Systems thinking white boarding animation project:
Systems theory: All encompassing general theory; human, a clock… deterministic system – can
determine the outcome. Inputs and outputs converted through a process…can optimize the
system. Critical path tasks. Optimize the process through experience and experiment. Identify
barriers. Tools help the process go forward. Design the system for max manageability and value
– regulate the system and control each step. Use feedback and feed forward loops. Regulate the
input and process for the desired output. Have tools for multiple uses…, which are,
compromised…hammer and screwdriver…Systems structure – stable parameter of the
system…incentive to optimize the process for maximum value. Every system has structures –
but they impose limitation on the process…fixed walls/cabinets etc…. structures of the system
limit it’s capacity…3 distinct levels of optimization:
1) Optimization within the structure, systems management = regulating the process
2) Optimization of the system structures, systems design = rearranging or replacing the
tolls
3) Optimization of the contact global system design = integrating with fellow citizens
(supply of water)
You can control some systems more than others which guides us more to focus on factors which
are significant and within our sphere of influence
powerfulmethods.com
Applying Complexity Science for Organization Development
Eli Sopow – You tube http://youtu.be/g13IDarbR_4
Complex adaptive systems…biology of the world we live in. Create the conditions for the wheat
to grow.
Chaos theory – the smallest change to a large formula (mathematical) could change the end
result – sensitive dependence on initial conditions = one thing that changes in your whole pattern
of behavior could change the outcome…
The butterfly affect – tiniest thing could change the end result. Can a butterfly in South America
flap wings and cause a thunderstorm in Texas
“The relationship between cause and effect reveals a system’s complexity and appropriate
actions….if no relationship you are in chaos…
Complexity theory
Good enough vision– complexity says it is impossible to predict in the future what you are going
to be like in an organization that is constantly changing.
Minimum specification - Start off with broad goals – don’t carve in stone be prepared to adapt as
things change around you – allowing for creativity…out of that comes –
Self-organization –
Wicked questions – the elephant in the room….ask the wicked question that is on everyone’s
mind
Shadow systems – org systems is how we do things everyday –but most orgs don’t work that
way…. shadow system is how orgs actually get work done…ask about shadow systems…or do
they do their work a better way…move what’s in the shadows into the lights.
Emergence comes from complex adaptive systems where you get people together with a good
enough vision and they self organization….and come up with emergent ideas.
Complexity theory looks at re-rowing the organization…
Traditional org chart…
Complexity org chart looks like intertwined circles…. emergent interconnectivity…you have to
see how people interconnect, cooperate and how they work together – the president doesn’t
necessarily have all the power.
Interrelated groups of people, interrelated issues…working together to achieve a solution
Bio-leadership:
 Guiding not decreeing
 Empathizing before advancing
 Understand the inside before demanding from the outside
 Wage peace not war
 Weave networks not cut ties
 Channeling not damning opinion = We don’t like your opinion….so we put a rock as far
as opinion – what happens – put a rock in a fast flowing stream…what happens the water
flows faster around it
Corporate personality disorder…his book
US marine core - Like a living organism a military organization is never in a state of stable
equilibrium instead it is in a continuous state of flux continually adjusting to it’s
surroundings…command and control is not so much about one part of the org getting control of
the other about something that connects all elements together in a cooperative fashion.
Appreciating you can’t have all the answers – good enough planning can work – also that the
role of the people within the org is hugely important
There is liberation saying that no one has the answer…
Deal with your anxiety – good enough rather than prescriptive brings the people together.
Applying Design Thinking and Complexity Theory in Agile Organizations – You Tube
What you predict doesn’t come true…what worked yesterday doesn’t seem to be working
today…and if what you don’t know is unknown…you have to be prepared to explore
Analysis and induction alone cannot manage complexity.
Deductive – when we declare or define a rule….induction – declaring a result given the
information we have with Abductive logic – we see a case of what might be true – but that’s as
close as we can get….multiple possible explanations…
Abductive logic – creates a larger space of what might be true…
Gaussian curve…. probability of something happening – pays attention to the probable
Complexity theory – black swan – we cannot see the low probability high impact events of this
world
Pareto of plausibility….
Plausible vs probable
Unordered vs ordered
David Snowden – Cynefin (pronounced Keneven)
Birthday Party for 11year olds – based on the nature of systems
 Chaotic System – children acting at random
 Order Systems – construct learning objectives,,,aligned with mission statement,,,pictures
of eagles soaring over valleys,,,project plan,,,milestones,,measured outcomes…senior
adult shows motivational DVD, then use powerpoint…milestone targets…linking earning
pocket money
 Complexity Systems Approach– draw a line in the sand and make the boundary…cross
that you little XYZ….and you die – value of flexible, negotiable boundaries – because
rigid boundaries have a habit of being brittle and breaking catastrophically
o Use catalytic probes - something that stimulates the value (football, BBQ,,,etc)
that will stimulate a pattern of activity which is called an attractor
 Beneficial attractor - stabilize and amplify
 Negative – dampen or destroy fairly quickly
o So what we do is manage the emergence of beneficial coherence within attractors,
within attractors, within boundaries…
Plausible
Probable
Complex
(only coherent in retrospect,
and not repeatable)
Complicated
(requires analysis
or expertise)
Disorder
Chaotic
(not perceivable)
Unordered
Simple
(Obvious & repeatable)
Ordered
In complexity we can’t know everything – try finding out how we could move forward with
fluidity…
Resilience vs robustness – too costly for something to fail…design failure out of the sytem…in
the world of complexity ASSUME failure – safe fail…not robustness….assume there is failure
and design in resilience….
Design thinking – a balance of exploration with exploitation…. Mystery, heuristics, algorithm
Balance searching and shipping…
Focused on feature delivery vs exploration…then we aren’t recognizing how complex
our world is..
Complexity theory invites a sense of exploration…
Bring empathy and wonder into your mystery and hunches
Change by design – brings in technology, business and human values together…
The virtual crash course playbook…
Inspiration ideation and implementation – think about music…
Low fidelity prototypes….create things out of popsicle sticks…be prepared to throw them away
Camp and the tent….
Three practices:
Future Backwards
Current state
Turning points backwards from Current state
Heaven
Hell
Turning points backwards from heaven
Turning points backwards from hell
Check in to the accidents on the hell or heaven pathway
Empathize and innovate - time = 50:23
Empathy interviewing – what works for them or what doesn’t work
Read the interviews and write down what people are: thinking, saying, doing and
feeling
Create personas to create possible points of view (Structure Sally, Involved Ivan,
Distibuted Dan) – emerging into empathy, Possible points of view…each persona
wants or needs something different (needs of the people)
Then figure out how we can respond to each of the personas
Then final problem statement – this is the number one problem…
Seek the wildly unexpected
dschool.stanford.edu/dgift/#gear-up
The dreams I think are dying are the best I’ve ever had…..video