






Question 1:
“What should Australia’s post-2020
target be and how should it be
expressed?
“In responding to this question you
could consider the base year (e.g.
1990/2000/2005), the end year
(e.g. 2025/2030), the type of target
and why the suggested target is
preferred.”
Answer 1:
Australia should not set any target.
Alternatively, if we need to set a
target to keep a place at the
international table, the target
should be minimal and non-binding.
Reasoning 1:
Australia has shown negligible
global warming since the start of
reliable
surface
temperature
measurements.
The Commonwealth’s Issues Paper 2015 notes a claim from
CSIRO and BoM –
“…. that Australia has warmed by 0.9 degrees
C since 1910 ….”
That claim is highly contestable.
While it might be numerically true for the 114-year
homogenised ACORN-SAT dataset, the longer,
unadjusted temperature change for Australia shows
roughly a third to a half of that warming.
This outcome is derived from 3 official Commonwealth
publications. Please click for detailed calculations.
1) Official Year Book of the Commonwealth of
Australia, issue #39 published in 1953 including
tabulated mean temperature readings from
1911 to 1940 at 44 locations across the country
used by the Weather Bureau at that time to
accurately portray Australia's climate record on
the world stage.
4) Official Year Book of the Commonwealth of
Australia, issue #40 published in 1954 including
tabulated mean temperature readings at a
further 40 locations across the country to give
84 stations able to be compared to CDO and
ACORN.
5) Meteorological Data for Certain Australian
Localities published in 1933 by the Council for
Scientific and Industrial Research CSIR collating
minima and maxima from the earliest records at
hundreds of weather stations up to and
including 1931.
These calculations were done mainly by a small group
of volunteers, with Chris Gilham being principal
compiler of this set of data. He has authorised its
unconditional use.
Agencies such as CSIRO and BoM seem not to have
publicised these official compilations and their
comparisons with recent temperatures. Such agencies
might argue that the purpose of constructing the
adjusted ACORN-SAT data set was to correct errors in
these official figures. That argument mostly fails,
because the official figures from the Year Books and
CSIR Pamphlet were already quality controlled at the
times of their publications.
These agencies might also argue that a low average
warming figure for Australia, say 0.3 to 0.5C per
century, would be at odds with measurements from
other countries, or the rest of the world. This is not so.
For example, each of the following trends is for data
from 1850 onwards:
1. UK Met Office HadCRUT4 series: 0.46C per century
2. UK Central England temperature series: 0.46C per century
3. New Zealand NIWA 7-station series: 0.47C per century
4. Northern Ireland Armagh series: 0.6C per century
Unless and until the early Year Book & CSIR data cited here
can be shown to be wrong, it must be accepted that
Australia’s historical warming pattern is so small that it can
be essentially ignored.
ACORN-SAT is the odd man out.
It follows that the Greenhouse Gas Hypothesis is not
following the hypothesised scenario for Australia.
There is essentially no evidence that atmospheric CO2, for
example, is causing an Australian problem sufficiently large
to require control through emission targets.
Further, the much-cited pause in the Global Averaged
Surface Temperature GAST is casting doubt on the
whole GHG Hypothesis. The graph that follows shows
how satellite-based measurements of temperatures
of the lower troposphere are presented by the official
body, RSS.
There are about 6 main global data series, with RSS
being the one that shows the longest period of no
statistically valid warming in the time span starting now
and working to earlier dates. That period is now 18
years and 3 months for RSS data. The shortest period is
from the NASA GISS group, at 14 years and 7 months.
(Graph credit Werner Brozek)
The atmospheric concentration of CO2 increased over this
period, but there is no correlation between global CO2 and
global temperature.
(Graph credit Danley Wolfe)
Summary 1:
The Australian Government should be
careful to avoid committing large sums of
money to a series of global warming
hypotheses that are failing to be verified.

What would the impact of that target be on Australia? In
responding to this question you could, for example,
consider the impact on our economy, jobs, business and
on the environment.

Which further policies complementary to the Australian
Government’s direct action approach should be
considered to achieve Australia’s post-2020 target and
why?