FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Singapore
Monday November 2, 2015:
Major increases in Asia Pacific flood exposure by 2020, according to a new study
from JBA Risk Management, leading catastrophe modelling company
Some Asian cities may see over a 30% increase in the population at risk of extreme flooding by 2020,
according to leading UK-based catastrophe modelling company JBA Risk Management Limited (JBA
RML).
Original research undertaken by JBA RML in their Flood in Focus bulletin highlights how the Asia
Pacific (APAC) region, with 26 countries, has more than half of the world’s total population. The
study draws attention to the extreme flood risk potential within several of the world’s most
populous cities and rapidly emerging insurance markets.
Given that several of these cities lie next to major river systems, prone to severe flooding, JBA Risk
Management has assessed the potential impacts such extreme flooding poses to future populations.
The study’s author, JBA technical director Dr Iain Willis, said today: “This research shows that large
conurbations in Asia continue to be at substantial risk of flood damage. It also shows that in the next
five years at least, we could reasonably expect this risk to increase based on projected population
levels. A lot of this increase is driven purely by socio-economic changes, such as rural-urban
migration within APAC countries.”
“I think these findings help reaffirm the importance of flood modelling in the region. The continued
rise of non-life and life insurance in the next few years across APAC is backed up by a burgeoning
middle class that see insurance as an increasingly important part of their risk management, whether
for their families or businesses.”
The analysis focused on four major Asian cities; Jakarta, Bangkok, Manila, and Singapore. JBA’s high
resolution global flood maps (GFM®) were compared to gridded population density projections to
estimate the exposed population in both 2010 and 2020.
The findings highlight that significant population increases are projected for all the cities in the study
and that the number of people exposed to extreme river and surface water flooding could increase
by over 30% by 2020.
When compared to the JBA river flood maps for a 1/200 year return period, Bangkok and Jakarta
show population exposures of 5.3 million and 5.2 million.
This would represent a 36% and 33% rise from 2010 levels respectively. Manila could see increases
of around 27%, whilst Singapore was 17%.
The methodology made use of UN projected population data from the Worldpop project
(www.worldpop.org.uk) that provides high resolution density maps for future projected years.
Using a Geographical Information System (GIS), the JBA River and Surface water hazard maps were
compared to the population projections, together with city boundaries to determine cumulative
populations at risk in different years.
With total gross premium increases in APAC averaging 6.6% annually from 2002-2014, these findings
further highlight the growing insured flood risk exposure in the region and the continued challenges
this poses for risk management.
The study is available from JBA Risk Management at http://www.jbarisk.com/node/221
Ends
About JBA Risk Management
JBA Risk Management Limited is a UK-based catastrophe modelling company and part of the wider
JBA Group. They specialise in providing flood map data and catastrophe models widely used by
leading reinsurers and insurers across the world, and additionally by property search companies,
local authorities, utility companies and the legal profession.
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If you’d like more information regarding this topic or to schedule an interview, please call or email
Edward Ion or Valerie Lim of Helix Media, communications advisors to JBA Risk Management.
Email: edward.ion@helixmedia.asia / Valerie.lim@helixmedia.asia
Mobile: +65 9111 6871 / +65 9755 3636
Office: +65 6222 6375