MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville
Tuesday, February 09, 2016
Price Futures Group, CBOT
Chicago, IL
(312) 264-4322
jscoville@pricegroup.com
JSL, SA de CV
San Salvador, El Salvador
(503) 2260-7806
jslsadecv@comcast.net
JSL, SA
San José, Costa Rica
(506) 2282-7024
jslsa@comcast.net
COTTON
General Comments: Futures were a little higher again as traders get ready for the USDA January reports that will be released at
11:00 this morning, Chicago time. A weaker US Dollar helped demand ideas, and ideas are that the overall pace of export sales
remains strong. However, export sales have been fading the last couple of weeks after being very strong to finish 2012. Some are
wondering if planted area might be lower next year here in the US due to weak prices against competing crops. The area lost would
go mostly to Corn and Soybeans. Current weather features some precipitation in Delta and Southeast areas, but western Texas was
mostly dry. Trends are not well defined on the charts, but ideas are that the market can continue to work higher overall.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will be dry today and tomorrow, then will see rain move from west to east the balance of
the week. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will get dry weather except for some rain on Wednesday. Temperatures
will average above normal. The USDA spot price is now 70.86 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.099 million
bales, from 0.098 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 74.60, 74.40, and 73.70 March, with resistance of 75.90, 76.40, and 76.95
March.
DJ U.S. November Cotton Exports-Jan 11
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
------- In Kilograms ------Nov 12
Oct 12
Sep 12
Nov 11(*)
Upland, under 1 inch
6,531,394
7,717,194
3,278,213
15,922,219
1 to 1 1/8 inch
82,701,010 49,424,705 105,639,815
80,759,787
upland 1 1/8 and over
63,821,381 42,424,932 47,309,524
64,524,681
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc
6,455,267
7,803,475
6,008,503
7,754,824
All cotton
159,509,052 107,370,306 162,236,055 168,961,511
------- In Running 480-Pound Bales ------Nov 12
Oct 12
Sep 12
Nov 11(*)
Upland, under 1 inch
29,998
35,445
15,057
73,130
1 to 1 1/8 inch
379,843
227,006
485,200
370,927
upland 1 1/8 and over
293,129
194,856
217,291
296,359
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc
29,649
35,841
27,597
35,618
All cotton
732,619
493,148
745,144
776,034
DJ USDA January 2012-13 U.S. Cotton Harvest Estimates
Parentheses denote the number of estimates in that average and range.
December
2012-13
2011-2012
Average
Range
USDA
USDA
Production (10)
17.24
17.00-17.45
17.26
15.57
Exports (10)
12.00
11.70-12.70
11.80
11.71
Ending Stocks (10)
5.19
4.43-5.50
5.40
3.35
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed higher in consolidation trading. A weaker US Dollar helped support prices, but most traders
were getting ready for the USDA reports today. Lower production is expected after the dramatic drop in production estimates last
month from USDA due to Greening Disease. Weather remains good in Florida, although more rain would be beneficial.
Temperatures remain mild in the state, and conditions are mostly dry. Forecasts call for mostly dry conditions to continue, but
temperatures could drop a bit starting this weekend. Fruit is holding for now, and irrigation is being used by producers to hold crop
condition. Winter is here, and with Winter comes the threat for a freeze to Oranges and other fruits grown in Florida, but there is no
real cold weather in the forecast. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is continuing. Demand for domestically produced
Juice remains down from last year. Weather in Brazil is reported to be good. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures and light showers
or dry conditions.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. ICE
said that 185 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are now 185 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives. Support is at 108.00, 107.00, and 104.00 March, with resistance at
118.00, 122.00, and 126.00 March.
COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher again yesterday on a weaker US Dollar. Charts still show that all three markets are in a
trading range, with all possibly trying to complete a bottom. There is more and more talk that the market is getting ready to rally in
New York after all the selling seen in the past months. Current crop development is good this year in Brazil, and production areas
are getting beneficial rain for the developing crop. Central America crops are getting harvested, and conditions are called good
there. There are widespread reports of rust on the trees and leaves, and Roya has become a big issue as well. It is possible that
many Central America and Mexico producers will harvest much less Coffee next year if they are affected by this disease, and many
seem to be affected. We are already hearing significant loss estimates for the next crop due to Roya. Colombia is reported to have
good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.589 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 134.27 ct/lb.
Brazil should get scattered showers through the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get
scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions, but a few showers are possible in southern
Mexico and northern Central America. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil exported 24.9 million bags of
Coffee in 2012, down 17.3% from 2011. LIFFE stocks are now 10,486 lots.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 146.00, 143.00, and 141.00 March, and resistance is at 152.00,
155.00, and 157.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1900, 1870, and 1860 March, and resistance is at 1935,
1945, and 1975 March. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 182.00, 179.00, and 178.00 March, and resistance is at
188.00, 190.00, and 193.50 March.
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in consolidation trading. The market found support despite news from Brazil of
increased production. Production has been strong in Brazil so far this year, so a big production estimate had been expected. Futures
are in a trading range, but trends are turning down. News of any kind remains hard for the traders to find. There was no demand
news to support values. Big Brazil production remains negative to prices, and traders know that Indian and Thai production is in the
market, too. Conditions still look good for many production areas. The Thai crushing season is underway with good production
expected, but the crushing pace is called slow right now. Brazil production continues strong.
Overnight News: Scattered and light showers are expected in Brazil through the weekend. Temperatures should be near to above
normal. UNICA in Brazil said that December Sugar production was 1.16 million tons on a Sugarcane crush of 20.75 million tons.
Year to date Sugar production is now 34.07 million tons, up 8.84% from the previous year. The year to date Sugarcane crush is now
531.35 million tons, up 7.74% from the previous season. Ethanol production was 895.96 million liters in December and is now
21.28 million liters for the marketing year, up 3.58% from the previous year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1810 March. Support is at 1850, 1830, and 1800 March,
and resistance is at 1910, 1925, and 1945 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 494.00 March. Support is
at 507.00, 502.00, and 500.00 March, and resistance is at 516.00, 520.00, and 524.00 March.
COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher again in consolidation trading. A much weaker US Dollar helped support values. Good
arrivals in Africa are negative and are continuing. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong, and the trend for strong arrivals from there
should continue. Ivory Coast arrivals are now estimated at 809,000 tons, from 728,000 tons last year. Ghana producers are reported
to be selling as well. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Overall weather
patterns in West Africa production areas are good for harvest progress. Demand is reported weaker from the US and Europe, in part
due to current economics and in part due to changes forced by the World Bank that encouraged forward marketing of the crops. The
market needs some demand news or some other news to shake it out of the sideways to lower trade, but for now it looks like a
sideways trade is trying to develop.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia
and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get dry conditions
and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are sharply higher today at 3.864 million bags. LIFFE stocks are now 2,542 standard
delivery units, 146 large delivery units, and 3 bulk delivery units.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2235, 2205, and 2195 March, with resistance at 2275, 2290, and 2325
March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1410, 1405, and 1380 March, with resistance at 1450, 1455, and 1490 March.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information and data in
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The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not
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