Space Station Captures Spectacular Images of Typhoon Maysak
By: Jeff Masters , 9:22 PM GMT on April 01, 2015
Category 4 Typhoon Maysak is headed west-northwest towards the Philippines, after pounding
the islands of Yap State in Micronesia's Caroline Islands on Tuesday. At 2 pm EDT Wednesday
the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) put Maysak's top sustained winds at 140 mph, and
the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) put Maysak's central pressure at 935 mb. Maysak
underwent an eyewall replacement cycle early on Wednesday, when the inner eyewall collapsed
and was replaced by a larger-diameter eyewall that formed from a spiral band. This process
weakened the storm's winds by 20 mph, and satellite loops showed a shrinking of the storm's
heavy thunderstorms, along with a warming of the cloud tops. However, on Wednesday
afternoon, the cloud tops began cooling and the area of heavy thunderstorms was expanding,
showing that Maysak had recovered from its eyewall replacement cycle and might be ready to
intensify once again. Maysak has moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots and a large area of ocean
with sea surface temperatures of 28°C (82°F) to work with until landfall. As Maysak approaches
the Philippines, wind shear will rise to the high range (20 - 30 knots), and there is some dry air
surrounding the storm that will likely get driven into the core by the high wind shear. The total
heat energy in the ocean will decrease, which should also help allow weakening to occur. The
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is predicting that Maysak will be a Category 1 storm
when it hits Luzon Island in the Philippines. The 12 UTC Wednesday runs of the GFS and
European models predicted that the center of Maysak would come ashore in Luzon near 21 UTC
(5 pm EDT) Saturday.
Figure 1. Some of the most spectacular images ever captured of a tropical cyclone from space:
Category 5 Super Typhoon Maysak as seen from the International Space Station at
approximately 6 pm EDT Tuesday March 31, 2015 (just after dawn local time.) At the time,
Mayask had top winds of 160 mph as estimated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, and a
central pressure of 905 mb, as estimated by the Japan Meteorological Agency. I brightened the
images and flipped them 180 degrees using Photoshop to better show them off. Image credit:
Terry W. Virts.
Maysak was the strongest typhoon (by pressure) so early in the year
At its peak strength on Tuesday, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) put Maysak's central
pressure at 905 mb, the lowest pressure they have estimated for any typhoon occurring so early
in the year (previous record: 930 mb for Typhoon Mitag of March 2002, Typhoon Alice of
January 1979, and Typhoon Harriet of January 1959.) The earliest in any year we've seen a
typhoon stronger than Maysak was in 1971, when Super Typhoon Amy deepened to 890 mb on
May 2. JTWC gave Maysak a Category 5 rating with 160 mph winds on Tuesday, making it one
of only three Category 5 typhoons ever observed in the Northwest Pacific prior to April (the
other two were Super Typhoon Ophelia of January 1958 and Super Typhoon Mitag of March
2002, both with 160-mph winds). According to intensity estimates from the Joint Typhoon
Warning Center, 2015 is the first year on record to have three Category 5 storms form in the
Pacific Ocean during the first three months of the year. The other two Category 5 storms in 2015
were Tropical Cyclone Pam (165 mph winds), which devastated Vanuatu in mid-March, and
Tropical Cyclone Eunice (160 mph winds), which affected ocean areas in the South Indian
Ocean. Reliable satellite records of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones extend back to the
early 1990s, so we only have about a 25-year period of good records for global tropical cyclones.
Earth averaged 4.6 Category 5 storms per year between 1990 - 2014, with 59% of these
occurring in the Northwest Pacific.
Maysak causes heavy damage to Chuuk and Yap
At least 5 deaths and extensive damage have been reported on Chuuk State (Micronesia), where
Maysak passed through over the weekend as a Category 1 typhoon. Up to 90% of the homes
were reportedly damaged or destroyed by the storm. On Tuesday, Maysak's northern eyewall
passed over the sparsely populated islands of Fais and Ulithi in the Yap State of Micronesia
while the storm was close to its top strength, and damage was likely severe to catastrophic on
those islands. Chuuk and Yap should keep an eye on a new tropical disturbance, Invest 99W,
which is organizing near where Maysak formed. The latest 12Z UTC Wednesday runs of the
GFS and European models show 99W becoming no worse than a weak tropical storm, though,
and the JTWC is giving 99W low odds of developing.