G.R.E.E.N. TASK FORCE AMBER DEMERY. ERIN VAN DER HAVE. RAYMOND B. KANIU. STEPHEN DAVIES. VICTORIA CHOE TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary……………………………………………………………………………… 1 Background Information………………………………………………………………….……… 2 Financial Analysis for EU Energy Security……………………………………………………… 3 Analysis on Internal and External Markets…………………………………………….…..…….. 5 Dependency and EU Energy Security…………………………………………………...……….. 6 Safety of Nuclear Production and Transportation………………………………………..……… 8 Recommendations…………………………………………………………………………….… 12 References………………………………………………………………………………….….... 14 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The European Commission on Energy has contracted with the Generating Renewable Energy for Euro Nations (G.R.E.E.N.) Task Force to deliver recommendations about analyzing security implications. Within the Energy 2020 plan, our task force focuses primarily on ensuring secure and safe energy for citizens and businesses of the European Union. G.R.E.E.N. Task Force analyzes the challenges in the financial sector, internal and external markets, dependency on foreign countries, and nuclear energy production and transportation. In order to provide safe and secure energy for the citizen and businesses of the European Union, our task force recommends three overarching energy policy implementations: Diversification of energy for security Centralize and strengthen the governing body (EU Energy Commission) by improving communication and efficiency Centralize and connect energy infrastructure production and transportation in Europe These recommendations will aid in achieving safe and secure energy for citizens and business of the European Union. 1 G.R.E.E.N. Task Force | Energy Security in the European Union BACKGROUND INFORMATION Since the inception of the European Union (EU), energy has been at the very heart of the European community. The issue of energy has never been as important as it is today. With burgeoning population across Europe and the world at large - under limited energy resources the union grew concerned about the implications that energy, or rather the lack of it, might have on their citizens and took drastic measures to fully address the issue. Consequently, the legislative arm laid out a consolidated policy for energy in the European community. According to Europa, “it is a strategy for competitive, sustainable, and secure energy.” Aptly referred to as the “2020 Strategy,” it seeks to achieve a 20% energy savings by 2020. Combined with the “Resource Efficient Europe” initiative, the two strategies aim to make long-term changes to the production and consumption of energy while building on the already existing foundations of energy policy within the nations that make up the union. Notably, the strategy is structured around five key issues of energy: lowering energy use, forming a European energy integrated market, empowering users of energy and achieving a desirable level of safety and security, extending Europe’s leadership in the development of energy technology and innovation, and last but not least, strengthening the external dimension of the EU energy market. Further measures have been taken in the building and transportation sectors where it is strongly believed substantial energy savings could be achieved. Inasmuch as the European Commission is aware of this lofty endeavor, it still has struggled to raise funds to propel these goals rendering them almost unattainable by 2020. Restructuring these goals could lead to a more reasonable strategy especially factoring in the slow-healing wounds sustained during the infamous financial crisis. 2 With this in mind, the European Commission on Energy has contracted with the Generating Renewable Energy for Euro Nations (G.R.E.E.N.) Task Force to deliver G.R.E.E.N. Task Force | Energy Security in the European Union recommendations about analyzing security implications. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FOR EU ENERGY SECURITY Following the European crisis that unfolded in the past few years, Europe’s economy has been pushed to the brink of austerity measures. A two-speed EU has forced the well-to-do countries to come to the aid of the collapsing economies of some of its members. Cuts have had to be made and loans have been disbursed to avoid a more amplified collapse that could not only have consequences for Europe alone, but the world at large. While energy composes a critical part of the economy, the EU has had to adjust its budget accordingly to maximize its energy capacity and utilization. The Energy 2020 initiative calls for a secure, safe and affordable energy for citizens and businesses, a feat the union would like to accomplish by cutting energy costs by 20% preferably before or by the year 2020. An ambitious endeavor of such magnitude demands a closer look at the EU budget is allotted especially when many consumers do not perceive that they are better off as a result of the market opening up and bolstered competition among different suppliers. EU nations have to create a well-functioning integrated internal market that benefits consumers with broad choices and reduced prices. A confirmation of how convoluted the task has been and will continue to be, was the recent meeting called upon by the European Council president Herman van Rompuy solely dedicated to the Multi-annual Financial Framework 201420. Rompuy, like many of the EU leaders, dully noted the effort it takes to accommodate European objectives and policies into the comparatively smaller EU budget. Member states have rightfully opted for a more cynical approach by negotiating from a national interest perspective. However, looking more into the MFF 2014-20 proposal, which currently stands at €1.025 trillion, we can see how difficult it will be for the region to raise more funds for improving their energy efficiency. According to the European Wind Energy Association, the amount represents roughly 1% of EU’s GDP while national budgets are around 30-40% of national GDP. This bears G.R.E.E.N. Task Force | Energy Security in the European Union 3 a reflection on how serious the European Commission is when it comes to investing in energy. Energy and climate issues have been given a high priority as the region would like to honor commitments outlined in the 2020 policy. Even as the severity of the situation increasingly becomes well understood, funding green growth in times of austerity will be tougher than expected. Additionally, the Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan) with full support of the European Commission and the member states will try to implement a 10 year R&D plan for wind energy commonly referred to as the Wind European Industrial Initiative. It would require at least €6 billion investment of public and private resources by 2020, with more than 50% coming from industry. As shown by regional investment in renewable energy in the figure below, Europe is really trying to take a lead on renewable energy technology. Consumer opinion (above) also shows a wide support for renewable energy regardless of the cost. The general consensus seems to be that people do not mind paying relatively more for G.R.E.E.N. Task Force | Energy Security in the European Union 4 their energy as long as it is produced from renewable energy resources. To add more wood to the fire, almost €500 billion spent on energy outside of Europe could be redirected internally to create sustainable economic development. A study conducted by IEA shows that if €1 billion is invested in coal, 5,000 jobs could be created, but invest a similar amount on renewable energy and the jobs created become ten times more. Creating these opportunities will not be enough, there needs to be a great oversight on the policies created. ERELECTIC firmly believes that existing funding schemes and specific EU financial support (smart grids, interconnections, public acceptance of technologies, infrastructure, etc.) will propel the little progress that has been achieved towards providing safe, secure, and affordable energy for citizens and businesses. ANALYSIS ON INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL MARKETS The European Union’s Internal Market, created in 1992, and was implemented to create a system where goods, persons, services and capital could move more freely within the EU’s borders. The market is essential for continued growth of employment and prosperity for member states, both for citizens and businesses. Continued legislation is to be passed to move forward with these objectives, and as they are mutually beneficial with the goals of “Energy 2020”, a step closer to clean, safe and affordable energy sources.1 The Internal Market of the EU may make the transportation and sale of resources more convenient, but as member states often have their own energy legislation, roadblocks have come in the way of continued progress. Differing policies amongst the more powerful EU members such as Germany and France over energy security in particular have made the process of energy diversification and regulation for the whole of the European Union nearly impossible. While Germany is downsizing their nuclear energy program, “France has shown no sign of falling out 1 Europa. Internal Market. Summaries of EU legislation. Internal. Accessed on November 21, 2012. http://europa.eu/legislation_summaries/internal_market/index_en.htm. G.R.E.E.N. Task Force | Energy Security in the European Union 5 of love with nuclear, and Poland is just falling in love with it, intending to build two atomic power stations.”2 In order for “Energy 2020” to be a successful endeavor, more must be done to unify nation states and come to a conclusive solution that is best for the whole of the EU. The external market is also a player in the battle for clean, safe and affordable energy, as many member states continue to have a reliance on foreign oil and energy. These conditions not only lead to the loss of income for the EU, but also compromise existing safety regulations. 3 Tighter enforcement must be sought, and a more concrete solution to strengthening the internal market, instead of continued financing of external markets must be implemented. DEPENDENCY AND EU ENERGY SECURITY In order to provide secure energy for citizens and businesses of the European Union, it is essential to diversify energy resource origins and sectors. According to Energy Information Administration, in 2006, the EU’s 27 member states accounted for approximately 17 percent of the world’s total energy consumption.4 It is projected that in 2030, EU will consume 15 percent more energy than it consumed in 2000.5 Most troubling part is that in 2005, about 80 percent of the energy consumed within the EU was from fossil fuels.6 Dependence on fossil fuels is not only detrimental for climate change effects, but also for energy security. Out of the oil and gas consumed, 82 percent of oil and 57 percent of gas is imported from foreign countries. Currently, Evans, Stephen. 2011. Nuclear power in Germany: The reasons behind Chancellor Merkel’s U-Turn. BBC News. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13595171 3 European Commission. 2011. A Strategy for Competitive, Sustainable, and Secure Energy. Belgium: European Union. http://ec.europa.eu/energy/publications/doc/2011_energy2020_en.pdf 4 Belkin, Paul. 2008. The European Union’s Energy Security Challenges. Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, 5. 5 Cohen, Ariel. 2007. Europe’s Strategic Dependence on Russian Energy. Backgrounder. The Heritage Foundation, 12. 6 Belkin, Paul. 2008. The European Union’s Energy Security Challenges. Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, 5. 2 G.R.E.E.N. Task Force | Energy Security in the European Union 6 Russia, Norway, the Middle East, and North Africa are the largest suppliers of EU energy. This section analyzes EU’s energy dependency and concludes with recommendations. EU energy security is heavily dependent on Russian Federation. As of 2009, EU imports about 34 percent of its natural gas from Russian Federation, 31 percent from Norway, and 14 percent from Algeria. Furthermore, EU imports about 35 percent of its crude oil from OPEC, 33 percent from Russian Federation, and 15 percent from Norway.7 After the Russia-Ukraine and Russia- Belarus gas and oil crises, it is evident that Russia is not reliable as an energy partner especially when it is willing to use its energy power as a political weapon. In order to provide energy security for the EU, it is essential to secure current partnership agreement with Russian Federation, reduce fossil fuel consumption and reach out to other regions for energy resources. Currently, Russian Federation is in violation of the Energy Charter Treaty in 1997. Russia is “using politically motivated pricing schemes and monopolistic practices.”8 Russia has signed the charter, but refuses to implement it because the Russian Duma has not ratified the charter. According to the Article 45, “Russia already has a binding treaty obligation with the EU member states and is in violation of the treaty.”9 Therefore, the EU Commission needs to enforce the Energy Charter Treaty on Russian Federation to secure energy agreements and promote transparent and reliable practices by Russian Federation. Furthermore, the EU Commission needs to diversify the sources of oil and gas. It is essential to “secure supplies of gas and oil directly to the European Union, without the use of nontransparent middlemen. [This means that EU has to] work more closely with Azerbaijan and Europe’s Energy Portal. 2012. Dependency. Accessed November 21, 2012, http://www.energy.eu. Cohen, Ariel. 2007. Europe’s Strategic Dependence on Russian Energy. Backgrounder. The Heritage Foundation, 12. 9 Smith, Keith. 2008. Russia and European Energy Security: Divide and Dominate. Washington: Center for Strategic International Studies, 22. 7 8 G.R.E.E.N. Task Force | Energy Security in the European Union 7 Kazakhstan to secure a reliable supply of gas for the Nabucco pipeline.”10 In order to shift imports to non-Russian sources, it is important to consider the time and cost of energy transportation infrastructure. According to projections, EU’s dependence on foreign oil and gas will remain extremely high. Therefore, dependence on Russian oil and gas will continue for the EU; however, the EU Commission can increase the energy security by implementing tougher regulations and monitoring system on Russian Federation or encouraging Russian Federation to ratify and implement the Energy Charter Treaty. Finally, the EU Commission needs to diversify sources of oil and gas imports by creating direct supply partnerships. SAFETY OF NUCLEAR PRODUCTION AND TRANSPORTATION Nuclear power is currently providing one third of all grid electricity in the EU, and is responsible for two thirds of EU carbon-free electricity. Despite the EU commitment to increasing renewable energy sources and energy efficiency by 20% by the year 2020, it is unlikely that nuclear energy will be completely replaced anytime soon. The expectation for nuclear power to continue to be an important component in the EU’s energy diversification strategy will require stringent safety standards that will protect the public and the environment as the EU moves toward its energy goals. There are no final waste disposal sites in the EU, with all high level radioactive waste (with a half-life of 500,000 years) currently being stored in interim storage facilities with lifespans of 50-100 years. It is essential to develop deep geological disposal sites to safely store radioactive waste from 143 operational nuclear power plants in 14 member countries, producing 7000 cubic meters of waste from spent fuel rods per year. These permanent underground 10 Ibid, 23. G.R.E.E.N. Task Force | Energy Security in the European Union 8 disposal sites must be selected with the approval from the public, through a transparent process, and with careful consideration to effects on natural resources such as ground water and soil.11 Furthermore, safety standards are necessary for protecting the public from ionizing radiation, which can contaminate the atmosphere, ground water, and soil, when introduced to the environment through point source effluents from nuclear facilities. Regular inspections and monitoring teams with radiation response protocols must be established and shared amongst member states with an appropriate set of guidelines and procedures in the event of leakage or fallout, with regularly monitored exposure limits set at each facility. The effect of nuclear energy wastes on people is an issue that remains in the minds of populations nearby nuclear plants. However, it is also an issue where the beliefs of people often differ from the expectations of scientists and policymakers. Many nations in the European Union, such as France, cite the fact that nuclear power is one of two global non-carbon-emitting energy resources as reasons to continue in its use.12 The production and utilization of nuclear energy does not emit any CO2 emissions and could actually reduce global CO2 emissions by 30% if expanded.13 This would actually aid in mitigating the many health problems that arise from air pollution. Despite this, some EU nations like Germany have pushed to reduce the amount of nuclear power plants within and near their borders and to focus on developing renewable energy sources. Other countries, such as Poland and France, have pushed back. The argument is that nuclear energy emits that the same amount of greenhouse gases as renewables, and emits much less than 11 European Commission. Nuclear Energy. Accessed November 19, 2012. http://ec.europa.eu/energy/nuclear/forum/forum_en.htm. 12 Van der Zwaan, Bob. "International Journal of Global Energy Issues." International Journal of Global Energy Issues. 4-5. Web. 29 Nov. 2012. <http://www.pugwash.org/reports/pic/56/1-3-van_der_Zwaan.pdf> 13 Ibid. G.R.E.E.N. Task Force | Energy Security in the European Union 9 do coal, oil, or natural gas.1 Yet, the possibility of reactor accidents and the health and environmental issues that could follow have increased public fear of using nuclear energy. The recent disaster with the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant has led to increased fears of contaminated food and water, and possible radiation exposure, which could lead to lethal health problems like cancer. This issue is accentuated by the lack of research into the long-term health effects of nuclear disasters, a great negative due to the limited knowledge of what to expect should a disaster occur. Some countries such as Bulgaria also react negatively to nuclear plants being placed near their borders by other countries. The immediate blowback by Bulgarian citizens when Turkey considered placing a nuclear plant near a major city was based on the effects it would have on tourism and the fishing industry which would likely be affected by wastes from the plant.14 Finally, a great concern for all nations participating in the production of nuclear is the possibility of nuclear proliferation. If terrorist groups manage to steal nuclear materials from EU nationstates, these materials can then be used to make bombs that could be used not only against EU nations but also against other countries around the world. The negative ideas associated with nuclear energy mostly result from ‘what-if’ situations. Worries generally center on what might happen if an accident occurs at the reactor site or what might happen if fissile material is stolen. However, the positives associated with the use of nuclear energy are a definite. The amount of greenhouse gases produced are minimal and are equivalent with those emitted by renewable energy sources. Furthermore, the reduced carbon emissions would positively affect populations surrounding the plant as well as global populations for years to come. For this reason, it is recommended that the use of nuclear energy by the 14 "Ruling party MPs seek clarity on reports of Turkey nuclear plant planned near Bulgarian border." Sofia Globe [Bulgaria] 11 05 2012, Web. 29 Nov. 2012. http://sofiaglobe.com/2012/11/05/ruling-party-mps-seek-clarity-onreports-of-turkey-nuclear-plant-planned-near-bulgarian-border/. G.R.E.E.N. Task Force | Energy Security in the European Union 10 European Union continue. However, it is also recommended that nuclear power plants be held accountable for possible outcomes should an accident occur. Safety assessments and reviews by other member states are critical for troubleshooting and sharing information for safety improvements, as well as adhering to the rules and regulations established by the international regulatory agencies. This set of best practices, as well as continuing to research and develop new ways of maintaining and building upon the current nuclear infrastructure within the EU will help keep the public safe and informed as the EU pursues cleaner energy goals in 2020. 11 G.R.E.E.N. Task Force | Energy Security in the European Union RECOMMENDATIONS In order to provide safe and secure energy for the citizen and businesses of the European Union, our task force recommends three overarching energy policy implementations: Diversification of energy for security Centralize and strengthen the governing body (EU Energy Commission) by improving communication and efficiency Centralize and connect energy infrastructure production and transportation in Europe Furthermore, each section of analysis provides a more detailed recommendation: We recommend establishing oversight on financial policies. Specifically, EU financial support (smart grids, interconnections, public acceptance of technologies, infrastructure, etc.) will propel the little progress that has been achieved towards providing safe, secure, and affordable energy for citizens and businesses. We recommend enforcing tighter and a more concrete solution to strengthening the internal market, instead of continued financing of external markets. The external market is a player in the battle for clean, safe and affordable energy, as many member states continue to have a reliance on foreign oil and energy. These conditions not only lead to the loss of income for the EU, but also compromise existing safety regulations.15 We recommend to reducing dependency on fossil fuels consumption by investing more on renewable energy sources. Then, implementing tougher regulations and monitoring system on Russian Federation or encouraging Russian Federation to implement the Energy Charter Treaty. Furthermore, the EU Commission needs to diversify sources of oil and gas imports by creating direct supply partnerships. 12 15 European Commission. 2011. A Strategy for Competitive, Sustainable, and Secure Energy. Belgium: European Union. http://ec.europa.eu/energy/publications/doc/2011_energy2020_en.pdf G.R.E.E.N. Task Force | Energy Security in the European Union We recommend that the use of nuclear energy by the European Union continue. However, it is also recommended that nuclear power plants be held accountable for possible outcomes should an accident occur. Safety assessments and reviews by other member states are critical for troubleshooting and sharing information for safety improvements, as well as adhering to the rules and regulations established by the international regulatory agencies. This set of best practices, as well as continuing to research and develop new ways of maintaining and building upon the current nuclear infrastructure within the EU will help keep the public safe and informed as the EU pursues cleaner energy goals in 2020. 13 G.R.E.E.N. Task Force | Energy Security in the European Union REFERENCES Belkin, Paul. 2008. The European Union’s Energy Security Challenges. Congressional Research Service Report for Congress. Cohen, Ariel. 2007. Europe’s Strategic Dependence on Russian Energy. Backgrounder. The Heritage Foundation. Evans, Stephen. 2011. Nuclear power in Germany: The reasons behind Chancellor Merkel’s UTurn. BBC News. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13595171 European Commission. Nuclear Energy. Accessed November 19, 2012. http://ec.europa.eu/energy/nuclear/forum/forum_en.htm. European Commission. 2011. A Strategy for Competitive, Sustainable, and Secure Energy. Belgium: European Union. http://ec.europa.eu/energy/publications/doc/2011_energy2020_en.pdf Europe’s Energy Portal. 2012. Dependency. Accessed November 21, 2012, http://www.energy.eu. Europa. Internal Market. Summaries of EU legislation. Internal. Accessed on November 21, 2012. http://europa.eu/legislation_summaries/internal_market/index_en.htm. "Ruling party MPs seek clarity on reports of Turkey nuclear plant planned near Bulgarian border." Sofia Globe [Bulgaria] 11 05 2012, Web. 29 Nov. 2012. http://sofiaglobe.com/2012/11/05/ruling-party-mps-seek-clarity-on-reports-of-turkeynuclear-plant-planned-near-bulgarian-border/. Smith, Keith. 2008. Russia and European Energy Security: Divide and Dominate. Washington: Center for Strategic International Studies. Van der Zwaan, Bob. "International Journal of Global Energy Issues." International Journal of Global Energy Issues. 4-5. Web. 29 Nov. 2012. <http://www.pugwash.org/reports/pic/56/1-3-van_der_Zwaan.pdf> 14 G.R.E.E.N. Task Force | Energy Security in the European Union