The Little Ice Age
1. Read an Analyze the scenario
The little ice age started in the 14th century and lasted until the 19th century. During this
time the temperatures decreased and many rivers and seas froze over. We are given
evidence of the cold through paintings where they show the lakes frozen over in areas
where today, the lakes do not freeze over. I am sure that if we looked at novels from that
time we would also be able to find evidence of the little ice age.
In the scenario, some possible causes of the little ice age are mentioned. They include
lower sunspot activity, enhanced volcanic activity, changes in Earth’s thermohaline
circulation (Younger Dryas Event), and changes in orbit around the sun associated with
Milankovitch cycles.
There are two possible inquiry strategies to choose from. In the first the International
Commission on Economics (ICE) wants us to research where they should invest funds to
grow crops where the climate is more likely to be stable. This would entail looking at
past climate records of the areas and also where the greatest portion of the worlds crops
are grown. We would need to combine the two by hypothesizing what should happen to
these areas based on past climate records, and predictions for what could be happening in
cycles such as sunspots, oceanic cycles, and also rotation around the sun cycles.
The second scenario deals with the International Olympic Committee (IOC), they are
asking for information on different possible locations where the Olympics could be held.
Many different areas around the globe would have to be analyzed based on their past and
current climate trends. They do not specify whether they are looking for information on
the summer or winter Olympics so both would have to be researched. We would have to
analyze different parts of the globe and look into what cycles have influenced their
weather in the past, and may again in the future.
2. List your personal understanding, ideas, or hunches
- My ideas of causes are similar to those mentioned in the scenario.
- Lower sunspot activity would cause a cooling of the earth, however we cannot
determine if at the beginning there was less sunspots since the recording of them did
not start until the 1600’s.
- Enhanced volcanic activity could cause a decrease in the earth’s temperature, but the
scenario doesn’t mention whether the increased activity was in the areas affected or in
all areas. If the volcanic eruptions took place in areas that were affected than I would
guess that it contributed to the ice age, but if the volcanic eruptions took place all
over and in areas not affected it is less likely to be a contributing factor.
- Water currents could also affect the temperatures of the water and on land.
3. List what is known
- There was an area of increased volcanic activity which can cool the earth because of
decreased sunlight.
4. List what is unknown
- When did the little ice age end, the scenario says there is disagreement about when it
actually ended but most think in the 19th century. And the estimates for when it began
range from the mid-12th to the early 14th century. Why is there this disagreement
about when they began?
- Since the recording of sunspot activity did not start until the 1600’s we cannot know
what the sunspot activity was like back then. However we can see how long the
oscillations are for sunspot activity and make a prediction.
- Were there water currents that changed so the temperature of the water changed?
- Scenario mentions the northern hemisphere, mainly Europe but what was happening
in the rest of the world?
- Why did the volcano activity increase during this period?
5. List what needs to be done
- Research why there is a disagreement on start of little ice age
- How long are the oscillations of sunspots
- Which volcanoes erupted and where, were these near the areas heavily affected by the
ice age?
- Was there another region that had high volcanic activity that did not result in extreme
cooling?
- Research what water currents and whether they were altered during this time
6. Develop a problem statement
ICE scenario – We are trying to analyze where funds should go for producing the worlds
crops based on past and current climate records. We will be using the little ice age as a
model for researching this issue.
IOC scenario – We are trying to analyze where the Olympics should be held in future
years based on a locations past and current climate records. Research will be performed
to see whether locations will have the necessary climate for the Olympics to be held.