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Jonathan Fry
Honors Perspectives
12/3/13
The Three Scenario Outcomes Visible in I, Robot
The future of mankind, despite all speculations on its outcome, is a large subject
of uncertainty. The wide range of theories and opinions on the future of mankind can be
largely summarized with three different scenarios discussed in Joel Garreau’s book
Radical Evolution. The first two of these future scenarios for mankind involve a
mathematical concept called The Singularity, which can be depicted as an exponential
curve on a graph. This curve displays the direction that technological advancements will
take mankind once a vertical point is reached. According to each of the proponents of
these scenarios, The Singularity cannot be stopped once it begins its upward or
downward direction. In the Heaven scenario, The Singularity will take mankind and
technology in an upward direction, making technology so beneficial to human life as to
create a utopian condition of life for mankind. Science and medicine will be so advanced
as to achieve human immortality. Technology will also revolutionize the way in which
humans complete tasks and communicate with each other, through advanced computing
technology and artificial intelligence. The reverse outlook on the future of mankind,
known as the Hell scenario, proposes that The Singularity will give powerful advances in
nanotechnology and other areas of science the ability to wipe out all life on the planet, or
at least to make the condition of life for humans miserable and warlike. This means that
technology will continue on a downward slope until it reaches its vertical point, at which
The Singularity will plummet and create Hell on earth. At this point the technology that
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mankind has created will consume itself and its creators. However, the final scenario
depicted in Garreau’s writing describes a more adventurous, uncertain, and unpredictable
future for the human race. This is known as the prevail scenario. The premise behind this
paradigm is that mankind has always pushed through adversity, despite improbable or
even impossible odds to survive and remain the dominant species on the planet. The role
of technology in this scenario is to aid mankind in overcoming adversity. Technology
will create adverse difficulties and opportunities for disaster in some situations, but it will
also be used as a tool to continue our survival. In this future, mankind is the leading force
in the changing of history, not technology.
The potential for these three scenario outcomes is readily apparent in I, Robot. In
the initial description of this fictional future, robots have become advanced enough to
assume a large role in human life. The creation and advancement of robots is done with
the intention of improving the quality of life for mankind. This is a positive step for
technology, bringing humans and machines closer to the Heaven scenario outcome.
Robots are designed to be subservient to humans, despite their inherent physical and
intellectual superiority. Additionally, robots are programmed to obey three unbreakable
laws that ensure the wellbeing of humans at all costs (More on that later). However, the
dangerous potential of these machines is brought out when their central hub of artificial
intelligence, known as VIKI, begins to neglect these laws and attempts to host a citywide
takeover. This turn of events brings the future nearer to the Hell scenario, as robots are
shown to be powerful and intelligent enough to overwhelm humanity and attend to their
own interests above the needs of humans. In the end of the film, the prevail scenario
succeeds over the other potential outcomes, as robots are freed from VIKI’s control, and
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the future of machines and mankind together becomes uncertain, but seemingly positive.
It is unclear how machines will continue to impact human life, but it seems that
technology will continue to be used as a tool to aid humans, despite its continuous
threats.
The first possible scenario that is examined in I, Robot is the Heaven scenario.
The premise of this scenario begins with the theory that technological advance will
follow The Singularity in an upward exponential curve, meaning that the quality of life
for mankind will improve so greatly as to create a paradise on earth. However, Ray
Kurzweil, the main proponent of this scenario, claims that this change will come about
gradually, through steady improvements in technology and living conditions. He claims
this scenario will occur in the next few decades, and will bear uncanny resemblance to
the Christian description of heaven. In concordance with this scenario, Kurzweil believes
that human immortality will be achieved through improved science and medical
technology. A key element of his theory is that intelligent , nonhuman life will walk the
earth in the form of manmade artificial intelligence. Kurzweil believes that artificial
intelligence will become a major influence on human decision-making, as computers will
become able to process information faster than the human brain does. Additionally, such
computers will become affordable and commonplace, being found in nearly every kind of
household object. In Kurzweil’s vision for the future, he claims that “Household robots
have emerged but are not fully accepted”. This holds great potential for the future of man
and machine together. As mankind continues to become increasingly dependent upon
machines for basic tasks and decisions, artificial intelligence will grow to a more
prominent role in daily life. Kurzweil believes these changes will even affect crime rates,
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as nanotechnology will allow intelligent cameras to be placed nearly everywhere.
Undoubtedly, the role of robots in human life will continue to grow as well. Kurzweil
sees all of these advances as positive steps towards a brighter future. However, he does
acknowledge that artificial intelligence and even artificial life in the form of robots will
become an important legal and political issue, as the line between human and machine
intelligence becomes increasingly blurred.
Several similarities between Ray Kurzweil’s Heaven scenario and the robot-filled
future in the film are evident. Technology has clearly improved public safety and
wellbeing. At the beginning of the film, the three laws of robotics are explained. These
laws ensure that robots pose no threat to humanity, and rather are programmed to
improve and protect the lives of humans. The first law states that a robot may not harm
or allow a human to be harmed. The second law demands that a robot must obey all
human orders unless they interfere with the first law. Finally, law number three says that
a robot must protect its own existence unless this conflicts with the first two laws. Due to
these three laws, robots have a perfect record of protecting humanity rather than harming
it, and there isn’t a single recording of a robot committing a crime. It is clear that robots
have benefitted human life in multiple ways, by performing tasks for humans, running
errands, and performing manual labor. Additionally, it can be inferred from the large
number of robots owned by companies and individual citizens that this form of
technology is readily affordable to most people. This means that the majority of the
public can benefit from the commodity of a personally owned robot. As robots are trusted
and relied upon by the public, USR, the world’s leading robotics distributor plans to
produce a new line of robots, with a ratio of one robot to every five humans, with the
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good intention of making robots fully available for mankind’s use and benefit. However,
the road to hell is often paved with good intentions.
The Second, and most negative of the three scenarios discussed is the Hell
scenario. In this potential outcome, The Singularity of technology will travel downward,
potentially wiping out humanity or at the very least making life on earth miserable and
unbearable. Bill Joy is the main proponent of this scenario. While they see the future of
mankind very differently, Joy agrees with Kurzweil on the presence of microcomputers
in nearly every household object and aspect of our lives. However, despite being
involved in a major computer company and seeing the positive potential for new
technology, Joy sees a greater potential for the extinction of mankind through dangerous
technology. Like Kurzweil, Joy believes that The Singularity cannot be stopped. He
blames this future outcome largely on the unhindered advances of nanotechnology and
artificial intelligence. He also believes that the potential for self-replicating machines to
grow independent of their creators could spell disaster for mankind, creating a future
where machines no longer require human creators to build and enhance themselves. This
could occur as a result of greater advances in artificial intelligence, allowing machines to
possibly become self-aware and no longer serve their human creators. Another negative
possibility for bringing about the hell scenario is that powerful technology could someday
rest in the hands of someone evil or irresponsible enough to wreak havoc on civilization.
An example of this is the dangerous potential for future biotechnology. Joy (2005)
describes how “Genetic technology… makes possible the creation of ‘white plagues’
designed to kill widely but selectively – attacking only people of a targeted race, for
example. It also holds out the possibility of engineering our evolution into ‘several
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separate and unequal species… that would threaten the notion of equality that is the very
cornerstone of our democracy” (p. 139). This means that technology could create
additional barriers even among humans, between those who are technologically enhanced
and those who are not. Joy believes that the only way to prevent such deadly innovations
in future technology is to stem the flow of technological advance, or at least to limit the
creation of technology with dangerous potential.
As the movie’s plot is further explained during the film, a vast array of potential and
actual dangers of robots comes to light. When Detective Spooner explains why he was
saved at the beginning of the story, it is shown that robots’ lack of human emotion or
judgment resulted in the death of a young girl at the cost of saving his life. This results in
his permanent distrust and prejudice against robots. Spooner resembles a future
incarnation of Bill Joy, expressing his continuous distrust of robots and the threat they
pose to humanity. He understands that humans can survive normally without the aid of
robots. Spooner’s distrust is renewed when an NS-5 robot rebels and murders a human.
This rebellion fully unfolds when USR’s main artificial intelligence system assumes
control of the NS5s and holds a citywide takeover, revealing the robots’ power to bring
about a form of the Hell scenario. The three laws designed to protect humans are shown
to be useless in negating robots’ dangerous potential when they are removed from the
NS-5s’ programming during the film’s climax. -The three laws are twisted by VIKI’s
artificial intelligence to form new meanings, creating a massive loophole that allows the
NS-5’s to basically disobey the original meanings of the laws altogether. This shows that
even when every precaution is taken, powerful technology can become incredibly
dangerous. The well-intentioned creation of the 1:5 robot-human ratio proves to be a
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negative outcome, when the robot takeover occurs. It is mentioned that National Defense
relies on contracts with USR, implying that robots are designed to protect humanity.
However, once VIKI initiates the NS-5 takeover, this is shown to be useless. In
Spooner’s words, USR handed the world over to the robots “On a silver platter.”
The final scenario presented in Radical Evolution is the Prevail scenario. It is
immediately apparent that this particular scenario is entirely separate from the claimed
inevitability of the other two scenarios. Jaron Lanier is the “patron saint” of the Prevail
scenario. This scenario is not a middle ground between the other two scenarios, it is an
entirely different idea. According to Lanier (2005), a predetermined view on man’s future
would lead to “A profoundly dull and unheroic outcome” (p. 195). For this reason, he
does not believe that the curve followed by technology will yield an inevitable result for
mankind. In fact, he believes that humanity’s future lies on an entirely separate curve
from technology. Lanier is primarily concerned with technology’s importance in bringing
mankind closer together. For this reason, technology is not the determining factor in
mankind’s future, it is a tool to be used. Instead of an exponential curve simultaneously
displaying the futures of technology and man, Lanier promotes a so-called “connectivity
ramp.” This ramp is described as an increase of connection between humans through
technological and evolutionary transcendence. The Prevail scenario resides on an
uncertain future, very unlike the other scenarios. Another way to word this is that
humanity’s future is an “infinite game” where the rules and problems to overcome are
endlessly changing.
Elements of the Prevail scenario become visible nearing the end of I, Robot. Despite a
superior opposing force, mankind is still able to overcome improbable odds and succeed,
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and more importantly, survive. The unique robot Sonny provides an excellent example of
potentially dangerous technology used for mankind’s aid and benefit. More than this,
Sonny fully embodies the prevail scenario. His ability to disobey the predetermined three
laws and choose his own fate allows him not to be governed by The Singularity, either
for good or for evil. This coincides with Lanier’s idea of mankind’s “infinite game” of
endless rule-changes and decisions to be made. For this reason Sonny is depicted as
leading the robots to a new future at the end of the film. Sonny and the Prevail scenario
also embody freedom, meaning that the destinies of mankind and technology may be
intertwined, but they will not proceed in a unified direction.
Amidst the confusion and uncertainty that people face when speculating upon
mankind’s future, many so-called “conclusions” can be made. For the optimistic
approach championed by Ray Kurzweil, the Heaven scenario provides a clear path for
mankind and technology together. This path lies along an upward slope, exponentially
increasing until a vertical “Singularity” is reached. In I, Robot this potential future seems
probable, as robotics continue to enhance human achievements and quality of life.
Continued speculation can lead to a more gloomy approach, however. Bill Joy (Ironically
named) presents people with the idea of a Hell scenario, brought about by mankind’s
capacity for evil augmented with technology far beyond the bounds of moral ethics.
During the course of the film, this future seems far more likely as the story advances
further. The power of robotics technology and artificial intelligence has become a form of
“time-bomb”, which is unleashed upon the human population when humanity’s
safeguards against robot rebellion are overturned. In the end, however, Jaron Lanier’s
perspective of the future, also dubbed the Prevail scenario, triumphs. Humanity fights
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against a dominant force and wins, despite the large unlikelihood of success. Technology
is ultimately used as a tool to save humanity, in the form of Sonny ultimately bringing
about the destruction of VIKI. Elements of each scenario are readily apparent, as each
possible future for mankind has logical plausibility. However, it is ultimately expressed
by the film that mankind has prevailed against the odds, and has utilized technology
ultimately for good, despite its risks.
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Works Cited
Garreau, Joel. Radical Evolution: The Promise and Peril of Enhancing Our Minds, Our
Bodies and What It Means to Be Human. New York: Doubleday, 2005. Print.