Dr. Sudhakar Raju FN 6700 ASSIGNMENT 2 – ANSWERS TO FIXED INCOME MARKETS 1.) First, determine the MMY (Money Markey Yield). Note that the ASKED is the selling price of the dealer. This is therefore the price that the investor will pay for the T-Bill. Face Value = $1000; Discount Rate = 4.1125%; Maturity = 360 days. Purchase Price = Face Value - Discount Amount = $1000 – [$1000 × .041125 × (360/360)] = $1000 - $41.25 = $958.875 FV = PV [1 + r n] $1000 = $958.875 [1 + r (360/360)] 1.0429 = 1 + r r = .0429 or 4.29% (MMY) Thus, the MMY (or 360 day yield) is 4.29%. The BEY (or 365 day yield) is given by: BEY = .0429 × (365/360) = 4.35% p.a. The Ask Yield for T-Bills is the same thing as the BEY (Bond Equivalent Yield). Notice the following sequence: BEY>MMY>Discount Rate (or Asked Price). 2.) The selling price of the dealer = 80:12 (80 points and 12 ticks) or 80 + (12/32) = 80.375. (This is the buying price for the investor). For a $100 face value T-bond, the purchase price is $80.375. For a $1000 face value T-bond, the appropriate price is $803.75. To solve for the yield to maturity (YTM) do the following: 2 shift P/Yr 1000 FV 803.75 +/- PV 32.50 PMT (Semi-annual coupon payment of $65/2 = $32.50) 30 N [Sept. 2040 – Sept. 2010 = 30 years] Shift N I/YR = > 8.28% p.a. [ASK YLD] 1 3.) Discount Amount = $13,119.17 Price of T-Bill = Face Value – Discount Amount = $1 m - $13,119.17 = $986,880.83 Money Market Yield: FV = PV [1 + r n] $1m = $986,880.83 [1 + r (91/360)] $1m = $986,880.83 [(1 + 2528 r) 1.01329 = 1 + .2528 r r = [.01329 /.2528] r = .0526 or 5.26% (MMY) The Bond Equivalent Yield (BEY) is given by: .0526 × [365/360] = 5.33% p.a. 4.) FV = $1000; CIR (Coupon Interest Rate) = 9%; N (Number of Years/Periods) = 15 years; Annual Bond. When bonds are first issued, they are issued at face value or par. If interest rates rise, the price of the bond will decline. Thus: 1 Shift P/YR 1000 PV 90 PMT 15 N 15 I/YR PV = $649.16 Thus, the price of the bond drops from $1000 to $649.16 5.) 1 shift P/yr 70 PMT 11 N 8.50 I/YR 1000 FV PV = $895.47 6.) 1Shift P/yr 1000 FV 102.50 PMT 14 N 1225 +/- PV 2 I/YR = 7.59% Current Yield (CY)? CY = Annual Coupon PB CY = $102.50 = 8.37% $1225 7.) 2 shift P/yr 350 +/- PV 1000 FV O PMT (since these are zero coupon bonds) 10 N Shift N I/YR = 10.78% [YTM] 8.) 2 shift P/yr 350 +/- PV 650 FV O PMT 5N Shift N I/YR = 12.77% [Yield to Call] 9.) 2 Shift P/yr 1000 FV 860 +/- PV 10 I/YR 10.50 N Shift N PMT = 39.08 (This is the semi-annual payment. Since the annual coupon is $78.16, the coupon rate is [$78.16 / $1000] or 7.816% 10.) 2 Shift P/yr 1000 FV 43.75 PMT [$87.50 / 2 = $43.75] 7.25 I/YR 9 N [10 year bonds issued one year ago. Thus, remaining maturity is 9 years]. Shift N PV = $1097.91 11.) 2 Shift P/yr 1000 FV 10 N Shift N 3 47.50 PMT 960 +/- PV [96% of par implies .96 x $1000 = $960] I/YR = 10.15% 12.) 2 Shift P/yr 1000 FV 10 I/YR 0 PMT 15 N Shift N PV = $231.38 2 years later [13 years remaining to maturity] the price of the bond remains the same. This means that the YTM must have changed to keep the price the same. The new YTM is: 2 Shift P/yr 1000 FV 0 PMT 13 N Shift N 231.38 +/- PV I/YR = 11.58% The YTM must have increased to 11.58% from 10%. 13.) First, analyze Bond X. Bond X 1 Shift P/yr 1000 FV 90 PMT 7 I/YR 15 N PV = $1182.16 14 N (1 year from now remaining maturity is 14 years) PV = $1174.91 10 N PV = $1140.47 1N PV = $1018.69 0N PV = $1000 Bond Y 1 Shift P/yr 1000 FV 60 PMT 9 I/YR 4 15 N PV = $758.18 14 N PV = $766.42 10 N PV = $807.47 1N PV = $972.48 0N PV = $1000 As the bonds get closer to maturity, the price of the bonds will tend to get closer to the face value of $1000. 14 a.) Since the bond as trading at par, the coupon rate must equal the YTM (Market Rate/Discount Rate). Thus, coupon rate = YTM = 8%. b.) The reinvestment rate drops from 8% to 5%. The bond is also not held to maturity and is sold off after 10 years. The lower reinvestment rates will lower return to the investor. However, the effect of the lower reinvestment rate will be offset by the higher price received when the bond is sold off after 10 years. Calculating both these effects we have: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 CFs $80 $80 $80 $80 $80 $80 $80 $80 $80 $80 $1373.87 (selling price of bond in year 10 See explanation below) Value of CFs at Yr 10 Assuming Reinv Rate = 10% FV = $80(1+.05)9 = 124.11 FV = $80(1+.05)8 = 118.20 FV = $80(1+.05)7 = 112.57 FV = $80(1+.05)6 = 107.21 FV = $80(1+.05)5 = 102.10 FV = $80(1+.05)4 = 97.24 FV = $80(1+.05)3 = 92.61 FV = $80(1+.05)2 = 88.20 FV = $80(1+.05)1 = 84.00 FV = $80(1+.05)0 = 80.00 FV = $1373(1+.05)0 = 1373.87 $2380.11 The selling price of $1373.87 can be figured out thus. At year 10, the investor gets the coupon payment of $80 and then sells off the bond. The selling price of the bond reflects the PV of its remaining cash flows and can be determined thus: 5 1 Shift P/yr 1000 FV 80 PMT 20 N [Remaining life of a 30 year bond after it is sold off in year 10] 5 I/YR PV = $1373.87 Realized Yield? The bond was purchased for $1000 and the value of its coupons plus its selling price totals $2380.11 at year 10. What is the rate of return (r) on an investment of $1000 which yields $2380.11 in 10 years? This can be computed as: FV = PV (1 + r)n $2380.11 = $1000 (1 + r)10 r = 9.06% 1 shift P/yr 1000 +/- PV 2380.11 FV 10 N I/YR = 9.06% NOTE: A quick way to get at the $2380.11 is to recognize that the coupons constitute an annuity. The FV of a fixed payment of $80 for 10 years at 5% is given by: 1 shift P/yr 80 PMT 10 N 5 I/YR FV = $1006.23 Add the above to the selling price of $1373.87 to get $2380.11 The reinvestment rate is 5% and the YTM is 8%. The realized yield should lie between 5% and 8%. Why is it much higher at 9.06%? The reason is that the bond is not held to maturity but is sold off before maturity. Had the bond been held to maturity and the reinvestment rate of 5% had held for 30 years, then the realized yield would have fallen between 5% and 8%. 15.) This problem compares long maturity bonds with short maturity bonds. Bond A FV = $1000 CIR = YTM = 8% (priced at par) N = 2 years Pb=$1000 PB = $1000 6 New Rate=10% New PB = $965.29 To solve for $965.29 do the following: 1 shift P/yr 1000 FV 80 PMT 2N 10 I/yr PV => 965.29 % Decrease in value of bond can be computed as: => 965.29 1000 1000 => -3.47% Thus, the 2 year bond drops in value by 3.47% when interest rates rise by 2%. Bond B FV = $1000 CIR=YTM=8% N=15 Years PB=$1000 New Rate= 10% New PB=$847.88 % Decrease: => 847.88 1000 1000 = -15.21% Thus, while the shorter maturity bond (Bond A) declines by only 3.47%, the longer maturity bond (Bond B) declines by much more (15.21%). This implies that longer term bonds are more susceptible to interest rate risk as compared to shorter term bonds. If rates decrease by 2% (rather than increase) then the price of Bond A increases to $1036.67 while Bond B’s price goes up to $1194.24. The price increase of the longer 1194.24 1000 19.42% is greater than that of the shorter term bond 1000 term bond 7 1036.67 1000 3.67% . Thus, if rates decrease you are better off with a longer 1000 term bond since you experience a sharper price appreciation (see diagram below). Bond Prices Bond B Bond A $1000 $965.29 Bond A [S-T Bond] $847.88 Bond B [L-T Bond] 8% Yields 10% (YTM) 16.) This problem compares low coupon bonds with high coupon bonds. Original YTM=9% Bond J (Low Coupon Bond) Bond K (High Coupon Bond) FV = 1000, CIR = 4%, N=10 yrs FV=1000, CIR=10%, N=10 yrs Original PB = $679.12 Original PB = $1064.18 New PB =$587.75 New PB = $941.11 % change = (941.111064.18)/1064.18 New YTM=11% % change=(587.75679.12)/679.12 = -11.56% = -13.45% New YTM=7% New PB =$789.29 % change = (789.29-679.12)/ (679.12) New PB =$1210.71 % change = (1210.71-1064.18) / (1064.18) = +16.22% = + 13.77% Notice that the low coupon bond (Bond J) is much more price sensitive as compared to the high coupon bond (Bond K). This is consistent with the principles of duration which state that low coupon bonds have greater price risk as compared to high coupon bonds. 8 17.) The rate of return on the investment can be determined thus: 1 Shift P/yr 1000 FV 100 PMT 1100 +/-PV 10 N I/YR = 8.48% Thus, the rate of return you expect to receive on this bond, provided you hold it to maturity and yields do not change over the life of the bond, is 8.48% Selling price of bond? FV = $1000; CIR=10%; PMT=$100, N=8 yrs (2 years later implies N=8year), New YTM = 8.48%-2.50% = 5.98% (yields are 2% lower). The new price of the bond turns out to be $1249.83 What is the realized yield on this investment? The details of this investment are as follows: Purchase price of bond = $1100 Selling price of bond = $1249.83 Time Horizon (holding period) = 2 years Two coupon payments of $100 each 1 Shift P/yr 1100 +/- PV 1249.83 FV 100 PMT 2N I/Yr = 15.41% Notice that the realized yield is now higher than 8.48% because interest rates have dropped leading to a higher selling price of the bond. 18 a.) YTM? 1 Shift P/Yr 98.25 +/- PV 100 FV 18 N 8 PMT I/Yr = 8.19% Thus, the YTM is 8.19% b.) Realized Yield? Time 1 CFs $8 FV of CFs reinvested at 7.35% 9 2 . . . 17 18 $8 . . . $8 $8 + $100 FV $8(1 0.0735)17 $26.71 FV $8(1 0.0735)16 $24.88 . . . FV $108(1 0.0735) 0 $108 __________________________ $381.31 It’s too tedious to compute the FV of each cash flow component. It’s simpler to recognize that we are dealing with an annuity of $8m for 18 years invested at a yield of 7.35%. The FV of this annuity is: 1 Shift P/yr 8 PMT 18 N 7.35 I/yr FV = 281.31 Thus, the 18 annuity payments of $8 invested at 7.35% sum to $281.31. To this add the principal of $100 at year 18. Thus, the FV of all cash flows sum to $381.31. The realized yield can then be computed thus: Purchase price of bond = $98.25 Compounded value of coupons and principal at Year 18 = $381.31 Time horizon of Investment = 18 years 1 Shift P/yr 98.25 +/- PV 381.31 FV 18 N I/YR = 7.82% Thus, the realized yield is 7.82% c.) The relationship between the YTM, realized yield and reinvestment rate is as follows: YTM = 8.19% Reinvestment Rate = 7.35% The realized yield of 7.82% lies between the YTM and the reinvestment rate. Note that this will be true only if the bond is held to maturity. 10