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DPI-452
RESTLESS EMPIRE
The Past, Present, and Future
of
Chinese Power
Fall 2015
Tuesday and Thursday, 2:45-4:00
L332
Professor Arne Westad
ST Lee Professor of US-Asia Relations
124 Mt. Auburn - Suite 200N-256
Email: Arne_Westad@hks.harvard.edu
Office hours: Tuesday, 10am-12pm
Course assistant: Iza Ding
Email: izading@gmail.com
Faculty assistant: Lia Tjahjana
124 Mt. Auburn - Suite 200N-217G
Email: Lia_Tjahjana@hks.harvard.edu
At the beginning of the 21st century, China is moving ever closer to
the center of international affairs. This course traces the country’s
complex foreign relations over the past 250 years, identifying the
forces that will determine its path in the decades to come. Since
the height of the Qing Empire in the 18th century, China’s
confrontation with foreign powers have caused its world view to
fluctuate between feelings of dominance and subjugation,
emulation and defiance. From the invasion of Burma in the 1760s
to the Boxer Rebellion in the early 20th century and the rivalry with
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the United States in eastern Asia today, many of these encounters
have left the Chinese with a sense of humiliation and resentment,
and have inflamed their notions of justice, hierarchy, and China’s
regional centrality. This course is essential for anyone wishing to
understand the recent past and probable future of this dynamic
and complex country.
Course overview
1. Introduction: Why is China important?
The power of the past
2. The origins of the Chinese state
3. China and its region
4. The Chinese Communist Party
5. China’s age of reform
Chinese power today
6. The sources of economic growth
7. China’s military power
8. China’s foreign policy
9. The domestic variables
The future of Chinese power
10. Three scenarios for China’s future
11. China’s future economies
12. China in Asia
13. The United States and China
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Course readings
The readings for the course can be accessed through Canvas.
The following books are useful as general overviews, and it is
recommended that students read them in full:
 Westad, Odd Arne. Restless Empire: China and the World since
1750. New York: Basic, 2012
 Shambaugh, David L. China Goes Global: The Partial Power.
Oxford: Oxford UP, 2013
 Christensen, Thomas J. The China Challenge: Shaping the
Choices of a Rising Power. New York: W.W Norton, 2015
Assignments and grading
There are two assignments for this class.
The first is a group exercise. Depending on the number of
students in the class, we will form small groups who will work on
policy problems connected with China’s rise. The output will
generally have two forms. There will be a 10-minute briefing for the
whole class, followed by discussion. In your briefing, you may use
no more than four slides. The group will also prepare, for the
instructor, a two-page memo (1.5 line-spaced) that summarizes
and highlights the points made in the briefing. The memo is due
on the day of the presentation.
Presentation dates:
 Group 1 (October 8): What are China's main economic
challenges today?
 Group 2 (October 15): If war between China and the United
States broke out tomorrow, what could China hope to achieve
militarily?
 Group 3 (October 22): Who make the decisions in Chinese
foreign policy?
 Group 4 (October 29): What is most important for Sichuan's
future?
 Group 5 (November 5): Which of the three scenarios for
China's future do you think is most probable?
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The second assignment is an individually written six-page
policy brief that outlines, analyzes, and makes a policy
recommendation for a particular problem related to China’s current
foreign policy. This may be written for the Chinese government or
for a foreign government (including that of the United States). This
paper is due December 1.
The group exercise will count for one-third of the grade and the
individual memo two-thirds but class participation will be taken into
account when assessing the final grade for the course.
All written work for this course must be appropriately referenced.
Students seeking guidance regarding proper citation and academic
honesty should refer to the Harvard Kennedy School Academic
Code. If you still have questions as to whether or not you have
used citation properly, please speak with the instructors before
turning in your written assignment.
The course may be audited, but only with written permission from
the instructor. Harvard students from outside HKS may register for
this course, with written permission, if space and time-tabling
allows for it.
Overview of individual sessions and mandatory reading
Week 1 (September 3)
Lecture: Why is China important?
Within less than a generation, China has moved from the periphery
of the international system to its center. It is likely that the country
will be a dominant power in the 21st century and beyond. But
China is not only important because of its geo-political weight. It is
also essential because of its cultural and political significance for
the larger eastern Asian region.
Reading:
1. Westad, Odd Arne. Restless Empire: China and the World
since 1750. New York: Basic Books, 2012. pp. 1-17
2. Jacques, Martin. When China Rules the World: The End of
the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order. 2nd
ed. London: Penguin, 2009. pp. 1-28
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3. Allison, Graham, Blackwill, R., and Wyne, A., Lee Kuan Yew:
The Grand Master’s Insights on China, the United States,
and the World. MIT Press, 2013. pp. 1-18
The power of the past
Week 2 (September 8 and 10)
Lecture: The origins of the Chinese state
Chinese culture originates in three great epochs: Han, Tang, and
Song. Knowing a bit about them is important for understanding
China today.
Seminar: The classics of Chinese strategy
Reading:
1. Schwartz, Benjamin I. China and Other Matters. Cambridge,
Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1996. pp. 114-124
2. Three Strategies of Huang Shigong, pp. 277-306; Sun Zi: Art
of War, 145-186; Questions and Replies between Tang
Taizong and Li Weigong, pp. 307-360. Sawyer, Ralph D. The
Seven Military Classics of Ancient China = Wu Jing Qi Shu.
Boulder: Westview Press, 1993.
3. Confucius: Analects (excerpt)
Week 3 (September 15 and 17)
Lecture: China and its region
China is at the core of a vast region, stretching from the Ural
Mountains and the Caspian Sea to the Pacific and Indian oceans.
China’s place within its region was defined during the Qing Empire,
which ruled China from the early 17th to the early 20th century.
Seminar: Chinese world orders
Reading:
1. Westad, Odd Arne. Restless Empire: China and the World
since 1750. New York: Basic Books, 2012. ch 1 & 2
2. Rowe, William T. China's Last Empire the Great Qing.
Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press of Harvard University
Press, 2009. pp. 63-89
3. Elliott, Mark C. Emperor Qianlong: Son of Heaven, Man of
the World. New York: Pearson Longman, 2009. pp. 125-142
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4. Wang Fuzhi. "Historical Trends." Sources of Chinese
Tradition. Vol. 2 (2nd ed). New York: Columbia University
Press, 2000.
5. Yi Hangno. "Sinify the Western Barbarians." Edited excerpt
from Sourcebook of Korean Civilization. New York, NY:
Columbia University Press, 1997. pp158-159
Week 4 (September 22 and 24)
Lecture: The Chinese Communist Party
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was formed in the early 20th
century and took power in 1949. Mao Zedong led the CCP for
forty years, and his thinking created some of the fundamentals for
Chinese world views today.
Seminar: The CCP in power
Reading:
1. Westad, Odd Arne. Restless Empire: China and the World
since 1750. New York: Basic Books, 2012. Ch 8 & 9.
2. Mao Zedong. “Report on an Investigation of the Peasant
Movement in Hunan.” March 1927
3. Discussion between N. S. Khrushchev and Mao Zedong,
October 02, 1959, History and Public Policy Program Digital
Archive, Volkogonov Collection, Wilson Center.
Week 5 (September 29 and October 1)
Lecture: China’s age of reform
Mao Zedong’s rule united the country, but failed in terms of
economic development. After Mao’s death in 1976, the new leader
Deng Xiaoping opened up for the transformation of the Chinese
economy from a state-led to a market-led form of production and
enterprise. It was the greatest economic transformation the world
has ever seen.
Seminar: How did China break through?
Reading:
1. Westad, Odd Arne. “The Great Transformation: China in the
Long 1970s.” Ferguson, Niall, et al, eds., The Shock of the
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Global: The 1970s in Perspective. Choice Reviews Online,
2011.
2. Vogel, Ezra. Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of
China. The Belknap Press Harvard University Press, 2011.
pp. 217-248
3. Köll, Elisabeth. The Rong Family: A Chinese Business
History. Harvard Business School case. 2010.
4. CCP Politburo Standing Committee Meeting transcript, 6
June 1989, from Tiananmen Papers. New York: Public
Affairs, 2001. pp. 420-425
Chinese power today
Week 6 (October 6 and 8)
Lecture: The sources of economic growth
For thirty years (from 1980 to 2010) the Chinese economy
continued to grow very rapidly, in what amounts to the biggest
economic and social revolution of modern times. What were the
main causes of this growth? What role did the Chinese state play
in it? And what kind of economy does China have today?
Seminar: Does China have a capitalist economy?
Reading:
1. Nee, Victor and Opper, Sonja. Capitalism from Below.
Harvard University Press, 2012. pp. 41-71
2. Steinfeld, Edward. Playing Our Game: Why China’s
Economic Rise Doesn’t Threaten the West. Oxford University
Press, 2010. pp. 1-19
3. Westad, Odd Arne. Restless Empire: China and the World
since 1750. New York: Basic Books, 2012. Ch 10.
4. Osnos, Evan. Age of Ambition: Chasing Fortune, Truth, and
Faith in the New China. New York: Farrar, Straus and
Giroux, 2014. pp. 60-75
Week 7 (October 13 and 15)
Lecture: China’s military power
In 1979 fought an inconclusive war against its former ally Vietnam.
The results of the war convinced the Chinese leadership that its
military was backward and broken. Since then, China has
expanded its military power in a revolutionary manner, spending
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more percentage-wise on building its capabilities than any other
major power. Still, most experts argue that China’s military reach
is far inferior to that of the United States, even in Asia.
Seminar: Can China challenge US power in eastern Asia?
Reading:
1. Shambaugh, David. China Goes Global: The Partial Power.
Oxford University Press, 2013. pp. 269-306
2. Chase, Michael S. et al. China’s Incomplete Military
Transformation: Assessing the Weaknesses of the People’s
Liberation Army (PLA). Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2015.
3. Haddick, Robert. Fire on the Water: China, America, and the
Future of the Pacific. Annapolis: Naval Institute Press, 2014.
pp. 77-100
Week 8 (October 20 and 22)
Lecture: China’s foreign policy today
As its power has grown, China’s involvement in international affairs
has also expanded. The country today defines its interests as
being global, even though its active policies are main reserved for
its own region. Meanwhile, many experts claim that Chinese
national security decisionmaking is under-developed for the
purposes it is supposed to serve.
Seminar: Who decides China’s foreign policy?
Reading:
1. Wang Jisi. China’s Search for a Grand Strategy: A Rising
Great Power Finds its Way. Journal of Foreign Affairs,
March/April, 2011. pp1-12
2. Buzan, Barry. “The Logic and Contradictions of ‘Peaceful
Rise/ Development’ as China’s Grand Strategy”. The
Chinese Journal of International Politics, 2014. pp 381-420.
3. Yan Xuetong, “From Keeping a Low Profile to Striving for
Achievement,” The Chinese Journal of International Politics,
2014. pp 153-84.
4. Shambaugh, David. China Goes Global: The Partial Power.
Oxford University Press, 2013. pp. 45-120.
Week 9 (October 27 and 29)
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Lecture: The domestic variables
Over the past generation China has moved from a tightly
controlled Leninist dictatorship to a much more open society,
which the Communist Party struggles to keep control over. A
number of key commentators argue that China’s main problems
are domestic, and that many of them are connected with poor
governance. In addition, the CCP’s policies for controlling ethnic
minorities seem to have failed.
Seminar: The key challenges of one Chinese province
Reading:
1. Central Committee of the Communist Party of China’s
General Office. “Document 9: Communiqué on the Current
State of the Ideological Sphere,” 2013.
2. Pew Research Report. “Environmental Concerns on the Rise
in China.” September 19, 2013.
3. McGregor, Richard. The Party: The Secret World of China’s
Communist Rulers. Harper Collins, 2010. pp. 1-33
4. Greve, Louisa. “The Troubled Periphery: China at the
Tipping Point?” Journal of Democracy, vol. 24, no. 1 (2013):
73–78.
The future of Chinese power
Week 10 (November 3 and 5)
Lecture: Three scenarios for China’s future
While China’s power has grown significantly over the past
generation, it is not given that its growth will continue. But it is also
possible that we under-estimate China’s potential for growth and,
especially, its proclivity for change.
What are conceivable
scenarios for China’s future over the next twenty years?
Seminar: The coming collapse of China?
Reading:
1. Acharya, Amitav. “Power Shift or Paradigm Shift? China’s
Rise and Asia’s Emerging Security Order.” International
Studies Quarterly 58, no. 1 (March 1, 2014): 158–73.
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2. Beardson, Timothy. Stumbling Giant: The Threats to China’s
Future. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2014,
pp. 398-435.
3. Quah, Danny. The Simple Arithmetic of China’s Growth
Slowdown. The Brooking Institution, February 18, 2015.
Week 11 (November 10 and 12)
Lecture: China’s future economies
China today is first and foremost an economic power. How is its
economy likely to develop? Is China today facing a middle-income
trap? How will demographic change influence China’s growth?
And what about regional variations within China itself?
Seminar: China 2030
Reading:
1. China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative
Society. The World Bank, 2013.
2. Davis, Bob. “The End of China’s Economic Miracle?” Wall
Street Journal, November 21, 2014.
3. Fan, Shenggen et al., eds. The Oxford Companion to the
Economics of China. Articles by Cox, Simon; Fogel, Robert
W. / Grotte, Nathaniel; Perkins, Dwight. pp. 59-74.
Week 12 (November 17 and 19)
Lecture: China in Asia
Over the next decade, China’s main orientation in terms of foreign
policy objectives will be towards its own region. This means
mainly east and southeast Asia, but also Russia and India. What
is the potential for conflict or integration in China’s relationship with
its neighbors?
Seminar: When North Korea Collapses
Reading:
1. Westad, Odd Arne. “In Asia, Ill Will Runs Deep.” The New
York Times, January 6, 2013.
2. White, Hugh. “Is China Making a Big Mistake about Japan?”
The Interpreter. August 13, 2014.
3. Bennett, Bruce W. Preparing for the Possibility of a North
Korean Collapse. Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2013.
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4. Kaplan, Robert D. Asia’s Cauldron: The South China Sea
and the End of a Stable Pacific. Random House, 2014. pp.
32-50
5. Mendoza, Ronald U. et al., “Revealed Comparative
Advantage, International Production Chain and the Evolving
ASEAN-China Trade Linkages.” Journal of Asian
Development Study. Vol. 4 (1), March 2015.
Week 13 (November 24 and December 1)
Lecture: The United States and China
The United States, in Chinese, is MeiGuo, or ‘the beautiful
country’. And Americans admire Chinese industriousness and skill
over those of all other nations. The economies of the two
countries are today closely linked. But Chinese and US policies
towards each other have fluctuated wildly in the past and are likely
to do so in the future. What is the most likely scenario for US
China policy ten years from now?
Seminar: US policy towards China – a briefing for the new
president
Reading:
1. Shi Yinhong, “The United States, East Asia, and Chinese
‘Triumphalism’’, in Lee, Y. W. and Son, K. eds., China’s Rise
and Regional Integration in East Asia: Hegemony or
Community?. Routledge, 2014. pp 40-53.
2. Mearsheimer, John. “The Gathering Storm: China’s
Challenge to US Power in Asia.” The Chinese Journal of
International Politics 3, no. 4 (December 21, 2010): 381–96.
3. Rudd, Kevin. US-China 21: The Future of US-China
Relations under Xi Jinping. Belfer Center, 2015.
4. Blackwill, Robert D. and Tellis, Ashley J. “Revising US Grand
Strategy toward China.” Council Special Report No. 72. New
York: Council on Foreign Relations, 2015.
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