‫תטיסרבינוא הפיח‬
‫תיב רפסה ידימלתל וח"ל‬
UNIVERSITY OF HAIFA
INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL
THE DYNAMICS OF CONFLICT:
WAR INITIATION, EVOLUTION, AND TERMINATION
Dr. Carmela Lutmar
Course Number: 702.3193
Semester: Fall 2014
Class Time: Wednesdays, 12:00 – 15:00
Class Location: Terrace 2001
Office Hours: TBA
Location: Terrace Bldg. 4016
Phone: 050-8638942
E-Mail: clutmar@poli.haifa.ac.il
Course Description:
This course examines the dynamics of interstate conflict—its inception, development, and
termination—from a variety of perspectives: the international system and the society of states; the
domestic arena and public opinion; and the identities, beliefs, and perceptions of decisionmakers. We do that by undertaking a comprehensive review of the literature on theories in
international relations. We examine the leading theories, their key variables, the causal paths
connecting them, and the possible ways to test them. We also give some attention to the degree of
empirical support for various theories and hypotheses. Our survey includes research utilizing
comparative case studies, quantitative empirical methods, and formal modeling approaches. We
also give some attention to methodological questions relating to epistemology and research
design. Our primary focus, however, is on the logical coherence and analytical limitations of the
theories and the kinds of research designs that might be useful in testing them. We’ll also try to
address some components of conflict resolution – mediation, negotiation, etc.
Course Requirements:

Two critical reviews: 20% of the final grade (10% each) – 5-7 pp each review

Simulation: 30% (report of 6-8 pp)

Final Paper: 50% (20 pp)
50913 ‫ הפיח‬,‫למרכה רה‬Mount Carmel, Haifa 31905 , Israel Tel: + 972 4 8240766 Fax: + 972 4 8240391
E-mail: overseas@research.haifa.ac.il
‫תטיסרבינוא הפיח‬
‫תיב רפסה ידימלתל וח"ל‬
UNIVERSITY OF HAIFA
INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL
Course Outline and Reading List
1. Realism, Neorealism: anarchy, security dilemma theory (the spiral model),
Prisoner’s Dilemma, Liberalism, Neoliberalism and International Institutions
―Symposium: The Realist Paradigm and Degenerative versus Progressive Research Program.‖
Responses from Waltz, Walt, Elman, Schweller, Christensen. 1997. APSR 91(4): 899-936
Jervis, Robert. 1998. ―Realism in the Study of World Politics. IO 52(4): 971-91.
Kenneth N. Waltz. 1989. "The Origins of War in Neorealist Theory." Journal of
Interdisciplinary History 18(4): 615-28.
Martin, Lisa L. and Beth A. Simmons. 1998. ―Theories and Empirical Studies of International
Institutions.‖ International Organization 52(4): 729-757
Jervis, Robert. 1999. ―Realism, Neoliberalism, and Cooperation: Understanding the Debate. IS
24(1): 42-63
Recommended Readings
Morgenthau, Hans J. 1985. (Revised Kenneth W. Thompson). Politics Among Nations:
The Struggle for Power and Peace NY: McGraw-Hill. Chapters 1-3, 8-10, 11-14 (First
published in 1948)
Thucydides. The Peloponnesian Wars (Modern Library College Edition) Book I, all;
Book II, 1-65; Book III, 36-84; Book V, 84-115; Book VII, 42-87
Doyle, Michael. 1996. Ways of War and Peace: Realism, Liberalism, and Socialism
NY: W.W. Norton, Part One, pp. 41-204
Waltz, Kenneth N. 1959. Man, the State, and War NY: Columbia UP, especially
chapters 6–7, pp. 159-223
Wolfers, Arnold. 1962. Discord and Collaboration: Essays on International Politics
Baltimore: Johns Hopkins UP. Chapters 4, 6, 7, 8, 10
Keohane, Robert O. 1986. Neorealism and Its Critics NY: Columbia UP. Chapters 1-7 (1-203),
and chapters 9-11 (255-346).
Waltz, Kenneth N. 1979. Theory of International Politics NY: McGraw-Hill. Read All
Waltz, Kenneth N. 1990. ―Realist Thought and Neorealist Theory.‖ Journal of
International Affairs 44(1): 21-37
Gilpin, Robert. 1981. War and Change in World Politics NY: Cambridge UP. Chs. 2-5
Symposium: The Realist Paradigm and Degenerative versus Progressive Research Program.‖
Responses from Waltz, Walt, Elman, Schweller, Christensen. 1997. APSR 91(4): 899-936
Powell, Robert. 1994. The Neorealist-Neoliberal Debate.‖ IO 48(2): 313-40
Schweller, Randall and David Priess. 1997. ―A Tale of two Realisms: The Institutions
Debate.‖ Mershon International Studies Review 41(1): 1-32
Moravcsik, Andrew. 1997. ―Taking Preferences Seriously: A Positive Liberal Theory of
International Politics.‖ IO 51(4): 513-53
50913 ‫ הפיח‬,‫למרכה רה‬Mount Carmel, Haifa 31905 , Israel Tel: + 972 4 8240766 Fax: + 972 4 8240391
E-mail: overseas@research.haifa.ac.il
‫תטיסרבינוא הפיח‬
‫תיב רפסה ידימלתל וח"ל‬
UNIVERSITY OF HAIFA
INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL
Goldstein, Judith, Robert Keohane, and Anne-Marie Slaughter. 2000. ―Introduction:
Legalization and World Politics.‖ IO 54(3): 385-399
2. Culture in International Relations + Criticizing the “Isms”…..
Michael C. Desch. 1998. "Culture Clash: Assessing the Importance of Ideas in Security Studies."
International Security, 23(1): 141-70.
Alastair Iain Johnston, 1995. "Thinking about Strategic Culture." International Security 19(4):
32-64
Bercovitch, Jacob and Elgstrom O. 2001. Culture and International Mediation: Exploring
Theoretical and Empirical Linkages, International Negotiation 6(1): pp. 3-23.
3. Leaders – Good Dictators vs Bad Dictators
Hermann, Margaret G. 1980 ― Explaining Foreign Policy Behavior Using the Personal
Characteristics of Political Leaders. ISQ 24(1): 7-46
The Dictator’s Handbook: why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics 2012. Bruce
Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith. Public Affairs Publishers
Chan, Steve. 1997. ―In Search of Democratic Peace: Problems and Promise Mershon
International Studies Review, 41(1): 59-91.
Movie – 12 Angry Men
Recommended Readings
Maoz, Zeev and Bruce Russett. 1993. Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic
Peace. APSR, 87(3): 624-38
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, James D. Morrow, Randolph M. Siverson, and Alastair Smith.
1999. ―An Institutional Explanation of the Democratic Peace. APSR, 93(4): 791-807
4. Foreign Policy Analysis & Allison’s Models + Humanitarian Intervention
Chapters from Allison and Zelikow’s book.
Bender, Jonathan and Thomas H. Hammond. 1992 ― Rethinking Allison’s Models. 86(3):
301-22
5. Rising Tensions with Iran + Nukes
Kenneth N. Waltz, "Nuclear Myths and Political Realities." American Political Science Review 84,
3 (September 1990): 731-45.
John Mueller, "The Essential Irrelevance of Nuclear Weapons," International Security 13 (Fall 1988):
55-79
Paul K. Huth, "The Extended Deterrent Value of Nuclear Weapons." Journal of Conflict Resolution 34
(June 1990): 270-90.
Carl Kaysen. "Is War Obsolete? A Review Essay." International Security, 14 (Spring 1990): 42-64.
50913 ‫ הפיח‬,‫למרכה רה‬Mount Carmel, Haifa 31905 , Israel Tel: + 972 4 8240766 Fax: + 972 4 8240391
E-mail: overseas@research.haifa.ac.il
‫תטיסרבינוא הפיח‬
‫תיב רפסה ידימלתל וח"ל‬
UNIVERSITY OF HAIFA
INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL
Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed. New
York: W.W. Norton, 2002.
6.
Conditions for mediation success
Case: Camp David accords
Questions to think about: What constitutes mediation success? Was Camp David a success? What
about Haig’s mediation activities over the Falkland-Malvinas islands? What accounts for the lack of
successful mediation in Cyprus? What unanswered questions about mediation do these examples
raise for you?
William Quandt, 1986, “Camp David and Peacemaking in the Middle East”, Political Science
Quarterly 101(3): 357-77
Shibley Telhami, 1999, “From Camp David to Wye: Changing Assumptions in Arab-Israeli
Negotiations”, Middle East Journal 53(3): 379-92
7. Mediated national integration after protracted civil conflict
Questions to think about: Who were the main conflicting parties? When did the conflict begin?
What major issues were at stake? When did the mediation occur? Who were the principle
mediators? What form(s) did the mediation activity take? Were there any key turning points in the
mediation process? Was the mediation “successful”? By what criteria? How do various authors
explain the success or failure of the mediation activities? What role, if any, did international law
play? What role, if any, did mediation play in the implementation of the mediated agreement? What
hypotheses about mediation does this case suggest? Are there any general lessons or insights you
can gain from this case?
Case: Cyprus
Sisk, T. D. (2002). Power sharing and international mediation in ethnic conflict (ch.3: Democracy
and its alternatives in deeply divided societies). Washington, DC: U.S. Institute of Peace Press.
Ker-Lindsay, James. 2011. The Cyprus Problem: What Everyone Needs to Know. UK: Oxford UP
8. When to Mediate?
Waiting for the parties to ask for mediation or actively seeking their consent. Preventive
Diplomacy and its application. The ripeness factor. Windows of opportunity.
Zartman, I. William 2001. The Timing of Peace Initiatives: Hurting Stalemates and Ripe Moments,
The Global Review of Ethnopolitics 1(1): 8-18.
Kleiboer, Marieke 1994. Review: Ripeness of Conflict: A Fruitful Notion?, Journal of Peace
Research 31(1): pp. 109-116 .
50913 ‫ הפיח‬,‫למרכה רה‬Mount Carmel, Haifa 31905 , Israel Tel: + 972 4 8240766 Fax: + 972 4 8240391
E-mail: overseas@research.haifa.ac.il
‫תטיסרבינוא הפיח‬
‫תיב רפסה ידימלתל וח"ל‬
UNIVERSITY OF HAIFA
INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL
9. Deadlocks in International Negotiation + Negotiations with Terrorists
Readings – Chapter 8, Introduction and Conclusion from Amrita Narlikar (ed), 2010, Deadlocks in
Multilateral Negotiations: Causes and Consequences, Cambridge UP
Reading chapters from Zartman + Faure (eds), 2011, Engaging Extremists: Trade Offs, Timing,
and Diplomacy USIP Press
10. South China Sea (Power Transition Theory) + Interstate War with Iraq
(Regime Change and Sanctions)
Jack S. Levy, “Power Transition Theory and the Rise of China.” In Robert S. Ross and Zhu Feng, eds.,
China's Ascent: Power, Security, and the Future of International Politics. Ithaca, New York: Cornell
University Press, 2008. Pp. 11-33.
Jacek Kugler and Douglas Lemke, "The Power Transition Research Program: Assessing Theoretical and
Empirical Advances." In Manus I. Midlarsky, ed., The Handbook of War Studies II. Ann Arbor, MI:
University of Michigan Press, 2000. Pp. 129-63.
Jon M. DiCicco and Jack S. Levy, "Power Shifts and Problem Shifts: The Evolution of the Power
Transition Research Program." Journal of Conflict Resolution 42,4 (December 1999): 675-704.
Richard Ned Lebow and Benjamin Valentino, "Lost in Transition: A Critical Analysis of Power
Transition Theory. International Relations 23, 3 (2009): 389-410.
11 + 12 Simulation
50913 ‫ הפיח‬,‫למרכה רה‬Mount Carmel, Haifa 31905 , Israel Tel: + 972 4 8240766 Fax: + 972 4 8240391
E-mail: overseas@research.haifa.ac.il
‫תטיסרבינוא הפיח‬
‫תיב רפסה ידימלתל וח"ל‬
UNIVERSITY OF HAIFA
INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL
50913 ‫ הפיח‬,‫למרכה רה‬Mount Carmel, Haifa 31905 , Israel Tel: + 972 4 8240766 Fax: + 972 4 8240391
E-mail: overseas@research.haifa.ac.il