Jerusalem Temperature and the Effects of the Global Warming
A.K.A.E-Kadi
Department of Geography, Islamic University of Gaza, Palestine
kadi@iugaza.edu
Abstract
The analysis of large-scale climate variations requires large-scale data for the period of interest as
well as for reference periods. Jerusalem annual and seasonal temperatures from 1973 to 2007
have been investigated to detect the effects and the magnitude of the global warming over the
City.
Annual temperature shows a long-term significant trend of 1.55oC during 1973-2007. Spring,
summer, autumn and winter temperature rises significantly in the period 1973-2007. The
magnitude of warming have been stronger from around 1980s onward than for the whole period.
The warming of 1985-2007 is almost twice than those for the whole period. The rises of
Jerusalem temperature from around the 1980s was similar to those reported over the world and in
different countries worldwide. The highest warming was reported for both summer and autumn
(for the two period), and the warming was less for winter season.
Key word Jerusalem Palestine Temperature Global Warming
Introduction
Global mean temperature at the Earth’s surface responds both to externally imposed
forcings, such as those arising from anthropogenic greenhouse gases(GHG), as well as to
natural modes of variability internal to the climate system. Variability associated with
these latter processes, generally referred to as natural long-term climate variability
(Swanson et al., 2009).The anthropogenic forcings include greenhouse gases, sulphate
aerosols from the industry and deforestation. The natural are related to changes in the
amount of stratospheric aerosols following large volcanic eruptions, and to modifications
in solar radiation (related to the periodic changes in the Earth’s orbital elements as well
as to the energy output of the Sun itself (Bertrand et al., 2002). By assuming that, in
contrast with volcanic eruptions that could generate short-term effects along a few
years, the possible effects on temperatures due to GHG increase are of long-term and
continuous nature (Mart´ınez et al., 2010).
Global GHG(CO2, CH4 and NO2) emissions due to human activities have grown since preindustrial times, with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004. Carbon dioxide (CO2)
is the most important anthropogenic GHG. Its annual emissions have grown between
1970 and 2004 by about 80%, from 21 to 38 gigatonnes (Gt), and represented 77% of
total anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2004. This is due principally to human activity
through burning fossil fuels, coal, gas and oil (Mitchell et al., 2006).
The 1906-2005 linear trend for global temperature was 0.74°C. Eleven of the last twelve
years (1995-2006) rank among the twelve warmest years in the instrumental record of
global surface temperature since 1850 (IPCC, 2007). Changes in surface temperature
1
observed over the 20th century show warming over most of the world with, in general,
land warming more than the ocean (Tett et al., 2000).
Over the last three decades, there has been growing concern that increases in
atmospheric greenhouse gases will lead to substantial changes in the Earth’s climate, in
addition to a general increase in temperature (Mitchell et al., 2006). In the
Mediterranean basin, future climate change is likely to aggravate significantly the
existing problem of desertification and critically undermine the effectiveness of efforts
to combat it (Xoplaki et al., 2004).
The Climate of the Eastern Coastal Mediterranean region is characterized by changeable
rainy weather with moderate temperatures during the cool seasons, and dry and hot
weather during summer, dominated by polar front activity in winter, and by a
subtropical high-pressure system during summer (Krichak et al., 2010).
The following investigations is an attempt to understand and to clarify the linear trend
of Jerusalem temperature during 1973-2007.)
Data and Methodology
Jerusalem monthly data was taken from Spanish Meteorological Service. The data is
available for the period 1951-2007 (http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/JERUSALEM/401840.htm)
Jerusalem located in the eastern Mediterranean region, at 31°47'N and 035°13'E.
it is around 80km inland from the Eastern Mediterranean coast with 600 m above the
sea level. The earlier record was incomplete and the series was interrupted by
continuous record of missing data from 1963 to 1972. Therefore the data selected is for
the period from 1973 to 2007, no data go beyond the 2007. Linear trend is used to
interpreted the magnitude of the warming. Smooth time series curves are fitted to the
seasonal and annual data to highlight the temperature variability during the period of
investigation.
Winter
Figure(1) show winter temperature during the period 1973-2007. During this period
temperature increased by 1.23oC nearly significant at 0.05 (Table 1). Temperature
decrease from 1973 to 1992 interspersed by relative rises from 1980-1985 (Figure 1). A
cooling trend of -0.9oC in winter was found in Alexandria during early1960 to early1970s
(Hasanean, 2004).
The temperature increases rapidly from early 1990s onward. The period from mid1985s
onward shows a highly significant trend of 2.23oC (Table 2), nearly twice than the whole
period (1973-2007).
Winter months in the period 1976-1999, were characterized by rapid warming over the
Mediterranean (Klein Tank, 2002). Significant positive trend of surface air temperature
over the Mediterranean, due to winter season is related to an increase of up to 6
hPa/50 years in the pressure data (Brunetti, et al., 2002), and the winter warming is
accompanied by an increase in the number of warm-spell days (Klein Tank, 2002). The
linear trend analysis revealed significant increases in the anticyclonic types, while
statistically significant negative trends have been found in many cyclonic types over the
Eastern Mediterranean in winter during 1958-2000 (Kostopoulou and Jones, 2007). The
2
Mediterranean Basin would also suffer a decrease in the overall cyclonic activity
(Martinez et al., 2010).
The decreasing of cyclones and the concomitant increasing of winter temperature well
have adverse effects and consequences on the water resources and supply over
Palestine. Kassomenos (2003) found a reduction in cyclonic activity and an increase in
anticyclonic activity in the central Mediterranean from late1980s and early 1990s during winter,
with enhanced anticyclonic activity over the Eastern Mediterranean since late1980s. Feidas et
al., (2004) reported insignificant trend of winter temperature in Greece for the period 19552001.
Temperature
11.0
10.0
Winter
9.0
8.0
7.0
Mean = 9.1
6.0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Figure 1. Jerusalem Winter
year Temperature during 1973-2007
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Winter
Annual
Linear
Trend
1.46
1.75
1.87
1.23
1.55
Corr.
0.345
0.514
0.517
0.324
0.495
Sig.
Level
0.042
0.002
0.002
0.057
0.003
Table 1. Jerusalem Seasonal and Annual Linear Trends
and The Significance Level (1973-2007).
Spring
Spring season shows a general decline of temperature from 1973 to around mid 1980s
similar to winter, though the cooling period ended much earlier (see Figures 1 and 2).
Spring temperature rises by statistically significant value of 1.46oC during 1973-2007
(Table 1). Temperature increased rapidly from mid 1980s by a linear trend of 2.76oC
(Table 2). Spring warming in the two period was relatively stronger than those of winter
3
(Tables 1 and 2). Linear trend indicate that Palestine spring temperature was warmed by
1.2oC during the 20th century, which was significant at 0.001 (El-Kadi, 2009).
Temperature
19.0
18.0
Spring
17.0
16.0
15.0
14.0
Mean = 15.4
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Figure 2. Jerusalem Spring Temperature trend (1973-2007).
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Annual
Linear Trend
2.25
2.76
2.83
2.79
2.70
Corr.
0.533
0.604
0.863
0.779
0.811
Sig. Level
0.009
0.002
0.000
0.000
0.000
Table 2. Jerusalem Seasonal and Annual Linear Trends and The
Significance Level (1985-2007).
Temperature
Summer
Summer temperature show similar tendency to those of spring. The warming from 1973
to 2007 was stronger, reach 1.75oC and statistically significant (Table 1). Summer
temperature characterized by rapid warming of 2.830C from mid 1980s onward (same as
spring), which was the highest level of warming in comparison to other seasons (Table
2). Summer temperature over Palestine showed a significant positive trend of 1.49oC
from 1980 onward (El-Kadi, 2009).
24.0
Summer
23.0
22.0
Mean = 22.8
21.0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Figure 3. Jerusalem Summer temperature Trend
4
The summer climate change over the Eastern Mediterranean is likely to be the only local
manifestation of much wider scale, long-term adjustment, of the tropical circulation
(Reddaway and Bigg, 1996) and in the period 1970-1988 during summer, there was
positive trend of most of the region with a maximum of 0.5 oC/10 years.
The probability of very hot summer days has increased threefold with temperatures
exceeding 35o C in Jerusalem (Adapting to climate Change in Israel, (Israel Environment
Bulletin, 2006:www.environment.gov.il).The largest warming projected over the 21st
century for the Mediterranean is likely to be in summer (IPCC, 2007). Owing to an
increase in mean summer temperature over central Europe, the probabilities of very
long heat waves have already risen over the recent 25 year during 1961-2006 (Kysel´y,
2010). Over the Eastern Mediterranean the temperature increases are larger in summer
than in winter (Evans, 2009).
In summer a significant positive pressure trend occurs in the Eastern and southeastern
parts of the Mediterranean (Feidas, et al., 2004). Over the whole countries of the
Middle East there was a sharp increases in the summer temperatures during 19512003 (Zhang et al., 2005).
Mean summer temperatures, already high in the Eastern Mediterranean region, and
projected to rise significantly by ~0.8–2.1°C in the 2020s. For the Mediterranean the
summer temperatures were higher in the 1990s and lower in the 1970s, In the Eastern
Mediterranean the warm summer air temperature is connected to blocking conditions,
subsidence and stability or and by ridge over eastern parts of the Mediterranean.
Though both modes are found to contribute to long-term summer temperature trends
during the second half of the 20th century (Xoplaki et al., 2003).
Autumn
Autumn temperature indicates the highest warming trend of 1.87oC in comparison to other
seasons (Table 1). The warming from mid 1980s onward (Figure 4) show strong positive trend of
2.8oC (Table 2). The warming of Jerusalem show similar tendency to Palestine autumn
temperature. Palestine positive trend of 1.2oC was found from 1980 onward and was
significant statistically at 0.01 (El-Kadi, 2009)
Temperature
22.0
21.0
Autumn
20.0
19.0
18.0
1970
Mean = 18.7
1980
1990
2000
2010
Figure 4. Jerusalem Autumn Temperature Trend
5
Annual
Annual temperature (Figure 5 ) show a decreasing trend to around late 1980s, followed by
intensifying statistically significant positive trend of 2.7oC onward (Table 2). The increases in the
number of warm days mainly occurred in the 1990s (Zhange et al., 2005), and run strongly to
2007 (see Figure 5). The linear trend for the whole period (1973-2007) indicates a warming
trend of 1.55oC. Jung et al.,( 2002), found an abrupt increase of South Korean temperature since
mid-1980s. The warming was intensified from about 1980s, which is similar and
consistent with those observed in the global temperature and in different countries
around the world. Significant part of this warming is likely due to anthropogenic
emissions of greenhouse gases (Moberg, et al., 2003, and IPCC, 2007).
Kysely (2002), reported that In the 1980s and 1990s unusually hot summer recurred
over continents of the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude and the severe heat waves
occurred in the 1990s in Prague (Czech Republic), this warming was continue into the
21st century. In the Northern Hemisphere the annual warming of 1985-2000 was about
three times more than the 1901-2000 warming, this warming trends are receiving much
attention in the global warming debate (Jones and Hulme, 1996).
Figure (6) indicates the warming trend of Palestine from around 1910 to 1940, the
temperature generally declined to around mid1980s. From mid1980s the temperature
increased rapidly to the end of the 20thcentury. The warming from mid1980s of
Jerusalem was generally similar to those of Palestine. The most consistent feature of the
analysis of southwest North America temperature was the post-1970s warming trends
(Englehart and Douglas, 2003).
Most of the observed warming over the last 50 years during the 20th century is likely to
be due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations (Houghton, et al., 2001; IPCC.,
2007) and, whereas the early century warming is usually regarded as a manifestation to
the natural effects (Meehl, 2004; IPCC, 2007) and recent climatic change could not be
explained by natural variability alone and was consistent with the response to
anthropogenic forcing (Hegerl, 2006).
19.0
Temperature
Temperature
Palestine (1900-2000)
18.0
Annual
17.0
16.0
1970
1980
1990
2000
19.0
18.0
Mean = 19.1
Mean = 16.5
15.0
20.0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
2010
Figure 6 Palestine Annual Temperature Trend
Figure 5 Jerusalem Annual Temperature Trend
6
Figure 7. Global Air Temperature 1840-2009 (www.cru.uea.ac.uk)
The late century warming was largely explained by greenhouse gases offset by the effect
of volcanic aerosol and the indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosols (Tett al., 2000).
The change point around 1985 (Figure 7), can signal important warming intensification
of the 1980s onward, well recognized in most central European temperature series
(Brazdil, et al., 1996).
The coldest years in the study period 1973-2007 was 1982-1983 and 1991-1992(Figure
5). Similar results was found in different stations over Palestine (Kafle and Bruins,
2009). The world was also cold during 1991-1992 following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo
(Jones, 1994). The last years 2001-2007 rank among the warmest years during 19732007 confirming the warming of the most recent years.
Concerning annual variations in the yearly average temperatures, all meteorological
stations show that 1982–1983 and 1991–1992 were the coolest years in Palestine during
recent decades.
Conclusion
The study of air temperature variability near the Earth’s surface presents certain
difficulties because of the complex land–sea distribution and the corresponding
complicated atmospheric circulation (Lolis and Bartzokas, 2001) Seasonally, the largest
warming is likely to be in northern Europe in winter and in the Mediterranean area
in summer and the annual precipitation is very likely to increase in most of northern
Europe and decrease in most of the Mediterranean area (IPCC, 2007). The
Mediterranean experienced a downward precipitation trend through the second half of
the twentieth century (Xoplaki et al., 2004). In the last 40 years all the Mediterranean
stations are in line with global warming (Camuffo et al., 2010).
Jerusalem long-term warming during the study period was 1.55oC (1973-2007). The
warming was intensified during the last 23 years to reach 2.7oC (1985-2007).
7
The warming was nearly around 1.8oC for both summer and autumn, while winter was
the least warmed season in the 1973-2007. The results agreed with model projection,
that the rise in temperature for winter is lower than for summer. It may simply suggest
that it’s much harder to detect a significant trend in winter due to higher variability in
that season (Zhang et al., 2005).
The seasonal trend increased rapidly in the period 1985-2007. Spring, summer and
Autumn temperature rose by approximately 2.8oC during 1985-2007, and the highest
trend was for summer. The rise of autumn temperature is higher than for spring. The
result confirms the model projection for climate change over the Eastern Mediterranean
regions, that the temperature change in autumn is larger than that of spring due to the
fact that the summer season extends into autumn season under the climate change
conditions O¨ Nol and Semazzi (2009).
Therefore the warming since 1985 was generally twice than for the whole period (19732007). That the climate has become more arid in most parts of the area(Kafle and
Bruins, 2009), this implies a tendency for northward shifts of the desert lines. Global
climate model simulation predict that the largest change however is a decrease in
precipitation that occurs in an area covering the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey, Syria
and Northern Iraq (Evans, 2009). That increasing temperature may shift the cyclone
path northward, reducing precipitation in the southeastern Mediterranean.
Therefore, the surface and groundwater resources might be reduced by 5–15%, and in
fact the baseline scenario predicts a drop in per capita water resources of around 50% for
the Eastern Mediterranean by 2025 (Bou-Zeid and El-Fadel 2002)
Hegerl, et al., (2007), concluded that greenhouse gas forcing is the dominant cause of
warming during the past several decades. The widespread nature of the warming
reduces the possibility that the warming could have resulted from internal variability,
no known mode of internal variability leads to such widespread, near universal warming
as has been observed in the past few decades.
There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50
years is attributable to human activity, and both the temperature and the sea-level are
projected to continue rise throughout the twenty-first century (Griggs and Noguer,
2002, and Allen, 2002). An increasing rate of warming over the world has taken place
over the last 25 years, and 11 of the 12 warmest years on record have occurred in the
past 12 years (Trenberth, et al., 2007).
Model simulation of the temperature responses to natural and anthropogenic forcing
indicated that the most recent warming of the last century was the response to the
anthropogenic forcing related to increase level of the greenhouse gases (IPCC, 2001;
Bertrand and van Ypersele, 2002; Bertrand et al., 2002; Karoly and Wu, 2005; Hegerl,
2006). A recent assessment by the intergovernmental panel on climate change
concluded that the Earth’s climate would be 2–6oC warmer than in the pre-industrial era
by the end of the twenty-first century, due to human-induced increases in greenhouse
gases (Mitchell et al.,2006). The warming since mid1980 is coincide with the drought
condition over Gaza Strip (El-Kadi, 2001), as well as over the whole area of Palestine (ElKadi, 2007).
8
Model Projection for future climate change over Palestine suggest that the anticipated
impact of climate change would lead to:
1) Reduction of at least 25% in water availabiliy by the end of the 21st century.
2) A 10 cm rise in sea level may lead to coastline retreat of 2-10 meters and a lost of
0.2-2 square kilometers of coast evey 10 years.
3) Incrase of mosquito population and their distribution may increase the risk of disease.
4) Damage to crops due to decrease in water availability and 20% increase in water
demand
5) Migration of Mediterranean species northward and their replacement by desert
ecosystems from the Negev.
However, quantifying and understanding climatic changes at the regional scale is one of
the most important and uncertain issues within the global change debate Xoplaki et al.,
(2003).
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