Running Head: ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Forest Biomass Management & Conservation of Ecoservices from Wildfire Tim A. Dedrick 12/07/2014 SUS598 Integrative Capstone Project Professor Christopher Dudding Marylhurst University Author Note Tim A. Dedrick, this paper was prepared for SUS 598 Integrative Capstone Project: MBA Sustainability Program, Marylhurst University, fall 2014, taught by Professor Christopher Dudding. ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Copyright 2014 Tim A. Dedrick This document is copyrighted material. The author hereby does grant to Marylhurst University permission to electronically reproduce and transmit this document to students, alumni, staff, and faculty of the Marylhurst University community. ii ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Table of Contents Copyright…………………………………………………………………..……………………ii List of Tables…………………………………………………………………………………...iii List of Figures………………………………………………………………..…………………iii Acknowledgements……………………………………………………………….. ……..……iv Abstract………………………………………………………………………….…………….02 Introduction and Background………………………………………………...…………….….03 Literature Review……………………………………………………………....……………...06 Stakeholder Analysis…………………………………………………………..……..………..18 SWOT Analysis………………………………………………………………………………..26 Business Model Canvas…………………………………………………………...…………...31 Strategic Sustainability Plan………………………………………………….………...……..36 Monitoring, Evaluating and Revising the Plan….…………………….……………………....46 Conclusion, Recommendation, and Implementation…………………..……………………..48 References……………………………………………………….…….……………………...51 Appendix A - Stakeholder Influence and Impact graphic………..……….…….………….…56 Appendix B - SWOT Analysis Grid graphic……………………………….….……..….……57 Appendix C - Business Model Canvas Building Blocks graphic…..……………..….….……58 Appendix D – Big Windy Fire Complex photographs………………………….….…………59 Appendix E – Fuel Models 11, 12, 13 Logging Biomass Slash photographs….……….…….60 Appendix F – Southern Oregon University Cogeneration Project video……………….…….61 Appendix G – Benefit Cost Analysis, 25 Year Ecosystem Services vs. Wildfire……………62 List of Tables Table 1. Stakeholder Analysis Summary………………………………………….…….……25 List of Figures Figure 1. Implementation Timeline……………………………………..…………………….45 iii ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Acknowledgments The author acknowledges the Prineville Hotshots of 1994 and their dedication to the suppression of biomass fueled wildfires; they made their ultimate sacrifice on July 6, 1994 on Storm King Mountain, Colorado. 20 years Brothers & Sisters, Godspeed. “Prineville Hotshots Kathi Julie Beck - Ochoco National Forest Tamera "Tami" Jean Bickett - Ochoco National Forest Scott A. Blecha - Ochoco National Forest Levi Brinkley - Ochoco National Forest Douglas Michael Dunbar - Ochoco National Forest Terri Ann Hagen - Ochoco National Forest Bonnie Jean Holtby - Ochoco National Forest Robert Alan Johnson - Ochoco National Forest Jon Roy Kelso - Ochoco National Forest Helitack Crewmembers Robert E. Browning Jr.- Helitack from Savannah River Forest Station Richard Tyler - BLM Helitack, Grand Junction Smokejumpers Donald K. Mackey - Missoula Smokejumper Roger W. Roth - McCall Smokejumper James R. Thrash - McCall Smokejumper” (Always, 2014). iv ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Abstract The State Forests of Oregon possess some of the most biologically diverse and complex ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere. However, due to the exclusion of natural fire from these ecosystems for the previous 100 years and its historical role in ecosystem biomass balancing, the ecosystems have slowly been infiltrated, and are currently stocked with dense thickets of biomass. Now, when wildfires burn they resist control and suppression efforts. As they are burning the dense biomass, they are incinerating the ecosystems, damaging their numerous ecoservices including photosynthesis, transpiration, soil formation, and hydrological cycles, and destroying their subsequent ecosystem goods of clean air, clean water, vegetation, animals, and carbon storage. This strategic sustainability plan provides the Oregon Department of Forestry with a sustainable business model canvas that integrates with the triple bottom line inspired Southwest Oregon State Forest Management Plan, Concepts, and Strategies. This plan is a business model that provides for the sale of harvest biomass slash to reduce the excess biomass from forestlands, therefore enabling implementation of four forest management plan strategies, while generating the supporting revenue to do so. The customer for the sale of the biomass slash fuel is a partnership between the Oregon Department of Forestry and Southern Oregon University’s Cogeneration Project, a 2 kilowatt biomass slash fueled steam turbine that produces electricity and steam heat for the Southern Oregon University campus in Ashland, Oregon. 2 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Forest Biomass Management & Conservation of Ecoservices from Wildfire Background This strategic sustainability plan creates a business plan that aligns the Oregon Department of Forestry’s (ODF) Biomass Division and the Southwest Oregon District of the Oregon Department of Forestry (SWO-ODF) with the Southwest Oregon State Forest Management Plan (SWO-FMP), specifically Chapter 4 – Resource Management, Concepts and Strategies (ODF-FMP, 2010). The literature research explores the valuation of ecosystem services and its conservation from wildfire through management of forestland biomass. The plan includes procedural biomass management goal and objective recommendations. These will integrate and evolve the ODF field practices and treatment of biomass as an economic development scenario utilizing ODF biomass for a biomass slash fired cogeneration plant on the SOU campus, see Appendix F for project video. This business plan creates a proof-of-concept to illustrate how previously underused forest biomass slash may be harvested, and sold locally to fuel clean, sustainable, and economical electrical power and steam heat. History The client for this plan is Mr. Marcus Kauffman (Mr. K.), Biomass Resource Specialist, at the Oregon Department of Forestry Biomass Division in Springfield, Oregon (Mr. K., 2014, personal conversation). Mr. K. M.S. is a native of Southwest Oregon and has extensive experience in assisting the completion of 17 biomass projects in Oregon. The ODF is a resource management agency (ODF, 2014, about us) established in 1911 by the state legislature. This plan integrates and aligns the ODF biomass division with the ODF-SWO southwest Oregon state forest management plan’s concepts and strategies in Jackson, Josephine, Douglas, and Curry 3 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Counties. The author has chosen to write on the topic of biomass management and specifically the conservation of ecosystem services from wildfire via biomass management. The author has worked in natural resources for 36 years and experienced firsthand as a firefighter, crew boss, and civil engineer, the forestland and ecosystem combustion each fire season, due to the wellintentioned but currently ineffective management of forestland biomass. Rationale This plan addresses a specific type of forest biomass called slash. Slash is generated during the harvest of saw timber trees. The harvested tree’s limbs, tops, and broken pieces (called defect) have traditionally been left in the woods as a waste product. However, the slash has also historically caused a problem when left in the woods because it covers a lot of acreage in spatial horizontal and vertical arrangement, and it soon dries-out to the same internal moisture content as kiln-dried lumber. The slash’s arrangement is arbitrary, and it is a dead and dry hazardous fuel that physically connects to all levels and types of living vegetation in the forest. The slash is a tremendous fire hazard and is known as ‘red-slash’ because the conifer needles turn red in coloration when they die. There are three fuel models designated in the logging slash group, Models 11, 12, and 13 (IFRES, 1982), see Appendix E for photographs. The fuel models are laboratory mathematical models of fire behavior based on fuel moisture, fuel diameter, spatial arrangement, plant physiology, and tons-per-acre of biomass. The traditional method to remove this hazardous biomass fuel in southwest Oregon has consisted of ‘cutting and stacking sticks’ utilizing hand crews and bulldozers to create piles and then burning them onsite in the forest during the wet winter months. However, even burn-in-place treatments have been limited due to budget constraints and Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) air stagnation regulations in the southwest Oregon’s Rogue Valley. Add to that a lack of biomass slash fuel 4 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN markets in economically depressed southwestern Oregon, and a dearth of secondary wood products industries, and the result is an overstocking of forest biomass slash. This plan proposes a solution to the biomass overstocking through an opportunity to participate in a long-term business relationship with Southern Oregon University. Partnering with the SOU Cogeneration Project (SOU, 2014, cogeneration) could provide a fundamental advantage in funding and development for the ODF Southwestern Oregon biomass management program. With the projected annual sales of 21,000 bone dry tons of biomass to the SOU Cogeneration Project (2014) the ODF would generate $735,000 each fiscal year. The revenue would be used to implement boots-on-the-ground integrated forest management strategies through biomass reduction and removal within the SWO-ODF unit. This would provide funding and alignment of the ODF biomass management program with the ODF southwest forest plan integrated strategies in special forest products, alternative vegetation treatments, forest health, and soils. Funding the mechanical thinning and removal of the current high level of biomass slash (average cost of $837 per acre; Dedrick, 2013) in southwest Oregon forests will produce forestlands that are fire resilient sustainable ecosystems. Mechanically thinned forests have evidenced increased large tree growth as well as increased speed in the decomposition of masticated sub merchantable material (CFSC, 2014). Mechanical thinning the forest mimics the effects of natural fires thinning processes to achieve lower historic fuel-loading quantities and greater complexity in the fuel’s vertical and horizontal arrangements. Local annual benefits from ODF biomass sales revenue of $735,000 would fund the treatment of approximately 875 acres per year of fire prone wildland urban interface (WUI) forestland in southwest Oregon. 5 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Literature Review This literature review discusses the previous research, both secondary and primary, that has been conducted which supports the capstone topic of ecosystem valuation (Costanza, 1997; Greenfire, 2008; Mates, 2006) and its conservation from wildfire via biomass management. Secondary data was collected from peer-reviewed articles and papers through Marylhurst University’s Schoen Library, through review of topic papers via internet searches, through topic online searches in other universities archives, and through state and federal government research articles, publications, and journals. Additionally, limited secondary and primary data (cogeneration plant design information and local biomass information at public meeting) was acquired from personal conversations with the client and stakeholders. The literature supports the topic of the paper and identifies gaps in the research records that this plan addresses. It also identifies and discusses additional secondary data gathered from stakeholders, as well as limited primary data that was collected, analyzed and synthesized in a supporting benefits cost analysis (Dedrick, 2013) by the author. The author analyzed the literature to determine the most effective and efficient concept to create a business model canvas for a state agency. Thus, the stakeholders involved, and the resultant self-supporting sustainable business plan. Secondary literature reviewed indicates that the monetization of ecosystem services (Greenfire, 2008) to conserve them from destruction by wildfire via biomass management is economically viable. The analysis utilized the accepted ecological, economic value-transfer method from previous studies (Costanza, 2006; Mates, 2004); said methodology transfers dollars and cents monetization values to ecosystem services, per acre. The benefit/value to society to conserve the ecosystem services was weighed against the cost to manage forest biomass with four treatment prescriptions (Dedrick, 2013; Medford BLM/USFS 2008) in order to avoid their 6 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN loss through wildfire. The benefit/value to society to conserve the ecoservices was weighed against the cost to suppress the wildfires. The four biomass prescription’s benefit cost ratios (BCR) were all economically positive. This literature review’s narrative is organized by topics, to answer the following research questions (1)What is biomass? (2)What are the current state forest management plans? (3) What is ecosystem valuation? (4) What is the current biomass situation in Oregon, and (5) What are the current biomass conditions in southwest Oregon? (1)What is Biomass? There is an over accumulation of woody biomass within the forests that range across the state (OSU, 2004, report). Woody biomass is defined as the accumulation of woody material in a standing living forest or grassland. It may be evergreen, deciduous, or grasses (ODF-FMP, 2010). It may be either dead or alive, standing like a tree, brush or grass or lying on the ground and dead (tree, brush, grass). Biomass is woody or cellulosic material that is usually extraneous to the current growth of dominant healthy trees and indigenous fire resilient brush and grasses. Natural forests and grasslands are self-managing of biomass. Natural fire caused by lightning being the key factor in cyclically burning forestland with low-intensity fires that decompose the biomass to natural nutrients for the forest or grassland. In this manner, forest surface fuels are consumed in a mosaic pattern; tree ladder-fuels (limbs reaching from the ground to crown) are reduced; natural delimbing is stimulated, and random tree spacing is produced. Results include variability in vegetation species, and the random spacing composition of the forest and grassland with trees, brush, grasses, and open spaces. Natural fire, therefore, is the primary factor to the natural balancing of biomass in a forest or grassland. 7 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN However, the understanding of natural fire’s pivotal function with its cyclical role of recurring low-intensity mosaic burning patterns has been misunderstood in these ecosystems. For the previous 100 years, state and federal agencies have essentially eliminated natural fire from forest and grassland ecosystems. The well intentioned but misled exclusion of natural fire from ecosystems has resulted in the unintended production of extensive thickets of woody biomass within the forestlands and wildland urban interface zone (WUI). The WUI is a mixed zone where rural homes, farms/ranches, and rural communities are situated in amongst forest vegetation. Oregon has an estimated 11 million acres of wildland urban interface zones (OSU, 2004, report). The present accumulation of forest/grassland biomass has reached epic proportions. “Evidence suggests that within Oregon there are 5.6 million acres of forestland that is so thick with biomass that the reduction of the vegetation by the traditional biomass management method of prescribed burning is not feasible” (OSU, 2004, report p.27). Because of the energydensity/energy release potential, this biomass growth is designated as a hazardous fuel. Biomass fuel is transferred sunlight energy stored as carbon-based chemical energy, with an energy release as a heat-exothermic reaction and manifested in heat conduction, convection, and radiation (Randall, n.d.). The tremendous accumulation of hazardous biomass is now detrimental to the health of the State’s forests, grasslands, and citizens, when it ignites and burns each fire season. (2)What are the Current State Forest Management Plans? Oregon State Forests are managed by the following plans, and their associated concepts and strategies; “Northwest Oregon State Forests Management Plan; Southwest Oregon State Forests Management Plan; Elliott State Forest Management Plan; Eastern Region Long Range 8 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Management Plan”(ODF, 2014, plan). Each ODF state forest management plan is written anew every ten years to reflect current economic and political climates and scientific research and development in the myriad of forest sciences. The existing forest plans utilize the adaptive management philosophy of a watershed based management approach. Essentially, the overarching goal is to create healthy watersheds, with the belief that the forestry sciences (silviculture, aquatics, wildlife, soils, botany, hydrology, fire, entomology) concepts and strategies must be combined and focused at producing healthy watersheds. This in-turn is supposed to produce key indicator species of overall forest health such as flourishing populations of indigenous aquatic and terrestrial wildlife. This is not an unsound philosophy or program except it is incomplete, or imperfectly implemented. It is missing fulfillment of biomass management, the natural element which will prevent watershed health success from occurring due to systemic woody biomass overstocking and the resultant wildfires. The wildfires are destroying the very 15 ecosystem services that are the foundation of the ecosystem goods of a healthy watershed. (3)What is Ecosystem Valuation? Ecosystem services are the natural factory that produce for example, the key ecosystem goods of; hydrologically produced and filtered clean water; evapotranspiration produced clean atmospheric gasses and oxygen; vegetation and wetlands that trap and store sediment and carbon monoxide/sequestration; forest biomes that provide habitat/refugia for both aquatic and terrestrial wildlife as well as the formation of soil (Costanza, 1992, 1997, 2006; Greenfire, 2008; Mates, 2006). In their paper, Economic Analysis of the 2006 Wayne National Forest Plan (2008), Greenfire Consulting Group LLC, conducted an economic analysis of a forest plan that was 9 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN being revised/updated for the Wayne National Forest in the State of Ohio. The primary theme of the Greenfire (2008) research is advancing the idea of placing a value per acre on a forest’s ecosystem services, with the public costs and benefits calculated and contained in a cooperative forest management plan that is the product of social choice rather than a federal mandate. Greenfire (2008) posits that since the Forest Service appropriations are based on congressionally established budget incentives, then net benefits to the ecosystem services are not the Forest Service priority, therefore net ecoservices benefits are not being realized by the public. Which suggests that the Forest Service is not motivated by a philosophy of forest health management but is simply an economic engine feeding on the nation’s ecosystems. The Greenfire (2008) team, utilizing the economist-generated approach of the value-transfer method, permitted Northern Hemisphere forest ecosystem services to receive a dollar value. Greenfire was able to identify and apply the peer-reviewed literature, among them William Mates (2006) research study, which determined 12 natural capital ecosystem service values-per-acre. An additional research team from the University of Vermont led by Robert Costanza (1992, 1997, 2006) also established values-per-acre for not only the 12 ecosystem services, but valuation for wetlands, riparian zones, and bays/estuaries. Greenfire (2008) utilized the 12 core ecosystem service valuations and added three additional ecosystem services through their research for a total of 15 ecosystem services monetized and given a dollar-value-per-acre. These 15 ecosystem services are; “(1) Waste removal – air, (2) Storm water control, (3) Pollination, (4) Carbon sequestration, (5) Soil retention, (6) Hydrological services, (7) Carbon storage, (8) Soil formation, (9) Biological control, (10) Cultural/spiritual, (11) Habitat/refugia, (12) Aesthetic/recreational, (13) Waste 10 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN treatment, (14) Water supply, and (15) Gas (atmospheric)/climate” (Greenfire, 2008). This provides a powerful yet simple economic framework with which to approach forest management. The ecosystem service’s values were utilized in a benefits cost analysis (BCA) titled ‘25 Year Ecosystem Services vs. Wildfire’ (Dedrick, 2013), to determine the annual ecoservices value to society, and the 25 year discounted value, within a representative 24,000 acre plot of temperate forest in southwest Oregon known as the Big Windy Complex, BCA available in Appendix G. The plot of forest (Big Windy Complex) was consumed by a wildland fire in the summer of 2013, see photos in Appendix D. The BCA (Dedrick, 2010) examined the cost of treating the entire representative 24,000 acres with four alternative biomass management prescriptions (Medford BLM, 2008) once over a 25-year lifecycle to remove the biomass to prevent the ecosystem acreage from burning by wildfire. The assumption being the acreage once treated would not burn for 25 years. The result of the BCA (Dedrick, 2013) to treat the representative 24,000 acres via biomass removal to conserve the value of the 15 ecosystem services from wildfire over a 25 year lifecycle was very positive. Benefit-cost-ratios (BCR) were calculated for the four biomass treatments and one BCR for wildfire suppression “(a) alternative A – combination wildland urban interface 3.21 BCR, (b) alternative B – shrub woodland 2.37 BCR, (c) alternative C – conifer understory 3.50 BCR, (d) alternative D – conifer/biomass removal & sale 7.12 BCR, (e) alternative E - wildfire suppression 0.06 BCR” (Dedrick, 2013). The BCA suggests that the monetized values (Dedrick, 2013) of the 15 ecosystem services in an Oregon forest, lost to society by wildfire on 24,000 acres of forest/wetland provides for an immediate loss of $67 million, and discounted over the 25-year lifecycle of the project, accounted for a loss of $1.1 billion dollars. When this cost factor is utilized, the lost value of ODF ecosystem services 11 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN (ecoservices) in fire season 2014 in the State of Oregon is the burned acreage of 58,000 acres times the ecosystem’s value of $2,820/acre for a total lost value of $163 million. (4)What is the Current Biomass Situation in Oregon? Congress increased the timber cut (to pay for WWII war debt) in the late 1940s on western federal lands twelvefold over what it had been pre-war. That was unsustainable. The increased cut also removed a good measure of annual biomass accumulation through both logging and biomass thinning crews (it still did not keep up with biomass accumulation due to fire exclusion). Researcher Tong Wu (2011) states in his team’s research article titled “Investing in Natural Capital; Using Economic Incentives to Overcome Barriers to Forest Restoration” (Wu, T. et. al., 2011, p.1), “A century of suppressing fires …have altered the long-term ecological trajectory of forests across the western United States” (Wu, T., et. al., 2011, p.1). As stated previously by Greenfire (2008), the Forest Service operates within a system of financial incentives established by Congress, and not upon the foundation of ecosystem conservation. Increasing the cut was a double-edged sword. Within 30 years of implementation, the accelerated federal timber cuts and adherence to fire exclusion resulted in expedited ecosystem service degradation and ecosystem goods scarcity. In fall 2010, the University of Oregon’s Ecosystem Workforce Program launched a 15 countywide assessment of Oregon and far northern California counties called the Dry Forest Zone Project (2010). The assessment targeted 15 counties in a swath from northeastern Oregon, through central eastern and southwestern Oregon, and reaching into the far northern California counties of Trinity, Modoc, and Siskiyou. These 15 counties have the common denominators of high rates of unemployment and poverty, degraded landscapes and severe wildfire risk due to 12 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN biomass overstocking levels. The counties also share the commonalities of strong natural resource stewardship and innovative entrepreneurship. The land in these counties is primarily owned by the federal government, therefore any change in productivity (ecosystem or financial) within the federal forests affects the rural host communities in jobs and payroll (U of O, 2010). Whatever happens to the federal lands has a direct effect on the myriad counties ecology and economy. Research to support the viewpoint of an altered or degraded Oregon forest ecology is provided by the U of O dry forest zone project (2010), the OSU hazardous fuels report to ODF (2004), and Wu (2011). Many Oregon forests have an artificial vegetation biomass inventory that is overly dense and spatially continuous from the forest floor to tree canopy. These degraded landscapes result in degraded ecosystem services such as compromised hydrological services, soil formation, wetland storm dispersal, and water filtering to name but a few. Therefore degraded ecosystem services culminate in the degradation of ecosystem goods including fish, timber, water, and air. When the adaptive management philosophy of the Northwest Forest Plan was implemented in 1994, one of the consequences was a reduction in the timber-harvest (Britell, 1994) in Oregon and Washington from 3 billion board feet to 1.2 billion board feet annually. A consequence of the federal timber cut reduction after 1994 was that the associated forest biomass thinning activities were also essentially abandoned. That was 20 years ago. The OSU (2004) report points out that there is an identified 55 million bone dry tons of accumulated woody biomass currently available for harvest in the State of Oregon on the combined state and federal lands. Within those lands, the ODF manages approximately 818,800 13 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN acres of forestland. That biomass equates to approximately 4.4 million chip-van truckloads. The current market value of one bone dry ton of biomass is roughly $35 per ton (Kauffman, 2012); this calculates to a market value of the statewide available-to-harvest 55 million bone dry tons at roughly $1.9 billion. (5) What are the Current Biomass Conditions in Southwest Oregon? To provide an indication of how much hazardous biomass fuel is available to harvest in southwest Oregon, within 30 miles of the SOU Cogeneration Project (2014), current Federal inventories evidence (Medford BLM, 2008) that forestlands contain approximately 6 billion board feet of hazardous biomass fuel available for harvest. On the State lands, ODF Biomass Specialist (personal communication at SOU stakeholder/public meeting 11/12/14) stated that within 30 miles of the SOU plant there is approximately 105,000 bone dry tons of biomass fuel available annually, which is five times the biomass required to fuel the facility’s annual needs of 21,000 bone dry tons. 2013 wildfires in southwest Oregon consumed 43,078 acres of forestland biomass in 348 fires (SWO Fire, 2014). Within these wildfires, ecosystems were combusted and consumed. According to Dedrick (2013), the ecosystem’s associated ecoservices have an estimated value of $2,820 per acre, therefore the lost benefits of ecosystem services in 2013 upon the 43,078 state burned acres in southwest Oregon has an estimated economic value of $121.5 million. The cost to treat biomass upon the forestland averages $837 per acre (Dedrick, 2013; Medford BLM, 2008) and the cost to suppress wildfire averages $2,250 per acre (Dedrick, 2013). The ODF spent approximately $96 million in fire suppression in southwest Oregon in 2013. These figures suggest that if the $96 million in fire suppression could have been spent on 14 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN biomass reduction at $837 per acre, then 114,695 acres could have been funded for biomass treatment on southwest ODF lands. In the forestry wildland firefighting industry, biomass vegetation in the forests and grasslands are categorized as a combustible fuel. The fuel is subdivided into specific mathematical fuel models for laboratory analysis in highly controlled combustion experiments. The fuel is subdivided into 13 fuel models (IFRES, 1982) according to the fuel being dead or alive, fuel diameter, fuel moisture content, fuel plant physiology, fuel spatial arrangement, fuel bed depth and density. Fire resilient forests exhibit a biomass fuel loading (fuel models 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10) of approximately 2 – 5 tons per acre, with fuel bed depths less than two feet (IFRES, 1982) and with a vertical and horizontal spatial fuel arrangement that supports low-intensity surface fires with flame-lengths less than 4 feet in height (IFRES, 1982). Four-foot tall flamelengths are the maximum height that is effectively controlled by Human firefighters with handtools (RMRS, 2011). Current biomass conditions in southwest Oregon forests present logging slash fuel models number 11, 12, and 13: a. Model 11, fuel loading 11 tons/acre, flame-lengths of 3.5 feet, fuel bed 1 foot; b. Model 12, fuel loading 34 tons/acre, flame-lengths of 8 feet, fuel bed 2-3 feet; c. Model 13 fuel loading 58 tons/acre, flame-lengths of 10.5 feet, fuel bed 3 feet (Intermountain, 1982). This places suppression and control efforts out of the 4-foot flame-length range that is within human firefighters with hand-tools range. Mechanical thinning and removing the current high 15 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN level of biomass stocking conditions in southwest Oregon forests will create forestlands that are sustainable ecosystems. Mechanically thinned forests will mimic natural fire’s thinning processes to achieve both lower historic fuel-loading quantities and greater complexity in the fuel’s vertical and horizontal spatial arrangements. This will produce forests in southwest Oregon that will have approximate 4-foot wildfire flame-lengths. The resulting fire will, therefore, remain predominately on forest surface fuels and will not have the fuel continuity to run to the tree crowns. The forests will then possess fuel arrangements and fuel loading which is resilient to wildfire, and that can be suppressed by a human with a hand-tool. Performance Metrics This capstone is a natural resource project, according to Science for Nature and People (SNAP), natural resource metrics are complex; “Measuring the outcomes of natural resource management and ecosystem service-based management remain a challenge. Policy makers and donors typically prefer straightforward aggregate indicators…, but natural resource and ecosystem service-based management are not amenable to such an approach” (SNAP, 2014, website). The author’s research indicates an appropriate metric methodology will be utilizing a customized version of portions of the Global Reporting Initiative (2014) framework, which advocates the G4 Guidelines of measurement metrics framework. The internal and external development components are addressed within the five-step framework of the GRI reporting process: (1) prepare, (2) connect, (3) define, (4) monitor, and (5) report (GRI, 2014). Review Conclusions and Limitations to Research The literature review results provide the evidence of a statewide ODF forestland status of biomass overstocking (OSU, 2004, report; U of O, 2008, dry forest) with the associated effect of 16 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN wildfires in forests and the wildland urban interface that resist control efforts (ODF, 2014, protection). The research evidence displays the economic costs to suppress the intense and extreme wildfires, as well as the collateral environmental and economic damage caused to Oregon’s ecosystem services and ecosystem goods (Dedrick, 2013). The research provides evidence that Oregon’s ecosystems have a very real economic value per acre (Costanza, 2006; Dedrick, 2013; Greenfire, 2008), and on a discounted 25 year timeline they are worth more per acre to conserve than the cost to thin the biomass to prevent combustion via wildfire (Dedrick, 2013). Limitations to research include an absence of natural resource management agency research and investigation of alternative forms of biomass management concepts and strategies. Description of Other Primary and Secondary Research other secondary research. Secondary research was obtained from SOU Cogeneration Project panelist Bill Carlson of Carlson Small Power Consultants (Carlson, 2013) who completed a feasibility study of the Southern Oregon University Cogeneration Project. Carlson (2013) concludes that locally sourced biomass fuel is the best choice for the project. Carlson points out that natural gas is a most fungible resource as it is a highly volatile commodity with multiple uses to include raw feedstock for plastics manufacture, thus natural gas is sold to the highest commodity market, and it is not just used for fuel. primary research. Primary research data that supports the peer-reviewed secondary research of the OSU report (2004), the U of O report (2008), and the Medford BLM report (2008) was provided to the author in a personal conversation by Mr. K. the client for the Oregon Department of Forestry, at 17 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN a SOU Cogeneration Project public meeting at Southern Oregon University on November 12, 2014. Mr. K. has conducted biomass feedstock research for the project and concluded that five times the required biomass quantity of 21,000 bone dry tons annually, exist locally for harvest. The author collected additional primary research data in notes obtained from a forum conducted by the SOU meeting facilitation team. SOU project technical data on the operational design of the biomass cogeneration plant, availability, type, and options of biomass feedstock, and environmental impacts of the plants byproducts was provided by Jack LeRoy of Forest Energy Group, LLC (FEG, 2014) who is a wood fiber utilization specialist, and Bill Carlson of Carlson Small Power Consultants (Carlson, 2013) who authored the feasibility analysis for the SOU cogeneration plant. The author attended the public meeting of the SOU Cogeneration Project on November 12, 2014 on the Campus of Southern Oregon University where the client, Mr. K., made introductions of the author to the project’s stakeholders. The author also completed a benefits cost analysis in summer term 2010 for SUS510 natural resource economics titled “25-Year Ecosystem Services vs. Wildfire: A Benefit Cost Analysis” (Dedrick, 2013) and utilized data from the analysis in this plan’s formation. The collected primary data and research have supported the collected secondary data and research that was required to support the research questions. The following section will identify this plan’s stakeholders, as they are the vital constituents whose influence and impact will support and permit implementation. Stakeholder Analysis Stakeholders are the comprehensive possible participants, powerful and docile, impacted and non-impacted, active and observer, in a business proposition. The key stakeholders have 18 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN more influence and more impact, thus contribute more support and value to the business proposition. As the stakeholder’s influence and impact from the business proposition are reduced, they will likewise contribute less support, value, and may become an interested observer. The Stakeholder Analysis Summary, see Table 1 below, prioritizes and displays the stakeholders from most impact, most influence to low impact, low influence, and if they are key to the viability of the plan. The Stakeholder Influence and Impact graphic, see Appendix B, displays the groups of stakeholders, their influence levels and impact potential. There are five key stakeholders in this business proposition, the ODF biomass division, SWO-ODF unit forester, SWO-ODF stewardship forester division, SWO-ODF protection division, and the SOU facility division, cogeneration plant (ODF-FMP, 2010; SOU, 2010, green; stakeholder public meeting November 12, 2014 at SOU). Key Stakeholders The ODF biomass division is a small division consisting of two individuals, a supervisor located in Roseburg, Oregon and the author’s sponsor/client, Mr. K., the State’s ODF Biomass Specialist, located in Springfield, Oregon. This division’s influence and impact in the plan is the highest for a stakeholder. Mr. K. has the entire state as his jurisdiction. His function is to create value in the State’s accumulated biomass as reflected in the Southwest Oregon State Forest Management Plan, Chapter 4-102 Special Forest Products (ODF-FMP, 2010). The Special Forest Products strategy states, in part; The special forest products program will build on business practices that are already in place, such as the procedures for competitive bidding and negotiated sales. Business 19 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN elements that are missing or in need of modification will be developed and brought up to date. The Department of Forestry believes that these strategies will enhance the overall efficiency of the State Lands Program. In addition, Oregon’s Economic Development Department has an interest in helping this segment of the state’s economy to grow. The Department of Forestry’s link to this effort will be to provide a reliable source of raw materials for commercial and personal use (ODF-FMP, 2010, p4-102). Mr. K’s mission is to create biomass markets where none exists, create partnerships where none exists, and add value to the waste stream that is defined as a hazardous fuel. Forest biomass takes many forms, live merchantable timber, live pulp trees/poles, dead pulp trees/poles, slash (the tops, limbs, branches and broken parts of trees that occur during merchantable timber harvest), and large brush such as Manzanita. Logging is alive and well on state and private forestlands, and one of the current strategies set by the ODF forest concepts and strategies for harvest, requires that all harvest activity generated biomass be inspected by ODF stewardship foresters to comply with current management protocols at the harvest sites. However as biomass is not an energy dense fuel and transportation costs reduce profit, there has been an absence of markets for the biomass slash, brush, and pulp trees. This has led most logging contractors to pile this biomass in huge piles in the forest, allowing the sun and wind to dehydrate it, and then burn it on-site in the forests. This presents several immediate problems, air pollution, and fire control. The Rogue River Valley is a DEQ non-attainment area for air quality thus open burning of piled biomass is tightly regulated. Of the 16 million acres in Oregon covered in accumulated biomass, 11 million acres are located in WUIs and of that; 5.6 million acres are too dense in biomass thickets to burn (OSU, 2004, report) with prescribed controlled fire. 20 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Because of this, some loggers decide to chip or shred the biomass and scatter it on-site as mulch for the natural decomposition or as mulch to reduce operations erosion or road erosion. Burning still takes place which is not inexpensive; Mr. K. is looking for a way to utilize the State’s logging sale waste biomass to (1) reduce ODF operation expenses, (2) prevent burns from escaping control (and their tremendous associated suppression costs), and (3) provide a cheap renewable sustainable carbon-neutral fuel to industrial and commercial heat or cogeneration biomass plants. Mr. K’s stakeholder approval and support for this strategic sustainability plan is key and has been granted. Southern Oregon University’s Facility Division is managed by Drew Gilliland. He is in charge of all facilities campus-wide. This division’s response to the business plan meets the highest rating for both influence and impact due to the commitment of the university to the “SOU Green Purchasing Policy – FAD.026, C. Policy (a) energy efficient equipment – heating and cooling systems, (b) forest conservation, (c) ensure that all wood …purchased by SOU is certified to be substantially harvested by a comprehensive, performance-based certification system, (d) purchase or use of previously used or salvaged wood (biomass slash) and wood products is encouraged” (SOU, 2010, green). New administration at SOU has created the SOU Sustainability Council and SOU Sustainability Center and the administration has adopted a goal of becoming carbon neutral 5% per year and 100% carbon neutral by 2050 (stakeholder meeting at SOU November 12, 2014). SOU had a feasibility study conducted to determine the viable options to replace the two remaining old failing/failed steam boilers (Carlson Small Power Consultants, 2010). Carlson (2010) determined that there were two viable options to power new steam boilers, replace the existing boilers with natural gas-fired boilers or construct a new plant that is fueled by biomass. 21 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Taking into account the fact that SOU’s Sustainability Council has a stated goal of a carbonneutral campus by 2050; the feasibility study reported that 90% of the university’s annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are produced by the existing natural gas-fired boilers. To remain true to their sustainability commitment, these facts presented the university with one viable alternative to power their new boilers, renewable, carbon-neutral biomass. The university has also decided to not only replace the gas-fired steam-heat plant but to build a new plant fueled by biomass slash that produces not only heat but electricity as well, thus, the SOU Cogeneration Project (2014). The plant will create steam to drive the turbines at 600 psi to create 2KW of electricity, after which the spent steam is conducted into the campus’ existing steam heat-circulation system (SOU panelist Carlson discussion at SOU stakeholder/public meeting 11/12/14). The SOU campus will be electrified by the biomass plant with any excess renewable electricity purchased by Pacific Power & Light. The plant will also produce Renewable Energy Credits (RECS) which will be sold by SOU as a market commodity. Drew Gilliland has partnered with Mr. K. in the SOU Cogeneration Project to obtain the required 21,000 bone dry tons of biomass required to fuel the plant each year (Kauffman, 2012). Mr. K. has completed biomass feedstock studies indicating there is five times that amount of locally produced but as-yet unused biomass available. Thus, SOU’s key stakeholder approval and support for the concept of this strategic sustainability plan has been received. Next, is the local ODF Unit’s stakeholder influence and impact description. The Southwestern Oregon (SWO) unit is divided into forestry and wildland fire protection divisions. The forestry division’s impact and influence are highest (matches Mr. K’s) and the protection division’s impact and involvement in the plan are also high. To gain access, knowledge, and support for this business plan concept, the author worked as an employee in the wildfire 22 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN protection and suppression division of the SWO-ODF from June to August 2014. The author therefore has included the SWO-ODF Unit Forester, Mr. Dan Thorpe (Mr. T.), in his capstone since June 2014, and a meeting of the minds and ODF approval with Mr. T. for this business plan occurred via a telephone dialogue on November 14, 2014. Under this plan, by the Unit Forester’s direction, the forestry and protection divisions in the SWO-ODF will implement this plan through Chapter 4 - Resource Management Concepts and Strategies of the current 2010 Southwest Oregon State Forest Management Plan, Special Forest Products (ODF-FMP, 2010). This states, in part, “the following strategies have been developed to fulfill the vision that special forest products will be managed as a viable commodity program” (ODF, 2010, FMP, p4-102/4103). All three divisions (biomass, forestry, and protection) work hand in glove to support the forest plan for this geographic area, the Southwest Oregon State Forests Management Plan. Contained within this forest management plan is the ODF’s commitment to manage biomass to both conserve the ecosystems and to reduce the hazardous biomass fuel buildup that has been identified in the reviewed literature research (Medford, 2008; OSU, 2004, report; U of O, 2008, dry forest). The stewardship foresters, with the assistance of a new special forest products specialist, (see implementation costs), will together take the lead, to bring this plan to fruition on the southwest Oregon district. They will lead the annual fiscal year metric measuring by conducting load-ticket accounting with biomass slash sales quantities, conducting the stocking and canopy surveys, working collaboratively with protection to conduct the after action burn reports, and working with Mr. K. and Drew Gilliland (OSU Cogeneration Project) to assure supply chain continuity. These division commitments are one of technical and professional support to continue to work with the public to ensure adherence to the timber harvest concepts and strategies which assures the ODF land with accessible and sufficient biomass to sell to the 23 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN developing biomass fuel market. One additional aspect is the fact that each ODF biomass slash harvest site will occur on an active timber sale. Therefore, all National Environmental Protection Act requirements have already been completed. Non-Key Stakeholders The SOU educational outreach are stakeholders in the Center for Sustainability and the Sustainability Council, and represent staff and student sustainability education, training, certification and campus applications. The stakeholder impact is low but the positive influence may develop to be moderate or even high given the environmental consciousness of the community of Ashland, the associated student body that has decided to attend SOU with its green philosophy, and the associated staff who also have made a commitment to teach at a green university. The author attended a SOU Cogeneration Project stakeholder/public meeting at the SOU campus, Stevenson Union, on November 12, 2014, and there was a very strong student body representation in the audience. There was a 30-minute project panel introduction with panelist statements, and a 90-minute question and answer session facilitated by the SOU’s contracted public outreach team. Written question cards were received by the team from approximately 30 of the 36 guests in attendance. The primary theme of the questions revolved around the biomass plant’s combustion process and airborne emissions. Panel member Bill Carlson, the engineer who authored the plant’s feasibility study, responded that the plant will produce the airborne emissions equivalent to 12 fireplaces or 20 woodstoves, and the centrifugally and electrostatically captured ash will be sold as a soil amendment or garden fertilizer. Panel member Ryan Brown, who represented the Sustainability Council, reiterated SOU’s commitment to sustainability throughout its campus facilities and operations complying with the SOU Green Purchasing Policy – FAD.026 (SOU, 2010, green). 24 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Stakeholder Analysis Summary – Table 1 – created by author Stakeholders 1. Oregon Department of Forestry – State Biomass Division Stake / Mandate Potential Role in Project Key? Profitability, Supply Chain, FMP Yes Administrative Concepts & Strategies 2. Oregon Department of Forestry Administrative SWO – Unit Forester FMP Concepts & Strategies Yes 3. Oregon Department of Forestry SWO – Foresters, Wildland Administrative Protection Divisions FMP Concepts & Strategies Yes 4. Southern Oregon University Facilities Division Supply Chain, Administrative Profitability, SOU Green Purchasing Policy Yes 5. SOU Sustainability Council Educational Student Outreach No 6. SOU Center for Sustainability Educational Student Outreach No This concludes the analysis of the identification of the stakeholders and their respective influence and impacts on this sustainability plan. “The following process is an analysis called a SWOT, an acronym for the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats” (Hitchcock & Willard, 2008, p34) of the ODF biomass division in this business plan. Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats (SWOT) 25 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN The SWOT is an analysis of four elements that may affect a business plan proposition, the inherit strengths of the business proposition, its core principals, offering, and resources (natural, physical, intellectual, legal, emotional); the weaknesses in the business proposition that may either prevent it from becoming a reality, flaws in the concept (legal, physical, intellectual), economic-offering dangers, soft/failing market(s); the opportunities that the business plan presents and offers to the stakeholders in reaching profitability, sustainability, and societal goal and strategy fulfillment; and the threats that may prevent plan realization or marginalize plan fulfillment when implemented. The SWOT analysis grid is a graphical representation of these four elements and is displayed in Appendix B. Strengths The Southwest Oregon (SWO) District of the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF) combines the State forestland in the four counties of Josephine, Douglas, Jackson, and Curry Counties. The district holds 18,073 acres of forestland, upon which 307 MMBF (million board feet) of woody biomass stocks the ODF forestlands (ODF-FMP, 2010). Of the available 307 million board feet of woody biomass 2.8 million board feet (ODF-FMP, 2010, p2-27, Table 2.5) are fuel biomass available for harvest and sale according to the Southwest Oregon State Forest Management Plan, Special Forest Products Strategy, page 4-102, 4-103 (ODF-FMP, 2010). This sustainability plan calls for the annual sale of special forest product biomass in the quantity of 21,000 bone dry tons to the Southern Oregon University (SOU) cogeneration plant in Ashland, Oregon. The ODF’s Biomass Specialist has built a partnership with the SOU Cogeneration Project during the previous five years, and is a member of the project panel. The SOU Cogeneration Project Manager and Facilities Division Manager, Drew Gilliland, is sourcing the 26 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN project’s biomass slash fuel needs through ODF Biomass Specialist utilizing the Southern Oregon University Green Purchasing Policy – FAD.026 (SOU, 2010, green). Mr. K. has conducted biomass feedstock studies of the SOU Cogeneration Project and has calculated the annual local harvest at approximately 105,000 bone dry tons (SOU stakeholder/public meeting 11/12/14). The author has conducted face-to-face meetings, dialogued with, briefed, and provided draft capstone material to the State Biomass Specialist (Kauffman) and the SWO Unit Forester (Thorpe) of the sustainability plan (several draft forms) for the previous six months and has the ODF’s consent and permission to write and present a strategic sustainability business plan to them for ODF use (personal communication with Kaufmann 11/12/14 and Thorpe 11/14/14). Weaknesses The SWO ODF has 2.8 million board feet of harvestable biomass upon its four counties 18,073 acres. This is a large quantity of biomass upon the representative acreage, and equals an average stocking level of 155 board feet/acre of hazardous fuel (Woodland, 2009). This is a strength in that it represents an untapped natural capital resource but it also represents a current weakness for the ODF in the form of an existing hazardous fuel that is preventing full realization of goal accomplishment in forest health and wildfire suppression (ODF-FMP, 2010) The existing stocking level of biomass equals an approximate Btu heat release of 11 million Btu’s/acre of extra fuel/acre of forestland. This current biomass overstocking is a present danger to the ecosystems if the forestland is ignited by lightning or human cause. The biomass market has not been a traditionally strong market because biomass is not an energy-dense fuel as compared for instance to coal or petroleum. For this reason, the 27 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN transportation of the fuel is expensive which reduces the profit per bone dry ton, thus much of the biomass generated in a timber sale is not harvested. It is usually either left as a vegetation mat on the surface of the forest or cut and piled in stacks. In both methods, the biomass is known as slash or hog-fuel, or if chipped it is called “dirty-chips” as the bark is a constituent part of the chip. If left as slash it soon dehydrates to a product known as “red-slash” (Fuel Models 12 &13; IFRES, 1982) as the needles dry out and turn red. Red slash is an extremely flammable, hazardous biomass fuel, that is traditionally burned and wasted on-site during the wet winter months when the Btu heat release has a lesser chance to catch the surrounding woods on fire. The SWO ODF resides geographically in several DEQ non-attainment air quality basins. For this reason, the burning of the red slash is strictly enforced by the DEQ through the ODF, US Forest Service, and the BLM. The author has personally witnessed biomass slash treated by forest crews 25 years ago still residing in slash piles, unburned, and acting as an available hazardous biomass fuel for wildland fires. In short, disposing of biomass slash in a useful, sustainable, and revenue generating manner has been a difficult business proposition, thus the current overstocking in the forestlands. Opportunities The opportunities in this business plan for the ODF Biomass Division are numerous. It represents a starting point for the sustainable and intelligent utilization of a current waste stream that multiplies in quantity and hazard potential each year if unaddressed. Use of local biomass slash grants the accomplishment of several Southwest Oregon State Forest Management Plan goals, concepts, and strategies (ODF-FMP, 2010, Ch.4 et.al. 4-201, 4-103). The opportunities are listed as follows: 28 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Utilize existing Southwest Oregon State Forest Management Plan goals, strategies, and concepts for Special Forest Products 4-102, 4-103 to sell biomass slash to the public markets (ODF-FMP, 2010). Utilize existing Southwest Oregon State Forest Management Plan for Special Forest Products item 4-102/4-103 to generate sales revenue to establish an annual biomass slash forestland reduction program for the SWO ODF Unit, thereby funding additional State Plan Strategies of Integrated Forest Management for Landscape Management-Structure Based Management (SBM) 4-43/4-45, Aquatic and Riparian Conservation 4-57, and Forest Health 4-75 (ODF-FMP, 2010). Create a custom annual-sales customer-market, sized to ODF Southwest Oregon Unit production capabilities for biomass slash (Markus Kaufmann personal conversation 11/12/14 biomass feedstock study; ODF-FMP, 2010). Create a new partnership with the DOD Veterans Affairs Southwest Oregon Rehabilitation Center campus in White City Oregon to create a cogeneration biomass-fueled power and heat facility (USDVA, 2014) and provide biomass fuel. Develop partnerships with Southern Oregon Forest Restoration Collaborative, Southern Oregon Land Conservancy, and the National Wildfire Suppression Association to educate and extend the concept to private woodlot owners (less than 40-acre parcels) and to employ local citizens (4 county area) as the labor pool (NWSA, 2014; ODF-FMP, 2010; SOFRC, 2014; SOLC, 2014). Incorporate Southern Oregon University students and faculty through the SOU Sustainability Council and Sustainability Center, through SWO ODF Unit stewardship foresters, to provide internship or practicum experiences in sustainable forestry/renewable energy training opportunities (SOU, 2014 sustainability council; SOU, 2014, sustainability center). Threats The literature review provides evidence of the overstocking of accumulated biomass (OSU, 2004, report; U of O, 2008, dry forest zone) and the rationale of management (Costanza, 29 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN 2006; Dedrick, 20103; Greenfire, 2008; Medford BLM, 2008) of the hazardous biomass slash from the State forestlands. There has historically been little to no market value for biomass slash sales (ODF Biomass Specialist SOU Cogeneration Project stakeholder/public meeting at SOU campus 11/12/14. Employing the correct methodology/vehicle to create a viable and stable market for biomass slash sales has been unfocused. This business plan refocuses the SWO ODF to utilize the existing but underutilized Special Forest Products strategy (SWO-FMP, 2010, Ch.4 et.al. 4-102, 4-103) to enable the fulfillment of the legislation to create a commodity market for sales to the public of biomass slash. The threats to the business plan success are the overdevelopment of this local niche market or the consumption of the biomass by wildfire. The ODF has completed feedstock surveys (Mr. K. SOU Cogeneration Project stakeholder/public meeting SOU campus 11/12/14) that indicate that five times the required sales amount to SOU of 21,000 bone dry tons per year (21,000 x 5 = 105,000 BDT/year), is available for harvest within 30 miles of the SOU facility. The SOU cogeneration plant will not require more biomass slash than the 21k BDT unless it replaced its two other existing natural gas boilers with two additional biomass boilers, but that would still not overtax the supply at 42k BDT/year. If the SWO-ODF developed a partnership with the local Veterans Affairs Rehabilitation Facility in White City Oregon and they also built a cogeneration facility, it would probably not be any larger than the SOU facility as their campus size and population are comparable. Selling an additional 21k BDT to 42k BDT per year to the Veterans Affairs would not foreseeably exhaust the supply chain of available local biomass slash. Additional local cogeneration plant development beyond those consuming roughly 100,000 BDT/year would exhaust the local supply chain and would create market failures for the cogeneration plants and the SWO ODF. The second threat to the business plan is the consumption of the accumulated biomass slash by wildfire. This may occur in two ways, through wildfire burning unharvested timber units and thus the slash in its raw form, or through loss of control of prescribed burns meant to consume neighboring timber unit slash on federal land or private timber lands. With the present accumulation of overstocked biomass (Medford BLM, 2008; OSU, 2004, report) this is a very real and present danger. Wildfire consumed biomass slash, if in great enough quantities would also cause market failure for the cogeneration plants and the SWO ODF. 30 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN The stable market to be created is in its infancy, but it has begun with the partnership with the SOU Cogeneration Project (SOU, 2014, cogeneration). Growing the biomass sales program too big/fast will not work for the SWO ODF Special Forest Products sales strategy (ODF-FMP, 2010), as the markets for biomass slash are limited and niche in southwest Oregon. Also, wildfire pre-suppression and suppression activities must continue to take place in the SWO ODF with current or possibly temporary increased activity (10+ years) to protect the biomass and until the reduction of biomass on a landscape scale is implemented on not just ODF lands but on adjacent federal and private forestlands Care must be exercised to match the capacity and productivity of the land to the harvested biomass slash quantities. In this way, a local sustainable biomass fuels market may be established in a self-supporting and on-going business model. Business Model Canvas The business model definition as provided by Osterwalder & Pigneur (2010) states “A business model describes the rationale of how an organization creates, delivers, and captures value” (Osterwalder & Pigneur, 2010, pg.14). The business model canvas (BMC) therefore provides a visual depiction, like a painting/persistent object, that makes the business model tangible and shifts discussion from abstract to concrete by depicting the business model’s nine building blocks: “(1) customer segments, (2) value proposition, (3) channels, (4) customer relationships, (5) revenue streams, (6) key resources, (7) key activities, (8) key partnerships, and (9) cost structure” (Osterwalder & Pigneur, 2010, pg.16-17). The author has taken the business model representing this strategic sustainability plan for the Oregon Department of Forestry, Biomass Division, and discussed and analyzed it in its nine interconnected vectors/building blocks and their interrelationships. The business model canvas is represented in graphical form in Appendix C. This BMC is multiple-epicenter driven (Osterwalder & Pigneur, 2010); it is resourcedriven in the fact that the ODF’s offering is from within its existing infrastructure but an as yet 31 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN unutilized/underutilized resource (biomass slash); it is offer-driven in that it offers a value proposition that is owned and ‘on the books’ but not being utilized (it’s usually being burned); and it is finance-driven in that it offers a new revenue stream (biomass sales to public) by activating a seldom used special forest product strategy that is already in the SWO ODF forest plan (ODF-FMP, 2010). Customer Segment The customer segment for this strategic sustainability plan for the ODF is a niche market of the Southern Oregon University Cogeneration Project (2014) in Ashland, Oregon. The project is a 2KW biomass slash fueled steam turbine that produces both electricity and steam heat for the campus. SOU will be the first Special Forest Products customer that the ODF has provided biomass slash fuel to. Enabled by a new 2010 Southwest Oregon State Forest Management Plan, Chapter 4 Resource Management Concepts and Strategies, Landscape Management Goal, Strategy for Specific Resources, Special Forest Products Strategy 4-102/4-103, [1a, 1b, 1c, 2a, 2b, 2c, 2d] (ODF-FMP, 2010) introduction states, in part… “The following strategies have been developed to fulfill the vision that special forest products will be managed as a viable commodity program” (ODF-FMP, 2010, pg.4-102-103). This strategy will permit the sale of biomass slash to a customer segment as a commodity, in this case the public university of Southern Oregon University’s cogeneration plant. Value Proposition The value proposition for this strategic sustainability plan for the ODF will be to provide cheap biomass slash fuel to the local southwest Oregon public as a commodity. Enabled by the new 2010 Southwest Oregon State Forest Management Plan, Chapter 4, Resource Management 32 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Concepts and Strategies, Landscape Management Goal, Strategy for Specific Resources, Special Forest Products Strategy 4-102/4-103, [1a, 1b, 1c, 2a, 2b, 2c, 2d] (ODF-FMP, 2010). Current waste stream of biomass slash to be sold to the SOU Cogeneration Project (2014) at the rate of 21,000 bone dry tons (BDT) annually at a fixed price of $35/BDT for an annual revenue of $735,000 (ODF Biomass Specialist SOU panelist at stakeholder meeting SOU campus 11/12/14). Channels The channels for this strategic sustainability plan for the ODF are the partnership between the ODF biomass division and the SOU Cogeneration Project for the sales and purchase of the biomass slash, respectively, and the relationship within ODF of its biomass division, stewardship foresters, and wildland protection supervisors for the actual implementation of the plan’s goals and objectives; for them to actually carry out the management of biomass on the ground over an extended period of time according to and fulfilling the forest plan’s strategies. The success of the implementation of this sustainability plan is contingent upon these channels functioning effectively and efficiently over the lifecycle of the SOU cogeneration plant, or until the ODF has created another appropriately sized customer segment niche and associated channel (perhaps the White City, Oregon, Veteran’s Affairs Rehabilitation Center campus). Customer Relationships The external customer relationships for this strategic sustainability plan for the ODF is based on personal assistance and an ongoing professional relationship (finance driven epicenter) between the SOU Cogeneration Project’s manager Drew Gilliland and the southwest Oregon ODF Unit’s Forester, the Unit’s Protection Supervisor’s, and the author’s client/sponsor ODF 33 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Biomass Specialist. Extensions of this business plan could include developing additional niche customer segments such as with the Veterans Affairs Rehabilitation Center campus with a personal assistance relationship to develop a similar cogeneration facility. The internal customer relationships that exist and are also key to success are within the ODF infrastructure of the stewardship foresters (resource driven epicenter), who will be carrying the majority of the burden of plan implementation, annual measurement and monitoring of the goals and objectives, and their working relationships with the biomass division and the wildland fire protection supervisors to implement the biomass slash raw material sales process in the offer-driven epicenter. Revenue Streams The revenue stream for this strategic sustainability plan for the ODF is exclusively biomass slash sales revenue, as authorized to “be managed as a viable commodity program” (ODF-FMP, 2010, pg.4-102) by the 2010 Southwest Oregon State Forest Management Plan, Chapter 4 Resource Management Concepts and Strategies, Special Forest Products Strategy, pages 4-102, 4-103 (ODF-FMP, 2010); additionally, biomass slash as authorized to be purchased by Southern Oregon University Green Purchasing Policy – FAD.026, Items [1h, 5a, 5b, 8a] (SOU, 2010, green). The calculated ODF revenue for this business plan is $735,000 annually; from the sale of 21,000 bone dry tons of biomass for $35 per ton to the SOU cogeneration plant. Key Resources Key resources for this strategic sustainability plan for the ODF are the natural capital item of biomass slash; the human capital of the ODF’s ODF Biomass Specialist (facilitated acquisition of biomass), SWO ODF Unit Forester (administration of acquisition and sales of Special Forest Products), SWO ODF Unit Stewardship Foresters (field implementation of plan), 34 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN SWO ODF Protection Supervisors (field implementation of plan), and SOU’s Drew Gilliland (administration of purchase of biomass slash by SOU Cogeneration Project); and the intellectual capital of the ODF Southwest Oregon State Forest Management Plan (2010) and the SOU Green Purchasing Policy-FAD.026 (2010). Key Activities Key activities for this strategic sustainability plan for the ODF will be the facilitation, acquisition, coordination, and sales per Special Forest Product Strategy (ODF-FMP, 2010, 4-102, 4-103) of the biomass slash by SWO ODF stewardship foresters. The biomass slash will be accumulated on southwest Oregon timber harvest and thinning operations as inspected and managed by the stewardship foresters; per Landscape Management, Structure Based Management, Aquatic and Riparian Conservation, and Forest Health Strategies as contained in the 2010 Southwest Oregon State Forest Management Plan, Chapter 4 Resource Management Concepts and Strategies (ODF-FMP, 2010). Key Partnerships Key partnerships for this strategic sustainability plan for the ODF are; continue the existing partnership between Mr. K. and Drew Gilliland, SOU Cogeneration Project Manager and Facility Division Manager, and develop a relationship through Mr. K. between SWO ODF Administration and Stewardship Foresters and Drew Gilliland. Continuance and strengthening of this partnership will reduce risk and uncertainty in both the consistent sales and steady annual acquisition of the biomass slash fuel, which will create an optimized economy of scale for both parties (Osterwalder & Pigneur, 2010). Cost Structure 35 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN The administrative cost structure for the strategic sustainability plan for the ODF to implement will utilize the existing ODF and SWO ODF personnel that fill the existing stakeholder positions of Biomass Coordinator (1 position), Unit Forester (1 position), Stewardship Forester (3 positions), and Wildland Supervisors (2 positions). The product cost structure for the strategic sustainability plan for the ODF will utilize a fixed cost structure for the product cost of biomass slash sales per bone dry ton (ODF-FMP, 2010; Osterwalder & Pigneur, 2010) to the SOU cogeneration plant facility in Ashland, Oregon (ODF Biomass Specialist SOU stakeholder/public meeting SOU campus 11/12/14.) The visual canvas graphic to display the business model canvas for this strategic sustainability plan is displayed in Appendix C. Strategic Sustainability Plan The supporting research in the literature review, the identification of the Oregon Department of Forestry’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats to implementation; the analysis of who the stakeholders are and what they can and cannot do to create a successful implementation; and the identification, analysis, and synchronization of the business model’s nine building blocks; together tell a story, paint a picture, and provide a salient argument that this strategic sustainability plan is viable, and has utility for the Oregon Department of Forestry to make its own through the triple bottom line framework. The overarching essence of this plan is to conserve ecosystem services from compromise by wildfire through the management of accumulated forest biomass. The following strategies, goals, objectives, and metrics in this section provide the framework, rationale, methods, and confirmation for the business plan’s implementation within the Oregon Department of Forestry, Biomass Division and the Southwest Oregon Unit. 36 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Oregon Department of Forestry Mission Statement “To serve the people of Oregon by protecting, managing and promoting stewardship of Oregon's forests to enhance environmental, economic, and community sustainability” (ODF, 2014, about us). Goals and Objectives The goals and objectives herein, to manage the forestland ecosystems and conserve them from wildfire consumption through the management of biomass fuel, have been formulated and are recommended for implementation by the author. The goals and objectives represent application of the ODF’s adherence to the triple bottom line framework of managing the state forests for economic, environmental, and social values surrounding Oregon forest resources (ODF, 2009, roundtable). After careful analysis of the information gathered and presented in the literature review, review and analysis of the Southwest Oregon State Forest Management Plan (2010), empirical evidence gathered while working for the ODF during fire season 2014, and a 25 year career in natural resource management, the author presents the following goals, objectives, and metrics for the ODF to implement in this strategic sustainability business plan. SWO-ODF to use special forest products strategy in the sale of biomass slash to SOU Cogeneration Project. Goal 1. SWO-ODF to implement in 2017 the provision of the sale of biomass slash to SOU cogeneration plant per SWO forest plan Chapter 4, special forest products strategy 4-102, 4-103. Currently, the provision exists in the SWO-ODF forest plan for the sale of special forest products to be managed as a viable commodity program; to implement a structured program of biomass slash sales within this provision, to SOU and the public, is the goal submitted. 37 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Objective 1.1. SWO-ODF to continue to move forward with its partnership with the SOU Cogeneration Project and their intention to sell 21,000 bone dry tons/year of biomass fuel to SOU. Objective 1.2. SWO-ODF to conduct an annual inventory of accumulated biomass slash available for public sale. Objective 1.3. SWO-ODF to further develop the load-ticket/sales revenue manual to annually update the statewide pricing list for special forest products to ensure products are selling at optimum commodity price to ensure maximization of market(s). Metric to measure Goal 1, objectives 1.1, 1.2, 1.3 - Utilize the Special Forest Products Strategy, manage special forest product strategies as a viable commodity program, Chapter 4, Special Forest Products Strategy 4-102, 4-103, and Forestry Department Annual Performance Progress Report, “Key Performance Measure #14 – Forest Biomass Utilization - Million bonedry tons of forest biomass converted to biofuels, electricity or steam” (ODF, 2013, appr p63). Stewardship Foresters to complete the annual fiscal year Performance Progress Accomplishment Report (APPR; APPR, 2013) for the SWO unit that includes tracking and recordation of biomass slash sales volume and revenue generation. The initial Measure #14 APPR for fiscal year 2017 will measure against a current SWO unit baseline of biomass slash sales of zero quantity and zero revenues. After the initial fiscal year analysis of the 2017 Fiscal year, the APPR will use the previous year report as a baseline. Foresters to utilize the existing ODF forest management plan processes in the load accountability system for special forest products load-tickets and sales revenue tracking. This utilizes the statewide pricing list for special forest products as tied to loadtickets (ODF-FMP, 2010). SWO Report to analyze trends in biomass sales and to calculate fiscal 38 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN year annual sales as a percentage of the annual, available, 105,000 bone dry ton inventory (Kauffman, 2014, SOU public meeting 11/12/14). Annual sales calculations to be monitored and adjusted to maintain an on-going sustainable inventory of raw material to meet operational considerations of unit’s forest management plan Concepts and Strategies for biomass slash, as identified by the ODF team of Unit Forester, Biomass Specialist, Stewardship Foresters, and Wildland Protection Supervisors. An expansion of this goal would be to open sales of biomass slash to small-scale personal use permits similar to current fire wood permit load tickets. This would enhance the sales revenue for the SWO, provide low cost biomass heating fuel to the public in an economically depressed region of rural Oregon, and would assist to clean-up and remove biomass slash from especially difficult (steep, remote, thicket) logging harvest units to prepare the units for fire resilient tree replanting operations (American Softwoods, 2014). SWO-ODF to manage alternative vegetation treatment strategies to change the vegetative community. Goal 2. SWO-ODF to introduce biomass slash thinning/removal of hardwood in hardwood stands in fiscal year 2017, create gaps to increase recruitment of fire tolerant softwood species (western larch, lodgepole pine, sugar pine, ponderosa pine; American Softwoods, 2014). Current dense hardwood stands serve as ‘jackpots’, thickets of high-Btu release energy-dense hardwood fuels that can adversely affect properly functioning aquatic habitat conditions. Objective 2.1. SWO-ODF to use biomass slash thinning as a tool to create fuel-gaps in hardwood stands to reduce the Btu heat release in wildfires or prescribed burning to prevent soil sterilization thus conserve ecosystem services of soil formation, water filtration/hydrological 39 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN services, and reduce erosion and sedimentation yields to indigenous salmonid riparian systems, wetlands, and estuaries. Objective 2.2. SWO-ODF to optimize unique Oregon hardwood slash wood as an additional special forest product commodity for existing Oregon niche markets (Ashland & Portland) of wine barrels (Oregon white oak), food-processing to smoke meats (hickory, alder, maple, oak) veneer or frames for high-end furniture (black oak, red alder, black walnut, Oregon ash, bigleaf maple), and hardwood leaves (Oregon myrtle) for specialty food preparation. Metric to measure Goal 2, objectives 2.1, 2.2 - Utilizing the Aquatic and Riparian Strategy 4, manage alternative vegetation treatment strategies to change the vegetative community, Chapter 4, Aquatic and Riparian Strategy 4, 4-66, 4-67 (ODF-FMP, 2010). Stewardship Foresters are to complete an SWO unit, basin-level hardwood-stand vegetation inventory in 2016, before biomass removal to create a baseline, and then annually, each fiscal year, after biomass removal treatments of the hardwood stands. The comparative measured changes in vegetative community tree species will determine if the changes are effective in producing properly functioning aquatic habitat conditions, according to the aquatic and riparian strategy 4 of the SWO forest plan. An extension of this goal would be to open and sell exclusive hardwood tree harvesting permits with load tickets to the public. This would assist the Foresters to reduce thick hardwood stands that are not in a logging harvest unit, but pose a significant risk of wildfire in the wildland Urban Interface (WUI) zones. The Foresters and the Wildland Protection Supervisors would conduct wildland fire pre-suppression planning of WUI hazard zones near significant historic structures or near significant infrastructure facilities (natural gas pumping stations, electricity 40 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN power stations, municipal water system pump intakes, fish hatcheries, campgrounds). The SWO ODF would then mark the hazard hardwood trees for harvest and sell local permits with load tickets to the public for the specifically targeted small-sale units. SWO-ODF to use Forest Health Strategy 2; manage the forest to minimize unwanted fire. Goal 3. SWO-ODF to maximize revenue and ecosystem benefit prior to prescribed burning; conduct biomass slash removal activities in fiscal year 2017 to reduce hazardous fuel loading and improve forest health. Implement the sale of biomass special forest products, per forest plan sold as a commodity. Objective 3.1. SWO-ODF to conduct mechanical thinning operations of biomass slash removal on southwest Oregon forestland and sell it as a special forest product prior to prescription burning. Objective 3.2. SWO-ODF to monitor all fuel treatment areas for long-range biomass slash treatments followed by low intensity prescribed burning. Objective 3.3. SWO-ODF to encourage stand structure diversity in the vegetative community and create fuel breaks and fuel modifications to conserve state forestland ecosystems from wildfire. Objective 3.4. SWO-ODF to cooperate and coordinate with adjacent federal and private forest landowners to create a connected system of vegetative structure diversity, fuel breaks, and fuel modifications to conserve ecosystems from wildfire. Metric to measure Goal 3, objectives 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4 - Utilizing the Forest Health Strategies 1-7, manage the forest to minimize unwanted fire et.al., Chapter 4 Forest Health 41 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Strategies, 4-75-4-78 (ODF-FMP, 2010), Stewardship Foresters and Protection Supervisors to complete standardized vegetation stocking level surveys and canopy coverage surveys of each selected treatment unit, beginning in fiscal year 2016, before and after both biomass slash removal, and secondary low intensity burning. Comparative measurements of the quantity (tons per acre) of biomass removed and reduction of canopy cover (percentage) per acre, before and after treatments, are utilized to calculate Btu-reduction in fire severity and intensity per acre and per treatment unit. Stewardship Foresters to conduct standard accounting for treatment unit’s load-tickets and associated sales revenue of removed and sold biomass slash per KPM #14 Forestry Department Annual Performance Progress Report (2013). SWO-ODF to manage for Soils Strategy, manage quantities of organic material in the soil, duff and litter, Chapter 4, Soils Strategy, 4-100, 4-101 (ODF-FMP, 2010). Goal 4. SWO-ODF to balance the amount of biomass slash remaining on harvest units, beginning in fiscal year 2018, with both the consideration of its contribution to soil fertility and its distribution and composition as a hazardous fuel. Objective 4.1. SWO-ODF to integrate harvest operations of biomass slash with the integrated management strategies of the Oregon Forest Practices Act to protect ecosystem services by minimizing soil disturbance and deterioration, protecting long-term soil productivity and hydrologic function, while reducing the amount and distribution of biomass slash to facilitate low-intensity prescribed burns. Objective 4.2. SWO-ODF to ensure that detailed presale plan reports and written plans for riparian management areas, implement specific strategies as contained in the ODF forest 42 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN management plan (2010), recognize the importance of maintaining organic materials in the soil to include an optimum mixture of decaying biomass. Metric to measure Goal 4, objectives 4.1, 4.2 - Utilizing the Soils Strategy, manage quantities of organic material in the soil, duff and litter, Chapter 4, Soils Strategy, 4-100, 4-101 (ODF-FMP, 2010). Stewardship Foresters and Protection Supervisors to complete standard operating procedure after action reviews (AAR) of prescribed burns in select biomass slash harvested unit. Anticipated to begin prescription low-intensity surface burns in 2018 of biomass harvested units. These reports will be compared to each non biomass slash harvested, plain prescription-burned post-harvest unit, to determine comparative percent of biomass consumed, soil-horizon composition, percent of unit available for replanting, and percent of canopy cover. This will determine if the harvest presale plan reports, and riparian management plans, goals and objectives were achieved to retain, build, and maintain proper soil complexity and fertility. An extension of this goal would be to substitute a mechanical masticator in the place of low-intensity prescription burning after biomass slash harvesting of units. According to the California Fire Science Consortium (2014), to create resilient forest ecosystems a variety of treatment methods are to be utilized in the treatment of forestland. Biomass removal, biomass slash removal, biomass slash burning, biomass removal with burning, biomass slash removal with burning, prescription burning of biomass, biomass removal with mastication, and biomass slash removal with mastication, all represent valid methods of forestland biomass management to create diverse vegetation communities with fire resilient characteristics. Implementation Timeline 43 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN The implementation timeline for this strategic sustainability business plan is presented in graphic form below. The implementation of biomass sales to SOU represents a long-term business relationship. The plan will be implemented, and metrics measured annually for the 50 operational years of the cogeneration plant. The timeline started in 2013 with the establishment of a formal partnership between ODF and SOU Cogeneration Project, and the persons of Mr. K. and SOU’s Drew Gilliland Facilities Division Manager. The sale and delivery of the biomass slash are contingent upon the operational start date of the SOU cogeneration plant. A funding request for $12 million has been sent by SOU to the Oregon Legislature, which is scheduled for design and build in early 2016, and completion, with a start of operations in early 2017. The triple functions of (1) facility start date, (2) biomass fuel delivery date, and the (3) goal and objective initiation will begin on the same date in early 2017. Each year-anniversary thereafter for the 50-year operational lifecycle of the cogeneration plant, through to 2067, the SWO-ODF will utilize the metrics to measure the goals and objectives. The measurements will delineate their effectiveness, if economies are being realized, and the adjustment(s) necessary to the goals and objectives to best meet the SWO-ODF state forest management plan (2010) to conserve ecosystem services through the integrated management approach of economic, environmental, and social value creation. 44 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Implementation Timeline Formal ODF Agreement to Provide Biomass Fuel to SOU Cogenplant 2014 2015 Partnership between SOU & ODF to provide feedstock biomass fuel 2016 SOU Submit Funding Request to Legislature $12 Million for Plant SWO-ODF Begin Delivery to SOU Cogenplant of Biomass Fuel 2017 SOU Plant Final Design, Bid Process, Construction Begins on Cogenplant SWO-ODF Begin to Implement Business Plan Goals & Objectives 2018 SWO-ODF Complete Annual Metric Measurement Goals & Objectives 2019 2020 SWO-ODF Complete Second Annual Metric Measurement Goals & Objectives Revise & Proceed 2030 SWO-ODF Continues Annual Metric Measurement Goals & Objectives & Revise Annually to 50 Year Facility LIfecycle 2040 2050 2060 2070 Begin Operations New SOU Cogenplant Online Implementation timeline. Figure 1 created by the author. Implementation Costs The implementation costs to fund the position(s) necessary to facilitate the special forests products sales in the SWO ODF Unit were not calculated by Chapter 4 Special Forest Products Strategy, pages 4-102 and 4-103. However, the forest plan does discuss that a manual must be developed with the plan to guide special forest products sales (ODF-FMP, 2010). The manual to be developed “will contain all of the guidance needed to offer sales and personal use permits” (ODF-FMP, 2010, 4-103) Examples given include “procedures for competitive bidding or negotiated sales, contractual considerations, pricing guidelines, accountability guidelines, develop a state-wide pricing list for all known special forest products, harvesting procedures and seasons, cultural requirements, and the sustainability of the resource(s)” (ODF-FMP, 2010, p.4- 45 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN 103). The author’s 25 years experience in natural resources (civil engineer and wildland firefighter) estimates that this level and quantity of work could initially be handled by one permanent full time employee functioning at the stewardship forester level (SimplyHired.com, 2014) for an annual salary of $54,000 per year. If this program extends beyond the SWO ODF unit, the actual quantity of work encountered per ODF administrative unit would determine if one biomass sales coordinator position per geographical unit is necessary. Monitoring, Evaluating, and Revising Sustainability Performance This strategic sustainability business plan has a 50-year lifecycle. The author utilized the planning philosophy of The Natural Step’s (2014) process of backcasting to the desired end state goals of fire resilient ecosystems, then working back to the present in iterative steps, or objectives. The plan’s objectives are achievable, reachable, and iterative action steps that lead back to the present, a pathway leading backward and forward, measured by metrics for achievability. After initial implementation in 2017, the four goal’s annual fiscal year metric measurement results will determine iterative adjustments to the objectives as the 50-year lifecycle of the plan unfolds. Annually, at the end of each fiscal year, the SWO ODF will conduct an analysis of the four goals and their objectives with the following metrics to measure the products of the objectives. These analyses will produce tangible measurements to determine the degree of goal and objective accomplishment. At that time, the author anticipates that the goals and objectives will be updated, rearranged, and revised to suit the ODF stewardship forester’s standard operating protocols and to more closely align with specific SWO ODF operational conditions. The following metrics are designed to permit measurement of the four goals and their objectives. 46 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Metric to measure Goal 1, objectives 1.1, 1.2, 1.3. In coordination with the start of operations of the SOU cogeneration plant, projected for early 2017, Stewardship Foresters will complete the annual Performance Progress Accomplishment Report (Key Performance Measure #14 Forest Biomass Utilization; ODF, 2013, APPR) for the SWO ODF unit. The APPR tracks and records the unit’s biomass slash sales volume and revenue generation. The APPR will utilize the statewide pricing list for special forest products as tied to load-tickets (ODF-FMP, 2010). The SWO will utilize the APPR data to calculate biomass slash sales trends and to calculate fiscal year annual sales as a percentage of the available annual 105,000 bone dry ton inventory. Biomass slash sales will be monitored and adjusted by SWO to maintain an on-going sustainable inventory to meet operational requirements of SWO ODF and SOU. Metric to measure Goal 2, objectives 1.1, 1.2. In anticipation of the start of operations of the SOU cogeneration plant in early 2017, Stewardship Foresters are to complete in 2016 a baseline basin-level hardwood-stand inventory of the SWO ODF unit. After the initial baseline inventory, an annual end of fiscal year inventory of the SWO ODF unit’s hardwood-stands will be completed to measure the percentage change in tree species in the vegetative community that has been produced by the removal of hardwood biomass slash. The measured changes in vegetative community tree species will determine if the changes are effective in producing properly functioning aquatic habitat conditions, according to the aquatic and riparian strategy 4 of the SWO forest plan. Metric to measure Goal 3, objectives 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4 – In anticipation of the start of operations of the SOU cogeneration plant in early 2017, Stewardship Foresters and Protection Supervisors will complete, beginning in 2016, standard ODF vegetation stocking level surveys and canopy coverage surveys of each planned and selected treatment unit. At the conclusion of 47 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN each fiscal year, biomass treated units will receive a vegetation stocking survey and canopy coverage survey. Comparative measurements of the quantity (tons per acre) of biomass removed and reduction of canopy cover (percentage) per acre (before and after removal) will be calculated to determine Btu-fuel-reduction in fire severity and intensity per acre, and per treatment unit. Stewardship Foresters to conduct standard accounting for treatment units load-tickets and associated sales revenue of removed and sold biomass slash per KPM #14 Forestry Department Annual Performance Progress Report (2013). Metric to measure Goal 4, objectives 4.1, 4.2 Anticipated to begin in 2018, after the first year of biomass slash sales to the SOU cogeneration plant, Stewardship Foresters and Protection Supervisors to annually complete standard operating procedure of after action reviews (AAR) of prescribed burns in selected post biomass slash harvested units. Burn result report measurements will be compared to each non biomass slash harvested, plain prescription-burned post-harvest unit, to determine comparative percent of biomass consumed, soil-horizon composition, percent of unit available for replanting, and percent of canopy cover. This will determine if the harvest presale plan reports, and riparian management plans, goals and objectives were achieved to retain, build, and maintain proper soil complexity and fertility. Conclusion, Recommendation, and implementation Conclusion It is the conclusion of the author that the Oregon Department of Forestry should develop partnerships with an appropriate number of local biomass slash combusting cogeneration plants that will place the ODF, and the partners, in a decades-long-term, steady, financially solvent business plan relationship. Right-sizing the quantity harvested with the sustainability of the land 48 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN is critical to a successful implementation of this, or any, sustainability business plan. When the ODF implements an aggressive balanced sustainability forest plan, it should provide the additional revenue to the local unit biomass management plan (forest plan), as it is called to be comprehensively implemented by numerous concepts and strategies (integrated forest management, landscape management, aquatic & riparian, forest health, special forest products) that are currently primarily unfunded. Recommendation The author recommends that the Oregon Department of Forestry should accept and utilize this strategic sustainability plan to assist it in more fully implementing the concepts and strategies in its Southwest Oregon State Forest Management Plan (2010). This will permit the SWO ODF to place more emphasis in the conservation of ecosystem services and ecosystem goods. The valuation of ecosystem services has been discussed and analyzed for nearly 25 years (Costanza, 1992). The validity of placing an economic value in dollars and cents upon the foundational ecosystem services provided by nature is accepted (Costanza, 1992, 1997, 2006; Dedrick, 2013; Greenfire, 2008; Mates, 2006) and should be developed as an ODF forest management plan strategy. Conserving ecosystems and their services through biomass management is far less expensive to implement (Dedrick, 2013; Greenfire, 2008) as a proactive land management strategy, at an average cost of $837/acre, than the current reactive land management strategy of fire suppression at an average cost of $2,250/acre (rehabilitation of ecosystems not included). Biomass has a hard time paying for its way out of the woods. It depends on the value conferred on the raw material by the market, which is determined by the value the market pays 49 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN for the finished product. This business plan deals with the least valued and least market desirable form of biomass, logging harvest slash. Traditional wisdom says that the slash has one purpose, that of being gathered on-site and burned. This business plan proposes to use the slash as a fuel to power a steam turbine cogeneration plant (SOU, 2014, cogeneration) that creates heat and electricity for Southern Oregon University in Ashland Oregon. It also proposes to use the hardwood slash as a raw material for exotic custom furniture, cabinetry, flooring, and its leaves, for specialty cooking spices. These are called special forest products by the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF-FMP, 2010). Implementation Implementing this strategic sustainability business plan step-by-step, per the timeline, is the author’s recommendation to the Oregon Department of Forestry. This plan advocates the harvest and sales of what is currently waste biomass slash, to the Southern Oregon University’s new biomass slash fueled cogeneration facility. The cogeneration plant will require 21,000 bone dry tons of biomass annually beginning in 2017, and thereafter for the next 50 years. The SWO ODF is in a position to facilitate this biomass sale to the SOU plant for $35 per bone dry ton. The annual sales revenue calculates to approximately $735,000. Projected annual sales revenue is anticipated to sufficiently fund the Southwest Oregon Department of Forestry’s implementation of the goals, objectives, and metrics listed herein. To conduct the operation of a biomass sales program that facilitates the forest plan concepts and strategies of (1) special forest products, (2) aquatic and riparian strategy, (3) forest health strategy, and (4) soils strategy (ODF-FMP, 2010); all the while removing hazardous biomass fuel from the southwest Oregon forestlands and conserving its ecosystem services from wildfire. 50 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN References Always Remember (2014). 1994 07/06 CO South Canyon/Storm King. 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Retrieved from website http://www.oregon.gov/odf/docs/appr.pdf Oregon Department of Forestry (2014). About us. Retrieved from website http://www.oregon.gov/odf/Pages/about_us.aspx Oregon Department of Forestry (2014). Forest management plans. Retrieved from website http://www.oregon.gov/odf/pages/state_forests/forest_management_plans.aspx Oregon Department of Forestry (2014). SWO Protection from fire program. Retrieved from website http://www.oregon.gov/odf/pages/fire/fire_protection.aspx Oregon Department of Forestry (2009). Roundtable on sustainable forest management subgroup meeting. Retrieved from website http://www.oregon.gov/odf/indicators/docs/agenda_060109.pdf Oregon Department of Forestry (2010). Southwest Oregon state forest management plan – resource management concepts and strategies, April 2010. Retrieved from website http://www.oregon.gov/odf/state_forests/docs/management/swfmp/sw_fmp_revised_april _2010_combined.pdf 53 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Oregon State University (2004). Report of the forest fuels and hazard mitigation committee to the Oregon department of forestry, Oregon fire program review. Submitted by the Forest Fuels and Hazard Mitigation Committee, December 10, 2004, prepared by: Institute for Natural Resources. Retrieved from website http://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/docs/forestfuelsgrp.pdf Osterwalder, A., Pigneur, Y. (2010). Business model generation, Hoboken New Jersey, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Randall, C. (n.d.). Fire in the wildland-urban interface: understanding fire behavior. Retrieved from website http://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/factsheet/pdf/fire-understanding.pdf Rocky Mountain Research Station (2011). How to generate and interpret fire characteristics charts for surface and crown fire behavior, Patricia L. Andrews, Faith Ann Heinsch, and Luke Schelvan, General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-253March 2011. Retrieved from website http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs/rmrs_gtr253.pdf Science for Nature and People (2014). Snap is. Retrieved from website http://www.snap.is/about/ SimplyHired.com (2014). Stewardship Forester salary. Retrieved from website http://www.simplyhired.com/salaries-k-stewardship-forester-located-jobs.html Southern Oregon Forest Restoration Collaborative (2014). Forest restoration collaborative. Retrieved from website http://extension.oregonstate.edu/sorec/SO-Collaborative Southern Oregon Land Conservancy (2014). Connecting people, nature, community. Retrieved from website http://www.landconserve.org/ Southern Oregon University (2014). Southern Oregon University cogeneration project. Retrieved from website http://www.soucogeneration.org/ 54 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Southern Oregon University (2010). Green purchasing policy – FAD.026, approved by President, Finance & Administration, April 21, 2010. Retrieved from website http://www.sou.edu/assets/policies/docs/Green-purchasing-policy.pdf Southern Oregon University (2014). SOU center for sustainability. Retrieved from website https://sou.edu/sustainable/center-for-sustainability/index.html Southern Oregon University (2014). SOU sustainability council. Retrieved from website https://sou.edu/sustainable/center-for-sustainability/index.html University of Oregon (2010). The dry forest zone project, Institute for a Sustainable Environment, Ecosystem Workforce Program, Eugene Oregon. Retrieved from website http://ewp.uoregon.edu/research/dfz U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (2014). Southern Oregon rehabilitation center. Retrieved from website http://www1.va.gov/directory/guide/facility.asp?ID=146 Wu, T; Kim, Y-S; Hurteau, M (2011). Investing in natural capital: using economic incentives to overcome barriers to forest restoration. Opinion Article, Restoration Ecology, (Vol.19, No. 4), 441-445. 55 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Appendix A – Stakeholder Influence and Impact Stakeholder Influence & Impact Stakeholders, ODF Admin - High Influence/High Impact, 6 Stakeholders, ODF & SOU PartnershipHigh Influence/High Impact, 2 Stakeholders, SOU Ed Outreach - Low Influence/LowHigh Impact, 2 ODF & SOU PartnershipHigh Influence/High Impact SOU Ed Outreach - Low Influence/Low-High Impact ODF Admin - High Influence/High Impact 56 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Appendix B - SWOT Analysis Grid Strengths Weaknesses Internal - What ODF does well? Internal - What could ODF improve? ODF has existing partnership SOU. What unique resources can you draw on? ODF has existing forest plans with Special Forest (biomass) What do others seeProducts as your strengths? goals, strategies, and concepts. ODF may lose biomass to fire. Where do you have fewer resources than ODF improve biomass utilization mindset, poor markets. others? ODF could turn around biomass ODF has existing biomass, foresters, What are overstocking over 25 years. others likely to see as weaknesses? and wildland fire specialists. ODF doesn’t have pilot projects. ODF has partnership w/industry. ODF in DEQ non-attainment area, ODF has SWO sufficient biomass sell biomass rather than burn it. inventory of 2.8 MMBF. ODF may spend $$ on suppression. Opportunities Threats External - Opportunities open to ODF? External - Harm ODF? Competition? doing? What trends could you take advantage of? What threats do your weaknesses expose you can create you turn yourright-sized strengths into to? limited thus no HowODF a local ODF “competition” opportunities? threat-pressure to adapt/evolve. customer market for biomass. Unfocused existing biomass program, ODF utilize existing Southwest must be developed by business plan. Oregon State Forest Management Plan, Special Forest Products ODF may overdevelop this biomass niche market and outstrip raw supply Strategy to sell biomass to public. of material, could lead to market ODF utilize existing SWO-FMP to failure. sell biomass to implement Aquatic & Riparian and Forest Health ODF may lose raw biomass material due to combustion and consumption Strategies. by wildfires during the time it takes to ODF could develop partnership with get the overstocked material harvested Veteran’s Affairs White City campus and an annual biomass reduction to develop a biomass fueled program into full production. cogeneration plant and supply fuel. 57 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Appendix C - Business Model Canvas Key Partners (1)SOU cogeneration project. (2)SWO-ODF Unit. Key Activities (1)Utilize ODF biomass slash wastestream from timber harvesting. $$ Value Propositions Customer Relationships (1)Sell ODF wastestream of cheap biomass fuel to SOU cogeneration project. (1)SOU cogeneration project. (2)SWO ODF biomass specialist, foresters, wildland specialists. Key Resources (1)SWO ODF biomass slash. (2)SWO ODF biomass specialist, foresters, wildfire specs. (3)SWO –FMP. (4)SOU Green Purchasing Policy. Cost Structure (1)ODF fixed personnel costs for biomassslash, biomass specialist, foresters, wildland fire specialists. Customer Segments Southern Oregon University cogeneration project. Channels (1)External partnership between ODF/SOU cogeneration project. (2)Internal relationships among ODF biomass specs., foresters, wildland specs. $$ Revenue Streams (1)ODF special forest products sales of biomass. 58 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Appendix D – Big Windy Fire Complex Southwest Oregon 2013 Big Windy Fire Burning Forest Biomass & Ecosystem (For scale, look for the firefighter standing by the tree, **bottom-left). **firefighter here Aftermath of Fire Compromised Ecosystem Services Evidenced: waste removal-air, storm water control, pollination, soil retention, hydrological services, soil formation, biological control, habitat refugia, aesthetic, water supply, gas/atmospheric. 59 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Appendix E – Logging Slash Fuel Models 11, 12, 13 Fuel Model 11 logging biomass slash – 11 tons per acre. Fuel Model 12 logging biomass slash – 34 tons per acre (red slash). Fuel Model 13 logging biomass slash – 58 tons per acre (red slash). 60 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Appendix F – Southern Oregon University Cogeneration Plant Project SOU biomass cogeneration plant project video - http://vimeo.com/109863413 61 ECOSERVICES SUSTAINABILITY PLAN Appendix G – Benefits cost analysis, by the author, Tim Dedrick, titled ’25 Year Ecosystem Services vs. Wildfire, A Benefit Cost Analysis’. Hyperlink SUS510 Week 5 - Ecosystem Services vs Wildfire BCA.5- Tim Dedrick Summer 2, 2013.docx Password = 2048801 62