Department of Economics
Syllabus for Economics 325
Introduction to Inferential Forecasting
Spring Quarter 2013
Time: M – F, 10:00 – 10:50
Instructor: Thomas Tenerelli
Office: Shaw-Smyser 425
Location: Shaw-Smyser 106
E-mail: tenerelt@cwu.edu
Phone: 509-963-3420
Office Hours: M, W– F, 12 – 12:50, Tu 1 – 2 and other times by appointment.
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Course Description
An introduction to methods employed in business and econometric forecasting. Topics
include time series modeling, Box-Jenkins models, and seasonal adjustments. Covers data
collection methods, graphing, model building, model interpretation and presentation of
results.
Statement of Purpose
The purpose of this course is to give you a good basic understanding of forecasting,
particularly for use in business applications. In this course you will learn about how to
forecast data using various techniques. You will also learn how to utilize Excel and Excel
based Forecast X software to help you forecast.
Course Objectives / Outcomes
By the end of the course, the student should be able to:
 Develop critical thinking skills.
 Forecast data series using various techniques.
 Analyze and forecast data using Excel and Excel based Forecast X software.
Instructor Goals
 Build lasting professional value and personal decision making skills by inducing long
term retention of the course concepts and developing personal success skills.
 Have regular problem sets with solutions given, and spend ample time in class going
over solutions, to make studying more efficient and help you prepare for exams.
 Create a tight link between the material covered in the class and exam questions to
reward you for your effort spent studying.
 Maximize long term retention of the course material by stressing depth of
understanding, encouraging active learning (thinking in class) rather than passive
listening, and re-emphasizing core concepts throughout the quarter.
 Foster a respectful and interactive learning environment where students’ questions,
opinions, and concerns are valued and encouraged.
 Stress themes running through the course that teach students to think “outside of the
box” and which allow the students to better understand and retain the most important
course concepts so that they can apply these concepts in their personal and professional
lives or in later courses.
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Tailor the class to the students by utilizing feedback from them to ensure that their
understanding is sufficient before moving on to the next topic. Feedback is obtained
by strongly encouraging questions and by assessing student understanding from one
minute essays (or clickers), class polls, and personal discussions.
Make myself available to students.
Provide supporting materials to help students succeed in learning including lecture
notes and handouts which provide detail on important class concepts.
Remain flexible and open minded to the needs and preferences of the students, while
maintaining high standards for effort and integrity.
Course Materials - Required
 Text: Business Forecasting, Sixth Edition (2009) by J. Holton Wilson & Barry
Keating.
o Note: The text comes with accompanying Excel-based Forecast X software which
will be used throughout the course.
 TurningPoint Clickers
Course Requirements
 Examinations: There will be 3 in class midterm examinations and an in class final
exam.
 Homework: There will be regular problem sets.
Course Grading
Homework:
Three Midterm Exams:
Comprehensive Final Exam:
10%
20% each, for a total of 60%
30%
Grading Scale
A-, A:
B-, B, B+:
C-, C, C+:
D-, D, D+:
90 – 100%
80 – 89.9%
70 – 79.9%
60 – 69.9%
Consistent class attendance, active participation in class discussion that results in
meaningful and substantive contributions, and strict adherence to the Statement of
Professional Conduct (see below) will be considered in borderline grade cases.
Late / Missed Assignment Policy
Students who miss an exam for unavoidable and verifiable reasons will be given a makeup
exam. Late problem sets will get a 25% reduction in score.
Course Communication
You will receive regular reminders and announcement via email. If you are not receiving
email reminders and announcements, please update your email address with me.
Course Website
 There is a link to the course website at my home page: http://www.cwu.edu/~tenerelt/
Suggested Study Technique
It is strongly suggested that students study together in study groups to expedite and
facilitate learning.
Expectations
You are expected to come to class each day having done the reading relating to the
material covered that day. You should consider bringing your text to the course, as it will
often be referred to during lecture. Your homework for each chapter will typically be
collected the day following the completion of the class presentation of the chapter.
Tentative Course Outline
 Introduction
 The Forecast Process, Data Considerations, and Model Selection
 Moving Averages & Exponential Smoothing
 Time-Series Decomposition
 Introduction to Forecasting with Regression Methods
 Forecasting with Multiple Regression
 If time permits: ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) Type Forecasting Models
Dates:
 May 27: Memorial Day
 May 31: Last day of instruction
 June 5 (Wednesday) 8 am – 10 am: Final Exam (You Must Confirm)
Excel
Throughout your tenure in the College of Business, you will be required to complete
various assignments using Microsoft Excel. It is incumbent upon you to have or acquire
the skills required to complete these excel-based assignments. If you do not possess the
required skills, the College of Business requires that you purchase Slaying Excel Dragons
by Mike Girvin (publisher Holy Macro! Books). Additional help can be found at
excelisfun.com. Advanced tutorial materials are also accessible on the CWU Wildcat
Connection through the Microsoft IT Academy link.
Statement of Professional Conduct
 Students are expected to behave in a professional manner in this class consistent with
(1) the goal of creating an effective learning environment for all and (2) the standards
of professionalism in corporate America. Students are expected to follow the College
of Business “Statement of Conduct” and “Code of Honor” listed below. Students are
expected to not engage in behavior which is distracting to other students or the
professor, and to not engage in behavior which contributes towards a negative
classroom atmosphere. Although such behavior can result in expulsion from the class,
the real purpose of these expectations is to make you aware of some common
professional standards for business meetings, and to create the most effective learning
environment. Examples of unacceptable behavior include, but are not limited to:
voluntary audible noises (including talking when not called upon and loud yawns and
sighs), rude and disrespectful behavior, entering the classroom after the class period
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has begun, leaving the classroom before the class period has ended (except for
emergencies), visible or audible displays of impatience or boredom, the use of
computers for anything other than note-taking, condescending behavior (including eye
rolling and other related gestures), passing notes, insulting remarks or behavior,
playing games, giggling or laughing about another person or a private joke, the use of
the internet without permission, and public derogatory comments about other students
in the class, the professor, or the class. (Special exceptions will be considered on a
case by case basis.) When in doubt, apply the Golden Rule to both your classmates
and the professor. You should expect the same from your classmates and the
professor.
Students are not allowed to leave the classroom during exams (before you are finished)
without being excused. In addition, during an exam, no more than one student may
leave the room at a time. Exceptions will be granted in emergencies. Violation will
result in a failing grade on the exam.
Students caught looking at another student’s exam / quiz during an exam / quiz, or
engaging in any form of cheating on any test or assignment, will receive an F grade on
the exam / quiz / assignment, and may receive an F in the class.
College of Business Statement of Conduct
 The College of Business is a learning community committed to a set of core values
based on integrity, respect and responsibility that guide our interactions.
 Integrity: the quality of possessing and steadfastly adhering to high moral principles or
professional standards
Members of our community are expected to act with integrity and honesty. These
qualities are essential in providing a basis for trust, and are at the foundation of what
molds the character of business professionals.
 Respect: to show consideration or thoughtfulness in relation to others
Our community respects the right of all people to express their ideas, beliefs, and
opinions. Our relationships are based on mutual respect for one another, and
differences of opinion are discussed openly and civilly. These discussions will focus on
the issues, rather than attacking either party, and are presented in a courteous manner.
We are sensitive to the impacts of both our words and actions on others.
 Responsibility: the state, fact, or position of being accountable and responsible
We accept responsibility for our actions and the consequences resulting from them. We
understand and expect those around us to hold us accountable for our dealings and
behavior. We deliver on the commitments and promises we make to others.
College of Business Code of Honor
 As College of Business students we pledge to uphold these standards of
professionalism and conduct ourselves in accordance with them. We will not lie, cheat,
or steal, and will not tolerate those who do. Our behavior defines who we are and what
we will become.
Students with Disabilities
Students with disabilities who wish to set up academic adjustments in this class should
give me a copy of their “Confirmation of Eligibility for Academic Adjustments” from the
Disability Support Services Office as soon as possible so we can meet to discuss how the
approved adjustments will be implemented in this class. Students with disabilities without
this form should contact the Disability Support Services Office, Bouillon 205, or
dssrecept@cwu.edu, or 963-2171, immediately.
Caveat
The above schedule and procedures in this course are subject to change in the event of
circumstances beyond the instructor’s control.