Australia’s emissions
Since 1990, Australia’s economy has doubled in size while emissions have increased by only a small amount;
Australia’s emissions intensity has halved.
Australian governments have implemented a suite of policies to reduce emissions, including regulatory measures
and market-based schemes.
Changes in land use and forestry have accounted for most of Australia’s emissions reductions since 1990. After
many years of sustained growth, changes in the electricity sector have also contributed to recent reductions.
Emissions from most other sectors have grown over the period.
Australia’s historical emissions
Source: Climate Change Authority Targets and Progress Review Figure 6.1.
Australia’s future emission levels depend on a range of factors including economic conditions and policy settings.
Major reductions in Australia’s emissions to 2020 and beyond are unlikely without strong policy measures. With
no carbon price or new policy incentives, Australia’s emissions are projected to grow to 17 per cent above 2000
levels by 2020, and 37 per cent above by 2030. If effective policies are put in place in the next few years, and are
sustained, emissions can be reduced substantially. With strong policy incentives, Australia’s emissions are
projected to fall to 6 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020, and 21 per cent below by 2030.
Australia’s emissions outlook
Note: The Targets and Progress Review examined four scenarios: no carbon price, and low, medium and high price: see Box 10.1 for details.
Source: Climate Change Authority Targets and Progress Review Figure 11.2.
Australia faces a substantial challenge to meet its emissions reduction goals, but they are achievable if Australia
takes near-term action. A steady transition will make it easier and less costly to reduce emissions and could help
improve Australia’s long-term economic competitiveness in a more emissions-constrained world.
Australia’s emissions reduction opportunities include:
 shifting to lower emission electricity generation sources such as renewables
 improving energy efficiency in buildings and industry, as well as fuel efficiency in transport
 adopting lower emission technologies and practices in the mining sector, and in the production of metals,
minerals and chemicals
 reducing net emissions from the land sector including reducing deforestation and improving land management
practices
 purchasing genuine international emissions reductions, as a cost-effective complement to domestic efforts.
Challenges to reducing emissions include:
 strong economic and population growth
 slow replacement of long-lived buildings, vehicles, infrastructure and industrial plant.
Energy efficiency will be particularly important in the near term. Policies that drive the transition to lower
emissions technologies, buildings and vehicles will contribute more to emissions reductions beyond 2020 as
equipment is replaced.
See Chapters 6 and 11 of the Targets and Progress Review Final Report for more information