Lesser Prairie-Chicken Science Team Meeting Holiday Inn & Suites Denver International Airport August 30-31, 2012 Facilitator: Bill Van Pelt (WAFWA) Intent of the meeting: The LPCIWG invites you to assist in the development of criteria to address the following rangewide lesser prairie-chicken conservation issues: Population and habitat goals Identification of conservation focal areas Estimating habitat loss as a function of potential development Identifying potential changes to existing conservation programs to counteract habitat loss At minimum, we expect to identify directions and data sources required for these criteria. Future meetings or webinars may be required to fully address these issues. August 29 (Travel day) 7:00 PM Planning meeting for 5-member core LPCIWG August 30 8:00 AM Purpose and Meeting objectives 8:15 AM WAFWA Grassland Initiative and LPCIWG background Range-wide management plan and CHAT, Bill Van Pelt and Jon Haufler Develop a scientific foundation for population goals and habitat needs for the range-wide plan Introductions Bill Van Pelt, WAFWA Sean Kyle, TPWD Jim Pitman, KDWPT Doug Schoeling, ODWC Grant Beauprez, NMGF David Klute, CPW Lyman Mc Donald, West Ecosystems Technology Jon Haufler, EMRI Dwayne Elmore, OK State University 8:30 AM Dan Mulhern, USFWS Don Wolfe, Sutton Research Center/ Univ. of OK Christian Hagen, Oregon State University/NRCS Alex Daniels, PLJV Blake Grisham, TTU Dave Haukos, USGS Hannah Powell, ODWC Chris O’Melia, USFWS Allison Arnold, USFWS Aron Flanders, USFWS Partners Establishing population goals Update on range-wide aerial survey effort, Lyman McDonald o See PowerPoint o Future preferences of the science team: Partial fixed sample, pre-stratified for LPC region, partial rotating panel Annual monitoring at least for the next 10 years Review of the basis for population goals in the OK LPC Conservation Plan, John Haufler How should we define population goals? o State verses ecoregional population goals? The Science team agreed on LPC regional population goals Translate those into state-level goals for habitat and populations How might we set those goals? o The Science Team collectively recognizes the limitations of historic population data and the lack of a range-wide or LPC regional population viability analysis to set those goals o The group agrees to utilize long term population average, trend and variability information as a basis for setting draft goals on an LPC regional basis. o The group agrees to consider the possible conservation opportunities for each LPC region to estimate how much these populations might increase from active habitat management and restoration. LPC regional goals o SOPR—We estimate that focused habitat work could increase that long-term average to 10,000 birds (~5,000-15,000 range) o SSPR—We estimate that conservation efforts could produce an average of approximately 6,000 birds (2,000-8,000) o MGPR— We estimate that conservation efforts could produce an average of approximately 20,000 birds (10-30k) o SGPR— We estimate that conservation efforts could produce an average of approximately 30,000 birds (20K-40K) o Total range-wide 66,000 average (37,000-93,000) The team agrees to set these as 10 year goals The team agrees that information from the analysis that Oz Garton for the LPCIWG to estimate the potential risk of extirpation by LPC region will inform or confirm these draft goals. o A draft of that work is expected in late October. 10:00 AM Break 10:15 AM Estimating habitat requirements to achieve population goals 1:00 PM Defining criteria for conservation focal areas August 31 Option 1: Develop LPC region-based estimates for habitat requirements o Aerial survey data back-forecasted to get average and variance of density estimates—Oz Garton Action Item—Christian Hagen o Estimate suitable habitat within each ecoregion—USGS-FORT Action Item—Jim Pitman o Apply aerial survey estimates to suitable habitat for each ecoregion to develop habitat goals Option 2: Start with 5-10 birds per mile as a straw man model to be confirmed or refuted by option 1 How much of our populations goals should be supported by focal areas? o OK used 50% o The group agrees to start with 75% o 75% at 5/mile = 6,336,000 acres o 75% at 10/mile = 3,168,000 acres Linkage zones between IWG State members will develop drafts by Oct Draft guidelines for focal areas o Average size > 50,000 acres ~180 focal areas on average if 70% all suitable, less if larger o Goal of 70% suitable habitat o Connectivity max of 20 mile nearest neighbor distance o Identify options for establishing ‘permanency’ 8:00 AM Wrap-up of day one and unfinished business 8:30 AM Habitat evaluation AM Review of OK LPC plan approach, Jon Haufler o OK HSI model Team recommendations o Three-part model—Action item Pitman, Haufler, and Hagen— ESD state transition model CRP included as state NRCS WHEG and veg protocol Consider varying detail levels for landowner monitoring vs. mitigation Post-hoc classification of results like HSI model o Include ecoregional components? o Draft to LPCIWG Science team by October 2 and discuss at fall LPCIWG meeting in late Oct. o Draft to UFWS Section 10 for review (same time?)—FWS science team members will take the draft to Sec 10 staff o Landowner documentation document (visual resources and training materials for implementation)—Later on Developing criteria to estimate habitat loss Options OK plan approach—Jon Haufler o Define and discuss anthropogenic threats, use threats from OK spatial planning tool FWS project deconstruction table/report o Intention was transparency o Deconstruct development into individual components o Assess effects of components o Define avoidance, minimization and mitigation/offset recommendations o WEWAG may have thought it was “too transparent” Sage grouse noise impact assessment and abatement/offset process for wind energy development o Was not included in the federal wind guidelines and was not popular with industry o Hunt 2004 MS thesis—LPCs in NM o UC Davis Sage Grouse work Habitat loss research needs o Noise avoidance o Avoidance of vertical structures o Time-lag effects o Density thresholds o Dave Haukos—Lit review o Dwayne Elmore—Worldwide grouse/disturbance review paper o Sutton Center bibliography on the web Transmission conservation framework (HCP?) in KS—Region 6, Amelia Orton-Palmer- lead o Chris and David – lead on contacting and coordinating towards a range-wide approach o Doodle poll by Sept 7—Action Item—Chris O’Melia Mitigation committee--IWG will designate members and establish meeting timelines and goals Director/oil and gas meeting—Sept. 5—IWG circle back with individual oil and gas associations Great Plains Wind HCP plan to WEWAG for review by Sept 1213—For review by IWG by Oct. 1To science team LPCIWG Science Team Webinar Notes 11/19/2012 Attending: Sean Kyle, Jim Pitman, Anne Bartuszevige, Grant Beauprez, Lyman McDonald, Blake Grisham, Christian Hagen, Allison Arnold, Chris O’Meilia, Dan Mulhern, Mike Disney, Jon Haufler, Dave Haukos, Doug Schoeling, Heather Whitlaw, Aron Flanders, David Klute Review and Background Jim Pitman and Sean Kyle provided a review of previous Science Team decisions: o Population goals o Guidelines and definitions for Habitat Focal Areas (HFAs) o Connectivity Zones o Review of upcoming deadlines for the range-wide plan effort Sean Kyle noted the timelines required for making decisions, the limitations of the data to make those decisions, and highlighted the importance of ensuring that the adaptive management process was a part of the range-wide management plan to continue to inform these decisions. Reproductive Season Dates Jim Pitman requested Science Team input on defining range-wide dates to encompass the bulk of lekking, nesting and brooding chronology March 1-July 15 was put forth as the dates that FWS and NRCS had agreed upon in the NRCS Conferencing Report. Concerns were raised by Allison Arnold and others about how these dates would be applied. DECISION—The team agreed upon March 1-July 15 with the conditions that: o These dates defined the majority of the lekking, nesting, and brooding seasons o These dates could constitute the basis for measures directed at minimization of impacts, but could not guarantee the complete avoidance of impacts. Guidelines for Connectivity Zones Jim Pitman requested Science Team input on defining guidelines for Connectivity Zones (CZs)and reviewed a draft set of guidelines Sean Kyle brought up the fact that 25% of the population goals must be accounted for outside of HFAs, so definitions of CZs should be based on more than just requirements for a corridor. They should be able to support resident birds in some cases. Don Wolf said that percentages and arrangement of suitable habitat constituted only part of the equation, but vertical structures within that CZ would also determine success. But he also stated that we would be unlikely to be able to designate CZs without power lines and other vertical structures. David Klute stated that “connectivity” should be defined in terms of goals and timeframes, but also stated that not all connectivity zones could be considered equal or even meet the same goals. Anne Bartuszevige noted that the OK spatial planning tool used the Core-Buffer habitat of the PLJV Core/Core-Buffer model which utilized 40% suitable habitat Christian Hagen brought up the possibility of using the MaxEnt Lek and Nest propbability maps to define CZs DECISION—The Science Team agreed to the following 5 guidelines for CZs 1. CZs should be defined on a site specific basis with a desired maximum of 20 miles in length and a desired minimum of 5 miles in width. 2. Where possible use the MaxEnt probability Layers to define the location of CZs to encompass areas with the most existing suitable habitats 3. Desired goal of 40% suitable, high quality habitat within CZs 4. Habitat juxtaposition within CZs should be considered within management efforts to ensure connectivity across that zone 5. CZ should be designated to minimize existing vertical structures and attempts should be made to minimize the development of new structures within those CZ wherever possible. Setback Distances Sean Kyle, Jim Pitman and Christian Hagen Reviewed the methodology used in the proposed approach and the data gaps Sean Kyle reviewed the possible options for binned verses fixed setback distances including the biological relevancy and potential complexity of applying binned distances. Allison Arnold raised concerns about how these setback distances might be applied, and the group decided that it would be better to see the metrics system before making decisions on specific setback distances. Habitat Quality and Impact Metric System Jim Pitman and Christian Hagen reviewed the use of the NRCS WHEG within the LEPC Initiative Jim Pitman worked the Science Team through an example of the HIAG for defining habitat quality, impacts and credit generation. Lesser Prairie-chicken Science Team Webinar Friday, December 7 2012 Attendees: Jon Haufler Jim Pitman Dave Klute Dan Mulhern Lyman McDonald Blake Grisham Dave Haukos Christian Hagen Aron Flanders Chris O’Melia Heather Whitlaw Anne Bartusevidge Dwayne Elmore AGENDA 1. Presentation illustrating how the frameworks will be used to estimate impacts and credits 2. Discussion and decision about the way in which impact buffers will be applied (binned vs. fixed buffers) Binned vs fixed distances --- Discussion of advantages and disadvantages of the two approaches Decision: Use Binned buffers, until better information becomes available Use 3 bins with 33% decrease in each further concentric ring Buffer distances: Decision: (until better information becomes available) 300 m O&G (pump jacks, well heads) 1000 m wind 600 m electric transmission 200 m electrical distribution 1000 m vertical structures (need to consider size of vertical structures) 100 m gravel roads 750 m paved roads 1000 m commercial buildings (including compressor stations) 200 m residential buildings Action Item: Need to develop description of what types and sizes of structures qualify in each category 3. Discussion and decisions about specific HIAG questions 1. What distance should be used for the broad scale habitat assessments (questions 1 & 5)? Currently assessed at a one mile radius from center of evaluation unit. Decision: until better information is available we will use a one-mile radius from the center of the evaluation unit 2. Should points be awarded for planting and/or managing non-native grasses (questions 12 &13)? Planting non-natives Decision: Award zero points for planting non-native grasses Managing non-native grasses: Decision: Provide minimal points for management of non-native grasses 3. Should chemical treatment of planted native grasses (e.g. CRP) be an approved management practice (question 13)? Decision: No chemical treatment allowed for planted native grasses, except for treatment of invasive species. Action item: Need to develop list of invasive species 4. Should chemical application be an approved management practice to treat dense stands of shinnery and/or sand sagebrush (question 10)? Decision: No credits for chemical treatment of sandsage Allow credits for shinnery treatments. Action item: Need to develop specifications for chemicals, location, percent cover. Lower the point total from 7 to 5 for shinnery treatment 5. Should management practices be required to receive points for conservation easements? How? Decision: Conservation easements are required to have a management plan aimed at increasing or maintaining benefits for LEPC which is developed by a natural resource professional in order to receive points for the easement. LPCIWC Science Team Conference Call Notes--01/16/2013 Attending: Jim Pitman, Sean Kyle, Allison Arnold, Dave Klute, Dan Mulhern, Aron Flanders, Chris O’Meilia, Jon Haufler, Allan Janus, Grant Beauprez, Doug Schoeling, Blake Grisham, Dave Haukos, Christian Hagen, Don Wolf, Lyman McDonald 1. Review of HIAG modifications: Removed points for chemical treatment of sand sage Added points for grass maintenance Added points for chemical treatment of noxious and invasive, o Dave H suggested changing the language on #13 to noxious, invasive or non-native o Lyman suggested that not all non-natives are bad. Jim and Jon said they are working on a draft list of species. Added new impact weighting for large tracts of land under long term agreements Removed easement language in favor of long-term vs short term markets o Permanent = 30-100 years easements and management o Short term = 5-30 years of management o Initial credits awarded at signing would be based on percentage of 100 years related to agreement duration times base credits o Initial thoughts are 25% of required off-sets go into the 30-100 year market 2. Population/Habitat Goals Proposed population changes summarized in excel spreadsheet based on Garton and Hagen o Haukos thinks some of the extreme data points are driving the analysis and this analysis may not adequately represent what has happened historically. o Christian clarified that some of those extreme numbers are routes not leks and hence represent much more area o Haukos thinks that density dependence and environmental conditions are confounded in these data. o Haukos thinks that we should be cautious in making decisions based on this manuscript until we can drill down into it deeper. o Science team will provide detailed comments on the document. Christian will establish a timeline for comments. o No problems voiced with using these population goals as a draft. Revised poulation goals and densities that were approved o Shinnery 6500-NM, 1500-TX, 4 birds per square mile is fine o Sand Sage CO-3k, KS-7k, 5 birds per sq. mile is fine o Short grass-25,000 birds, 9 birds per sp. mile is fi ne o Mixed grass-KS:14k@9, TX:5k@5, OK:5k@5 o Chris suggested we revisit the population variability in relation to meeting our goals Interstate Working Group-Science Team call March 13, 2013 Jim Pitman, Sean Kyle, Blake Grisham, Anne Bartesavige, Doug Schoeling, Bob McCready, Allison Arnold, Jon Haufler, Aaron Flanders, Dave Haukos, Dave Klute, Christian Hagen, Chris O’meila Metrics Discussion 1. Veg. cover, veg. quality, species composition 2. Removal of ESDs as weighting 3. How to sell to lanowners? a. Base management plan b. Grass management plan c. Sign-up incentives-site conditions 4. LT credits a. Easements b. Endowments 5. What % of contracts for different practices? 6. Cost estimates are just examples a. Actual amounts will be determined later 7. Allison concerns a. Does not like the temporary nature of contracts i. Annual payments won’t work b. Industry pays for impacts c. System based on implementations and not outcomes i. Explain how it would be done annually d. *note-Allison left the call early 8. Payments are reflective of costs 9. HIAG annually or every 3-5 years? 10. Veg. sampling will show improvement before credits are increased 11. Compliance monitoring a. Update prescriptions 12. Need to switch to fixed buffers for simplicity? a. 100% loss at fixed distance b. Fixed buffers? i. Simpler ii. Complete impact vs. partial iii. Everyone on ST is ok with fixed buffers c. Are distances appropriate?-YES d. Mitigation rates i. Are they too high? ii. Big penalty for development in focal areas iii. 20cents on the dollar? e. Get road info from DOTs i. Traffic lands f. Sean-some values too high g. Will stick with buffers we have