Noteworthy Cool-Season Extreme Weather Events over Central and Eastern North
America Associated with Strong Extratropical Cyclones
Ph.D. Dissertation Prospectus
Alicia M. Bentley
Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences
University at Albany, State University of New York
1. Introduction
a. Motivation and purpose
b. Literature review
c. Research questions and hypotheses
This Ph.D. dissertation will attempt to answer the following research questions in an
effort to address the research goals stated in section 1a:
1. When do strong ECs leading to noteworthy cool-season EWEs over central and
eastern North America most frequently occur?
2. Which combinations of baroclinic, diabatic, and barotropic processes are most
likely to yield strong ECs leading to noteworthy cool-season EWEs over central
and eastern North America?
3. Are the combinations of baroclinic, diabatic, and barotropic processes most likely
to yield strong ECs leading to noteworthy cool-season EWEs over central and
eastern North America influenced by geographical location, season, and
teleconnection pattern?
4. Are there differences in the structure, motion, and evolution of the upper- and
lower-tropospheric features associated with the formation and motion of strong
ECs leading to noteworthy cool-season EWEs over central and eastern North
America that are governed by different combinations of baroclinic, diabatic, and
barotropic processes?
5. Is there a relationship between the predictability of strong ECs leading to
noteworthy cool-season EWEs over central and eastern North America and the
combinations of baroclinic, diabatic, and barotropic processes associated with
their formation?
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In order to answer research question 1, the author proposes the construction of a
1979–present climatology of strong ECs leading to noteworthy cool-season EWEs over
central and eastern North America. In order to answer research questions 2–5, the author
proposes the creation of a three-dimensional phase space in which the relative
contributions of baroclinic, diabatic, and barotropic processes may be quantified during
the evolution of strong ECs identified in the 1979–present climatology. Based on
research questions 1–5, the author hypothesizes that:
1. Strong ECs identified in the 1979–present climatology will occur most frequently
in the midwinter when baroclinic forcings are maximized in the midlatitudes.
2. The majority of strong ECs identified in the 1979–present climatology will cluster
along the high ends of the baroclinic and diabatic axes in this envisioned threedimensional phase space.
3. The combinations of baroclinic, diabatic, and barotropic processes most likely to
yield strong ECs identified in the 1979–present climatology will be influenced by
the proximity of these ECs to a major moisture source, the seasonal cycle of
baroclinic and convectively driven forcings in the NH, and planetary-scale regime
transitions.
4. The majority of strong ECs identified in the 1979–present climatology will form
downstream of an upper-tropospheric disturbance, with strong ECs associated
with dominant contributions from diabatic processes forming upstream of a welldefined lower-tropospheric corridor of meridional water vapor transport.
5. Strong ECs identified in the 1979–present climatology that are associated with
dominant contributions from diabatic processes will be the least predictable,
likely due to the influence of convective parameterization schemes on model
forecasts.
2. Data and methodology
a. Datasets
The primary data source for the proposed Ph.D. dissertation will be the 0.5° National
Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis
(CFSR) global gridded dataset (Saha et al. 2010), with data available at 64 vertical levels
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every 6 h during the period 1979–present. The 0.5° NCEP CFSR dataset is the first
reanalysis dataset to be created using a global coupled atmosphere–ocean–land-surface–
sea-ice model and to assimilate satellite radiances over the entire period of availability,
making it preferable to its predecessor, the 2.5° NCEP–National Center for Atmospheric
Research reanalysis dataset (Kalnay et al. 1996; Kistler et al. 2001).
Daily teleconnection indices, calculated from the 0.5° NCEP CFSR dataset using the
methodology of Archambault et al. (2008), will be used to determine whether the
combinations of baroclinic, diabatic, and barotropic processes most likely to yield strong
ECs leading to noteworthy cool-season EWEs over central and eastern North America are
influenced by teleconnection pattern. Daily teleconnection indices are utilized in order to
capture rapid planetary-scale regime transitions (Archambault et al. 2010) that may be
missed when solely utilizing monthly teleconnection indices.
The second-generation of the Earth System Research Laboratory/Physical Sciences
Division Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) Reforecast dataset (Hamill et al.
2013) will be used in addition to the 0.5° NCEP CFSR dataset in order to address the
relationship between the predictability of strong ECs leading to noteworthy cool-season
EWEs over central and eastern North America and the combinations of baroclinic,
diabatic, and barotropic processes associated with their formation. The GEFS Reforecast
dataset, created using the 2012 version of the NCEP GEFS, includes forecasts from an
11-member ensemble (starting from 0000 UTC only) during the period 1985–present.
The specific methodology for assessing the predictability of strong ECs leading to
noteworthy cool-season EWEs over central and eastern North America will be discussed
in section 3d.
b. EC tracks (1979–present)
EC tracks will be obtained from the 0.5° NCEP CFSR dataset during the period
1979–present using the Hodges tracking algorithm (Hodges 1999).
Discuss other studies that effectively used Hodges 1999 to track ECs in reanalysis
datasets (specifically CFSR) and GCMs. See Hodges 1999 citations for references.
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c. Selection of strong ECs leading to noteworthy cool-season EWEs over central and
eastern North America
d. Candidate metrics for evaluating baroclinic, diabatic, and barotropic processes
during the evolution of strong ECs
3. Dissertation plan
a. Climatology of strong ECs leading to noteworthy cool-season EWEs over central and
eastern North America (1979–present)
b. Cyclone-relative composite analysis
c. Multiscale case studies
d. Assessment of predictability of strong ECs dominated by various combinations of
baroclinic, diabatic, and barotropic processes
Dissertation outline
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