1
ANNEX 2: MONITORING AND EVALUATION FRAMEWORK: ADB REVISION 2 JULY 2014
Preliminary Log frame: Urban Climate Change Resilience Trust Fund
IMPACT
Urban
populations,
especially the urban
poor,
are
less
vulnerable to the direct
and indirect impacts of
climate change
Indicator 1
Number of people (including poor
and vulnerable disaggregated by
sex) made less vulnerable to
climate and disaster risks directly
and indirectly as a result of urban
climate change resilience (UCCR)
investments
Indicator 2
Proportion of a sample of people’s
resilience (including poor and
vulnerable disaggregated by sex)
that has been improved as a result
of the Program.
Indicator 3
Level of damages avoided as a
result
of
UCCR
planning,
regulations and investments.
22 November 2013 – Revised 12 June 2014
Baseline
Nil
1st year 2014
none
Milestone 1 (2015)
[Up to 200,000]
Milestone (2018)
[1 million]
Target (2021)
[2.2 million (of which 1.1
million will be women) by
2021].
Source
The Monitoring and Evaluation Framework (MEF) set up at the onset of the UCCRTF will monitor this data. This indicator will
feed into Climate Change DRF indicator. It will consider the methodology developed for the DRF reporting i.e to gather both
direct and indirect data as well as sex disaggregated data. The milestone has been based on average size of cities in each of
the 6 priority countries, estimates of people at risks and average populations of poor people.
Baseline
1st year 2014
Milestone 1 (2015) Milestone (2018)
Target (2021)
0
Review of indicators
At least [50%] of the poor in
methodology.
areas which has had a
UCCR intervention have
TORs for MEF
improved their resilience.
baseline study in
place
Source
Baseline study to be conducted shortly after the start of the Program looking at sample cohort population in cities where early
action will take place. Methodology on and definition of (??) resilience has to be investigated and agreed during MEF setup.
Mainly based on evaluation study set up at the onset of the Program. This will help assess the quality of support for people
monitored under Indicator 1. Proposed methodologies could use DFID resilience indicators, soon to be available in a source
book.
Baseline
1st year 2014
Milestone 1 (2015) Milestone (2018)
Target (2021)
Review of indicators
[14%] of damages averted
methodology
against the damages of a 1
in 20 year probability of an
event happening in each city
under UCCRTF intervention
Source
This is an impact indicator where baselines exist but are constructed wholly based on source data for other cities. Baselines will
need to be developed for each of the cities. This is also an experimental indicator to assess whether level of damages avoided is
a good measure of success of the Program. Methodology to be investigated and agreed
Assumptions on methodologies
Indicator 1: Feed into DFID Departmental
Results Framework indicator on climate
change. Directly as a result of UCCR
interventions and indirectly through
planning and institutional capacity building
activities (i.e. numbers trained)
Indicator 2: This indicator is being
developed to help with impact
evaluations. In all likelihood the indicator
and baselines will support the impact
evaluation for UCCRTF. The assumption
here is that at least 20 cities will have
planning programs and interventions
which will affect a large part of the poorest
populations. The calculations for exposed
populations within economic appraisal
used average cities, OECD data on
exposed populations, exposed population
growth and urbanization growth rates
going out to 2050 to arrive at exposed
populations.
Indicator 3: Assumption for target based
on assumptions within DFID economic
appraisal.
Methodology to include modeling
damages in each city and compare
counterfactual in supported cities
2
OUTCOME
The partnership and
UCCRTF-funded
projects
delivers
UCCR
benefits;
demonstrates potential
for
expanded
integration of UCCR
concerns in urban
development practice
by the ADB, and
leverages
complementary action
and financing by other
urban
development
actors.
Indicator 4
Proportion
of
ADB
urban
development and/or climate change
portfolio in prioritized countries that
integrates climate change resilience
into its planning and design
Baseline
[$1-2
billion]
investments
in
prioritized
countries
Urban
climate
change resilience
not incorporated
into
ADB
Environment
guidelines.
1st year 2014
MOU with 1 other
financing partner
concluded.
UCCRTF secretariat set
up and staffing plan in
place.
DFID seconded staff in
post
Framework toolkit to guide
ADB operational units in
incorporating
urban
climate resilience into
investments
are
developed and shared.
Milestone 1 (2015)
Review of the UCCRP
Theory of Change among
the financing partners
In
countries
where
UCCRTF is implemented,
[5%] of ADB urban sector
lending will be in climate
vulnerable sectors and
incorporate
UCCR
principles.
Milestone (2018)
In
countries
where
UCCRTF is implemented,
[20%] of ADB urban sector
lending will be in climate
vulnerable sectors and
incorporate
UCCR
principles.
Target (2021)
[40%] of ADB urban sector
lending in climate vulnerable
sectors incorporates UCCR
principles by 2021.
Assumptions on methodologies
Assumption is that shareholding
teams within DFID supports this
effort.
The review of ADB’s
Urban Operational Plan
includes a focus on
UCCR.
Source
Based on 6 monthly monitoring of ADB urban lending portfolio and the extent to which UCCR has been included. Similar to ADB DMF indicator
on’ number of adaptation projects’. Methodology to be set during MEF creation stage within 3 months of the Trust Fund set up.
COMPONENT 1
OUTPUT 1
Strengthened capacity
of urban planning
authorities
to
incorporate
UCCR
considerations
into
city-wide and sectoral
planning, budgeting,
regulation
and
implementation.
Planning
Indicator 5
Number and extent to which city
planning processes have integrated
climate change and disaster risks in
city planning as a result of the
program.
Baseline
To be determined
in 2014.
1st year 2014
Finalize city selection
criteria.
TORs for secretariat in
place.
Milestone 1 (2015)
At least [5] cities
supported
through
UCCRTF to produce cross
sectoral, city wide climate
change resilience plans
Milestone (2018)
At least [15] cities
supported
through
UCCRTF to produce cross
sectoral, city wide climate
change resilience plans.
Target (2021)
At least [25] cities supported
through UCCRTF to produce
cross sectoral city wide climate
change resilience plans.
Assumptions on methodologies
The national enabling environment
becomes increasingly coherent with
and complementary to city-level
planning and regulation
Capacity for UCCR planning and
management
is
increasingly
recognized as a priority for urban
planning
New capacity building initiatives are
catalyzed by UCCRTF.
Milestone 1 (2015)
Milestone (2018)
At least [2] cities are
accessing or developing a
domestic
funding
mechanism to implement
climate change plan.
Target (2021)
At least [4] cities are accessing
or developing a domestic
funding
mechanism
to
implement climate change
plan.
Assumptions on methodologies
Municipal Governments is sound, and
has some independent decision
making over municipal finances
Milestone 1 (2015)
Milestone (2018)
Target (2021)
Assumptions on methodologies
Implementation guidelines
(IG) agreed by all donors
and 1st city applications
using IGs in place
Applications received for
first cities that meet the
city selection criteria
Source
Annual joint capacity assessment (including cross-city peer review)
Indicator 6
City governments access domestic
sources of finance to support
implementation of climate change
resilience plans.
Indicator 7
22 November 2013 – Revised 12 June 2014
Baseline
1st year 2014
None
Source
Municipal budget data
Baseline
1st year 2014
3
Number of UCCR soft measures
adopted by city decision makers as
a result of UCCR planning efforts.
OUTPUT 2
Multi-stakeholder
mechanisms
that
include poor and
vulnerable people are
part of UCCR planning
and
investment
design.
Indicator 8
Extent and quality of engagement of
stakeholders, particularly poor and
vulnerable people including women,
in city level UCCR planning.
Indicator 9
Community
led
initiatives
implemented which target the urban
poor.
Indicator 10
Training and capacity building of
city professional and urban poor
groupings
COMPONENT 2
OUTPUT 3
UCCR
focused
projects are identified
developed
and
financed by both public
and private financing
sources emerging from
UCCRTF or other
UCCR
planning
processes.
Financial resources of the
program committed to
CDIA for UCCR related
pre-feasibility studies
22 November 2013 – Revised 12 June 2014
At least [20-30] soft
measures initiated, at least
2/3 of which are on the list
of priority measures
defined in the IG.
At least [40] soft measures
implemented across 20 cities,
at least 2/3 of which are on the
list of priority measures defined
in
the
Implementation
Guidelines.
Source
Annual joint capacity assessment (including cross-city peer review). Annual analysis of coverage and quality of city-wide plans and regulations
Baseline
1st year 2014
Milestone 1 (2015)
Milestone (2018)
Target (2021)
Applications in at least 3
All planning processes All planning processes a) Improved quality of
cities linked to UCCRP
initiated
include initiated
include engagement of stakeholders in
are engaging stakeholders stakeholder engagement stakeholder engagement at least 20 cities in planning
as part of planning and
that involves urban poor that involves urban poor and investments design
investment design
groups
and
strong groups
and
strong b) Proportion of stakeholders
representation of women representation of women that are poor and vulnerable
(40%).
(40%).
are 40%, of which women are
half.
Source
Stakeholder perception surveys monitoring the stakeholder engagement within
DFID on stakeholder participation.
Baseline
1st year 2014
Milestone 1 (2015)
To be determined A mechanism which
At least [1] community led
in 2014.
enables ADB to support
initiative targeting the
community led initiatives
urban poor has been
is identified and initiated
planned
Source
Annual analysis of coverage and quality of city-wide plans and regulations
Baseline
1st year 2014
Milestone 1 (2015)
To be determined Mechanisms
which At least [200] city
in 2014.
enables ADB to support professional and urban
training and capacity poor groupings given
building is identified and awareness training and/or
initiated
engaged
in
UCCR
planning and investment
design.
Source
Projects identification, preparation and investments
Indicator 11
Baseline
1st year 2014
Number of resilience projects Potentially
[5] Implementation
identified, developed, financed, and cities already have guidelines finalized.
implemented which are UCCR- UCCR planning
focused emerging from UCCRTF and
project 1st set of city
activities.
identification
applications
completed as a received and vetted
result of prior work
with other partners Project preparation
(ACCCRN,
UN initiated in at least
Habitat, etc).
3-5 cities
Indicator 12
At least [6] measures
identified
in
climate
resilience plansidentified,
at least 2/3 of which are
on the list of priority soft
measures defined in the
IG.
Milestone 1 (2015)
Project preparation
initiated for at least
[5] projects
Priority soft measures include early
warning
systems,
surveillance
systems, spatial mapping, land use
planning, water use and demand
systems work, regulatory or policy
reforms. These measures should
emerge from the planning processes
with UCCR thinking but which are
identified and considered feasible for
implementation.
Assumptions on methodologies
Assume urban poor groups in
vulnerable areas exist and can be
harnessed to represent community
needs.
planning processes. Methodology for indicator suggested by
Milestone (2018)
At least [10] community
led initiatives targeting the
urban poor have been
planned/initiated
Target (2021)
At least [20] community led
initiatives implemented in
targeted
vulnerable
communities
Initiated/implemented.
Assumptions on methodologies
Municipal Governments is sound, and
has some independent decision
making over municipal finances.
Milestone (2018)
At least [1000] people
given awareness training,
have
participated
in
knowledge
workshops
and/or engaged in UCCR
planning and investment
design.
Target (2021)
[5000] trained or participated in
training
and
knowledge
workshops, and/or engaged in
UCCR
planning
and
investment design.
Assumptions on methodologies
Multiple training to same individuals
is assumed here.
Milestone (2018)
At least 20 investments
identified and assessed
and have led to [10-15]
bankable projects linked to
finance.
Target (2021)
At least [20] cities with
investment programs with
UCCR criteria have led to
[25] projects linked to
finance.
Source
Monitored through project monitoring data bases and quarterly analysis of project approvals. Six monthly analyses of Project
Monitoring Reports, validates by site visits by a sample of projects.
Baseline
1st year 2014
Milestone 1 (2015) Milestone (2018)
Target (2021)
Assumptions on methodologies
City-level actors (including the urban
poor) are effective in planning and
managing
UCCRTF-financed
and
sponsored projects
UCCR
support
criteria
included
involvement of urban poor groupings.
Assumptions on methodologies
4
Value of public sector investments
incorporating UCCR approaches
including financing and technical
support from governments, private
sector, and other donors.
To be determined
in 2014.
Project preparation
initiated in at least
3-5 cities
At least [$50]
million of leveraged
investments
identified
Around [$250] million of
public and private sector
leveraged
investments
identified/mobilized.
At
least 25% of financing is
from non ADB sources.
Around [$1 billion] of public
and
private
sector
investments leveraged and
mobilized. At least $50
million of which is leveraged
from domestic sources
through
co-financing
arrangements.
Partnerships brokered by the Program are
sufficiently robust and are not just
established to access funding
UCCR continues to compete effectively
with other demands for financing and
technical support
Returns to investment in emerging UCCR
markets, products and services provide
sufficient incentive to retain the interest of
partners
Target (2021)
Assumptions on methodologies
The Program is part of general urban
development programming. Much of the
benefits will relate to general development
benefits. These should be captured to
demonstrate co benefits.
Source
Six-monthly partnership survey. Project Monitoring Reports where leveraging is captured.
OUTPUT 4
The Program captures
development
and
mitigation co-bene fits
Indicator 13
Net change in emissions as a result
of UCCR investments
Baseline
Indicator 14
Number of targeted population who
have access to climate resilient
infrastructure
Baseline
1st year 2014
Milestone 1 (2015)
To be determined through each project
Milestone (2018)
Source
See methodology by DFID on emissions monitoring. Other development benefits will be part of the management and project
monitoring reporting for each project. ADB to select appropriate indicators to represent.
1st year 2014
Draft
indicator
investigated as part
of MEF
Milestone 1 (2015)
Projects identified
target
improving
access to climate
resilience
infrastructure
Milestone (2018)
Projects identified target
providing improved access
to
climate
resilient
infrastructure to at least
[500,000] people.
Target (2021)
[At least 1 million] people are
targeted to receive improved
access to climate resilient
infrastructure.
Assumptions on methodologies
The Program is part of general urban
development programming. Much of the
benefits will relate to general development
benefits. These should be captured to
demonstrate co benefits.
Source
See methodology by DFID on emissions monitoring. Other development benefits will be part of the management and project
monitoring reporting for each project. ADB to select appropriate indicators to represent. Project closure reports and assessment
from independent evaluation unit.
COMPONENT 3
OUTPUT 5
City level actors,
including the urban
poor, in both Program
and
non-Program
partner cities are able
to
collectively
generate,
access,
understand, and utilize
UCCR
knowledge
products in urban
projects.
Knowledge and partnership
Indicator 15
Extent to which city level targeted
audiences
are
accessing,
understanding and using UCCR
knowledge.
1st year 2014
Draft
Knowledge
plan initiated.
Target (2021)
At least [20 cities[ or [40
projects] generate UCCR
knowledge that is in turn
utilized on the ground (for
capacity building, planning,
investment, management.
Knowledge
generated
through UCCR activities and
learning
plan
are
disseminated and used.
Assumptions on methodologies
The political economy of urban
development in Program target cities
leaves space for evidence based policy
and practice
The benefits of evidence based policy and
practice gain greater traction in the
political economy of urban development in
target cities and among national and
international audiences
Source
Six-monthly sample KAP survey of target audiences. See DFID indicator on knowledge awareness. Annual review of UCCR
publications
Baseline
1st year 2014
Milestone 1 (2015) Milestone (2018)
Target (2021)
To be determined None
Peer
to
peer UCCR peer learning UCCR
peer
learning
in 2014
learning initiated.
includes [20 cities] with expands to cities beyond the
evidence of active use
Program and shows strong
Demand driven knowledge evidence of use.
exchanges
occurring
between
[10
cities]
supported by UCCRTF
Assumptions on methodologies
Evidence base from existing products of
knowledge partners that will be influential
on other outputs
UCCR
synopsis
paper finalised.
A mechanism which
enables ADB to
fund
action
research
is
identified
and
initiated
Indicator 16
UCCR peer learning mechanism
strengthened
or
established
(including the extent to which they
reflect the needs and capabilities of
the urban poor).
OUTPUT 6
Baseline
Indicator 17
22 November 2013 – Revised 12 June 2014
Milestone 1 (2015)
Action
research
funding mechanism
established.
UCCR knowledge
platform
established
and
knowledge
dissemination plan
finalized.
Milestone (2018)
City level practitioners
collaborate to produce at
least [5 -8] different
knowledge products (case
studies,
frameworks,
curriculum development,
etc).
Source
UCCR knowledge website tracking and KAP surveys by mayors and other target audiences. Six-monthly sample KAP survey of
target audiences; annual review of UCC publications.
Baseline
1st year 2014
Milestone 1 (2015) Milestone (2018)
Target (2021)
Assumptions on methodologies
5
Program demonstrates
increased
harmonization,
alignment
and
collaboration around
UCCR in priority cities.
Extent to which international and
national targeted audiences are
accessing, understanding and using
UCCR knowledge.
3
Financing
partners
within
the UFPF and RF
ACCCRN program
MOU with 1 other
financing partner
concluded.
[At least 1 new
financing partner
added to program].
[Parallel financing
agreement with 2
development
organizations].
Source
Six-monthly sample KAP survey of target audiences
22 November 2013 – Revised 12 June 2014
At least [2 projects]
developed through the
Program are linked to
finance other than through
ADB.
At least [10 urban]
development
actors
(development
banks,
private sector, civil society,
cities) are aware of'
utilizingUCCRTF
supported
knowledge
products
to
plan
investments and activities
on UCCR
At least [4 projects]
developed through UCCRTF
access additional funding .
At
least
[20
urban]
development
institutions
(development banks, private
sector, civil society) are
UCCRTF
supported
knowledge products to plan
investments and activities on
UCCR.
6
22 November 2013 – Revised 12 June 2014