2011 Cohort Study
The University of Texas of the Permian Basin
Office of Institutional Research, Planning and Effectiveness
March 2013

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This report provides an analysis and study of the 2011 first time in college, full-time student cohort with specific emphasis on student retention. Methods and analysis include frequencies of student demographic data, binary logistic regression, a multiple linear regression, and a one-way
ANOVA.
Results indicate that first year GPA and having taken a developmental course are significant predictors of whether a student will remain enrolled at UTPB. Enrollment in a developmental course is a significant predictor of first year GPA.
When comparing the GPA of students who were retained, left, or transferred to a 2-year or a 4year institution there were the following differences: The GPA of enrolled students was significantly higher than those that transferred to a 2 year institution, and significantly higher than those not enrolled. GPA of those transferring to a 4 year college was significantly higher than those not enrolled.
IRPE will continue to monitor the GPA of first time freshman with a low GPA after their first year; and those students who expressed a desire to transfer to another 2 year or 4 year college.

2011 Cohort Study
The fall 2011 undergraduate entering class at The University of Texas of the Permian Basin
(UTPB), as defined by the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), consisted of 324 first-time, full-time, degree-seeking students. IPEDS uses the entering undergraduate cohort to calculate
4- and 6-year graduation rates. Graduation rates are important to the university for reasons including student success and formula funding. The purpose of this study is to examine and analyze patterns in the education of cohort members and identify ways to improve retention and graduation rates.
Cohort Details
Demographic information collected from students for state and federal reporting can be used to describe the cohort. The cohort was comprised of 153 males and 171 females. A 88.5% majority of the cohort students were either Hispanic (n = 160, 49%) or White (n = 127, 39%). The remaining students were Black (n = 19), Asian (n = 8), American Indian/Alaskan Native (n = 9) or two or more (n = 1). The mean age of the cohort was 18.1 years.
Information about students’ educational experience is also available. Thirty-three different majors were declared by 255 members of the cohort, while 69 students were undeclared. The most frequently declared majors were biology (n = 68), mechanical engineering (n = 33), kinesiology (n = 29), psychology (n = 19), and accounting (n = 12). Almost half of the students in the cohort lived in oncampus housing (n = 139). More than half of the cohort students (n = 188) were enrolled in at least one developmental course during the first year.
The Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board has suggested using the number of at-risk degrees to determine a portion of outcome-based formula funding. A degree is considered at-risk if the student has an SAT or ACT score below the national average, is a Pell Grant recipient, was initially enrolled part-time, was initially enrolled at age 20 or older, or received a high school equivalency
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certificate in the last six years. Members of the cohort meeting the at-risk criteria were identified. Of the
324 cohort members, 299 were identified as at-risk within the first year. Based on the SAT scores submitted by 209, 196 scored below the national average. Of the 176 who submitted ACT scores, 100 scored below the national average. Low SAT scores was the most common at-risk variable found in the cohort. The second most frequent variable was receiving a Pell Grant, with 168 recipients. Four students were age 20 or over at the time of enrollment. No one received a high school equivalency certificate in the last six years. The definition of cohort as first-time, full-time, degree-seeking students, precludes the presence of students who were initially enrolled part-time.
First-Year Retention
After the first academic year, 66.97% of the cohort (n = 217) were still enrolled at UT Permian
Basin. Of the 107 who were no longer enrolled as of fall 2012, 35 had transferred to another institution, including 22 who transferred to a two-year institution and 13 who transferred to another four-year institution. The institutions most commonly transferred to were Odessa College (n = 10), and Texas
Tech University (n = 3). Statistical analyses were performed to determine which factors affected students’ decisions to remain enrolled at UTPB, transfer to another institution, or stop attending college.
Logistic regression was used to predict whether students remained enrolled at UTPB. Descriptive statistics and ANOVA were used to compare the characteristics and behaviors of four groups of students- students who persisted at UT Permian Basin in Fall 2012, students who transferred to a twoyear institution, students who transferred to a four-year institution, and students who were not enrolled at UT Permian Basin in Fall 2012 and did not transfer to another institution.
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Results
A binary logistic regression was calculated to predict whether a cohort student will remain enrolled at UTPB in Fall 2012. A significant regression equation was found (χ²(8) = 90.82, p < .05).
Continuous predictor variables included first year GPA, gender, total SCH, and how many core courses were taken. Categorical predictor variables included were gender, whether or not they had taken a developmental course, at-risk status based on the THECB guidelines, whether or not they have ever had an early alert, whether or not they have ever came in for mentoring, and whether or not they lived on campus. One ordinal variable was also included- high school quartile based on class rank at graduation.
Of these variables, first year GPA and having taken a developmental course were significant variables.
For each one point increase in GPA, students were 4.2 times more likely to remain enrolled in Fall 2012.
For those students who needed developmental courses, when those students took a developmental course, they were 2 times more likely to remain enrolled in Fall 2012. See Table 1 for more information about the binary logistic regression equation.
Because several of the variables included in the binary regression equation may be related to first year GPA, a multiple linear regression was calculated to determine which, if any, of the variables predicted first year GPA. A significant regression was found (F(7) = 5.06, p < .05), with an R² of .10. One of the variables was a significant predictor- enrollment in any developmental courses. The GPA of students enrolled in any developmental courses was .49 points lower than the GPA of students not enrolled in a developmental course. See Table 2 for more information about the multiple linear regression equation.
The results of the two regression equations indicate that a student’s decision to remain enrolled at UTPB is influenced by academic performance, which is affected by how prepared students are for college courses when they enroll at UTPB. The two significant predictor variables from the two
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equations were examined further with descriptive and comparative statistics. For the students who were not retained in Fall 2012, distinctions were made between those who transferred to a two-year institution, those who transferred to another four-year university, and those who were not enrolled.
A one-way ANOVA was calculated comparing the grade point average for academic year 2011-
2012 of students who remained enrolled at UTPB, transferred to a two-year institution, transferred to a four-year institution, or were not enrolled. A significant difference was found among the groups of students (F(3, 312) = 21.46, p < .05). Tukey’s HSD was used to determine the nature of the differences between the groups. This analysis revealed that the GPA of enrolled students was significantly higher (m
= 2.96, sd = 0.75) than those that transferred to a 2 year college (m = 2.29, sd = 1.14), and significantly higher than those not enrolled (m = 2.01, sd = 1.14). The GPA of those transferring to a 4 year college was significantly higher (m = 2.84, sd = 1.14) than those not enrolled (m = 2.01, sd = 1.14). No significant difference was found between being enrolled at UTPB and transferring to a 4 year institution. No significant difference was found between transferring to a 2 year institution and transferring to a 4 year institution, nor between transferring to a 2 year institution and not enrolled.
Out of the 324 students in the cohort, 174 were enrolled in at least one developmental course as of their first term. Out of these 174 students in developmental courses, 147 were enrolled in developmental math only, 1 in developmental English only, no one in developmental Reading only, 7 in developmental Math and Reading, 8 in developmental Math and English, 2 in developmental English and
Reading, and 9 in all three developmental courses. A t test was calculated comparing the GPA of students enrolled in at least one developmental course to the GPA of students not enrolled in any developmental courses. A significant difference was found (t(314) = 7.79, p < .05). Students enrolled in developmental courses had a lower GPA (m = 2.41, sd = 1.02) than students not enrolled in developmental courses (m = 2.96, sd = 0.88).
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Subsequent t tests were calculated comparing the GPA of students in each type of developmental course to the students not enrolled in that type of developmental course. A significant difference was found for students in developmental math (t(314) = 5.08, p < .05). Students in developmental math had a lower GPA (m = 2.40, sd = 1.03) than students who were not (m = 2.96, sd =
.87). A significant difference was also found for students in developmental English (t(314) = 5.08, p <
.05). Students in developmental English had a lower GPA (m = 2.40, sd = 1.03) than students who were not (m = 2.96, sd = .87). No significant difference was found for students enrolled in developmental reading (t(314) = .96, ns). First year GPA was not significantly different for students who were in developmental reading (m = 2.41, sd = .88) compared to those who were not (m = 2.66, sd = 1.01).
Discussion
The results of this study indicate that academic performance during the first year at UTPB is the strongest predictor of whether a student will remain enrolled the subsequent fall semester. Students who are successful in their first year courses and have a higher first year GPA are more likely to continue taking courses at UTPB. Students requiring extra help from developmental courses were more likely to continue taking courses at UTPB. Certain factors, including enrollment in developmental courses, can be used as early indicators to identify students who may be at risk and could benefit from services to help them increase their GPA. Students enrolled in one or more developmental course, especially math or
English, are also more likely to be at risk of a lower GPA. If students in these groups are identified early, it is possible for the faculty and staff at UTPB to provide support to help these students succeed in their courses.
The Office of Institutional Research, Planning, and Effectiveness will continue to track this cohort annually and provide updates on annual retention and four- and six-year graduation rates. Information
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gained from this study will be applied to future cohorts in an effort to increase first-year retention rates as well as graduation rates.
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Table 1
Variables Included in Binary Logistic Regression Predicting Enrollment at UTPB Spring 2013 firstyeargpa
Gender
TOTALSCH
Dev
Atrisk
HSQuart
Corecourses oncampus
Constant
B
1.444
-.059
.076
.718
.191
.314
-.259
-.171
-4.249
S.E.
.195
.307
.108
.351
.594
.262
.181
.305
2.076
Wald
54.908
.037
.498
4.192
.103
1.439
2.053
.316
4.192 df
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Sig.
.000
Exp(B)
4.236
.848
.480
.041
.748
.230
.152
.574
.041
.842
.014
.943
1.079
2.050
1.210
1.369
.772
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Table 2
Variables Included in Multiple Linear Regression Predicting First Year GPA
(Constant)
Male or Female
Total Semester Credit Hours
At Risk (Age, SAT, ACT,
GED, Pell)
Enrolled in any developmental
Number of core courses taken first year
Quartile
On-campus Housing
Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
3.240
Std.
Error
.748
.185
.000
.114
.040
-.033 .219
-.490
-.036
-.138
-.198
.125
.066
.098
.114
Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
.093
.000
-.009
-.244
-.032
-.084
-.099 t
4.333
1.624
.006
-.153
-3.929
-.546
-1.405
-1.734
.000
.585
.161
.084
Sig.
.000
.105
.995
.879
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