Patterns and Processes in Plant Phylogeography in the Mediterranean Basin. A Review Gonzalo Nieto Feliner Real Jardín Botánico, CSIC Plaza de Murillo 2 28014 Madrid nieto@rjb.csic.es Phone: +34 914203017 Mobile: +34 609446046 Running head: Plant phylogeography in the Mediterranean Basin 1 2 Key words: glacial refugia, hybridization, latitudinal patterns, Mediterranean Basin, 3 phylogeography, plants, spatio-temporal concordance, straits 4 1 5 ABSTRACT 6 Phylogeography, born to bridge population genetics and phylogenetics in an explicit geographic 7 context, has provided a successful platform for unveiling species evolutionary histories. The 8 Mediterranean Basin, one of the earth’s 25 biodiversity hotspots, is known for its complex 9 geological and palaeoclimatic history. Aiming to throw light on the causes and circumstances that 10 underlie such a rich biota, a review of the phylogeographic literature on plant lineages from the 11 Mediterranean Basin is presented focusing on two levels. First, phylogeographic patterns are 12 examined, arranged by potential driving forces such as longitude, latitude—and its interaction 13 with altitude—, straits or glacial refugia. Spatial coincidences in phylogeographic splits are found 14 but, in comparison to other regions such as the Alps or North America, no largely common 15 phylogeographic patterns across species are found in this region. Factors contributing to 16 phylogeographic complexity and scarcity of common patterns include less drastic effects of 17 Pleistocene glaciations than other temperate regions, environmental heterogeneity, the blurring 18 of genetic footprints via admixing over time and, for older lineages, possibly a greater 19 stochasticity due to the accumulation of responses to palaeoclimatic changes. At a second level, 20 processes inferred in phylogeographically-framed studies that are potential drivers of evolution 21 are examined. These include gradual range expansion, vicariance, long-distance dispersal, 22 radiations, hybridization and introgression, changes in reproductive system, and determinants of 23 successful colonization. Future phylogeographic studies have a great potential to help explaining 24 biodiversity patterns of plant groups and understanding why the Basin has come to be one of the 25 biodiversity hotspots on earth. This potential is based on the crucial questions that can be 26 addressed when geographic gaps are adequately filled (mainly northern Africa and the eastern 27 part of the region), on the important contribution of younger lineages—for which 28 phylogeographic approaches are most useful—to the whole diversity of the Basin, and on the 29 integration of new methods, particularly those that allow refining the search for spatio-temporal 30 concordance across genealogies. 2 31 CONTENTS 32 I. Introduction 33 II. Patterns 34 (1) Large-scale spatial patterns 35 (a) Longitudinal patterns 36 (b) Latitudinal patterns 37 (c) Glacial refugia 38 (d) Role of straits 39 (2) Spatio-temporal phylogeographic concordance 40 (3) Patterns and complexity 41 III. Processes 42 (a) Gradual range expansion 43 (b) Vicariance 44 (c) Long-distance dispersal 45 (d) Radiations 46 (e) Hybridization and introgression 47 (f) Changes in reproductive systems 48 (g) Ecology determining success of colonization 49 IV. Perspectives 50 V. Acknowledgements 51 VI. References 52 3 53 I. INTRODUCTION 54 The Mediterranean Basin comprises a large territory around the Mediterranean Sea that is 55 characterized by a Mediterranean climate, that is to say, mild rainy winters and hot dry summers. 56 According to Quézel and Médail (2003) the Mediterranean region in a bioclimatic sense spans an 57 area of 2,300,000 km2, whose limits have sometimes been suggested as coinciding with the 58 natural distribution range of the olive tree (Olea europaea L.) (Fig. 1). It extends approx. 4000 km 59 along an east-west axis and approx. 1600 km along a north-south axis. 60 This region is of considerable biological interest because of its rich biota compared to the 61 surrounding areas and is considered one of the earth’s 25 biodiversity hot-spots (Myers et al., 62 2000). At the plant species level, i.e., in floristic terms, the Mediterranean region contains a flora 63 that includes c. 24.000 species of which c. 60 % are endemics (Greuter 1991) whereas, for 64 instance, all of tropical Africa has a comparable plant richness (30,000 taxa) in a surface area four 65 times larger (Médail and Quezel, 1997). Compared to higher latitudes, 80% of all European plant 66 endemics are Mediterranean (Comes, 2004). This richness is attributed to a number of factors 67 including palaeogeologic and palaeoclimatic history, ecogeographical heterogeneity, human 68 influence (Blondel and Aronson, 1999; Blondel et al., 2010) and a high percentage of species with 69 narrow distribution ranges (Humphries et al., 1999; Thompson, 2005). 70 Geological and palaeoclimatic complexity is characteristic of the Mediterranean region. Its 71 geological evolution involves complicated interactions between orogenic processes and 72 widespread extensional tectonics (Rosenbaum et al., 2002). The area was formed during the 73 Cenozoic simultaneously with the convergence of the African and Eurasian Plates and three 74 associated smaller plates, Iberia, Apulia and Arabia (Dercourt et al., 1986; Krijgsman, 2002). The 75 western Mediterranean was particularly active tectonically and consisted during the Oligocene of 76 several small blocks that were remnants of a Paleozoic mountain chain, the Hercynian belt 77 (Rosenbaum et al., 2002). Rotation, migration and collision processes along more than 30 Mya 4 78 resulted in those small blocks located in the current territories of the Betic-Rif ranges, the Balearic 79 Islands, the Kabylies, Corsica, Sardinia, and Calabria. The eastern Mediterranean region (Hellenic 80 arc and Aegean basin) is more recent and its present configuration is the result of the collision of 81 the Arabian plate with stable Eurasia in middle Miocene, which closed the connection between 82 the Tethys Sea and the Indian Ocean (Krijgsman, 2002). 83 The palaeoclimatic history of the Mediterranean Basin included important long-term changes 84 such as the gradual global cooling since the Oligocene (Zachos et al., 2008) and an aridification 85 that started c. 9-8 Mya (Van Dam, 2006). During the Late Miocene, subduction processes in the 86 westernmost Mediterranean caused the closure of the marine gateways that existed between the 87 Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, leading to the desiccation of the Mediterranean Sea 88 that is known as the Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC) 5.96-5.33 Mya (Hsü, 1972; Krijgsman, 2002). 89 This period was followed by the establishment of a Mediterranean type climate, around 3.2 Mya 90 (Suc, 1984). In addition, the Basin has been influenced by cyclical climatic changes, driven by the 91 Milankovitch oscillations, due to periodical shifts in the Earth's orbit and axial tilt that decreased 92 their periodicity to 100 Ky during the Pleistocene (Imbrie et al., 1993; Jansson and Dynesius, 93 2002). 94 Phylogeography has shed light on the evolutionary history of current plant species by 95 bridging population genetic approaches and phylogenetic focuses, or micro- and macroevolution, 96 as the father of the discipline put it (Avise et al., 1987). The geographic coverage of 97 phylogeographic investigations has been more intense in regions such as North America 98 (Brunsfeld et al., 2001; Soltis et al., 2006) and the Alps (Schönswetter et al., 2005), but has 99 reached most regions including the Arctic (Abbott and Comes, 2004), China (Qiu et al., 2011), the 100 Southern Hemisphere (Beheregaray, 2008) and also the Mediterranean region, where a 101 substantial increase in the number of studies has occurred over the last ten to twelve years. 5 102 The present paper reviews the topic of Mediterranean Plant Phylogeography aiming to throw 103 light on the evolutionary history of plants in the Basin, finding clues for its biodiversity richness 104 and complexity, and contributing to understand the whole puzzle of the history of European 105 plants during the last 2 - 3 My. The review has a double focus, on patterns and process, and has 106 been elaborated from studies published in over 130 papers. 107 A summary of the knowledge concerning a very significant part of the region, i.e., the three 108 southern European peninsulas (Iberia, Italy, Balkans), and the role they have played in European 109 biogeography during the last million years, has been recently published (Hewitt, 2011). The 110 Balkans represent the main biodiversity hotspot and the major source for postglacial colonization 111 of central and northern Europe and it was suggested that such richness could be related to 112 opportunities for dispersal and vicariance along a complex geological history that included several 113 land connections, disconnections and submergences, particularly during the Miocene and 114 Pliocene (Griffiths et al., 2004; Tzedakis, 2004). However, its geographic position closer to Asian 115 biotas probably also contributed to its richness (Mansion et al., 2008). 116 In the evolution of plant lineages in the Iberian Peninsula, on the other hand, determinant 117 factors are the mountain ranges allowing multiple refugia and producing “a pulsating patchwork 118 of allopatric to parapatric clades”, and the recurrent connections and disconnections with 119 Northern Africa starting even before the MSC between 7 and 14 Mya (Hewitt, 2011). 120 The Italian Peninsula is a younger conglomerate that contributed less to postglacial 121 colonization of central and northern Europe due to the strong geographic barrier represented by 122 the Alps. However, multiple refugia have been identified corresponding to major mountain 123 blocks, with a particular differentiation in the South both in animal (e.g., Joger et al., 2007; 124 Canestrelli and Nascetti, 2008) and in plant groups (Cozzolino et al., 2003; Vettori et al., 2004; 125 Heuertz et al., 2006; Španiel et al., 2011). 6 126 However, that work—one of the last by the late Godfrey Hewitt (Hewitt, 2011)—was almost 127 exclusively based on studies of mammals, reptiles, amphibians and insects. Despite the common 128 geological, climatic and environmental history for all organisms phylogeographic patterns might 129 vary. Mechanisms such as polyploidization and hybridization, and ecogeographical concepts such 130 as niche conservatism, are regarded as more significant in plants than in animal groups 131 (Sanmartín, 2007; Donoghue, 2008). 132 This review is focused on the species level, i.e., within species or closely-related species, as 133 was the original scope of Phylogeography (Avise et al., 1987). However, there is not a sharp 134 border line between species and closely-related species and thus some works going beyond the 135 species level that were important for the Mediterranean Basin have also been considered. On a 136 geographic side, despite being traditionally considered a part or an extension of the 137 Mediterranean region, the Macaronesian archipelagos have not been considered here because 138 oceanic island biogeography (and phylogeography) is a specific field that has received much 139 attention in recent years and a considerable part of the literature has been devoted to the 140 Macaronesian region (Juan et al., 2000; Sanmartín et al., 2008; Fernández-Palacios et al., 2011). 141 142 II. PATTERNS 143 In this section, the main phylogeographic patterns detected in plant groups across the 144 Mediterranean Basin are arranged following the inferred major driving forces or causal factors. 145 (1) Large-scale spatial patterns 146 Even if small scale factors and specific biological properties of the plant groups are important in 147 driving differentiation in an environmentally heterogeneous region like this, large scale factors 148 also have a role in contributing to gene flow interruption, and thus to phylogeographic splits. The 149 patterns listed below (longitudinal, latitudinal, sea straits, refugia) are associated to longitude and 7 150 latitude, spanning the size and shape of the region, and potentially contributed to create shared 151 patterns across plant groups. 152 (a) Longitudinal patterns 153 East-west phylogeographical breaks, i.e, occurring along the longest axis of the Mediterranean 154 Basin, have frequently been inferred, and sometimes dated, to have arisen as a consequence of 155 pre-Pleistocene diversification of lineages. The most apparent cases are those in which there is a 156 clear current geographical gap associated with a phylogeographic split, which might have resulted 157 from contraction of formerly continuous ranges. These disjunctions or highly scattered ranges are 158 seen in the lowland shrub Buxus balearica Lam. (Rosselló et al., 2007; Fig. 2), the salt-tolerant 159 succulent Microcnemum coralloides (Loscos & J. Pardo) Buen (Kadereit and Yaprak, 2008) or the 160 herbaceous legume Erophaca baetica (L.) Boiss. from evergreen oak forests (Casimiro-Soriguer et 161 al., 2010). In the coastal subshrub Cephalaria squamiflora (Sieber) Greuter such gap is emphasized 162 by its insular distribution ranging from the Balearics to the Aegean (Rosselló et al., 2009). When 163 there is no current geographic gap, the location of the phylogeographic break or the secondary 164 contact may still be detectable (e.g., in the perennial mountain herb Heliosperma pusillum 165 (Waldst. & Kit.) Rchb., Frajman and Oxelman, 2007), particularly when the distribution range is 166 linear as in the marsh sedge Carex extensa Gooden. (Escudero et al., 2010). It is however more 167 frequent that events subsequent to the initial gene flow interruption, such as partial westwards 168 colonization of genotypes originated in the East or vice versa, led to a more complex picture, as in 169 the case of the submediterranean herbaceous Anthyllis montana L. (Kropf et al., 2002), the laurel 170 trees Laurus nobilis L. and L. azorica (Seub.) Franco (Rodríguez-Sánchez et al., 2009) or the 171 thermophilous lowland shrub Myrtus communis L. (Migliore et al., 2012). Westward or eastward 172 waves of colonization, not only during the Pleistocene but at different times depending on the 173 climatic conditions and the ecological requirements of the species in question, have been decisive 174 in shaping the current species and genetic composition of the Mediterranean flora. Examples are 175 found in Araceae, Carex extensa, Erica arborea L. or Myrtus communis (Mansion et al., 2008; 8 176 Escudero et al., 2010; Désamoré et al., 2011; Migliore et al., 2012; respectively). Such expansions 177 have been reported to be important during the Oligocene–Miocene, when microplates located 178 between Paratethys and Tethys allowed land connections along the Mediterranean (Steininger 179 and Rögl, 1984; Meulenkamp and Sissingh, 2003). However, other organisms expanded through 180 the Southern rim of the Basin at different periods (North Africa – Arabia, Quézel, 1985) as the 181 steppic herbaceous perennial Ferula loscosii (Willk.) Lange (Pérez-Collazos et al., 2009) or some 182 thistles (Cardueae; Barres et al., 2013). 183 In addition to east-west phylogeographic splits, different levels in genetic diversity on a large 184 scale in eastern vs. western areas of the Mediterranean Basin have been found too, particularly in 185 trees. Some of those E-W differences have been related to the place of origin or major 186 diversification of the group in question (e.g., in Quercus suber L., Lumaret et al., 2005), while for 187 other groups decisive factors have occurred along their evolutionary history. For instance, among 188 gymnosperm tree species from the genus Abies, Cedrus, Cupressus and Pinus, a decreasing trend 189 in genetic diversity running east-west along the Basin has been detected and has been attributed 190 to an east (warm/wet) – west (cold/dry) trend during the last glacial maximum (LGM) (Fady, 2005; 191 Wu et al., 2007). Such a decreasing gradient of within-population genetic diversity from east to 192 west has also been found in a meta-analysis based on different groups of living organisms, but it is 193 stronger in the southern part (northern Africa) than in the northern Mediterranean, in low-land 194 plants than in plants at higher elevations, in trees that in other life-forms, and in bi-parentally and 195 paternally than in maternally inherited DNA markers (Conord et al., 2012). However, there is no 196 overall correlation between genetic diversity and species diversity across the Basin (Fady and 197 Conord, 2010) and different situations concerning richer eastern or western lineages are found at 198 the species level (e.g., in Cistus, Guzmán and Vargas, 2005; Hordeum, Jakob et al., 2007; or 199 Heliosperma, Frajman and Oxelman, 2007). Therefore, new evidence is necessary to understand 200 the extent and causes for the prevailing idea that the Eastern Mediterranean is a reservoir for 9 201 plant evolution or a cradle for lineages diversification (Mansion et al., 2009; Roquet et al., 2009; 202 Barres et al., 2013). 203 (b) Latitudinal patterns 204 As at the global scale from the poles to the Equator, diversity patterns associated with latitude are 205 also found in the Mediterranean region. The pattern that is most directly associated to latitude is 206 a north-south decreasing genetic diversity gradient occurring within lineages. This applies mainly 207 to the northern Mediterranean region and is even more explicit when territories north of the 208 Region are also considered. It resulted from the ways by which species responded to the climatic 209 oscillations during the Pleistocene searching for their climatic optimum, i.e., shifting their ranges 210 northwards or southwards. For cold-sensitive species this implied that a significant portion of 211 diversity lost in northern latitudes during glacial periods was preserved in southern regions and 212 also that only part of the genotypes, usually those occurring on the northern edge or closest to 213 the glaciated areas, recolonized the northern territories during the Interglacials (Hewitt, 2000). 214 Such south-north recolonization processes were rapid and resulted in a few genotypes occupying 215 much larger areas in northern latitudes in Europe compared to Mediterranean territories as well 216 as in a few alleles surfing on the front of the colonizing populations (Excoffier and Ray, 2008). 217 This—so called leading-edge expansion model—has been used to explain genetic diversity 218 gradients within lineages that are likely to have been due to sequential bottlenecks during 219 colonization of deglaciated areas. Contrasting roles in leading vs. trailing-edge populations led to 220 differential patterns in gene flow, differentiation and ultimately in shaping the genetic diversity of 221 the species (Hampe and Petit, 2005; Parisod and Joost, 2010). 222 The scenario of climatically-driven north-to-south range shifts took place in highly 223 mountainous terrain in many areas of the Basin particularly in Southern Europe, which 224 contributed to shape latitudinal patterns beyond a plain latitudinal diversity gradient. One of the 225 simplest approaches to focus on this latitude-altitude interaction was Kropf et al.’s (2006; 2008) 10 226 “successive vicariance” model regarding the postglacial retreat of cold-adapted species into high 227 elevations. They tested the implications of the assumption that the retreat should progress in 228 Europe from south to north as interglacial periods became warmer (De Beaulieu et al., 1994). On 229 the Iberian Peninsula, such a model would result in greater genetic distance between populations 230 from Sierra Nevada and the Pyrenees than between the Pyrenees and the Alps because the 231 southernmost populations had to retreat—and thus interrupt gene flow—earlier. They found 232 results consistent with this prediction in some, e.g., Silene rupestris L., Kernera saxatilis (L.) Rchb., 233 Gentiana alpina Vill. and Saxifraga oppositifolia L., but not all species studied (Kropf et al., 2006; 234 2008). 235 (c) Glacial refugia 236 Mountains provided another dimension, altitude, to the latitudinal gradient and contributed 237 to compartmentalize the region creating climatically suitable enclaves, which allowed glacial 238 refugia to occur. According to Médail and Diadema (2009), refugia are areas “where distinct 239 genetic lineages have persisted through a series of Tertiary or Quaternary climate fluctuations 240 owing to special, buffering environmental characteristics”. Glacial refugia have important 241 biological implications, e.g., for conservation under a climate change scenario (Tzedakis, 2004). 242 The well-known general pattern of refugia in areas less affected by glaciations is strongly 243 supported by the fossil data (Bennet et al., 1991) and phylogeographic studies have made a major 244 contribution to identifying them (e.g., Taberlet et al., 1998; Hampe et al., 2003; Heuertz et al., 245 2004; Provan and Bennett, 2008). But there have been different views on the number of refugia in 246 each species. Hewitt (2001) proposed the ‘paradigm postglacial colonization patterns’ model, 247 which considered each of the main sources of recolonization for northern European territories, 248 i.e., the three Mediterranean peninsulas (Iberian, Italian and Balkan), as a single refugium. 249 Although this scheme was useful for tree species in particular (Taberlet et al., 1998; Heuertz et al., 250 2004), it was too simple to account for the evolutionary history of many groups due to the 251 importance of orography, among other factors. The ‘refugia-within-refugia’ model proposed by 11 252 Gómez and Lunt (2007) as a response to the latter advocates that phylogeographic breaks within 253 these peninsulas in a number of animal and plant groups demonstrate the preservation of various 254 lineages and thus the occurrence of multiple refugia. In fact, in those phylogeographic studies 255 that include Mediterranean populations together with populations from elsewhere, the 256 occurrence of multiple refugia in one or more of the three Peninsulas is the norm both for 257 herbaceous (Picó et al., 2008) and tree species such as Quercus spp. (Olalde et al., 2002; López de 258 Heredia et al., 2007), Populus spp. (Macaya-Sanz et al., 2012) or other groups (Carrión et al., 2003; 259 reviewed for Iberia in Rodríguez-Sánchez et al., 2010). Although there are more phylogeographic 260 examples from the Iberian Peninsula the refugia within refugia model clearly holds for the Italian 261 (Cozzolino et al., 2003; Ansell et al., 2008; Grassi et al., 2009; Španiel et al., 2011) and Balkan 262 peninsulas (Heuertz et al., 2001; Trewick et al., 2002; Kučera et al., 2010; Surina et al., 2011) (Fig. 263 3). This multiple refugia pattern has also been inferred in Southern Australia (Byrne, 2008), 264 probably because as in the Mediterranean Basin effects of climatic oscillations allowed survival 265 and resilience of different partly or totally isolated lineages within larger territories. 266 Spatial coincidence of refugia for different species greatly increases their interest as a sort of 267 sanctuaries for plant diversity (Tribsch and Schönswetter, 2003). There is coincidence at relatively 268 gross scales, e.g., the Andalusian ranges, Sicily or the Aegean region. However, factors related to 269 the biology or history of the group in question hinder fine matches for the location of refugia 270 across groups. For instance, there are scenarios that include also non-Mediterranean refugia, e.g., 271 in Meconopsis cambrica (L.) Vig. (Valtueña et al., 2012) or specific traits associated with the 272 location of refugia, e.g., higher clonality in northern populations of Populus, more exposed to 273 glaciations (Macaya-Sanz et al., 2012). Another feature that has been found in Fagus and other 274 trees is the unexpectedly high degree of genetic diversity detected in non-Mediterranean 275 latitudes away from the glacial refugia even if allelic diversity was higher in the latter (Comps et 276 al., 2001; Widmer and Lexer, 2001; Petit et al., 2003). This pattern is due to the admixture of 277 divergent lineages recolonizing the continent from separate refugia. 12 278 In a previous paper I argued that evidencing refugia, even for refugia within refugia, was not an 279 ultimate goal but a first step in phylogeographic studies in the Mediterranean Basin (Nieto Feliner, 280 2011) because as sites where extinction has been minimized, the processes that underlie survival 281 in them seem to be of primary interest. Also, in the context of the scarcity of phylogeographic 282 patterns in the Mediterranean Basin (see patterns and complexity section), refugia represent an 283 exception and demand for explanatory processes. In the end—simple as it might sound—refugia 284 might be environmentally favorable enclaves in spatially convenient sites. This is consistent with a 285 long series of studies in the Alps (Schönswetter et al., 2005) and particularly with the finding of a 286 coincidental current genetic structure across numerous taxonomic plant groups that is correlated 287 with specific substrata (Alvarez et al., 2009). It seems that cases like this exemplify a meaningful 288 integration of historical and ecological components of biogeography that allows a better 289 understanding of current distribution patterns. Along this line, glacial refugia represent interesting 290 places from the community ecology perspective (Webb et al., 2002). As enclaves where 291 conservation is maximized and at the same time have a biogeographic dynamic nature, examining 292 phylogenetic community structure along with concepts such as habitat filtering vs. competitive 293 exclusion of closely related species can help understand the functioning of refugia. 294 (d) Role of straits 295 It is likely that straits have been an important modulator of phylogeography across the region (Fig. 296 4). This role is not unexpected in a region whose coastline stretches 46,000 km, making the sea a 297 barrier for biological exchange not only between islands but also between mainland and islands or 298 between mainland areas. The effectiveness of the sea as a barrier has varied over time due to 299 climatic and geological changes and depending on the plant group. For example, one of the most 300 significant sea barriers geographically, the Strait of Gibraltar, is considered to be a greater 301 biogeographic barrier than the Pyrenees or the Alps (Hewitt, 2011) and has acted as such for 302 species such as the continental juniper Juniperus thurifera L. (Terrab et al., 2008b), a sedge 303 growing in Quercus suber forests Carex helodes Link (Escudero et al., 2008), Abies spp. (Terrab et 13 304 al., 2007) or several Mediterranean conifers (Jaramillo-Correa et al., 2010), among others. 305 However, a number of studies found that it was not effective at interrupting gene flow between 306 African and European populations in both directions, e.g., in the bulbous monocot Androcymbium 307 gramineum (Cav.) McBride (Caujapé-Castells and Jansen, 2003), the coastal annual Hypochaeris 308 salzmanniana DC. (Ortiz et al., 2007), the legume shrub Calicotome villosa (Poir.) Link (Arroyo et 309 al., 2008), several mediterranean rockroses Cistus spp. (Guzmán and Vargas, 2009; Fernández- 310 Mazuecos and Vargas, 2010) or in Rosmarinus officinalis L. (Mateu et al., 2013). This variable role 311 of the strait of Gibraltar depending on the species is consistent with results from animal groups 312 (Hewitt, 2011). The lack of correlation between dispersal abilities and genetic exchange between 313 the two continents across this Strait is also noteworthy (Rodríguez-Sánchez et al., 2008; Guzmán 314 and Vargas, 2009). 315 The geographic position of straits, and not only their width, is a crucial factor in determining 316 their biogeographic role. For instance, besides filtering biological exchange between Africa and 317 Europe, the Strait of Gibraltar has been decisive in shaping diversity patterns in the area. The 318 concentration of plant diversity on both sides of the Strait, due to both the accumulation of relict 319 species and the high percentage of endemics, is likely to be strongly related to its geographic 320 location as a crossroad, which allows it to act as a melting-pot for lineages (Rodríguez-Sánchez et 321 al., 2008). 322 The depth of seafloor is another important factor since shallow waters maximized the effects 323 of eustatic sea-level shifts by narrowing the straits, modifying the shape and size of emerged 324 lands or even creating land corridors. Along the Mediterranean Basin, the MSC has been widely 325 classically invoked as the fundamental cause for land connections involving relatively shallow sea 326 floors (Bocquet et al., 1978) and, more moderately, after the advent of molecular data (e.g., in 327 Androcymbium gramineum for Gibraltar, Caujapé-Castells and Jansen, 2003; in the orchid 328 Anacamptis palustris (Jacq.) R.M. Bateman et al., for the Otranto Strait, Mussacchio et al., 2006). 14 329 In contrast to the MSC, the phylogeographic importance of Pleistocene land-bridges has not 330 been adequately considered until recently, when dated genealogical splits have been associated 331 to sea-level drops of up to 130 m that occurred during the LGM (Petit et al., 2002; Lambeck et al., 332 2002). For instance, the current relationships between species across the Sicilian Channel were 333 shaped by eustatic sea-level shifts during the Pleistocene that facilitated biotic exchange between 334 Sicily and Tunisia and also between the islands in the region, Malta, Pantelleria, Lampedusa, and 335 the Aeolian and Aegadian archipelagos (Naciri et al., 2010; Zitari et al., 2011; Lo Presti and 336 Oberprieler, 2011; Fernández-Mazuecos and Vargas, 2011). In the Balearic Islands marine 337 transgressions during the interglacial periods divided the island of Majorca into two, whereas 338 during marine regressions sea-level drops united Majorca, Menorca and Cabrera into a single land 339 mass (Vesica et al., 2000; Gràcia et al., 2001). The latter regression during the Upper Pleistocene 340 at the end of the Mindel glaciation (c. 400,000 y BP) also connected Ibiza with the Dianic range in 341 Iberia which allowed biotic exchanges, e.g., in the perennial herb Cheirolophus intybaceus (Lam.) 342 Dostál (Garnatje et al., 2013). These eustatic sea-level shifts subsequently promoted or restricted 343 intraspecific gene flow, fragmenting populations and enhancing their divergence, e.g. in two 344 Asteraceae herbaceous Balearic endemics such as Senecio rodriguezii Willk. ex J.J. Rodr. (Molins et 345 al., 2009) and Crepis triasii (Cambess.) Nyman (Mayol et al., 2012). The impact of Pleistocene land- 346 bridges is also detectable in the Aegean sea (Bittkau and Comes, 2005) and is evident in narrow 347 and shallow straits like Bonifacio, between Corsica and Sardinia, which are not associated with 348 any phylogeographic break in a plastid haplotype network of the rockrose Cistus creticus L. (Falchi 349 et al., 2009). 350 The biology of the plants can result in opposite effects of the same strait on different species. 351 For instance, in the Eastern Mediterranean, phylogeographic breaks have been detected 352 coinciding with the straits of Bosporus for two species from sandy beaches such as Eryngium 353 maritimum L. and Cakile maritima Scop., and with the Dardanelles for Cakile maritima (Kadereit 354 and Westberg, 2007). However, because these two species occur in coastal habitats, Bosporus 15 355 and Dardanelles acted as geographic barriers in opposite periods compared to inland plants, and 356 along different geographic orientations (roughly east-west instead of north-south). Thus, unlike 357 for inland species, the closure of the two straits that resulted in the isolation of the Black Sea, the 358 Sea of Marmara and the Aegean Sea could represent an east-west barrier for a coastal expansion 359 of these species due to elimination of coastline. Yet, on the other end of the Basin, the fact that 360 the Strait of Gibraltar has remained open since the end of the MSC (c. 5.3 Mya) did not imply that 361 coastal land plants species could spread freely across it along an east-west direction; this was 362 probably due to sea-currents that precluded gene-flow via seeds in species with sea-dispersed 363 fruits (Kadereit and Westberg, 2007; Westberg and Kadereit, 2009). Sea-currents have been also 364 invoked to explain limitations to gene flow across the same strait for marine species (reviewed in 365 Patarnello et al., 2007). In all, the conclusion is that predicting the role of straits as 366 biogeographical barriers requires considering very diverse factors. 367 368 (2) Spatio-temporal phylogeographic concordance 369 Genealogical concordance is the most straightforward evidence for common historical factors 370 affecting the phylogeography of different groups in the Mediterranean region. Different types of 371 concordance are conceivable and Avise (1998; 2009) pointed out four: within-locus, multi-locus, 372 multi-species and among multiple lines of empirical evidence. The third of these—geographical 373 co-location of significant genealogical splits across multiple co-distributed species—has been 374 addressed using comparative phylogeographic approaches (Bermingham and Moritz, 1998) in the 375 Alps (e.g., Tribsch and Schönswetter, 2003; Schönswetter et al., 2004) or North America 376 (Brunsfeld et al., 2001; Soltis et al., 2006). In the Mediterranean Basin some comparative studies 377 have focused on taxonomic groups such as Cistus spp. (Fernández-Mazuecos and Vargas, 2010), 378 exemplifying how different phylogeographic patterns can arise in closely related species. Other 379 studies have focused on phylogenetically unrelated plants from similar habitats. In alpine 16 380 Mediterranean plants no common pattern was found (Vargas, 2003) whereas in coastal 381 communities there was some concordance in geographic clusters in the Eastern Mediterranean 382 but no strongly congruent patterns along their inferred evolutionary histories (e.g., Kadereit et al., 383 2005; Kadereit and Westberg, 2007). The conclusion that species sharing habitats and even 384 showing co-located phylogeographic breaks might not share much of their overall 385 phylogeography is consistent with results from the early comparative study on the continental 386 scale by Taberlet et al. (1998). 387 In fact, co-location of phylogeographic breaks in different groups does not always imply time 388 or process coincidence, a phenomenon recognized as pseudocongruence at a deeper 389 biogeographic level (Donoghue and Moore, 2003). Pseudocongruence at the species level has 390 recently been shown by Jaramillo-Correa et al. (2010) in a study of five species of Mediterranean 391 conifers across the Strait of Gibraltar. And this concept is also applicable to the similarities in 392 ecological requirements of the species that coincide in Alpian refugia, commented above (Alvarez 393 et al., 2009). Also, evolutionary patterns need not be associated with important climatic events, 394 as illustrated by the diversification rates in the annual self-compatible Nigella arvensis L. group, 395 which were not affected by the onset of the Mediterranean climate (Bittkau and Comes, 2009). 396 Another commonly followed search for concordance examines matches between gene-tree 397 partitions (or historical patterns in general) of a given study group and dated historical abiotic 398 events (geographic or climatic changes). For instance, hybridization and introgression between 399 previously lineages can be associated to a breakdown of existing geographic barriers. Although 400 searches for this type of concordance are frequently hampered by too wide confidence intervals 401 for estimated dates of lineage events (Fromhage et al., 2004), a number of studies using dated 402 phylogeographies have proposed association between climatic or geographic factors and 403 evolutionary events in the Mediterranean (e.g., in Anthemis, Lo Presti and Oberprieler, 2009; 404 Dianthus, Valente et al., 2010; Erodium, Fiz-Palacios et al., 2010). Still, difference in coalescence 17 405 times should ideally be taken into account when examining matches of evolutionary patterns in 406 different species with the same abiotic event (see Perspectives section). 407 Lack of phylogeographic structure associated to rapid postglacial colonization also results in 408 some form of concordance. This seems to be the case in two tree species which, together with 409 long generation times, share the possession of edible fruits, which might have accelerated their 410 colonization of the Basin by humans: the stone pine, Pinus pinea L. (Vendramin et al., 2008) and 411 the chestnut tree, Castanea sativa Miller (Fineschi et al., 2000). 412 413 (3) Patterns and complexity 414 The main conclusion from the available evidence is that common phylogeographic patterns are 415 scarce in the Mediterranean Basin. In the Alps phylogeography has focused on postglacial 416 colonization, testing whether refugial areas could have existed in nunataks or at lower latitudes 417 (e.g., Tribsch and Schönswetter 2003; Schönswetter et al. 2005). The distinct patterns found in 418 this region seem to result from younger histories, whereas previous lineages disappeared due to 419 Pleistocene glaciations. 420 Compared to the Alps, scarcity of patterns in the Mediterranean Basin may partly derive from 421 blurring of genetic footprints via admixing over time. The successive contacts between 422 populations that have experienced some differentiation during glacial or interglacial periods, but 423 failed to develop complete reproductive barriers, lead to admixture and thus obscured genetic 424 footprints of whatever differentiation might have preceded those contacts. Scarcity of common 425 patterns may actually reflect a scarcity of simple patterns and thus be related to the idea of 426 complexity. In the Mediterranean Basin several phylogeographic studies have highlighted this 427 (Heuertz et al., 2004; Jiménez et al., 2004; López de Heredia et al., 2005, 2007; Médail and 428 Diadema, 2009; Lo Presti and Oberprieler, 2011; Fernández-Mazuecos and Vargas, 2011). 429 However, species of older, Tertiary, origin such as Erica arborea (Désamoré et al., 2011) or Myrtus 18 430 communis (Migliore et al., 2012) exemplify the idea of complexity resulting from survival and 431 partial admixture of lineages. These studies report a combination of extensive colonization waves 432 (frequently east-west or vice versa) and survival without great geographic displacement or, as 433 expressed in Migliore et al. (2012) “accumulation of the species’ responses to successive 434 palaeoenvironmental changes”. Also for older lineages, such accumulation of responses under 435 substantial climatic instability but without dramatic unifying climatic changes probably resulted in 436 greater stochasticity, which contributed to the scarcity of phylogeographic patterns in the Basin. 437 438 III. PROCESSES 439 Although comparative studies in the Basin have primarily looked for common patterns the 440 possibility of inferring common processes from different groups would be a great advantage 441 albeit a challenging one. The coincidence in space of the same processes in different species 442 poses the question of whether similar selection pressures lie behind them. Some of the processes 443 can be addressed within the frame of statistical phylogeography approaches that estimate 444 population parameters (Hickerson et al., 2010) but the focus here is wider. The following 445 paragraphs highlight a few processes that have been inferred, from phylogeographically-framed 446 studies, to occur in Mediterranean lineages and may be drivers, or at least important factors, in 447 the evolutionary history of plant groups. These are gradual range expansion, vicariance, long- 448 distance dispersal (LDD), radiations, hybridization and introgression, changes in reproductive 449 systems, and ecological determinants of colonization. The first three of those specifically refer to 450 changes in species distributions while the remaining are primarily involved in other aspects of 451 evolutionary change, such as shaping species genetic architecture, although ultimately affect their 452 distributions too. All of them have implications on phylogeography although in different ways and 453 at different time scales. 454 19 455 (a) Gradual range expansion 456 Following from the simplest way by which plants, as sessile organisms, track their climatic optima 457 during climate changes it is likely that gradual range expansion has played an important role, if 458 not the most, in distribution range changes over time. Such expansion has mainly occurred along 459 a north-south direction and along elevational gradients in the mountains and is currently 460 detectable, even at minimal time-scales, in alpine pioneer species as a response to global change 461 (Pauli et al., 2007). But other gradual range expansion scenarios not evidently driven by rapid 462 climate changes might have been also common in the Mediterranean. Gradual expansion should 463 have contributed substantially to westwards or eastwards colonization along the Basin either 464 across the northern (European) side or across Northern Africa and might account for small-scale 465 migration as reported in Anthyllis montana (Kropf et al., 2002). 466 (b) Vicariance 467 Mediterranean phylogeographic studies sometimes set as the null hypothesis the possibility that 468 current disjunct distributions of genotypes, species or closely related species are due to 469 vicariance, that is, the fragmentation of an ancient continuous range. The oldest tectonic events 470 invoked to explain currently recognizable patterns in this region date back to the geological 471 dynamism in the Oligocene that led to isolation of previously connected land-masses (Rosenbaum 472 et al., 2002). Thus, lineage splits in herbaceous lineages attributed to vicariance during that 473 period do not involve populations within species but closely related genera such as Helicodiceros 474 and its Eastern Mediterranean sister group Eminium (Mansion et al., 2008). However, in slowly 475 evolving tree species the idea that current genetic structures may reflect population divergence 476 pre-dating the onset of the Mediterranean climate (c. 3.2 Mya) is not perceived as odd (Petit et 477 al., 2005). Particularly striking is the interpretation of the partial matching found in Quercus suber 478 between current plastid intraspecific lineages and the western European Oligocene microplates, 20 479 which was attributed to tectonic-associated vicariance events produced at that time (Magri et al., 480 2007). 481 The complex palaeogeology and palaeoclimatology of the Basin counteracted vicariance by 482 favoring contacts between previously isolated land-masses and the migration of island arcs. The 483 outcome is a reticulate biogeographical history in which ‘biotas repeatedly fragmented and 484 merged as dispersal barriers appeared and disappeared through time’ (Sanmartín, 2003; Salvo et 485 al., 2010). Therefore, finding whole matches between several areas and genetic groups is an 486 exception and the most frequent pattern is matches in single vicariant events separating two 487 lineages. Examples of this include both woody species such as Myrtus (Migliore et al., 2012) and 488 non-woody species such as Campanula (Cano-Maqueda et al., 2008), some of them associated 489 with well-dated raising of barriers, e.g., the opening of the Strait of Gibraltar, 5.3 Mya, in 490 Anthemis (Lo Presti and Oberprieler, 2009) or Linaria (Fernández-Mazuecos and Vargas, 2011). 491 A more recently reported model of vicariant relationship is associated with Pleistocene 492 climatic oscillations. During interglacial periods (including the current ‘postglacial’ one), 493 distribution areas of cold-adapted species were fragmented and restricted to higher elevations, 494 thus creating vicariance, which may have left genetic footprints. Current patterns attributed to 495 this type of vicariance have been reported in high elevation species, both herbaceous perennials 496 such as Pritzelago alpina (L.) Kuntze (Kropf et al., 2003), Silene rupestris, Gentiana alpina, Kernera 497 saxatilis, Saxifraga oppositifolia (Kropf et al., 2006; 2008), Androsace vitaliana (L.) Lapeyr. (Dixon 498 et al., 2009), Reseda sect. Glaucoreseda (Martín-Bravo et al., 2010) as well as trees such as Pinus 499 mugo Turra (Heuertz et al., 2010). 500 (c) Long-distance dispersal 501 LDD events inferred in the frame of phylogenetic studies of genera or species groups, using 502 analytical methods, have not been rare within the Mediterranean region (e.g., in Araceae, 503 Mansion et al., 2009; Erodium, Fiz-Palacios et al., 2010) and between this and other regions (e.g. 21 504 in Senecio, Coleman et al., 2003; Convolvulus, Carine et al., 2004; Hypochaeris, Tremetsberger et 505 al., 2005; Oligomeris, Martín-Bravo et al., 2009; Legousia, Roquet et al., 2009; and other groups, 506 Kadereit and Baldwin, 2012). At the phylogeographic level, the sharper the contrast between 507 genetic and geographic distance (specifically a low genetic distance combined with a high 508 geographic distance) the clearer the footprint of the LDD event is, which implies that older LDD 509 events are more difficult to document. LDD has been suggested to occur between mountain 510 ranges affecting cold-tolerant plants only recently, e.g., Alps and Iberian ranges (Androsace 511 vitaliana, Dixon et al., 2009), Pyrenees and Sierra Nevada (Papaver alpinum L., Kropf et al., 2006). 512 This is perhaps in contrast to those events mediated by marine bird flights involving coastal or low 513 elevation species, which have been considered classical examples of LDD. Of those LDD events 514 connecting areas isolated by sea, there are a number of reports between the Iberian Peninsula 515 and the Balearics (e.g., Cheirolophus intybaceus, Garnatje et al., 2013), the Iberian Peninsula and 516 Corsica-Sardinia (Armeria pungens (Link) Hoffmanns. & Link, Piñeiro et al., 2007; Juniperus 517 thurifera, Terrab et al., 2008b), as well as across the Strait of Sicily (Anthemis secundirramea Biv., 518 Lo Presti and Oberprieler, 2011; Linaria Sect. Versicolores, Fernández-Mazuecos and Vargas, 2011) 519 (Fig. 5). For other coastal plants, marine long-distance dispersal has been important in some 520 species (e.g. Calystegia soldanella (L.) R. Br., Arafeh and Kadereit, 2006). 521 (d) Radiations 522 Although adaptive radiations are usually associated to islands (e.g., Aeonium in the Canary Islands, 523 Jorgensen and Ollesen, 2001), correlations between morphological traits and environmental 524 variables have revealed cases in the Mediterranean Basin, e.g., in Cistus (Guzmán et al., 2009). 525 Perhaps this is not unexpected given the environmental heterogeneity of the Basin and the 526 patchy landscape that offer a variety of niches in relatively close proximity. However, in some 527 cases there is no evidence for considering the radiations to be adaptive, e.g., in Dianthus broteri 528 Boiss. & Reuter (Balao et al., 2010) and Erodium spp. (Fiz-Palacios et al., 2010), while in others 529 radiations are explicitly considered non-adaptive. In fact, comparatively buffered climatic 22 530 oscillations and relatively uniform environments in the Aegean region have favored non-adaptive 531 radiation, driven instead by genetic drift and leading to allopatric speciation in this area, e.g., in 532 the Nigella arvensis group (Bittkau and Comes, 2005; Comes et al., 2008). Studies on other groups 533 are consistent with a scenario of random drift as the driver of plant diversification in the Aegean 534 region (e.g., Brassica cretica Lam., Edh et al., 2007). Altogether, these examples have stressed the 535 importance of non-adaptive radiation as compared to the most extended model of radiative 536 evolution (Gittenberger, 1991). 537 (e) Hybridization and introgression 538 The Mediterranean Basin gathers historical and ecological factors that render it a fertile arena for 539 hybridization and introgression (Thompson, 2005). Firstly, it is a biodiversity hotspot containing a 540 high degree of genetic and species diversity accumulated in a comparative small space over 541 extended time (Médail and Diadema, 2009). Secondly, adequate conditions have existed to 542 encourage contact between partially differentiated populations and closely related species. 543 Quaternary climate-driven shifts in species ranges involved shorter distances than in higher 544 latitudes (Hewitt, 2001) in part due to the fact that orography enabled species to track their 545 niches along altitude (Gutiérrez Larena et al., 2002; Naciri et al., 2010; Fuertes Aguilar et al., 2011; 546 Surina et al., 2011). This, together with the patchy nature of the landscape and the narrow ranges 547 of many species (Thompson, 2005) contributed to those contacts. There is evidence that contact 548 zones between close species of Antirrhinum that are able to hybridize can be finely defined by 549 niche modelling (Khimoun et al., 2012). This gives ground to the idea that maximizing ecotones in 550 a patchy landscape can favor hybridization in the Mediterranean and is also consistent with the 551 importance of ecological differentiation in the region (Thompson et al., 2005). Another favorable 552 environmental circumstance is habitat disturbance (Lamont et al., 2003; Seehausen et al., 2008) 553 and domestication, usually progressing from east to west (Besnard et al., 2007; 2013). In 554 comparison to central or northern European regions, humans have substantially altered the 555 Mediterranean Basin landscape over several thousand years, both through cultivation and 23 556 habitation, as well as by introducing non-native species. Disturbed habitats provide a suitable 557 ground for hybridization (Anderson, 1948; Levin et al., 1996) and the potential of alien species to 558 become invasive has been associated to hybridization too (Schierenbeck and Ellstrand, 2009). 559 These factors suggest that hybridization and introgression, which are common features in 560 plants throughout the world, might have been quantitatively important in the Mediterranean. 561 Testing if this is true is important because these processes can be main drivers of plant evolution 562 (Arnold, 1997; Mallet, 2005) but by no means easy because there are different possible 563 evolutionary outcomes of hybridization and introgression (Arnold, 1997; Soltis and Soltis, 2009) 564 that require specific pattern-detection strategies. Despite these difficulties, hybridization and 565 introgression have been detected in the Region based on different patterns. These include 566 incongruence between differently inherited markers (in Centaurium, Mansion et al., 2005; 567 Helliosperma, Frajman and Oxelman, 2007; Olea, Besnard et al., 2007; Anthemis, Lo Presti and 568 Oberprieler, 2011); sharing of haplotypes (e.g., in evergreen oaks, Belahbib et al., 2001; López de 569 Heredia et al., 2007; and Fraxinus, Heuertz et al., 2006) sometimes linked to altitudinal shifts (in 570 Armeria, Gutiérrez Larena et al., 2002); quantitative morphological variation, especially 571 intermediacy (in Cyclamen; Thompson et al., 2010); coalescent simulations to tell apart 572 hybridization from incomplete lineage sorting (in Linaria, Blanco-Pastor et al., 2012); or, more 573 rarely, species-independent geographic structure of variation for nuclear ribosomal DNA ITS (in 574 Armeria, Nieto Feliner et al., 2004). 575 Three aspects remain crucial to refine the assessment of the true incidence of 576 hybridization and introgression in the region. Understanding and documenting the ecological 577 factors, and in particular the adaptive significance of hybridization and introgression events, is 578 central to interpret and even predict the outcomes of these processes. Despite a few thoroughly 579 studied cases in other regions (Rieseberg et al., 2003), this is an elusive topic. Evidence in the 580 region is scanty but not lacking. For example, niche expansion associated with hybridization and 581 introgression is suggested in Armeria pungens (Piñeiro et al., 2011). Along with ecological 24 582 determinants of hybridization, a second crucial aspect is finely assessing reproductive barriers 583 between hybridizing species, which need not be constant across their ranges (e.g., in Narcissus, 584 Marques et al., 2012). The role of pollinators as premating barriers is very diverse. Examples of 585 week premating barriers involving pollinator sharing but leading to sterile hybrids due to post- 586 mating barriers include Mediterranean orchids (Cozzolino and Widmer, 2005). A third difficult 587 aspect is distinguishing introgression from lineage sorting (Albaladejo et al., 2005; Maureira- 588 Butler et al., 2008; Blanco-Pastor et al., 2012) and detecting old introgression. Next generation 589 sequencing techniques offer new possibilities for addressing those problems (Twyford and Ennos, 590 2012). 591 (f) Changes in reproductive systems 592 Intraspecific breeding system variation is a form of diversity. Thus, it is not unexpected that 593 it is well represented and, due to its lability and adaptive significance, to have changed several 594 times in a biodiversity hot-spot like the Mediterranean Basin. A number of phylogeographically 595 framed studies have identified changes in the reproductive system within this region, e.g., in 596 Mercurialis (Pannell et al., 2004), Ecbalium (Costich and Meagher, 1992), Hypochaeris (Ortíz et al., 597 2007), Epipactis (Tranchida-Lombardo et al., 2011) or Erodium (Alarcón et al., 2011), among 598 others. In addition, it has long been known that annual life-forms are well represented in the 599 Mediterranean Basin (Raunkiaer, 1934). Since annuals are frequently associated with selfing 600 (Stebbins, 1970) and the shift from perennial outcrossing to annual selfing is considered to be 601 mostly irreversible (Barrett, 2013), the good representation of this life-cycle might be an indirect 602 indication of active breeding systems shifts. 603 There are a number of factors that are well represented in the Mediterranean region that 604 might be associated to breeding systems changes, e.g., human disturbance (Eckert et al., 2010), 605 environmental changes causing stress particularly in trailing edge populations (Levin, 2012), 606 threats of inbreeding in narrow habitats (Fiz-Palacios et al., 2010) or the occurrence of 25 607 biogeographic crossroads, such as the Strait of Gibraltar area, where populations of the same 608 species with different breeding systems accumulate following range shifts across this region 609 (Rodríguez-Sánchez et al., 2008). In contrast to these dynamic scenarios, breeding system shifts 610 are sometimes associated with relatively stable evolutionary scenarios in which differentiation 611 has been mainly due to genetic drift (e.g., Nigella in Bittkau and Comes, 2005; Comes et al., 2008). 612 Understanding the origin and maintenance of alternative reproductive systems is far from 613 simple and requires multiple approaches that go from the genetic basis to the ecological drivers 614 (Barrett, 1998; Charlesworth, 2006). However, breeding system variation revealed in a 615 phylogeographic context is a first step that can unveil possible associations between breeding 616 systems and haplotypes across space. 617 (g) Ecology determining success of colonization 618 Seedling establishment is a crucial stage in the colonization of new spots and, in general, in 619 species range expansion. When LDD events are involved, the success of colonization has been 620 traditionally been thought to depend primarily on the availability of dispersal vectors and other 621 factors related with the transport of the diaspores (Nathan, 2006) at least within historical 622 biogeography. This view somehow implies that once the most stochastic event is achieved, i.e., 623 transporting a diaspore across a long distance, the rest of the elements for colonizing a new 624 territory are or comparatively minor importance. In recent years a view has emerged that gives a 625 bigger role in the colonization of new areas after LDD or surmounting narrow sea-barriers to 626 colonization abilities based on preadaptation of genotypes and availability of suitable habitats. 627 This view follows from research using different approaches including phylogeographically- 628 oriented studies from high latitudes (Alsos et al., 2007) and from Mediterranean groups. Among 629 the latter, some have stressed the lack of adaptations in seeds for transmarine transport 630 (Rodríguez-Sánchez et al., 2008; Fernández-Mazuecos and Vargas, 2010). Another study, using 631 species distribution modelling (SDM) and genetic data, has shown that the source of a successful 26 632 LDD of Armeria pungens from Iberia to Corsica-Sardinia were the populations occurring in the 633 most similar habitats, which happened to be geographically the most distant (Piñeiro et al., 2007). 634 If this pattern is frequent, it would be more correct to speak of long-distance colonization than of 635 long-distance dispersal, based on the idea that what we recognize as such are those events in 636 which colonization in the new territory has been achieved, whereas LDD events could be much 637 more frequent but many not resulting in successful colonization and therefore remaining 638 undetected. 639 640 IV. PERSPECTIVES 641 Plant phylogeography in the Mediterranean region will probably progress first by increasing the 642 number of markers sampled within genomes, as in any other discipline in evolutionary biology. 643 The main advantage of using genealogies from uniparentally inherited genes, i.e., discarding the 644 possibility of recombination and thus of mixed historical signals (Avise et al., 1987; Avise, 2009), 645 has been partly overridden years ago by the access to a range of multilocus markers such as 646 AFLPs, microsatellites, SNPs, and more recently by the availability of high throughput sequencing 647 techniques, even for non-model organisms (Emerson et al., 2010). This trend has been boosted by 648 the urge to sample larger parts of genomes when facing complex patterns and processes as we do 649 in the Mediterranean and also by the realization that relying on one or two gene genealogies to 650 infer past events at the species level, as done in classical phylogeography, entails risks. However, 651 inferring organism level evolution from that deluge of molecular data will continue to pose 652 problems that, conceptually, are not that different from those faced by molecular phylogenetics 653 in the nineties, i.e., homology/paralogy issues and the connections and disconnections between 654 gene tree and species tree. 655 A second aspect is the development and use of new approaches that seek to circumvent the 656 conceptual problems of more classical approaches. Knowles and Maddison (2002) introduced the 27 657 field of statistical phylogeography, which uses statistical approaches based on coalescent models 658 for parameter estimation and testing of alternative hypothesis. They focus on the processes that 659 generate the patterns of genetic variation and on assessing the confidence of phylogeographic 660 conclusions (Hickerson et al., 2010). The main argument is that if coalescent theory is not 661 considered, equating genealogical pattern with demographic and evolutionary processes may be 662 flawed (Arbogast et al., 2002). For example, genealogical splits caused by the same historical 663 abiotic event need not coincide exactly in time for two species showing disparate demographic 664 parameters (Knowles, 2009). Although several coalescent-based hypotheses testing methods 665 have been implemented, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is becoming increasingly used 666 since it bypasses the computational difficulties of calculating likelihood functions (Beaumont et 667 al., 2002). These methods are starting to be applied also in comparative phylogeographic studies 668 (Hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation methods, HABC). HABC methods estimate 669 ‘hyper-parameters’, which inform degree of congruence among co-distributed species and ‘sub- 670 parameters’, which describe the demographic history of each species (Hickerson et al., 2006; 671 Beaumont, 2010). To the extent that statistical phylogeography minimizes the role of genealogies 672 (“a gene genealogy is a transitional variable for connecting data to demographic parameters 673 under an explicit statistical model” Hickerson et al., 2010), it is arguable whether it contributes to 674 narrowing the gap between phylogenetics and population genetics, as originally proposed by 675 Avise et al. (1987), and has led to hot debates (Beaumont et al., 2010). In any case, these 676 approaches should be tried in Mediterranean plant phylogeographic studies, where to date they 677 are virtually absent, unlike niche modelling approaches, which have been successfully used in 678 Mediterranean groups. 679 A third important component for the future of Mediterranean phylogeography is seeking for 680 congruence with independent data to improve the uncertainty and provide robustness to 681 phylogeographic hypotheses. Due to scantiness of the plant macrofossil record and the limited 682 utility of fossil pollen beyond non wind-pollinated species (Petit et al., 2002; Carrión et al., 2003; 28 683 López de Heredia et al., 2007; Terrab et al., 2008a), independent past evidence is expected to be 684 scarce for many plant groups. This is despite findings like those reported in Anderson et al. (2009) 685 in volcanic islands such as the Canaries, which remembers how fossil discovery is possible even in 686 places in which it was considered unlikely. Palaeoclimatic reconstructions in the Mediterranean 687 Basin and the projection of species distribution modelling into past scenarios (Waltari et al., 2007; 688 Benito-Garzón et al., 2007; Rodríguez-Sánchez and Arroyo, 2008; Rodríguez-Sánchez et al., 2010; 689 Fernández-Mazuecos and Vargas, 2013) are effective strategies to incorporate past evidence into 690 phylogeographic studies. But their usefulness will partly depend on filing gaps of palaeoclimatic 691 data for eastern and southern areas of the Basin and on refining them to be representative of the 692 environmental heterogeneity in the region (Jakob et al., 2007; Médail and Diadema, 2009). 693 Choosing simplified systems, e.g., with linear distribution ranges, may help in searching for 694 congruence too (Clausing et al., 2000; Piñeiro et al., 2007; Escudero et al., 2010). 695 Focusing on drivers of differentiation and thus beyond the neutral marker domain, another 696 interesting pursue is performing genome scans and searching for outlier loci showing a 697 significantly higher degree of differentiation, as this may be indicative of adaptive divergence 698 particularly when there is correlation with environmental variables (Herrera and Bazaga, 2008; 699 Excoffier et al., 2009; García et al., 2013). This exemplifies the tendency towards broadening the 700 scope of evolutionary questions addressed under a phylogeographic frame, which is likely to 701 increase as phylogeography becomes more inclusive. Combining efforts into integrative 702 hypothesis-based approaches is one of the keys to understand the complex picture of how the 703 Mediterranean biota have interacted and evolved along the Basin (Salvo et al., 2010). 704 Deepening comparative studies with the other four Mediterranean climate zones could also 705 throw light on plant evolution within the Basin (Cowling et al., 1996). Altogether the 706 Mediterranean biome covers 2% of the world’s surface, but is home to 20% of the total world’s 707 flora (Médail and Quézel, 1997). While some Mediterranean climate zones show common 708 features beyond the climate and the floristic richness, factors determining this richness and the 29 709 processes leading to it seem to differ substantially. For instance, the Mediterranean Basin seems 710 to share the high speciation and low extinction rates as well as the complex environmental 711 conditions with the Cape region and, maybe to some extent, the importance of soil types. Yet, 712 other factors that have apparently played a significant role in the diversity of the Cape region 713 were not crucial in the Mediterranean Basin. These are climatic stability (at least in comparable 714 terms), explosive radiation of a few clades that constitute most of the diversity, shifts in fire- 715 survival strategy, the timing of the onset of summer drought (Linder and Hardy, 2004; Linder, 716 2005; Schnitzler et al., 2011) and, underlying all these factors, lineage age (Valente and Vargas, 717 2013). 718 Large-scale comparative studies could also help to understand features of plant evolution in 719 time and space in this region. Large efforts like the IntraBiodiv Consortium that focused on the 720 Alps and Carpathians (e.g., Alvarez et al., 2009) would be useful in the Mediterranean but studies 721 focused on specific questions could give clues too. An example of the latter is Normand et al. 722 (2011), which assessed the relative importance of current climate vs. postglacial accessibility to 723 places with suitable conditions for explaining current plant species ranges in Europe. This study 724 found that accessibility was especially important for small-range species in southern Europe. 725 Another important question was addressed by the same team looking at the relationships 726 between Plio-Pleistocene climate changes, species richness and topographic heterogeneity. They 727 found a greater increase in species richness with increasing topographic heterogeneity in 728 southern Europe, than in northern Europe (Svenning et al., 2009). 729 In addition to the above exposed directions, some final remarks should be pointed out 730 regarding future phylogeographic studies in the Basin. There are substantial gaps in geographic 731 coverage for plant phylogeographic studies such as North Africa, the Balkans and the easternmost 732 part of the Basin. New evidence from the latter area is crucial to substantiate the idea that the 733 Eastern Mediterranean is a cradle for lineages diversification (Mansion et al., 2009; Barres et al., 734 2013). Also, it is fortunate that recent rapid speciation events—associated with Pleistocene 30 735 climatic changes—have substantially contributed to the whole diversity of the area compared to 736 the Cape Flora (Valente and Vargas, 2013). Thus reconstructing the evolutionary history of a 737 growing number of younger lineages in the Mediterranean Basin, for which phylogeographic 738 approaches are particularly useful, will be insightful for the whole biota, including the possible 739 influence of humans. Because the location and dynamics of glacial refugia depend heavily on the 740 ecological requirements of each species, important questions regarding their role have to be 741 addressed using comparative approaches of species from the same habitats and with similar 742 biological characteristics. 743 All these things considered, the Mediterranean Basin continues to offer a highly 744 stimulating scientific ground which phylogeographic approaches can exploit with strong potential 745 to help explaining biodiversity patterns and understanding how the Basin has come to be one of 746 biodiversity hotspots on earth. 747 748 VI. 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The 1342 disjointed distribution of Anacamptis longicornu in the West-Mediterranean: the role of 1343 vicariance versus long-distance seed dispersal. Taxon 60, 1041–1049. 1344 55 1345 FIGURE LEGENDS: 1346 Figure 1.- Delimitation of the Mediterranean region according to bioclimatic criteria (redrawn 1347 from Quézel and Médail, 2003) 1348 Figure 2.- Examples of east-west phylogeographic breaks associated with a distinct current 1349 geographic gap. Distribution ranges of Buxus balearica (red), Erophaca baetica (grey) and 1350 Cephalaria squamiflora (black) according to Rosselló et al. (2007), Casimiro-Soriguer et al., (2010) 1351 and Rosselló et al. (2009), respectively. 1352 Figure 3.- Examples of the refugia-within-refugia model advocating that each of the three 1353 southern European peninsulas did not function as a single refugium during Pleistocene glacial 1354 periods but each hosted different lineages in separate refugia as indicated by current genetic 1355 structure (Gomez and Lunt, 2007). The map gathers information from a different plant group in 1356 each of three peninsulas: hypothetic location of refugia during the LGM for Quercus spp. in the 1357 Iberian peninsula according to Olalde et al. (2002); genetic groups in Arabis alpina in the Italian 1358 peninsula (Ansell et al., 2008); taxonomic-genetic groups in the Cardamine maritima complex in 1359 the Balkans (Kučera et al., 2010). 1360 Figure 4.- Sea straits whose biogeographic role as barriers or corridors has been addressed in 1361 phylogeographic studies around the Mediterranean Basin. 1362 Figure 5.- Examples of inferred long-distance dispersal (LDD) events within the Mediterranean 1363 Basin in Androsace vitaliana (dark blue), Papaver alpinum (yellow), Cheirolophus intybaceus (red), 1364 Armeria pungens (lilac), Juniperus thurifera (light blue), Anthemis secundirramea (green), Linaria 1365 Sect. Versicolores (orange), interpreted from Dixon et al. (2009), Kropf et al. (2006), Garnatje et al. 1366 (2012), Piñeiro et al. (2007), Terrab et al. (2008b), Lo Presti and Oberprieler (2011) and 1367 Fernández-Mazuecos and Vargas (2011), respectively. 56