Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
LOAD FORECAST
Introduction:
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited (BESCOM) had completed its 13 years
of experience in the area of Distribution Business in the State of Karnataka. Presently,
BESCOM area of operation includes 8 districts of Karnataka. Viz., Bangalore Urban,
Bangalore Rural, Ramanagaram, Chikkaballapur, Kolar, Tumkur, Davangare and
Chitradurga.
The Commission has issued guidelines for preparation of Load Forecast, Power
Procurement Plan & Power Procurement procedure through regulations:
 KERC (Conditions of License for ESCOMs) Regulations, 2004 dated 28.0.2004
 KERC (Load Forecast) Regulations, 2009 dated 02.04.2009
As per the Technical Conditions prescribed by the Commission under Chapter
III of the first regulation,
The Licensee shall on an annual basis:
(a) forecast the demand for electricity within the Area of Supply in each of the next
succeeding 10 years;
(b) prepare and submit such forecasts to the Commission in accordance with the
guidelines issued by the Commission from time to time; and
(c) Co-operate with the STU in the preparation of electricity demand forecasts for
the state of Karnataka.
The Commission vide above Load Forecast regulations has directed the Distribution
Licensees to follow the Forecast methodology adopted by CEA from time to time, so
as to have a consistent methodology. Further, it is also stated that the forecast as per
the latest available EPS (Electric Power Survey of India), under fulfillment of CEA’s
obligation under Section 73(a) of Electricity Act, 2003 would be the reference point.
Page 1
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
The latest available CEA forecast is 18th EPS.
Energy /Demand requirement of BESCOM constitutes approximately 50% of the
Karnataka State Energy/Demand requirement. Bangalore urban alone constitutes
50% of Energy/Demand requirement of BESCOM. Hence, Bangalore Urban alone
constitutes 25% of the total State Energy /Demand requirement.
BESCOM in its Tariff filing for the 3rd control period i.e., FY-14 to FY-16, had done the
energy forecast up to 2020 under different scenarios.
M/s. Power Research and Development Consultants (PRDC), Bangalore prepared the
Load forest on behalf of Karnataka Power Transmission Corporation Limited
(KPTCL)
M/s. Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSSTP), Bangalore prepared
“Karnataka’s Power Sector Roadmap for 2021-22” and submitted to Karnataka
Electricity Regulatory Commission (KERC) during June 2013.
Since, 4th Control period lies between FY-17 to FY-19, within the projections already
projected by BESCOM, KPTCL as well as KERC.
Exhaustive studies are already done for the period from FY-13 to FY-2022 during FY12 and FY-13. Actuals of FY-13 to FY-15 figures are on hand, it is felt that based on
the actuals necessary corrections to the future years projections may be appropriate
rather than preparing another estimations. Actuals with respect to Projection under
different methods are verified and necessary corrections are proposed for the next
control period i.e., FY-17 to FY-19.
The actuals are compared to the following projection scenarios and necessary
corrections are proposed.
1. Per capita consumption
2. 18th draft EPS
Page 2
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
3.
4.
5.
6.
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
Circle wise energy sales
Karnataka Road Map 2021-22 by M/s CSSTP
Areal Load Dispatch Centre based projections
Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
1. Estimation on Per capita electricity consumption:
Earlier, during the projections for the 3rd control period ie., FY-14 to FY-16,
BESCOM had projected the per capita consumption for the year from
FY-12 to FY-20 and was filed before KERC on 13.12.2012.
Per capita consumption projected for the period FY-12 to FY-15 is validated with
actual. The increase in per capita is as under:
Projected:
Sl.
No
1
2
3
4
5
6
Particulars
2012
2013
2014
2015
Total Population
Projected per capita
Projected increase in %
Projected Energy in Mu
Projected energy requirement on day basis
Peak demand Projected (MW)
21282235
1193
7.40%
26358
72
3779
21822223
1281
7.38%
28230
77
4047
22362212
1376
7.42%
31049
85
4452
22902201
1478
7.41%
34120
93
4892
2014
2015
Actuals:
Sl.
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Particulars
2012
2013
Expected Population for the period
21282235 21822223 22362212 22902201
Actual energy in Mu
25657.71 27834.39 27928.24
29413
Wheeling energy
43.28
484.63
674.38
1100
Total = (2+3)
25700.99 28319.02 28602.62
30513
Avg. energy in Mu (Avg.) on day basis
=(4/no. of days in a year)
70.22
77.59
78.36
83.60
Avg. Demand (Avg.) =(5/24hrs*1000)
2925.89
3232.76
3265.14
3483.22
Actual Peak in MW recorded
3953
4144
4321
4571
Load Factor in % =(6/7*100)
74
78
76
76
Actual per capita =(4/1*10^6) in
kWh
1207.63
1297.71
1279.06
1332.32
Actual growth rate in per capita
(1111 unitsfor FY11)
8.70%
7.46%
-1.44%
4.16%
Page 3
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
It can be seen from the above two tables, per capita projected is at the rate of 7.4%
whereas actual average growth rate works out 4.72%. Consequently, the peak
demand has also reduced. It is significant to note that, the peak demand was
estimated by considering the average demand at 80 % of peak demand, but as per
actual, the average demand is 76% of the peak demand.
By considering the above correction factors, the revised projections of energy up to
2021 are as follows.
Sl
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Particulars
Expected Population
for the period
Revised per capita
Consumption
(Projections)
Projected increase
in %
Revised energy in
Mu (Projections)
(1*2/10^6)
Revised energy in
Mu (Avg.) on day
basis
(Projections)(4/no.
of days in a year)
Revised Avg.
Demand
(Projections)(5/24h
rs*1000)
Revised peak
Demand
(Projections)
(6/76%)
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
22902201
23442190
23982178
24522167
25062156
25602145
26152591
1332.32
1395.20
1461.06
1530.02
1602.24
1677.86
1757.06
4.16
4.72
4.72
4.72
4.72
4.72
4.72
30513
32706.61
35039.31
37519.36
40155.46
42956.83
45951.55
83.60
89.36
96.00
102.79
110.01
117.37
125.55
3483.22
3723.43
3999.92
4283.03
4583.96
4890.35
5231.28
4583.18
4899.25
5263.05
5635.57
6031.52
6434.67
6883.26
Scenario 2: Energy Projection based on 18th Energy Power Survey (EPS)
Report
Earlier on 13.12.2012, BESCOM had projected the Sales as per 18the Energy Power
Survey (EPS) Report.
Page 4
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
Earlier Projections are as under:
In MU
Year
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2019-21
Projected under draft
18th EPS
47770
52170
56780
61290
66088
70692
75393
80459
85952
Projected BESCOM Sales at
46.14% of EPS
22041
24071
26198
28279
30493
32617
34786
37124
39658
Based on the above, energy input requirement to BESCOM was projected as follows:
Year
Projected
under draft
18th EPS
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
47770
52170
56780
61290
66088
70692
75393
80459
85952
Projected
BESCOM
Sales at
46.14% of
EPS
22041
24071
26198
28279
30493
32617
34786
37124
39658
Projected
Dist. Loss in
percentage
Energy
at IF
Points
Projected
Energy at
Trans. Loss
Gen.
in percentage points
14
13.8
13.6
13.4
13.2
13
12.8
12.6
12.4
25629
27925
30322
32655
35130
37491
39893
42476
45272
3.96
3.94
3.92
3.9
3.88
3.86
3.84
3.82
3.8
26686
29070
31559
33980
36548
38996
41486
44163
47060
Page 5
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
Deviation in projections based on actuals
Year
1
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
Projected
sales in
MU for
State
under 18th
EPS
2
47770
52170
56780
61290
Actual
sales in
MU for
State
3
45256
46856
*50096
*51168
Projected sales
in MU for
BESCOM under
18th EPS
BESCOM
Actual in
MU
4
22041
24071
26198
28279
Deviations
to
projections
(BESCOM
level)
5
22796
23066
**24083
*25342
6
755
-1005
-2115
-2937
Percentage of
achievement
as against
projections
7
103.42
95.82
91.93
89.61
*Approved by KERC for FY-16 in its tariff Order dated 02.03.2015.
**Provisional
BESCOM had projected its Sales at 46.14% on 18th EPS. However, BESCOM actual
sales on 18th EPS works out to 42.41%. The deviation from the projected sales at
column 4 of the above table works out to 91.93%. This correction factor is considered
for future projections as shown in the table below:
Year
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
Projected sales
in MU for State
under 18th EPS
61290
66088
70692
75393
80459
85952
Projected BESCOM
Sales @46.14% on
18th EPS
28279
30493
32617
34786
37124
39658
Revised
Projected
sales
25997.07
28032.22
29985.07
31979.07
34127.89
36457.83
% Correction on
projected
BESCOM Sales
@46.14% on
18th EPS
91.93
91.93
91.93
91.93
91.93
91.93
For the revised projected sales, distribution and transmission losses (% losses are
retained as per the earlier projections) are added to estimate the revised energy at
Page 6
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
generation point. The revised average load in MW is calculated at 73.46% of peak load
in MW, the details are depicted in the table below:
Year
Projected sales
Projected Dist. Loss
in percentage
Energy at IF Points
Projected Trans.
Loss in percentage
Energy at Gen.
points
Avg. Energy
requirement per day
( in MU)
Avg .Load
requirement ( in
MW)
Projected peak load
(in MW)
requirement
@73.46%
2014-15*
24083
2015-16
25997.1
2016-17
28032.2
2017-18
29985.1
2018-19
31979.1
2019-20
34127.9
2020-21
36457.8
14.77
13.4
13.2
13
12.8
12.6
12.4
28257
30019.7
32295.2
34465.6
36673.2
39047.9
41618.5
3.93
3.9
3.88
3.86
3.84
3.82
3.8
29413
31238
33598.8
35849.4
38137.7
40598.8
43262.5
80.6
85.3
92.1
98.2
104.5
110.9
118.5
3357.6
3556.2
3835.5
4092.4
4353.6
4621.9
4938.6
4570.9
4841.1
5221.2
5570.9
5926.5
6291.7
6722.9
 Provisional figures
Comparison of 18th EPS – mega cities, Bangalore with BESCOM’s
Bangalore projection.
18th EPS- Mega Cities projections- Bangalore City.
Category
Domestic
Commercial & Misc.
Public Lighting
Public Water works
Irrigation
Industries LT
Industries HT
Railway traction
Total consumption in MU
Energy Requirement in MU
Peak Load in MW
FY-2016 FY-2017 FY-2018 FY-2019 FY-2020 FY-2021
4602
4872
5174
5468
5778
6103
4624
4955
5293
5629
5985
6364
231
242
253
263
274
285
525
551
577
602
630
656
34
33
31
29
27
26
1007
1078
1148
1216
1289
1367
2531
2601
2659
2715
2772
2832
120
134
150
167
336
378
13674
14466
15285
16089
17091
18011
15377
16260
17165
18050
19155
20163
2645
2805
2970
3133
3335
3521
Page 7
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
3. BESCOM’s projections considering Bangalore circle’s wise growth
rate
Category
LT-Domestic
LT-Commercial
Agri
LT-Industrial
Water Supply
Street light
Temporary
HT-Water Supply
HT-Industrial
HT-Comml
Hosp/Edu
Lift Irri.
HT-Residential
Temporary
Total
Distribution Loss
Energy at IF point
Transmission Loss
Energy at gen point
Per day consumption in MU
Average Load in MW
Peak Load in MW
FY-2016
FY-2017 FY-2018 FY-2019
FY-2020
4753.1
5060.9
5389.0
5738.7
6111.4
1385.4
1463.4
1546.5
1635.0
1729.3
81.1
83.1
85.4
87.9
90.7
780.2
807.5
836.4
867.1
899.7
116.9
117.1
117.3
117.5
117.8
286.6
295.2
304.3
313.9
323.9
167.0
191.6
220.0
253.0
291.3
346.2
377.6
412.1
450.1
492.0
2234.8
2234.8
2234.8
2234.8
2234.8
2597.5
2668.7
2743.6
2822.6
2905.9
168.3
183.7
200.5
218.9
239.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
139.3
172.7
219.1
283.1
371.8
57.3
69.7
84.8
103.1
125.6
13113.5 13725.9 14393.7 15125.7 15933.0
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.5
6.4
14070.3 14711.6 15410.9 16177.2 17022.5
3.86
3.88
3.86
3.84
3.82
14635.2 15305.4 16029.6 16823.3 17698.5
40.0
41.9
43.9
46.1
48.4
1666
1747
1830
1920
2015
2252
2361
2473
2595
2723
FY-2021
6508.7
1829.8
93.8
934.4
118.0
334.4
336.0
538.1
2234.8
2993.7
260.9
0.0
494.4
152.8
16829.7
6.3
17961.3
3.8
18670.8
51.2
2131
2880
Scenario 3: Energy Forecast based on circle wise sales growth.
BESCOM had projected the Circle wise energy requirements up to 2020 in its earlier
load forecast.
Earlier projections are as follows:
Sl.
No
.
1
2
3
4
Particulars
Bangalore-South
Bangalore North
Bangalore-Rural
Kolar
Prov.
2012
7365
3850
3710
2203
Growt
h Rate
(%)
12.00
3.00
12.00
3.00
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
8249
3966
4155
2269
9239
4084
4654
2337
10347
4207
5212
2407
11589
4333
5838
2479
12980
4463
6538
2554
14537
4597
7323
2630
16282
4735
8202
2709
18235
4877
9186
2791
Page 8
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
5
6
7
8
9
10
Tumkur
Davenagere
2018
1884
Total
21030
2058
1941
2263
7
14.00
2632
3
3.96
2740
8
6.82
%
2100
1999
2441
2
13.80
2832
1
3.94
2948
2
7.57
%
2142
2059
7.76%
7.96%
8.15%
8.33%
8.51%
8.69%
2929
3129
3395
3647
3925
4232
4571
4946
5355
3661
3911
4243
4558
4906
5290
5714
6183
6694
Distribution loss 14.46
In put at IF
24584
Tr. Loss
Energy
requirement.
4.19
25658
Growth rate
11
12
MW
requirement
Peak load
requirement @
LF of 80% (MW)
2.00
3.00
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
2184
2120
2228
2184
2273
2250
2318
2317
2364
2387
26374 28544 30947 33610 36563 39840
13.60
13.40
13.20
13.00
12.80
12.60
30526 32961 35653 38632 41930 45584
3.92
3.9
3.88
3.86
3.84
3.82
31771 34299 37093 40183 43604 47394
At present, BESCOM has 3 Zones, one exclusively catering to Metropolitan Bangalore
city and other two are rural zones. There are 4 circles under Bangalore zone, 3 circles
in Bangalore Rural Area zone and 2 circles in Chitradurga zone. The details are
tabulated below:
Zone
Bangalore Metro Politian Zone (BMAZ)
Bangalore Rural Area Zone (BRAZ)
Chitradurga Area Zone (CTZ)
Circles
Bangalore –North
Bangalore- South
Bangalore-East
Bangalore-West
Bangalore-Rural
Kolar
Ramanagara
Tumkur
Davenagere.
The diagram illustrates the circle wise energy consumption over the period from FY
01 to FY 11.
Page 9
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
Percentage energy consumption
9%
9%
9%
10%
10%
10%
11%
12%
9%
12%
14%
15%14%
11%
10%
11%8%
15%13%
21%
21%
BLR-North
23%
22%
21%
24%
21%
23%
BLR-South
BLR-Rural
TKR
10% 13%
10%11% 12%
17%
17%
23%23%
17%
17%
KLR
26%26%
28%
17%
16%
DVG
31% 32%
33%
17%16%
Energy consumption circle wise for FY-13 and FY-14 is as under:
9%
11%
BNC
DVG
9%
10%
BNC
11%
BSC
TKR
10%
9%
BEC
BSC
20%
KLR
10%
19%
BWc
BRC
KLR
TKR
BRC
19%
19%
BWc
6%
BEC
15%
DVG
15%
8%
Page 10
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
Comparing both graphs, it is evident, Bangalore Rural circle, which consists of
Bangalore periphery ie., Chandapura Division, Nelamangala, Yelahanka , Ramanagara
division is growing faster. These divisions grab the growth rate of 1% from Bangalore
City (Bangalore Metropolitan Zone) and 1% from Kolar. The rest Circles maintain the
same level of consumption.
Two new circles i.e Bangalore East and Bangalore West are created duly bifurcating
the existing Bangalore North and Bangalore South circles in BMAZ area. Ramanagara
circle is chalked out of existing Bangalore Rural circle. Due to creation of new circles
the percentage growth rate seems to be very unrealistic. Hence, for the purpose of
projections 2year CAGR of the respective circles are considered. In case of negative 2
year CAGR correction factor of one year growth rate is considered. Further, if one year
growth is also negative the FY15 figures are retained for the projected years.
Circle wise tariff wise sales projections are shown in the below tables:
Bangalore North Circle.
Category
BJ/KJ
FY13
FY14
FY15
CAGR 2yrs
0
0
0
Domestic
Commerci
al
861.22
898.26
949.22
5%
204.76
210.74
227.25
IP sets
LT
Industries
Water
Supply
Public
lighting
Temporar
y Supply
Water
Supply
HT
Industrial.
Commerci
al
42.95
55.43
223.00
Correction
factor
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
0
0
0
0
0
0
5%
996.68
1046.5
1098.8
1153.7
1211.4
1272.0
5%
5%
239.29
251.97
265.33
279.39
294.20
309.79
43.62
1%
1%
43.97
44.33
44.68
45.04
45.40
45.76
213.32
217.54
-1%
2%
221.89
226.33
230.85
235.47
240.18
244.98
48.35
40.15
39.60
-9%
0%
39.60
39.60
39.60
39.60
39.60
39.60
59.71
58.75
65.17
4%
5%
68.11
71.17
74.38
77.72
81.22
84.87
19.36
20.74
27.63
19%
19%
32.99
39.38
47.03
56.15
67.04
80.05
6.48
6.48
6.93
3%
3%
7.16
7.41
7.66
7.92
8.19
8.46
867.37
830.11
754.17
-7%
0%
754.17
754.17
754.17
754.17
754.17
754.17
217.77
208.01
171.90
-5%
0%
171.90
171.90
171.90
171.90
171.90
171.90
Page 11
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
Hospitals
& Educ
Lift Irrgtn
Socities
Residentia
l Apart.
Temporar
y Supply
TOTAL (
LT + HT )
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
17.83
26.67
9%
29.07
31.68
34.53
37.64
41.03
44.72
0.18
0.00
0.00
0%
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
29.03
29.32
28.94
0%
0%
28.94
28.94
28.94
28.94
28.94
28.94
6.16
8.26
8.50
17%
18%
9.99
11.74
13.79
16.20
19.04
22.37
2586.32
2597.41
2567.1
2643.7
2775.9
2914.7
3060.4
3213.5
3374.1
Bangalore South Circle:
Category
BJ/KJ
2013
2014
2015
CAGR
- 2yrs
0
0
0
Domestic
1452.3
1540.1
1665.8
7%
Commercial
410.84
434.03
478.58
IPSets
Correc
tion
factor
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
0
0
0
0
0
0
7%
1784.0
1910.6
2046.1
2191.3
2346.8
2513.3
8%
8%
516.52
557.48
601.69
649.39
700.89
756.46
37.23
9.83
0.13
-94%
0%
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
LT Industires
142.67
138.73
138.94
-1%
0%
139.14
139.34
139.54
139.74
139.94
140.15
Water Supply
38.57
32.26
28.93
-13%
0%
28.93
28.93
28.93
28.93
28.93
28.93
Public lighting
Temporary
Supply
88.08
90.08
81.16
-4%
0%
81.16
81.16
81.16
81.16
81.16
81.16
45.52
46.91
57.71
13%
13%
64.97
73.16
82.37
92.74
104.42
117.57
Water Supply
211.77
13.60
12.99
-75%
0%
12.99
12.99
12.99
12.99
12.99
12.99
HT Industrial
834.02
848.11
749.68
-5%
0%
749.68
749.68
749.68
749.68
749.68
749.68
Commercial
Hospitals &
Educ
Lift Irrgtn
Socities
Residential
Apart.
Temporary
Supply
TOTAL ( LT +
HT )
1297.1
1185.5
1249.5
-2%
5%
1317.0
1388.1
1463.1
1542.1
1625.3
1713.1
32.58
82.00
9%
89.63
97.98
107.10
117.08
127.98
139.90
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
47.70
32.67
19.95
-35%
0
19.95
19.95
19.95
19.95
19.95
19.95
13.65
29.61
20.54
23%
23%
25.19
30.91
37.91
46.51
57.05
69.98
4619.6
4434.0
4585.9
4829.3
5090.4
5370.7
5671.7
5995.3
6343.4
Page 12
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
Bangalore East Circle:
Category
2013
BJ/KJ
2014
CAGR 2yrs
2015
0.00
0.00
0.00
Domestic
974.43
1017.9
1107.9
6.6%
Commercial
402.64
404.71
424.49
9.01
10.27
LT Industires
95.68
Water Supply
Correc
tion
factor
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.63%
1181.3
1259.6
1343.1
1432.2
1527.1
1628.4
2.7%
2.68%
435.86
447.54
459.52
471.83
484.47
497.44
11.51
13.0%
13.0%
13.01
14.71
16.62
18.79
21.24
24.01
96.37
95.55
-0.1%
0
95.55
95.55
95.55
95.55
95.55
95.55
31.58
29.96
21.35
-17.8%
0
21.35
21.35
21.35
21.35
21.35
21.35
Public lighting
66.50
51.41
74.88
6.1%
6.11%
79.45
84.31
89.47
94.94
100.74
106.90
Temporary
33.13
30.02
40.47
10.5%
10.5%
44.73
49.43
54.64
60.39
66.74
73.77
Water Supply
13.14
17.27
18.18
17.6%
17.6%
21.38
25.14
29.56
34.76
40.88
48.07
HT Industrial.
564.37
656.10
548.22
-1.4%
0
548.22
548.22
548.22
548.22
548.22
548.22
Commercial
Hospitals &
Educ
1109.3
1164.3
1013.9
-4.4%
0
1013.9
1013.9
1013.9
1013.9
1013.9
1013.9
11.27
22.25
9%
24.25
26.44
28.82
31.41
34.24
37.32
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
32.37
35.81
62.14
38.5%
86.09
119.28
165.26
228.96
317.22
439.50
0.00
1.37
13.92
23%
17.07
20.94
25.69
31.51
38.66
47.42
3332.1
3526.8
3454.7
3582.2
3726.4
3891.7
4083.8
4310.3
4581.8
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
IPSets
Lift Irrgtn Soc
Residential
Apart.
Temporary
TOTAL ( LT +
HT )
38.5%
Bangalore West Circle:
Category
BJ/KJ
2013
2014
2015
CAGR 2yrs
Correc
tion
factor
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Domestic
650.85
703.14
741.22
6.7%
6.7%
791.00
844.13
900.83
961.33
1025.9
1094.8
Commercial
160.06
172.82
181.75
6.6%
6.6%
193.68
206.39
219.93
234.36
249.74
266.13
9.04
31.64
23.94
62.7%
23.94
23.94
23.94
23.94
23.94
23.94
LT Industries
264.29
293.00
302.52
7.0%
7.0%
323.66
346.28
370.47
396.36
424.06
453.69
Water Supply
26.32
26.47
26.75
0.8%
0.8%
26.97
27.19
27.42
27.64
27.87
28.10
Public lighting
55.82
56.01
57.19
1.2%
1.2%
57.89
58.59
59.31
60.03
60.76
61.50
Temporary
13.55
14.23
20.02
21.6%
21.6%
24.34
29.58
35.96
43.71
53.13
64.59
Water Supply
15.25
256.48
279.54
328%
9.0%
304.67
332.07
361.93
394.47
429.94
468.60
HT Industrial.
193.81
195.99
182.70
-2.9%
0
182.70
182.70
182.70
182.70
182.70
182.70
97.12
112.08
94.70
-1.3%
0
94.70
94.70
94.70
94.70
94.70
94.70
2.87
23.21
9%
25.30
27.58
30.06
32.76
35.71
38.93
IPSets
Commercial
Hospitals &
Educ
Page 13
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
Lift Irrgtn
Residential
Apart.
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.05
3.71
3.98
Temporary
TOTAL ( LT +
HT )
0.37
3.45
4.17
1487.5
1871.8
1941.6
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
94.4%
7.2%
4.27
4.57
4.90
5.26
5.64
6.04
237%
21.0%
5.04
6.10
7.38
8.92
10.80
13.06
2058.1
2183.8
2319.5
2466.2
2624.8
2796.7
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
Bangalore Rural Circle:
Category
2013
BJ/KJ
2014
2015
CAGR 2yrs
Correc
tion
factor
7.65
9.30
9.76
12.9%
1.9%
9.94
10.13
10.32
10.52
10.72
10.92
167.49
191.47
223.65
15.6%
15.6%
258.43
298.63
345.08
398.76
460.79
532.46
51.78
59.60
69.74
16.1%
16.1%
80.93
93.92
109.00
126.49
146.79
170.35
IPSets
811.38
736.65
755.23
-3.5%
3%
774.29
793.82
813.85
834.38
855.43
877.01
LT Industires
104.98
113.66
117.61
5.8%
5.8%
124.48
131.76
139.46
147.61
156.24
165.37
Water Supply
38.64
39.86
39.86
1.6%
1.6%
40.49
41.13
41.77
42.43
43.10
43.78
Public lighting
14.83
15.91
11.99
-10.1%
0
11.99
11.99
11.99
11.99
11.99
11.99
8.00
11.64
9.65
9.9%
9.9%
10.60
11.65
12.80
14.06
15.44
16.97
Water Supply
12.28
2.29
2.22
-57.5%
0
2.22
2.22
2.22
2.22
2.22
2.22
HT Industrial.
590.73
678.42
605.63
1.3%
1.3%
613.23
620.91
628.69
636.58
644.55
652.63
Commercial
Hospitals &
Educ
95.21
108.20
129.98
16.8%
17%
151.86
177.43
207.30
242.20
282.98
330.62
0.07
1.10
9%
1.20
1.31
1.43
1.55
1.69
1.85
Lift Irrgtn
Residential
Apart.
0.59
0.84
0.87
21.5%
21.5%
1.05
1.28
1.56
1.89
2.30
2.79
1.56
1.44
2.34
22.4%
22.4%
2.86
3.50
4.29
5.25
6.42
7.86
Temporary
TOTAL ( LT +
HT )
0.00
2.42
7.83
21.0%
9.47
11.46
13.86
16.77
20.28
24.53
1905.1
1971.7
1987.4
2093.0
2211.1
2343.6
2492.7
2660.9
2851.3
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
Domestic
Commercial
Temporary
Ramanagara Circle:
2013
2014
2015
CAGR 2yrs
Correc
tion
factor
11.32
12.90
13.95
11.0%
1.9%
14.21
14.48
14.76
15.03
15.32
15.61
215.67
207.39
234.71
4.3%
4.3%
244.84
255.42
266.45
277.96
289.97
302.50
56.19
59.21
68.15
10.1%
10.1%
75.05
82.66
91.03
100.25
110.40
121.59
IPSets
407.93
370.00
392.46
-1.9%
6.1%
416.28
441.55
468.35
496.78
526.94
558.92
LT Industires
146.30
103.90
103.50
-15.9%
0
103.50
103.50
103.50
103.50
103.50
103.50
Category
BJ/KJ
Domestic
Commercial
Page 14
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
Water Supply
44.12
31.29
29.76
-17.9%
Public lighting
23.40
19.56
11.57
Temporary
11.14
14.10
16.36
Water Supply
214.67
257.59
HT Industrial.
1124.4
Commercial
Hospitals &
Educ
52.92
Lift Irrgtn
Residential
Apart.
Temporary
TOTAL ( LT +
HT )
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
0
29.76
29.76
29.76
29.76
29.76
29.76
-29.7%
0
11.57
11.57
11.57
11.57
11.57
11.57
21.2%
21.2%
19.82
24.02
29.11
35.27
42.74
51.79
275.94
13.4%
13.4%
312.85
354.70
402.15
455.95
516.94
586.08
1198.6
1016.5
-4.9%
0
1016.5
1016.5
1016.5
1016.5
1016.5
1016.5
48.06
44.72
-8.1%
0
44.72
44.72
44.72
44.72
44.72
44.72
13.40
12.97
0
12.97
12.97
12.97
12.97
12.97
12.97
9.28
8.15
15.01
27.2%
27.2%
19.09
24.29
30.89
39.29
49.97
63.55
3.02
3.31
3.44
6.8%
6.8%
3.68
3.93
4.20
4.48
4.78
5.11
0.00
1.75
3.36
0.0%
3.36
3.36
3.36
3.36
3.36
3.36
2320.4
2349.2
2242.4
2328.2
2423.4
2529.3
2647.4
2779.4
2927.5
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
Kolar Circle:
2013
2014
2015
CAGR 2yrs
Correc
tion
factor
BJ/KJ
25.67
28.32
29.71
7.6%
1.9%
30.27
30.84
31.43
32.02
32.62
33.24
Domestic
189.6
218.0
221.7
8.1%
8.1%
239.77
259.27
280.36
303.17
327.83
354.50
Commercial
50.66
55.50
57.42
6.5%
6.5%
61.14
65.09
69.31
73.79
78.56
83.65
IPSets
1494
1359
1612
3.9%
3.9%
1675.1
1740.0
1807.4
1877.4
1950.2
2025.7
LT Industires
49.08
48.21
52.42
3.3%
3.3%
54.17
55.98
57.86
59.79
61.79
63.85
Water Supply
115.3
134.1
109.6
-2.5%
0
109.61
109.61
109.61
109.61
109.61
109.61
Public lighting
33.09
35.68
31.78
-2.0%
0
31.78
31.78
31.78
31.78
31.78
31.78
Temporary
2.29
2.67
3.34
20.7%
21%
4.03
4.86
5.87
7.08
8.55
10.32
Water Supply
3.28
3.37
2.82
-7.4%
0
2.82
2.82
2.82
2.82
2.82
2.82
HT Industrial.
232.3
250.4
330.5
19.3%
10.0%
363.64
400.01
440.01
484.01
532.41
585.65
Commercial
Hospitals &
Educ
8.85
5.94
10.74
10.2%
10.2%
11.83
13.03
14.35
15.81
17.42
19.19
2.05
2.28
11.5%
2.55
2.84
3.17
3.53
3.94
4.39
Lift Irrgtn
Residential
Apart.
Temporary
Supply
TOTAL ( LT +
HT )
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.81
0.87
1.95
3.8%
2.03
2.10
2.18
2.26
2.35
2.44
0
0.54
0.54
0.54
0.54
0.54
0.54
2589.3
2718.8
2856.7
3003.6
3160.4
3327.7
Category
0.00
2206
0.54
2144
2467
3.8%
Page 15
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
Tumkur Circle:
CAGR 2yrs
Corre
ction
factor
24.28
-2.2%
2%
24.74
25.21
25.69
26.17
26.67
27.17
204.53
225.54
9.1%
9.1%
246.17
268.69
293.27
320.09
349.37
381.32
51.67
55.40
60.78
8.5%
8.5%
65.93
71.51
77.56
84.12
91.24
98.96
1533.6
1409.5
1722.4
6.0%
4.0%
1791.3
1862.9
1937.4
2014.9
2095.5
2179.3
LT Industires
48.33
50.46
47.24
-1.1%
0
47.24
47.24
47.24
47.24
47.24
47.24
Water Supply
63.47
72.61
68.91
4.2%
4.2%
71.80
74.81
77.95
81.22
84.63
88.19
Public lighting
25.47
27.48
22.29
-6.5%
0
22.29
22.29
22.29
22.29
22.29
22.29
Category
BJ/KJ
Domestic
Commercial
IPSets
Temporary
2013
2014
2015
25.39
22.67
189.32
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
2.62
2.78
3.05
7.8%
7.8%
3.29
3.55
3.82
4.12
4.45
4.80
Water Supply
14.77
15.64
15.45
2.3%
2.3%
15.79
16.15
16.51
16.88
17.26
17.65
HT Industrial.
264.46
301.78
308.60
8.0%
8.0%
333.36
360.10
388.99
420.20
453.91
490.33
12.17
12.50
9.40
-12.1%
17%
11.03
12.94
15.19
17.82
20.90
24.53
0.23
5.54
Commercial
Hospitals &
Educ
Lift Irrgtn
Residential
Apart.
Temporary
Supply
TOTAL ( LT +
HT )
1.43
0.01
0.00
100.0
%
1.71
1.60
1.19
-16.6%
0.04
0.24
2177.3
2514.9
2234.5
17%
6.50
7.62
8.95
10.49
12.31
14.45
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.8%
1.24
1.28
1.33
1.38
1.44
1.49
0
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
2640.9
2774.5
2916.4
3067.2
3227.5
3398.0
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
Davenagere Circle:
CAGR 2yrs
Correc
tion
factor
57.71
1.9%
1.9%
58.80
59.91
61.04
62.19
63.36
64.56
265.10
298.81
7.5%
7.5%
321.17
345.20
371.04
398.80
428.64
460.71
69.72
70.27
80.65
7.6%
7.6%
86.75
93.30
100.36
107.94
116.10
124.87
1389.4
1263.7
1315.3
-2.7%
4%
1369.0
1424.9
1483.1
1543.7
1606.7
1672.4
LT Industires
49.82
51.79
54.12
4.2%
4.2%
56.41
58.80
61.29
63.88
66.58
69.40
Water Supply
57.78
60.37
70.89
10.8%
10.8%
78.52
86.97
96.32
106.69
118.17
130.89
Public lighting
38.04
39.57
34.29
-5.1%
0
34.29
34.29
34.29
34.29
34.29
34.29
Category
BJ/KJ
Domestic
Commercial
IPSets
Temporary
2013
2014
2015
55.59
50.69
258.66
4.01
4.26
4.45
5.3%
5.3%
4.69
4.94
5.20
5.48
5.77
6.08
Water Supply
31.65
40.20
42.03
15.2%
15.2%
48.44
55.82
64.33
74.14
85.44
98.46
HT Industrial.
Commercial
TOTAL
111.19
107.88
118.99
3.4%
3.4%
123.09
127.34
131.73
136.27
140.97
145.84
18.19
11.05
12.73
-16.4%
1.7%
12.94
13.16
13.38
13.61
13.84
14.07
Page 16
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
Hospitals & Educ
9.48
8.15
#DIV/0!
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
1.7%
8.28
8.42
8.57
8.71
8.86
9.01
Lift Irrgtn
0.01
0.02
0.06
200.1%
0
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
Residential Apart.
1.96
1.01
1.71
-6.5%
69%
2.89
4.88
8.23
13.89
23.45
39.59
Temporary
0.00
0.00
0.14
#DIV/0!
0%
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
2086.11
1975.45
2100.10
2205.56
2318.22
2439.16
2569.84
2712.47
2870.37
TOTAL ( LT + HT )
BESCOM Avg. Energy and Avg. Demand requirement estimated.
Tariff category
LT-1
LT-2(a)
LT-2(b)
LT-3
LT-4(a)
LT-4(b)
LT-4( c )
LT-5
LT-6a(i)WR
LT-6a(ii)SL
LT-7
LT Total
HT-1
HT-2(a)
HT-2(b)
HT-2©
HT-3(a)
HT3 (b)
HT-4
HT-5
HT TOTAL
TOTAL
Distribution loss in %
Energy requirement at
IF point
Transmission loss in %
Energy requirement at
Generation point
Avg. Day wise
consumption in Mu
Avg. day wise demand
in MW
Peak demand
requirement
FY-15
(Prov.)
84
5683
37
1649
5868
5
4
1129
436
390
183
15468
656
4615
2738
184
36
0
126
260
8615
24083
CAGR
4yrs
12.2%
7.6%
6.6%
8.5%
7.0%
-5.9%
4.8%
3.4%
1.7%
2.3%
18.3%
6.9%
8.0%
4.2%
3.5%
115.7%
9.8%
4.5%
5.8%
6.5%
Correc
tion
factor
0%
7.6%
6.6%
8.5%
7.0%
0
4.8%
3.4%
1.7%
2.3%
18.3%
8.0%
1.9%
1.1%
1.1%
0.0%
9.8%
4.5%
0.0%
5.8%
FY-16
FY-17
FY-18
FY-19
FY-20
FY-21
84
6114.8
39.4
1788.3
6280.8
5.3
4.0
1168.0
443.2
399.2
216.1
16543.1
708.4
4702.1
2768.5
186.1
36.0
0.2
131.9
259.6
8792.9
25336.0
13.4
84
6579.5
42.0
1939.6
6722.5
5.3
4.2
1207.9
450.8
408.2
255.5
17699.6
765.1
4790.8
2799.8
188.2
36.0
0.2
137.8
259.6
8977.5
26677.1
13.2
84
7079.4
44.8
2103.7
7195.2
5.3
4.4
1249.3
458.5
417.5
302.2
18944.4
826.3
4881.2
2831.3
190.3
36.0
0.3
143.9
259.6
9169.0
28113.4
13
84
7617.4
47.7
2281.7
7701.1
5.3
4.6
1292.0
466.4
427.0
357.5
20284.8
892.3
4973.3
2863.3
192.5
36.0
0.3
150.4
259.6
9367.7
29652.4
12.8
84
8196.2
50.9
2474.7
8242.7
5.3
4.8
1336.2
474.4
436.6
422.8
21728.8
963.6
5067.1
2895.6
194.7
36.0
0.3
157.1
259.6
9574.0
31302.8
12.6
84
8819.0
54.2
2684.1
8822.3
5.3
5.1
1381.9
482.6
446.6
500.1
23285.2
1040.7
5162.7
2928.3
196.9
36.0
0.3
164.1
259.6
9788.6
33073.8
12.4
29256
3.90
30734
3.88
32314
3.86
34005
3.84
35816
3.82
37755
3.8
30444
31975
33612
35363
37238
39247
83
88
92
97
102
108
3475
3650
3837
4037
4251
4480
4696
4933
5185
5455
5744
6054
Page 17
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
BESCOM had projected 7.97 average growth rate in its earlier filing. But as per actuals
the average growth rate has been reduced to 5.5%.
4. Karnataka Road Map 2021-22 by M/s CSTEP
Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy, (CSTEP), Dr. Rajaramanna
Complex, Rajabhavan Circle, High Grounds, Bangalore has prepared Karnataka’s
Power Sector Roadmap for 2021-22 on behalf of Karnataka Electricity Regulatory
Commission and submitted the same to Hon’ble KERC during July 2013. M/s CSTEP
had also prepared the report based on 4 years CAGR. The report compared the
estimates with the Road map projected by KPTCL and 18th EPS. The projections are
for the whole State. The projected figures are as under:
Projected unrestricted and restricted energy requirement at bus bar
(Million Units)
Year
FY-14
FY-15
FY-16
FY-17
FY-18
FY-19
FY-20
FY-21
FY-22
Projected busbar requirement
(restricted
demand)
63,412
67,355
71,597
76,164
81,081
86,880
93,160
99,965
1,07,342
YoY
growth
rate
4.6%
6.6%
6.6%
6.7%
6.8%
7.5%
7.5%
7.6%
7.6%
Projected bus-bar
requirement
(unrestricted
demand)
66,835
70,778
75,020
79,587
84,504
90,303
96,583
1,03,388
1,10,765
YoY
growth
rate
18th EPS
Projections
4.1%
5.9%
6.0%
6.1%
6.2%
6.9%
7.0%
7.0%
7.1%
62980
68208
73278
78637
83917
89285
95059
101309
108012
Page 18
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
Peak Demand Projections in different scenarios till FY-22 Year
With 9%
CAGR
With 70%
Load Factor
PRDC
Projections
18th EPS
Projections
2014
11035
2015 2016 2017 2018
2019
12028 13111 14291 15577 16979
2020
2021
18507 20173
2022
21988
10899
11542 12234 12979 13781 14727
15751 16860
18063
11317
12776 14107 15539 16956 18235
19501 20831
22209
10198
11123 12036 13010 13964 14945
16005 17159
18403
State is still facing the energy shortage and continued with restricted hours of Supply.
Hence, it is appropriate to consider restricted hours of projections for the next control
period. State actuals for FY-14 and FY-15 is now on hand. For FY-16, Commission
approved energy and peak load attained as under:
Year
State actual Energy in MU
Peak load In MW
FY-14
58495
9223(13.02.2013)
FY-15
60668
9549(26.03.2015)
Actual Year on Year growth rate is reduced to 3.71% as against the projected 6.6%
for FY-15. Recorded State peak load is 72% of the average peak load. Based on these
actual, the State projections are revised. Details are as under.
Year
FY-14
FY-15
FY-16
FY-17
FY-18
FY-19
FY-20
FY-21
Projected bus-bar
requirement (restricted
demand)
63,412
67,355
71,597
76,164
81,081
86,880
93,160
99,965
YoY
growth
rate
4.60%
6.60%
6.60%
6.70%
6.80%
7.50%
7.50%
7.60%
Revised bus-bar
requirements
(restricted demand)
58495
60668
62623
64702
66915
69270
71778
74448
YoY
growth
rate
2.18%
3.71%
3.22%
3.32%
3.42%
3.52%
3.62%
3.72%
Page 19
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
Taking 48% (As noticed in the past records) of the State revised bus-bar requirement
(restricted demand) as BESCOM requirement and considering the transmission loss,
projected energy requirement at generation point is worked out as under.
Year
Revised bus-bar requirements (restricted
demand)
Actual energy drawn by BESCOM at bus bar
Tr. loss
Energy requirement at Gen. Point
Avg. Load requirement in MW
Peak load requirement in MW
FY-17
FY-18
FY-19
FY-20
FY-21
64702 66915 69270 71778 74448
31057 32119 33250 34453 35735
3.88
3.86
3.84
3.82
3.80
32311 33409 34577 35822 37147
3688
3814
3947
4089
4240
5123
5297
5482
5680
5890
Scenario 4: Energy Forecast based on Area Load Despatch Centre details
(ALDC), BESCOM.
BESCOM for the first time is projecting the energy demand based on the details made
available by ALDC. The season wise daily consumption (MU) pattern for the period
from Oct-2012 up to Apr-2015 (last 3 years) are charted. A table depicting the
maximum, minimum and average consumption during the season for each year is also
tabulated.
Summer season: (energy in MU):
Summer 2013
110.0
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
31st
30th
29th
28th
27th
26th
25th
24th
23rd
22nd
21st
20th
19th
18th
17th
16th
15th
14th
13th
12th
11th
9th
10th
8th
7th
6th
5th
4th
3rd
2nd
1st
60.0
May-13
Page 20
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
Summer 2014
110.0
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
24th
25th
26th
27th
28th
29th
30th
31st
26th
27th
28th
29th
30th
31st
23rd
22nd
25th
Apr-14
21st
20th
19th
18th
17th
16th
15th
14th
Mar-14
24th
Feb-14
13th
12th
11th
9th
10th
8th
7th
6th
5th
4th
3rd
2nd
1st
60.0
May-14
Summer 2015
110.0
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
Feb-15
Summer
Max
Min
Avg
Growth
2013
88.07
67.80
81.53
2014
98.59
74.06
88.14
8%
Mar-15
Apr-15
23rd
22nd
21st
20th
19th
18th
17th
16th
15th
14th
13th
12th
11th
9th
10th
8th
7th
6th
5th
4th
3rd
2nd
1st
60.0
May-15
2015
104.12
67.45
90.03
2%
Page 21
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
Rainy Season: (energy in MU):
Rainy 2013
95.0
90.0
85.0
80.0
75.0
70.0
65.0
60.0
55.0
30th
31st
31st
28th
28th
30th
27th
27th
29th
26th
26th
29th
25th
25th
23rd
22nd
24th
Aug-13
21st
20th
19th
18th
17th
16th
15th
14th
July-13
24th
Jun-13
13th
12th
11th
10th
9th
8th
7th
6th
5th
4th
3rd
2nd
1st
50.0
Sep-13
Rainy 2014
95.0
90.0
85.0
80.0
75.0
70.0
65.0
60.0
55.0
Jun-14
Rainy
Max
Min
Avg
Growth
2013
84.72
54.61
71.41
Jul-14
Aug-14
23rd
22nd
21st
20th
19th
18th
17th
16th
15th
14th
13th
12th
11th
10th
9th
8th
7th
6th
5th
4th
3rd
2nd
1st
50.0
Sep-14
2014
92.25
65.63
79.73
8%
Page 22
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
Winter Season: (energy in MU)
Winter 2012
100.0
90.0
80.0
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
31st
30th
29th
28th
27th
26th
25th
24th
23rd
21st
22nd
20th
19th
18th
17th
16th
15th
14th
13th
12th
11th
10th
9th
8th
7th
6th
5th
4th
3rd
2nd
1st
70.0
60.0
50.0
Jan-13
Winter 2013
25th
26th
27th
28th
29th
30th
31st
25th
26th
27th
28th
29th
30th
31st
23rd
22nd
24th
Dec-13
21st
20th
19th
18th
17th
16th
15th
14th
Nov-13
24th
Oct-13
13th
12th
11th
10th
9th
8th
7th
6th
5th
4th
3rd
2nd
1st
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
Jan-14
Winter 2014
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
Oct-14
Winter
Max
Min
Avg
Growth
2012
86.63
46.25
75.31
2013
88.99
59.52
78.75
5%
Nov-14
Dec-14
23rd
22nd
21st
20th
19th
18th
17th
16th
15th
14th
13th
12th
11th
10th
9th
8th
7th
6th
5th
4th
3rd
2nd
1st
50.0
Jan-15
2014
93.47
56.72
79.94
2%
Page 23
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
From the above graphs it can be seen that the consumption pattern during the
summer months are more. The details of energy consumption in MU for the period
from Oct-2012 upto Apr-2015 are available. Based on these details season wise
clustered curves are plotted as shown in the above graphs. From the available data, 3
years of summer terms, 2 years of rainy terms and 3 years of winter terms are plotted.
This data is made use of to project the season wise consumption details for future
years. For summer and winter seasons since 3 year terms are available, CAGR formula
is made use of for projections. For rainy season since 2 year term is available one year
growth rate is assumed for projections. The details are shown in the table below:
Summer
CAGR
Feb13
2310
Mar13
2609
Apr13
2466
May13
2397
Feb14
2497
Mar14
2766
Apr14
2727
MayFeb14
15
2587
2596
Rainy
Jun13
2158
July13
2222
Aug13
2304
Sep13
2028
Jun14
2408
Jul14
2496
Aug14
2397
Sep14
2426
Winter
Oct12
2261
Nov12
2124
Dec12
2380
Jan13
2498
Oct13
2285
Nov13
2298
Dec13
2486
Jan14
2618
Mar15
2940
Apr15
2646
May15
2621
Feb
6%
Mar
6%
Apr
4%
May
5%
One year growth
Jun
12%
Jul
12%
Aug
4%
Sep
20%
CAGR
Oct14
2202
Nov14
2332
Dec14
2589
Jan15
2709
Oct
1%
Nov
5%
Dec
4%
Based on the above CAGR and One year growth rate the month wise, season wise
projections for the future years are estimated. The season wise projections for future
years are shown in the table below:
Summer
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Feb
2751.5
2916.6
3091.5
3276.9
3473.4
3681.8
Mar
3121.1
3313.1
3516.9
3733.2
3962.8
4206.6
Apr
2740.7
2838.8
2940.4
3045.7
3154.7
May
2740.8
2865.9
2996.7
3133.5
3276.5
Page 24
Jan
4%
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
Winter
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Oct
2249.3
2273.6
2298.0
2322.8
2347.8
2373.1
Nov
2559.5
2681.5
2809.4
2943.4
3083.8
3230.8
Dec
2817.2
2938.5
3065.0
3196.9
3334.6
3478.2
Jan
2938.7
3060.6
3187.6
3319.9
3457.7
3601.1
Rainy
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Jun
2687.3
2998.6
3346.0
3733.6
4166.1
4648.8
5187.3
Jul
Aug
2492.3
2592.0
2695.6
2803.3
2915.3
3031.9
3153.1
Sep
2903.5
3474.6
4158.1
4975.9
5954.6
7125.8
8527.4
2803.1
3148.5
3536.6
3972.4
4461.9
5011.8
5629.5
The month wise clustered projections of each season are grouped into financial years
to arrive at the input energy at generation point from FY17 to FY21. The details are
depicted in the table below:
Month
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Total
% Growth
Avg. MW projected
FY16
2646.0
2621.1
2687.3
2803.1
2492.3
2903.5
2225.4
2443.0
2700.9
2821.6
2751.5
3121.1
32216.8
FY17
2740.7
2740.8
2998.6
3148.5
2592.0
3474.6
2249.3
2559.5
2817.2
2938.7
2916.6
3313.1
34489.5
7.05%
FY18
2838.8
2865.9
3346.0
3536.6
2695.6
4158.1
2273.6
2681.5
2938.5
3060.6
3091.5
3516.9
37003.4
7.29%
FY19
2940.4
2996.7
3733.6
3972.4
2803.3
4975.9
2298.0
2809.4
3065.0
3187.6
3276.9
3733.2
39792.5
7.54%
FY20
3045.7
3133.5
4166.1
4461.9
2915.3
5954.6
2322.8
2943.4
3196.9
3319.9
3473.4
3962.8
42896.5
7.80%
FY21
3154.7
3276.5
4648.8
5011.8
3031.9
7125.8
2347.8
3083.8
3334.6
3457.7
3681.8
4206.6
46361.7
8.08%
3678
3937
4224
4543
4897
5292
Peak MW projected
4970
5320
5708
6139
6617
7152
Page 25
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
This energy at generation point includes BESCOM consumption as well as wheeling,
banking, station auxiliary and open access consumption. Hence, the energy projected
and the growth rate are more in this method of projection. In other words, the system
or BESCOM’s grid is presently capable of handling this amount of energy. This
projection gives the road map for developing BESCOM’s distribution network.
Speaking of distribution network, the details of distribution transformers in MVA
from FY13 to FY15 are shown in the table below: The urban and rural details are also
depicted.
Year
FY13
FY14
FY15
Connected Load in MW
13520
14577
15561
Urban Load in MW
8229
9068
9843
Rural Load in MW
5291
5509
5717
The details of actual hourly, monthly peak demand (in MW) for the year 2011, 2012,
2013, 2014 and 2015(May15) are available. From this data, hourly peak of each year
is computed as shown in the tables below.
Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015*
Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015*
0:00
3196
3848
3548
3817
4185
1:00
3395
3781
3584
4001
4174
13:00
3582
3803
3799
4182
4445
2:00
3307
3874
3500
3863
3846
14:00
3510
3714
3741
4262
4393
3:00
3286
3785
3445
3721
3877
15:00
3518
3774
3675
4144
4597
4:00
3424
3747
3479
3861
3889
16:00
3497
3700
3708
4145
4292
5:00
3618
3629
3581
3906
4174
17:00
3451
3655
3631
4028
4165
6:00
3340
3879
3741
3937
4230
7:00
3623
3727
3933
4200
4359
18:00
3463
3590
3761
3957
4320
8:00
3794
3916
4186
4290
4504
19:00
3681
3953
4027
4249
4320
9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00
3754 3716 3655 3604
3983 4091 3846 3864
4020 3930 3927 3860
4295 4349 4317 4420
4528 4576 4535 4490
20:00
3644
3971
3955
4156
4304
21:00
3573
3898
3949
4007
4125
22:00
3461
3851
3914
4096
4493
23:00
3291
3843
3716
4071
4350
*Details up to May-15 are available
Page 26
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
The graph of hourly peak demand for 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 are plotted
as depicted below:
in MW
Peak demand
4800
4600
4400
4200
4000
3800
3600
3400
3200
3000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015(upto may)
Taking this as the base, projected peak demand on cumulative growth
rate for 2016 to 2021 is as under:
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
11:00
4786
5023
5299
5522
5755
5994
0:00
4477
4603
4886
5144
5360
5575
12:00
4744
4960
5242
5415
5640
5862
1:00
4395
4536
4790
4967
5155
5342
13:00
4691
4912
5198
5432
5661
5900
2:00
3993
4010
4145
4207
4296
4372
14:00
4646
4879
5171
5366
5599
5835
3:00
4041
4091
4264
4391
4514
4631
15:00
4915
5199
5606
5938
6233
6552
4:00
4015
4075
4234
4316
4420
4521
16:00
4517
4720
4980
5165
5374
5585
5:00
4326
4507
4749
4946
5123
5319
17:00
4366
4541
4776
4943
5130
5318
6:00
4487
4618
4844
5065
5259
5449
18:00
4566
4815
5074
5345
5578
5825
7:00
4565
4779
4984
5167
5361
5558
19:00
4496
4626
4774
4898
5041
5177
8:00
4701
4900
5068
5259
5440
5622
20:00
4487
4607
4772
4920
5069
5213
9:00
4745
4933
5163
5369
5568
5771
21:00
4276
4363
4464
4577
4688
4790
10:00
4821
4992
5273
5484
5697
5912
22:00
4796
5019
5295
5589
5838
6092
23:00
4664
4844
5137
5385
5625
5862
Page 27
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
6500
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
The details energy consumption (units) of 19 towns (R-APDRP Towns) was captured
from Infosys software. Out of the 19 towns, one year consumption (units) of only 13
towns was available. The available energy consumption (in units) of 13 towns for
FY15 are shown in the tables below:
Town Name
Bangarapaete
Bangarapaete
Bangarapaete
Bangarapaete
Bangarapaete
Bangarapaete
Bangarapaete
Bangarapaete
Bangarapaete
Bangarapaete
Bangarapaete
Bangarapaete
Town Name
Chickaballapura
Chickaballapura
Chickaballapura
Chickaballapura
Chickaballapura
Chickaballapura
Chickaballapura
Chickaballapura
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Year
2015
2015
2015
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
Year
2015
2015
2015
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
Metered Consumption
2,210,777
2,263,808
2,492,726
1,589,965
2103255
2103255
2103255
2103255
2,912,973
1,149,280
2103255
2103255
Metered Consumption
2,746,184
2,314,667
2,702,017
3,206,593
2,746,184
2,746,184
3,328,146
2,455,993
Page 28
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
Chickaballapura
Chickaballapura
Chickaballapura
Chickaballapura
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
9
10
11
12
2014
2014
2014
2014
2,467,446
2,024,618
3,469,997
2,746,184
Town Name
Chitradurga
Chitradurga
Chitradurga
Chitradurga
Chitradurga
Chitradurga
Chitradurga
Chitradurga
Chitradurga
Chitradurga
Chitradurga
Chitradurga
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Year
2015
2015
2015
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
Metered Consumption
4,353,429
4,183,138
5,089,261
5,665,840
6,460,982
4,482,202
5,781,245
5,068,564
4,320,452
4,435,231
4,320,573
4,424,583
Town Name
Davangere
Davengere
Davangere
Davangere
Davangere
Davangere
Davangere
Davangere
Davangere
Davangere
Davangere
Davangere
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Year
2015
2015
2015
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
Metered Consumption
15,551,519
16,663,041
17,936,082
16,876,646
17,831,285
16,581,792
15,404,599
15,022,827
15,785,878
15,670,482
15,063,352
16,031,456
Town Name
Harappanahalli
Harappanahalli
Harappanahalli
Harappanahalli
Harappanahalli
Harappanahalli
Harappanahalli
Harappanahalli
Harappanahalli
Harappanahalli
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Year
2015
2015
2015
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
Metered Consumption
921,496
915,029
900,488
935,237
767,401
884,027
900,488
900,488
900,488
928,774
Page 29
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
Harappanahalli
Harappanahalli
11
12
2014
2014
870,156
981,783
Town Name
Harihara
Harihara
Harihara
Harihara
Harihara
Harihara
Harihara
Harihara
Harihara
Harihara
Harihara
Harihara
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Year
2015
2015
2015
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
Metered Consumption
3,228,401
3,075,765
3,505,768
3,721,763
3,753,791
3,569,862
3,571,059
3,393,264
3,389,367
3,235,275
3,105,431
3,341,832
Town Name
Hosakote
Hosakote
Hosakote
Hosakote
Hosakote
Hosakote
Hosakote
Hosakote
Hosakote
Hosakote
Hosakote
Hosakote
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Year
2015
2015
2015
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
Metered Consumption
2,688,715
2,446,006
2,736,418
2,362,849
3,381,899
3,043,747
2,954,357
2,654,327
2,572,872
2,511,019
2,455,081
2,457,284
Town Name
Kolar
Kolar
Kolar
Kolar
Kolar
Kolar
Kolar
Kolar
Kolar
Kolar
Kolar
Kolar
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Year
2015
2015
2015
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
Metered Consumption
4,925,352
4,711,075
5,455,982
4,904,971
4,944,132
5,216,993
4,983,386
5,022,459
5,045,304
5,084,689
4,472,948
4,836,241
Page 30
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
Town Name
Kunigal
Kunigal
Kunigal
Kunigal
Kunigal
Kunigal
Kunigal
Kunigal
Kunigal
Kunigal
Kunigal
Kunigal
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Year
2015
2015
2015
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
Metered Consumption
1,135,284
1,245,184
1,355,424
1,021,819
1,065,230
989,693
1,564,435
1,180,024
2,001,969
1,564,435
1,564,435
1,303,481
Town Name
Shidlagatta
Shidlagatta
Shidlagatta
Shidlagatta
Shidlagatta
Shidlagatta
Shidlagatta
Shidlagatta
Shidlagatta
Shidlagatta
Shidlagatta
Shidlagatta
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Year
2015
2015
2015
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
Metered Consumption
1,693,661
1,599,561
1,986,420
1,396,884
1,617,927
1,734,100
1,617,927
1,683,129
1,332,662
1,617,927
1,617,927
1,516,999
Town Name
Shira Town
Shira Town
Shira Town
Shira Town
Shira Town
Shira Town
Shira Town
Shira Town
Shira Town
Shira Town
Shira Town
Shira Town
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Year
2015
2015
2015
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
Metered Consumption
1,342,450
1,309,445
1,617,670
1,883,265
1,485,437
1,399,511
1,829,931
1,624,074
1,445,179
1,383,105
1,336,136
1,357,774
Page 31
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
Town Name
Tiptur
Tiptur
Tiptur
Tiptur
Tiptur
Tiptur
Tiptur
Tiptur
Tiptur
Tiptur
Tiptur
Tiptur
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Year
2015
2015
2015
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
Metered Consumption
2,512,630
2,223,231
2,589,596
2,103,814
2,235,773
2,123,422
2,276,484
2,587,654
2,944,024
2,417,443
2,360,118
2,672,153
Town Name
Tumkur
Tumkur
Tumkur
Tumkur
Tumkur
Tumkur
Tumkur
Tumkur
Tumkur
Tumkur
Tumkur
Tumkur
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Year
2015
2015
2015
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
Metered Consumption
22,111,793
21,330,688
26,780,097
22,379,726
22,303,343
18,965,760
22,303,343
22,303,343
22,303,343
20,360,375
19,665,432
22,627,834
For 6 towns, i.e., Anekal, Chintamani, K.G.F, Kanakapura, Mulibagalu and Ramanagara
12 month’s consumption details was not made available.
Data obtained from the billing software is sanitized for some of the towns shown in
the table, the monthly consumption of certain towns (Bangarpete, Chikkaballapura,
Harapanahalli, Kolar, Kunigal, Shidlaghatta, Tiptur and Tumkur) were not in
commensurate with the other months. Hence the consumption of such months were
deleted and the average of the remaining consumption was considered in its place.
The month wise town wise consumption (MU) details are shown in the table below:
For FY-15, the consumption of these 13 towns and Bangalore city contributes 56% of
Page 32
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
BESCOM’s total consumption. Due to data migration between R-APDRP towns and
other Non – R-APDRP town’s data for some of the towns are not available for the
whole year. Only one year data is made available, hence the future estimation for
these towns and cities are not projected. However, the estimation for Bangalore city
has been projected.
Particulars
Bangarpete
Chickaballapura
Chitradurga
Davangere
Harappanahalli
Harihara
Hosakote
Kolar
Kunigal
Shidlagatta
Shira Town
Tiptur
Tumkur
Bangalore
Total
town/cities
BESCOM
% of city
consumption
Jan15
2.2
2.7
4.4
15.6
0.9
3.2
2.7
4.9
1.1
1.7
1.3
2.5
22.1
1014
Feb15
2.3
2.3
4.2
16.7
0.9
3.1
2.4
4.7
1.2
1.6
1.3
2.2
21.3
1002
Mar15
2.5
2.7
5.1
17.9
0.9
3.5
2.7
5.5
1.4
2.0
1.6
2.6
26.8
950.2
Apr14
1.6
3.2
5.7
16.9
0.9
3.7
2.4
4.9
1.0
1.4
1.9
2.1
22.4
1257
May14
2.1
2.7
6.5
17.8
0.8
3.8
3.4
4.9
1.1
1.6
1.5
2.2
22.3
1146
Jun14
2.1
2.7
4.5
16.6
0.9
3.6
3.0
5.2
1.0
1.7
1.4
2.1
19.0
1155
Jul14
2.1
3.3
5.8
15.4
0.9
3.6
3.0
5.0
1.6
1.6
1.8
2.3
22.3
1107
Aug14
2.1
2.5
5.1
15.0
0.9
3.4
2.7
5.0
1.2
1.7
1.6
2.6
22.3
1038
Sep14
2.9
2.5
4.3
15.8
0.9
3.4
2.6
5.0
2.0
1.3
1.4
2.9
22.3
1043
Oct14
1.1
2.0
4.4
15.7
0.9
3.2
2.5
5.1
1.6
1.6
1.4
2.4
20.4
1071
Nov14
2.1
3.5
4.3
15.1
0.9
3.1
2.5
4.5
1.6
1.6
1.3
2.4
19.7
1081
Dec14
2.1
2.7
4.4
16.0
1.0
3.3
2.5
4.8
1.3
1.5
1.4
2.7
22.6
901.2
25.2
33.0
58.6
194.4
10.8
40.9
32.3
59.6
16.0
19.4
18.0
29.0
263.4
12770
1079
2068
1067
2031
1025
2105
1325
2258
1217
2056
1219
2046
1176
1955
1104
2051
1110
1875
1134
1863
1143
1934
967.6
1834
13570
24083
52%
53%
49%
59%
59%
60%
60%
54%
59%
61%
59%
53%
56%
Total
The one year consumption pattern of Towns, District headquarters and Bangalore
city are plotted in different graphs as shown below:
Towns/Cities
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Bangarpete
Harappanahalli
Harihara
Hosakote
Kunigal
Shidlagatta
Shira Town
Tiptur
Nov-14
Dec-14
Page 33
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
District Headquarters
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-14
May-14
Chickaballapura
Jun-14
Chitradurga
Jul-14
Aug-14
Davangere
Sep-14
Kolar
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Tumkur
Bangalore city
1300.0
1200.0
1100.0
1000.0
900.0
800.0
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Bangalore
The estimation of Bangalore city from FY17 to FY21 are shown in the table below:
Category
BJ &KJ
Domestic
Commercial
Agri
Industrial
Water Supply
Street light
Temporary
Water Supply
Industrial
Comml
Hosp/Edu
Lift Irri.
Residential
Temporary
Total
FY-2017
0.0
5060.9
1463.4
83.1
807.5
117.1
295.2
191.6
377.6
2234.8
2668.7
183.7
0.0
172.7
69.7
13725.9
FY-2018
0.0
5389.0
1546.5
85.4
836.4
117.3
304.3
220.0
412.1
2234.8
2743.6
200.5
0.0
219.1
84.8
14393.7
FY-2019
0.0
5738.7
1635.0
87.9
867.1
117.5
313.9
253.0
450.1
2234.8
2822.6
218.9
0.0
283.1
103.1
15125.7
FY-2020
0.0
6111.4
1729.3
90.7
899.7
117.8
323.9
291.3
492.0
2234.8
2905.9
239.0
0.0
371.8
125.6
15933.0
FY-2021
0.0
6508.7
1829.8
93.8
934.4
118.0
334.4
336.0
538.1
2234.8
2993.7
260.9
0.0
494.4
152.8
16829.7
Page 34
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
The below chart depicts the tariff composition of Bangalore city
Tariff composition - Bangalore City
HT-Residential
3%
Hosp/Edu
1%
Temporary
1%
HT-Comml
18%
LT-Domestic
39%
HT-Industrial
13%
HT-Water Supply
3%
Temporary
2%
Street light
2%
LT-Commercial
11%
Water Supply
1%
Agri
1%
LT-Industrial
5%
Scenario 5: Energy Forecast based on Compounded Annual Growth Rate
(CAGR).
Earlier, while filing the Annual Revenue Requirement (ARR) for the 3rd control period
i.e., on 10.12.2012, taking FY-13 as the base year projections were made up to 2020.
The projected figures was based on 4 years Compounded Annual Growth Rate (4 years
CAGR) of different categories which ultimately worked out to overall 9.66%. The earlier
projections are shown in the table below:
Consumer Category
LT-1
FY-13
4
years
CAGR
FY-14
FY-15
FY-16
FY-17
FY-18
FY-19
FY-20
123.94
3.41%
128.17
132.54
137.06
141.74
146.58
151.58
156.75
LT-2(a)
4976.84
9.69%
5459.04
5987.95
6568.11
7204.48
7902.51
8668.17
9508.01
LT-2(b)
36.32
9.69%
39.84
43.71
47.94
52.59
57.69
63.28
69.41
Page 35
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
LT-3
1505.36
13.59%
1709.99
1942.43
2206.47
2506.40
2847.10
3234.12
3673.74
LT-4(a)
6012.17
5.39%
6336.18
6677.65
7037.53
7416.80
7816.51
8237.76
8681.71
LT-4( c )
4.60
26.93%
5.84
7.41
9.40
11.93
15.14
19.22
24.40
LT-4(d)
4.56
21.90%
5.55
6.77
8.25
10.06
12.26
14.94
18.22
1114.74
2.34%
1140.84
1167.55
1194.88
1222.86
1251.49
1280.79
1310.77
LT-6WS
450.40
9.43%
492.87
539.35
590.21
645.86
706.77
773.41
846.34
LT-6SL
409.61
6.11%
434.63
461.17
489.33
519.22
550.93
584.57
620.28
LT-7
139.48
8.76%
151.70
164.98
179.43
195.15
212.25
230.84
251.06
HT-1
511.67
2.98%
526.94
542.66
558.86
575.53
592.70
610.39
628.61
HT-2(a)
5038.40
13.37%
5711.88
6475.37
7340.93
8322.17
9434.58
10695.69
12125.36
HT-2(b)
3046.46
12.06%
3413.97
3825.81
4287.34
4804.54
5384.13
6033.64
6761.51
HT-3(a)
5.09
18.39%
6.02
7.13
8.44
9.99
11.83
14.00
16.57
HT-3(b)
0.16
0.00%
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
LT-5
HT-4
Total Sales
123.38
8.01%
133.26
143.93
155.45
167.90
181.34
195.86
211.54
23503.18
9.66%
25696.87
28126.57
30819.80
33807.38
37123.96
40808.42
44904.43
9.3%
9.5%
9.6%
9.7%
9.8%
9.9%
10.0%
14.00
13.80
13.60
13.40
13.20
13.00
12.80
12.60
27329.28
3.96
29810.75
3.94
32553.91
3.92
35588.68
3.90
38948.60
3.88
42671.22
3.86
46798.64
3.84
51378.07
3.82
28456.14
3248.42
31033.47
3542.63
33882.08
3867.82
37032.97
4227.51
40520.81
4625.66
44384.46
5066.72
48667.47
5555.65
53418.66
6098.02
4060.52
4428.29
4834.77
5284.38
5782.08
6333.40
6944.56
7622.53
% Growth
Distribution Loss
Energy Input @ IF
point
Transmission Loss
Energy Input @ Gen
point
MW requirement
Peak MW
requirement
The actuals for FY-14 and FY-15 are available. The tariff wise sales up to FY-15 are as
follows.
Tariff
category
LT-1
LT-2(a)
LT-2(b)
LT-3
LT-4(a)
LT-4( b )
LT-4(c)
LT-5
LT-6a(i)WS
LT-6a(ii)SL
LT-7
LT Total
HT-1
HT-2(a)
HT-2(b)
FY-04
100
2135
7
479
3536
1
1
853
207
213
41
7573
399
1565
561
FY-05
FY-06
FY-07
FY-08
FY-09
FY-10
FY-11
FY-12
FY-13
FY-14
86
2383
14
562
3531
1
1
870
223
221
50
7942
428
1816
770
78
2634
18
659
2885
1
1
905
239
350
68
7838
450
2210
1047
82
2975
22
771
3977
1
1
938
254
350
91
9463
471
2653
1444
97
3279
25
879
3607
3
2
957
284
258
108
9500
458
3058
1810
116
3568
26
953
4074
5
2
910
340
271
106
10370
462
3297
2076
112
3470
27
1026
4302
5
3
913
353
303
92
10606
489
3495
2182
111
4182
29
1192
4471
7
3
987
407
357
93
11839
482
3908
2387
116
4517
41
1333
5353
7
4
1044
460
401
127
13403
491
4363
2647
126
4925
34
1473
5726
6
4
1124
464
405
140
14427
523
4785
2909
124
5210
36
1537
5238
5
4
1109
467
394
148
14272
613
5069
2856
FY-15
(Prov.)
135
5632
37
1649
5868
5
4
1129
436
390
183
15468
656
4615
2738
Page 36
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
HT-2©
HT-3(a)
HT3 (b)
HT-4
HT-5
HT TOTAL
TOTAL
Inter ESCOM
Sales
GRAND TOTAL
2
1
62
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
7626
21030
11
0
120
20
8369
22796
90
9
0
110
47
8793
23065
184
36
0
126
260
8615
24083
21030
22796
23065
24083
70
1
0
75
0
0
91
1
0
89
1
0
89
1
1
93
2
0
106
6
0
118
2589
10162
3084
11026
3782
11620
4660
14123
5415
14916
5925
16295
6261
16867
6885
18724
10162
11026
11620
4
14126
18
14934
16295
16867
11
18735
Considering FY-15 as the base year, CAGR calculations are as under:
Tariff
category
LT-1
LT-2(a)
LT-2(b)
LT-3
LT-4(a)
CAGR
10yrs
-0.2%
9.1%
10.4%
11.4%
5.2%
CAGR
9yrs
0.8%
8.9%
8.2%
10.7%
8.2%
CAGR
8yrs
0.3%
8.4%
6.8%
10.0%
5.0%
CAGR
7yrs
-2.1%
8.2%
5.8%
9.4%
7.2%
CAGR
6yrs
-5.2%
8.1%
6.3%
9.6%
6.3%
CAGR
5yrs
-5.6%
10.4%
6.6%
9.9%
6.4%
CAGR
4yrs
12.2%
7.6%
6.6%
8.5%
7.0%
CAGR
3yrs
15.1%
7.5%
-3.6%
7.3%
3.1%
CAGR
2yrs
16.4%
6.7%
3.6%
5.8%
1.2%
CAGR
1yr
35.4%
13.9%
7.4%
11.9%
2.5%
One year
growth
9.4%
8.1%
1.9%
7.3%
12.0%
LT-4( b )
LT-4(c)
LT-5
LT-6a(i)WS
LT-6a(ii)SL
LT-7
LT Total
HT-1
HT-2(a)
HT-2(b)
HT-2©
HT-3(a)
HT3 (b)
HT-4
HT-5
HT TOTAL
TOTAL
GRAND
TOTAL
20.1%
14.0%
2.6%
6.9%
5.8%
13.9%
6.9%
4.4%
9.8%
13.5%
22.4%
14.0%
2.5%
6.9%
1.2%
11.7%
7.8%
4.3%
8.5%
11.3%
18.4%
13.7%
2.3%
7.0%
1.4%
9.1%
6.3%
4.2%
7.2%
8.3%
6.2%
8.2%
2.4%
6.3%
6.1%
7.9%
7.2%
5.3%
6.1%
6.1%
2.2%
11.7%
3.7%
4.2%
6.3%
9.4%
6.9%
6.0%
5.8%
4.7%
2.0%
6.6%
4.4%
4.3%
5.2%
14.7%
7.8%
6.1%
5.7%
4.6%
-5.9%
4.8%
3.4%
1.7%
2.3%
18.3%
6.9%
8.0%
4.2%
3.5%
-7.0%
-0.8%
2.7%
-1.8%
-0.9%
13.0%
4.9%
10.1%
1.9%
1.1%
-4.6%
-7.3%
0.2%
-3.1%
-1.8%
14.3%
3.5%
12.0%
-1.8%
-3.0%
-9.0%
-14.1%
0.5%
-6.1%
-3.6%
30.6%
7.2%
25.4%
-3.5%
-5.9%
42.8%
6.1%
53.3%
8.2%
5.9%
71.0%
0.7%
4.2%
83.2%
8.9%
5.2%
84.9%
-0.4%
6.1%
91.4%
-17.4%
6.2%
115.7%
9.8%
4.5%
81.1%
-14.3%
2.2%
213.4%
4.1%
5.0%
10.8%
8.1%
9.6%
8.4%
8.0%
6.9%
6.9%
7.1%
6.4%
6.7%
6.6%
7.4%
5.8%
6.5%
4.1%
4.6%
77.0%
2.0%
2.5%
258.8%
1.5%
2.8%
2.9%
5.6%
8.4%
6.6%
1.8%
-6.7%
-1.0%
23.6%
8.4%
7.0%
-9.0%
-4.1%
105.2%
294.9%
87.6%
15.0%
453.6%
-2.0%
4.4%
8.1%
8.4%
6.9%
7.1%
6.7%
7.4%
6.5%
4.6%
2.8%
5.6%
4.4%
By comparing the projected figures of FY-14 and FY-15 during 10.12.2012 and the
actuals of FY-14 and FY-15, the results are most discouraging. Average growth
projected was 9.66% whereas achieved is only 5.15%. ie., only 53% of the projections
are achieved.
From the above table it is evident that the growth rate is declining for the recent years.
Declining trend are seen in the sales of HT- industrial, HT- Commercial, LT- street
Page 37
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
lights and LT- industries. In the recent years, due to change in law for the captive
generation, group captive generation is in vogue. Beside this, Hon’ble Commission has
exempted wheeling charges for the Non –Conventional Energy (NCE) generators,
which pave the way for NCE generators to tap the high end consumers of BESCOM.
Revised energy projections in MU from FY17 to FY21
Tariff category
LT-1
LT-2(a)
LT-2(b)
LT-3
LT-4(a)
LT-4(b)
LT-4( c )
LT-5
LT-6a(i)WR
LT-6a(ii)SL
LT-7
LT Total
HT-1
HT-2(a)
HT-2(b)
HT-2©
HT-3(a)
HT3 (b)
HT-4
HT-5
HT TOTAL
TOTAL
Distribution loss in %
Energy requirement at IF
point
Transmission loss in %
Energy requirement at
Generation point
Avg. Day wise consumption in
Mu
Avg. day wise demand in MW
Peak demand requirement
FY15(Prov.)
84
5683
37
1649
5868
5
4
1129
436
390
183
15468
656
4615
2738
184
36
0
126
260
8615
24083
CAGR
4yrs
12.2%
7.6%
6.6%
8.5%
7.0%
-5.9%
4.8%
3.4%
1.7%
2.3%
18.3%
6.9%
8.0%
4.2%
3.5%
115.7%
9.8%
4.5%
5.8%
6.5%
Correction
factor
0%
7.6%
6.6%
8.5%
7.0%
0
4.8%
3.4%
1.7%
2.3%
18.3%
8.0%
1.9%
1.1%
1.1%
0.0%
9.8%
4.5%
0.0%
5.8%
FY-16
FY-17
FY-18
FY-19
FY-20
FY-21
84
6114.8
39.4
1788.3
6280.8
5.3
4.0
1168.0
443.2
399.2
216.1
16543.1
708.4
4702.1
2768.5
186.1
36.0
0.2
131.9
259.6
8792.9
25336.0
13.4
84
6579.5
42.0
1939.6
6722.5
5.3
4.2
1207.9
450.8
408.2
255.5
17699.6
765.1
4790.8
2799.8
188.2
36.0
0.2
137.8
259.6
8977.5
26677.1
13.2
84
7079.4
44.8
2103.7
7195.2
5.3
4.4
1249.3
458.5
417.5
302.2
18944.4
826.3
4881.2
2831.3
190.3
36.0
0.3
143.9
259.6
9169.0
28113.4
13
84
7617.4
47.7
2281.7
7701.1
5.3
4.6
1292.0
466.4
427.0
357.5
20284.8
892.3
4973.3
2863.3
192.5
36.0
0.3
150.4
259.6
9367.7
29652.4
12.8
84
8196.2
50.9
2474.7
8242.7
5.3
4.8
1336.2
474.4
436.6
422.8
21728.8
963.6
5067.1
2895.6
194.7
36.0
0.3
157.1
259.6
9574.0
31302.8
12.6
84
8819.0
54.2
2684.1
8822.3
5.3
5.1
1381.9
482.6
446.6
500.1
23285.2
1040.7
5162.7
2928.3
196.9
36.0
0.3
164.1
259.6
9788.6
33073.8
12.4
29256
3.90
30734
3.88
32314
3.86
34005
3.84
35816
3.82
37755
3.8
30444
31975
33612
35363
37238
39247
83
3475
4696
88
3650
4933
92
3837
5185
97
4037
5455
102
4251
5744
108
4480
6054
Page 38
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
Following points are considered for modification of
Energy Forecast based on
Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR).
1. Actual category wise sales of FY-14 and FY-15 are considered for projections.
2. In respect of BJ/KJ, no new scheme by GoK hence the consumption of FY15 is
retained.
3. Agriculture projections are based on specific consumption. Commission had
approved 7795 units/IP/annum for FY16. But, BESCOM has projected
agriculture consumption at 7% (4 year CAGR) considering increase in number
of IP installations.
4. For HT industrial and commercial consumers 3 year CAGR is considered for
projections as decline in growth of these consumers in the recent years.
5. In case of LT4b and HT3a the 4 year CAGR is showing negative and abnormal
growth for the respective categories. The consumption under these two
categories is meagre. Hence, no growth rate is considered.
6. HT-2c and HT5 categories are newly created. For HT2c, HT2b growth rate of
1.1% is considered (as it was billed under this category earlier). For HT5
category no growth rate is considered as it was part of LT7 category earlier.
Page 39
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
Summary of projections made earlier ie., 10.12.2012 under different
scenarios:
Methodology
Per Capita
Consumption
Projected
Energy input in MU
2012
25658
Avg. MW projected
Peak MW projected
2929
3661
Energy input in MU
EPS
Projections
Circle wise
sales
projections
CAGR
Projections
2013
28585
11.41
3263
4079
2014
31857
11.45
3637
4546
2015
35516
11.49
4054
5068
2016
39610
11.53
4522
5652
2017
43156
8.95
4926
6158
2018
47036
8.99
5369
6712
2019
51283
9.03
5854
7318
2020
55911
9.02
6383
7978
26686
29070
31559
33980
36549
39411
42584
46014
8.93
8.56
7.67
7.56
7.83
8.05
8.05
Avg. MW projected
0
3046
3319
3603
3879
4172
4499
4861
5253
Peak MW projected
0
3808
4148
4503
4849
5215
5624
6077
6566
Energy input in MU
25658
27415
25658
3130
3912
28456
29537
7.74
3372
4215
31033
9.06
3543
4428
31888
7.96
3640
4550
33882
9.18
3868
4835
34494
8.17
3938
4922
37033
9.30
4228
5284
37385
8.38
4268
5335
40521
9.42
4626
5782
40595
8.59
4634
5793
44384
9.53
5067
6333
44163
8.79
5041
6302
48768
9.88
5567
6959
48074
8.86
5488
6860
53640
9.99
6123
7654
Avg. MW projected
Peak MW projected
Energy input in MU
Avg. MW projected
Peak MW projected
3248
4061
Modified projections under different scenarios.
Methodology
Per Capita Consumption
EPS Projections
Circle wise sales projections
C-STEP Projections
Area Load dispatch center
based Projections
CAGR Projections
Projected
Energy input in MU
Growth %
Avg. MW projected
Peak MW projected
Energy input in MU
Growth %
Avg. MW projected
Peak MW projected
Energy input in MU
Growth %
Avg. MW projected
Peak MW projected
Energy input in MU
Growth %
Avg. MW projected
Peak MW projected
Energy input in MU
Growth %
Avg. MW projected
Peak MW projected
Energy input in MU
Growth %
Avg. MW projected
Peak MW projected
2017
35039
4000
5263
33599
3836
5221
31369
3581
4712
32311
3688
5123
34490
3937
5320
31975
3650
4933
2018
37519
7.08%
4283
5636
35849
6.70%
4092
5571
32853
4.73%
3750
4935
33409
3.40%
3814
5297
37003
7.29%
4224
5708
33612
5.12%
3837
5185
2019
40155
7.03%
4584
6032
38138
6.38%
4354
5927
34474
4.93%
3935
5178
34577
3.50%
3947
5482
39792
7.54%
4543
6139
35363
5.21%
4037
5455
2020
42957
6.98%
4890
6435
40599
6.45%
4622
6292
36252
5.16%
4127
5430
35822
3.60%
4089
5680
42896
7.80%
4897
6617
37238
5.30%
4251
5744
2021
45952
6.97%
5231
6883
43263
6.56%
4939
6723
38216
5.42%
4363
5740
37147
3.70%
4240
5890
46362
8.08%
5292
7152
39247
5.39%
4480
6054
Page 40
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
Graphical representation of the revised Peak load projections under different
scenarios are shown below:
Projections under different scenarios
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2017
2018
2019
2020
Per Capita Projection
EPS Projections
Circle wise projections
C-STEP Projections
ALDC based Projections
CAGR Projections
2021
Inference:
 Per capita consumption:
BESCOM had proposed a cent percent increase in per capita consumption
from 1110 units (FY11) to 2221 units (FY20) at 7.4% yearly growth rate in
its earlier filing, which was more ambitious target. Based on actuals it can be
realized that the actual average growth from FY12 to FY15 is 4.72%. Since,
per capita consumption is based on population projection based on per capita
consumption is a more unworkable forecast. Such projections based may be
used to plan for investment in infrastructure.
 EPS Projections:
The Commission has directed the Licensee to follow the CEA guidelines in
forecasting the energy projections. The 18th EPS figures are considered for
projections. The targeted energy projection has not been achieved due to the
Page 41
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
occurrence of unpredictable events. BESCOM had considered 46.14% of
State energy for projections. But as per actuals BESCOM has consumed
42.41% of State energy. Based on actuals, BESCOM has reduced its
projections by 8% from its earlier filing.
 Circle wise Projection:
The total circle wise projection figures are done on similar lines of CAGR
projected figures. BESCOM had projected 7.97% average growth rate in its
earlier filing. But as per actuals the average growth rate has been reduced to
5.5%. The latter average growth is considered for forecasting. This exercise
gave an indication about the sales growth attributable to certain categories
of consumers at the circle level. It is noticed that 4 circles of BMAZ i.e south,
north, east and west have a major portion of domestic and HT industries and
commercial consumption. Bangalore Rural and Ramanagara circles HT
industries and IP is more than 50% in comparison to other categories. The
percentage of agricultural consumption in rest of rural circles is more than
the other categories. Since the agricultural consumption is assessed, the
consumption / sales under this category is debatable. The percentage of
consumption under unmetered categories is more in rural circles. Hence,
projections made on the basis of circle wise consumption may lead to
increase in estimation of unmetered sales, which may not be realistic.
 Karnataka Road Map 2021-22 by M/s CSTEP:
CSTEP projections are also considered for projecting BESCOM’s energy. M/s
CSTEP had also prepared the report based on 4 years CAGR. The projections
are for the whole State. For BESCOM’s energy projections, 48% of the
projected State energy is considered. Since, the energy projections are
prepared based on 18th EPS, the energy worked out seems to be more
optimistic. Hence, this methodology is not adopted by BESCOM.
Page 42
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
 Projections based on ALDC:
For the first time BESCOM has made projections based on the details
available at ALDC. This energy at generation point includes BESCOM
consumption as well as wheeling, banking, station auxiliary and open
access consumption. Hence, the energy projected and the growth rate are
more in this method of projection. In other words, the system or BESCOM’s
grid is presently capable of handling this amount of energy. This projection
gives the road map for developing BESCOM’s distribution network. Since,
the energy projected consists of wheeling, banking, station auxiliary and
open access consumption this methodology cannot be made use of as the
revenue demand in this kind of projections will be on the higher side.
 CAGR projections:
Average growth projected under this methodology was 9.66% whereas
achieved is only 5.15%. i.e., only 53% of the projections are achieved. It is
also evident that the growth rate is declining for the recent years. Declining
trend are seen in the sales of HT- industrial, HT- Commercial, LT- street
lights and LT- industries. In the recent years, due to change in law for the
captive generation, group captive generation is in vogue. Beside this,
Hon’ble Commission has exempted wheeling charges for the Non–
Conventional Energy (NCE) generators, which pave the way for NCE
generators to tap the high end consumers of BESCOM. The corrected CAGR
percentages are considered for the present projections. From the past data
it can be seen that the CAGR projections and actual sales values recorded
are nearer to the projections.
Page 43
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
In view of the above the CAGR method has been reckoned for the purpose
of sales forecast for the 4th control period for FY-17 to FY-19.
Limitations:
1.
New regulations initiated by the regulators have changed the consumption
pattern of high end consumers.
2.
Planning for power system is essentially a projection of how the system
grows over a specific period of time. Any plan can become technically and
economically obsolete when new inventions in electrical utilization
equipment’s are taken up.
3.
Unforeseen industrial, commercial or residential projects can change the
load forecast.
4.
Breakthroughs in new generation and transmission technologies and un
expected inflation in equipment labor costs can take the plan in other
directions.
5.
Reliability is one of the most important criteria which must be taken into
consideration during all phases of power system planning, design and
operation.
Page 44
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
Capex plan:
BESCOM comes under southern grid and the peak demand is
growing at a higher percentage compared to the energy requirement.
Besides other reasons this phenomenon can be attributed to growing
urbanization, changes in life style & efficiency improvement (In terms
of reduction in losses) in the distribution system. Especially in case
of BESCOM the reduction in losses has led to suppressed increase in
energy requirement, whereas the higher penetrations of electronics
appliances have led to higher increase in the peak demand during
the past two years.
BESCOM has identified the following key areas for the need based
investments.
 AT&C losses reduction : Metering:
 Re-conductoring of lines (HT and LT)
 Evacuation of New Line/link Line for Urban / Rural Area: Improvement in quality of supply:
 Other normal schemes
 IT interventions
Capital Works envisaged from 2016-17 to 2020-21:BESCOM has prepared a perspective plan for capital investments
totaling to Rs.4650 Crores for the period from 2016-17 to 2020-21.
Year on year, scheme wise based on the previous data. Details are
called from the field staff. Data is yet to receive from the field.
Page 45
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
Commission framed the guidelines for preparation of Capital
Investment plan for the future years.
It is very difficult to predict technology upgradation, innovations,
statutory adherence, system compulsion etc., Due to these changes
the Investment plan will be affected.
Any deviations to the above plan will be submitted to the Commission
in due course
Details of Capex plan is as under.
Sl No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Particular of the works
under Major/ Minor heads
11 KV Evacuation & Link
Lines (14.172 /14.143)
Safety and Strengthening of
HT/LT network including
OH/UG cable and AB cable
works (14.146)
HT Reconductoring (14.147)
LT Reconductoring (14.145)
Providing Additional
DTC's/Enhancement of
DTC's
Planned works (RE / SCP /
TSP/Drinking Water
Supply/Gangakalyana and
service connection)
Local Planning
RMU Works
Safety Measures/ Hazardous
(shifting DTC at school
premises) (14.148)
OH to UG Conversion
Infrastructure to
Unauthorized IP sets
Providing & replacement of
RMUs
FY -17
FY -18
68.32
72.05
34.37
FY -19
FY -20
FY -21
78.06
93.8
86.51
38.33
43.15
53.22
47.72
27.95
30.77
29.6
29.63
30.87
26.71
35.7
27.29
33.63
25.08
50.49
48.83
44.8
46.91
42.98
52.27
47.21
45.48
44.31
40.33
37.2
3.89
36.01
4.232
34.91
3.827
38.27
4.136
34.25
3.931
12.2
12.74
11.76
12.43
11.35
2.19
2.10
1.98
1.98
1.84
19.95
5.19
3.27
3.86
3.29
0.62
0.59
0.56
0.56
0.52
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Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Replacement of
Electromechanical Meters by
Static Meters / MNR
Meters/Providing modems
to DTCs, HT & Boundary
meters in RAPDRP area,
Smart meters, replacement
of HTMC of HT installation
DTC Metering programme
IPDS
DDUGJY
HVDS
NJY Phase-3
DSM
Total
MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)
34.65
23.77
8.75
6
6
2.25
357
330
100
250
64.51
1529
2
100
100
100
250
64.97
967.3
1.75
100
100
100
77.3
713.2
1.5
100
100
100
72.9
742.9
1.5
100
100
100
58.69
697.6
Page 47