Business Case and Intervention Summary Intervention Summary Title: Review studies to address knowledge gaps on zoonoses What support will the UK provide? DFID will provide up to £220,000 for the period from December 2011 to May 2012 to fund three systematic studies on zoonoses. Why is UK support required? Why do we need these studies? Occurrences of either known or new and emerging zoonoses (i.e. animal diseases naturally transmitted to people) may be unpredictable and counterintuitive. Research gaps remain significant and may contribute to an emergence and/or a rapid spread of zoonoses. Addressing these gaps is vital in order to gain a better understanding of the risk factors which favour persistence or re-emergence of zoonotic pathogens, and their socio-economic impact. It will highlight importance of zoonoses and help to shape innovative approaches to future medium to long-term strategic research planning and policies related to zoonotic diseases, and their management in developing countries. DFID stakeholders strategic planning meetings on zoonoses have brought together a range of technical and policy experts from more than 25 organisations (i.e. government, institutional and research) from the UK and internationally to discuss research needs to aid their early detection and control. The experts concluded that poor populations in developing countries who live in close proximity with animals have a higher level of reliance on animals for their survival and livelihoods also bear the highest burden of zoonoses. At the same time, the experts concluded that significant knowledge gaps continue to exist, some of which need urgent attention. These are primarily related to differences and deficiencies in zoonoses research and policies at local, national, regional and global level, and the abilities of developing countries to identify and manage zoonoses. What we will do? To address the identified knowledge gaps, DFID will commission the following three short-term studies to generate evidence which will facilitate medium to long term research and policy planning for zoonoses in developing countries: a) Mapping of poverty and likely zoonoses hotspots – The objective of this study is to provide evidence on where (globally) the risk to the poor from zoonoses is greatest. It will provide evidence to help inform future policies and programming on the appropriate target locations for research implementation and uptake, based on greatest risk. b) Collating examples of policies, institutions and stakeholders involved in managing the risks of zoonoses – The objective of this study is to provide evidence on which types of institutions have been involved in managing the risks of zoonoses, how they have achieved their aims where successful, and what barriers have prevented success. It will provide evidence to help prioritise research questions and geographical focus for future policies and programming, based on knowledge of the potential to influence behaviours of stakeholders in managing animal diseases in emerging livestock systems. c) Prioritising the need for new diagnostics or treatments of zoonoses which have significant impact in the developing world – The objective of this study is to collate information on existing diagnostics and treatments for livestock, with the aim being to provide evidence of where there may be opportunities for rapid progress or gaps in research on significant zoonoses. It will provide evidence to help development of new interventions for the benefit of poor communities. Who will be implementing these studies? In line with Research and Evidence Divisions procurement policies and guidelines, we will send an Invitation to Tender (ITT) to a number of targeted research institutions and organisations to see whether they are interested in undertaking the studies. Once the proposals have been recieved, DFID will assess each against relevant criteria and will select a successful bidder for each study in December 2011. Successful applicants will in turn sign a contract with DFID to carry out these studies and will have an inception meeting with DFID within 2-4 week following the signing of contracts. What are the expected results? What will change as a result of our support? By commissioning these studies, DFID will provide new evidence to inform the way national and international zoonoses programmes and policies are designed and implemented in order to directly benefit the livelihoods of poor livestock keepers, including their health. The evidence will enable a better understanding of the risk factors which favour persistence or re-emergence of zoonotic diseases and their socio-economic impact on animal and public health. The studies will also form an integral part of DFID’s contribution to the UK Global Food Security Programme (Theme 3 - Sustainable Food production & Supply). This programme was established by UK multi-agencies in 2010 to address the global food security challenges. What are the planned outputs attributable to DFID’s support? The studies will generate the following outputs which will be made publicly available to researchers, policy makers and funders: a) Up to date maps of poverty, livestock and potential zoonoses hotspots, supplemented by additional information on areas of rapid change – encompassing demographic and lifestyle change and change in numbers and types of livestock system, including interaction with wildlife. b) An easily accessible meta-database of examples of policies, institutions and stakeholders involved in managing the risks of zoonoses. This database will be hosted on, and integrated into the successful bidder own external website. c) Up to date evidence on existing diagnostics and treatments for the livestock of poor people to that could add most value to managing the risk of zoonotic disease in emerging livestock systems. How we will determine whether the expected results have been achieved? DFID will review the final draft reports of each study by 31 March 2011, and will provide comments as necessary. We will share the draft reports with our stakeholders (e.g. World Organisation for Animal Health, World Health Organisation, Food and Agriculture Organisation, UK Research Councils) for their views and feedback. The final reports should be received by 30 April 2012 and will be made publicly available on DFID’s external website. Business Case Strategic Case A. Context and need for a DFID intervention Context Over 600 million people are estimated to be dependent on livestock, with up to 70% of them in poor, rural areas. They are the most at risk for infectious diseases caused by zoonotic pathogens, which affect both animals and humans. Developing countries face difficulties in sustainably utilising tools to effectively implement control measures for zoonoses. This is mainly due to dispersed and heterogeneous smallholder livestock systems, predominance of informal markets, poor infrastructure and lack of resources to deliver information, interventions, and regulations(1). Developing countries lack an evidence base for planning and targeting control efforts(1) due to little knowledge of zoonotic causes of human disease by clinicians and policy makers, fragmentary data collection systems collected independently and recorded and reported separately, lack of diagnostic capacities and reliable qualitative and quantitative data on zoonotic diseases burden in affected countries and lack of diagnostic capacity beyond referral hospitals and reference laboratories(2). DFID stakeholders’ strategic research planning meetings, held between December 2009 and May 2011, considered the current state of research, innovations and trends that can help identify and test targeted control strategies for zoonoses tailored to poor communities, focusing particularly on developing countries. The stakeholders highlighted that significant research gaps still remain in technical and policy areas. This may contribute to emergence and/or a rapid spread of zoonoses, which may be unpredictable and counterintuitive. There is consensus at international level that major progress in the research on the reduction of health risks to and impact of zoonoses on poor people and their livestock in the medium to long-term, will require a range of disciplines working together (e.g. biological science, environmental science, mathematical sciences, public health and animal health sciences and the social sciences). This will be a step-change to the traditional bio-medical approach in order to promote necessary intervention research on zoonotic diseases of poor populations. Why these studies are needed? These studies will set the necessary basis for use of inter- and multi-disciplinary approaches to address gaps and generate evidence to aid strategic research and selection of risk based and costeffective prevention and control options which may contribute to decreasing the likelihood of occurrence, prevent the transmission and reduce the impact of major zoonotic diseases in developing countries. These gaps primarily relate to absence of relevant and timely evidence with regard to (i) spatial distribution of the burden of zoonoses and linking these with livestock systems in developing 1 Schelling, E., Grace, D., Willingham III, A.L. and Randolph, T. 2007. Research approaches for improved propoor control of zoonoses. Food and Nutrition Bulletin (Japan):S345-S356. 2 WHO-TDR. 2001. Research priorities identified for zoonoses. (http://apps.who.int/tdr/svc/newsevents/news/zoonoses-research). countries, (ii) consolidated evidence on successful policies and management of zoonotic diseases, and (iii) consolidated evidence on the existing interventions for zoonotic diseases. What these studies are going to address? The studies will: a) Review and update existing knowledge on poverty and zoonoses hotspots at the interface between animals, people and wildlife. b) Review existing knowledge, both published and those that may be available from offices of FAO, OIE and WHO and, as appropriate, to capture examples of countries/regions where the risk of zoonoses has been successfully managed. c) Review published knowledge and conduct interviews to list existing diagnostics and treatments (including good management practices) for animals and where appropriate wildlife and to identify research questions, answers to which could aid management of the risk. Addressing these short-term research gaps will generate evidence to assist (i) effective decision and policy making for zoonoses detection and control, and (ii) the development of innovative inter- and multi-disciplinary approaches to future research and policy planning in medium to long-term to address zoonotic diseases and mitigate their impact on poor communities. How these studies will support DFID strategy policy objectives? The studies are consistent with the current DFID Structural Reform Plan and RED research results offer. It supports DFID’s objective to continue to invest in providing high quality research and evidence into cost effective and innovative approaches aimed at protecting poor people’s health, livelihoods and increasing their income. It also supports DFID’s agriculture research priorities paper in terms of high technical challenge and addressing the context. The studied will facilitate development of medium to long-term and sustainable approaches to zoonoses at technical and policy levels and will contribute towards the attainment of a number of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in developing countries, particularly in Africa and Asia. The programme is fully consistent with MDG 6 (Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other diseases) with the potential to contribute to MDG 1, 3, 7 and 8. These studies will form an integral part of DFID’s contribution to the UK Global Food Security (GFS) Programme (Theme 3 - Sustainable Food production & Supply), which was established by UK multiagencies in 2010 to address the global food security challenge. B. Impact and Outcome that we expect to achieve It is estimated that some 1.4 billion people continue to live in extreme poverty on less than US$1.25 a day (IFAD, 2011). More than two thirds of them reside in rural areas of developing countries. Their living conditions remain poor, and they depend fully or partly on livestock for their livelihoods. Zoonotic diseases (i.e. animal diseases that naturally transmitted to people) have the highest impact on poor people’s health in developing countries and the health of their livestock as the most common source of their food security and livelihoods. The proportion of zoonotic diseases is more than 13 times higher in developing countries than developed countries (ILRI/RVC, 2011). The impact of zoonoses on the livelihoods and lives of poor livestock keepers will continue to be severe if gaps in existing knowledge on critical factors for their occurrence are not addressed in a systematic manner to ensure strategic approach to research and evidence-based inputs into policy making and management of zoonoses. The main outcome of these studies is to generate evidence, which will be made publicly available and will consist of: d) Up to date maps of poverty, livestock and potential zoonoses hotspots, supplemented by additional information on areas of rapid change – encompassing demographic and lifestyle change and change in numbers and types of livestock system, including interaction with wildlife. e) An easily accessible meta-database of examples of policies, institutions and stakeholders involved in managing the risks of zoonoses. This database will be hosted on, and integrated into the successful bidder own external website. f) Up to date evidence on existing diagnostics and treatments for the livestock of poor people to that could add most value to managing the risk of zoonotic disease in emerging livestock systems. Appraisal Case A. What are the feasible options that address the need set out in the Strategic case? In assessing the available options, we set the following critical success criteria (CSC): a) Quality, skills and experience of the proposed team, availability and certainty of obtaining named individuals with quality track record in research b) Understanding of, and adherence to, the terms of reference of the work c) The methodological approach proposed d) Ability to deliver to the timescale required e) Clarity of bid f) Quality in presenting and disseminating findings to shape future research needs g) Value for Money; financial planning, linkage of payment to outputs We have considered the following options against the CSC’s above: a) Option 1 - direct contracting without any competition – although there are a limited number of organisations that are capable of undertaking the studies, this approach would not be consistent with DFID good practice. In addition, by going directly to one supplier we may not necessarily maximise value for money or get the best end product b) Option 2 – combination of direct contracting and limited competition – by combining these two approaches we encourage limited competition amongst the key academic institutions capable of undertaking this assignment, as well as going back to the original author to update an existing publication. This approach ensures that we achieve value for money and minimise the transaction costs associated with assessing multiple bids from organisations who are not capable of undertaking the studies c) Option 3 – full competitive process competition – given that studies are of limited scale, this approach would involve high transaction costs for the department and add very little value for money. In addition, as one of the studies being conducted is the refresh of an existing publication, it would not be appropriate from a value for money or technical perspective to go to competition for this. Establish the “Do Nothing” counterfactual Given the DFID’s commitment and time devoted to planning meetings over the past two years, there will be a reputational risk to DFID if these studies are not undertaken to address significant knowledge gaps on zoonoses as identified by national and international stakeholders. These studies are innovative in addressing research gaps on zoonoses and have not been done before and DFID will miss an opportunity to continue to be a significant player in helping the future research and policy planning on zoonoses in developing countries. DFID will also miss an opportunity where strategic and a relatively low level of investment could significantly contribute to mitigating the risks of zoonotic diseases and reducing potential for significant costs (often measured in UK£ tens of millions to hundreds of millions) associated with their control, particularly in developing countries. B. Assessing the strength of the evidence base for each feasible option In the table below the quality of evidence for each option is rated as either Strong, Medium or Limited Option 1 2 3 Evidence rating Limited – not consistent with DFID’s good practices Strong – consistent with DFID’s good practice on appropriate use of resources Limited – very little value for money On this basis we have decided that Option 2 is the preferred option to undertake. We set out the Theory of Change which underpins our evidence ratings. a) Input DFID contribution of up to £220,000 to fund three new studies b) Process (Activities) Agree ToR for the studies Send out Invitation to Tender (ITT) Pack Receive applications by the set deadline Applications received and assessed Successful applications selected Contracts awarded c) Outputs Three studies completed Final reports approved d) Outcome (Purpose) New evidence available to identify future research questions and planning related to zoonoses, their occurrence, prevention and cost effective management in changing natural and socio-economic environments. e) Impact (Goal) DFID’s investment supports research which contributes to mitigating the impact of zoonoses on poor people, their livestock and livelihoods What is the likely impact (positive and negative) on climate change and environment for each feasible option? Categorise as A, high potential risk / opportunity; B, medium / manageable potential risk / opportunity; C, low / no risk / opportunity; or D, core contribution to a multilateral organisation. Option Climate change and environment risks Climate change and environment and impacts, Category (A, B, C, D) opportunities, Category (A, B, C, D) C C C C C C 1 2 3 This intervention is being launched as an ancillary to another called:”Zoonoses and Emerging Livestock Systems (ZELS): reducing the risk to livestock and people”. Given that the activities foreseen as part of this intervention are included in the scope of the aforementioned one, the same analysis of Climate and Environment related impacts, risks and opportunities is being used. However, the scoring has been slightly revised downwards because the activities that will be undertaken as part of this intervention are expected to present a slightly lower level of opportunities. This intervention is unlikely to have any negative impacts or to involve any potential risks for either the environment or climate. On the other hand, the nature of the subject of the research proposed presents some good opportunities to improve environmental stewardship and contribute to increasing adaptation and resilience to climate change in a number of developing countries. These opportunities are derived from the close relationship and connections that exist between zoonotic disease, environmental management and transformation and climate change. Evidence from scientific research suggests that the combined effects of environmentally detrimental changes in local land use and alterations in global climate disrupt the natural ecosystem and can increase the risk of transmission of parasitic diseases to the human population (Patz et al., 2000(1)). The same evidence shows that there are also clear and direct linkages between the emergence of outbreaks in zoonotic diseases and a number of natural and anthropogenic environmental changes, including the destruction of natural habitats of animal hosts and climatic changes due to global warming. Ecological disturbances in particular have been identified to exert an influence on the emergence and proliferation of zoonotic parasitic diseases, such as: leishmaniasis, trypanosomiasis, schistosomiasis and onchocerciasis. A number of human activities including: changes in land use such as deforestation and the replacement of forests with crop farming, ranching and human settlement; road construction; and water control systems (i.e. dams, canals, irrigation systems, reservoirs) can also create supportive habitats for parasites and their host vectors, which can contribute to the spreading of zoonotic diseases (Patz et al., 2000(3); WHO/FAO/OIE, 2004(4)). Climate change is another crucial factor in the emergence and spread of existing and new zoonotic diseases, this is because the complex nature of the human-animal interface is constantly influenced by its effects. Climate change is disrupting natural ecosystems by providing more suitable environments for infectious diseases allowing disease-causing bacteria, viruses, and fungi to move into new areas where they may harm wild life and domestic species, as well as humans. Diseases that were previously limited only to tropical areas are now spreading to other previously cooler areas. As the climate warms and/or the winters get milder, pathogens that were restricted by seasonal weather patterns can invade new areas and find new susceptible species. There is also evidence that the increasing occurrence of tropical infectious diseases in the mid latitudes is linked to global 3 Patz, J.A., T.K. Graczyk, N. Geller, and A.Y. Vittor, 2000: Effects of environmental change on emerging parasitic diseases, International Journal of Parasitology, 30, pp. 1395–405. 4 WHO/FAO/OIE. (2004). Report of the WHO/FAO/OIE Joint Consultation on Emerging Zoonotic Diseases. 3-5 May 2004, Geneva, Switzerland. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), World Health Organization (WHO), and World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE). warming. Insect-borne diseases are now present in temperate areas where the vector insects were non existent in the past e.g. trypanosomosis, anaplasmosis (Preneshni R. Naicker, 2011(5)). Geo-climatic changes tend to affect zoonotic diseases transmitted by arthropod vectors in particular, whilst travel, tourism and trade are the major human factors favouring the spread of zoonotic diseases. The re-emergence of zoonotic diseases is also driven by pathogen adaptation and wildanimal migration, which can also be influenced by changes in climatic patterns. Although some zoonotic diseases such as West Nile fever and Lyme disease can also spread to developed countries, the effects of climate change are predicted to be worse for the developing world where challenging socioeconomic and political environments are exacerbated by a lack of epidemiological studies on zoonotic diseases (Preneshni R. Naicker, 2011(3)). Social and behavioural responses can help control vector-borne disease while also improving other ecosystem services. Public health education forms an increasingly important component of management programs and initiatives, raising awareness about individual and communal actions that may control vectors, their breeding sites, prevent disease transmission, and provide access to treatment. (FAO, 2002(6); FAO, 20037; WHO/FAO/OIE, 2004(2)). The proposed research programme promises to tackle these issues directly, hence the clear opportunities in terms of enhancing adaptation responses and resilience to this important impact of climate change. C. What are the costs and benefits of each feasible option? We have discussed and agreed with DFID procurement Department that Option 1 is not consistent with DFID’s good practices for procurement, and that Option 3 would involve high transaction costs which would be disproportionate to the costs of the studies. D. What measures can be used to assess Value for Money for the intervention? Several studies have highlighted significant costs associated with outbreaks of zoonotic diseases, particularly new and emerging. For example, it is estimated that the direct costs of recent zoonoses outbreaks were US$400 million for Nipah virus in Malaysia, and US$50-120 million for SARS globally (The World Bank, 2010(8)). In 2007, Uganda estimated to have spent US$17million (international dollars) and Vietnam US$67 million in designing systems to response to emerging and re-emerging animal diseases (Civic Consulting, 2009(9)). These costs indicate the seriousness of the issue of zoonoses. It is expected that these studies will help steer cost-effective research which should significantly enhance the 5 Preneshni R. Naicker (2011) The impact of climate change and other factors on zoonotic diseases; in ARCHIVES OF CLINICAL MICROBIOLOGY Vol. 2 No. 2:4 6 FAO (2002). Improving national animal-health policies and delivery systems. Chapter 4, In: Improved animal health for poverty reduction and sustainable livelihoods. FAO Animal Production and Health Papers; 153. 7 FAO (2003). Veterinary public health and control of zoonoses in Developing Countries. Summary of comments and discussion from the FAO/WHO/OIE electronic conference. FAO, Rome. 8 The World Bank, 2010. People, Pathogens and Our Planet. Volume 1: Towards a One Health Approach for Controlling Zoonotic Diseases. The World Bank. (http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTARD/Resources/PPP_Web.pdf) 9 Civic Consulting, 2009. Cost of National Prevention Systems for Animal Diseases and Zoonoses in Developing and Transition Countries. (http://www.oie.int/eng/OIEWB_Conference_1007/en_Global_Animal Health_Initiative.htm) effectiveness of such investments. E. Summary Value for Money Statement for the preferred option Option 2 - combination of direct contracting and limited competition ensures that we will achieve value for money and minimise the transaction costs associated with assessing multiple bids from organisations which are not capable of undertaking the studies. Commercial Case Direct procurement A. Clearly state the procurement/commercial requirements for intervention As per DFID’s Research and Evidence Divisions procurement guidelines and procedures, we are going through a targeted mini competitive process (Option 2) for 2 of the 3 studies being commissioned. We will go directly to the original authors for the third study. B. How does the intervention design use competition to drive commercial advantage for DFID? For the 2 studies we have gone to mini-competition to ensure that the preferred bid offers both a strong technical and commercial proposal for the work. The third study is the update of an existing publication, so we have decided to contract the original authors directly, instead of starting the work from the scratch with a new supplier. As part of the programme appraisal process, significant attention will paid to the commercial proposal with our procurement department undertaking rigorous analysis to ensure that value for money is achieved from the outset and that where possible immediate savings identified on fee rates etc. C. How do we expect the market place will respond to this opportunity? For the 2 studies we have identified a number of suppliers who might be interested in undertaking the assignments. Early indications are that most of the suppliers contacted will formally respond to the ITT in a positive manner. D. What are the key cost elements that affect overall price? How is value added and how will we measure and improve this? The key cost element for this type of studies will relate to the availability of quality researchers with the requisite skills required to undertake the work. As this work will be undertaken in the UK, the main costs will relate to fee rates. The commercial proposal received will include a detailed breakdown of costs on a monthly basis for the four months required to fully complete the work. As part of the evaluation process it is important that the bids received represent the most cost effective way to meet the overall objectives of the programme. Bidders are expected to demonstrate how they have taken value for money into account in their budget as well as in managing any subsequent sub-contractors. E. What is the intended Procurement Process to support contract award? In accordance with DFID’s procurement procedures and regulations, DFID will issue an Invitation to Tended (ITT) to all identified potential suppliers. Interested suppliers will have 4 weeks to respond with a proposal, which will in turn be assessed against set DFID criteria. Once successful suppliers are identified, RED’s procurement team will issue a contract on our behalf. F. How will contract & supplier performance be managed through the life of the intervention? DFID’s Lead Advisor and Programme Manager will be responsible for the day to day management of the studies. DFID will have an inception meeting with all successful applicants within 2-4 week following the signing of contracts. Initial payment will be made on receipt and acceptance of the draft report. The subsequent and final payment will be made on receipt and acceptance of the final report. Indirect procurement A. Why is the proposed funding mechanism/form of arrangement the right one for this intervention, with this development partner? N/A B. Value for money through procurement N/A Financial Case A. What are the costs, how are they profiled and how will you ensure accurate forecasting? The total combined cost of the 3 studies is up to £220,000. Once the bids have been received, appraised and contract awarded, DFID will work with our implementing partners to ensure accurate financial forecasting. We will use the budget submitted as part of the procurement process as a starting point for this discussion on monthly forecasting. B. How will it be funded: capital/programme/admin? Funds for this programme will come from DFID’s programme budget. C. How will funds be paid out? Funds will be paid out in arrears on receipt of a draft report scheduled to be recieved by 31 March 2012. Subsequent and final payment will be made on receipt of the final report which is due to be recieved by 30 April 2012. D. What is the assessment of financial risk and fraud? The risk of fiduciary risk and fraud is considered to be low. Our implementing partners will be UK or reputable academic institutions, who are well governed and managed in accordance with robust management and audit procedures. E. How will expenditure be monitored, reported, and accounted for? Payments will be made in arrears based on receipt of the draft and final report. The dates for these reports are 31 March 2012 and 30 April 2012 respectively. Management Case A. What are the Management Arrangements for implementing the intervention? DFID’s Lead Advisor and Programme Manager will oversee the day to day implementation of the studies. We will also draw on our Senior Research Fellow as and when required. In early 2012 we will seek to establish a Steering Group to help oversee the implementation of the studies. B. What are the risks and how these will be managed? Given the relatively low value of the contracts let, the main risk associated with the 3 studies is around timely delivery of the end product. We have mitigated against this risk by ensuring payments are linked to the delivery of outputs. C. What conditions apply (for financial aid only)? N/A D. How will progress and results be monitored, measured and evaluated? DFID will work with the Steering Group to ensure the end products are fit for purpose and help meet the needs of policy makers and inform future DFID programming on zoonoses. We will measure and evaluate the results through the development of the future DFID programme in terms of the bids received and further studies commissioned. Logframe Quest No of logframe for this intervention: