Student Name:Carlos Murphy___________________
Student ID:_4597699_______________________
Directions:
The following templates should be used to enter the information for Steps 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 8 (Step 7 will be reported in an
essay). Please download and save a copy of this matrix on your computer.
**Note: Grades for Step One will be entered directly into the gradebook.
ACH Step One: Identify Possible Scenario Outcomes (Hypotheses)
Number
Hypothesis #1
Hypothesis #2
Hypothesis #3
Hypothesis #4
Hypothesis
Chiang Kai-shek and the KMT party lead a force of over 600,000 men to force Mao Tse Tung and CCP
into the interior of the country. A demilitarized zone is established and the country is divided into an
Eastern communist governed region and a democratic industrial Western region.
Chiang Kai-shek and the KMT party lead a force of over 600,000 men to force Mao Tse Tung and CCP
into the interior of the country, reducing their numbers significantly. With numbers reduced the CCP
dissolves.
The KMT fight the Soviet supported CCP and are defeated by Soviet air supremacy. 5 Soviet Union Air
Squadrons of Sukhoi fighter planes destroy all of both KMT and the CCP’s air power and seize control of
all Chinese territory.
Civil war ends in a stalemate and the country is split in to two halves. The communist side and the
Democratic side.
Hypothesis #5
Points Possible
Points Earned
**Note: Grades for ACH Steps 2-6 will be entered directly into the gradebook.
ACH Step Two: Evidence For and Evidence Against Each Hypothesis
ACH Steps Three and Four: Assess Evidence for “Diagnosticity” and Eliminate Evidence
ACH Steps Five and Six: (5) Eliminate Hypotheses” and (6) Identify Linchpin Evidence
Hypothesis 
 Evidence
Delete
Linchpin
 (H1a) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will be resolved
diplomatically.
 Evidence #1
Chiang Hai shek over whelms the CCP and maintains power
 Evidence #2
General Marshall stays to broker a treaty with the KMT and the CCP
 Evidence #3
USSR supports CCP then forces the CCP to USSR
Hypothesis 
 Evidence
Delete
Linchpin
 (H1b) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will not be resolved
diplomatically.
 Evidence #1
General Marshall leaves immediately causing instability
 Evidence #2
Chiang kai Shek is overweheled by CCP
 Evidence #3
USSR does not support CCP and U.S. supports KMT
Hypothesis 
 Evidence
(H1)
Political
Solution
(H2)
Limited.
Intervention
(H3)
Direct
Attack
_
+
_
+
_
-
-
-
+
(H1)
Political
Solution
(H2)
Limited.
Intervention
(H3)
Direct
Attack
+
+
-
-
-
+
-
+
-
Delete
Linchpin
 (H2a) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will be resolved with
limited intervention.
(H1)
Political
Solution
(H2)
Limited.
Intervention
(H3)
Direct
Attack
Delete
Linchpin
 (H2b) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will not be resolved with
limited intervention.
(H1)
Political
Solution
(H2)
Limited.
Intervention
(H3)
Direct
Attack
Delete
Linchpin
 (H3a) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will be resolved with a
direct attack.
(H1)
Political
Solution
(H2)
Limited.
Intervention
(H3)
Direct
Attack
Delete
Linchpin
 (H3b) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will not be resolved with
a direct attack.
(H1)
Political
Solution
(H2)
Limited.
Intervention
(H3)
Direct
Attack
 Evidence #1
 Evidence #2
 Evidence #3
Hypothesis 
 Evidence
 Evidence #1
 Evidence #2
 Evidence #3
Hypothesis 
 Evidence
 Evidence #1
 Evidence #2
 Evidence #3
Hypothesis 
 Evidence
 Evidence #1
 Evidence #2
 Evidence #3
Points Possible
Points Earned
**Note: Step 7 is a six page narrative essay that ranks the three hypotheses from most likely to occur to the least likely to occur.
The instructions document for the Step 7 assignment can be downloaded from the Week 6 lesson in your course.
**Note: Grades for Step Eight will be entered directly into the gradebook.
Week 8 - ACH Step Eight: Develop Indicators
Add Hypothesis Here
Hypothesis:
Indicator
Description
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#8
#10
Timeliness
Were the indicators submitted on time (points subtracted)?
Possible
Earned
100