Table 1: Quantitative emission targets for 2020 submitted at Cancun under the Copenhagen Accord
Greenhouse Gases Emissions (GT CO2-eq)
Country
Pledge at COP15
Australia
Belarus
Canada
-5%, -15% to -25% wrt 2000
-5% / '-10% wrt 1990
-17% wrt 2005
Croatia
Euro 27
Iceland
Japan
Kazakhstan
New Zealand
Norway
Russian Federation
Switzerland
Turkey
Ukraine
United States
Brazil
-5% wrt 1990
-20% / -30% wrt 1990
-30% wrt 1990
-25% wrt 1990
-15% wrt 1992
-10% to -20% wrt 1990
-30% / -40% wrt 1990
-15% / -25% wrt 1990
-20% / -30% wrt 1990
BaU
-20% wrt 1990
-17% wrt 2005
-0.97 / -1.05 GtCO2-eq wrt BaU
Excluding LULUCF
LULUCF
Copenhagen Pledges
Total
Target
wrt 1990 (% )
wrt 2005 (% )
wrt BaU (% )
1990
2005
2020
1990
2005
2020
1990
2005
2020
LC
HC
LC
HC
LC
HC
LC
HC
0.42
0.14
0.59
0.53
0.08
0.73
0.62
0.10
0.83
0.02
0.00
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.04
0.01
0.00
0.04
0.44
0.14
0.62
0.54
0.09
0.77
0.63
0.10
0.88
0.48
0.13
0.65
0.37
0.13
0.65
11%
-6%
6%
-15%
-11%
6%
-11%
56%
-16%
-32%
48%
-16%
-23%
29%
-26%
-41%
22%
-26%
0.03
5.57
0.00
1.27
0.36
0.06
0.05
3.32
0.05
0.19
0.03
5.12
0.00
1.35
0.24
0.08
0.05
2.12
0.05
0.33
0.04
6.13
0.00
1.54
0.26
0.09
0.06
2.31
0.06
0.40
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.03
5.59
0.00
1.29
0.36
0.06
0.05
3.38
0.05
0.19
0.03
5.13
0.00
1.38
0.24
0.08
0.05
2.16
0.05
0.33
0.04
6.15
0.00
1.57
0.26
0.09
0.06
2.32
0.06
0.40
0.03
4.47
0.00
0.98
0.31
0.06
0.03
2.83
0.04
0.40
0.03
3.91
0.00
0.98
0.31
0.05
0.03
2.50
0.04
0.40
-5%
-20%
-30%
-24%
-16%
-9%
-32%
-16%
-23%
115%
-5%
-30%
-30%
-24%
-16%
-19%
-42%
-26%
-32%
115%
-2%
-13%
-36%
-29%
29%
-28%
-36%
31%
-22%
22%
-2%
-24%
-36%
-29%
29%
-36%
-46%
16%
-31%
22%
-20%
-27%
-44%
-38%
18%
-37%
-44%
22%
-32%
--
-20%
-36%
-44%
-38%
18%
-44%
-52%
8%
-40%
--
0.93
6.11
0.72
0.42
7.10
1.11
0.52
8.23
1.53
0.00
0.07
0.89
0.00
0.03
1.45
0.00
0.00
1.13
0.93
6.18
1.61
0.42
7.13
2.56
0.52
8.23
2.66
0.74
5.90
1.68
0.74
5.90
1.61
-20%
-5%
4%
-20%
-5%
0%
75%
-17%
-34%
75%
-17%
-37%
44%
-28%
-37%
44%
-28%
-40%
179% 179%
37%
37%
--
--
China
reduce carbon intensity of output by 40-45% wrt3.72
2005
7.61
10.75
0.04
0.03
-0.28
3.76
7.64
10.47
10.47 10.47
India
reduce carbon intensity of output by 20-25% wrt1.33
2005
2.05
2.59
0.05
0.04
0.01
1.38
2.09
2.60
2.60
2.60
89%
89%
24%
24%
--
--
0.73
0.61
0.44
0.67
1.13
0.84
0.51
0.79
0.41
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.84
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.49
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.86
0.48
0.35
0.30
1.57
0.65
0.44
0.67
1.62
0.87
0.51
0.79
1.20
0.82
0.34
0.55
0.96
0.61
0.34
0.55
40%
71%
-2%
84%
12%
27%
-2%
84%
-24%
26%
-23%
-18%
-39%
-6%
-23%
-18%
-26%
-6%
-34%
-30%
-41%
-30%
-34%
-30%
Indonesia
Mexico
South Africa
South Korea
-26% / -41% wrt BaU
-51 Mt CO2-eq / -30% wrt BaU
-34% wrt BaU
-30% wrt BaU
0.45
0.45
0.34
0.30
Source: Calculations based on Business as Usual (BaU) scenarios of the WITCH model prepared for the The Emission Gap Report, United Nations Environment Program; adjustments were made when countries are not
individually represented in the WITCH model .
Table 2: Target starting points for the 12 modeled regions (the case of 500 ppm goal)
EU
USA
Australia, S.Africa & S.Korea
Japan, Canada & NZ
TE
LAM
India
EASIA
SASIA
CHINA
SSA
MENA
2020
30% below 1990 emissions
17% below 2005
34% below baseline
30% below 2005
BAU
BAU
BAU
BAU
BAU
BAU
BAU
BAU
2050
50% below 1990
83% below 2005
50% below baseline
65% below 2005
Cap based on formula in 2055
Cap based on formula in 2040
BAU (cap based on formula, from 2060)
BAU (cap based on formula, from 2060)
BAU
Cap based on formula in 2050
BAU
Cap based on formula in 2065
Table 3: Present discounted value of cost region by region (as percent of income)
3a: Measured relative to alternative baseline of no international policy
(i.e., BAU criterion)
USA
EU
0.6%
0.2%
KoSAu
CaJaZ
0.7%
0.7%
TE
1.2%
MENA
2.2%
SSA
-0.1%
SAsia
-0.2%
China
1.1%
EAsia
0.1%
LAm
India
0.5%
0.4%
3b: Measured relative to the alternative of unilateral dropping out
while others continue to cooperate (i.e., Nash criterion)
USA
EU
KoSAu
CaJaZ
TE
MENA
SSA
SAsia
China
EAsia
LAm
India
0.7%
0.3%
0.8%
0.6%
0.8%
0.8%
-0.1%
0.1%
1.0%
0.4%
0.4%
0.7%
Table A1: Estimation of Progressivity
Cancun emission target cuts, expressed relative to BAU,
regressed against income per capita
(21 country observations, counting EU27 as one)
Countries submitting negative cuts relative to BAU are:
taken at face value
Intercept
γ
set = 0
Intercept
γ
Coefficient estimate
0.018
-0.162
0.008
-0.130
Standard error
0.065
0.043
0.050
0.034
t-statistic
0.07
-3.72
0.16
-3.87
P value
0.789
0.001
0.878
0.001
R2
0.421
0.441
Table A2: Estimation of progressivity and latecomer catch-up factors
Dependent variable:
(lnTarget 2020 – lnBAU 2020 )
Coef.
Std.
Err.
ln income per capita
ln emissions2007 -lnBAU2020
ln emissions2007 - ln emissions1990
Constant term
-0.156
0.376
-0.328
1.384
0.031 -5.07
0
0.100 3.76 0.002
0.091 -3.58 0.002
0.300 4.62
0
t
P>t
.
df
Number of
observations
Source
SS
F ( 3, 17)
13.02
Model
1.092
3
Prob > F
0.0001
Residual
0.475
17
R2
Adj
Total
1.567
20
21
0.697
R2
0.643
Root MSE
0.167
[95% Conf.
Interval]
-0.22
0.16
-0.52
0.75
-0.09
0.59
-0.13
2.02