THIRD PARTY EMPLOYMENT BRANDING: EMPLOYEE TURNOVER RATES FOLLOWING ‘BEST PLACES TO WORK’ CERTIFICATIONS BRIAN R. DINEEN Purdue University Krannert School of Management West Lafayette, IN 47906 Tel: (765) 496-2022 E-mail: dineenb@purdue.edu DAVID G. ALLEN University of Memphis Fogelman College of Business and Economics Memphis, TN 38152 Tel : (901) 678-4729 E-mail : dallen@memphis.edu This research has been funded by a grant from the SHRM Foundation. We thank Jason Shaw for his work on the early stages of this project, Abbie Shipp for her assistance with the data analysis process, and the faculties of the Krannert School of Management OBHR area at Purdue University and the London Business School OB area for their helpful comments and suggestions. Keywords: Best Places to Work, turnover, employment brand image, employment branding 1 ABSTRACT “Best Places to Work” (BPTW) and similar competitions have proliferated and represent a form of third party employment branding. Yet, little is known about how third party branding efforts of this type might relate to turnover outcomes. Using archival information and survey data from 624 companies participating in fifteen state- and industry-based BPTW competitions across a four-year period, we develop and examine competing theoretical predictions about the relationship between BPTW rankings and turnover rates. We then develop and examine (1) moderation predictions regarding organization size and workforce age (susceptibility effects) as well as workforce satisfaction (sham effect), and further examine (2) celebrity and crystallization effects that model the trajectory of this relationship with repeated rankings over time. This investigation advances theory related to turnover and employment branding, and is relevant to company decisions about entering or remaining in BPTW competitions from year to year. 2 THIRD PARTY EMPLOYMENT BRANDING: EMPLOYEE TURNOVER RATES FOLLOWING ‘BEST PLACES TO WORK’ CERTIFICATIONS The evolution of employer-employee relations from a transactional to relational model has received widespread attention, as has the need for companies to approach Human Resources (HR) strategically (e.g., Becker & Huselid, 2006; Hammonds, 2005; Rousseau, 1995; SHRM, 2010). This evolution has led employers to strive to make workplaces more engaging, developmental, and employee-centered. As part of this trend, the idea of branding the organization as a great place to work is yielding increased practical and scholarly attention as a key consideration for both attracting and retaining talent (e.g., Collins & Kanar, in press; Gardner, Erhardt, & Martin-Rios, 2011). Research and theory demonstrate that individuals develop and hold brand images in memory that influence preferences for products and services beyond the tangible attributes of those products or services (Aaker, 1996; Keller, 1993). More recently, scholars have turned this lens to the employment brand, and the possibility that employment brand image could influence decisions to apply for, accept, and remain with an organization’s job opportunities (see Collins & Kanar, in press, for a review). Others have even suggested that certain branding events, coupled with emotional reactions of employees, can lead to rapid “celebrity” status for firms, yielding above-normal outcomes for those firms (Rindova, Pollock, & Hayward, 2006). Still others suggest that employment branding and reputationbuilding require consistency and thus take time to come to fruition in the form of discernible outcomes (e.g., Rindova, Williamson, Petkova, & Sever, 2005). Either way, the duration and generalizability of branding effects for important organizational outcomes such as turnover is uncertain. 3 Whereas employer image consists of individuals’ perceptions of what is distinctive, central, and enduring about the organization as a place to work (Cable & Turban, 2001; Collins & Stevens, 2002; Highhouse, Brooks, & Gregarus, 2009), and an employment brand is defined as “names, terms, signs, symbols, or designs or a combination of them intended to identify the employment offering of one employer and to differentiate it from the offerings of competing employers” (Gardner et al., 2011), employment branding comprises efforts organizations make to create or alter these image perceptions to convey a favorable value proposition to potential or current employees (e.g., Edwards, 2010; Lievens, 2007; Van Hoye, Bas, Cromheecke, & Lievens, 2012). The bulk of the empirical research to date has focused on the role of organizational brand image in attracting talent to the firm (e.g., Chapman, Uggerslev, Carroll, Piasentin, & Jones, 2005 summarized the effects of 27 studies linking organization image to applicant attraction). We shift this focus to the impact of the organization’s employer image and branding efforts on employee turnover, given the criticality of turnover to a host of organizational performance metrics (Shaw, 2010). Specifically, we address three primary questions of theoretical and practical importance. First we investigate whether employment branding might influence the retention of current employees, and more specifically, whether third party employment branding, defined as changes in employer image resulting from communications, claims, or status-based classifications generated by extra-organizational entities, impacts turnover rates. For example, a cornerstone of the recent work on celebrity firms is that celebrity stature is largely conferred on firms by outside entities such as the media (Rindova et al., 2006). Second, we examine the types of firms for which these effects might be more prevalent. Third, we investigate instigation points at which these effects might commence, and the sustainability of effects once set in motion (Rindova et 4 al., 2006). For example, we ask whether third party employment branding results in immediate positive (or negative) outcomes, or whether the employment brand must be better-established before it can actually translate to tangible effects such as reduced turnover. In addition to extending research on employment branding to consider it effects on reactions of current employees, our approach addresses an important gap in turnover theory. Holtom, Mitchell, Lee, and Eberly’s (2008) review identifies organization prestige as a new construct warranting attention, but does not elaborate on how or why prestige matters. Hausknecht and Trevor’s recent (2011) model of collective turnover identifies a variety of HR practices, collective employee attitudes, and collective business and environmental characteristics that may influence turnover rates, but does not address employer image, reputation, or celebrity. Gardner et al. (2011) note that employment brands help workers make better, less effortful decisions about continuing employment relationships, and argue that employment brands are more critical to employee decision making than even product brands are to consumers. It is therefore apparent that a melding of the turnover literature with the rising interest in firm reputation, employment branding, and “celebrity” firms is warranted. Should we expect employment branding in general, and third party employment branding in particular, to influence current employees? Collins and Kanar (in press) suggest that current employees likely form surface (overall evaluations) and complex (focused on specific attributes) brand associations about their organization as an employer, and that these associations may influence employment related decisions beyond objective job attributes. Cable and Graham (2000) drew from a social identity perspective to suggest that job applicants will prefer organizations with positive reputations because applicants will associate such prestigious organizations with social status and self-esteem. Similar logic suggests firm reputation may also 5 influence the preferences of current employees. Moreover, Rindova and colleagues (2006) differentiate between reputation and celebrity status, arguing that firms achieve the latter not only based on public attention (i.e., through third party rankings of one sort or another), but also on emotional responses to that attention, which might be even stronger when this attention is focused on aspects of employee well-being than when it is linked to other aspects of firms such as outlandish new products or unusual firm financial performance. The possibility that current employee perceptions of an organization’s reputation or celebrity status as an employer could influence employment-related decisions such as turning over also raises questions about how employees form these perceptions and the extent to which organizations can shape them. Certainly, pre-hire perceptions and on-going work experiences can influence employee perceptions of what it is like to work at a particular organization, and many organizations and managers routinely attempt to communicate to employees that the organization is a desirable place to work. However, signaling theory (Spence, 1973) provides a rationale for why organizations may also seek third party employment branding, whereby they attempt to earn recognition for their positive employment brand from an external source. Specifically, whereas organizations of course can tell applicants and current employees that the company is a great place to work (and many do), individuals in organizations may question the veracity of such self-serving claims, especially if these exhortations are inconsistent with employees’ personal experiences. Bangerter, Roulin, and Konig (2012) recently described how signaling theory addresses the exchange of information among parties with somewhat divergent interests in a personnel selection context: communication senders attempt to send signals that are honest, reliable, costly, or hard to fake, because such signals are perceived as more credible. We extend this perspective 6 to organizational communication with current employees in a context in which the sender may be perceived as having incentives to be less than completely honest. Internal organizational branding efforts may be perceived this way; thus, organizations may seek third party employment branding endorsements as a way to communicate credible hard-to-fake signals to employees that the organization is indeed a great place to work. Such signals tend to incur costs (i.e., time and resource investment on the part of the organization) and are difficult to fake (because they are bestowed by a third party and thus are largely outside organizational control). A particularly interesting example of third party employment branding is the proliferation over the last decade of “Best Companies to Work For,” “Best Places to Work,” or similar evaluative certifications bestowed by third parties on companies with superlative employee relations practices. BPTW and similar programs have grown from fewer than ten nationwide in the late 1990s to more than one hundred today (Burke, 2010). Despite the obvious appeal and marketing benefits for companies recognized as BPTW, and despite third party organizers’ frequent claims regarding benefits such as decreased turnover, researchers have conducted few rigorous empirical investigations to demonstrate the direction and strength of these effects or the validity of claims often proffered by organizers (Roehling, Boswell, Caligiuri, Feldman, Graham, Guthrie, Morishima, & Tansky, 2005). Thus, companies entering these competitions – or, perhaps more importantly, continuing to enter year after year – do so without a clear understanding of potential gains to being named to these lists one or multiple times, or even whether being recognized in this way could have potential downsides. Given difficult economic conditions over the last several years, more limited employee mobility, and reduced job opportunities, companies may legitimately question whether they should devote resources to these competitions. As the economy improves, however, employees will likely have increased 7 mobility and choice (e.g., Allen, Bryant, & Vardaman, 2010), which implies that companies may need to enhance their employment brand images and strive to retain employees through ambitious people-management practices. Even if BPTW certifications are viewed by employees as a credible signal that their organization is a great place to work, there are legitimate competing theoretical perspectives as to the likely effects of such recognition on employee turnover. These perspectives are illustrated in Figure 1. As shown, an identity perspective suggests that being named a BPTW may reduce turnover rates as employees prefer to be associated with an organization visibly and credibly certified by a third party as having a positive employer image. However, a mobility perspective suggests that working for such an organization could increase alternative opportunities, and thus turnover rates. David D’Alessandro (2001, p. 152), former CEO of John Hancock, stated: “…the best brands are the best places to be from. These names work magic on a resume…” Therefore, we develop and test previously unexamined hypotheses designed to address several key research questions about the nature of third party employment branding effects on turnover rates and turnover trends across multiple branding cycles, as well as several moderators that may help elucidate contingencies surrounding this relationship. In particular, Bangerter et al. (2012) note that signaling systems consist not only of signals and senders, but also of receivers who must interpret signals. However, we know little about how receivers may interpret signals, so we focus our moderator analyses on characteristics of the organizational context and the nature of the workforce that are likely to influence receiver interpretation and subsequent reactions to being ranked in BPTW competitions. Our research uses archival information and survey data from U.S. and Canadian BPTWparticipating companies throughout four BPTW competition cycles. By using data from multiple 8 program cycles, our research addresses calls by strategic HR scholars for longitudinal studies (e.g., Wright, Gardner, Moynihan, & Allen, 2005). Our project also represents a break with past empirical work examining publicized employee-relations competitions such as BPTW. To our knowledge, this work has mostly examined BPTW outcomes using only publicly available data or limited employee data gathered in the competitions (e.g., Filbeck & Preece, 2003; Fulmer, Gerhart, & Scott, 2003; Lau & May, 1998). For example, Fulmer et al. compared Fortune “100 Best” companies with a matched group of companies that failed to make the list. They found that employee attitudes in the 100 Best were stable over time and that those companies performed better financially than the comparative sample. The authors acknowledged, however, that their small sample did not allow them to partial out prior performance. They also lacked actual company-provided competition data, which precluded examination of an intervening effect that they acknowledged and we are able to examine: changes in voluntary turnover. Trevor and Nyberg (2008) had access to employer data from the 1998 and 1999 100 Best competitions, but investigated only relationships between downsizing and turnover rather than turnover effects of making the 100 Best list. Thus, we know of no academic study that has used actual employer data from BPTW competitions to examine turnover as a function of BPTW rankings over multiple competition cycles. Turnover Following Third Party Employment Branding Theories about how individuals decide whether to remain with or leave their organization have historically emphasized that the way individuals feel about and evaluate the organization is an important driver of withdrawal-related cognitions and behaviors. In a comprehensive review, Holtom et al. (2008) suggested that future research would benefit from expanding beyond traditional individual-level attitudes such as job satisfaction and organizational commitment, to 9 address how organizational prestige influences withdrawal processes. These scholars also called for studies examining alternative explanations for turnover. Thus, we first develop competing hypotheses pertaining to the direction of third party employment branding effects on subsequent turnover. Potential decreases in turnover rates. Third party branding accolades, such as being identified as a great place to work, should on the one hand be associated with lower turnover. As shown in Figure 1, an identity perspective follows conventional wisdom and is plausible for organizations soliciting third party employment branding (e.g., by investing in BPTW competitions): BPTW rankings provide a credible signal to employees about the organization as an employer that are likely to reduce subsequent turnover for several reasons. First, BPTW success, especially over time, likely enhances corporate reputation and employment brand image. Employment brand image and corporate reputation research suggests that positive public recognition gained via internal company efforts or institutional intermediary-bestowed certifications can improve a company’s reputation and increase public perceptions that a company is a good employer. For example, Collins and Stevens (2002) found that publicity interacted with several recruitment-related practices (advertising, endorsements, sponsorship) to increase job seeker attitudes toward a company and the strength of perceived company attributes. Even more relevant to our context, Rindova et al. (2005) found that media rankings were the strongest predictor of organizational prominence (see also, Graffin & Ward, 2010). In turn, prominence likely increases the attractiveness of working for such a company and maintaining one’s association with such a company. Second, research suggests that employees prefer to identify themselves with a “winning” company burnished by reputational acclaim. Social identity theory (Tajfel & Turner, 1979) 10 proposes that individuals take pride in being associated with “winners” and seek to maintain their association with these entities (see also, Cable &Turban, 2003). Other work suggests that individuals prefer to be associated with organizations that have a positive image because doing so enhances perceived social status and self-esteem (Collins & Kanar, in press; Dutton, Dukerich, & Harquail, 1994; Gardner et al., 2011). For example, Cable & Graham (2000) suggested that individuals are attracted to organizations with more positive brands at least in part because joining such organizations is a public expression of the individual’s values. Remaining a member of a prestigious organization may serve a similar function. Thus, being part of an organization recognized by an external entity as a great place to work could influence turnover by reinforcing positive associations with being identified as a member of such an organization. Third, being recognized as a BPTW may further embed employees in the organization (e.g., Mitchell, Holtom, Sablynski, & Erez, 2001). Key considerations in why people remain with organizations include their perceived fit with the organization and the sacrifices they would incur by leaving. According to Collins and Kanar (in press), an important reason why brand image is important for influencing organization attraction is because of substantial research demonstrating that brand associations influence perceptions that a product, service, or organization will fit one’s needs. Thus, being associated with an organization that has a positive employer image is likely to increase perceptions of organizational fit. In turn, the perceived sacrifice of leaving might rise as the perceived likelihood of finding a similar or better situation elsewhere diminishes. Collins and Kanar (in press) further suggest that another reason brand image influences decision making is by providing potential justification for decisions to external constituents. Leaving a BPTW organization might entail a dual sacrifice: giving up a position at a prestigious organization and having to justify the decision to friends, family, or associates. 11 These constituents, if at all familiar with the company’s BPTW status, might ask “Why would you leave a company that treats its workers so well?” Hypothesis 1: Third party employment branding, in the form of BPTW rankings, will be negatively associated with employee turnover rates. Potential increases in turnover rates. Although the identity perspective is logical, it is important to keep in mind that, in addition to sending a credible signal to current employees, BPTW rankings may also send a credible signal to other potential employers. Recall the earlier quote that being from an organization with a strong brand image works ‘magic’ on a resume. Turnover theory emphasizes that the desire to leave an organization must be considered in conjunction with the ease of leaving (e.g., Holtom et al., 2008; March & Simon, 1958). If being associated with a BPTW increases external opportunities for current employees, this suggests an alternate mobility perspective: strong employment brand image could actually signal employee quality to the external market, thereby increasing employee mobility and turnover (see Figure 1). Specifically, reports suggest a resume building effect of brand image (e.g., DelVecchio, Jarvis, Klink, & Dineen, 2007; McNally & Spark, 2003; Peters, 1997). This further implies that representatives of outside firms may perceive BPTW-recognized companies as able to be more selective in hiring and more likely to develop employees’ skills. Such perceptions make employees of BPTW-recognized firms appear more desirable. DelVecchio et al. (2007) found that individuals view working for a strong brand as a way to build a powerful resume. Skill development has similarly been linked to individuals’ marketability (e.g., Bretz & Boudreau, 1994; March & Simon, 1958). This logic is akin to the previously referenced relationship between media rankings and the perceived quality (as well as prominence) dimension of firm 12 reputation (Rindova et al., 2005). Hence, BPTW employees may enjoy enhanced marketability, leading to greater risk that companies will lose them to turnover. Similarly, turnover theory also recognizes that job dissatisfaction is not the only path to turnover; sometimes even very satisfied employees leave. The unfolding model of turnover (Lee, Mitchell, Holtom, McDaniel, & Hill, 1999) identifies certain system “shocks” that may prompt turnover. A shock in this context is defined as any event that leads an individual to consider leaving their job. Interestingly, while many shocks may be negative in nature, the unfolding model emphasizes that some shocks can be positive. Indeed, Holtom, Mitchell, Lee, and Eberly (2005) found that 64% of these system shocks were positive. A BPTW ranking may be such a positive “shock.” By communicating a credible hard-to-fake signal about the company’s employment brand image to potential alternative employers, a BPTW ranking could increase the likelihood of turnover by making employees suddenly aware of their ease of movement via perceptions of marketability and mobility; by increasing actual job alternatives; and in some cases eliciting active attempts by external suitors to poach employees with unsolicited job offers. Specifically, where such a ranking enhances the company’s employment brand image, it also enhances the employees’ image, making them more appealing to these external suitors. Hypothesis 2: Third party employment branding, in the form of BPTW rankings, will be positively associated with employee turnover rates. Moderating Effects As noted earlier, signaling systems consist of signals and senders, as well as receivers who must interpret signals. Even if a signal is verifiable (e.g. being named a BPTW), the signal may be received and interpreted differently based on the context in which it is received or the characteristics of receivers. Thus, in the present context, enhanced employment brand image may 13 be more impactful for certain organizational or workforce types. That is, there may be conditions under which the effects on turnover rates of being named a BPTW could be stronger than others. We explore one organizational characteristic and two workforce characteristics as potential moderators that may help explain how third party employment branding influences turnover rates: organization size, workforce age, and baseline levels of workforce satisfaction. Organization size. First, we anticipate that organization size will moderate the effects of BPTW rankings on employee turnover. Rindova et al. (2005) recognized the small/large company distinction as important to future research on company reputation effects, and Rindova et al. (2006) suggest that celebrity effects are more likely to occur among previously lesser known organizations. Therefore, we propose a susceptibility effect whereby smaller companies (and the employees within those companies) are more susceptible to the effects of an employment brand image boost accompanying a BPTW ranking, in terms of employee turnover. By sheer size, larger companies are prone to greater baseline levels of reputation (i.e., their employer “track record” over time is likely better known) or employment brand image (Cable & Graham, 2000), reducing marginal gains for larger companies of signaling to their employees through a BPTW ranking. Smaller organizations are more likely to realize greater rents through public awards such as BPTW because the marginal effect of the signal that the organization is a great place to work is stronger, enhancing the marginal effect on turnover. Similarly, smaller companies may benefit to a greater extent from increased organizational identification and their employees may feel more personally responsible for its success in attaining positive third party employment branding. Because of their resource and reputational advantages, employees of larger organizations likely already benefit from perceptions of social status and esteem from being associated with these organizations. Thus, we 14 suggest that the marginal identification boost will be greater in smaller companies. Although it is possible that employees in smaller BPTW companies also benefit more from the external image boost, potentially increasing mobility, we propose that the employer brand image and identification effects will outweigh any boost in mobility. For larger companies, however, we propose the opposite. Because they likely already enjoy reputational and resource advantages associated with size, the identity enhancing effects of being named to a BPTW list will be relatively lower; thus, potential boosts to mobility based on external signaling of employee quality will negate potential reductions in turnover emanating from employee identification. Hypothesis 3: Company size will moderate the relationship between BPTW rankings and employee turnover rates; the relationship will be stronger for smaller companies than for larger companies. Workforce age. We anticipate a second susceptibility effect, such that workforce age will help explain the extent to which BPTW rankings influence turnover rates. Researchers have paid significant attention to the importance of understanding the work values, employment decisions, and mobility patterns of younger workers (e.g., Coster, 2007; Dutra, 2010; Pfeffer, 2005; Twenge, Campbell, Hoffman, & Lance, 2010). Some sources suggest that younger workers are more likely to quit and require greater levels of company engagement initiatives to retain them (e.g., Brin, 2011), although meta-analytic evidence has been relatively weak (e.g., Costanza, Badger, Fraser, Severt, & Gade, 2012; Ng & Feldman, 2009). As the workforce ages, companies also find it increasingly critical to understand how to retain older workers (e.g., Cadrain, 2007). We propose that in terms of turnover, older workers are less likely to be influenced by BPTW status than younger workers. First, older workers are likely to be more experienced and to 15 have longer and more varied track records of professional accomplishments. They are therefore less reliant on organizational status to boost their potential mobility or identification with their work. Older workers are also likely more embedded in their communities (Mitchell et al., 2001) and are thus buffered to a greater extent from system shocks such as BPTW rankings (Holtom et al., 2008). Moreover, they tend to have greater tenure with their organizations and are more attuned to generational norms regarding lifetime employment than younger workers (e.g., Cappelli, 2008). Thus, they are more likely to have developed significant side-bets (Becker, 1960) and tenure-related benefits, may be more embedded in the organization (Mitchell et al., 2001), and less in need of third party branding signals about their employer to enhance their external standing should they choose to search for alternative employment. Thus, it is less likely that the organizational identification and the possible mobility of older workers are amenable to the influence of BPTW signals. The organizational identification and thus retention of younger workers, on the other hand, may be more malleable. For example, although few academic studies have addressed differences in the importance of work values and work-life balance across age groups, the practitioner literature is replete with claims that younger workers more highly value working for organizations that emphasize employee well-being and work-life balance (e.g., Casserly, 2013; Schramm, 2004). Twenge et al. (2010) did find, in one of the few peer-reviewed academic studies, that leisure values were stronger among younger generational workers; work centrality was lower; and status-type values were higher among younger generations than among older generations. Thus, because of the status imbued by BPTW rankings, as well as the signals rankings send about ongoing people management practices, the impact of BPTW rankings on turnover rates should be greater in organizations with younger workforces. 16 Hypothesis 4: Workforce age will moderate the relationship between BPTW ranking history and employee turnover rates; the relationship will be stronger among younger workforces than older workforces. Workforce satisfaction. We have suggested that, in general, BPTW recognition should be viewed by employees as a credible signal that an organization is indeed a great place to work because participation is costly and the result is largely out of the organization’s control. However, this situation also raises interesting practical and theoretical concerns. From a practical perspective, organizations may have to make decisions about how much to invest in their workplace culture and people management strategies before applying for BPTW status. Theoretically, it is important to assess how employees react to ostensibly credible signals that nevertheless may be inconsistent with their own experiences. That is, there are likely to be employees in BPTW-recognized organizations for whom personal experiences do not match the purported signal being communicated. For example, a disenfranchised teller working for a bank that is named a BPTW by a third party may view the ranking as a “sham,” such that the effects of such branding fail to materialize or even have a reverse effect. Research on perceived amelioration suggests that future outcome expectations as well as the current situation can affect current attitudes (e.g., Aquino, Griffeth, Allen, & Hom, 1997). That is, when assessing current attitudes or making decisions about whether to stay or turn over, employees look not only at how they are currently faring, but how they believe their situation might be improved going forward. In the case of the teller working for a bank just recognized as a BPTW, he might perceive that (1) his current situation is untenable and (2) the bank is unlikely to make major improvements to its people-management practices going forward, given that it has 17 already been recognized as superior in that realm. Consistent with this, Aquino et al. (1997) found that amelioration likelihood was directly and negatively linked to withdrawal cognitions. We therefore hypothesize a sham effect in which employees embedded in organizational settings in which there tends to be less positive overall assessments of the work environment might be influenced in a somewhat counter-intuitive manner by positive external employment branding signals, compared to employees embedded in organizational settings in which there tends to be more positive overall assessments of the work environment. On the one hand, it is conceivable that dissatisfied employees in contexts in which they are outliers in terms of their evaluation of the workplace may be forced to re-evaluate their circumstances when presented with outside recognition of the employer as a great place to work. However, we suspect that in settings with many less satisfied employees, more of these employees will view a BPTW designation as a false signal because it is inconsistent with their own experiences as well as with general perceptions in the workplace. This, coupled with potential enhanced mobility in the wake of BPTW recognition for their company, suggests that employees in contexts where dissatisfaction tends to be the norm may actually be more prone to turnover following a BPTW designation. Based on the above, we propose: Hypothesis: 5: Workforce satisfaction will moderate the relationship between BPTW ranking history and employee turnover rates; the relationship will be negative among more satisfied workforces and positive among less satisfied workforces. Celebrity and crystallization effects. Whereas in previous sections we have developed predictions about the main and moderated effects of BPTW rankings on turnover rates, it is important to further investigate possible lag times and durations of these effects. Indeed, most 18 prior research has suggested a monotonic trend, reflecting simple linear relationships between positive publicity or endorsements, and employment brand image (e.g., Collins & Stevens, 2002). However, BPTW recognition is typically a periodically repeating event (most often annually), meaning that organizations can, and often do, compete for rankings year after year. This raises the question of whether repeat rankings continue to influence turnover rates the same way as initial rankings, or whether several consecutive rankings are required before discernible turnover effects materialize. This question is practically important because organizations must make repeated decisions whether to continue to compete for BPTW recognition. If the effects remain constant then such decisions may be different than if the effects are greatest after an initial ranking and then decline, or if they are initially weak, but gain strength after repeated rankings. The question is also theoretically important because signaling systems tend to adapt over time. For example, if every organization was designated a BPTW then the signal would lose efficacy for conveying useful information. Thus, at the organization level, it is fruitful to inquire whether repeated signaling of being named a BPTW in successive years continues to convey the same information, or whether subsequent repeated rankings begin to convey less useful information. Addressing these issues may also have implications for the unfolding model of turnover. This model focuses on shocks, but implicitly assumes a single shock that jars employees; in reality, many organization shocks may repeat over time (or have the potential to repeat), and exploring these shock patterns may advance understanding of how employees respond to potentially repeating patterns of shocks, or whether “shock values” dissipate over repeated episodes. Consistent with research finding that reputation-based (i.e., built more through consistency) and celebrity-based (i.e., built more through defining events) social status led to 19 different outcomes (e.g., Pfarrer, Pollock, & Rindova, 2010), we develop two additional competing perspectives. The first emanates from work describing certain organizations as “celebrities,” defined by Rindova et al. (2006: 51) as “firms that attract a high level of public attention and generate positive emotional responses from stakeholder audiences.” Both of these criteria as likely met through BPTW rankings: the rankings bring publicity to the organization in terms of the initial pronouncement as well as ongoing marketing highlighting the earned accolade. Such acclaim is also likely to have an emotional impact on current employees, who are key stakeholders. Specifically, as shown in Figure 2, based on the idea of celebrity firms, a celebrity trend suggests rapid initial results (i.e., decreased turnover) but diminishing marginal returns over time. Here a sharp initial decrease in turnover is likely following a publicized shift in employment brand image, such as making a BPTW list for the first time. Subsequently, this decrease likely continues with consecutive rankings, but with diminishing returns as a company continues to be ranked. Returning to the signaling perspective, third party employment branding likely communicates more useful information when it is novel, with information usefulness diminishing with repeated rankings. Hypothesis 6: Whereas turnover rates will be unchanged across ranking periods for non-ranked organizations, turnover rates among organizations ranked for the first time and then consecutive times after that will exhibit a negative linear trend and a positive quadratic trend (i.e., decreasing at a decreasing rate). Whereas we believe the celebrity perspective is a viable explanation for turnover trends following third party employment branding episodes, an alternative perspective is also possible. Specifically, enhancement of an organization’s employment image through third party employment branding may take longer to translate to outcomes such as turnover, suggesting 20 those outcomes (i.e., decreased turnover) may be slighter at the outset, but may gain momentum over time in the form of turnover that decreases at an increasing rate as consecutive rankings are earned. As shown in Figure 3, a crystallization trend draws on the attributions and reputation literatures (Nishii, Lepak, & Schneider, 2008; Rindova et al., 2005; Weiner, 1986) and suggests that employees likely make stability attributions when evaluating these third party proclamations, and look for consistent signals of quality. In the case of employee relations issues, they may look for consistency in employee-friendly policies and handling of employee-related issues (Rindova et al., 2005, 2006). Specifically, as consumers “wait to see how legitimate a new brand is going to be” (e.g., GoogleGlass), employees might react (i.e., in terms of turning over or staying) only to BPTW companies that demonstrate through consistent rankings that they have stable employee-friendly policies. That is, employees may develop stability attributions about employee-friendly policies and become extraordinarily identified with their company only after the company earns BPTW rankings in successive years. Absent consistent rankings (i.e.., failure to repeat), employee identity, and thus turnover, will not discernibly change because employees will perceive that changes to the employment brand are whimsical or unstable. Hypothesis 7: Whereas turnover rates will be unchanged across ranking periods for non-ranked organizations, turnover rates among organizations ranked for the first time and then consecutive times after that will exhibit a negative linear trend and a negative quadratic trend (i.e., decreasing at an increasing rate). METHOD We obtained data from an independent company that organizes and conducts over forty state-based, industry-based, and international BPTW competitions. Organizations pay an entry fee to enter the competitions, and the competitions occur annually. Upon entering a competition, 21 organizations complete an employer survey which includes items regarding organization-wide employment practices (e.g., work-life initiatives, salaries) and outcomes (e.g., turnover). At the same time, a subset of employees in each organization (at least 40%, and 80% in companies with fewer than twenty employees) completes an employee survey which includes demographic information and items tapping perceptions of the workplace as well as employee satisfaction and demographics. In the months following submission of this survey data, the company running the competition uses these data to determine whether entrants are ranked or not for that year. Specific rankings for companies “making the list” are publicized soon thereafter, usually at an awards banquet and through media channels. Regardless of ranking outcome, all participating companies receive a detailed feedback report generated by the company organizing the competition. Data made available for the present research comprised fifteen of these competitions across the United States and one in Canada, for a period of four years (2009-2012). In total, 4,343 companies participated in these competitions in at least one of the four years under study. Of these, 624 participated and reported turnover in both 2009 and 2012, and thus were eligible for inclusion in the analyses. The final analysis sample size after listwise deletion of included variables was 515. Measures Several of the measures used in this study are objective (e.g., whether a company was ranked in a BPTW competition or not, in which size category it competed) or ask company representatives to report company statistics (e.g., voluntary turnover). These and other measures, assessed each year a company participated in a BPTW competition, are described below. 22 Voluntary employee turnover rates. The voluntary turnover measure is similar to McElroy, Morrow, and Rude (2001). Company representatives completing the employer survey were asked, “What was your organization’s percentage of voluntary turnover in the last fiscal year?” Company size. Organizations joining BPTW competitions compete in company size categories ranging from small to large, with some designated as “small/medium” or “medium.” Although precise cutoffs can vary across BPTW competitions, companies are typically considered small if they comprise fewer than 50 employees, small/medium if they comprise between 50-249 employees, and medium or large as size increases from there. For our purposes we therefore created two size categories: the first comprised companies designated as small and small/medium (coded 0), and the second comprised companies designated medium and large (coded 1). Workforce age. Employees completing the employer survey were asked to indicate their age with the following item: “What is your age.” (1 = less than 21; 2 = 21-25; 3 = 26-35; 4 = 3645; 5 = 46-55; 6 = 56-65; 7 = above 65). Responses were aggregated such that workforce age was the mean of these responses across employees surveyed in each respective company in 2009. Workforce satisfaction. As part of the employee survey process, employees were also asked, “Overall, how satisfied are you with this organization as an employer?” (1 = very dissatisfied to 5 = very satisfied). Responses were aggregated such that workforce satisfaction was the mean of these responses across surveyed employees in each respective company in 2009. BPTW rankings. In addition to supplying employer and employee survey data for the competitions under study, the company running the BPTW competitions supplied for purposes of this research complete rosters of participating companies and rankings data for each year of the 23 competition. Using these data, we constructed the primary independent variable, operationalizing it as the number of rankings (0, 1, 2, or 3) organizations achieved during the 2009-2011 competitions. Control variables. We used archival data supplied by the organizing company to retroactively create variables representing prior participation and ranking records, both of which were used as control variables in tests of Hypotheses 1-5. For example, the Hawaii competition has existed since 2005, whereas the Pennsylvania competition (the oldest for the organizing company) has existed since 2000. Thus, participation prior to 2009 was operationalized as the total number of times an organization participated in a BPTW competition between 2000 and 2008, whereas rankings prior to 2009 was operationalized as the total number of times that an organization was ranked between the years 2000 and 2008. We also controlled for any changes in reported compensation across the study period, to account for a plausible alternative explanation for voluntary turnover. For example, it is possible that mobility or identity processes would materialize if compensation was relatively lower or higher, respectively. Participating organizations were asked on the employer survey to report average salary levels for their exempt and non-exempt workforces in each year of the competition under study (2009-2012). Specific items on the employer survey were, “Average annual salary for exempt employees (including partners if salaried)” and “Average annual salary for non-exempt employees.” We computed a percentage change in exempt and non-exempt salaries from 2009 to 2012. Finally, we controlled for lagged (2009) voluntary turnover rates when examining 2012 turnover rates (Wright et al., 2005). Analysis Approach 24 We tested Hypotheses 1-5 using hierarchical regression analysis and Hypotheses 6-7 using random coefficient modeling (RCM). For the RCM analyses, we only examined organizations that had never been ranked before (i.e., were either ranked or not for the first time in 2009), to allow for conclusions about the effects of first-time and subsequent rankings. We followed Bliese and Ployhart’s (2002) four-step process for conducting RCM (see also, Dunford, Shipp, Boss, Angermeier, & Boss, 2012). In the Level 1 analyses, we first estimated the intraclass correlation coefficient, ICC(1), to establish that there was sufficient betweenorganization variance in turnover to justify continued analyses between organizations across time. Second, we used orthogonal polynomial terms representing linear and quadratic trends to model proposed changes in turnover and increases or decreases in those changes over time. Third, we investigated whether there was between-organization variance in the intercepts and slopes (i.e., a random effect as well as fixed effect). This demonstrates potential differences in baseline turnover, as well as trajectories of turnover, across companies. Fourth, we tested autoregressive, unstructured, and autoregressive-heterogeneous error structures given the likelihood that error terms could be correlated across time with the use of repeated measures. Following these initial tests, we added the Level 2 ranking term (i.e., whether a given organization was consistently ranked (coded 1) or unranked (coded 0) from 2009-2011). This term was then tested as a predictor of the intercept, slope and curvature of turnover over time. All RCM analyses were conducted using the SPSS linear mixed model function and restricted maximum likelihood estimation. This estimation method allows for missing data in one or more measurement periods, whereas traditional methods employ listwise deletion which can considerably reduce sample size. For our purposes, we required that organizations completed at least two of the four surveys from 2009-2012 to be included. 25 RESULTS Means, standard deviations, and correlations for the organizational level data appear in Table 1. Visual inspection of the data revealed the possibility of outlying cases in which turnover was erroneously reported by company representatives.1 Thus, in testing Hypotheses 1-5, we identified and removed cases from the final analyses that met both of the following criteria. First, we screened for outliers using Bollen and Jackman’s (1990) low screening criteria for the standardized dFits diagnostic statistic. According to these authors, this statistic offers a balance between identifying studentized residuals and influential cases. Second, for those cases identified as potential outliers, we also examined the raw data to ensure that reported turnover between 2009 and 2012 was at least four times different. This process resulted in 22 cases being removed from these analyses, yielding a final sample size of 493. For the RCM analyses, because we were interested in the pattern of turnover across adjacent years rather than just an overall change from 2009 to 2012, we also removed cases in which turnover between adjacent time periods was at least four times different. This yielded a final sample of 448 organizations for these analyses. Unit Level Analyses Hypotheses 1 and 2 were competing hypotheses proposing either a negative (i.e., identity perspective) or positive (i.e., mobility perspective) relationship between BPTW rankings and turnover rates. After entering control variables in the first step, we regressed 2012 turnover on the number of rankings achieved between 2009-2011. Results revealed a negative relationship between rankings and turnover (β = -.09; R2 = .01; p < .05), providing support for the identity perspective (Hypothesis 1) but not the mobility perspective (Hypothesis 2). For example, one survey response indicated “0.3” for turnover, which could mean 0.3%, or 30%. In another case, an organization reported 86% turnover in 2009, but then 4%, 2%, and 2% turnover in 2010-2012, respectively. Here, it could be the case that a respondent was indicating “86 employees turned over” in 2009, rather than 86% turnover. 1 26 Hypothesis 3 proposed that the main effect of rankings on turnover rates would be moderated by organization size, such that effects would be stronger among smaller companies. This hypothesis was supported. As shown in Table 2 and illustrated in Figure 3, the relationship between rankings and turnover was negative among smaller organizations and essentially flat among larger organizations (β = .27; R2 = .01; p < .05). Hypothesis 4 proposed that the rankings-turnover rate relationship would be moderated by workforce age, such that effects would be stronger among organizations with younger workforces. This hypothesis was supported. As shown Table 3 and illustrated in Figure 4, the relationship between rankings and turnover was negative among organizations with younger workforces and essentially flat among organizations with older workforces (β = .19; R2 = .01; p < .05). Hypothesis 5 proposed that the rankings-turnover rate relationship would be moderated by baseline workforce satisfaction, such that effects would be negative among organizations with initially more satisfied workforces and positive among organizations with initially less satisfied workforces. The interaction term was significant (β = -.16, R2 = .01; p < .05), but the hypothesis was only partially supported. Figure 5 shows that the relationship between rankings achieved from 2009-2011 and turnover reported in 2012 was negative among organizations with workforces that were more satisfied as of 2009. However, among organizations with less satisfied workforces, this relationship also exhibited a negative, but non-significant, slope. Thus, among more dissatisfied workforces, BPTW rankings do not appear to impact turnover rates. Turnover Trend Analysis: Random Coefficient Modeling Hypotheses 6 and 7 examined turnover trends across the four-year (2009-2012) time period, comparing turnover rates in organizations that were (1) ranked for the first time in 2009, 27 and subsequently ranked in the next two years, to organizations that (2) failed to achieve a ranking during this time. Following Bliese and Ployhart’s (2002) four-step procedure, the ICC(1) value indicated that 77% of the variance in turnover was due to between-organization factors. Second, tests of fixed effects revealed neither a linear (γ = -1.25; n.s.) nor quadratic (γ = .42; n.s.) trend for the sample as a whole. However, in keeping with our theory, we retained both terms in subsequent steps to test for differences between ranked and unranked organizations (e.g., Snijders & Bosker, 1999). Third, we found that model fit improved significantly with a random intercept (χ2diff (1) = 587.1, p < .01). Further improvement was discovered with the addition of a random linear term (χ2diff (1) = 24.1, p < .01), as well as a random quadratic term (χ2diff (1) = 6.9, p < .01). Combined, these results imply that organizations differ in their baseline level of turnover, as well as the rate of change and acceleration/deceleration over time. Finally, after testing various error structures, we found that the autoregressive, heterogeneous structure provided the best fit (χ2diff (4) = 24.2, p < .01), and was thus retained in all further analyses. The final baseline model appears in Table 5 (Model 1). To test Hypotheses 6-7, we added the ranking dummy variable as a Level 2 predictor (Table 5, Model 2), as well as the linear x ranking and quadratic x ranking terms (Table 5, Models 3 and 4). As shown, consistently ranked organizations exhibited lower initial turnover than nonranked organizations (γ = -3.02; p < .01), but did not exhibit a stronger decrease in turnover over time than non-ranked companies (γ = -.05; n.s.). However, Model 4 results show that quadratic trends differ across these groups (γ = .68; p < .05). Figure 7 provides a graphic depiction of these results, and illustrates a pattern more consistent with Hypothesis 6 (i.e., the celebrity effect). Specifically, graphic and statistical results indicate that, compared to unranked companies, the sharpest decrease in turnover occurs following a first-time ranking, with turnover essentially 28 leveling off but remaining lower following a second consecutive ranking. This pattern is consistent with the celebrity hypothesis, suggesting that the greatest benefits of third party employment branding occur at its outset, yet diminish over time. However, whereas the results for the period 2009-2011 are most consistent with the celebrity hypothesis, the pattern following a third consecutive ranking is unexpected, showing an increase in turnover, essentially back to original levels (albeit still lower than among non-ranked organizations). This partially explains the lack of a significant difference in overall linear trends across groups. Thus, overall we find partial support for Hypothesis 6 (celebrity effect) and no support for Hypothesis 7 (crystallization effect). DISCUSSION This study combines and advances the turnover and employment branding literatures by developing and testing predictions regarding the effects of third party employment branding on turnover rates across a four-year period. Specifically, we draw on signaling theory to explain why organizations might invest in efforts to engage third parties in employment branding efforts, via providing credible hard-to-fake signals to current employees. These signals ostensibly communicate to employees that they are employed at great places to work and are best served by remaining with their organization. Thus, we extend previous research on employment branding in two critical ways. First, we move beyond work that has mostly considered employment branding for purposes of attracting talent, by considering the equally if not more important issue of retaining talent. Second, we specifically consider branding that is initiated by third party sources, rather than generated by the organization itself. We also provide a unique study of third party employment branding that makes use of actual data gathered during a recognized certification process (i.e., BPTW competitions); answer calls from employee turnover scholars to 29 study the effects of organizational reputation (e.g., Holtom et al., 2008); and provide evidence about the likely efficacy of investing in BPTW competitions for organizations considering these investments. Consistent with calls for more investigations that examine alternative explanations for turnover (e.g., Holtom et al., 2008), we proposed competing identity and mobility perspectives to explain potential relationships between third party employment branding and subsequent turnover rates. In general, we find more support for identity effects: BPTW rankings are significantly negatively related to subsequent turnover rates even while controlling for baseline turnover, previous participation and rankings in BPTW competitions, and changes in compensation across a four-year period with three ranking cycles. This finding is consistent with our argument that third party employment branding as a great place to work can help embed current employees in the organization and increase the tendency for those employees to identify with the organization. This finding also suggests that the internal signaling effect of third party branding outweighs any possible effects that could yield increased mobility via signaling employee quality to the external market. We also found support for proposed susceptibility and sham effects: relationships with turnover rates depend on characteristics of the organization and the workforce. In particular, our results suggest that third party employment branding efforts are more effective in reducing turnover in smaller organizations; among organizations with younger workforces; and in workplaces where baseline employee satisfaction is relatively higher. These results extend the unfolding model of turnover by specifying examples of groups likely to share elements of preexisting schema that influence responses to system-wide shocks, which in our context can be considered positive shocks. Smaller organizations may have fewer resources to invest in third 30 party branding efforts, so it is useful to provide evidence that they may benefit to a greater extent from these third party certifications. Organizations also sometimes struggle to retain younger workers. In our sample, whereas younger-workforce turnover was unsurprisingly higher overall, BPTW rankings narrowed the turnover gap between younger and older workforces considerably. The observed sham effect also extends signaling theory by considering the effects of potentially conflicting signals. The third party branding signal in this case had less of an impact on turnover rates in organizations with relatively less satisfied workforces to begin with. This suggests such signals may be less effective when they are at odds with pre-existing perceptions. This is quite similar to the suggestion in the unfolding model of turnover that one of the key mechanisms explaining reactions to shocks is the evaluation of fit or misfit with pre-existing schema (Lee et al., 1999). Signaling theory suggests the possibility of sending fake or dishonest signals; our results suggest it would not be effective for organizations to attempt to communicate signals that are at odds with the experience of many employees in their workforces, prior to actually developing their organization into a great place to work. On the other hand, the effects of rankings appear to be stronger when the bulk of the workforce experiences the work environment in a manner consistent with the third party branding signal. We also develop celebrity and crystallization perspectives to examine temporal effects associated with repeated third party employment branding certifications over time. Our results are more consistent with a celebrity effect, in that there appears to be initially stronger decreases in turnover following first-time third party employment branding, but diminishing returns in terms of turnover reduction with repeated endorsements. In fact, our data suggest that repeated rankings could eventually lose their efficacy altogether: for organizations repeatedly ranked, turnover rates decline subsequent to the first ranking, but return to initial levels following a third 31 successive ranking. This is another important extension to signaling theory and the unfolding model of turnover. Repeated signals or shock events may not only get weaker; they may also lose their efficacy altogether. There are several possible explanations for this observed pattern of results. One is that the identity enhancing effects of third party employment branding diminish or even extinguish after the initial signal. That is, learning for the first time that one’s organization is a BPTW enhances organizational identification, in line with work examining celebrity firms (Pfarrer et al., 2010; Rindova et al., 2006). However, learning that one’s organization is still a BPTW, and thus enjoys an enhanced reputation gained through longer-term signal consistency (Rindova et al. 2005), may not further enhance identification. Similarly, whereas an employment-related shock may jar considerations of withdrawal, repetition of the same shock (at least a positive shock) may not. Another possibility is that proposed mobility effects take longer to manifest than identity effects. It may be the case that the internal signaling effects of third party branding are quick and largely under the control of the organization (i.e. the organization can broadcast the signal directly to employees); however, external signaling effects to competing employers may take longer to manifest. Other organizations may not learn about BPTW certifications or the information may not be as salient in the short run; however, over time and with repeated rankings, competing organizations may begin to perceive that the BPTW organization is a good source of talent. Although we recognize that we have not specifically explored these intervening mechanisms in this study, we believe they offer several fruitful areas in which further turnover and employment branding studies can expand. Limitations 32 Although we believe our results contribute to research and theory in several areas, they should be viewed in concert with some limitations, many of which derive from the archival nature of these data. First, organization mortality from the sample places limitations on the generalizability of our results. Specifically, while we were able to track turnover and assess changes in turnover among companies that continued to compete in BPTW programs, organizations that initially competed but then ceased competing did not provide ongoing data once they withdrew. Thus, for example, we were not able to track changes in turnover from 2009 to 2012 among companies that entered BPTW competitions in 2009 but not in 2012. Second, given the nature of these data, we are unable to directly assess some of the proposed individual-level processes and mediating mechanisms that underlie the observed relationships. For example, we suggest that the proposed identity effect is partially a function of increased individual identification with and embeddedness in the organization, and we conclude that the effects on individual identification are stronger than the effects on individual mobility. However, we were not able to isolate and study these individual-level processes. For example, it is possible that mobility effects are still occurring: it could be the case that the identity effects are quite strong among employees with limited mobility, but the exit of mobile employees who experience increased external opportunities attenuates this observed relationship. Future research that is able to address these individual-level processes would provide valuable additional insight. Third, it is possible that baseline turnover among BPTW entrants (i.e., study participants) was lower than turnover in the population of organizations, which could attenuate observed effects. That is, it is likely that organizations that seek to enter BPTW competitions are already among the elite of the population of organizations when it comes to people management 33 practices, or at least perceive themselves that way. This suggests potentially lower turnover on average among these entrants than among more typical organizations that choose not to compete. Finally, we recognize potential problems of utilizing company representatives to furnish organizational level data such as turnover and compensation (Gerhart, Wright, McMahan, & Snell, 2000). Although these data should ideally be straightforward to access and more reliable than perceptual measures, organizations may differ in the rigor with which they track these statistics, and we recognize the potential for misreported data, especially when company representatives know it is being used in algorithms to determine eventual BPTW rankings. Practical Implications Despite these limitations, we believe the results of this study may be valuable to organization in several ways. First, companies cumulatively spend millions of dollars in annual BPTW entry fees (Burke, 2010). Our results suggest it is theoretically and practically sound for organizations to consider investing in third party employment branding, as it appears to decrease turnover rates. However, beyond justifying expenses of entering competitions for a first time, it may be even more important to justify costs of entering multiple times. Thus, for example, HR managers and CEOs need to know whether it is advisable to re-enter after being ranked. They must also decide how many times they should fail to be ranked before prudence calls for them to stop trying. Our results suggest initial positive results, but potentially diminishing returns to multiple rankings such that two consecutive rankings appears to be the optimal number, and rankings beyond that may actually yield turnover levels more in line with original levels. Of course, there are likely several other benefits to BPTW success that should be considered, such as the quantity and quality of applicants a BPTW company receives for its position openings, or even spillovers to consumer reactions and purchasing patterns. Thus, we do not propose that 34 organizations cease competing in BPTW competitions after only a few years; but rather that they carefully consider possible turnover effects in concert with other potential advantages and disadvantages of competing. Second, our research helps identify the type of companies that likely benefit from participating. For example, we have shown that beneficial differences in turnover might accrue to smaller versus larger companies, companies with younger versus older workforces, and companies with more versus less satisfied workforces. In this latter case, it is interesting to note that it appears companies cannot “compete” their way to reduced turnover via BPTW success. That is, if their workforce is relatively dissatisfied to start, it is unlikely that they would be ranked at all. However, should they somehow become ranked, our evidence suggests that this form of third party employment branding may not sufficiently convince dissatisfied workers to remain with the organization. Rather, companies need an initially satisfied workforce for decreased turnover to materialize. Third, following the previous point, it seems intuitive that BPTW companies would enjoy greater employee retention. However, mobility arguments suggest that certain workers (e.g., younger) may use their companies’ new rankings as leverage to obtain other jobs, and our results suggest the possibility that this occurs after several consecutive rankings. Thus, companies may better target retention efforts at certain groups of employees or monitor turnover patterns more carefully over time. Future Research Directions Several future research directions are possible, and we encourage scholars to continue investigations in this area. For example, while turnover is an important outcome of BPTW success, future work should examine other potential outcomes, such as longer-term financial 35 metrics, applicant pool characteristics, or even product marketing benefits that emanate from one-time or a continued pattern of third party employment branding certifications. Our initial attempt to develop theoretical perspectives could be overlaid on these additional studies. For example, it might be that although the celebrity effect seems more explanatory than the crystallization effect in regard to turnover, the opposite could be the case in regard to applicant pool outcomes, with job seekers requiring a more consistent pattern of rankings (and thus enhanced reputation) before they act on them. Current employees, already being more familiar with their employees than job seekers, may react more quickly to third party signals such as BPTW rankings. Likewise, current consumers might quickly increase their loyalty to companies that are certified as treating their employees well, whereas consumers currently using competing products might require more stability in ranking patterns before they will switch product allegiances because of a positive employee relations record. These suggestions also raise the interesting possibility of spillover effects from third party employment branding to increases in product brand image. For example, sources suggest that certain consumer groups – particularly younger consumers – account for aspects of organizations such as corporate social responsibility when making purchasing decisions (e.g., Jayson, 2006). It is possible that certifiable perceptions of employment practices could also have this effect. In terms of how long it takes for third party employment branding effects to materialize and how they persist, we have identified and tested two possible trends by which turnover might increase with continued success in BPTW competitions. However, other trends are possible, such as a one-time BPTW ranking followed by a non-ranking. Outcome sustainability has been explored in areas such as personnel selection and strategic HR. In this latter area, for example, Wright et al. (2005) addressed causality of HR practices on firm performance. They used a time 36 lag of fifteen months, but called for studies to employ even longer time spans. For example, an adoption-diffusion trend derives from classic adoption-diffusion s-curve models of new product acceptance (e.g., Rogers, 1962) and combines celebrity and crystallization trends. Specifically, this model suggests that early acceptance is slow and limited to “innovators” and early adopters, but is followed by an exponential increase as momentum builds among early and late majorities. Finally, acceptance slows at later stages. These and other possible reaction trends should be further tested as third party employment branding research continues to expand. Finally it would be fruitful to examine how the organization itself reacts to third party employment branding episodes. For example, a control theory perspective (Carver & Scheier, 2000) would suggest that BPTW-successful companies might “rest on their laurels” and not take further steps to enhance their people-management offerings. Yet other firms might build on their success and seek to further differentiate themselves from competitors on employee-related issues. Or, firms that are not initially successful might redouble efforts to achieve ranking success. 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Personnel Psychology, 58, 409-446. 43 Table 1: Means, Standard Deviations, and Correlations among Study Variables a Variable Mean SD 1 2 3 4 1. BPTW participation pre2009 .94 1.19 2. BPTW rankings pre-2009 .91 1.43 3. Percent change in nonexempt salaries, 2009-2012 6.82 22.96 .01 .01 4. Percent change in exempt salaries, 2009-2012 10.05 43.15 .02 .02 .51** 5. Turnover 2009 11.13 10.30 .08 .07 -.02 .05 5 6 7 8 9 .90** 6. Organization Size b .67 .47 .02 .02 .01 .05 .16** 7. Workforce Age 4.03 .45 .08 .07 .06 .03 -.14** .04 8. Workforce Satisfaction 4.37 .25 .05 .11* -.01 -.03 -.23** -.12* -.04 9. Rankings, 2009-2011 2.07 1.10 .20** .21** -.02 -.05 -.10* -.10* -.02 .54** 10. Turnover 2012 10.32 9.27 .06 .02 -.01 .02 .48** .13** -.24** -.10* -.13** N = between 392 and 493. a b Turnover and salary descriptive statistics are percentages (i.e., “6.82” means 6.82%). Coded as 0 = small; 1 = large * p < .05; ** p < .01 44 Table 2: Regression Results with Organization Size Moderator a Variables Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Control Variables BPTW participation pre-2009 BPTW rankings pre-2009 Change in non-exempt salaries 2009-2012 Change in exempt salaries 2009-2012 Turnover 2009 .18 -.18 .18 -.16 .18 -.16 .19 -.17 .01 .01 .01 .01 -.01 .45** -.02 .43** -.02 .42** -.02 .42** -.14** -.14** -.28** .05 -.17 Independent Variable BPTW rankings 2009-2011 Moderating Variable Organization size Interaction Term BPTW rankings x size R2 a .27* .21** .02* .00 .01* Standardized regression coefficients shown. Dependent variable is 2012 turnover. * p < .05 ** p < .01 45 Table 3: Regression Results with Workforce Age Moderator a Variables Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Control Variables BPTW participation pre-2009 BPTW rankings pre-2009 Change in non-exempt salaries 2009-2012 Change in exempt salaries 2009-2012 Turnover 2009 .15 -.15 .16 -.14 .17 -.13 .17 -.14 .01 .01 .02 .01 -.01 .48** -.02 .47** -.02 .44** -.01 .44** -.09* -.10* -.10* -.19** -.35** Independent Variable BPTW rankings 2009-2011 Moderating Variable Workforce age Interaction Term BPTW rankings x age R2 a .19* .24** .01* .03** .01* Standardized regression coefficients shown. Dependent variable is 2012 turnover. * p < .05 ** p < .01 46 Table 4: Regression Results with Workforce Satisfaction Moderator a Variables Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 .15 -.15 .16 -.14 .18 -.16 .20* -.18 .01 .01 .01 .01 -.01 .48** -.02 .47** -.02 .48** -.02 .48** -.09* -.13** -.17** .09 .24** Control Variables BPTW participation pre-2009 BPTW rankings pre-2009 Change in non-exempt salaries 2009-2012 Change in exempt salaries 2009-2012 Turnover 2009 Independent Variable BPTW rankings 2009-2011 Moderating Variable Workforce satisfaction Interaction Term BPTW rankings x satisfaction R2 a -.16* .24** .01* .01 .01* Standardized regression coefficients shown. Dependent variable is 2012 turnover. * p < .05 ** p < .01 47 Table 5: Random Coefficient Models Predicting Turnover over Time Model 1 γ SE Model 2 t γ SE Model 3 t γ SE Model 4 t γ SE t Variables Intercept 11.31 .57 19.89 12.31 .64 19.17** 12.28 .69 17.80** 12.06 .69 BPTW participation pre-2009 2.00 1.02 1.96 1.77 .97 1.82 1.81 .95 1.91 1.93 .95 2.04* Linear -1.25 .52 -1.35 .57 -2.37* -.59 .68 -.87 Quadratic Ranking Linear x Ranking Quadratic x Ranking .42 .17 -2.39 -1.39 .51 -2.76** 2.46 .45 .16 2.76** .45 .17 2.64** -3.02 1.01 -2.99** -3.00 1.09 -2.74** -.05 .46 -.12 .18 .21 -2.86 1.09 17.58** .84 -2.62** -1.88 1.02 -1.84 .68 .33 2.03* N = 448 organizations. * p < .05 ** p < .01 48 Figure 1: Hypothesized Effects of BPTW Ranking on Turnover 49 Figure 2: Hypothesized Celebrity Turnover Trend 50 Figure 3: Hypothesized Crystallization Turnover Trend 51 Figure 4: Moderating Effect of Company Size on the BPTW Rankings-Turnover Relationship, 2009-2012 52 Figure 5: Moderating Effect of Workforce Age on the BPTW Rankings-Turnover Relationship, 2009-2012 53 Figure 6: Moderating Effect of 2009 Workforce Satisfaction on the BPTW Rankings-Turnover Relationship, 2009-2012 54 Figure 7: Trajectories of Turnover for Consistently Ranked and Unranked Companies between 2009-2012. 55