Market Report
Andover
Andover – Fax
01264 358011
01264 361233
E-Mail paul.roberts@abagri.com
25th July 11
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Soya – The main focus for the market is the weather. The US has experienced extreme heat which is
causing the crop severe stress, although forecasts through the week kept a lid on prices as they called for
cooler and wetter weather. The most important month for the Soya crop is August, however the current
temps will cause a loss of acres and yields in a year where there is little room in the S&D for this. Ongoing
forecasts will be watched very closely by the market. The other major factor on demand is China and they
have said that bean imports will fall over the next 2 years, with the largest drop in 2011. The government
also said that they plan to sell 4mmt of reserves in return for a lift on the cap on vegoil prices (but at the
moment this is only rumour). Are the Chinese playing a game though, given they have lower domestic
bean crops, an increasing population, and higher demand to feed pigs!! The cynics would argue it is all
part of the game and we wonder if prices drop then we would we suddenly see buying from the Chinese. I
think most of us know the answer. We still maintain at current levels it is worth looking at taking cover
going forward and for more information please speak to your sales specialist or Jeremy Strutt on 01264
320804.
Rape meal – Like Soya one of the main focuses for the market is the weather (and you thought it was only
the British who are obsessed by the weather!). Heat and storms in Canada have reportedly damaged the
crop, China is forecast to have a lower Rapeseed crop, but on a positive note the early yield indications
from the UK Rapeseed crop have been encouraging. With the maintenance at Erith now completely
finished, hopefully it will mean we shall get through the winter with no breakdowns!! The demand for
nearby Rape is still proving sluggish and as a result Rape prices have eased meaning it is back looking
competitive against Soya. For more information please contact your sales specialist or Jeremy Strutt on
01264 320804.
Energies/Fibres – No prizes for guessing the main driver of the Corn market at the moment, yes the
weather. The extreme heat in the US has caused a drop in the ratings to the lowest in 4 years (and
remember this in a year when we need a good crop), with Europe getting the most favourable conditions.
So why has the Corn price stayed unchanged over the last week? First of all there are still very big
concerns over the Greek economy (when/will they go bust) and the difficulty the US seem to have in
agreeing a deal for their debt ceiling (just as we thought they had sorted it over the weekend, that now
looks unlikely). The debt situation is causing the market to be risk adverse thus keeping out of
commodities. The latest ethanol figures have shown that there has been a slowdown in demand below
market expectations and cooler weather in the forecast (although far from guaranteed). However, the
fundamentals still point to a bullish market but the overriding factor keeping a lid on prices currently is the
debt/economy worries around the world. Well the weather is also playing its part in the Wheat market
with many parts seeing drier warmer weather apart from South Brazil which saw flooding! The Australian
weather bureau has forecast ave/below rainfall for the next 3 months. Russia is still taking all the export
tenders possible (up to $43 per tonne cheaper than French) but they don’t look like they will get any
cheaper. Wheat is still trading below Corn, meaning it is replacing Corn in many rations. So where do we
go from here? Like all the markets the debt issues around the globe are weighing heavily as is the
weather. Until we see more yield reports on harvests and the debt issues start to subside it is a very
difficult market to call, which will probably take its lead from Corn. As with most of the other markets
energy and fibre products have remained largely unchanged, although off take remains brisk. For more
information and prices please contact your sales specialist or Paul Roberts on 01264 320801.
Ex Port Guide Prices – Prices are subject to change
Jul-Oct
133
190
192
Rape
156
163
Wheatfeed
142
140
Currency
£/$ 1.6326
£/€ 1.1351
The information contained within this report is given in good faith and without liability. Any opinions expressed are
subject to change without notice
East Anglia
280
Southampton
London
148
Teignmouth
145
Portbury
Soya Hulls
East Anglia
154
Southampton
173
187
283
London
EU DDG 34PF
Citrus pulp
pellets
280
Teignmouth
129
Portbury
285
East Anglia
286
Asa May-Oct
Southampton
London
283
Teignmouth
281
Portbury
East Anglia
125
281
Southampton
PKs
London
278
Teignmouth
Portbury
Hi pro
Nov-Apr