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Career Project: Fashion Forecasting
Issra Killawi
Intro to Merchandising
3 December 2015
Career Project: Fashion Forecasting
People often view fashion as a product of inspiration and ingenuity that happens way
outside of themselves - by people with an exclusive skillset. But actually, fashion is a
culmination of various factors, many in which the target customer plays a central role. In fact,
any trend forecaster would agree that the design process begins much before the drawing board.
The aesthetic manifestations of clothing are expressions of what is happening around the people
who wear those clothes. And in a world that is so vast and so constantly changing, it is a difficult
task to take these abstract changes and interpret them into fashion trends. This is the job of a
fashion forecaster.
In a nutshell, fashion forecasters are people who are paid to be on the lookout for
“clothing and lifestyle changes that could bring about changes in fashion trends” (CFNC.org).
Forecasters consider factors such as the economy, consumer behavior, popular music, lifestyle
trends, shifts in cultural ideology, psychology, and so much more. As large and abstract as these
concepts sound, they play pivotal roles in influencing the way that people adorn and express
themselves. Forecasters scout the people and places that can be both influential and inspirational
for the future of design. They also document the changes and trends of the past, and look to
history for evidence of what might happen in the future. Trend forecasters do their research
across many disciplines, watching for the things that could point to a need or desire to change the
way in which we dress, as well as how those changes will manifest into fashion trends.
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Career Project: Fashion Forecasting
To put things into perspective, consider the recent fitness craze; people now place more
value in being active, looking fit, and wearing the right gear to do so. With this lifestyle shift
comes a change in clothing: activewear and knitwear become more prominent than structured
silhouettes, and a whole new category is born: athleisure. Jeans may have been people’s casual
go-to several years ago, but today, yogas and sweats fulfill that role. Taking this trend a step
further, forecasters might predict that people want versatile pieces which easily transition
between their different daily occupations. What can people wear straight from yoga to the office,
without compromising comfort or professionalism? What textiles and fibers will be needed to
create such clothing? How can such a trend be interpreted for differing markets? For example,
career women who dress in business suits will not switch to wearing yoga pants because of the
trend - but designers may incorporate knits, stretch, and more relaxed fits into the styles that
these women will usually wear. Not only do trend forecasters find evidence for and predict
change, but they also have to understand how specific markets can interpret these fashion trends
in order to maintain their brand image and sell to their target customers.
Like many professions, fashion forecasting has evolved tremendously. David Wolfe,
head of the Doneger Group forecasting agency in Manhattan, says that forty years ago the job
was more of a form of foreign correspondence (Zimmerman, 2008). Trend spotters of the time
scouted the streets of Europe and reported back with the latest styles, from which American
designers would take inspiration. While traveling to fashion capitals is still an essential part of
the job, Fashion forecasters today have a lot more to consider. For one thing, fashion is no longer
a cookie-cutter industry and designers have begun to realize that street fashion is an influential
force to be reckoned with (Blair, 2003). Market analysis across a variety of sectors plays a
significant role in the predictions of what will sell, who will buy, and what price they will pay.
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Career Project: Fashion Forecasting
The use of computers and the internet have really sped up the pace at which information can be
found and shared, therefore speeding up the process of research for forecasters. The emergence
of social media has even allowed forecasters to tap into niche markets and follow, day by day,
the lives of their target customers; Instagram, Facebook, popular blogs, and all types of social
networking have made this possible. These changes have also made the industry all the more
fast-paced and competitive, as companies and designers race to be in-the-know about what is to
come in the fashion scene. The more and the earlier that a trend forecaster knows, the faster their
designers can put ideas into production. Timing in the fashion industry is crucial.
Another change that has greatly impacted fashion forecasting is the development of trend
forecasting services (Sherman, 2011). In the past, most companies were equipped with an inhouse trend forecasting team. Today, forecasting giants like Stylesight, PromoStyl, and WSGN
offer subscription-based forecasting services to companies and designers through easy-to-use
virtual interfaces and research on every market out there. Aspiring fashion forecasters can work
for such companies, work as private consultants, or even work for retailers within in-house
forecasting for private label merchandise development. Unlike other career paths, fashion
forecasting does not have much of a hierarchy, as the position usually fits under a broader
division such as product development (Dimitrieski, 2015). However, more experience allows a
forecaster’s credibility to grow, therefore also growing their value as hire. Starting trend
forecasters are paid about $20,000, while a forecaster with seven to ten years under their belt can
be paid between $100,000 and $200,000 (Sahadi, 2005). As mentioned earlier, social media has
only made the field more competitive, giving more people access to the fashion scene. As of
2008, there were only between 750-1000 fashion forecasting positions in the U.S. (Sahadi).
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Career Project: Fashion Forecasting
So what exactly does it take to become a fashion forecaster, and what does the job
encompass? In terms of educational background, it is tremendously helpful to have a background
in design, business, or related fields. However, because the fashion industry is impacted by so
many factors outside of fashion, people with various backgrounds exist in the field. Take, for
example, Jayne Mountford, a fashion forecaster with a background in social anthropology who
uses what she knows about “tribes” to analyze the behavior of consumer groups (Parker, 2013).
Beyond education, many say that the skill of trend-spotting is an intuitive one; you either have it
- or you don’t. But there are many design and merchandising programs today that offer courses
that train students the art of fashion forecasting. Valentina Dimitrieski, a lecturer in the Design
and Merchandising program at Wayne State University, teaches a course on product
development and forecasting. Fifteen years in the industry give her a lot to say about what it
takes to be a fashion forecaster. Having thick skin and the ability to stand your ground, being a
“people person,” and having a fresh and forward outlook on things - according to Dimitrieski,
that’s what it takes to be a successful forecaster. She also says that being proficient in programs
like Adobe Photoshop and Illustrator, having an internship, as well as the ability to sketch, are all
vital.
Dimitrieski worked as a product developer for K-mart, but little did she know that at least
forty percent of her job would consist of fashion forecasting. In designing private label clothing
for K-mart, her experience offers great insight for those who want to know what it means to be a
forecaster on a day-to-day basis. First of all, Dimitrieski stressed how important it is to know
your target customer and what they will buy (It is important to note that there is a lot of research
involved). So to design a winter wear collection, she traveled to New York to do some trendspotting on the streets and in exclusive trade shows. Dimitrieski then took what she observed and
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Career Project: Fashion Forecasting
with her target market in mind, developed designs that incorporated those trends. Working under
a corporation like K-mart meant that she had to present her designs to buyers who would choose
what they felt their customers were most likely to buy. After some negotiation, the agreed-upon
designs were those that made it to the store floor.
Designers might wonder: as a designer, how much room is there for your own ingenuity
when incorporating trends and interpreting them for product development? There is no right
answer, really. Some designers choose to ignore trend forecasts completely, and are still
successful. Others will work under the limitations that their brand images, target market, or
bosses set. Ideally, the balance is to create something that is in style, meets the customer’s taste,
and therefore sells, and it goes without saying that to do this is no easy task to accomplish. The
job of a fashion forecaster is a unique and intriguing one, as it touches upon a world much larger
than the one in photo shoots and clothing racks. I chose to learn more about fashion forecasting
because I am particularly interested in what fashion represents, as medium, in a constantly
changing world. The “why” behind a trend offers a depth of knowledge that is communicated in
the way we choose to dress. In the words of David Wolfe, “You have to understand the world if
you are going to understand what people want to wear” (Zimmerman).
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Career Project: Fashion Forecasting
Works Cited
Blair, E. (2003, September 17). Forecasting Fashion Trends. Retrieved November 27, 2015.
CFNC.org - Career Profile. (2011). Retrieved November 26, 2015.
Dimitrieski, V. (2015, December 2). Fashion Forecasting: What is it? [Telephone interview].
Parker, L. (2013, August 6). 10 Minutes With... Jayne Mountford, Accessories Magazine and
Accessories Directions Trend Director - Accessories Magazine. Retrieved November 25,
2015.
Sahadi, J. (2005, January 7). Trend forecasting: Knowing when sky-blue pink'll be red hot.
Retrieved November 20, 2015.
Sherman, L. (2011, May 31). Want To Be A Trend Forecaster When You Grow Up? Stylesight
Might Be Your Ticket. Retrieved December 1, 2015
Zimmerman, E. (2008, May 10). Roaming the World, Detecting Fashion. Retrieved November
29, 2015.