58434 קבלת החלטות במדיניות חוץ - המחלקה ליחסים בין

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‫‪ 43585‬קבלת החלטות במדיניות חוץ‪ :‬היחיד‪ ,‬הקבוצה והארגון‬
‫פרופ' יעקב ורצברגר‬
‫תשע"ג ‪ ,2102-01‬סמינר שנתי‪ 2 ,‬ש"ש‪ 4 ,‬נ"ז‬
‫עיתוי‪ :‬יום ד'‪18:00-16:30 ,‬‬
‫מקום הסמינר‪ :‬חדר ‪ ,1212‬חברה‬
‫שעות קבלה‪ :‬יום ב'‪ 3100 03:11-03:11 ,‬חברה‪.‬‬
‫טלפון במשרד‪3551045 :‬‬
‫הסמינר יתמקד בתהליכי קבלת החלטות במדיניות חוץ ובהערכת איכותן‪ ,‬תוך הדגשת הייחוד של מדיניות‬
‫חוץ בהשוואה לנושאים אחרים‪ .‬הדיונים ייסובו סביב שלושה צירים‪ :‬מאפייני ההחלטות עצמן‪ ,‬מאפייני‬
‫מקבלי ההחלטות – היחיד‪ ,‬הקבוצה והארגון – והשפעות הגומלין ביניהם‪ .‬הכוונה היא לאפשר לסטודנטים‬
‫להכיר באמצעות הרצאות‪ ,‬דיון ועבודה עצמית‪ ,‬עד כמה מורכב התהליך ומה רבות המכשלות הפוטנציאליות‬
‫העומדות בפני הגורמים המקבלים החלטות‪ .‬הצורה בה מאורגן הסמינר נועדה להבטיח איזון הולם בין‬
‫למידה עצ מית‪ ,‬למידה מודרכת ולמידה קולקטיבית‪ ,‬תוך אינטראקציה עם אחרים‪ .‬לאור זאת‪ ,‬חייבים‬
‫המשתתפים בקריאה שוטפת משיעור לשיעור‪ ,‬השתתפות בדיונים כפי שיידרש‪ ,‬והתמחות בנושא אמפירי‬
‫מוגדר שישמש בסיס לעבודה סמינריונית ולדיון בתקפות התיאוריות והגישות השונות על בסיס השוואתי‪.‬‬
‫הדבר כולל ‪ 2-1‬הרצאות קצרות של הסטודנטים על היבטים שונים של העבודה הסמינריונית‪ ,‬תאריכים‬
‫שיקבעו מראש‪.‬‬
‫חומר הקריאה‪:‬‬
‫סדרי העדיפויות בקריאת הביבליוגרפיה מצוינים בגוף הרשימה כדלקמן‪:‬‬
‫** חיוני לקרוא‬
‫* חשוב לקרוא‬
‫מאמרים וספרים אחרים המופיעים ברשימה מומלצים בלבד‪ ,‬והוצגו כדי לאפשר העשרת ידע שתתרום‬
‫לכתיבת עבודה סמינריונית איכותית‪.‬‬
‫הרכב הציון‪:‬‬
‫‪ 11%‬השתתפות פעילה (ההשתתפות בסמינר מחייבת נוכחות מלאה בשיעורים)‬
‫‪ 01%‬עבודה סמינריונית‬
‫‪ ‬אי הצגת רפרט כתוצאה מהיעדרות או אי‪-‬מוכנות‪ ,‬ללא תיאום מראש עם המרצה‪ ,‬דינה ביטול‬
‫השתתפות התלמיד‪/‬ה בסמינר‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬מועד אחרון להגשת העבודה‪ 11 :‬בספטמבר ‪ .2013‬הגשת עבודה באיחור תותר לפי הכללים‬
‫והאישורים הנדרשים בתקנון הפקולטה‪.‬‬
2
‫ קבלת החלטות במדיניות חוץ‬35414
‫מאפייני סביבת ההחלטה‬
** Vertzberger, Y.Y.I. (1990) The World in Their Minds. Stanford, CA: Stanford University
Press, pp. 21-35.
Dowes, R.M. (1988) Rational Choice in an Uncertain World. San Diego, CA: Harcourt
Brace Jovanovich, Ch. 2.
Nezias, J.M and Starbuck, W. (2008) “Decision Making With Inaccurate, Unreliable
Data”. In Hodgkinson G.P. and Starbuck, W.H. (eds.) The Oxford Handbook of
Organizational Decision Making, Oxford: Oxford University press, ch.4
** Brady, L. (1978) “The Situation and Foreign Policy," in East, M.A., Salmore, S.A. &
Hermann, C.F. (eds.), Why Nations Act. Beverly Hills: Sage, Ch. 9.
* Sprout, H. & Sprout, M. (1969) "Environmental Factors in the Study of International
Politics," in Rosenau, J.N. (ed.), International Politics and Foreign Policy (revised
edition). New York: The Free Press, pp. 41-56.
Goertz, G. (1994) Contexts of International Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University
Press, Ch. 2.
* Brecher, M., Steinberg, B. & Stein, J. (1969) "A Framework for Research on Foreign
Policy Behavior," Journal of Conflict Resolution, 13: 75-101.
Payne, J.W., Bettman, J.R. & Johnson, E.J. (1993) The Adaptive Decision-Maker.
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Ch. 2.
Vertzberger, Y.Y.I. (1998) Risk Taking and Decisionmaking, Stanford, CA: Stanford
University Press, Ch. 2.
Fingar, T. (2011) Reducing Uncertainty, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, Chs.
1,3.
‫רמת הניתוח ואיתור מוקדי ההחלטה‬
** Jervis, R. (1976) Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton:
Princeton University Press, Ch. 1.
Larson, D.W. (1985) Origins of Containment, Princeton: Princeton: University Press, pp.
18-23.
Braybrooke, D. & Lindblom, C.E. (1969) "Types of Decision-Making," in Rosenau, J.N.
(ed.), International Politics and Foreign Policy (revised edition). New York: The Free
Press, pp. 207-216.
* Hermann, M.G. & Hermann, C.F. (1989) "Who Makes Foreign Policy Decisions and
How: An Empirical Inquiry, International Studies Quarterly, 33: 361-388.
3
‫ קבלת החלטות במדיניות חוץ‬35414
Hermann, M.G. & Hermann, C.F. & Hagan, J.D. (1987) "How Decision Units Shape
Foreign Policy Behavior," in Hermann, C.F., Kegley, C.W. & Rosnau, J.N. (eds.), New
Directions in the Study of Foreign Policy. Boston: Unwin Hyman, Ch. 16.
** Hermann, M.G. (2001) "How Decision Units Shape Foreign Policy: A Theoretical
Framework," International Studies Review, 3(2): 47-81.
Einhorn, H.J. & Hogarth, R.M. (1988) "Behavioral Decision Theory: Processes of
Judgment and Choice," in Bell, D.E., Raiffa, H. & Tversky, A. (eds.), DecisionMaking. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Ch. 6.
Onuf, N. (1995) "Levels," European Journal of International Relations, 1: 35-58.
Mintz, A. and De Rouen, K. (2010) Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making, New
York: Cambridge University Press, Ch. 2
‫היחיד כמקבל החלטות‬
:‫ היבטים קוגניטיביים‬.‫א‬
** Holsti, O.R. (1976) "Foreign Policy Decision-Makers Viewed Cognitively,” in Axelrod,
R.A. (ed.), Structure of Decision. Princeton: Princeton University Press, Ch. 2.
Vertzberger, Y.Y.I. (1990) The World in Their Minds, pp. 35-48.
Tetlock, P. & McGuire, C. (1986) "Cognitive Perspectives on Foreign Policy," in Long, S.
(ed.), Political Behavior Annual, Vol. 1. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, pp. 255-273.
Steinbruner, J.D. (1974) The Cybernetic Theory of Decision, Princeton: Princeton
University Press, Ch. 4.
Walker, S.G. (1990) "The Evolution of Operational Code Analysis,” Political
Psychology, 11: 403-418.
** George, A.L. (1980) Presidential Decisionmaking in Foreign Policy. Boulder: Westview
Press, Chs. 2 & 3.
Farnham, B. (1990) "Political Cognition and Decision-Making," Political Psychology, 11:
83-111.
* Jervis, (1976) Perception and Misperception in International Politics, pp. 117-128, 172195.
Gardner, H. (1997) Leading Minds. London: Harper & Collins, Ch. 3.
Lipshitz, R. & Strauss, O. (1997) “Coping with Uncertainty: A Naturalistic DecisionMaking Analysis,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision-Making, 69: 149-163.
4
‫ קבלת החלטות במדיניות חוץ‬35414
Sarbin, T.R. (1998) “Believed-In Imaginings: A Narrative Approach,” in de Rivera, J. &
Sarbin, T.R. (eds.), Believed-In Imaginings, Washington, D.C.: American Psychological
Association, pp. 15-30.
Byrne, R.M.J. (2005) The Rational Imagination, Cambridge,Mass.: The MIT Press, Chs
1,5,6.
* Eidelson, R.J. and Eidelson J.I. (2003) "Dangerous Ideas: Five Beliefs that Propel Groups
Towards Conflict", American Psychologist, 58:182-192.
:‫ היבטים וצרכים רגשיים‬.‫ב‬
** Steinberg, B. (1991) "Shame and Humiliation in the Cuban Missile Crisis: A
Psychoanalytic Perspective," Political Psychology, 12: 653-690.
* Volkan, V.D. (1988) The Need to Have Enemies and Allies. Northvale: Jason Aronson,
Chs. 7, 12 & 16.
Jervis, (1976) Perception and Misperception in International Politics, Ch. 10.
Janis, I.L. & Mann, L. (1977) Decision-Making. New York: The Free Press, Chs. 3 & 4.
(‫)הספר תורגם לעברית‬
* Marcus, G.E. (2000) “Emotions in Politics,” in Polsby, N.W. (ed.), Annual Review of
Political Science, Vol. 3, Palo Alto, CA: Annual Reviews, pp. 221-250.
Fiske, S.T. & Taylor, S.E. (1991) Social Cognition, 2nd edition. New York: McGraw
Hill, pp. 201-229.
Mann, L. (1992) "Stress, Affect and Risk Taking," in Yates, J.F. (ed.) Risk Taking
Behavior. Chichester, Eng.: John Wiley & Sons.
* Isbell et al. (2008) "Affect and Politics: Effects on Judgment, Processing and Information
Seeking" in Redlawsk, D. P. (ed.) Feeling Politics, New York, NY: Pallgrave, Ch. 5.
Parkinson, B., Tottedell, P., Briner, R.B. & Reynolds, S. (1996) Changing Moods: The
Psychology of Mood and Mood Regulation. London: Longman.
3 ‫ פרק‬,‫ הוצאת מטר‬:‫ תל אביב‬,‫) גם לכם לא היו מים חמים‬2101( .‫ י‬,‫יסעור‬
:‫ תכונות אישיות‬.‫ג‬
Mischel, W. (1977) "The Interaction of Person and Situation," in Magnusson, D. &
Endler, N.S. (eds.), Personality at the Crossroads. Hillsdale: Erlbaum, pp. 333-352.
** Hermann, M.G. (1978) "Effects of Personal Characteristics of Political Leaders on
Foreign Policy," in East et al., Why Nations Act, pp. 49-68.
5
‫ קבלת החלטות במדיניות חוץ‬35414
** Greenstein, F. (1975) Personality and Politics. New York: W.W. Norton, Ch. 2.
Etheredge, L.S. (1978) "Personality Effects on American Foreign Policy,” American
Political Science Review, 72: 434-451.
Willner, A.R. (1984) The Spellbinders. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, Ch. 1.
Kellerman, B. (2004) Bad Leadership, Boston, MA: Harvard Business School, pp. 29-48.
Winter, D. (1992) "Personality and Foreign Policy: Historical Overview of Research," in
Singer, E. & Hudson, V. (eds.), Political Psychology and Foreign Policy. Boulder, CO:
Westview Press, Ch. 4.
* Ozer, D.J. & Reise, S.P. (1994) "Personality Assessment," Annual Review of Psychology,
45: 357-368.
Kaarbo, J. (1997) “Prime Minister Leadership Styles in Foreign Policy DecisionMaking: A Framework for Research,” Political Psychology, 18: 553-582.
Cottam, M.L., et al., (2010) Introduction To Pplitical Psychology (2nd edition), New
York: Psychology Press, Ch. 5
* Mondak, J.J. (2010) Personality and Foundations of Political Behavior, Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press, Ch.3.
* Munsford, M.D, Scott, G., and Hunter, S.T. (2006) " Theory – Charismatic, Ideological
and Pragmatic Leaders: How Do They Lead, Why Do They Lead, and Who Do They
Lead?" In Munsford, M.D. (ed.) Pathways To Outstanding Leadership, Mahawa, NJ:
Lawrence Eresaum Associates, pp. 25-50.
Byman, D.L. & Pollack, K.M. (2001). “Let Us Now Praise Great Men: Bringing the
Statesmen Back In,” International Security, 25(4): 107-146.
Post, J.N. (2004) Leaders and Their Followers in a Dangerous World, Ithaca, NY:
Cornell University Press, ch. 2.
‫ בריאות פיזית ונפשית‬:‫ היבטים אידיאוסינקרטיים‬.‫ד‬
Wiegele, T. (1993) "Decisionmaking in an International Crisis,” International Studies
Quarterly, 17: 295-336.
** Post, J.M. & Robins, R.S. (1993) When Illness Strikes the Leader. New Haven: Yale
University Press, Chs. 1 & 7.
Kuchorski, A. (1984) "On Being Sick and Famous," Political Psychology, 5: 69-82.
Robins, R.S. & Post, J.M. (1995) "Choosing a Healthy President,” Political Psychology,
16: 841-860.
6
‫ קבלת החלטות במדיניות חוץ‬35414
* McDermott, R. (2008) Presidential Leadership, Illness and Decisionmaking, New York,
NY: Cambridge University Press, Ch. 2.
‫הקבוצה כגוף מקבל החלטות‬
** Gaenslen, F. (1992) "Decision-Making Groups," in Singer, E. & Hudson, V. (eds.),
Political Psychology and Foreign Policy. Boulder: Westview Press, Ch. 7.
* ‘t Hart, P., Stern, E.K. & Sundelius, B. (1997) “Foreign Policy-Making at the Top:
Political Group Dynamics.” In ‘t Hart, P., Stern, E.K. & Sundelius, B. (eds.), Beyond
Groupthink. Ann Arbor, MI: Michigan University Press, pp. 3-29.
Aldage, R.J. & Fuller, S.R. (1993) "Beyond Fiasco: A Reappraisal of the Groupthink
Phenomenon and a New Model of Group Decision Processes," Psychological Bulletin,
113: 533-552.
Meltsner, A.J. (1990) Rules for Rulers. Philadelphia: Temple University Press, Ch. 2.
Esser, J.K. (1998) “Alive and Well After 25 Years: A Review of Groupthink Research,”
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 73: 116-141.
** Janis, I.L. (1983) Groupthink. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, Chs. 8 & 10.
* ‘t Hart, P. (1990) Groupthink in Government. Amsterdam: Swet & Zeitlinger, Chs.1 & 2.
* Allison, G. & Zelikow, P. (1999) Essence of Decision. New York: Longman, Ch. 5.
Vertzberger (1990) The World in Their Minds, pp. 222-246.
Maoz, Z. (1990) "Framing the National Interest: The Manipulations of Foreign Policy
Decisions in Group Settings," World Politics, 43: 77-110.
Whyte, G. & Levi, A.S. (1994) "The Origin and Function of the Reference Point in Risky
Group Decision-Making: The Case of the Cuban Missile Crisis," Journal of Behavioral
Decision-Making, 7: 243-260.
Vertzberger, Y.Y.I. (1997) “Collective Risk Taking: The Decision-Making Group.” In ‘t
Hart, P., Stern, E.K. & Sundelius, B. (eds.), Beyond Groupthink. Ann Arbor, MI:
Michigan University Press, pp. 275-307.
Garrison, J.A. (1999) Games Advisors Play: Foreign Policy in the Nixon and Carter
Administration, College Station, TX: Texas A & M University Press.
Hermann, C.F. et al. (2001). “Resolve, Accept or Avoid,” International Studies Review,
3(2): 133-168.
7
‫ קבלת החלטות במדיניות חוץ‬35414
‫הארגון כגוף מקבל החלטות‬
* March, J.C. (1994) A Primer on Decision-Making. New York: The Free Press, Ch. 2.
Williamson, S.R. (1979) "Theories of Organizational Processes and Foreign Policy
Outcomes," in Lauren, P.G. (ed.), Diplomacy. New York: The Free Press, Ch. 6.
** Allison, G.T. & Halperin, M. (1972) "Bureaucratic Politics: A Paradigm and Some
Political Implications," in Tanter, R. & Ullman, R. (eds.), On Theory and Policy in
International Relations. Princeton: Princeton University Press, pp. 40-79.
* Steinbruner (1974) The Cybernetic Theory of Decision, Ch. 3.
* Halperin, M. (1974) Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy. Washington D.C.:
Brookings Institution, Chs. 3, 6 & 7.
Downs, A. (1967) Inside Bureaucracy. Boston: Little Brown & Company, Chs. 3 & 7.
Welch, D.A. (1992) "The Organizational Process and Bureaucratic Paradigms:
Retrospect and Prospect," International Security, 17(2): 112-146.
* Royer, I. and Langley, A. (2008) “Linking Rationality, Politics, and Routines in
Organizational Decision Making”. In Hodgkinson G.P. and Starbuck, W.H. (eds.) The
Oxford Handbook of Organizational Decision Making, Oxford: Oxford University Press,
ch. 13.
Ferguson, P.R., & Ferguson, G.J. (2000). Organizations: A Strategic Perspective.
Houndmills: Macmillan Press, Chs. 2 & 9.
* Hill, C. (2003). The Changing Politics of Foreign Policy. New York, NY: Palgrave,
Ch. 4.
De Holan, P.M. and Phillips, N. (2005) "Organizational Forgetting" in Easterby-Smith, M.
and Lyles, M. (eds.) The Blackwell Handbook of Organizational Learning and Knowledge
Management, pp.393-409. Malden, MA: Blackwell.
‫רציונליות כמודל נורמטיבי ופרקטי‬
* Simon, H.A. (1976) Administrative Behavior (3rd edition). New York: The Free Press,
Ch. 4.
Cohen, Y. (1994) Radicals, Reformers and Reactionaries. Chicago: University of
Chicago Press, Ch. 4.
March, J.C. & Simon, H.A. (1965) "The Concept of Rationality," in Singer, D.J. (ed.),
Human Behavior and International Politics. Chicago: Rand McNally, pp. 340-347.
8
‫ קבלת החלטות במדיניות חוץ‬35414
Nozick, R. (1993) The Nature of Rationality. Princeton: Princeton University Press, Chs.
3 & 5.
Steinbruner (1974) The Cybernetic Theory of Decision, Ch. 2.
* Simon, H. (1985) "Human Nature in Politics," American Political Science Review, 79:
293-304.
Bendor, J. & Hammond, T.H. (1992) "Rethinking Allison’s Models," American Political
Science Review, 86: 301-322.
* Green, D.P. & Shapiro, I. (1994) Pathologies of Rational Choice. New Haven: Yale
University Press, Ch. 2.
* Stein, J.G. & Tanter, R. (1980) Rational Decision-Making. Columbus: Ohio State
University Press, Chs. 1 & 3.
Janis & Mann (1977) Decision-Making, Ch. 2.
* Levy, J.S. (1997) "Prospect Theory and the Cognitive-Rational Debate," in Geva, N. &
Mintz, A (eds.), Decisionmaking on War and Peace. Boulder, CO: Lynn Reiner, pp. 3350.
Levy, J.S. (1992) "Prospect Theory and International Relations ,Theoretical Applications
and Analytical Problems," Political Psychology, 3: 283-310.
Kelley, S. (1995) "The Promise and Limitations of Rational Choice Theory," Critical
Review, 9: 95-106.
** Stein, J.G. (1992) "International Co-Operation and Loss Aversion: Framing the
Problem," International Journal, 47: 202-234.
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1986) "Choices, Values and Frames," in Arkes, H.R. &
Hammond, R.K. (eds.), Judgment and Decisionmaking. Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press, Ch. 11.
* Vis, B (2011) “Prospect Theory and Political Decision making”, Political Studies Review,
9:334-343
‫הטיות וטעויות חשיבה ותפישה‬
Elster J. (1990) "When Rationality Fails," in Cook, K.S. & Alvi, M. (eds.), The Limits of
Rationality. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, pp. 19-50.
** Vertzberger (1990) The World in Their Minds, pp. 137-160.
Fiske & Taylor (1984) Social Cognition, pp. 72-88.
* Jervis (1976) Perception and Misperception in International Politics, Ch. 9.
Lebow, N.R. (1981) Between Peace and War. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University
Press, Ch. 5.
9
‫ קבלת החלטות במדיניות חוץ‬35414
* Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1982) "Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and
Biases," in Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. & Tversky, A. (eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty.
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Ch. 1.
** Kruglanski, A.W. (2004) The Psychology of Closed Mindness. New York: Psychology
Press, Ch. 2.
George, R. Z. and Bruce, J. B. (eds.) (2008) Analyzing Intelligence, Washington D.C:
Georgetown University Press.
:‫אפשר גם לקרוא בעברית את‬
.3-3 ‫ פרקים‬,‫ האוניברסיטה הפתוחה‬:‫ תל אביב‬.‫) חשיבה ביקורתית‬0993( .‫ ע‬,‫ וטברסקי‬,.‫ ו‬,‫ליברמן‬
Sutherland, S. (1992) Irrationality. New Brunswick: Rutgers University Press.
Nisbett, R. & Rose, L. (1980) Human Inference. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall, Ch. 8.
Stein, J.G. (1988) "Building Politics Into Psychology: The Misperception of Threat,"
Political Psychology, 9: 245-271.
Bazerman, M.H. (1994) Judgment in Managerial Decision-Making (3rd edition). New
York: John Wiley & Sons, Ch. 2.
** Walker, S.G and Malici, A. (2011) U.S Presidents and Foreign Policy Mistakes,
Stanford CA: Stanford University Press, Chs.1,2
Kahneman, D, (2011) Thinking Fast and slow London: Penguin Books, pp. 109-198
‫קבלת החלטות בעתות משבר‬
** Brecher, M. (1993) Crises in World Politics. Oxford: Pergamon Press, pp. 2-8, 25-29, &
Ch. 6.
* Brecher, M. (2008) International Political Earthquakes Ann Arbor, MI: University of
Michigan Press, Chs. 12-13.
* Hermann, C.F. & Brady, L.P. (1972) "Alternative Models of International Crises
Behavior," in Hermann, C.F. (ed.), International Crises. New York: The Free Press, Ch.
12.
** Lebow (1981) Between Peace and War, Ch. 8.
Roberts, J.M. (1988) Decision-Making During International Crises. London: Mcmillan
Press, Chs. 6 & 7.
Snyder, H.G. & Diesing, P. (1977) Conflict Among Nations. Princeton: Princeton
University Press, Ch. 6.
10
‫ קבלת החלטות במדיניות חוץ‬35414
Oneal, J.R. (1988) "The Rationality of Decisionmaking During International Crises,"
Polity, 20: 598-622.
Tamuz, M. and Lewis, E.T. (2008) “Facing the Threat of Disaster: Decision Making
When the Stakes are High”. In Hodgkinson G.P. and Starbuck, W.H. (eds.) The Oxford
Handbook of Organizational Decision Making, Oxford: Oxford University press, ch.8
Holsti, O.R. (1988) "Crisis Decision-Making," in Tetlock, P.E. et al. (eds.), Behavior,
Society and Nuclear War, Vol. 1. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 8-37.
Pearson, C.M. & Clair, J.A. (1998) “Reframing Crisis Management,” The Academy of
Management Review, 23: 59-76.
Haney, P.J. (1992). Organizing for Foreign Policy Crises. Ann Arbor, MI: The
University of Michigan Press, Ch. 5.
Post, J.M. (2004) Leaders and Their Followers in a Dangerous World, Ithaca, NY:
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* Boin, A., 't Hart, P., Stern, E., and Sundelius, B. (2005) The Politics of Crisis Management,
New York: Cambridge University Press, Chs. 4,5,6.
‫יישום החלטות ולמידה מהיזון חוזר‬
** Halperin (1974) Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy, Chs. 13, 14 & 15.
Staw, B.M. & Ross, J. (1989) "Understanding Behavior in Escalation Situations,"
Science, 246: 216-220.
Janis & Mann (1977) Decision-Making, Chs. 6 & 12.
Clarke, M. & Smith, S. (1985) "Conclusions," in Smith, S. & Clarke, M. (eds.), Foreign
Policy Implementation. London: George Allen & Unwin, Ch. 9.
Deverell, E. (2009) “Crises as Learning Triggers: Exploring a Conceptual Framework of
Crisis – Induced Learning”. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, 17(3):
179-188
* Bukszar, E. & Connolly, T. (1988) "Hindsight Bias and Strategic Choice: Some Problems in
Learning from Experience," Academy of Management Journal, 31: 628-641.
** Levy, J.S. (1994) "Learning and Foreign Policy: Sweeping a Conceptual Minefield,"
International Organization, 48: 279-312.
Nutt, P.C. (1989) Making Tough Decisions. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, Ch. 14.
Hill, The Changing Politics of Foreign Policy, Ch. 6.
Welch, D. (2005) Painful Choices, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, Chs. 1 & 6.
11
‫ קבלת החלטות במדיניות חוץ‬35414
‫הערכת איכות החלטות‬
** George (1980) Presidential Decision making in Foreign Policy, pp. 1-14.
Janis & Mann (1977) Decision-Making, Chs. 1 & 14.
Janis, I.L. (1989) Crucial Decisions. New York: The Free Press, Chs.5, 7 & 10.
Simon, H.A. (1988) "Rationality as Process and as Product of Thought," in: Bell, D.E.,
Raiffa, H. & Tversky, A. (eds.), Decision-Making. Cambridge: Cambridge University
Press, Ch. 3.
** Stein & Tanter (1980) Rational Decision-Making, Ch. 10.
Schaefer M. and Crichlow, S. (2010) Groupthink Versus High-Quality Decision making
in International Relations, New York, NY: Columbia University Press Ch.9.
Herek, G.M., Janis, I.L. & Huth, P. (1987) "Decisionmaking During International Crises:
Is Quality of Process Related to Outcome?" Journal of Conflict Resolution, 31: 203-226.
March, J.G. (1982) "Theories of Choice and Making Decisions," Society, 20 (NovemberDecember): 29-39.
Tetlock, P.E. (1992) "Good Judgment in International Politics: Three Psychological
Perspectives," Political Psychology, 13: 517-539.
Whyte, G. (2000) “Make Good Decisions by Effectively Managing the Decisionmaking
Process", in Locke, E.A. (ed.), The Blackwell Handbook of Principles of Organizational
Behavior. Oxford: Blackwell Publishers, pp. 316-330.
* Tetlock, P.E. (2005) Expert Political Judgment, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University
Press. Ch. 8.
Lebow, R.N. (2010) Forbidden Fruits Counter Poutuols and International Relations,
Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University press ch.5 and Conclusions.
Renshon, S.A. and Larson, D.W. (eds.)(2003) Good Judgment in Foreign Policy,
Lonham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.
Mintz and Derouen, Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making, ch. 8
* Vertzberger, Y.Y.I (2002) "Foreign Policy Analysis", in Brecher, M. and Harvey F.P.
(eds.) Millennial Reflections on International Studies, Ann Arbor, MI: University of
Michigan Press, pp. 479-501.
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‫ספרים מומלצים לרכישה‬
1. Reber, A. (1995). The Penguin Dictionary of Psychology, 2nd edition. New York:
Penguin.(‫)או כל מהדורה מאוחרת יותר‬
2. Plous, S. (1993). The Psychology of Judgment and Decision-Making. Philadelphia:
Temple University Press.
3. Bazerman, M.H. (1994). Judgment in Managerial Decision-Making, 4th edition. New
York: John Wiley. )‫(או כל מהדורה מאוחרת יותר‬
4. Fiske, S.T. & Taylor, S.E. (1991). Social Cognition, 2nd edition. New York: McGrawHill. )‫(או כל מהדורה מאוחרת יותר‬
5. Vertzberger, Y.Y.I. (1990). The World in Their Minds: Information Processing,
Cognition and Perception in Foreign Policy Decisionmaking. Stanford: Stanford
University Press.
6. George A.L. and Bennett, A. (2005) Case Studies and Theory Development in the
Social Sciences, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
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