Europe's Not Out of Bizarro World Yet
By Franck Dixmier
907 words
19 May 2015
The Wall Street Journal Asia
AWSJ
13
English
Copyright © 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Dow Jones
Fans of the Superman comics will be familiar with Bizarro World. Home to the supervillain Bizarro, the antithesis of Superman, it is a planet where circumstances run contrary to conventional wisdom. In one episode, a salesman does a roaring business selling Bizarro bonds -- "Guaranteed to lose money for you" -- not unlike the strange phenomenon of Europe's negative interest rates.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi catapulted us into this unprecedented situation last June when he set negative interest rates for money held at the ECB. Fuelled by quantitative easing , by late April this year more than one-third of the eurozone's 7.34 trillion euros ($8.34 trillion) government-bond market was in negative territory. Investors had to pay Germany and France for the privilege of lending money to them.
The torrid sell-off since then has pushed yields back into positive territory and left many wondering if the absurdities of Bizarro World are abating, either temporarily or permanently. Yields on Germany's 10-year Bund, a proxy for the wider European market, jumped to just under 0.74% last week, up from a record low of 0.05% in April.
Still, around a quarter of eurozone government bonds remain in negative yield. It would be a mistake to consider the recent spikes as anything other than a finite and technically driven correction. We are certainly not on the cusp of a crash that will end the 20-year bull run in bonds or even allow long-term yields to correlate more closely again with economic fundamentals.
On the contrary, markets are feeling the short-term effects of the unwinding of trades that were designed to profit from the ECB's sovereign-bond purchase program -- or quantitative easing (QE) -- after disappointing U.S. growth combined with better-than-expected news on the eurozone economy. In the first few months of QE, investors were buying longer-dated bonds of 10 years or more in core eurozone countries because yields were falling and prices were rising. Now, the sharp and sudden sell-off has erased weeks of price gains on this paper, prompting investors to look for buying opportunities elsewhere.
It is hard to predict exactly how long the volatility will run, but yields could well be heading back toward historic lows by July. At that point, eurozone government bonds due to be repaid will outstrip new issuance for the month by 120 billion euros.
The danger is that such dramatic drops in yield will become self-reinforcing and damaging to the financial system. The ECB also applies negative interest rates on the money it keeps on behalf of commercial banks, in effect charging banks for holding their reserves. This is a double whammy at a time when regulators are imposing tighter capital requirements on banks with the intention of avoiding another financial crisis.
Banks are responding in part by buying safe, liquid assets such as highly rated government debt. Because such assets are in chronic short supply, banks are forced to bid prices higher, driving yields ever lower and beginning the cycle again. The irony is that this bond bubble means that these assets, normally perceived as extremely safe, have become riskier as their values are increasingly prone to a correction.
The ECB is also highly unlikely to taper its quantitative-easing program ahead of schedule, despite recent discussion about such a move in some quarters. The scale and duration of the central bank's bond-buying plan -- 60 billion euros a month until September 2016 -- is another solid reason why eurozone fixed-income markets are far from done with their Bizarro behavior. The ECB has become another major buyer on the market, bidding up bond prices in an effort to meet its QE target.
The obvious solution for institutional investors is to put their money into other assets. Against a recurring backdrop of vanishing yields, for example, it may be advisable to rebalance portfolios toward higher-yielding bonds, such as debt issued by smaller eurozone members or high-yield corporate credit. Quantitative easing is intended in part to encourage precisely this kind of investment behavior, which ultimately eases funding conditions for corporations and theoretically boosts investment and growth as a result.
Yet liability-driven investors -- those who invest in order to earn enough of a return to pay future obligations, such as insurers -- which own more than 20% of euro-denominated government debt, continue to bid up bond prices because they are obliged to do so by regulators. An unintended consequence of the Solvency II regulatory regime targeted at shoring up insurers has been to entice companies into so-called safe havens to match the increasing duration of their liabilities amid falling yields.

The strange conventions of this Bizarro World will start to abate permanently when global economies and markets return to more familiar patterns. This will require the eurozone to deliver on expectations of a more robust recovery, and a gradual and measured normalization of
U.S. monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Only then can markets start pricing risk in a traditional manner. Until then, policy makers face the challenge of how to deflate the Bizarro asset-price bubble in the bond market in an orderly way.
---
Mr. Dixmier is chief investment officer of fixed income for Europe at Allianz Global Investors.
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Document AWSJ000020150518eb5j0000d
Markets
Fed Rate Move Will Make Doves Cry; The market isn’t prepared for a September rate increase, and the Federal Reserve will have a hard time changing that.
By Justin Lahart
570 words
14 May 2015
14:00
The Wall Street Journal Online
WSJO
English
Copyright 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
The Federal Reserve wants to avoid sparking another taper tantrum. That will be easier said than done.
In May 2013, when the Fed's then-Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the central bank could begin winding down quantitative easing [http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887323336104578501552642287218]“in the next few meetings," he sparked a selloff in Treasurys that sent the yield on the 10-year note from 1.94% to 2.9% in three months.
By then the Fed was having second thoughts, in part because it worried the rise in long-term rates was damping the economy. It didn't begin scaling back bond purchases[http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20141217a.htm] until the start of last year.
If it mishandles communicating its plans for raising rates, it risks a repeat.
The Wall Street Journal's monthly survey of economists[http://projects.wsj.com/econforecast/#ind=gdp&r=20], released Thursday, shows that nearly three-quarters of forecasters expect the Fed to begin raising its target range on overnight rates at its September meeting. The remainder are split between earlier and later dates. The median federal-funds forecast for year-end is 0.625%, which implies a target range of 0.5% to 0.75%—implying two quarter-point increases from the current range.
Those forecasts reflect a view that the economy will rebound from the weak first quarter, allowing the Fed to finally lift rates. It also seems squarely in line with what Fed officials themselves expect.
But investors see things differently.
Federal-funds futures, which price off overnight interest-rate expectations, imply the chances of a rate increase by September are less than
50% and price in just one increase in the target range.
This view of a lower rate trajectory may reflect worries that some sort of shock disrupts the Fed's plans, rather than a straight forecast of what the Fed will most likely do. But on balance, it seems like investors have a more dovish take than the economists.
It can be helpful to think of the implied fed-funds rate odds as reflecting a distribution. There are some investors who are completely on board with a September tightening, some who give it even chances, some who see later this year as more likely—and some who don't think any increase will happen this year.

It is this last group—who are likely enamored of sectors paying big dividends, such as utilities and master limited partnerships—the Fed has to worry about. Just like the fraction of investors who were caught completely offside by Mr. Bernanke's comments in 2013, they might have to adjust very quickly to a September rate increase, sending long-term rates higher than the Fed wants. Hence, one reason Fed officials lately have been saying markets need to figure out where rates are headed, rather than expect signals from the central bank, may be to inject a little more uncertainty into dovish investors' calculations.
But convincing the doves that their forecasts for the economy are too downbeat, or that their understanding of the Fed is wrong, is beyond the central bank's powers. If the Fed does raise rates in September, these folks are going to be surprised—and inflict a few shocks of their own on vulnerable sectors.
Write to Justin Lahart at justin.lahart@wsj.com[mailto:justin.lahart@wsj.com]
Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Document WSJO000020150514eb5e0073m
Economy
PBOC Says No Need for QE Despite More Pressure on Economy; China is likely to shy away from aggressive stimulus to revitalize its slowing economy
352 words
8 May 2015
08:06
The Wall Street Journal Online
WSJO
English
Copyright 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
BEIJING—China's economy faces downward pressure in the short term, but there is no need to use quantitative easing to aggressively boost liquidity, the nation's central bank said Friday.
The People's Bank of China in its first-quarter monetary-policy report said mounting levels of debt have limited Beijing's ability to use government-led investment to stimulate the economy.
The Wall Street Journal previously reported that Beijing has been considering the use of unconventional monetary measures[http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-central-bank-cuts-banks-reserve-requirement-ratio-1429436676]—similar to the long-term refinancing operations, or LTROs, used by the European Central Bank—as part of its efforts to improve liquidity and address localgovernment-debt problems. The strategy likely adopted by the PBOC would allow banks in the country toswap local-government debt for loans from the central bank[http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-readies-fresh-easing-to-tackle-specter-of-debt-1430206169?tesla=y], according to The Wall Street Journal report.
The central bank in its latest monetary-policy report reiterated it would continue its prudent monetary policy, maintain appropriate liquidity levels and keep credit growth steady.
It also said the domestic liquidity condition was affected by a stronger U.S. dollar drawing capital out of the country.
China's central banklowered banks' reserve-requirement ratio twice this year[http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-central-bank-kicks-it-upa-notch-1429458102], in a bid to boost the slowing economy.
The PBOC said in the report the country's first-quarter growth was within a reasonable range and price levels were likely to remain low.
China's economy grew 7% year-over-year in the first quarter[http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-first-quarter-growth-slowest-in-six-yearsat-7-1429064535], its slowest pace in six years. Economists say the world's second-largest economy might miss its growth target of about
7% this year[http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-lowers-growth-target-to-about-7-1425515032], as it faces more headwinds despite a number of monetary and fiscal-support measures.
The central bank also called for state banks to align themselves with government policies and direct funds into water resources, infrastructure and real estate. It also urged lenders to tailor policies that support the government's investment drive in infrastructure in
Asia.

Grace Zhu
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Document WSJO000020150508eb58004s9
Markets
ECB Shrugs Off Protests to Stick With QE; It took a long time for the ECB to start quantitative easing . Don’t expect it to rethink that decision rapidly.
By Richard Barley
454 words
15 April 2015
14:33
The Wall Street Journal Online
WSJO
English
Copyright 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Nothing is getting in the way of the European Central Bank's bond-purchase programs: neither worries about negative yields, nor the apparent pickup in the eurozone economy [http://www.wsj.com/articles/eurozone-exports-rise-as-euro-weakens-1429088587]. For now, not even a confetti-throwing protester yelling “End ECB dictatorship!" can put President Mario Draghi off his stride.
The protest was unexpected, but Mr. Draghi's steadfast tone [http://www.wsj.com/articles/ecb-leaves-rates-unchanged-1429098567] shouldn't have been. The minutes of the ECB's March meeting contained repeated references to the need for “full implementation" of the central bank's recent policy decisions. Mr. Draghi himself likened it to a marathon runner thinking about stopping only just after the race began. To change tack so swiftly would give rise to questions about credibility.
The ECB has, however, kept its options open while also reinforcing its current policy settings. Mr. Draghi emphasized the qualitative judgments the ECB would be making in assessing how quantitative easing was affecting inflation expectations and outcomes. The focus is on the medium term—there is no hint here of a knee-jerk ECB eager to cut back on loose monetary policy at the first signs of life in inflation.
Mr. Draghi did acknowledge the risk that ultra-loose monetary policy was “fertile terrain" for the development of threats to financial stability. But he insisted that there were no signs of bubbles yet. With German bond yields now negative as far out as January 2024 and
10-year Bund yields hitting a record low Wednesday below 0.11%, that is questionable. Swaths of the German life insurance sector may yet face tough times [http://www.wsj.com/articles/negative-rates-mean-tough-life-for-german-insurers-heard-on-the-street-1427290094]as low yields clash with the returns they have promised investors, the Bundesbank has warned.
And ECB QE does seem to be acting more forcefully than elsewhere. It may even help to boost bank lending directly, the ECB's latest survey suggests. While early bouts of QE in the U.S. and U.K. were aimed at staving off even worse economic outcomes, the ECB's variant is potentially boosting a recovery that had already got under way late last year.
Still, investors should expect the ECB to stick to its guns. Perhaps the focus should shift onto something else that Mr. Draghi never tires of repeating, but which never seems to garner so much attention: The time is ripe for governments to shoulder their share of the burden in improving the economic growth outlook for the eurozone through labor- and product-market reforms. Monetary policy can't do it alone.
Write to Richard Barley at richard.barley@wsj.com [mailto:richard.barley@wsj.com]
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Document WSJO000020150415eb4f007sm
Markets
ECB Bond-Buying Brings Another Market Mystery; How and why QE works remains a subject of much debate
By Richard Barley
530 words
30 March 2015
10:35
The Wall Street Journal Online

WSJO
English
Copyright 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
If there is one thing that quantitative easing reliably generates, it is questions about how it works.
The European Central Bank's bond-purchase program is no exception. But, this being the eurozone, the puzzles are proving different from elsewhere.
Even the reaction of the government-bond market has proved perplexing. ECB bond purchases were expected to lead to narrower yield gaps between Germany and southern European nations, such as Italy and Spain. But German 10-year yields have fallen while those of
Italy and Spain are little changed from March 6, the last trading day before the ECB began buying bonds. In Spain's case, the yield gap has even widened slightly versus the start of the year.
One theory is that this is because of nerves around Greece, where the government is continuing to labor on economic reform proposals but has yet to develop a plan that satisfies the rest of the eurozone[http://www.wsj.com/articles/greek-bailout-proposals-lack-necessary-detailofficials-say-1427649965]. But set against that is the relatively strong showing put in by Portugal, which might have been expected to be vulnerable to Greek contagion. Portuguese 10-year bonds now yield just 0.45 percentage point more than their Italian equivalents, down from close to 0.9 point at the start of the year.
True, Portugal has had some good news of late: Standard & Poor's lifted its rating outlook to positive this month, and Fitch maintained its positive outlook last Friday even as it cut Greece's rating[http://www.wsj.com/articles/fitch-cuts-greek-credit-rating-cites-lack-of-marketaccess-tight-liquidity-1427492513]. But while Portugal has made economic progress, it still carries “junk" ratings and has more to do to mend its public finances.
At least the eurozone is being spared the debate that plagued the U.K. in particular during its quantitative-easing program about why the economy was flatlining. The eurozone is rebounding[http://www.wsj.com/articles/eurozone-business-confidence-jumps-in-march-
1427706162] and may well be outpacing the U.S. in the first quarter, a development few had forecast. Of course, QE can't take the credit for that. The eurozone recovery was already getting under way late last year, with lower oil prices one of the biggest contributing factors.
But that deepens the puzzle of why Spain and Italy are lagging Germany in the bond market. A better growth outlook should be more beneficial for highly-indebted countries whose bonds are perceived to contain credit risk than safe-haven nations like Germany. That suggests that it is perhaps technical factors that are to blame—both Italy and Spain have been issuing long-dated debt that may be weighing on the market—with economic fundamentals counting for little.
The familiar problem with QE is that no one knows what the market would be doing if the ECB were not buying bonds. Perhaps Greece might then be looming larger as a threat, and the yield gap between Germany and southern Europe might be yawning wider. The argument elsewhere is that QE staved off worse outcomes: if it is preventing a resurgence of the eurozone debt crisis, then that is equally true for the eurozone.
Write to Richard Barley at richard.barley@wsj.com[mailto:richard.barley@wsj.com]
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Document WSJO000020150330eb3u005eh
REVIEW & OUTLOOK (Editorial)
Japan's Devaluation Warning for Europe
833 words
18 March 2015
The Wall Street Journal Asia
AWSJ
13
English
Copyright © 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Amid the excitement as the European Central Bank began sovereign bond buying last week, Europeans might have missed that real wages in Japan fell again in January. Japanese households earn 7.5% less in inflation-adjusted terms now than before the 2008 financial panic, and about half of that decline has come during Tokyo's " quantitative easing " program. This is a warning for Europe.

The similarities between Japan in 2013 as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took power and the eurozone now are striking. Japan was in deflation; Europe has appeared close to it. Japanese worried that the yen, which had risen to around 77 yen per dollar in 2012, was badly overvalued. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi warned in April last year, when the euro was about $1.38, that "a rise in the exchange rate, all else being equal, implies a tightening of monetary conditions, a downward impact on inflation and potentially a threat to the ongoing recovery."
So the Bank of Japan and ECB have fired their monetary bazookas at the deflation threat. The main goal has been competitive devaluation. With loan demand and banks weak, the traditional mechanism of monetary stimulus -- increased liquidity and lower interest rates stimulating more lending -- wouldn't work. But policy makers hope a weaker currency will boost exports, higher earnings for exporters will trigger stronger business investment and trickle down to higher wages, which will lead to more domestic consumption and growth.
The falling earnings of workers tell you how well that has worked in Japan. Exporters haven't responded to yen depreciation by cutting their prices overseas to boost global market share. Instead, Japanese firms have kept overseas prices roughly the same and exploited the weaker yen to book higher yen-denominated earnings. After adjusting for the exchange rate, exports are flat -- still roughly 25% less than their level before 2008.
Because investment is declining, worker productivity isn't increasing and wage increases are negative after inflation. Meanwhile, the weak yen has driven up import prices. This leaves households paying more for goods they consume every day, while wages don't keep up.
Europe might appear immune to some of these negative effects. Today's low oil price will offset the rising prices Europeans pay for other imports, a benefit Japan didn't enjoy in 2013 and most of 2014. Parts of Europe, especially Germany, have seen real wage growth in recent months from cheaper energy. No eurozone government seems ready to enact as monumentally foolish a policy as Japan's consumption-tax hike, which dealt another blow to consumers.
Look closer, though, and similarities appear. The main explanation for Japan's stagnant business investment and falling real wages is Mr.
Abe's failure to enact the "third arrow" of reform. Businesses face the same disincentives to invest as ever -- overregulation, high taxes, protectionism and lack of competition.
The unreformed labor market is a particular offender. Job creation is concentrated on part-time workers as companies shy away from hiring full-timers who come with onerous restrictions on firing. That explains why real wages aren't rising despite a tight labor market.
The same lack of reform typifies the eurozone. The boldest reform on offer is France's proposed Macron Law, which among other things increases the number of Sundays a shop can open each year -- to all of 12 from five. Spain, Portugal and Ireland have liberalized labor markets somewhat and implemented other pro-growth measures, but basketcases like Italy remain mired in red tape.
And sure enough, as in Japan, exporters in these unreformed economies have exploited the euro's downward slide -- to a 12-year low of
$1.0457 Monday from $1.40 last May -- mainly to boost profit margins. The eurozone is more regionally varied than Japan, so in some countries this earnings boost could stimulate production, investment, productivity gains and eventually rising wages.
But rising import prices are a particular danger in less-competitive southern Europe, which needs reform to bring business costs into line with the Germans, Dutch and other northerners. Instead, euro devaluation could push up prices for imports without compensating cost reductions as QE's low interest rates ease the political pressure for reform. Workers could find themselves in a vise familiar to the
Japanese.
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Japan's present isn't Europe's inevitable future. The eurozone isn't aging as fast, and its regulatory ossification isn't as severe. Perhaps something in the culture, or the water, will spur more competitive business behavior if export profitability improves. Maybe Europe's relatively stronger unions will extract bigger pay increases.
But no less an authority than Mr. Draghi understands the limits of monetary policy and competitive devaluation -- and perhaps the dangers, too. He has spent the past year begging Europe's political class to enact the supply-side reforms that would keep his monetary policies from turning Europe Japanese.
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Document AWSJ000020150317eb3i00009
Markets
Hong Kong Dollar Peg Doesn’t Fit in Swiss Hole
By Aaron Back
502 words
23 January 2015
05:40
The Wall Street Journal Online
WSJO
English
Copyright 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
The sudden death of the Swiss franc ceiling set off fears that other fixed exchange rates could be next. But Hong Kong's storied peg with the U.S. dollar is as solid as ever.
Superficially, Hong Kong faces a similar situation to Switzerland. The Swiss National Bank was buying huge volumes of euros to hold down the franc, swelling reserves and leading to rapid money creation. There was little inflation, but worrying froth in the Swiss property market. Imminent quantitative easing by the European Central Bank added to the pressure.
Hong Kong's peg to the U.S. dollar has similarly forced the territory to import ultra-loose monetary policy from the U.S. Rock bottom interest rates in Hong Kong fueled surging property values. Critics have gone so far as to blame the peg for youth dissatisfaction in the streets.
Some investors think Hong Kong could follow the Swiss. There was a surge in the volatility of Hong Kong dollar options the day after the
SNB's move and the spot price of the Hong Kong dollar has moved toward the strong side of its narrow trading band.
But comparing the franc to the Hong Kong dollar is like putting a square peg in a round hole. The SNB's franc ceiling was a discretionary move undertaken for a few years by a central bank that viewed the policy as one of its tools among many.
Hong Kong's currency board, by contrast, is an institutionalized, rules-based system in place since 1983, making it harder and even riskier to change on a whim.
What's more, while the SNB was facing a coming flood of euro liquidity, Hong Kong is now likely to see a receding tide of dollars. The
Federal Reserve has stopped asset purchases and will eventually raise interest rates, letting some air out of the Hong Kong property market.
If anything, pressure on the Hong Kong currency may soon turn in the opposite direction. If the Fed keeps tightening and the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen even as China's economy slows, speculators could start betting on devaluation.
Not that they will succeed. Hong Kong authorities have been willing to take huge levels of pain to maintain the peg. They allowed GDP to contract by 5.9% in 1998 rather than succumb to depreciation pressure. And with the domestic political situation still unsettled, Hong
Kong is unlikely to abandon a policy that has anchored the financial system for decades.
In the very long term, switching the peg from the greenback to the Chinese yuan is possible. But that can only happen once the Chinese currency is a freely convertible international one, which it won't be for the foreseeable future. Traders buying call options on the Hong
Kong dollar hoping for Swiss-like capitulation should find better uses for their money.
Write to Aaron Back at aaron.back@wsj.com[mailto:aaron.back@wsj.com]
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Document WSJO000020150123eb1n003ux
World News: Japan: BOJ Cuts Inflation View but Keeps Policy Steady
By Tatsuo Ito and Takashi Nakamichi
403 words
22 January 2015

The Wall Street Journal Asia
AWSJ
4
English
Copyright © 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
TOKYO -- The Bank of Japan again cut its inflation outlook but declined to adjust its key policy tool, quantitative easing , citing prospects for stronger economic growth that could fuel price gains.
The BOJ reduced its median forecast for the average rise in the consumer-price index in the year starting April 1 to 1.0%, from 1.7% set in October. It was the sharpest cut since BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda took office in March 2013 vowing to defeat deflation.
The steep drop in oil prices has frustrated the central bank's efforts to hit its 2% inflation target. But the lower prices, while weighing on inflation in the short term, are also expected to provide some relief to Japan's consumers, eventually giving them extra spending power that will fuel inflation.
Japan's economy is also expected to receive a jolt from a 3.5 trillion yen ($29.6 billion) supplemental government spending package, which is expected to be passed by the Diet sometime in the first quarter.
The forecast remains fairly bullish considering the recent drop in the inflation rate to below 1%. The core consumer-price index -- adjusted for volatile fresh-food prices and the impact of a national sales tax increase in April -- fell in November to 0.7%, the lowest level in more than a year.
With energy prices down more than 50% from last year's peak, private economists see the inflation rate falling back into negative territory this year.
In a news conference Wednesday, Mr. Kuroda reiterated his view that on-year monthly inflation will likely reach 2% roughly by spring
2016, adding that the timing may depend on oil prices.
The central bank raised its price forecast for the year starting in April 2016 to 2.2% from 2.1%. It also sharply raised its forecast for inflation-adjusted gross domestic product to 2.1% in fiscal 2015 from 1.5%.
Few economists expected the BOJ to expand its asset purchases this month, but as had been expected, the central bank extended by one year a cheap-loan program meant to spur bank lending that was due to expire in March. Under the program, the BOJ provides nearly interest-free loans to commercial banks.
---
Yasuyo Sato contributed to this article.
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