, namely 33%. However compared to indigenous households, 25 % of the non-indigenous group favours tourism for their village which is slightly higher than the 16, 7 % among indigenous households. The main clarification of the above outcomes is that non-indigenous households do not own land and consequently have fewer opportunities to establish a tourism business like a lodge, hotel or restaurant. Only 7 % of the non-indigenous group is directly involved in tourism as being a porter or guide but not as a lodge, hotel or restaurant owner and 11, 1% of the noon-indigenous group 82 sometimes rent out room in busy pilgrimage times. Among indigenous households 80% is indirectly or directly involved in tourism. Therefore, a much bigger part of the indigenous group profits of tourism. However, still 25 % of the non-indigenous group is tolerant in the fact that they see tourism as positive for the village not for their own household. Negative attitudes towards tourism are slightly higher among indigenous households with 11, 1% compared to non-indigenous households with 16,7 %. Main negative comments toward tourism are: ''The division between rich and poor households is increasing due to tourism'' (inhabitant Kagbeni) ......''It is a benefit for them (lodge owners) but since we do not have any capital to be able to invest it does not give us profit''...(inhabitant Kagbeni) Negative attitudes towards tourism also include arguments concerning the increase of waste and pollution. Plastic bottles and batteries are buried under the ground while tin and glass is collected by ACAP. Moreover, since tourism increases demand of food, food prices are getting higher which has the greatest impact on the non-indigenous households which are less prosperous. Another argument against tourism is the diminishing of cultural habits and practices since the new generation is influenced by external developments like new music and clothes. However, one respondent asked the question, is this cultural change necessarily bad? At an overall, the positive aspects of tourism offset the negative aspects for most households in Kagbeni. However, a relatively small group does not get any benefit of tourism which causes an increasing gap between them and the ones who do profit. Since tourist statistics are changing which among others is a consequence of the new road construction, it will be the interesting to see what the future will bring and how livelihoods will respond to this. The next subchapter will discuss the perspectives towards the new road. 7.2 Road perspectives The newest infrastructural development in the Mustang district coming all the way up to Kagbeni is the road constructed in 2006. As explained in section 4.3.2. This road has been a highly controversial issue and has created a great change in different aspects of the livelihoods of the region. This section shows the different perceptions of livelihoods of Kagbeni about the new road. Moreover, it gives insights in the radical way such a development can change a village and their livelihoods. Table 22 shows the different perceptions about the influence of the road. Compared to tourism perspectives; road perspectives seem more related to attitudes towards the road in general. That will say not particularly beneficial or adversely for one households but for a combination of the village in general and households. Tourism seems more directly beneficial or adversely for a household compared to the new road. On the other side, since tourism and the new road will show conflicting interests some households are more critical than others and have a combined positive and negative attitude. Consequently, table 22 shows that the majority of households (43, 3%) has positive as well as negative attitude towards the road. In general, a rather evenly spread division exist among the perspectives of both indigenous as well as non-indigenous households. However, among the indigenous and non-indigenous groups a significant appearance is 83 that a slightly higher number of non-indigenous households compared to indigenous households have a combined positive and negative attitude towards the road. This can be clarified by the relatively high number of indigenous households involved in tourism (80 %) compared to the nonindigenous households (18%) involved in tourism. The first group mentioning the negative aspect of the road namely the decrease in the number of tourists due to the destruction of part of the trekking route, and the positive aspect of the easier transport of good and materials in order to supply tourists. In general, it can be concluded that there exists a range of different perception towards the new road among both the indigenous as well as the non-indigenous group. Table 22: Road perspectives among indigenous and non-indigenous households Indigenous Non indigenous Total Absolute % Absolute % Absolute % Positive 5 27,8 % 4 33,3 % 9 30,0 % Negative 4 22,2 % 2 16,7 % 6 20,0 % Positive and negative 9 50,0 % 4 33,3 % 13 43,3 % No influence 0 0,0 % 2 16,7 % 2 6,7 % Total 18 100 % 12 100 % 30 100 % ’’It is a shame that we do not have horse competitions anymore… the new road has caused an increase in the sakel of horses and a purchase of motorbikes, and this all so sudden…’’ The new generation is not able to ride on horses but they are on motorbikes’’ (Inhabitant Kagbeni) This inhabitant is disappointed about this change since he mentions a change in cultural habits which is of high value for him. Horses have been used for thousands of years and are still being used but much less and in different ways. In general, the road has replaced transport means from animals to motorized vehicles. This change has been relatively rapid, in not even 20 years motorbikes and jeeps have been replacing a big part of the animals used in previous years as a transport mean. Besides this change in transport means causing a decrease of cultural traditions, moreover cultural change in general is mentioned as a highly negative aspect of the road. The new generation does have access to new influences of cities and the outside world. They purchase new clothes, music, mobile phones and motorbikes and come in contact with the English language and western influences. ‘’Before the road construction our youth knew Tibetan songs and the monks did not listen western music’’ (Inhabitant Kagbeni) However, if this change is per se bad is the question. Still, traditions are kept alive and young people mention that it is possible to use new technologies while keeping their cultural habits alive. In case 84 of the new road entering the ‘’ Old Kingdom of Upper Mustang’’ where traditional Tibetan living style is still intact and experienced Lama of Kagbeni states: ‘’I hope the road planned to be constructed into Upper Mustang does not start because it will destroy the Upper Mustang culture and it as a whole (Lama 30th March, 2011). Also an ex village leader mentions: ‘’although some people will benefit of the planned road for Upper Mustang. The disadvantages are bigger than the advantages since the old Upper Mustang will be destroyed’’ (Inhabitant Kagbeni). These comments show the statements of inhabitants in favour of keeping the culture habits alive instead of the advantages the new road could bring to many inhabitants. However, 30% of the households indicate only positive aspects of the road while 43% indicates positive as well as negative aspects with the positive aspects seen in table 23. Table 23: Positive aspects ranking from most to least mentioned by 21 households Positive aspects Absolute number mentioned by households Easier transport for people and goods 10 Cheaper goods 7 Food supply more stable 2 Better access to health care 1 Better price and opportunities for farmers from 1 Kagbeni The most obvious change for livelihoods is the easy access the road has created to other villages and cities. Before the construction of the road people and goods were transported by animals like mules, donkeys and horses or went by food to villages down the valley in Lower Mustang and Pokhara. Transport by feet to Pokhara took 10 days while it took 7 days by horse, mule or donkey. Nowadays it takes two days by bus and one day by jeep. ‘’At that time Pokhara felt very far away while at this moment we can reach it in 2 days’’ (villagers, 24th March).This saving of travel time has as a consequence that certain products and goods have become cheaper. Before the road construction 1 kg of goods cost 15 NPR while nowadays this is reduced to 5 NPR. Products like rice have become much cheaper since it is easily transported from down the valleys were rice is cultivated. On the other side, due to competition original products from Kagbeni like buckwheat have increased in price. Nowadays, rice has almost replaced buckwheat as the main staple for livelihoods. In the context of Kagbeni, the increase of prices has advantages for farmers cultivating apples, apricots and peaches which are highly demanded by people from surrounding villages, Pokhara and Kathmandu. The new road has made transport easier and cheaper and especially apple production has become one of the future pillars of Kagbeni. Besides, few mentioned but still significant advantages of the 85 road are a more stable food supply and better access to health care. The latter also includes the existence of an ambulance in Kagbeni which is able to transport people down to Johmson and Pokhara in emergency cases. Although these advantages benefit most households in a sort of way, negative aspects are also visible and even solely mentioned by 20% of Kagbeni households. Table 24: Negative aspects of roads on ranking from most to least mentioned from 19 Kagbeni households Negative aspects Absolute number mentioned Less tourist due to route destruction 11 Increase of dust and air pollution due to traffic 3 Destruction land 2 Bad influence culture and religion 2 Takes away jobs 1 By far, the main mentioned negative aspect is the decrease in tourist numbers due to the road construction which has destroyed part of the old trekking route. This affects a big part of the households in Kagbeni since 50% is in a sort of way directly involved in tourism while even more others are indirectly involved. Besides, competition among lodge and hotel owners is increasingly apparent since the capacity to hosts tourist is too big for the demand. Even more, there is a development in new established hotels which are built on the outskirts of the village. Eventually, this combination could lead to a disappointed result for several households. At the moment of research households owning relatively old teahouses, which has been used to hosts travellers and pilgrims for decennia, have problems to keep u with the newly established lodges. These have more luxury services which attracts Western tourists. The second main negative aspect of the road influencing livelihoods is the increase of dust and pollution due to mainly jeep traffic. Since the climate is already characterized by drought and wind creating lots of dust, the air is even more polluted when jeeps come along. Furthermore, destruction of field due to road construction, the decrease in culture and the replacement of former jobs are affecting a few households. Concluded, the road construction brings the majority of livelihoods of Kagbeni advantages which are seen as more significant than the disadvantages. However, a relatively small group does not see benefit of the road since they are not able to use the road because they cannot afford the travel fees. For the households being able to pay transport fees products from outside Kagbeni the road gives benefits. Besides, since food prices of food derived of Kagbeni have been increased due to competition some less prosperous households have difficulties to afford food while others like apple farmers see an increase in their incomes as apple are sold for a better price in villages down the valley and Pokhara. 86 7.3 Conclusion This chapter has shown that there exists a range of negative and positive perceptions about the opening up of Kagbeni due to tourism and the new road construction. Tourism has been playing a central role in the livelihoods of Kagbeni for more than thirty years while the new road has been a relatively new development as it has been constructed in 2006. These two developments have been beneficial for some households while adverse for others. Besides, the outcomes show they influence in each other in a positive as well as in a negative way. Therefore rather conflicting interests exists among tourism as well as road perspectives. In general, tourism has been a job facilitator and an economic engine for the livelihoods of Kagbeni for decennia. Although the majority of livelihoods are involved in tourism, the extent of benefitis among households differs. While some own a lodge, others have a job as porter or guide and again others does have no tourism affiliated jobs but may only benefit in a indirect way by selling agricultural products. It has become clear that tourism is benefiting the ones involved in tourism who are by far indigenous households of Kagbeni. On the other side, non-indigenous households do not or only slightly see profits. Therefore, the main critic is that tourism increases the division between rich and poor households. Other critics are the increase in waste and pollution. On the other side it is believed that due to tourism hygienic standards and civilization has been increased. The new road construction has been influencing these tourism perspectives. The main concern is that due to the destruction of a great part of the trekking route, created by the new road, tourism patterns are and will change in future. Among Kagbeni households and especially households involved in tourism, the main fear which already has been recognized is that less Western tourists visit Kagbeni. The main reason is that these tourists avoid part of the route since the road has decreased the serenity and experience of the trekking route. On the other side, more domestic and pilgrims has been visiting Kagbeni. However, households involved in tourism prefer Western tourists as they spend more money. In general, the new road has made transport cheaper and easier and therefore has increased the availability of food and goods like energy sources and building materials from outside Kagbeni. Besides, the road has created opportunities for among others apple trade which is a relatively new development in Kagbeni. Although these developments seem to be positive, they are only beneficial for households who can afford to pay travel fees. Just like the perspectives about tourism, the main critic of the new road is that is increases the gap between rich and poor households of Kagbeni, which can be stated as the differences between indigenous households and non-indigenous households. However, compared to tourism the new road has reached more households in a positive way then tourism does. Except for improved access and trade opportunities, education and health possibilities have been increased. On the other side, the new road has brought more dust and air pollution and influences Tibetan culture in a rather negative way. 87 8 DISCUSSION CHAPTER 8.1 Introduction This chapter will give a comprehensive reflection on the main results of the present study compared to the selected existing literature and studies. The Livelihood Vulnerability Index (Hahn, 2008) including the concepts of climate variability, adaptive capacity and sensitivity are determinants of vulnerability investigated in this research. In this study, to the concept of sensitivity including food, drinking water and health, a fourth aspect is added, namely energy. This aspect seems to be of high relevance in the context of Kagbeni. During this research and the analysis of results, it became clear that a difference exists in vulnerability aspects between indigenous households and non-indigenous households in Kagbeni. The underlying reasons are the differences in rights between these households. This primarily consists of the lack of landownership among non-indigenous households. Besides, they are excluded from important rights like forest access and community involvement, including village meetings. Therefore, it is considered that non-indigenous households are more vulnerable and worse off than indigenous households. In table 25 the main results for different aspects among Kagbeni households and between indigenous households and non-indigenous households are compared and reflected with the existing literature and were possible with national or regional statistics derived from the Central Bureau Statistics Nepal. This matrix will be a guideline in order to discuss the several aspects of vulnerability as it gives a comprehensive overview of the main outcomes. In order to clearly create a reflection of this study, in sequence the following topics and components will be discussed. First of all the focus is on income sources and assets among Kagbeni households. Then, the component of sensitivity will be discussed, followed by adaptive capacity. Eventually, perspectives about the new road construction will be discussed. Picture 7: View of Kagbeni in late afternoon with in the front the Kali Gandaki River 88 Table 25: Outcomes of vulnerability factors among Kagbeni households Aspects Kagbeni households Indigenous households Nonindigenous households Literature (Nepal, general) % of households owning private land (landownership) 50 % 90 % 0% -Landless households are more vulnerable (e.g Dulal, 2010. Senbeta, 2009. Ghimere, 2010) Total Nepal: 25 % (Nepal 2001) Social networks (here: attendance village meetings) Female households 60 % 100 % 0% Households that are excluded from major decision making processes are more vulnerable (Dulal, 2010) 23 % 33 % 8% -Female headed households are more vulnerable (e.g Lacey &Sinai, 1996. Senbata 2009. Hahn, 2008.) of headed -Female headed households are less vulnerable (Dhoubhabel, 2011) Total Nepal: 9 % (2009) Household size average 5.5 6,7 3,2 -Households with a bigger household size are more vulnerable (e.g Makoka, 2008. Orbeta, 2006) Total Nepal: 5,7 (2009) Education (at least one household member attending a kind of education at the moment of research) 73 % 67 % 83 % -Education is a mean to reduce vulnerability (e.g. Laigon and Schechter 2003. Dulal 2010) Total Nepal: 53 % (2005) More than one income source (own/paid agriculture, tourism, remittances)= livelihood diversification 47 % 73 % 25 % Own cultivation/livestock 43 % 72 % 0% Paid labour in agriculture/ construction 23 % 11 % 42 % -Livelihood diversification helps to decrease vulnerability (Ellis, 2000) -More vulnerable groups see a higher rate of paid labour in agriculture/construction (Ghimere, 2010) 89 Tourism source as income 47 % 61 % 25 % -Tourism is a good potential for livelihood diversification into the nonfarm economy (Meyer, 2010) -Tourism can decrease vulnerability (Ashley 2000) Total Nepal, owning hotel/ restaurant: 1,7 % (2008) Remittances in the form of money derived from migrants 30 % Households involved in migration (seasonal, permanent) 83 % 44 % 8% Nepal: 30.0 % (2008) Rural households in Western Development Region Nepal: 43, 7 % (2008) 94 % 25 % -Migration is an important livelihood strategy and a mean to cope with vulnerability (Brogaard and Seaquist, 2005) Total Nepal: 44 % (2008) Negative effect snowfall decrease on household: crop/livestock loss 43 % 39 % 50 % -Reduced, delayed, and unseasonal snowfall affecting winter crops (ICIMOD,2010) Sensitivity factors Food security problem 47 % 44 % 50 % -A higher % food problem indicates a higher level of sensitivity of a household (Hahn et al, 2008) Drinking water problem 80 % 78 % 83 % -A higher % drink water problem indicates a higher level of sensitivity of a household (Hahn et al, 2008) Energy problem 67 % 67 % 67 % -A higher % energy problem indicates a higher level of sensitivity of a household (Hahn et. al, 2008) Health problem 20 % 6% 33% -A higher % health problems indicate a higher level of the sensitivity of a household (Hahn et. al, 2008) Tourism and road benefits Tourism household benefits 57 % 72 % 33 % Tourism can decrease the vulnerability of livelihoods Ashley (2009) New road household benefits 30 28 % 33 % - New road construction has negative and positive influences on vulnerability Kreuzmann (1991) 90 8.2 Discussion Income sources and assets This study shows that none of the non-indigenous households do own land due to traditional institutions. Consequently, they do not have their own cultivation or livestock in a considerable amount. According to previous studies it seems that landless households are amongst the most vulnerable households in the society (e.g Dulal, 2010. Senbata, 2009, Ghimere, 2010). They do not have the opportunities in assets which households that do own land have. Directly, that will say, it is presumable that landless households have a low livelihood diversification. First of all, this study shows that 73% of the indigenous households have more than income source, compared to the much lower 23% among non-indigenous households. These results are in line with the assumptions out of the existing research (Ellis, 2000). A more detailed investigation of the different kind of income sources among indigenous and none-indigenous households shows that indigenous household, who are able to own land, derive a much bigger percentage of income sources out of own cultivation and livestock keeping, as well as tourism, compared to none-indigenous households. Especially, the fact that the owning cultivation and livestock is not existent among none-indigenous livelihoods, except for the keeping of livestock in a small amount like the keeping of one goat, is an obvious result. Since Kagbeni is a traditional agricultural community in which households have been relying on agricultural existence for centuries, none-indigenous households have a marginal position. As a result, their main alternative is to offer their labour in agriculture or construction, as called paid labour. This study shows that among households in Kagbeni this is clearly apparent. 45% of the nonindigenous households compared to 11 % of the indigenous households are active in paid labour in agriculture or construction. A relative recent development and income alternative besides agriculture and paid labour is tourism. Although pilgrims have been visiting the area for thousands of years and a tradition of tea-houses and hostage of pilgrims is familiar in the region, western tourism has been only developed the last 30 years. Tourism can be seen as an alternative and a way to soften vulnerability as it gives opportunities to develop an income other than agriculture (Ashley, 2000 Meyer, 2010).This study shows that a large number of Kagbeni households, approximately 50%, are involved in tourism. Therefore, tourism as an income source is of high significance for Kagbeni households and does have had a strong influence on their longstanding mainly agricultural existence. Differences in the involvement in tourism are highly visible since 25 % of the non-indigenous households is involved in tourism, compared to 61% among indigenous households. The first group is mainly active in small scale tourism business like the selling of food and souvenirs while the latter group is able to own and establish a lodge or restaurant. After all, tourism has created an alternative income for many households and thereby broadens livelihood diversification of many households. However, it has also broadened the gap between none-indigenous and indigenous households since the outcomes show that indigenous households have been profiting of this development on a much higher rate. Moreover, 72 % of the indigenous households indicate to see profits of tourism while this is only 23 % for none-indigenous households. 91 Another, often mentioned source of income, as well as adaptation strategy to vulnerability, is migration and the income derived from it in the form of remittances. Existing studies of Brogaard and Seaquist (2005) show that this source of income and activity is an often seen mode among the more vulnerable. Therefore, it can be hypothesized that non-indigenous households are more involved in (seasonal) migration and the derived remittances compared to indigenous households, since their livelihood diversification is limited. But why does this study shows the contradictory, namely that among non-indigenous households only 25 % is involved in migration compared to 94% among indigenous households? Moreover, 44 % of the indigenous households receive remittances in the form of money as an income source, compared to only 8% among non-indigenous households. A possible clarification can be the fact that among Kagbeni households, the none-indigenous households have a much lower average household size, which is 3,2, compared to 6,7 among indigenous households. Consequently, they have fewer household members who could be involved in migration since it is necessary to have one or more household members back home in order to create a living and take care of the housing and younger household members. Another reason, mentioned by non-indigenous households, is that they are migrants themselves and has recently been migrated from the Tibet Autonomous State; neighbouring districts like Dolpo or even further away from the Chitwan area in the southern part of Nepal. Eventually, migration and derived remittances are not per se seen among the more vulnerable groups since other factors like household size and origin determine whether households are involved in this livelihood strategy. Sensitivity As became clear, the Livelihood Vulnerability index includes, except for climate variability and adaptive capacity, the component of sensitivity of households. In this study, his component includes four vital needs namely, water, food security, energy and health security. First the focus is on drinking water. Then food security is discussed followed by the aspects of sequentially energy and health. First of all, access to sufficient drinking water is by far the biggest current problem visible among all households of Kagbeni. Present studies suggest that the more vulnerable groups are more sensitive and see more problems regarding, amongst others, drinking water (Hahn et al. 2008). This study shows that 80% of all Kagbeni households, whether indigenous or not, are sensitive, taken the aspect of drinking water into account. Although all Kagbeni households do have access to drinking water tabs, there are either not sufficient taps or the drinking water is qualitative not good. The main problem is taps are frozen in winter while in the summer season the water is too muddy to be drinkable. Hahn et al. (2008) confirms that a higher level of drinking water problems indicates a higher level of sensitivity. However, when going more in detail, adaptations strategies to cope with vulnerability and part of the concept adaptive capacity play a role in this. This study shows different results in adaptation strategies among indigenous and non-indigenous households regarding drinking water. The most effective and used strategy to adapt to this drinking water problem is the establishment of tanks on the roof in order to catch and store snow/ rain water. This is seen by 80% of the indigenous households but only by 17 % of the non-indigenous households. The main reason for this difference is the high cost of a tank. Besides, the lack of access to village meetings and decision making process could be a constraint on order to get enough knowledge about the 92 provision of drinking storage. This is confirmed by the literature (Dulal, 2010) however not explored in this study. After all, while the majority of Kagbeni households are sensitive in the aspect of drinking water, non indigenous households are even more vulnerable since they have less adaptation opportunities. However, an obvious example of an adaptation strategy among four nonindigenous households who are housed in a disadvantaged part of Kagbeni where they cannot get access to sufficient tab drinking water have bought their own private tab of the sum of 50,000 NR a year. Although this is a high price for these households, this example shows that alternative social networks among groups that are excluded from other e.g. community networks, are able to response to their vulnerable situation of in this case drinking water. The second factor is food-security. Although the percentages of households indicating food problems are of a lower rate than the mentioned drinking water problems, food security is still not guaranteed among half of the Kagbeni households. This study founded out that among all Kagbeni households whether indigenous or not there exist no significant difference in opportunities for adaptation strategies, except for few households mentioning high food prices as a financial constraint. For example, almost all households do save seeds and crops for the winter or the next year. These outcomes stand to the opposite with drinking water problems since in that aspect a clear difference can be seen between the opportunities in adaptation strategies between indigenous and non indigenous households. Consequently, these results show a different insight than the existing studies which say that more vulnerable group (landless, less rights) are more sensible in the aspect of food security and therefore more vulnerable. In case of Kagbeni, the underlying problems are of main concern for the clarification of this outcome. Not the financial constraint is the biggest problem but the availability of food during the year. Whether indigenous or not, Kagbeni households are able to work or harvest for their food when it is the right season, in this case summer season. However, first of all, during winter no harvest is possible, which makes food security unstable for at least half of the households. Secondly, all households into a bigger or lesser extent do purchase food from outside Kagbeni. The new road has made food supply easier but on the other side, in springtime, the road is often too muddy and trucks with food are not able to drive up to Kagbeni. Concluded, the mentioned constraints are both problems for indigenous and non-indigenous households since except for the saving of seeds and crops no adaptation strategy in order to adapt to these problems is visible. Therefore, not only vulnerability aspects like the lack of land and rights are per se responsible for unstable food insecurity but also climate factors and external influences like the opening up of the new road which this study shows. A third main factor is energy security. 67% of all Kagbeni households lack sufficient energy. Shortage of wood supply and affordable alternatives are the main problems. These problems seem to be visible among indigenous as well as non-indigenous households. Consequently, more than half of Kagbeni households are sensitive in the aspect of energy security. This is confirmed by Hahn et al. (2008) stating that a higher percentage of energy problems indicate a higher level of sensitivity. Although, the majority of Kagbeni households seem to be sensitive in the aspect of energy security, non-indigenous households are more vulnerable in respect that they have fewer rights to forest access and financial sources to afford alternative energy sources like gas and solar energy. Existing researchers like Dulal (2010), confirm that the more vulnerable groups without access to land and excluded from certain significant rights, foresee more problems in the aspects of water, food, energy and health. In this case, non-indigenous households do not have access to forest and are therefore less secured of wood supply. Therefore, the energy problems they face are even a heavier load since 93 they are often not able to purchase alternative energy sources like most non-indigenous households do. Consequently, this outcome does reflect with existing studies as it brings forward the important role of opportunities of adaptation strategies that makes the difference in sensitivity or vulnerability of households. The fourth facotr of sensibility; health security, considerably differs among indigenous and non-indigenous households as one-third of the non-indigenous households indicate to have health problems compared to only 6 % among indigenous households. Therefore nonindigenous households are more sensitive as well as vulnerable in this aspect which is reflected in the literature by Hahn et al. (2008). Concluded, in this study, the four aspects of drinking water, food, energy and health security determine the sensitivity of Kagbeni households. Moreover these aspects affect household’s adaptive capacity according to the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (Hahn et al. 2008). However, this study shows, that sensitivity does not per se leads to vulnerability of households as adaptation strategies determine a great part of the level of vulnerability of different aspects. After all, according to existing studies like Hahn et al. (2008) applying the Livelihood Vulnerability Index, the level of adaptation, defined as adaptive capacity, is being determined by the socio-demographic profile, livelihood strategies and social networks of households. The component of adaptive capacity will be discussed in the next part. Adaptive capacity As mentioned, adaptive capacity is determined by the aspects of socio-demographic profile, livelihood strategies and social networks. The aspect of livelihood strategies has been discussed in the first part of this chapter, as part of the assets and income sources of Kagbeni households. Therefore, sequentially the aspects of social networks and the socio-demographic profile will be discussed. According to Dulal (2010) households who are excluded from major decision making processes are more vulnerable. As mentioned before, non-indigenous households in Kagbeni do not have the right to landownership. Besides this lack of landownership, these households are not allowed to attend village meetings in which major community decisions are being made. While all indigenous households have the right to attend those meetings and to express their rights and needs, none of the indigenous households have. Therefore, they can be seen as more vulnerable since in village meetings important decisions about water, food, energy, health, education etc. are taken that also concerns them (Dulal, 2010). Adger,(2003) states that, due to interaction, communities can learn from each other and develop or improve adaptation strategies to cope with their vulnerability. Although in this study non-indigenous households are excluded from main decision making processes on community level, among several non-indigenous households of Kagbeni, interaction activities are apparent. In this, households help and support each other to develop adaptation strategies. For example, in order to get access to drinking water, four nonindigenous households who are housed in a disadvantaged part of Kagbeni where they cannot get access to sufficient tab drinking water have bought their own private tab of the sum of 50,000 NR a year. This example shows that alternative social networks among groups that are excluded from other e.g. community networks, are able to response to their vulnerable situation of in this case, drinking water. Despite the before mentioned example, in general, in the aspects of drinking water, health and energy security, indigenous households have more opportunities to create adaptation strategies. This is mainly due to the before mentioned access to social networks as well as the greater financial opportunities that indigenous households have. However, the factor of food 94 security does not seem to be determined by those aspects, since both indigenous and nonindigenous households do have few adaptation strategies in this sense. Other external reasons like the new road and climate dependence are the main causes which are not taken into account by the Livelihood Vulnerability Index. Moreover, as confirmed by Adger and Vincent (2005), adaptive capacity is the most difficult concept to determine since it is by far the most adaptable to the specific context of the study. Socio-demographic characteristics A remaining question derived from the part on adaptive capacity is: would the socio demographic profile of indigenous households and non-indigenous households differ from each other to an extent that has considerable influence on their adaptive capacity and therefore their vulnerability? First of all, as became clear the household size of non-indigenous households is 3.2 while this is 6.7 for indigenous households. This makes a considerable difference since according to the literature of amongst others Makoka (2008) and Orbeta (2006), a higher households indicates a higher level of vulnerability. Therefore, regarding the household size, this research shows that non-indigenous households are not less vulnerable than indigenous households. The second factor, showing a considerable difference among non-indigenous and indigenous households, is the percentage of female-headed households. Among indigenous households 33% have a female as head of the households while this is 8 % among non-indigenous households. The literature confirms that female headed households in Nepal are even less vulnerable then man headed households. A lack of argumentation is visible and can also not being derived from this research. Eventually, the level of educational attendance shows a considerable difference among non-indigenous and indigenous households. Non-indigenous households show a larger percentage, of 83 %, compared to indigenous households of 67 %. In this aspect, non-indigenous households are less vulnerable than indigenous households since education can be a mean to reduce vulnerability (Dulal, 2010). However, since indigenous households have a greater livelihood diversification and more opportunities to sustain their existence, education among non-indigenous households could be a response to vulnerability. Especially since better affordable or even free primary school attendance and religious (lama) education is visible among non-indigenous households while less or few among indigenous households. Tourism and road benefits Tourism has brought benefits and negative impacts to livelihoods of Kagbeni differentiating amongst indigenous and non-indigenous households into a high extent. The outcomes of this study confirm that the wealth gap between indigenous and non-indigenous households is broadening. Singh (2008) confirms that, in her case, the wealth gap between investors and inhabitants is growing. Furthermore, positive sides of tourism have been the increase of jobs in tourism which broadens livelihood diversification and thereby decreases vulnerability of livelihoods. This has been confirmed by Meyer (2010) and Ashly (2000).The last significant analysis is that of perspectives about the new road construction among households in Kagbeni. Kreuzmann (1991) confirms that the construction of a road, opening the Hunza Valley in Pakistan, has created different new opportunities like the creation of new jobs due to the opening of new shops, improvement of stability in food supply, reduction of travel time and the increase of external programs of for example food programs 95 organized by NGO’s. In case of Kagbeni, the main benefits of the new road are the improvement of transport for goods and people which is much easier as well as the decrease in prices of goods. Besides, the stability of food supply has increased. However, adverse impacts like the increase of air pollution, mentioned by households in Kagbeni, are not seen back in Kreuzmanns study. 8.3 Conclusion When taking into account the hypothesis that non-indigenous households are more vulnerable than indigenous households, several important differences as well as similarities are shown to be found between the research outcomes and the existing literature. After all, non-indigenous are more vulnerable, which is confirmed by the literature in the aspect that landless households and households that are excluded from major decision making processes are more vulnerable (e.g Dulal, 2010 Senbeta, 2009 Ghimere, 2010). These two descriptions are exactly the main characteristics of non-indigenous households. In general, non indigenous households are more vulnerable as they face more problems regarding several factors like water, energy and health security. Since they are excluded from owning land, access to forest and access to community decision meeting process they have less opportunities to diversify their existence as well as response to problems. Although water, energy, food and health problems do exist among all households, non indigenous households show to be more vulnerable in especially water and energy security since they do not have the same opportunities to adapt to these problems as much as indigenous households do. Furthermore, an important outcome, which is confirmed by the existing literature is that the more vulnerable groups (in this case non-indigenous households), do have a lower level of livelihood diversification as they show a much lower percentage of different incomes sources. On the other side, among indigenous households there exist a much bigger range of different income sources. Although the present research outcomes show that the main outcomes match with the existing literature findings, there exists several conflicting outcomes. A main conflicting outcome between the present research findings and the existing literature are found in the small household size among non-indigenous households compared to indigenous households. According to the provided literature, a smaller household size indicates less vulnerability (Orbeta, 2004) Therefore, in this research, indigenous households, characterized by a bigger household’s size than non-indigenous households are more vulnerable in this aspect. Another, at first sight seemingly conflicting outcome, is seen in the results about female headed households. While the majority of existing literature on female headed households shows that female headed households are more vulnerable (e.g Lacey &Sinai, 1996 Senbata, 2009 Hahn, 2008), this research shows that among indigenous households, female headed households are much more apparent than among non-indigenous households. This will say that non-indigenous households are less vulnerable than indigenous households in this aspect. However, compared to studies carried out in Nepal, female headed households are less vulnerable (Dhoubhabel, 2011). In the aspect of female headed households, this research outcome shows that non-indigenous households are more vulnerable. 96 9 CONCLUSION The goal of this study is to investigate vulnerability factors among livelihoods of Kagbeni, thereby taking into account the influence of the opening up of the village on this vulnerability. Kagbeni, a traditionally agricultural based village, situated in the Himalayan region of Nepal, Mustang district, hosts 100 households (NTNC, 2001). It is characterized by a cold, dry and windy mountain climate which consequently causes a hard existence, challenging livelihoods in different ways. Although it has been entered by pilgrims for many centuries it only opened up for modern tourism in 1977 as from that time on trekkers entered the area. Consequently, besides agriculture, tourism plays an important role. Another significant development is the opening up of the new road in 2006, stretching from Pokhara, the second city biggest of Nepal, up to Kagbeni. The focus of this research is on the components of exposure, sensibility and adaptive capacity. These are determinants of the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), the framework guiding this study. Important factors which have been investigated in this study, are, climate variability; food, water, health and energy security; the socio-demographic profile of households, livelihood strategies and social networks. In case of the opening up of Kagbeni, the new road and tourism are in particular of significance as they influence livelihoods in different ways. With help of the gathered data during the field research and the analyses of the results, an answer will be developed on the main question: What are the main factors responsible for the vulnerability of livelihoods in Kagbeni,, Nepal, and what is the influence of the opening up of the village on this vulnerability? This main question is assisted by four sub questions which will be answered in this chapter. Sq 1: What are the main climate related exposures livelihoods have to deal with? According to households of Kagbeni, in sequence of importance, snowfall decrease, rainfall decrease and temperature increase, seem to be the main climate related exposures Kagbeni livelihoods have to deal with. Although the scientific evidence of those perspectives is questionable since there is not enough evidence to compare these with metrological data, these indicators seems to be most influencing Kagbeni livelihoods. This is most visible by the mentioned decrease in snowfall since snow is of highest value for agricultural production in which 90 % of the households in Kagbeni is involved in. Snow cover of fields during winter season is needed in order to get sufficient harvest of crops like barley and buckwheat. Besides, fields that surround Kagbeni, needs to be covered by snow in order to get enough grass to feed animals during the years. Decreases in rainfall and temperature increase seem to be contradictory outcomes and not showing the relevant influences that decrease in snowfall does. Eventually, in the context of the climate debate, decrease in snowfall already has shown adverse impacts on livelihoods of Kagbeni and probably other mountain communities as well. Therefore, snowfall decrease needs to be considered as a main constraint which could be a threat for mountain livelihoods in further future. 97 Sq 2: What are the main aspects that make livelihoods of Kagbeni sensitive? According to the Livelihood vulnerability index, the component of sensitivity includes the factors of water, food and health security. Sensitivity is the responsiveness of; in this case, households of Kagbeni, to the above mentioned component exposure. However, this sensitivity does not need to be the specific climate related exposure but can relate to all kind of exposures that can makes livelihoods more vulnerable (like political, environmental changes etc.) (Hahn, 2008). In this research, the content of sensitivity has been extended to the factors of water, food, health and energy security since this seemed to be most relevant factors in the context of Kagbeni. Although none of the four factors is being mentioned as stable in the context of Kagbeni, without doubt, his research has shown that drinking water availability is the greatest problem. This is followed by energy problems and unstable food security. The only stable factor is water used for agriculture purposes which is regulated by the communal irrigation system. Health security is the factor that makes livelihood least sensitive since only few households mention to have health problems. It is clear that most existed health problems are related to throat diseases and infections. Main reason is the cold and windy mountain climate that brings dust in the respiratory tracts. However, throat and respiratory infections seems to be ‘’a taken for granted’’ problem which have always been existed and is therefore only mentioned in case of serious problems. Concluded, at first, the lack of access to drinking water is the main factor that makes livelihoods of Kagbeni sensitive. Although there are water tabs, installed by CARE in the 1990’s and spread around Kagbeni, these are mostly frozen in wintertime while during summer season, when glaciers melt, water is too muddy for being proper drinking water. The central problem is not the quantity of water but the quality of water derived from the Dzon Chu. In combination with a growing demand on drinking water this will highly probable lead to future drinking water problems. Secondly, among non indigenous households in Kagbeni, the lack of access to energy sources makes their livelihoods sensitive. This is into a much lesser extent visible among indigenous households in Kagbeni as they have the right in access to energy sources like wood while non indigenous household do not have this right. Wood has been the traditional energy source for cooking and heating for households in Kagbeni and the surrounding areas. Due to the large exploitation of this resource for many centuries and the lack of a strict policy regarding wood cutting, only few forest is left. In combination with the mountain climate, lacking extensive forest cover, nowadays, wood is a highly scarce resource. Alternative options are available but most are too expensive which will be explained in subquestion 3. Thirdly, due to the harsh climate and short season food security during the years has always been a challenge among households in Kagbeni. Food production in Kagbeni is not enough to feed the whole community. Therefore, food products are brought from outside the village to supplement the local production. In wintertime there has always been a shortage on food since no cultivation is possible. Nowadays, households in Kagbeni rely more on food from outside because of to the improved transport possibilities due to the new road. However, during rainy season (spring season) food transport is most difficult since roads are often impossible to be driven and food cannot reach Kagbeni. 98 Sq 3: How do households respond to their vulnerability? Households use diverse strategies to adapt and response to vulnerable factors in their live that could otherwise threat their existence. The above two sub questions discussed the exposure of climate variability and sensitivity factors among households in Kagbeni of which some make their livelihoods vulnerable. Diverse strategies can be tracked down in order to response to this vulnerability. In case of Kagbeni, responses could be divided in on- farm strategies like the saving of seeds for the next year, or, broader responses like diversification strategies which could be a response to diverse factors that makes livelihoods vulnerable. First of all, a decrease in snow fall causes lower production of crops and grass. Responses to this climate variability are the saving of grass in order to have a reserve in case the next months or year there will be too less snow to get sufficient grass to feed the animals. Especially goats, an important livestock for Kagbeni households, need to get sufficient grass to be in healthy condition. Furthermore, the communal irrigation system serves as a buffer in case of too less snowfall. Although snow is more significant for certain crops like barley and buckwheat, as it covers the fields for a longer period, irrigation is used as a buffer. Besides, in case of too less snow, grass is irrigated in order to get enough grass to feed livestock. Another response to a decrease in snowfall is seen in the sphere of religion, namely praying for a better coming year. In how far this response is effective could be a question but it is certainly a hopeful try to see a more prosperous agricultural year. Also, the most practiced religion of Tibetan Buddhism in Kagbeni, is highly integrated in agricultural business and therefore central in the daily lives of Kagbeni households. Secondly, responses to sensitive factors which make Kagbeni livelihoods vulnerable have been recognized. Access to drinking water is shown to be the most problematic factor that makes livelihoods sensitive. However, responses in order to decrease this sensitivity and therefore vulnerability are visible. The two main responses are the establishment of tanks on the roofs of houses, which collect snow and rain water, and the strategy of sediment sinking. The first strategy is used by half of the households in Kagbeni and is therefore an important mean in order to soften the burden of too less drinking water. However, this strategy is only used by indigenous households, with the exception of one non-indigenous household. Taking this into account, it can be concluded that non-indigenous households are even more vulnerable in the factor of drinking water since they have less opportunities to response to this problem. Also, since four non-indigenous households in Kagbeni need to buy their own private pipeline in order to get at least water for household purposes, it becomes clear that non- indigenous households face the biggest burden in this aspect. The second strategy of sediment sinking is used by 50 % of the households in Kagbeni. A filter is used to clean the water from mud and sand until the water is free from sediment that is left at the bottom. Other mentioned strategies are the use of water sources other than the Dzon Chu, like the Kali Gandaki River. However, a main problem is that this water has to be brought up from down the river valley which is heavy and time consuming practice. Besides strategies used to response to a lack of access to drinking water, households in Kagbeni respond in different ways to the lack of food security. First of all, the main and most traditional strategies used to respond to this problematic factor are the traditional strategies of seasonal migration and the practice of seed and crop storage for the coming year. Seasonal migration takes place in winter season when no harvest and crop cultivation is possible and too less food is available to feed all members of the household. Seasonal 99 migrants go to Pokhara, Kathmandu and India to sell materials like clothes while living and eating outside Kagbeni for several months. ‘’In winter season the village is almost empty. Only few people are needed to take care of the animals and to sweep and clean the houses and roofs’’ (villager of Kagbeni) While almost 90 % of the non-indigenous households of Kagbeni is involved in migration, this is only 25 % among non-indigenous households. The main argument is that non-indigenous households see a much lower household size and are by themselves migrants. The other traditional strategy of crop and seed storage, practiced by half of the households in Kagbeni, is a main on-farm strategy as to have sufficient reserve of crop and seeds. In winter season, when no harvest is possible crops are used to feed the left household members. Besides, the saved crops function as a buffer in periods when harvest is less or unsuccessful. Saved seeds are needed to cultivate for the next season, which is done in spring season before the start of the cultivation season. For the third factor of energy security diverse responses are visible, differentiating between indigenous and non-indigenous households. Non indigenous households, which do not have access to forest resources, do either collect small three bunches around the village or if affordable, buy gas or kerosene in small amounts. Also, the use of dried dung of cows is used for cooking which has been a traditional energy source. Although indigenous households have access to forest resources, they also buy alternatives like gas, kerosene or solar panels in order to get sufficient or supplement energy resources since wood is a highly scarce resource. This scarcity makes wood expensive and therefore hardly affordable in sufficient amounts for heating and cooking. Nowadays, strict regulations have been opposed by ACAP in cooperation with Kagbeni VDC in order to regulate wood cutting and to preserve forest as much as possible. Only certain areas and trees in the specific areas are allowed to be cut. ACAP does offer technical and transport support for solar panel installation. Also, they promote other alternatives like clay ovens and cooking stoves which help to preserve and recycle heat. However, these alternatives are still too expensive, especially for non indigenous households. Other alternatives then gas, kerosene and solar panels, to compensate wood needed to cook, are rice cookers which have been installed on roofs of houses. However, also these installations are expensive and therefore not affordable for many households. After all, different alternatives are visible however not accessible for all households, especially not for non-indigenous households. Other, broader responses to energy availability are hydro electro projects of which one is installed in Tukuche, south of Kagbeni. However, this electricity is mainly used for lighting and not for heating or cooking. Also, a windmill near Kagbeni had been installed but was broken soon and therefore not of any use. Sq 4: What are the main constraints and benefits of the opening up of Kagbeni for the livelihoods? The opening up of Kagbeni refers to the two main developments of tourism and the new road construction which have been positively and negatively affecting a range of livelihood strategies and assets among Kagbeni households. Lower Mustang as well as Kagbeni has been opened up for tourism in 1977 with the origin of the trekking route around Annapurna Conservation Area. Although pilgrims have been hosted by locals over many centuries, modern tourism in the form of recreation trekking developed since 1977. As a consequence, a part of the households has found a supplement income by offering hosts, lodges, guides and porters. The new road stretching from Pokhara up to Kagbeni, started in 2002 and was completed in 2006. New development to extend the road is visible as construction is taking place in order extend the road up to Lo Manthang in Upper Mustang. 100 Mustang district and Kagbeni are experiencing impacts of the road which consequently have influences on many households and their livelihoods of the region. Diverse benefits and constraints are mentioned among households in Kagbeni and even conflicting interests about the new road and tourism are visible. The latter refers to the fact that of tourism is seen as positive (e.g economic driver) for the village and households, the new road decreases the amount of trekkers that enter Kagbeni as the new road has destroyed part of the old trekking route. Western tourists favour a more pristine trekking route without the road. However, pilgrims and Indian tourists favour the road as they have more opportunities to enter the area without having to walk. Kagbeni households prefer Western tourists above Indian and Nepalese tourists as the first spend more money. After all, Kagbeni households see less Western tourists entering the village and fear that this amount will even more decrease in future. After all, by almost 80 % of the households in Kagbeni see tourism as positive for either their own household (20 %) or the household and the village (60 %). In general, the main benefit for the village is that tourism increases the economic level and brings prosperity to the village by creating tourism affiliated jobs. However, in case of benefits for households, indigenous households get more benefits of tourism as they have greater opportunities to be involved in tourism affiliated jobs. The main reason is the access of rights to own land and therefore hotels or restaurants. However, the majority of the households in Kagbeni benefits into a certain extent and either in a direct or indirect way of tourism. For example, farmers have increased opportunities to sell their products to a better price to lodges and restaurant. Besides, souvenirs and local handcraft product are created and sold to tourists. Other benefits of tourism are the upgrading of lifestyle standards by increased levels of hygiene and knowledge which is brought by tourism. The main constraint is that tourism as being mentioned increases the gap between poor and rich and mainly between a small group of nonindigenous households and more prosperous indigenous households who are able to profit and take opportunities of tourism. Furthermore tourism could be a factor decreasing cultural habits, therefore being a threat to the longstanding culture of households in Kagbeni. Among half of the households in Kagbeni, the new road construction is being viewed as giving both benefits and constraints to their livelihoods. The other half does consider the new road as either positive or negative with no considerable difference between indigenous and non-indigenous households. By far, the main benefits of the road are the improved transport possibilities for people and goods. Travel times have been reduced and goods other than locally produced can be brought up easier from places down the valley like Pokhara. Therefore, these products, like rice, building materials and other luxury products have becoming cheaper and more accessible. Consequently, food supply is more stable as products are mostly available throughout the year while before the road, households where more depended on local food production which sees shortages in for example winter times when harvest is not possible. While before horses, donkeys and mules were used to transport goods and people, nowadays motorized transport is used for people and goods. Therefore food from outside Kagbeni has become cheaper. On the other side, local products face more competition and have become more expensive. Other less mentioned benefits are the improved access to health care and the increased opportunities for farmers to sell their products. The latter is due to the fact that for example apples can be transported easily along the new road which increases selling opportunities. The main 101 constraint of the new road, as mentioned before, is the decrease of tourists entering Kagbeni, due to the destruction of part of the Annpurna trekking route. Most western tourists avoid the route from Kagbeni down to Pokhara and instead take the bus or jeep on this part of the route thereby not staying in Kagbeni village. This constraint is mentioned by households involved in tourism and not by a few non indigenous households which do not see profit of tourism. Other main constraints are the increase of dust and air pollution, the destruction of land and the bad influence on culture. After all, compared to tourism, the road gives more benefits among indigenous as well as non-indigenous households while tourism is mainly beneficial for indigenous households. However, few non indigenous households do not see any profit of the new road as travel fees are still too expensive for them. The above answered sub questions has helped to find an answer on the main question: What are the main factors responsible for the vulnerability of livelihoods in Kagbeni,, Nepal, and what is the influence of the opening up of the village to this vulnerability? By creation of a matrix including the answers on the four sub questions the answer on this main question can be derived. Table 26 shows the factors responsible for the vulnerability of livelihoods in Kagbeni. The preceding subquestion 4 has outlined an array of negative and positive perceptions of the opening up of Kagbeni on vulnerability aspects and livelihood strategies among Kagbeni households. For a specific answer on the question what influence the new road and tourism does have on the livelihood strategies and the vulnerability of Kagbeni households, the balance of the negative and positive aspects need to be assessed. This study shows that the overall influence depends mainly on whose livelihoods is being considered as a clear difference can be recognized between indigenous and non indigenous households. In general the road has a more positive influence than negative on the vulnerability of households. However, tourism has positive influences on the vulnerability of non indigenous households as it decreases their vulnerability while it has more negative influences on vulnerability of non-indigenous households. 102 Table 26: Main outcomes vulnerability factors Vulnerabili ty factors Responses Negative/positive influence of road Negative/positi Most vulnerable: ve influence of Indigenous/non tourism indigenous Snowfall decrease Save grass/ communal irrigation system/praying - All Drinking water Sediment Positive sinking, filter/storage by use of tanks /other water sources/ own pipeline Negative All Food security Crop, seed Positive storage, seasonal migration, buying food from outside Kagbeni Negative All Energy security Use of Positive alternative energy sources like gas /kerosine/ solar energy Negative Non indigenous Health security Dusk masks, visit Positive health centre out of Kagbeni Non indigenous Recommendations After all, in sequence of importance, main recommendations could be mentioned in the fields of drinking water, energy, food, and health security. Two recommendations, namely for the factors of drinking water and energy security will be made, as they seem the factors causing most structural problems. First of all, availability of drinking water should be improved. This can be created by the implementation of a new drinking water strategy. At this moment, drinking water is derived from 103 the Dzon Chu. As this is not sufficient and qualitative unreliable water, new solutions have to be implemented. First of all, to improve the amount of water supply, new water sources like that of the Kali Gandaki River could be used. Since this river lies down the village of Kagbeni, a pipeline that pushes the water up to the village has to be connected. This line can be extended towards other villages in Kagbeni Village Development Committee in order to supply them with more drinking water. However, a first requirement is financial input which is needed to be able to implement such a worthy investment. Secondly, as to improve drinking water quality, existent taps has to be improved. They need to be technically renovated in such that they filter sediments from the river water and make tap water less or not frozen in winter. Technical experts are needed to overview and implement this. It has already become clear that drinking water problems are a current discussion topic among households of Kagbeni. Efforts are made to increase the financial input in order to implement a pipeline. However, this seems a longstanding process in which some inhabitants are not able to participate, like the non-indigenous households. Secondly, energy security is a high problematic issue. First of all, the main needs are affordable alternative energy sources, other than the traditional wood source. Although gas, kerosene and in a lower amount solar energy are available, these sources are too expensive for most households. Thereby, they are not available in sufficient amounts throughout the year since transport of gas bottles in rain season is often impossible due to bad road conditions. A significant feature is the always existing strong wind in the Kali Gandaki Valley. To take benefit of this wind as wind energy would be a great opportunity. Years ago, a windmill was installed by German engineers, but that did not stand for long as it was broken soon after. However, the wind could be a potential for alternative energy supply. After all, external financial and technical sources would be a helpful tool in order to improve drinking water security and energy security for the village of Kagbeni and thereby other villages in Kagbeni Village Development Committee. The Annapurna Conservation Area Project could be a helpful stakeholder since they are highly active in the area of conservation and sustainable development for inhabitants of the area. Besides, specialized external help of, in this case, for example Dutch water engineers and German wind energy engineers, could be an opportunity to improve the drinking water and energy security. However, new initiatives and external help need to be in high cooperation with villagers of Kagbeni VDC. A main final comment and crucial for this study, would be to strengthen the rights of the nonindigenous households. However, these rights are derived from institutional systems. Therefore it would be rather difficult, but not impossible, to change and strengthen the rights of non-indigenous households. Consequently, they can get more opportunities to participate in decision making processes and have greater access to services and rights. However, the main problem is the right of landownership which is lacking amongst non-indigenous households. 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Do you grow crops? a. □Yes b. □No (Please proceed to question 8) 2. What do you produce? (please indicate what products you produce) a. □ Food grains ( ◊Wheat ◊Buckwheat ◊Barley) b. □ Cash crops (◊Oilseeds ◊Potato) c. □ Spice crops (◊Cardamom ◊Turmeric Ginger ◊Chillies ◊Garlic) d. □ Other crops (◊Vegetables ◊Fruits) e. □ Else, namely: ……………………………………………………………… 3. Do you own the land you grow your crops on? a. □ Yes b. □ No, because 4. On how many plots of land do you grow crops on? ……………………………. 5. What are the main constraints in crop production of every individual plot of land? (too much wind, too less sun, too less water, no fertile soil etc) 6. How high is your yield in a normal year? ………………………………………… 7. How much of your production do you keep for yourself/ sell to the market/exchange? Which products? To whom? To which market? 8. Do you own livestock? a. □ Yes b. □ No (proceed to question 11) 9. What livestock, and how many do you own? (more answers possible) a. □ Horses: … b. □ Buffalo: … c. □ Yak: … d. □ Mules/donkeys: … e. □ Sheep: … f. □ Goats: … 108 g. □ Pigs: … h. □ Poultry: … 10. What do you use your livestock for? (Milk, meat, wool, fertilizer etc. ) 11. Climate Variability Change over last 5 How has this affected How do you cope with years (more, less, etc) you? (crop, livestock, this? health, income) Snow Rain Temperature Water Kola flows Water flows Gandaki Jhong Kali Exposures 12. Over the last 5 years, have you experienced any of the following events, and how often? (more answers possible) □ Yes: a. □ Wildfires: … b. □ Droughts: … c. □ Storm: … d. □ Extreme temperatures (both hot and cold): … e. □ Excessive rain/snowfall: … f. □ Flooding: … g. □ Insect outbreaks: … h. □ Disease outbreaks in crops: … 109 □ No, proceed to question 14 13. Do you think that there has been an increase in those kinds of events over the last 5 years? a. □ Yes b. □ No c. □ Too difficult to remember 13.a Have your crops been affected by extreme weather events (wildfires, droughts, storms, extreme temperatures, excessive rain/snowfall, flooding, insect outbreaks, disease outbreaks) over the last 5 years? a. □ Yes b. □ No 13.b Has your livestock been affected by extreme weather events (wildfires, droughts, storms, extreme temperatures, excessive rain/snowfall, flooding, insect outbreaks, disease outbreaks) over the last 5 years? a. □ Yes b. □ No 13.c Has the health of your household been affected by extreme weather events (wildfires, droughts, storms, extreme temperatures, excessive rain/snowfall, flooding, insect outbreaks, disease outbreaks) over the last 5 years? a. □ Yes b. □ No 13.d Has your income been affected by extreme weather events (wildfires, droughts, storms, extreme temperatures, excessive rain/snowfall, flooding, insect outbreaks, disease outbreaks) over the last 5 years? a. □ Yes b. □ No Water and energy 14. Do you have a water tab in your own house? □Yes □ No 15. Where do you get your drinking water from? 16. Where do you get your water from for other household consumptions? 17. Which months a year do you have trouble to get enough water for household purposes? (Including drinking water)? 18. Which months a year do you have trouble to get enough water for agricultural purposes? 19. Do you store water? 110 □ Yes □ No 19a IF YES: Why 19b In which way? 19c How much? 20. Over the past 12 months were there any water conflicts in the community that you are aware of 21. What kind of energy do you use to cook? □ Gas □ Kerosene □ Wood □ Solar panels □ Dung □ Other: ……………………………………………………………………………….. 21a Where do you get these from? □ Nearby forest □ ACAP □ Others: ……………………………………………………………………………… 22. What kind of energy do you use for heating? □ Gas □ Kerosene □ Wood □ Solar panels □ Dung □ Other: ……………………………………………………………………………….. 22a Where do you get these from? □ Nearby forest □ ACAP □ Others: ……………………………………………………………………………… 23. Does your household have enough energy /electricity for its daily activities? □ Yes □ No In case of wood usage: 24. How do you get this wood? □ buying □ growing my own trees 111 □ collecting from forest □ other:………………………………………………………………………………… If collecting wood: 24a which forest? 24b. how do you transport this wood? 24c. how long does it take to get to the forest? 24d. Are you aware of any protective regulations concerning this forest? □ Yes, namely: □ No 112 Food 25. Where does your household get most of its food from? 26. Which products do you need to buy from outside the community for your household’s food consumption? 27. Which months a year does your family have trouble getting enough food? 28. Does your family save some of the crops you harvest to eat during a different time of year? a. □ Yes b. □ No 29. Does your family save seeds to grow the next year? a. □ Yes b. □ No Social Networks 30. For what kind of problems do you ask the assistance of one of the following persons/ institutions? Institution s/ Problems Village Leader Relatives Friends Communi ty members ACAP NGO’s Govern ment agencies Crops Livestock Irrigation Water (drinking water) Climate Food 113 Health Conflicts Finance 31. Over the past 12 months did you go to any of these institutions/ persons to get assistance? □ Yes, namely: □ No 32. Do you attend village meetings? 33. Over the past 12 months did you assist in any sort of way members of your community? □ Yes, namely: □ No 34. Has tourism affected the community ties in Kagbeni? □ Yes, namely: □ No 35. Do you like to see more tourism in the village of Kagbeni? □ Yes, because: □No, because: 36. Has the recently constructed road in any way affected your live? □ Yes, namely: □ No 37. Has the road affected the community ties in Kagbeni? □ Yes, namely: □ No Socio-economic-demographic household inquiry 1. 2. 3. 38. What are you main sources of income? (Agriculture/Livestock/ Tourism/others, etc.) 39. IF NO tourism: Do you get in any sort of way benefits of tourism? 114 Yes…. 40. Are you the head of the household? 41. Household Matrix Family member 1 Age Family member 2 Family member 3 Family member 4 Family member 5 Family member 6 Family member 7 Gender Occupation in agriculture Occupation In household chores Occupation in paid labour School attendance in past School attendance now Highest completed level of education Lives permanent in house Lives temporary in house Winter migration 115 Other seasonal migration Lives abroad (including India) Migration for work purposes Migration for educational purposes Migration for health purposes Chronically ill 42. Income calendar Jan Feb Mr Apr M Jun Jul Au Sp Oct Nv De Inc Agriculture Lodge Shop Tourism other Business other Paid labour Remittances Other* 43. Future problems next 5 year (on household level) No Yes, namely… Crop production 116 Livestock Irrigation water Drinking water Energy Food Climate related Health Income Tourism Road Case-study: Yursagumba (optional) Is one or more of the members in your household involved in Yarsagumba trade? In which way? Does your household get income from Yarsagumba? 117 118