EPBC Nomination to list in the Endangered category: Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Anyone may nominate a native species, ecological community or key threatening process for listing under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 (EPBC Act). You are invited to provide comment to assist the Threatened Species Scientific Committee (the Committee) with its assessment of a nomination to list the Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) as endangered under the EPBC Act. The Committee welcomes the views of experts, stakeholders and the general public on nominations to further inform its nomination assessment process. In order to determine if a species, ecological community or threatening process is eligible for listing under the EPBC Act, a rigorous scientific assessment of its status is undertaken. These assessments are undertaken by the Committee to determine if an item is eligible for listing against a set of criteria as set out in the guidelines for nominating and assessing threatened species and ecological communities, and threatening processes. These are available at: http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/nominations.html To assist in this matter, the Committee has identified a series of questions on which it seeks specific comments (Part A). The nomination for this item is provided in Part B. Individual nominations may vary considerably in quality. Therefore in addition to the information presented in the nomination, the Committee also takes into account published data and considers other information received when it prepares its advice for the Minister. Responses to this consultation will be provided in full to the Minister for Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities. In providing comments, please provide references to published data where possible. Should the Committee use the information you provide in formulating its advice, the information will be attributed to you and referenced as ‘personal communication’ unless you provide references or otherwise attribute this information. The Committee’s advice may be published on the department’s website at completion of the assessment and decision by the Minister. Information provided through consultation may be subject to freedom of information legislation and court processes. It is also important to note that under the EPBC Act, the deliberations and recommendations of the Committee are confidential until the Minister has made a final decision on the nomination, unless otherwise determined by the Minister. The views expressed within the attached nomination (Part B) do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Australian Government. The Australian Government and the Committee do not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the contents of the nomination. Included here for your consideration of the nomination are: Part A — specific questions identified by the Committee Part B — nomination Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 1 of 33 Part A — Questions on the Christmas Island flying-fox 1. Can you comment on whether or not there is sufficient evidence to consider this entity a valid sub-species? 2. Are you able to provide an estimate of the current population size of mature adults of this sub-species? If the level of uncertainty is such that you are unable to provide a single number, please frame your answer in terms of an estimated minimum, estimated maximum, best estimate, and your overall level of confidence in these estimates: 3. Lower bound Upper bound Best Estimate Confidence (please answer in the range of 50–100%) Do you accept James et al.’s (2007) estimate of 1,500 for the total population size of the subspecies? If not, why? (James DJ, Dale GJ, Retallick K and Orchard K (2007). Christmas Island Biodiversity Monitoring Programme: Christmas Island flying-fox Pteropus natalis. An assessment of conservation status and threats. Report to Department of Finance and Deregulation, and Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts. ) 4. Are you able to comment on the extent of decline in Christmas Island flying-fox population size over the last approximately 27 years? (Note: the Department notes varying estimates for age at first sexual maturity (particularly) and longevity, but for the purpose of this assessment, generation length for the Christmas Island flying-fox has been estimated at 9 years. The listing guidelines consider decline over a period of three generation lengths, which in this case is 27 years.) If the level of uncertainty is such that you are unable to provide a single number (e.g., percentage decline), please frame your answer in terms of an estimated minimum, estimated maximum, best estimate, and the overall level of confidence in these estimates: Lower bound Upper bound Best Estimate Confidence (please answer in the range of 50–100%) 5. Do you agree that the threats listed are correct and that their effect on the sub-species is significant? 6. To what degree are the identified threats likely to impact on the sub-species in the future? 7. Does the current and predicted rate of decline seem reasonable? Do you consider that the way this has been derived is appropriate? 8. Have you been involved in developing this nomination? If so, in what capacity? 9. Do you agree with the proposal to list this sub-species? Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 2 of 33 Part B — Nomination Section 1 - Legal Status, Distribution, Biological, Ecological Conservation Theme 1. Not applicable - there is no N/A conservation theme for the 2011 assessment period. Taxonomy 2. What are the currently accepted scientific and common name/s for the species (please include Indigenous names, where known)? Note any other scientific names that have been used recently. Note the species authority and the Order and Family to which the species belongs (Family name alone is sufficient for plants, however, both Order and Family name are required for insects). 3. Is this species conventionally accepted? If not, explain why. Is there any controversy about the taxonomy? Christmas Island flying-fox Pteropus melanotus natalis. [Across its international range, the species as a whole is named Blyth’s flying-fox.] [Order Chiroptera; Family Pteropodidae] The taxonomic status of this entity is poorly resolved. It was originally described (Thomas 1887) as a distinct species restricted to Christmas Island. Without substantial evidence, Chasen (1940) subsumed it and a series of previously-recognised species (P. melanotus [from the Andaman and Nicobar islands], P. tytleri [from the South Andaman and Rutlans islands] and P. modiglianii [from the Mentawi islands]) as subspecies within P. melanotus. There remains some uncertainty about the subspecific bounds for taxa other than natalis: Mickleburgh et al. (1992) include P. m. melanotus (Nicobar Islands), P. m. modiglianii (Enggano Island), P. m. niadicus (Nias Island), P. m. satyrus (North Andaman Islands) and P. m. tytleri (South Andaman Islands). However, there has been no genetic or morphological assessment of this treatment. Tidemann (1985) considered the case for inclusion of natalis within P. melanotus was “unlikely given the degree of separation involved and the tendency towards a high degree of speciation in the genus”. Genetic work currently in progress (XXXX XXXX, pers. comm., 2012) possibly indicates that specific, rather than subspecific, status is warranted for natalis. The taxonomic status of the Christmas Island flying-fox needs to be resolved with molecular phylogenetic work considering relationships with other flying-foxes from the northern Indian Ocean and south-east Asia populations. 4. If the species is NOT conventionally accepted, please provide: n/a (i) a taxonomic description of the Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 3 of 33 species in a form suitable for publication in conventional scientific literature; OR (ii) evidence that a scientific institution has a specimen of the species and a written statement signed by a person who has relevant taxonomic expertise (has worked, or is a published author, on the class of species nominated), that the person thinks the species is a new species. 5. Is this species taxonomically distinct (Taxonomic distinctiveness – a measure of how unique a species is relative to other species)? No particular taxonomic distinctiveness – the genus Pteropus is speciose. In the Christmas Island context, it may now be taxonomically distinct. Of five endemic mammal taxa present at the time of the Island’s settlement (1890s), the flying-fox is the only native mammal species now known to be extant (the persistence of the Christmas Island shrew is uncertain, with last record in 1985: Schulz 2004). Legal Status 6. What is the species’ current conservation status under Australian and State/Territory Government legislation? 7. Does the species have specific protection (e.g. listed on an annex or appendix) under other legislation or intergovernmental arrangements, e.g. Convention on International Trade in Endangered Fauna and Flora (CITES), Convention on Migratory Species (CMS). This subspecies occurs only on the Australian external territory of Christmas Island. It is not listed as threatened in any Australian jurisdiction. The distribution of the taxon is restricted to Christmas Island, mostly (63%) included within a national park, where it is protected. Under EPBC Act regulations, it is also afforded some protection in those parts of Christmas Island outside the Park area. All flying-foxes (Pteropus spp.) are listed under CITES Appendix II. The species Pteropus melanotus is listed as Vulnerable by the IUCN, with the comment that “if the Christmas Island population was found to be specifically distinct, it would be assessed as Critically Endangered.” (http://www.iucnredlist.org/apps/redlist/details/18740/0). Note The Christmas Island flying-fox was nominated previously (in 2007), but was found not eligible for listing (http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/s pecies/pteropus-melanotus-natalis.html). Since that assessment, the IUCN has rated the taxon (if considered a species) as “Critically Endangered”, and the Christmas Island Expert Working Group (Beeton et al. 2010) has considered its conservation outlook cause for serious concern, and recommended a series of “urgent” actions, including “To avoid a repeat of the Pipistrelle extinction for the island’s remaining native mammal, it is imperative that a recognisable ‘trigger point’ be established that facilitates immediate management interventions. These should include the commencement of active demographic monitoring, a screening of blood for assessment of pesticide residues and potential antibodies Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 4 of 33 to diseases, and a captive breeding program as insurance against probable extinction.” The material presented here includes some information not presented in the previous consideration of this species. Description 8. Give a brief description of the species’ appearance, including size and/or weight, and sex and age variation if appropriate; social structure and dispersion (e.g. solitary/clumped/flocks). 9. Give a brief description of the species’ ecological role (for example, is it a ‘keystone’ or ‘foundation’ species, does it play a role in processes such as seed dispersal or pollination). The Christmas Island flying-fox is a relatively small Pteropus (weight 250-500 g), described as “uniform nearblack, longish fur (giving a chubby appearance); vague reddish collar in some individuals” (Tidemann and Richards 2008). Individuals mostly roost in groups. Unlike most bats, it is active not only at night but also during part of the day. Flying-foxes are recognised to be keystone species, playing a significant role in pollination and dispersal of plants with fleshy fruits. This role may be especially important on islands, where flying-foxes may be the only species with this ecological function (Cox et al. 1991; Cox and Elmqvist 2000). Such is the case for this species on Christmas Island, where there are no other extant bats, the only other vertebrate frugivore is the Christmas Island imperial pigeon Ducula whartoni, and there are no other specialised vertebrate pollinators. The Christmas Island Expert Working Group noted: “The significance of the endemic Christmas Island Flying-fox in maintaining key ecosystem processes in the rainforest of Christmas Island cannot be overestimated and this taxon remains an important ‘keystone’ species.” (Beeton et al. 2010). Australian Distribution 10. Describe the species’ current and past distribution in the Australian distribution and, if available, attach a maps noting the source and the datasets used to create these. 11. What is the extent of occurrence (in km2) for the species (described in Attachment A); explain how it was calculated and provide information on data sources. a. b. What is the current extent of occurrence? What data are there to indicate past declines in extent of occurrence (if available, include data that indicates the percentage decline over the past 10 years or 3 generations whichever is longer)? The Christmas Island flying-fox is endemic to the 135 km2 Christmas Island. It has never been reported beyond this island. Its former and current distribution extends across the entire island. Christmas Island is 135 km2. This corresponds to the extent of occurrence of this species. 135 km2. Some (James et al. (2007) considers three of six) historically known roost sites are no longer occupied, but the species still forages across the extent of its former range. Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 5 of 33 c. What data are there to indicate future changes in extent of occurrence (if available, include data that indicates the percentage decline over 10 years or 3 generations whichever is longer (up to a maximum of 100 years in the future) where the time period is a continuous period that may include a component of the past)? 12. What is the area of occupancy (in km2) for the species (described in Attachment A); explain how it was calculated and provide information on data sources a. b. c. What is the current area of occupancy? What data are there to indicate past declines in area of occupancy (if available, include data that indicates the percentage decline over the past 10 years or 3 generations whichever is longer)? What data are there to indicate future changes in area of occupancy (if available, include data that indicates the percentage decline over 10 years or 3 generations whichever is longer (up to a maximum of 100 years in the future) where the time period is a continuous period that may include a component of the past)? 13. How many natural locations do you consider the species occurs in and why? Where are these located? Provide latitude, longitude, map datum and location name, where available, in an attached table. No information available. The total area of the three known existing maternity roost sites (Hosnie’s Spring, McMicken Point [Dolly Beach] and Greta Beach) is ca. 10 ha. This may be considered to comprise the entire breeding area, and hence area of occupancy. If not, the area of occupancy is the same as the extent of occurrence for this species. See 12. Some previously known communal roosts are no longer used. For example, roosts were recorded near Daniel Roux cave and Middle Point in the 1980s (Tidemann 1985). No roosts have been recorded at these sites in more recent studies (James et al. 2007). No information available The species occurs at only one natural location – Christmas Island. During foraging it may occur across the entire Island. Known main roost sites are presented in Figure 1, recognising that there are also some smaller (nonmaternity) roost sites. The term 'location' defines a geographically or ecologically distinct area. 14. Give locations of other populations: captive/propagated populations; populations recently re-introduced to the wild; and sites for proposed population reintroductions. Note if these sites have been identified in recovery plans. Provide latitude, longitude, map datum and location name, where available, in an attached table. 15. Is the species’ distribution severely fragmented? What is the No other populations exist. All individuals occur in one population. Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 6 of 33 cause of this fragmentation? Describe any biological, geographic, human-induced or other barriers causing this species’ populations to be fragmented. Severely fragmented refers to the situation in which increased extinction risk to the taxon results from most individuals being found in small and relatively isolated subpopulations (in certain circumstances this may be inferred from habitat information). These small subpopulations may go extinct, with a reduced probability of recolonisation. 16. Departmental Use Only: Global Distribution 17. Describe the species’ global distribution. 18. Give an overview of the global population’s size, trends, threats and security of the species outside Australia. If natalis is considered a subspecies of P. melanotus, then the species also occurs on a small set of islands in the north-eastern Indian Ocean, notably the Andaman islands, Nicobar islands, Rutlans islands, the Mentawi islands and Sumatra. The IUCN recognises the global status of P. melanotus as vulnerable, due to small total population size, small area of occupancy and continuing decline, in part due to hunting and extensive habitat clearance on some islands. The population on Enggano Island is believed to have been extirpated following a severe typhoon (http://www.iucnredlist.org/apps/redlist/details/18740/0) 19. Explain the relationship between the Australian population and the global population, including: a. What percentage of the global population occurs in Australia; b. Is the Australian population distinct, geographically separate or does part or all of the population move in/out of Australia’s jurisdiction (give an overview; details in Movements section); Do global threats affect the Australian population? c. The taxon Pteropus melanotus natalis is restricted to Christmas Island. The population sizes of other subspecies of P. melanotus are not known. There is no movement of the taxon P. melanotus natalis into or out of Australia. The Christmas Island flying-fox may be affected by introduction of new diseases to the island, and potentially by increased risk of severe cyclones associated with global climate change. Surveys and Monitoring 20. Has the species been reasonably well surveyed? Provide an overview of surveys to date and the likelihood of the species’ its current known distribution and/or population size being its actual distribution and/or population size. Include references documenting the Flying-foxes in general are somewhat difficult to survey, because the location of roosting camps, and the relative and absolute number of individuals in these camps may be mercurial, changing seasonally and even from day-to-day. A further problem is that – at least for the Christmas Island flying-fox – an unknown proportion of the population may Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 7 of 33 current known distribution and location records and survey methodology where available. roost away from communal camps, either singly or in small groups (Tidemann 1985). Nonetheless, counts at communal camps are the most effective way to estimate population size, with nearsynchronous counts at all known camps being the most effective means of dealing with irregular shifts of individuals between camps. In the case of the Christmas Island flying-fox, there are few (known) camps, and at least some of these are known to have been relatively permanent and long-used (notably Hosnies Spring: Tidemann 1985; James et al. 2007). Tidemann (1985) attempted to estimate total population size through counting all individuals at all known camps and then adding a further guess for the number of individuals roosting solitarily or in small (and unknown) camps. Subsequently Orchard (2006) and James et al. (2007) undertook wide-ranging searches and concluded that there were then few individuals roosting away from the then three known camps, suggesting that this proportion had declined considerably since Tidemann’s 1984 study. The number of individuals in flying-fox colonies has been estimated through ground counts (where the observer walks through the camp and attempts to count all individuals roosting in every tree) and exit counts (where the observer is based at a vantage point outside the camp area and attempts to count all the bats emerging from the camp at dusk). Both procedures have been used for Christmas Island flying-foxes, however the correlation between the two methods is not particularly high (James et al. 2007), and the part-diurnal activity rhythm of Christmas Island flying-foxes may make for some complications in exit counting. For flying-fox counts in mainland Australia, Westcott et al. (in prep.) considers that ground counts are preferable, because they provide greater precision, and can more readily detect population structure parameters. Ground counts of Christmas Island flying-foxes (from the Parks Australia data base) since 2006 are summarised in Attachment 1. However, some colony sites on Christmas Island (notably McMicken’s Point) are difficult to access, and there may be valid reason for using exit counts in such cases. On Christmas Island, flying foxes have also been surveyed away from their known colony sites. The Biodiversity Monitoring Program (BMP: James et al. 2007) recorded flying-foxes (and birds) in diurnal samples from a set of 128 sites across the Island (each sampled four times), but had a relatively low incidence of flying-fox presence (5%). Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 8 of 33 A subset of 109 of these sites was also sampled (four times each) at night over the period June-July 2006, with appreciably higher recording rate (82 flying-fox records, =19% of samples). To date, neither of these surveys has been repeated, but the nocturnal sampling provides a robust framework for assessing trends in abundance. Flying-foxes have also been recorded in the “Island-wide survey” (IWS), a similarly broad-scale sampling of components of the Island’s biodiversity, established initially to map the distribution of yellow crazy ants, and repeated at two-year intervals. This approach may be less robust than the BMP nocturnal sampling for flying-foxes because it is spaced over a much longer period (sampling takes about 4 months), so may involve many re-counts of the same individuals as the bats move about the Island. Furthermore, the extent to which flying-foxes have been included as target survey species has varied considerably across the years of the IWS, rendering it extremely difficult to use this source for monitoring (at least retrospectively). However, it includes very many sample points, and also records the occurrence of flying-foxes observed opportunistically (i.e. including away from fixed sampling points). The incidence of flying-fox records across IWS samples is given in Attachment 3. The geographic extent of the IWS and BMP provides an unusually high level of confidence that all main camps have been detected. 21. For species nominated as n/a extinct or extinct in the wild, please provide details of the most recent known collection, or authenticated sighting of the species, and whether additional populations are likely to exist and the basis for this assertion. Provide latitude, longitude, map datum and location name, where available. 22. Is there an ongoing monitoring programme? If so, please describe the extent and length of the programme. Currently, the species is monitored (every two years) through the IWS, and through occasional counts at colonies. The frequency of ground and exit count monitoring was very limited for the period 2009-2011. A more formal monitoring program is proposed from 2012, including annual re-counting of the BMP nocturnal sites, and synchronous ground-counts of all colony sites, at least three times per year. The disease status of this species (and some other native and introduced species) has been sampled in 2010, and Hall et al. (2011) has recommended ongoing monitoring of this status. Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 9 of 33 Life Cycle and Population 23. What is the species’ total population size in terms of number of mature individuals? How were population estimates derived and are they reliable? Are there other useful measures of population size and what are they? In the absence of figures, terms such as common, abundant, scarce can be of value. James et al. (2007) provides the most recent estimate of total population size, based on near-simultaneous counts of the known roost sites. On the basis of these counts, James et al. (2007) considered that the total population in 2006 was “between 1,500 and 2,000, but probably closer to 1,500.” “All other counts between December 2005 and August 2006 provided estimates of no more than 500 bats in the known camps and a population estimate of 5001,000 individuals.” Note that these tallies refer to the total number of individuals rather than to mature individuals. The proportion of juveniles and sub-adults in these counts is uncertain. One independent measure of the proportion of mature individuals in the total population is provided by Hall et al. (2011) who aged flying-foxes caught in mist nets for disease assay. Of 28 individuals caught (in July-August 2010), 12 (43%) were categorised as “mature”. Of 126 individuals captured by Tidemann in March and September 1984, 71 (56%) were classed by him as “sexually mature” [his Fig. 19]. Although these data are meagre, this suggests a total population of 1500 bats is likely to include about 750 mature individuals. 24. Does the species occur in a number of smaller populations? How many? For each population give the locality, numbers and trends in numbers and tenure of land (include extinct populations). Can these be considered to be subpopulations and why? Subpopulations are defined as geographically or otherwise distinct groups in the population between which there is little demographic or genetic exchange. The Christmas Island flying-fox occurs only on Christmas Island. Given that other species of flying-foxes are known to disperse for foraging over distances of 50 km in any night (e.g. Palmer and Woinarski 1999), flying-foxes on the 135 km2 Christmas Island should be considered to be a single population. This is reflected also in the chaotic variation in numbers of individuals recorded at roost sites, with such variation mostly indicating movement of individuals between roosts. Nonetheless, the extant major maternity roost sites (particularly Hosnie’s Spring, McMicken Point) merit recognition, because they are known to have been used for decades, and because they may frequently include a high proportion of the bat’s total population. Hosnie’s Spring (10o28.5’S, 105o41’E) lies within the Christmas Island National Park. The roost area also occurs within a Ramsar site. The features, ecology and management of that site have recently been reviewed (Hale and Butcher 2010), but that account fails to recognise its value for Christmas Island flying-fox, notwithstanding that the area is the main known maternity roost site, and the significant ecological role of the flyingfoxes in maintaining floristic diversity and functionality of the site. McMicken Point (Dolly Beach) (10o31.5’S, 105o40.8’E) also lies within Christmas Island National Park. Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 10 of 33 Population counts for these and other sites are presented in Attachment 1. 25. Provide details on ages of the following: a. sexual maturity; b. life expectancy; c. natural mortality. For flying-foxes generally, most females will be sexually mature in their third year (Martin and McIlwee 2002), but Tidemann (1985) considered some Christmas Island flyingfox females may be reproductively mature at six months. For pteropids generally, life expectancy is uncertain but likely to be 15-20 years (Martin and McIlwee 2002). Patterns of natural mortality in the Christmas Island flyingfox are poorly known. Tidemann (1985; Tidemann et al. 1994) reported that Christmas Island flying-foxes constituted a high proportion of the diet of feral cats (21% by weight [with incidence of 10%] of all stomach contents in 93 cat stomachs examined), in part due to the bat’s habit of foraging on fruits in low shrubs, particularly the introduced Jamaican (Japanese) cherry Muntingia calabura. 26. Reproduction For plants: When does the species flower and set fruit? What conditions are needed for this? What is the pollinating mechanism? If the species is capable of vegetative reproduction, a description of how this occurs, the conditions needed and when. Does the species require a disturbance regime (e.g. fire, cleared ground) in order to reproduce? For animals: provide overview of breeding system and of breeding success, including: when does it breed; what conditions are needed for breeding; are there any breeding behaviours that may make it vulnerable to a threatening process? The Christmas Island flying-fox has a typical flying-fox life history, with animals being long-lived but with relatively low reproductive output. Females give birth to one young per year, typically in a relatively synchronised breeding season (most births in February: Tidemann 1985; most birth between December and February: James et al. 2007). The mating system is probably polygamous or promiscuous. In most flying-foxes, females are 3 years old at first breeding, but some may breed in their second year (Martin and McIlwee 2002). In contrast, Tidemann (1985) considered that for the Christmas Island flying-fox, “females grow rapidly and can become pregnant when they are only six months old. By contrast, males are thought to take eighteen months to mature.” In a recent assessment of the health status of Christmas Island flying-foxes, Hall et al. (2011) categorised the age status of captured flyingfox as either juvenile (<1 yr), sub-adult (1-3 yrs) or adult (>3 yrs). The gestation period is five months (Tidemann 1985). Longevity for flying-foxes generally in the wild is probably 15-20 years (Martin and McIlwee 2002; Tidemann and Nelson in press). Tight coloniality and synchronised breeding may render the Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 11 of 33 species more vulnerable, with all breeding females and their dependent young localised in a few small areas (i.e. three known breeding colonies on Christmas Island) during part of the year. Other flying-foxes are known to suffer massive synchronised losses of foetuses or recently-born young under some conditions of stress, unusual food shortages or heat spells (Martin and McIlwee 2002). The low reproductive output renders the Christmas Island flying-fox (and other pteropodids) likely to be slow to recover from major mortality events. Tidemann (1985) recorded a far higher proportion of mature females than mature males in his samples, and considered that this indicated a polygamous mating system, longer period to maturity in males than in females, and shorter life-span in males than females. 27. What is the population trend for the entire species? a. What data are there to indicate past decline in size (if available, include data on rate of decline over past 10 years or 3 generations whichever is longer)? Andrews (1900) provided the first description of the ecology, status and habits of the Christmas Island flyingfox, within about ten years of the Island’s initial settlement. He noted that it was “very common all over the island, and at the settlement causes great destruction of fruit … When the wild fruits are ripe comparatively few of these bats visit the gardens, but great numbers may be seen feeding in the forest.” The next assessment of its status was by Gibson-Hill (1947), who noted that the Christmas Island flying-fox was “flourishing”, and “even a nuisance as it fed freely on the papayas”. The next account was by Tidemann (1985) who conducted a detailed study of the species in 1984. His introductory remarks note that long-term residents considered that the species had declined since Gibson-Hill’s account, with the suggestion that such decline was due to rainforest clearance. In September 1984, Tidemann counted 3500 bats at all the then known colonies (three maternity colonies and two other camps), estimated that a further 2500 bats were thought to be roosting singly or in small groups (with this estimate largely based on many bats seen roosting in small groups along the northern coastline), and hence concluded that the population then was 6000 individuals. James et al. (2007) noted that “No survey work was carried out on P. natalis during the 1990s. However, anecdotal evidence collected from long-term residents of the island suggested that dramatic population declines occurred during the mid 1990s (Orchard 2006).” and “By 2000 there was a common belief amongst Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 12 of 33 residents and regular visitors to the island that the flyingfoxes had declined over the previous decade or so”. The next quantitative assessment of its status was in 2002, as part of an environmental impact assessment in 2002: Corbett et al. (2003) sampled extensively across the Island, but recorded a maximum of 30 individual flyingfoxes, and concluded that the total population was “probably in the order of 500-1,000 individuals”. The most recent account of the species’ status was through a series of intensive studies and regular monitoring in the period 2004-07 (reported in Orchard 2006 and James et al. 2007). On the basis of these counts, Orchard (2006) estimated that the “current population levels are low, possibly as few as 500 individuals.” James et al. (2007) considered that the total population in 2006 was “between 1,500 and 2,000, but probably closer to 1,500.” This estimate was much influenced by a single count of 1,381 individuals in September 2006 which substantially exceeded other counts. “All other counts between December 2005 and August 2006 provided estimates of no more than 500 bats in the known camps and a population estimate of 500-1,000 individuals.” Ground counts of known colonies from 2006-2011 are summarised in Attachment 1. In addition to these counts, Hall et al. (2011) reported ground counts of 12 bats [with “more bats audible but not seen”] at Hosnies Spring (July 2010), 19 (exit count at Margaret Knoll of bats from Hosnies Spring) in July 2010, 4 at the Golf Course roost in July 2010, <10 flying and foraging around Flying Fish Cove (August 2010) and 11 roosting at Ethel Beach in August 2010. Hall et al. (2011) also reported that the Hosnies Spring site was “recently damaged by the collapse of a large tree”. They also noted that ”Observations at Hosnies Springs, Ethel Beach and the Golf Course revealed fewer flying foxes than reports of previous observations conveyed to us.” Orchard (2006) and James et al. (2007) both reported very few bats roosting singly or in small groups along the northern coastline (contra the observations of Tidemann (1985)). A summary interpretation of these few and intermittent markers of historic trends is that the Christmas Island flying-fox declined more or less continuously from the 1890s settlement (when “very common all over the island”) to 1984 (when Tidemann (1985) estimated the population at 6000, then declined sharply between then and the next near-comprehensive assessment of its status in 2006 (James et al. 2007). The decline over that 22 year period is about 75% (i.e. 6000 to 1500 individuals), which could be plausibly extrapolated to a decline of >80% over Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 13 of 33 the 3-generation period 1981-2011. This decline may have been an abrupt response to the 1988 storm, or more gradual and continuous, but the evidence is tenuous. The limited available information is insufficient to characterise trends since 2007, but the Island-wide Survey information suggests that the population may have stabilised, whereas the (few) ground counts suggest ongoing decline. Unusually high counts were recorded from a small number of samples around September 2007, particularly from exit counts at McMicken Point. The count on 26 September 2007 exceeds by about 1000 individuals all other counts from the same site. This data point was highly influential in the previous assessment of the conservation status of this species (of 2007-08), as it suggested the population has stabilised or begun to increase. The information was reported as “Subsequent unpublished data from Parks Australia indicate that around 2300 bats were counted in September 2007 (Parks Australia, unpubl. data, 2007b). This did not include a ground count from an as yet unidentified camp site suspected to exist near Murray Hill. Parks Australia has also made no firm estimate of the number of bats outside known camps, but estimates the total number including dispersed individuals could now be around 4000 (Parks Australia, unpubl. data, 2007b).” (Threatened Species Scientific Committee 2008: http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/species/pterop us-melanotus-natalis.html). This information appears to be at variance with the counts recorded in the ground-count data base, and with estimates made in 2007 (James et al. 2007). Counts subsequent to this September 2007 value are consistently appreciably lower than the that value, and the limited monitoring over the period 2008-2011 indicates far smaller population size. b. What data are there to indicate future changes in size (if available, include data which will indicate the percentage of decline over 10 years or 3 generations whichever in longer (up to a maximum of 100 years in the future) where the time period is a continuous period that may include a component of the past)? 28. Does the species undergo extreme natural fluctuations in population numbers, extent of occurrence or area of occupancy? To what extent and why? Extreme fluctuations can be said to occur in a number of taxa when population size or distribution area varies widely, rapidly and frequently, typically with a variation greater than one order of magnitude (i.e. a tenfold There are no data to indicate future trends in population size. Extreme fluctuations in population are reported for other island-endemic flying-foxes elsewhere in the Indian Ocean in response to major mortality and habitat loss associated with irregular cyclones and other storm events (Cheke and Dahl 1981; Powell and Wehnelt 2003), but the frequency of such severe weather events on Christmas Island has been lower than that for other Indian Ocean islands. Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 14 of 33 increase or decrease). 29. What is the generation length and how it is calculated? Generation length is the average age of parents of the current cohort (i.e. newborn individuals in the population). Generation length therefore reflects the turnover rate of breeding individuals in a population. Generation length is greater than the age at first breeding and less than the age of the oldest breeding individual, except in taxa that breed only once. Where generation length varies under threat, the more natural, i.e. pre-disturbance, generation length should be used. 30. Identify important populations necessary for the species’ long-term survival and recovery? This may include: key breeding populations, those near the edge of the species’ range or those needed to maintain genetic diversity. 31. Describe any cross-breeding Although the total population of Christmas Island flying-fox may not vary much across any year, there may be substantial fluctuations in the number of individuals present in any colony. This “noise” renders estimation of population, and comparisons between periods, challenging. Age at first breeding for most females is likely to be 2-3 years, and longevity about 10-20 years, so a reasonable estimate of generation length is 10 years (with range 6-12 years). A very recent study (Tidemann and Nelson in press), based on banding returns, calculated that the generation length for grey-headed flying-fox Pteropus poliocephalus was 7.4 years, and the oldest recorded individual in that study was 18 years. As for q24 above, the Christmas Island flying-fox is considered to have only one population. However, within its Christmas Island range, the maternity colonies at Hosnie’s Spring and McMicken Point (and perhaps Greta Beach) typically comprise most of the entire population (and all of the breeding females), and have been known as maternity sites for at least several decades. Nil. with other species in the wild, indicating how frequently and where this occurs. 32. Departmental Use only: Populations In Reserve 33. Which populations are in reserve systems? Which of these are actively managed for this species? Give details. Most of the current population is likely to occur in Christmas Island National Park, which constitutes 63% of the Island. Both major maternity colonies occur within the Park. Management actions address some putative threats to this (and many other) species in the park area (and outside it). This includes episodic baiting for yellow crazy ants. A control program for cats and black rats started in 2010. Habitat 34. Describe the species’ habitat (e.g. aspect, topography, substrate, climate, forest type, associated species, sympatric species). If the species uses different habitats for different activities (e.g. breeding, feeding, roosting, dispersing, basking), then describe each habitat. 35. Does the species use refuge habitat, e.g. in times of fire, drought or flood? Describe this habitat. The species occurs across all habitats on Christmas Island. Most roosts are close to the coast, presumably for ease of take-off and access to updrafts (Tidemann 1985). Foraging occurs in rainforests, gardens, and post-mine revegetation (where this contains trees and shrubs). No known refuge habitat; however at roosts this species may be susceptible to disturbance by yellow crazy ants, and it may be critical that known roost sites are kept free Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 15 of 33 36. Is the extent or quality of the species’ habitat in decline? If the species uses different habitats, specify which of these are in decline. of super-colonies of this introduced ant. Much of Christmas Island has undergone broad-scale ecological change over the last few decades associated with outbreaks of yellow crazy ants. Such changes include marked reduction in the Island’s endemic red crab population, causing increases in the cover of understorey and ground litter, and some broad-scale floristic changes (O’Dowd et al. 2003). In areas with super-colonies of yellow crazy ants, the exceptionally high abundance of “farmed” scale insects may cause extensive degradation of foliage (in some cases, leading to death of trees), with some tree species (notably the Tahitian chestnut Inocarpus fagifer particularly affected (Green et al. 2001). This species was listed by Andrews (1900) as one of two native trees whose fruit was particularly favoured by flying-foxes. Currently, the extent to which such resulting floristic change may be detrimental (or beneficial) to flying-foxes is not known. In addition to habitat structural and floristic changes due to the influence of yellow crazy ants, a series of weed species has increased in extent and abundance. Such weeds include some species now much used as food resources by the flying-fox (notably Jamaican (Japanese) cherry Muntingia calabura) (and the flying-fox is probably an important disperser for this weed), but weed proliferation may also be detrimental to native plants used by the flying-fox. 37. Is the species part of, or does it rely on, a listed threatened ecological community? Is it associated with any other listed threatened species? More than 100 years of phosphate mining has led to the loss of about 25% of the Island’s rainforest habitat. However, parts of these mined areas are now being rehabilitated, and under current legislation no further clearance of primary rainforest to allow for mining access is permitted. The Christmas Island flying-fox is not associated with any currently-listed threatened ecological community. It occurs with a range of other threatened species including Christmas Island pipistrelle Pipistrellus murrayi (EPBCAlisted as critically endangered), Lister’s gecko Lepidodactylus listeri (EPBCA-listed as vulnerable), Christmas Island blind snake Typhlops exocoeti (EPBCAlisted as vulnerable), Abbott’s booby Papasula abbotti (EPBCA-listed as endangered), Christmas Island frigatebird Fregata andrewsi (EPBCA-listed as vulnerable), Christmas Island emerald dove Chalcophaps indica natalis (EPBCAlisted as endangered), Christmas Island goshawk Accipiter hiogaster natalis (EPBCA-listed as endangered), Christmas Island hawk-owl Ninox natalis (EPBCA-listed as vulnerable), Christmas Island thrush Turdus poliocephalus erythropleurus (EPBCA-listed as endangered), Christmas Island shrew Crocidura trichura (EPBCA-listed as endangered), and the plants Tectaria devexa (EPBCA-listed as endangered) and Carmona retusa (EPBCA-listed as Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 16 of 33 vulnerable). Although not strictly relevant to considerations under Australian legislation, it is notable that island-endemic flying-foxes have a global record of high levels of extinction and endangerment (Fleming and Recey 2009). Feeding 38. Summarize the species’ food items or sources and timing/seasonality. 39. Briefly describe the species’ feeding behaviours, including those that may make the species vulnerable to a threatening process. Christmas Island flying-foxes eat a wide range of fruit and nectar from native and introduced plant species. James et al. (2007) tallied this at 35 species, including 18 introduced species. Some important sources include Barringtonia racemosa (flowers), Celtis timorensis (stinkwood (fruit)), Dysoxylum gaudichaudianum (flowers), Ficus macrocarpa (fruit), Inocarpus fagifer (Tahitian chestnut (fruit)), Macaranga tanarius (flowers), Maclura cochinchinensis (fruit), Planchonella nitida (fruit, flowers), Syzygium nervosum (flowers, fruit), Terminalia catappa (Indian almond (flowers, fruit)), Tristiropsis acutangula (flowers, fruit) (James et al. 2007), Muntingia calabura (Jamaican cherry (fruit)), Cocos nucifera (coconut (flowers)), Mangifera spp. (mango (fruit)), Annona muricate (soursop (fruit)), and A. reticulata (custard apple (fruit)). James et al. (2007) also reported an observation of flying-foxes eating the leaves of an unknown native tree. Dietary patterns change seasonally, in response to the phenological patterning of individual plant species. Fruit availability is probably greatest in the wet season (December-March). The Christmas Island flying-fox forages at night and over part of the day. Day-time foraging is considered to be an evolutionary response to limited predation pressure (Tidemann 1985). Most foraging is in the tree canopy, but flying-foxes are also attracted to the fruits of the introduced Jamaican (Japanese) cherry, which often occur within 1-2 m of the ground. This species now occurs widely across the Island, and the low-level foraging by bats on the fruits of this plant render the flying-foxes particularly susceptible to predation by feral cats. In the past, Christmas Island flying-foxes consumption of fruits of horticultural plants (particularly pawpaw and mango) led to them being considered as pests by some members of the community, and accordingly killed. Previously, some hunters used fruit baits to attract flyingfoxes to convenient sites for capture (James et al. 2007). Maternity roost sites are likely to be “traditional” and longlasting, and sited to be close to areas of forest with productive fruit crops (to minimise energy expenditure by females carrying young). If extensive areas of forest near Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 17 of 33 such maternity roost sites are cleared or degraded by crazy ants, then such change may lead to unsustainable increase in the energy costs for female flying-foxes. Movement Patterns (fauna species only) 40. Describe any relevant daily and seasonal pattern of movement for the species, or other irregular patterns of movement, including relevant arrival/departure dates if migratory. 41. Give details of the species’ home ranges/territories. Tidemann (1985) reported that “many bats were seen to fly great distances after gaining height above their roosts. In some cases they flew out of sight at least 5 km away.” Home range size is not known, but given reported and probable movements, it is likely that all bats may occur across the entire Island over the course of their daily, seasonal or annual foraging. Survey Guidelines 42. Give details of the distinctiveness and detectability of the species. For survey, there are no issues with distinctiveness. It is the only bat on Christmas Island. For population estimation, detectability is an issue, in that an unknown proportion of the population is thought to occur in small roosts away from the main colonial roosting sites. Detectability may also be constrained by the dense foliage and tall vegetation in its main habitat, rainforest. 43. Describe methods for detecting species including when to conduct surveys (e.g. season, time of day, weather conditions); length, intensity and pattern of search effort; and limitations and expert acceptance; recommended methods; survey-effort guide. Nonetheless, this is typically a noisy species, and, if present, it is likely to be detected during nocturnal spotlight searching. See q.20 and q22. Ground-counts at known colony sites provide the most reliable measures of total population size, and should be conducted near synchronously across all colonies. Dense foliage and tall trees may reduce the precision of such counts. “Double-counting” (i.e. cross-checking between two observers) will increase precision. The number of “pups” should also be included in counts. These counts (estimates of total population size) should be complemented by more wide-ranging estimates of relative abundance (to account for the unknown proportion of the total population that may be roosting outside the known colony sites). The nocturnal BMP sampling regime provides a robust basis for monitoring abundance. Section 2 - Threats and Threat Abatement Threats 44. Identify past, current and future threats, to the species indicating whether they are actual or potential. For each threat, describe: Of the main threatening processes likely to have contributed to the recent decline of this species, none has yet been definitively proven. James et al. (2007) provides a comprehensive account of potential threats and a “threat assessment matrix” that includes consideration of plausibility. Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 18 of 33 Phosphate mining has caused loss of about 25% of forest cover on Christmas Island incrementally since the 1890s. The areas left after mining are appreciably less suitable for this species than natural vegetation, so this factor can be considered to be an actual threat, but it is unlikely to have been the trigger or primary cause of the recent rapid decline, which has occurred across the species’ range (rather than only in mined areas). Predation may be a major threat to this species, particularly by feral cats. Tidemann et al. (1994) reported that Christmas Island flying-foxes were present in 10% of a large sample of cat guts (although lower proportions have been recorded in subsequent studies of cat diet on the Island: van der Lee 1997; Corbett et al. 2003; Algar et al. 2011). Assuming that prey items may remain in cat guts for 3 days, and that the population of cats on Christmas Island is at least 1000 individuals (probably conservative given about 150 domestic cats, and the high abundance (no./km of transect) of feral cats reported: Algar et al. 2011), the Tidemann et al. (1994) incidence of flying-foxes translates as an annual mortality of at least 1200 flying-foxes. This is clearly unsustainable for a flying-fox population now estimated as about 1500 individuals (James et al. 2007). This suggest that the predation rate detected by Tidemann et al. (1994) may have been unrepresentative, that the number of feral cats is substantially fewer than 1000 individuals, and/or that the recently-observed decline in flying-foxes was largely driven by a period of exceptional predation pressure by cats, and/or that the recently recorded decreased incidence of flying-foxes in cat prey items is because of real reduction in the abundance of flying-foxes. James et al. (2007) considered a range of other native (including frigate-birds Fregata spp., nankeen kestrel Falco cenchroides and Christmas Island goshawk Accipiter hiogaster natalis) and introduced species (notably the wolf snake Lycodon aulicus capucinus) were potential predators, but concluded that these were unlikely to be major threats to the flying-fox, although noting that the timing of the observed decline of the flying-fox corresponded (loosely) with the arrival and increase of the kestrel and wolf snake (e.g. Smith 1988). The Christmas Island flying-fox may also have suffered a reduction in habitat suitability and/or food availability, due to the broad-scale environmental change associated with the development of super-colonies of yellow crazy ants. In addition, roosting flying-foxes may be directly disturbed by (the partly arboreal) yellow crazy ants. As with most other island-endemic flying-foxes, the Christmas Island flying-fox has suffered considerable Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 19 of 33 human predation since the Island’s settlement around 1890. Tidemann (1985) sought to quantify the hunting pressure during his 1984 study, but obtained little information. He concluded that “catches of 200 at a time may not be uncommon. But it is unknown how frequently hunting is indulged in nor by how many. It seems likely that it is only an occasional event for most people, although bats are sometimes procured for sale at the local market.” It is plausible that “not uncommon” episodes of “catches of 200” may well have had a substantial impact on a species with a total population size of about 6000 individuals and a low reproductive output (e.g. Martin and McIlwee 2002), and hunting pressure has been a major factor in the decline of island flying-foxes in the Pacific and Indian Oceans (e.g. Cheke and Dahl 1981). Hunting of Christmas Island flying-fox is now illegal, but the limited available evidence suggests that some still occurs (Dennis 2000), although there is no evidence of hunting occurring today. Corbett et al. (2003) considered that the major population reduction observed between Tidemann’s (1984) study and the next assessment of their status (in 2002) was due to catastrophic loss associated with a major storm on 26 March 1988. Their speculation follows: “When the cyclonic winds struck at about 0200h, the strong wind swept many bats to sea, to the east of the island. All would have had to maintain flight in strong wind for about 4h until dawn before they could see properly. Those still in sight of the island may have made it back, those further away would have had great difficulty orientating to the island especially given its relatively small size. It is highly likely that most of the stranded individuals would have become exhausted and dropped into the sea and drowned. It is also possible that many flying foxes died from starvation in the days following the cyclone because food sources had been stripped from trees”. Christmas Island was also affected by Cyclone Rosie in 2008 (Hennicke and Flachsbarth 2009). Such intense cyclone events are known to have led to catastrophic population losses of other island flying-fox species, including in the Pacific and Indian oceans (e.g. Pierson et al. 1996). Pollution: Tidemann (1985) reported that one camp (near Daniel Roux cave) was located beneath the phosphate drier, and that all vegetation in the camp area was covered in phosphate dust for much of the year. Phosphate dust may contain cadmium (but at unrecorded concentrations), which can have lethal consequences for animal species, affecting particularly the liver (Burger 2008). It is possible that roosting flying-foxes may have ingested cadmium through licking of “dust”-covered fur or consuming dustcovered pollen and/or fruit. This camp is no longer used (James et al. 2007). [Similarly, a major breeding colony of the Christmas Island frigatebird in the same location was Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 20 of 33 also abandoned, most likely because of habitat deterioration due to dust (Stokes 1988; James 2003)]. The drier has been modified over the last decade to reduce the amount of fugitive dust (Hill and Dunn 2004). Hall et al. (2011) found cadmium levels of 0.69 mg/kg in their only sample of Christmas Island flying-fox liver, and stated that “ongoing toxicological testing is warranted to monitor environmental exposure of this species to potential toxins”. It is difficult to contextualise this single value, but it is notably higher than the range of values (0.06-0.48 mg/kg for liver) reported for a wide range of wild and laboratory mammals (including rodents, deer and rabbits) sampled by Kramarova et al. (2005), who noted that “Ingestion of even trace quantities of cadmium can affect not only the physiology and health of individual organisms, but also the demographics and the distribution of species”. However the reported value is well under toxic threshold (e.g. 100 ppm in kidney: Larison et al. 2000). James et al. (2007) listed another possible pollution agent, poisoning by the insecticide fipronil, used extensively by managers for the control of yellow crazy ants. However his assessment of this as a potential cause of decline was that it was of “low plausibility”, especially given the decline of the flying fox appears to have preceded the use of Fipronil in the aerial baiting program for yellow crazy ants of 2002. Island populations may be particularly prone to the impacts of newly-arrived disease, and a range of diseases are of increasing recent profile in Australian mainland flying-foxes. Limited sampling of Christmas Island flyingfoxes has been conducted (Tidemann 1985; Hall et al. 2011). Hall et al. (2011) recorded coccidia in 4 of 16 faecal samples, and a single incidence of “Ascarid-like ova”. “This result is very interesting, as internal parasites from this species have not been reported before despite Tidemann performing thorough examinations of the gut of over 100 individuals [in 1984].” “Infection with this parasite rarely causes clinical disease in adult Pteropus bats, however upper airway obstruction, ill thrift demeanour and morbidity have been recorded in greyheaded flying-fox and variable flying-fox pups.” Hall et al. (2011) also reported that the levels of Alkaline Phosphatase, Amylase and Lipase were considerably higher, and Urea (Blood Urea Nitrogen) considerably lower, in their samples (N=28) of Christmas Island flying-fox compared to six other flying-fox species for which this information was available. These parameters are consistent with some reduced functionality of liver or pancreas. They also reported no sign of Hendra virus. Some previously preferred food sources may have been reduced in recent years. James et al. (2007) note that management has reduced the abundance of the introduced umbrella tree Schefflera actinophylla, and post-mine Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 21 of 33 a. b. how and where it impacts on this species; what its effect has been so far (indicate whether it is known or suspected; present supporting information/research; does it only affect certain populations); rehabilitation no longer uses the exotic Jamaican cherry, and that its abundance along roadsides had been reduced. The diet of the Christmas Island flying-fox now includes a considerable proportion of fruits and nectar from introduced species. It is possible that such food sources provide less nutrition than the native species that they have replaced (as has been reported for Pacific Island flying-foxes: Nelson et al. 2000), but there is no primary evidence for this for the Christmas Island flying-fox. see above Given the panmictic nature of the population on Christmas Island, and that all individual flying-foxes would move over the Island over the course of a year, all threats are likely to affect all individuals in the population. No threats have been definitively shown to have caused the population reduction, but a high rate of predation by cats is indicated by the study of Tidemann et al. 1994), and relatively high rates (given the small size of the Island’s flying-fox population) of hunting by humans are assumed historically (up to the 1980s). Clearance of native rainforest for mining reduced the foraging habitat available to this species by about 25%, with a spike in the extent of clearing between the 1950s and 1980s (Tidemann 1985). c. d. what is its expected effect in the future (is there supporting research/information; is the threat only suspected; does it only affect certain populations); what is the relative importance or magnitude of the threat to the species. 45. If not included above, identify catastrophic threats, i.e. threats with a low predictability that are likely to severely affect the species. Identify the threat, explain its likely impact and indicate the likelihood of it occurring (e.g. a drought/cyclone in the area every 100 years). 46. Identify and explain any additional biological characteristics particular to the species that are threatening to its survival (e.g. low genetic diversity)? 47. Identify and explain any quantitative measures or models that address the probability The loss of a substantial proportion of the population directly because of the storm event of March 1988 (and indirectly to subsequent habitat degradation and reduction in food availability) concords loosely with the timing of the decline of this species, but this explanation is speculative. There is no information available on future changes in threats, except that cat control and eradication is now being planned (Algar et al. 2011). Uncertain. The incidence of cyclones on Christmas Island has been very low, but some severe tropical storms (including the residue of nearby tropical cyclones) have been reported, including at least two in the last 30 years (e.g. Hennicke and Flachsbarth 2009). Such storms may lead to direct mortality for flying-foxes and substantial lag effects through reduction in forest structure and subsequent decrease in food resources. As a resident of a relatively small island, the Christmas Island flying-fox has probably long maintained a relatively limited amount of genetic variability. Nil. Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 22 of 33 of the species’ extinction in the wild over a particular timeframe. 48. Is there other information that relates to the survival of this species that you would like to address? The decline of the Christmas Island flying-fox has been largely concordant with that of the Christmas Island pipistrelle, and with a range of native Christmas Island reptile species. It is plausible that the same factors are involved, to some degree. Island-endemic flying-foxes have had an unusually high rate of decline and extinction (Fleming and Racey 2009): Helgen et al. (2009) lists five extinctions of island-endemic flying-fox species. Threat Abatement and Recovery 49. Give an overview of how broad-scale threats are being abated/could be abated and other recovery actions underway/ proposed. Identify who is undertaking these activities and how successful the activities have been to date. 50. For species nominated as 1. Christmas Island National Park. The most recent plan of management for this park was established in 2002, and a new plan of management is likely to be released in 2012. [Parks Australia] 2. A multi-species regional recovery plan (including this species) will be established in 2012. [Parks Australia] 3. An “expert working group” was established by Minister Garrett in 2009 to recommend on conservation management actions and priorities for Christmas Island, (Beeton et al. 2010). 4. The Australian government has committed long-term funding for the ongoing control of yellow crazy ants, consistent with the Threat Abatement Plan. 5. A plan for the control of cats and rats on Christmas Island (Algar and Johnston 2010) is now being implemented. 6. There is an ongoing island-wide biodiversity monitoring program, including this species. [Parks Australia]. n/a extinct in the wild, provide details of the locations in which the species occurs in captivity and the level of human intervention required to sustain the species. Mitigation Approach 51. Describe any mitigation measures or approaches that have been developed specifically for the species at identified locations. Identify who is undertaking these activities and how successful the activities have been to date. There has been considerable investment in the control of yellow crazy ants over the period since the late 1990s, and this program continues. [Parks Australia] A program to control (or eradicate) feral cats began in 2010, and has to date resulted in the de-sexing of all pet cats, and killing of more than 200 “wild” cats. [Parks Australia, in association with the Shire of Christmas Island and WA Department of Environment and Conservation.] 52. Departmental use only: Major Studies 53. Identify major studies on the Significant studies of the species’ ecology and status: species that might relate to its Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 23 of 33 taxonomy or management. Andrews, C.W. (ed.) (1900). A monograph of Christmas Island (Indian Ocean) – physical features and geology, with descriptions of the fauna and flora by numerous contributors. British Museum Trustees, London. pp. 1-337. James, D.J., Dale, G.J., Retallick, K., and Orchard, K. (2007). Christmas Island Biodiversity Monitoring Programme: Christmas Island Flying-Fox Pteropus natalis. An assessment of conservation status and threats. Report to Department of Finance and Deregulation, and Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts. Orchard, K. (2006). Christmas Island Flying-fox, Pteropus melanotus natalis: Initial Survey on Population Status and Threat Assessment. Unpublished report to Parks Australia North, Christmas Island. Tidemann, C.R. (1985). A study of the status, habitat requirements and management of the two species of bats on Christmas Island (Indian Ocean). Report to Australian National Parks and Wildlife Service, Canberra. Management Documentation 54. Identify key management documentation available for the species, e.g. recovery plans, conservation plans, threat abatement plans. Christmas Island National Park Plan of Management (2002). Christmas Island “regional recovery plan” (in prep). Algar, D., and Johnston, M. (2010). Proposed management plan for cats and black rats on Christmas Island. (Western Australia Department of Environment and Conservation, Perth.) Beeton, B., Burbidge, A., Grigg, G., Harrison, P., How, R., Humphreys, B., McKenzie, N., and Woinarski, J. (2010). Final report of the Christmas Island Expert Working Group to the Minister for Environment Protection, Heritage and the Arts. 55. Departmental use only: Section 3 — Indigenous Cultural Significance 56. Is the species known to have Indigenous cultural significance to groups within the Australian jurisdiction and, if so, to which Indigenous groups? Are you able to provide information on the nature of this significance? No particular Indigenous or cultural significance – Christmas Island was uninhabited until the 1890s. Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 24 of 33 Section 4 – References and Reviewers Notes: The opinion of appropriate scientific experts may be cited (with their approval) in support of a nomination. If this is done the names of the experts, their qualifications and full contact details must also be provided in the reference list below. Please provide copies of key documentation/references used in the nomination 57. Reference list Algar, D., and Johnston, M. (2010). Proposed management plan for cats and black rats on Christmas Island. (Western Australia Department of Environment and Conservation, Perth.) Algar, D., Hilmer, S., Nickels, D., and Nickels, A. (2011). Successful domestic cat neutering: first step towards eradicating cats on Christmas Island for wildlife protection. Ecological Management and Restoration 12, 93-101. Andrews, C.W. (ed.) (1900). A monograph of Christmas Island (Indian Ocean) – physical features and geology, with descriptions of the fauna and flora by numerous contributors. British Museum Trustees, London. pp. 1-337. Beeton, B., Burbidge, A., Grigg, G., Harrison, P., How, R., Humphreys, B., McKenzie, N., and Woinarski, J. (2010). Final report of the Christmas Island Expert Working Group to the Minister for Environment Protection, Heritage and the Arts. Burger J. (2008) Assessment and management of risk to wildlife from cadmium. Science of the Total Environment 389, 37 - 45. Cheke, A.S., and Dahl, J.S. (1981). The status of bats on the western Indian Ocean islands with special reference to Pteropus. Mammalia 45, 205-238. Corbett, L., Crome, F., and Richards, G. (2003). Fauna survey of Mine lease applications and National Park reference areas, Christmas Island, August 2002. in Phosphate Resources Ltd 2005. Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed Christmas Island Phosphate Mines. Technical Appendices Vol. 1. Phosphate Resources Ltd. Cox, P.A., and Elmqvist. (2000). Pollinator extinction in the Pacific islands. Conservation Biology 14, 1237-1239. Cox, P.A., Elmqvist, T., Pierson, E.D., and Rainey, W.E. (1991). Flying foxes as strong indicators in South Pacific island ecosystems: a conservation hypothesis. Conservation Biology 5, 448-454. Dennis, S. (2000). Christmas Island: an anthropological study. (Cambria Press, New York.) Fleming, T.H., and Racey, P.A. (eds) (2009). Island bats: evolution, ecology, and conservation. (University of Chicago Press, Chicago.) Gibson-Hill, C. A. (1947). A note on the mammals of Christmas Island. Bulletin of the Raffles Museum 18, 166-167. Green, P.T., O’Dowd, D.J., and Lake, P.S. (2001). From resistance to meltdown: secondary invasion of an island rain forest. In Tropical Ecosystems: Structure, Diversity and Human Welfare. (eds K.N. Ganeshaiah, R. Uma Shankar, and K.S. Bawa.) pp. 451-455. Proceedings of the International Conference on Tropical Ecosystems, Bangalore. Hale, J., and Butcher, R. (2010). Hosnies Spring Ramsar Site: ecological character description. (Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, Canberra.) Hall, J., Rose, K., Spratt, D., Harlow, P., Donahoe, S., Andrew, P., Field, H., DeJong, C., Smith, C., Hyatt, A., and Watson, J. (2011). Assessment of reptile and mammal disease prevalence on Christmas Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 25 of 33 Island. Report to Parks Australia. (Australian Registry of Wildlife Health, Taronga Conservation Society Australia, Sydney.) Helgen, K.M., Helgen, L.E., and Wilson, D.E. (2009). Pacific flying foxes (Mammalia: Chiroptera): two new species of Pteropus from Samoa, probably extinct. American Museum Novitates Number 3646, 137. Hennicke, J.C., and Flachsbarth, K. (2009). Effects of Cyclone Rosie on breeding red-tailed tropicbirds Phaethon rubricauda on Christmas Island, Indian Ocean. Marine Ornithology 37, 175-178. Hill, R.A., and Dunn, A. (2004). National recovery plan for the Christmas Island frigatebird Fregata andrewsi. (Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra.) James, D.J. (2003). A Survey of Christmas Island Frigatebird Nests in 2003. Draft report to Parks Australia North (Christmas Island), Christmas Island, Indian Ocean, and Department of Environment and Heritage, Canberra. James, D.J., Dale, G.J., Retallick, K., and Orchard, K. (2007). Christmas Island Biodiversity Monitoring Programme: Christmas Island Flying-Fox Pteropus natalis. An assessment of conservation status and threats. Report to Department of Finance and Deregulation, and Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts. Kramarova, M., Massanyi, P., Jancova, A., Toman, R., Slamecka, J., Tataruch, F., Kovacik, J., Gasparik, J., Nad, P., Skalicka, M., Korenekova, B., Jurcik, R., Cubon, J., and Hascik, P. (2005). Concentration of cadmium in the liver and kidneys of some wild and farm animals. Bulletin of the Veterinary Institute Pulawy 49, 465-469. Larison J. R., Likens G. E., Fitzpatrick J. W., and Crock J. G. (2000). Cadmium toxicity among wildlife in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. Nature 406, 181-183. Martin, L., and McIlwee (2002). The reproductive biology and intrinsic capacity for increase of the grey-headed flying-fox Pteropus poliocephalus (Megachiroptera), and the implications of culling. In Managing the grey-headed flying-fox as a threatened species in New South Wales. (eds P. Eby and D. Lunney.) pp. 91-108. (Royal Zoological Society of New South Wales, Sydney.) Mickleburgh, S.P., Hutson, A.M., and Racey, P.A. (1992). Old World fruit bats: an action plan for their conservation. (IUCN, Gland.) Nelson, S.L., Miller, M.A., Heske, E.J., and Fahey, G.C. (2000). Nutritional consequences of a change in diet from native to agricultural fruits for the Samoan fruit bat. Ecography 23, 393-401. O’Dowd, D.J., Green, P.T., and Lake, P.S. (2003). Invasional ‘meltdown’ on an oceanic island. Ecology Letters 6, 812-817. Orchard, K. (2006). Christmas Island Flying-fox, Pteropus melanotus natalis: Initial Survey on Population Status and Threat Assessment. Unpublished report to Parks Australia North, Christmas Island. Palmer, C., and Woinarski, J.C.Z. (1999). Seasonal roosts and foraging movements of the black flying fox Pteropus alecto in the Northern Territory: resource tracking in a landscape mosaic. Wildlife Research 26, 823-838. Pierson, E.D., Elmqvist, T., Rainey, W.E., and Cox, P.A. (1996). Effects of tropical cyclonic storms on flying fox populations on the South pacific Islands of Samoa. Conservation Biology 10, 438-451. Powell, V.J., and Wehnelt, S.C. (2003). A new estimate of the population size of the critically endangered Rodrigues fruit bat Pteropus rodricensis. Oryx 37, 353-35. Schulz, M. (2004). National Recovery Plan for the Christmas Island Shrew Crocidura attenuata trichura. (Department of the Environment and Heritage, Canberra.) Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 26 of 33 Smith, L.A. (1988). Lycodon aulicus capucinus a colubrid snake introduced to Christmas Island, Indian Ocean. Records of the Western Australian Museum 14, 251-252. Stokes, T. (1988). A Review of the Birds of Christmas Island. Australian National Parks & Wildlife Service Occ. Pap. No. 16. (ANPWS, Canberra.) Tidemann, C.R. (1985). A study of the status, habitat requirements and management of the two species of bats on Christmas Island (Indian Ocean). Report to Australian National Parks and Wildlife Service, Canberra. Tidemann, C.R. (1987). Notes on the flying-fox, Pteropus melanotus (Chiroptera: Pteropodidae), on Christmas Island, Indian Ocean. Australian Mammalogy 10, 89-91. Tidemann, C.R., and Nelson, J.E. (in press). Life expectancy, causes of death and movements of the grey-headed flying-fox (Pteropus poliocephalus) inferred from banding. Acta Chiropterologica 13, xx. Tidemann, C.R., and Richards, G.C. (2008). Christmas Island flying-fox Pteropus melanotus. In The mammals of Australia. Third edition. (eds S. Van Dyck and R. Strahan.) pp. 442-443. (Reed New Holland, Sydney.) Tidemann, C.R., Yorkston, H.D., and Russack, A.J. (1994). The diet of feral cats, Felis catus, on Christmas Island, Indian Ocean. Wildlife Research 21, 279-285. van der Lee, G. (1997). The status of cats Felis catus and prospects for their control on Christmas Island. Report to Australian Nature Conservation Agency. (Department of Ecosystem Management, University of New England, Armadale.) Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 27 of 33 Attachment 1a. Ground counts at known roost sites, pre-2005. (source: James et al. 2007) year site ETHEL GRETA date count 1984 1985 x/2/1985 date count x/3/1984 300 x/9/1984 >1000 HOSNIES SPRING date count McMICKEN/DOLLY DANIEL ROUX CAVE MIDDLE POINT date date date x/3/1984 count count count 0 x/3/1984 0 1/6/1984 200 x/9/1984 0 21/9/1984 150 5/9/1984 300 x/11/1984 100 x/3/21985 0 6/3/1985 50 0 31/5/1985 8 17/5/1985 30 5/7/1985 40 24/7/1985 8 2/8/1985 200 4/10/1985 12 30/8/1985 45 18/12/1985 0 30/9/1985 300 1/11/1985 350 12/11/1985 0 5/12/1985 0 9/1/1986 0 9/5/1986 10 7/2/1986 0 6/3/1986 0 1986 x/4/1986 0 12/6/1986 25 15/7/1986 200 8/9/1986 130 Attachment 1b. Ground counts at known roost sites, 2006-2011. (source Parks Australia data base) year site ETHEL date 2006 count GRETA date 16/06/2006 19/06/2006 20/06/2006 2/07/2006 18/07/2006 24/07/2006 26/07/2006 1/08/2006 9/08/2006 count 276 310 289 280 207 32 35 14 7 HOSNIES SPRING date count 5/01/2006 2 16/01/2006 122 23/01/2006 22 21/01/2006 267 6/03/2006 238 27/03/2006 0 26/04/2005 62 9/05/2006 287 6/06/2006 5 McMICKEN/DOLLY date count 4/01/2006 12 24/01/2006 13 7/02/2006 83 22/02/2006 127 9/03/2006 224 29/03/2006 138 20/06/2006 37 2/08/2006 68 11/08/2006 23 Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 28 of 33 11/08/2006 17/08/2006 21/08/2006 27/09/2006 31/10/2006 19/12/2006 2007 23/05/2007 108 31/01/2007 27/06/2007 0 28/02/2007 25/07/2007 29 24/04/2007 28/09/2007 6 23/05/2007 26/09/2007 0 27/06/2007 29/10/2007 0 25/07/2007 27/11/2007 0 29/08/2007 18/12/2007 0 26/09/2007 29/10/2007 27/11/2007 18/12/2007 2008 30/01/2008 34 30/01/2008 27/02/2008 3 27/02/2008 12 5 35 512 159 49 20/06/2006 18/07/2006 20/07/2006 23/07/2006 26/07/2006 1/08/2006 9/08/2006 11/08/2006 17/08/2006 21/08/2006 27/09/2006 31/10/2006 19/12/2006 10 8 5 0 0 69 3 4 10 0 0 31/01/2007 28/02/2007 24/04/2007 23/05/2007 27/06/2007 25/07/2007 29/08/2007 26/09/2007 29/10/2007 27/11/2007 18/12/2007 0 1 0 9 114 54 0 18 42 0 30/01/2008 27/02/2008 2/04/2008 30/04/2008 28/05/2008 74 0 116 14 9 16/10/2011 15/12/2011 402 39 2/04/2008 0 2/04/2008 30/04/2008 100 30/04/2008 28/05/2008 58 28/05/2008 3/07/2008 0 3/07/2008 30/07/2008 18 30/07/2008 27/08/2008 26 27/08/2008 30/09/2008 0 30/09/2008 26/11/2008 0 26/11/2008 2009 27/02/2009 0 8/04/2009 8/04/2009 0 30/04/2009 4 1 16/7/2009 100 1/02/2010 0 1/02/2010 0 25/05/2010 1 2011 15/12/2011 0 15/12/2011 0 2010 9 17/08/2006 11 27/09/2006 0 31/10/2006 10 15 31 23 32 27 82 91 306 314 62 189 194 86 0 47 212 486 77 291 207 513 140 114 15/12/2011 Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 29 of 33 24 Attachment 2a. Exit counts at known roost sites, pre 2005. (source: James et al. 2007) year HOSNIES SPRING (MARGARET KNOLL) date 1984 count x/3/1984 150-200 9/9/1984 1543 17/9/1984 2121 Attachment 2b. Exit counts at known roost sites, 2005-2011. (source: Parks Australia data base) year site FIELD 25 date GRETA (STRONACH KNOLL) date count count HOSNIES SPRING (MARGARET KNOLL) McMICKEN/DOLLY date date count count 2005 22/12/2005 41 14/12/2005 95 21/9/2005 32 27/12/2005 7 21/12/2005 0 5/12/2005 148 12/12/2005 139 19/12/2005 6 20/12/2005 7 21/12/2005 1 26/12/2005 36 2/1/2006 21 4/1/2006 14 2006 3/1/2006 17 31/10/2006 18 20/6/2006 51 5/1/2006 6 24/1/2006 3 26/7/2006 17 10/1/2006 29 22/2/2006 217 2/8/2006 12 16/1/2006 58 9/3/2006 152 11/8/2006 0 21/1/2006 141 29/3/2006 163 25/8/2006 3 23/1/2006 9 20/6/2006 180 31/10/2006 131 6/2/2006 10 26/7/2006 221 27/11/2006 150 22/2/2006 141 2/8/2006 168 19/12/2006 255 1/3/2006 90 11/8/2006 92 6/3/2006 27 17/8/2006 106 30/5/2006 84 27/9/2006 670 12/6/2006 86 31/10/2006 693 20/6/2006 100 27/11/2006 386 18/7/2006 80 19/12/2006 247 21/7/2006 105 23/7/2006 54 Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 30 of 33 2007 2008 2009 26/7/2006 160 1/8/2006 167 5/8/2006 178 9/8/2006 114 11/8/2006 185 17/8/2006 212 21/8/2006 193 27/9/2006 199 31/10/2006 137 27/11/2006 184 19/12/2006 192 31/1/2007 93 31/1/2007 72 31/1/2007 60 28/2/2007 100 28/2/2007 2 28/2/2007 72 24/4/2007 4 24/4/2007 4 24/4/2007 137 27/6/2007 11 25/5/2007 269 25/5/2007 317 25/7/2007 2 27/6/2007 907 27/6/2007 307 29/8/2007 0 25/7/2007 70 25/7/2007 595 26/9/2007 1 29/8/2007 345 29/8/2007 890 29/10/2007 63 26/9/2007 335 26/9/2007 1895 27/11/2007 95 29/10/2007 267 29/10/2007 578 19/12/2007 184 27/11/2007 147 27/11/2007 206 19/12/2007 95 19/12/2007 450 30/1/2008 27 27/2/2008 47 27/2/2008 420 27/2/2008 20 2/4/2008 8 2/4/2008 137 2/4/2008 7 30/4/2008 77 28/5/2008 908 30/4/2008 0 28/5/2008 19 3/7/2008 331 28/5/2008 0 3/7/2008 39 30/7/2008 428 3/7/2008 0 30/7/2008 39 27/8/2008 812 30/7/2008 3 27/8/2008 106 30/9/2008 368 27/8/2008 4 30/9/2008 336 26/11/2008 267 30/9/2008 9 26/11/2008 56 25/2/2009 29 25/2/2009 3 30/4/2009 0 30/4/2009 153 8/7/2009 4 8/7/2009 6 24/11/2009 177 8/9/2010 2 8/4/2009 76 30/4/2009 287 8/7/2009 405 24/11/2009 614 1/2/2010 307 8/9/2010 112 2010 2011 1/2/2010 16 8/9/2010 20 15/12/2011 6 Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 31 of 33 Attachment 3. Records of flying-fox in the biennial Island Wide Survey. (source: Parks Australia data base). The extent to which flying-foxes have been included in the recording protocols for these surveys has varied considerably across surveys. Until the 2009 survey, flying-foxes may have been reported as incidental records, if observers happened to note them (but they were not included in the list of species that had to be surveyed at every sampled waypoint). Thereafter, observers were obliged to record their presence or absence at every one of the ca 1000 waypoints. More thoroughly from 2007 occurrence was also noted away from fixed waypoints (i.e. when observers were in transit between waypoint sampling). 2001 - recorded at 2 waypoints (no transit info) 2003 - recorded at 25 waypoints (no transit info) 2005 - recorded at 1 waypoint and 7 times in transit 2007 - recorded at 4 waypoints, 14 times in transit 2009 - recorded at 53 waypoints, 10 times in transit 2011 - recorded at 89 waypoints, 48 times in transit Note that the tallies for 2003 and 2005 are inconsistent with those reported in James et al. (2007), who noted that "The 2003 IWS recorded 20 P. natalis and the 2005 IWS recorded 26 from c. 1000 survey points. Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 32 of 33 Figure 1. Location of known colony sites of Christmas Island flying-fox (large blue circles), broad habitat types, national park boundary, cleared areas. (from James et al. 2007). Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis) Nomination — Page 33 of 33