Sustainability July 2013
AS has been widely publicised it has recently been announced by the Scripps Institution of
Oceanography that the world is about to reach a scientific milestone when levels of carbon
dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere reach 400 parts per million. According to many scientists
the consequences of CO2 remaining at this level are frightening. Have all of our projects to
reduce our carbon footprints been a waste of time or should we now redouble efforts and
embark on new initiatives? The debate over increases in atmospheric CO2 levels and
associated global warming is full of complexity and strong differences in opinion. This is
partly because the scientific data is often too complex to be comprehended by anyone other
than specialists in the advanced study of climate. The facts that are presented are also open to
interpretation and to some fairly visceral political prejudice on all sides. Views range from
total belief in the culpability of humans for global warming to a complete denial that there is
even an issue. It may then be helpful to review some to the facts that are not disputed so that
we can at least form some sort of balanced view as to the way forward in the design and
manufacture of flooring.
The Keeling Curve in the illustration shows levels of atmospheric CO2 which have been
measured over 50 years at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii. The relentlessly upward
trend towards 400 ppm is clear.
Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are caused by a number of factors. Each year
the concentration of CO2 rises and drops with changes in the seasons. This is due to most of
Earth's vegetation being found above the equator. During the summer when plant life thrives
the concentration drops as the plants "inhale" the CO2 and photosynthesises the sun's energy
to create glucose for growth. The oxygen that we need for life is "exhaled" by the plants as
part of this process. In the autumn as the vegetation dies and decomposes some of the
sequestered CO2 is released back into the atmosphere. While the majority of plant life is
dormant during the winter, processes such as animal and plant decay and volcanic activity
then build up atmospheric CO2 levels until springtime when the cycle restarts. As with most
natural cycles the balance in the equation is wondrous but is also precarious and may be
thrown into imbalance by external forces some of which are out of human control. The result
of an excess of CO2 and other gases such as methane in the atmosphere is to trap heat which
gives rise to the greenhouse effect and to a gradual increase in the planet's surface
temperature.
One measurable impact of higher temperatures include increases in sea level caused by
expansion of the water as the extra heat is transferred from the atmosphere and also the
melting of polar ice which is running into hundreds of billions of tonnes a year. According to
some scientists such as those at Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, sea levels are
currently rising at a rate of around 3.2 mm per year with some predictions that this could rise
to 22.5 mm per year over the course of the next century. This is higher than predicted by
sophisticated mathematical models used to calculate the complex and constant changes in the
earth's crust, mantle and core. Some scientists have extrapolated these results to predict an
increase in climactic disasters such as floods, super storms and crop failures with human
consequences of biblical proportions. The recent unprecedented damage caused by Hurricane
Sandy is cited as a harbinger of things to come. However this view is not universally
accepted and emotions run high on the issues.
It is accepted that the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, natural gas and oil to produce
energy now results in the emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere at levels which
have tipped the natural balance of annual CO2 flux leading to the observed build up to 400
ppm. Humans are now said to produce between 3 and 6% of all carbon dioxide emissions
and this is more than 130 times greater than the amount released by volcanic eruptions.
Major deforestation of areas such as the Amazon is not helpful in this regard although it does
bring important economic benefits to local communities.
Projects to plant significant
numbers of new trees around the world are therefore highly popular.
It seems fair to conclude that any additional CO2 in the atmosphere which is created by
human activity, and which is likely to cause global catastrophe must be dealt with. If then, as
has been said, 400 parts per million CO2 represents a dangerous level what then is a safe
level? One high profile US group appropriately named "350.org" - has concluded that we
will only be safe if we are able to maintain levels at 350 parts per million and has been urging
universities to divest themselves of their multimillion investments in fossil fuel companies as
a means to put climate change firmly back on the agenda of the US Congress.
However there are scholarly organisations such as the Cato Institute who say that the figure
of 400 ppm CO2 is to be celebrated rather than a cause of consternation. They accept that the
burning of fossil fuels has been responsible for the build up in CO2 levels. However it is
their view that the increase in CO2 levels and higher surface temperatures have increased
global foliage and the efficiency of the photosynthesis process. They argue that the fossil
fuel age has seen unprecedented improvements in prosperity and health with a doubling of
the average life span around the world. They accept that reserves of traditional sources of
power are being depleted at an unsustainable rate however they point to increased availability
of recoverable fossil fuel sources such as natural gas from new technologies such as hydraulic
fracturing (fracking) which may be able to meet centuries of energy demand. (This is of
particular relevance to me as I am literally sitting above the biggest shale gas reserve in the
UK and have just witnessed the first sizeable protest against the activity.) They believe that
the potential negative effects of the rise in surface temperatures have been overstated and are
alarmist. It is their belief that the principles of free trade should prevail over government
interference which they say will put at risk the world's best hope of ending world poverty.
Meanwhile regardless of who is right the manufacture of flooring requires significant energy
which is in mostly generated from the old fossil fuel sources. This is expensive and
unsustainable in the long run. Under the 2008 Climate Change Act the government has set
the world's first legally binding climate change target with the aim us to reduce reliance on
imported fossil fuels and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050. This is an
enormous challenge. In addition we are required to demonstrate a commitment to greening
our act generally in order to compete commercially and to satisfy increasing concerns from
investors over these issues. Significant change in energy sources for manufacturing is
required. We will doubtless see more energy from renewable sources feeding the National
Grid but wind farms are unloved by many and solar power remains costly to install and
requires large areas and lots of uninterrupted sunshine to be effective. The latter will require
a real change in the UK weather if recent experience is anything to go by!