13th International ISRM Conference, Montreal, Canada
Probabilistic Analysis for Mine Design, Using Coal Pillar Design to Illustrate its Potential Usefulness
*T. R. Kostecki and A.J.S. Spearing
Southern Illinois University at Carbondale
1230 Lincoln Drive,
Carbondale, Illinois 62901-6603
J. Hirschi
Illinois Clean Coal Institute
5776 Coal Drive,
Carterville, Illinois 62918-3328
(*Corresponding author: toddkostecki@hotmail.com)
ABSTRACT
Analytical engineering design is based upon a trial-and-error iterative and deterministic process. Within
this process, the engineer obtains some estimated values, plugs them into de facto closed-form equations,
and receives output, which is expected to be a single number that serves as the basis for the design. In the
most general sense, this number is typically a factor of safety, or some other equivalent strength-by-stress
ratio. This provides the engineer with a quick and quantitative look at a design scenario or problem. This
can create problems however, because in design scenarios in mining applications, the actual system is
highly variable, complex and often chaotic, which can lead to potentially incorrect conclusions that in the
worst case result in unsafe designs. A more appropriate and reliable approach is a probabilistic analysis for
engineering design. This process is used widely in civil and other engineering disciplines, but is often
overlooked for applications in coal mine design (Canbulat, 2008). Additionally, it seems the amount of
past studies in this area, especially in coal mine design, are rather limited. This is surprising considering
how the probabilistic approach can account for uncertainty in parametric values and how unpredictable a
mining design can be. This paper will focus on a summary of past studies related to probabilistic analysis
in coal mine design, particularly ground control, and provide recommendations for future work that could
improve design reliability.
KEYWORDS
Deterministic, Probabilistic, Coal Mine Design, Support Design, Pillar Design.