TERI, New Delhi

Scope

• Unregistered vehicles
• Overloading
• Limited maintenance

• Contribution of vehicular sector
• Which vehicles for which pollutants
• Road map for future norms
• Effect on air quality

Are the current BS norms enough to meet air quality standards ?
Do we need to continually advance them ?
What is the effect of introducing better quality fuel in India and its cities ?
10

TERI integrated modelling approach
Met.
Modelling
(WRF)
Energy
Modeling
(MARKAL
)
Emission
Modeling
(GAINS)
Air
Quality
Modeling
(CMAQ)
Future predictio ns
Impacts
Objective : To study the impact of improvement of fuel quality and vehicular emission norms in India on the ambient air quality, and subsequently on the human health
Sumit Sharma, Suresh Jain, C Sitalakshami, Richa Mahtta, Anju Goel, Atul Kumar, Divya
Datt, Seema Kundu, Prateek Sharma , TERI, New Delhi

Vehicle-wise energy consumption and projections
(2010-2030)
12

Scenario analysis
Scenario
BAU
ALT-I
ALT-II
ALT-III
ALT-IV
Description
Based on the current plans and policies of the government without any further intervention. BS-III all across the country and BS-IV in 13 cities
Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015
Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2020
Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-V in 2020
Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-VI in 2020
13

Effect of advancement of vehicular emission norms
Scenario
BAU
ALT-I
ALT-II
ALT-III
ALT-IV
Description
Based on the current plans and policies of the government without any further intervention. BS-III all across the country and BS-IV in 13 cities
Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015
Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2020
Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-V in 2020
Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-VI in 2020

Reduction in PM2.5 conc. (ALT-IV-2030)
15

Avoided mortalities- ALT-IV scenario
16

Benefits could be larger ..
• Health impacts of only PM
• NOx, CO, VOCs and O3 may additionally or synergistically aggravate the impacts
• Agricultural impacts of Ozone and other pollutants
• Climate benefits are additional
• Reduction in PM will reduce black carbon concentrations too
17

City level analysis
SumitSharma, V. Ramanathan
• Aim- To assess the improvement in air quality due to interventions in transport sector
• City: Bangalore
• Air quality model – CMAQ
• Emission inventory – Source apportionment study (2x2 km²)
• PM, NOx, CO, SO2, VOCs
• Meteorological fields – WRF models runs
• Boundary conditions- from National scale runs
• Period – December, 2010 (to assess worst season air quality)
18

Emission Inventory – Source apportionment study
PM10
• Total pollution load
Construction
14%
Hotel
0%
• PM
10
- 54.4 T/d Transport
42%
• NO
X
– 217.4 T/d
Industry
14%
DG Set
7%
• SO
2
– 14.6 T/d Domestic
3%
Road Dust
20%
Industry
8%
DG Set
23%
NOx
Hotel
0%
Domestic
1%
Transport
68%
19

Air quality modelling- Dec, 2010 (baseyear)
Widespread violation of PM2.5 standard in Bangalore
20

Model comparison
21

Future projections
• Future year 2030
• Growth assessed based on city development plans, mobility plans
• Annual growth of 3-4% assumed based on projected demands
• Domestic sector projections based on population growth
• Rest other emissions assumed to be same as current
• BAU scenario
• Transport sector emissions remained almost same as current levels
• Introduction of BS-IV norms negated the growth in emissions caused by incerased number of vehicles
• ALT scenario
• BS-VI introduced from 2020
• Transport sector emissions reduced by 50%.
22

Future projections : Effect on air quality
• 20% reduction in PM2.5 concentrations
• Many areas start meeting the standards
23

Future projections : EC also reduced . may affect the local climate
24

Conclusions
• Uniform fuel quality ‘One country, one fuel and one standard’ in India helps in reducing emissions
• Effects of advancing the norms are substantial at both
National and urban scales
• A city like Bangalore, can achieve the standards with introduction of advanced norms.
25

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