Gasoline-powered Cars
and
Population Density
Chiba University of Commerce
Environmental Economics Team
p. 1
Index
1. Global warming
2. Transportation and Family Cars
3. Population density
4. Problems and Measures
5. Summary
6. Reference material
p. 2
1. Global warming
Global warming is now progressing rapidly. If it progresses at this rate, it is predicted
that the average global temperature will rise more than 6.4 degrees from pre-Industrial
Revolution levels.[Figure 1]
If the global temperature rises more than 2 degrees, more problems will happen all over
the world, such as to change ecological system, epidemic is raging, to submerge the
islands, bad harvest and climate change.
The main reason for global warming is the greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide,
or CO₂. CO₂ is responsible for 60% of global warming. We have to reduce CO₂
emissions.[Figure 2]
According to International Energy Agency, the IEA, the total CO₂ emissions in the
world was about 31.6 billion tons in 2012, an increase of 1.4% over 2011 and the
highest emission ever. On 10 June, the IEA urged governments to adopt quickly four
policies that would ensure climate goals could be reached without harming economic
growth. They are (1) improving energy efficiency in buildings, industry and transport
(2) limiting the construction and use of inefficient power plants (3) halving methane
emissions (4) partially phasing out fossil fuel subsidies.
In this study, we focused our attention on (1), improving energy efficiency in buildings,
industry and transportation and considered what we should do to improve energy
efficiency in transport in Japan.
p. 3
[Figure 1] How temperatures have been rising due to global warming
[Figure 2] Effect of Greenhouse gases
p. 4
2. Transportation and Family Cars
Japan’s CO₂ emissions was about 1.241 billion tons in 2011. About half of CO₂
emissions of transportation was emitted by family cars.[Figure 3]
We think there are two reasons why CO₂ emissions of family cars is very high.
1) Bad efficiency of gasoline-powered cars
We compared CO₂ emissions of cars and other means of transportation. The CO₂
emissions of cars was the highest of the four means of transport, trains, buses, planes
and cars.[Figure 4]
2) The number of people using private cars
53% people commute by private cars in Japan. In other words, the majority of students
and workers get in private cars every day in Japan. So we think in majority of people
use private cars.[Figure 5]
For these kinds of reasons, we think the best way to improve energy efficiency in
transportation is to use private cars less.
[Figure 3] Japan’s CO₂ emissions by sector
p. 5
[Figure 4] To compare vehicles
[Figure 5] The ways to commute in Japan
p. 6
3. Population density
We investigated the number of people who don’t have private cars. According to the
number of cars per 1,000 households, the city with the least number of cars was is
Tokyo. [Figure 6] Many people live in Tokyo. So we examined the correlation between
population density and the number of cars per 1,000 households.[Figure 7] The
correlations was very high, -0.74. There were many negative correlations between
population density and the number of cars per 1,000 households. Significance F is 1.55-9,
very low. Intercept of t Stat is 8.55. Its P-value is 5.41-11. The car of t Stat is -7.55. Its
P-value is 1.55-9. There were enough values to make us believe the result is true.
According to the estimated value, we understand that as population density becomes
higher, the number of people using private cars decreases.
So we think if the number of high population density cities increases, the number of
private cars will decrease.[Figure 8]
[Figure 6] The number of cars per 1,000 households
p. 7
[Figure 7] Regression analysis
Regresion Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations
0.747704
0.559061
0.549262
7.760237
47
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
Intercept
The number of cars per 1,000 households
SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 3435.922 3435.922 57.05495 1.55128E-09
45 2709.958 60.22128
46 6145.879
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value
49.42655 5.776398 8.55664 5.41E-11
-0.02572 0.003405 -7.55347 1.55E-09
Lowr 95% Upper 95%
37.79229299 61.06082
-0.03257887 -0.01886
[Figure 8] The estimated value
p. 8
4. Problems and Measures
We think the way is the best way in Japan. But there are problems. They are Quality of
Life, QOL problems. If we make high population density cities, can’t keep the Quality
of Life, the Quality of Life will lower than now. The problems which occur in high
population cities and the possibility of these problems occurring are together called
‘’QOL problems’’.
We define QOL problems as problems of noise, garbage and wastewater.
1) Noise
People make sound. So as population increases, the sound they make increase. The
sound becomes noise. Noise leads to poor concentration and communication
interference.
2) Garbage
As the number of people increases, garbage increases. If we can’t dispose of all the
garbage, it will lead to bad sanitation.
3) Wastewater
As the number of people increases, wastewater increases. If we can’t clean up the
wastewater, it will make bad smell, in the short-term. In the long term, it will cause
other problems, such as affecting the drinking water, causing epidemics, water pollution,
and changing the ecological system.
These effects are very dangerous, but we have measure of these problems.
1) Measures to counter noise
There are many kinds of measures to counter noise, such as active noise canceller and
soundproof walls, but many people don’t do it. So we think we should regulate it by
law.
2) Measures to counter garbage
The measure is to build garbage incinerating power plants. The plant will use garbage to
generate electricity. Until now, the act of collecting and removing garbage has not made
any money, but if we take this measure, we can make and sell the electricity to the
people. We can make money, and we can use the money to collect and remove garbage.
3) Measure to counter wastewater
The measure is build sewers and sewage disposal plants. This is not a special way but it
is the best way.
So we think measure of QOL problems are to ban noise by law, build garbage
incinerating power plants and build sewers and sewage disposal plants.
p. 9
5. Summary
Global warming is progressing rapidly, and we have to reduce CO₂ emissions. IEA has
proposed some policies. One of these policies is to improve energy efficiency in
transportation. According to estimated value, as population density become higher the
number of cars per 1,000 households in Japan decreases. So we think that is the measure
Japan should take. Making more high population density cities and taking measures to
counter QOL problems is the best way in Japan.
p. 10
6. Reference material
European smart cities http://www.smart-cities.eu/index2.html
IT pro http://itpro.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/Keyword/20120906/421044/
E-stat http://www.e-stat.go.jp/SG1/estat/eStatTopPortal.do
SUMITOMO
MITSUI
TRUST
TRUST
RESEACH
INSTITUTE
http://www.smtri.jp/index.html
Smart City P1 http://www.imart.co.jp/smartcity-p1.html#tosinjikken
THE JAPAN CHINA BUSINESS ALLIANCE FOR ENERGY SAVING AND ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION http://www.jc-web.or.jp/JCCont.aspx?SNO=004&b=087&s=094&k=125
JACCA http://www.jccca.org/
JR EAST http://www.jreast.co.jp/index.html
Land, Infrastructure and Transportation Ministry http://www.mlit.go.jp/
The Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan http://www.fepc.or.jp/index.html
p. 11