OVERVIEW
CHAPTER 3
CHAPTER 1
Chapter 3. Climate: Scientific Knowledge
In Chapter 3 you will analyze scientific and meteorological information specific to your community and determine what are
the climate change scenarios happening now and what scenarios will likely play out in the future.
Where can you find scientific information about your community’s specific location?
You will be using online resources to collect information, and consulting with a local expert; this could be a government
official or specialist at an NGO that has worked with climate change projects. You're going to be looking for both the
current trends of a changing climate, as well as an overview of potential future impacts. You will:
1. Conduct an online literature review
2. Investigate climate change peer-reviewed studies to collect information for your location
3. Consult with a local expert
4. Compile the information
The goal will be to gather data on local climate stimuli such as changes in temperature, precipitation, surface water flow,
and climate variability. The sources you discover will provide you with projected impacts such as changes in agricultural
production, changes in water availability, impacts on livelihood, and impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems. You will
compile this data into a table for use in comparing it to your community's experience with a changing climate.
This comparison can be very important in your plan for project sustainability and community ownership. If you discover
scientifically backed information that compares favorably with local climate knowledge, then you can begin building
bridges between scientific knowledge and the community’s local knowledge
If your community has had problems finding coping strategies—or if their coping strategies aren't as effective as they could
be, project activities that have shown scientific evidence of having worked can now be introduced to them across this
bridge. It is very powerful to offer potential improvement to techniques that the community has developed themselves.
Your project outline from Chapter 2 likely had both traditional development components and adaptation components. The
data that you collect in this assignment will help you to determine with greater certainty if your CBA project components
are indeed related to a changing climate.
Why is it important to know if CBA components are linked to climate change?
A single, unique development activity may be used for addressing traditional community development challenges, disaster
risk reduction, or adaptation to climate change challenges. For example, reforesting steep hillsides behind a community’s
village could be considered a development project if it will help recharge the village’s spring that has dried up due to
deforestation, or it could be considered a disaster risk reduction project which could help prevent flooding in the village by
reducing runoff.
But if the community’s spring ran dry because of a long-term, climate change linked drought, then the reforesting project
may not be the most appropriate solution for solving that specific problem. Knowing this will allow you to focus scarce
resources on activities that will help community members adapt to—in this example—a shortage of water and a long-term
drought.
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STEP 1
CHAPTER 3
Field Assignment 3. Step 1: Researching Scientific Climate Change Information
In this assignment you will be conducting an online literature review to determine what climate related stimuli are impacting
your community, what the projected change in those stimuli will be, and what their projected negative impacts might be
on the community.
What are climate related stimuli?
Climate change related stimuli typically include changes in temperature and moisture, but can also include variability from
the norm in temperature and moisture. Here are typical climate related stimuli:

temperature

precipitation

surface water

variable rainfall patterns
Activity 1. Online search terms: Defining the Climate Change Problem.
1. Clearly define your location and your community’s challenges by sector (health, food security, agriculture, disaster risk
reduction). The definition needs to be one short line as you are going to be using it as a search term in Internet browsers. An
example for the example project could be: "Guatemala, climate change impacts, changing temperature and
precipitation, food security, and agriculture." These terms could be arranged and rearranged in an effort to optimize search
results. Here are two examples:

Guatemala + climate change impacts on agriculture

Are temperatures increasing in Guatemala due to climate change?
You will be most likely looking for changes in temperature, precipitation and water availability—and to determine what
those changes are, whether they have already begun, whether they are anticipated in the future, and what their negative
impacts will be.
Where’s the Evidence about Climate Change?
2. Conduct an online review for information. This is an informal review—but one that can generate good search results due
to the specificity of your community's definition. Make a note of the titles and links for the information that you find and write
a short paragraph summarizing their content.
You will be rewarded with a wide range of information. Try and avoid popular press and focus instead on studies performed
by respected institutions.
3. Using your Internet browser—or preferably a university search engine—search for peer-reviewed scientific papers, or
systematic reviews that address your community’s location and challenges they face. Make a note of the titles and links to
the scientific papers and write a short paragraph summarizing their content.
Activity 2: Meet with a local expert.
4. Find someone who has had experience in climate change or in adaptation in your community’s location with whom you
could meet, speak on the telephone with, or correspond by e-mail. This person could be from a governmental weather
office, or they could be a climate change specialist at an international NGO.
Your goal in doing this is two-fold. First, you want to see if they have information that corroborates or adds to what you
learned in your literature search. Secondly, it could be very useful for you to be able to communicate with an expert as you
continue to more fully develop your project.
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STEP 1
CHAPTER 3
Text Box 3.1
Course Project Example
Field Assignment 3. Step 1: Researching Scientific Climate Change Information
Part 1. Defining the Climate Change Problem: Assessing local climate change information online
I defined my areas of interest as Guatemala, climate change impacts, changing temperature and precipitation, food
security, and agriculture. I used various combinations of these terms within my Internet search engine to search for literature.
There were quite a few papers discussing a range of CC challenges, but I focused only on those papers that specifically
addressed my areas of interest above.
Internet Search: Are temperatures increasing in Guatemala due to climate change?
World Bank (2009) Guatemala Country Note: Climate Change Aspects in Agriculture. Washington, D.C.: World
Bank. Online: Available HTTP: <http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTLAC/Resources/Climate_GuatemalaWeb.pdf>
(accessed 12 April 2012).
Summary.
This study expects a median temperature increase of 3.0°C by the year 2050 and a reduction in
precipitation during the normal rainy season, periods of drought and an intensification of heat waves with
serious implications for agriculture. It is expected that evapo-transpiration will increase due to temperature
increases and precipitation reduction resulting in the expansion of semi-arid areas. The study indicates that
there could be decreases in the production of crops of up to 34% for corn and up to 66% for beans. It
expects a reduction of superficial water flow of between 10% and 50% which along with the predicted
temperature increases and precipitation reduction will result in a lower water supply for agricultural
irrigation.
Lennox, J. (ed) (2010) The Economics of Climate Change in Central America: Summary 2010. New York: United
Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). Online. Available HTTP:
<http://www.eclac.org/cgi-bin/getProd.asp?xml=/publicaciones/xml/9/41809/P41809.xml&xsl=/mexico/tpli/p9f.xsl&base=/mexico/tpl/top-bottom.xslt> (accessed 12 April 2012).
Summary.
This study indicates that climate change could cost Central America at least half its gross domestic product
by the end of this century as more extreme weather, lower crop yields and water shortages are forecast in
a region already prone to natural disasters.
The report warns that agriculture will be one of the hardest-hit sectors. "Climate change could significantly
affect food security by reducing food production and curbing direct access to food among rural families,
as well as leading to higher food prices".
The study predicts that water shortages will also cause falling production of the region's staple foods: maize,
rice, beans and coffee, a key export. These crops are particularly sensitive to rising temperatures and
declining rainfall levels, the report says. An average reduction in rainfall levels for Central America of 10 to
28 percent is expected. In Guatemala, for example, the report forecasts that a 3.5 degree Celsius rise in
temperature together with a 30 percent reduction in rainfall could lead to a 34 percent decline in maize
production and 66 percent for beans.
The Adaptation Fund (2010) Proposal for Guatemala. Washington, D. C.: The Adaptation Fund Board. Online.
Available HTTP <http://adaptation-fund.org/system/files/AFB.PPRC_.2.6%20Proposal%20for%20Guatemala.pdf>
(accessed 12 April 2012).
Summary.
Guatemala faces many hazards related to climate variability and climate change. Projections show
increases in temperature, decreases in total mean precipitation, increases in the frequency of extreme
precipitation events, as well as in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events. 10% of
Guatemalan territory faces risk of drought and more than 3,000 communities are prone to flooding.
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