Northwest Climate Science Digest: Science and Learning Opportunities Combined
June 2015 Issue
The Northwest Climate Science Digest is a monthly newsletter jointly produced by the
Northwest Climate Science Center and the North Pacific Landscape Conservation
Cooperative aimed at helping you stay informed about climate change science and upcoming
events and training opportunities relevant to your conservation work. Feel free to share this
information within your organization and networks, and please note the role the NW CSC
and NPLCC played in providing this service. Do you have a published article or upcoming
opportunity that you would like to share? Please send it our way to nwcsc@uw.edu. Many
thanks to those who have provided material for this edition, particularly the Pacific
Northwest Climate Impacts Research Consortium, the Climate Impacts Group and the
Environmental Protection Agency’s Climate Change and Water News.
Subscribe to the NW CSC’s e-mail update list to receive periodic updates on Northwest
climate-related information.
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SCIENCE: Recent climate change-relevant publications, special reports and science
resources.
UPCOMING EVENTS: Upcoming climate change-relevant webinars, workshops,
conferences, list servers and other learning opportunities.
PREVIOUS ISSUES: An archive of previous Northwest Climate Change Digest issues
developed by Region 1 of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
Biodiversity/ Species and Ecosystem Response
Relative Sensitivity to Climate Change of Species in Northwestern North America
Northwest Mountain Amphibians and their Changing Wetlands
Recruitment Limitation of Long-Lived Conifers: Implications for Climate Change Responses
Assessing Species Vulnerability to Climate Change
Climate Change Threatens Native Trout Diversity
Climate Registry for the Assessment of Vulnerability
Coastal/Marine Ecosystems/ Ocean Acidification/ Sea Level Rise
Homeowners Prepare for Climate Change Along the Oregon Coast
Aquatic Resource/ Stream Flow/ Hydrology in the Western U.S.
The National Stream Internet Project: An Analytical Infrastructure for Data on Stream
Networks
Wetlands in a Changing World: Wading into Science for American Wetlands Month
Warming Favors Invasive Fish over Native Trout and Salmon
Arid Ecosystems
Climatic Controls of Aboveground Net Primary Production in Semi-Arid Grasslands along a
Latitudinal Gradient Portend Low Sensitivity to Warming
Land Use
Farmers Paid to Let Their Crops go Brown at End of Season Because of Drought
USDA to Expand Investment in Water Conservation, Resilience across Drought-Stricken
States
Forests
Managing Early Succession for Biodiversity and Long-Term Productivity of Conifer Forests
in Southwestern Oregon
Climate Change, Mountain Pine Beetles, and the Future of Whitebark Pine
Tradeoffs between Chilling and Forcing in Satisfying Dormancy Requirements for Pacific
Northwest Tree Species
Fire
Will The West Ever Be Able To Live With Fire?
Tribal and Indigenous Peoples Matters
“Our Bodies and Our Spirits”
Salmon Harvest Cut this Year
Jamestown S’Klallam Reconnects Creek to Strait to Save Fish
Climate Change Disproportionately Affects Native Communities
Taking Action
EPA Local Government Climate Adaptation Training Module Available Online
Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force Releases 2014 Highlights of Progress
and 2015 Implementation Plan
Climate and Weather Reports and Services
Decadal Modulation of Global Surface Temperature by Internal Climate Variability
What the Integrated Scenarios Project Says About the Northwest Under Climate-Change
Anthropogenic Contribution to Global Occurrence of Heavy-Precipitation and HighTemperature Extremes
Impacts of Climate Change on Electric Power Supply in the Western United States
Special Reports/ Announcements
Call for Abstracts: Sixth Annual Northwest Climate Conference
Senate Eager to Add more Money for Drought Prep
U.S. Global Change Research Program Seeks Public Input on National Climate Assessment
Next Steps
2015 NW CSC Climate Boot Camp
Biodiversity/ Species and Ecosystem Response
Relative Sensitivity to Climate Change of Species in Northwestern North America:
Michael Case and Joshua Lawler from University of Washington recently published a paper
titled “Relative sensitivity to climate change of species in northwestern North America” in
the journal Biological Conservation. The authors used a combination of scientific literature and
expert knowledge to assess the relative sensitivity to climate change of 195 plant and animal
species in the northwestern North America. Results show that although there were highly
sensitive species in each of the taxonomic groups analyzed, amphibians and reptiles were, as
a group, estimated to be the most sensitive to climate change. Results also indicate that many
species will be sensitive to climate change largely because they depend on habitats that will
likely be significantly altered as climates change. Although to date, many climate impact
assessments for species have focused on projecting range shifts, quantifying physiological
limits, and assessing phenological shifts, in light of the results, a renewed emphasis on the
collection of basic natural history data could go a long way toward improving our ability to
anticipate future climate impacts. The results highlight the potential for basic information
about climate-change sensitivity to facilitate the prioritization of management actions and
research needs in the face of limited budgets.
Case MJ, Lawler JJ, Tomasevic JA (2015) Relative sensitivity to climate change of species in
northwestern North America. Biological Conservation 187:127-133. http://dx.doi.org/
10.1016/j.biocon.2015.04.013
Northwest Mountain Amphibians and their Changing Wetlands: Each year from Mt.
Rainier to Mt. St. Helens the seasons run their cycle as the snow perched atop the
Northwest’s majestic, high elevations melts, eventually winding its way to the Pacific Ocean.
Along its gravity-propelled journey, this water fills montane lakes and streams, providing
essential habitat for species such as alpine frogs and salamanders, while also feeding streams
carrying young salmon—not to mention fresh water for towns and farms—downstream.
Sadly, this process is now threatened by climate change, which has been diminishing the
region’s snowpack. Especially imperiled are montane amphibians: http://bit.ly/1Ke4bxY
Recruitment Limitation of Long-Lived Conifers: Implications for Climate Change
Responses: Kroiss and HilleRisLambers from the University of Washington recently
published a study in Ecology that evaluated recruitment limitation of long-lived conifers forest
ecosystems of Mount Rainier National Park, located in the western Cascade Range in
Washington. Seed availability and suitable microsites for germination are likely to severely
constrain the responses of plant species to climate change, especially at and beyond range
edges. For example, range shifts may be slow if seed availability is low at range edges due to
low parent-tree abundance or reduced fecundity. Even when seeds are available, climatic and
biotic factors may further limit the availability of suitable microsites for recruitment.
Unfortunately, the importance of seed and microsite limitation during range shifts remains
unknown, since few studies have examined both factors simultaneously, particularly across
species' ranges. To address this issue, the researchers assessed seed availability and the
factors influencing germination for six conifer species across a large environmental gradient
encompassing their elevational ranges. The researchers found that seed availability declined
toward species' upper range edges for most species, primarily due to low parent-tree
abundance rather than declining fecundity. Range expansions are thus likely to be lagged
with respect to climate change, as long generation times preclude rapid increases in tree
density. In all, our results demonstrate that seed and microsite limitation will likely result in
lagged responses to climate change but with differences among species leading to complex
range shift dynamics.
Kroiss, S. J., and J. HilleRisLambers. 2015. Recruitment limitation of long-lived conifers:
implications for climate change responses. Ecology 96:1286-1297.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/14-0595.1
Assessing Species Vulnerability to Climate Change: The effects of climate change on
biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to
assess species’ vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming
decades. To minimize global biodiversity losses, conservationists need to identify those
species that are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this Review,
the authors summarize different currencies used for assessing species’ climate change
vulnerability. The authors describe three main approaches used to derive these currencies
(correlative, mechanistic and trait-based), and their associated data requirements, spatial and
temporal scales of application and modelling methods. They identify strengths and
weaknesses of the approaches and highlight the sources of uncertainty inherent in each
method that limit projection reliability. Finally, the authors provide guidance for
conservation practitioners in selecting the most appropriate approach(es) for their planning
needs and highlight priority areas for further assessments.
Pacifici, M., W. B. Foden, P. Visconti, J. E. M. Watson, S. H. M. Butchart, K. M. Kovacs, B.
R. Scheffers, D. G. Hole, T. G. Martin, H. R. Akcakaya, R. T. Corlett, B. Huntley, D.
Bickford, J. A. Carr, A. A. Hoffmann, G. F. Midgley, P. Pearce-Kelly, R. G. Pearson, S. E.
Williams, S. G. Willis, B. Young, and C. Rondinini. 2015. Assessing species vulnerability to
climate change. Nature Climate Change 5: 215-224.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2448
Climate Change Threatens Native Trout Diversity: Scientists have discovered that the
diversity of a threatened native trout species will likely decrease due to future climate change.
Researchers have found that in native bull trout, genetic diversity – critical for species to
adapt to a warming world – is already lowest where stream temperatures are warmest and
winter flooding is highest. These trends are predicted to continue into the future, suggesting
that this imperiled species is more susceptible to climate change than previously
thought. “Genetic diversity is extremely depressed where future climatic conditions may be
most challenging for bull trout,” said U.S. Geological Survey scientist Ryan Kovach, the lead
author of the report. “Together, these results highlight that bull trout may have little
resiliency in a warming world.” The study, published in Global Change Biology, combined
estimates of stream habitat conditions, current and future stream temperatures and flows,
and estimates of genetic diversity patterns in 130 bull trout populations from 24 watersheds
across the Columbia River Basin. The bull trout was listed as "threatened" under the U.S.
Endangered Species Act in 1998: http://on.doi.gov/1SR7KzJ
Kovach, R. P., Muhlfeld, C. C., Wade, A. A., Hand, B. K., Whited, D. C., DeHaan, P. W.,
Al-Chokhachy, R. and Luikart, G. (2015), Genetic diversity is related to climatic variation
and vulnerability in threatened bull trout. Global Change Biology.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12850
Climate Registry for the Assessment of Vulnerability: The USGS National Climate
Change and Wildlife Science Center has worked with the non-profit EcoAdapt and other
partners to develop a tool called the Climate Registry for the Assessment of Vulnerability
(CRAVe ). This tool will house metadata on climate change vulnerability assessments from
across the nation and will be made available for searching by the general public:
http://bit.ly/1SRbLUY
Coastal/Marine Ecosystems/ Ocean Acidification/ Sea Level Rise
Homeowners Prepare for Climate Change Along the Oregon Coast: By 2100,
depending on the local terrain, sea levels along the Northwest coast will rise by anywhere
from less than half a meter (1.5 feet) to as much as one-and-a-half meters (4.5 feet),
according to current research. This means that by century’s end, the Pacific is likely to
inundate the coast by as much as 50 meters (164 feet) in some places. The conclusion is
inescapable: the Northwest’s coastal communities are at risk. But Neskowin residents and
others in Oregon’s Tillamook County aren’t letting the dire projections drown their hopes.
Instead, they’re adapting. And they’re getting some help from the Pacific Northwest Climate
Impacts Research Consortium (CIRC): http://bit.ly/1EpDO7D
Aquatic Resource/ Stream Flow/ Hydrology in the Western U.S.
The National Stream Internet Project: An Analytical Infrastructure for Data on
Stream Networks: Accurate, high resolution information does not exist for consistent
status and trend assessments of water quality and aquatic biotas throughout the >3,000,000
kilometers of rivers and streams in the U.S. Without that information, prioritization of
limited resources for conservation and management proceeds inefficiently. In recent
decades, however, massive amounts of water quality, biological surveys, and habitat
condition data have been collected by state, federal, tribal, and private organizations. In
many cases, high-quality information could be developed from those data if a nationally
consistent analytical infrastructure for data on stream networks existed. The National Stream
Internet (NSI) Project was funded by the Landscape Conservation Cooperative Network as
a national initiative grant to develop that infrastructure. The project has three simple
objectives: (1) develop and refine free statistical software for the analysis of data on stream
networks, (2) ensure compatibility between the stream software and the National Hydrologic
Dataset, and (3) conduct a workshop with researchers and aquatic program leaders to
brainstorm about national priorities and the opportunities that big data and stream statistics
now provide for developing better information about aquatic resources. Learn more here:
http://bit.ly/1dab3Bs
Wetlands in a Changing World: Wading into Science for American Wetlands Month:
Wetlands across the U.S. and around the world act as a crucial link between land and water,
providing a number of services such as removing excess nutrients, pollutants, and sediment
from water and acting as natural buffers to floodwaters. In 1991, the Environmental
Protection Agency established May as American Wetlands Month to celebrate the
importance of these ecosystems. Understanding both the impact of climate change on
wetlands and the role that wetlands play in adapting to climate change is a vital part of
ensuring climate change preparedness. Luckily, scientists across the country are already
examining these relationships. To support this scientific endeavor, several of the eight
regional Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers (CSCs) have funded research
projects that focus on ways to improve the methods and tools used in wetland research and
to help shed light on how changes in climate might affect these invaluable resources. The
results of these studies are often used to support planning and decision-making by natural
and cultural resource managers. Keep reading to learn more about this work and to get a
glimpse of some of the findings that describe what our future may hold for wetlands and
their inhabitants: http://www.usgs.gov/blogs/features/usgs_top_story/wetlands-in-achanging-world-wading-into-science-for-american-wetlands-month/
Warming Favors Invasive Fish over Native Trout and Salmon: Climate change is
rapidly altering freshwater systems across the Northwest as air temperatures warm, patterns
of precipitation and snowmelt change, and droughts and wildfires increase in frequency and
intensity. Many species, including the Chinook salmon, westslope cutthroat trout, and native
bull trout are at risk. Fortunately, managers still have a time to implement conservation
measures with the potential to yield high future dividends. Here are three stories illustrating
how climate researchers are helping. Finish reading this story by following the following link:
http://bit.ly/1EpE86c
Arid Ecosystems
Climatic Controls of Aboveground Net Primary Production in Semi-Arid Grasslands
along a Latitudinal Gradient Portend Low Sensitivity to Warming: Although climate
models forecast warmer temperatures with a high degree of certainty, precipitation is the
primary driver of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in most grasslands.
Conversely, variations in temperature seldom are related to patterns of ANPP. Thus
forecasting responses to warming is a challenge, and raises the question: how sensitive will
grassland ANPP be to warming? Researchers evaluated climate and multi-year ANPP data
(67 years) from eight western US grasslands arrayed along mean annual temperature (MAT;
~7–14 °C) and mean annual precipitation (MAP; ~250–500 mm) gradients. The researchers
used regression and analysis of covariance to assess relationships between ANPP and
temperature, as well as precipitation (annual and growing season) to evaluate temperature
sensitivity of ANPP. Regression models indicated that variation in growing season
temperature was negatively related to total and graminoid ANPP, but precipitation was a
stronger predictor than temperature. Growing season temperature was also a significant
parameter in more complex models, but again precipitation was consistently a stronger
predictor of ANPP. Surprisingly, neither annual nor growing season SPEI were as strongly
related to ANPP as precipitation. The researchers conclude that forecasted warming likely
will affect ANPP in these grasslands, but that predicting temperature effects from natural
climatic gradients is difficult. This is because, unlike precipitation, warming effects can be
positive or negative and moderated by shifts in the C3/C4 ratios of plant communities.
Mowll, W., D. Blumenthal, K. Cherwin, A. Smith, A. Symstad, L. Vermeire, S. Collins, M.
Smith, and A. Knapp. 2015. Climatic controls of aboveground net primary production in
semi-arid grasslands along a latitudinal gradient portend low sensitivity to warming.
Oecologia 177: 959-969. http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1007/s00442-015-3232-7
Land Use
Farmers Paid to Let Their Crops go Brown at End of Season Because of Drought:
Expecting a worsening drought season in late summer and early autumn, 13 landowners of
agriculture properties in the Sequim-Dungeness Valley have agreed not to irrigate portions
of their land from Aug. 15 to Sept. 15 as part of a dry-year leasing program funded by the
state Department of Ecology. The program — implemented in partnership with the seven
irrigation districts and various companies making up the Sequim-Dungeness Water Users
Association — is intended to conserve water and maintain surface water flows in the
Dungeness River. Experts have projected record-low flows this year. “As irrigators, we are
gearing up to be as efficient as we can with our delivery methods as far as the amount we
pull out of the river,” said Ben Smith, president of the Dungeness Water Users. Washington
Water Trust officials have $200,000 to pay to the 13 landowners to offset the cost of leaving
their fields fallow during that time period. “It is a voluntary program where we pay irrigators
not to irrigate for the last 30 days of the irrigation season,” said Amanda Cronin,
Washington Water Trust project manager. The program is expected to be finalized soon:
http://bit.ly/1AGgEug
USDA to Expand Investment in Water Conservation, Resilience across DroughtStricken States: Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack announced that the Natural Resources
Conservation Service (NRCS) will invest approximately $21 million in additional Farm Bill
dollars to help farmers and ranchers apply science-based solutions to mitigate the short and
long term effects of drought. These investments will focus financial and technical assistance
in the most severely drought-stricken areas in eight states (which includes parts of California,
Kansas, Idaho, Nevada, Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas, and Utah) to help crop and livestock
producers apply conservation practices that increase irrigation efficiency, improve soil health
and productivity, and ensure reliable water sources for livestock operations:
http://1.usa.gov/1AK48K0.
Forests
Managing early succession for biodiversity and long-term productivity of conifer
forests in southwestern Oregon: Early-successional stages have been truncated and altered
in many western U.S. forest landscapes by planting conifers, controlling competing
vegetation, suppressing fire, and focusing on maintaining late-seral species and undisturbed
riparian zones. Declining area of early-successional stages may be reducing resilience and
sustainability on landscapes that experience elevated disturbance related to future climate
changes. In this study, two post-harvest early-successional treatments were compared to
each other and to two mature-forest treatments using 20 years of evidence from replicated 7ha experimental units in a southwestern Oregon forest dominated by Douglas-fir
(Pseudotsuga menziesii Mirb. Franco). Recognizing the importance of intentionally
managing for shrubs and hardwood trees is particularly relevant at this site, because stand
reconstruction and historical records indicate these species, along with knobcone pine,
dominated the site for 40 years before the current mature Douglas-fir forest started gaining
dominance. In contrast, the prolific natural regeneration of Douglas-fir after recent harvest
and wildfire suggests that what comes back “naturally” in modern times will not allow this
history to be repeated.
Bormann, B. T., R. L. Darbyshire, P. S. Homann, B. A. Morrissette, and S. N. Little. 2015.
Managing early succession for biodiversity and long-term productivity of conifer forests in
southwestern Oregon. Forest Ecology and Management 340: 114-125. http://dx.doi.org/
10.1016/j.foreco.2014.12.016
Climate Change, Mountain Pine Beetles, and the Future of Whitebark Pine: For many
millennia, slow-growing whitebark pines have held a place of special influence in their
rugged alpine communities. These hardy conifers often live for centuries, thriving in the
rocky windswept environment near the tree line in the Rocky Mountains, Cascades, and
Sierra Nevadas. In recent years, things have changed. Whitebark pine populations are now
declining steeply throughout their range. Climate change, disease, and the mountain pine
beetle (a native species whose numbers have exploded in recent years) are largely to blame.
In recent years, the U.S. West has been banded with red stands of dead trees. Yet in the past
beetle outbreaks were less disruptive. For ages, the mountain pine beetle has been in a state
of equilibrium with its environment, acting as what’s known as a “disturbance agent”—
recycling trees weakened by drought, fire, and disease and opening clearings in mature stands
that support different species and increase forest diversity. However, climate change is now
altering the environment in ways that favor beetle epidemics. When beetle populations are
high, large numbers of beetles can launch synchronized attacks that overwhelm the defenses
of even healthy trees. In these cases, large-scale outbreaks can occur that kill vast swaths of
forest: http://bit.ly/1Pxdz2H
Tradeoffs between Chilling and Forcing in Satisfying Dormancy Requirements for
Pacific Northwest Tree Species: Many temperate and boreal tree species have a chilling
requirement. Results from trials with 11 Pacific Northwest tree species are consistent with
the concept that plants can accumulate both chilling and forcing units simultaneously during
the dormant season and they exhibit a tradeoff between amount of forcing and chilling. That
is, the parallel model of chilling and forcing was effective in predicting budburst and well
chilled plants require less forcing for bud burst than plants which have received less chilling.
Plants which have an obligate chilling requirement (Douglas-fir, western hemlock, western
larch, pines, and true firs) and received no or very low levels of chilling did not burst bud
normally even with long photoperiods. Pacific madrone and western redcedar benefited
from chilling in terms of requiring less forcing to promote bud burst but many plants burst
bud normally without chilling. Equations predicting budburst were developed for each
species in our trials for a portion of western North America under current climatic
conditions and for 2080. Mean winter temperature was predicted to increase 3.2–5.5°C and
this change resulted in earlier predicted budburst for Douglas-fir throughout much of our
study area but later budburst in some southern portions of its current range as insufficient
chilling is predicted to occur. Other species all had earlier predicted dates of budburst by
2080 than currently. Recent warming trends have resulted in earlier budburst for some
woody plant species; however, the substantial winter warming predicted by some climate
models will reduce future chilling in some locations such that budburst will not consistently
occur earlier.
Harrington, C.A. & P.J. Gould (2015) Tradeoffs between chilling and forcing in satisfying
dormancy requirements for Pacific Northwest tree species, Front. Plant Sci.,
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2015.00120.
Fire
Will The West Ever Be Able To Live With Fire? The summer and fall promise to extend
a long run of worsening years for American wildfires — fires that are projected to be fueled
more by climate change. The unique weather and landscapes of the American West usher in
regular wildfires. Drought and heat wrought by stubborn ocean conditions have left great
stretches of it dryer and more combustible than usual this year. Experts say the keys to
adapting Western lives to these wildfire risks lie in how fires and the lands that fuel them are
managed; and in how yards, neighborhoods and cities are planned, built and run.
Scientific progress and more than a century of living with wildfire have boosted Western
resilience to the threat. But improvements in how wildfire dangers have been managed have
fallen far short of the reimaginations of landscapes that are needed. “We’ve made good
progress, but not good enough,” Jan van Wagtendonk, a retired Yosemite National Park
forest scientist who has documented the evolution of America’s management of wildfires,
said. “Much more is needed.” : http://bit.ly/1BvevMV
Tribal and Indigenous Peoples Matters
“Our Bodies and Our Spirits”: Traditional foods are more than meals for North
America’s Tribes and First Nations; they are a way of life. But due in part to climate change,
these natural and cultural resources are at risk. Here in the Northwest, Indigenous
communities and several regional climate research organizations are hoping to change that.
Along the shores of Skagit Bay in western Washington and Vancouver Harbor in British
Columbia, the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community and Tsleil-Waututh Nation have teamed
up with the U.S. Geological Survey, North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative
(NPLCC), and the Northwest Climate Science Center (NW CSC) to pilot a project aimed at
preserving the traditional resources of Tribes and First Nations as they face a changing
climate: http://bit.ly/1HBgdBO
Salmon Harvest Cut this Year: Effects of climate change and the ongoing loss of salmon
habitat came home to roost at this year’s tribal and state salmon fishing season setting
process. The result was some of the most restrictive salmon fisheries ever seen in some
areas. The Muckleshoot Tribe, which tracks salmon migration into the lake through the
Ballard Locks, quickly realized the extent of last year’s low returns and took action to protect
the remaining fish. The tribe sharply reduced or eliminated planned harvests, including
culturally important ceremonial and subsistence fisheries. But by then most of the damage
had already been done. Despite tribal sacrifices, Lake Washington wild chinook populations
were further diminished and hatchery egg-take goals were unmet. The package of fisheries
developed by the co-managers for 2015 reflects the reality of lower abundance and reduced
fishing opportunity for everyone. Salmon management requires a balance between the needs
of the resource against the desire of anglers:
http://www.northcountyoutlook.com/story/2015/05/13/opinion/salmon-harvest-cut-thisyear/7980.html
Jamestown S’Klallam Reconnects Creek to Strait to Save Fish: The Jamestown
S’Klallam Tribe is starting to see the effects of this year’s predicted low water flow in the
Dungeness River Valley much sooner than anticipated. Tribal natural resources staff
discovered that the mouth of Seibert Creek had been cut off by a sandbar – a typical
problem with the creek during a low water year. But this year’s low flows are more severe
than usual due to the record-low snowpack in the Olympic Mountains. “We never consider
low flows in the spring because we typically have more water coming down the creeks,” said
Chris Burns, Jamestown natural resources technician. “But when McDonald Creek started
looking really skinny, I started getting really worried and checked Seibert. “That’s when I
found the pool of water behind the sandbar holding steelhead, coho and cutthroat smolts,
plus an adult steelhead, with no access to the Strait of Juan de Fuca.” The flow was too low
to just push the gravel out of the way to reconnect the creek to the Strait, so a ditch had to
be dug – about 3 feet wide, 2 feet deep and 20 feet long:
http://nwifc.org/2015/05/jamestown-sklallam-reconnects-creek-to-strait-to-save-fish/
Climate Change Disproportionately Affects Native Communities: Climate change is
affecting people around the world, including Native American communities. KSFR’s Zelie
Pollon spoke recently with Ann Marie Chischilly (Chiss- chilly), Executive Director of the
Institute for Tribal Environmental Professionals (ITEP) at Northern Arizona University,
who works closely with indigenous communities on environmental issues. To learn more
about this work go to the ITEP website at http://www4.nau.edu/itep/. To listen to the
interview, follow this link: http://bit.ly/1KzuqPi
Taking Action
EPA Local Government Climate Adaptation Training Module Available Online:
EPA has released an online training module to help local government officials take actions
to increase their communities' resiliency to a changing climate. The virtual training, which
lasts about 30 minutes, was developed with EPA's Local Government Advisory Committee.
It illustrates how a changing climate may affect a variety of environmental and public health
services, describes how different communities are already adapting to climate-related
challenges, and links to a number of federal and state resources that can help communities
assess their unique climate-related risks and opportunities to become more resilient to
climate change.
Click here to access the online training.
Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force Releases 2014 Highlights of
Progress and 2015 Implementation Plan: In October 2011, the Interagency Climate
Change Adaptation Task Force published the "National Action Plan: Priorities for Managing
Freshwater Resources in a Changing Climate." It was developed by the Water Resources and
Climate Change Adaptation Workgroup made up of federal agencies with responsibilities for
water management. This recent report highlights progress made in 2014 implementing the
National Action Plan and describes the specific tasks that federal agencies are planning to
undertake in 2015. The work described in this report reports reflect a comprehensive,
coordinated, and continuing effort by federal agencies to respond to the challenges for water
resources management posed by climate change.
Click here to download the report.
Click
here to access the Water Resources Adaptation to Climate Change Workgroup page.
Climate and Weather Reports and Services
Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability:
Despite a steady increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), global-mean surface
temperature (T) has shown no discernible warming since about 2000, in sharp contrast to
model simulations, which on average project strong warming. The recent slowdown in
observed surface warming has been attributed to decadal cooling in the tropical Pacific,
intensifying trade winds, changes in El Niño activity, increasing volcanic activity and
decreasing solar irradiance. Earlier periods of arrested warming have been observed but
received much less attention than the recent period, and their causes are poorly understood.
Here Dai et al. analyze observed and model-simulated global T fields to quantify the
contributions of internal climate variability (ICV) to decadal changes in global-mean T since
1920. They show that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) has been associated with
large T anomalies over both ocean and land. Combined with another leading mode of ICV,
the IPO explains most of the difference between observed and model-simulated rates of
decadal change in global-mean T since 1920, and particularly over the so-called ‘hiatus’
period since about 2000. They conclude that ICV, mainly through the IPO, was largely
responsible for the recent slowdown, as well as for earlier slowdowns and accelerations in
global-mean T since 1920, with preferred spatial patterns different from those associated
with GHG-induced warming or aerosol-induced cooling. Recent history suggests that the
IPO could reverse course and lead to accelerated global warming in the coming decades.
Dai, A., J. C. Fyfe, S.-P. Xie, and X. Dai. 2015. Decadal modulation of global surface
temperature by internal climate variability. Nature Climate Change 5: 555-559.
http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1038/nclimate2605
What the Integrated Scenarios Project Says About the Northwest Under ClimateChange: The project is Integrated Scenarios of the Future Northwest Environment, a
collaborative venture that brought together scientists from several separate Northwest
climate research organizations. Integrated Scenarios’ goal was deceptively simple: explain
what the latest climate science says about the Northwest’s future climate, vegetation, and
hydrology. Getting the answer would take some doing. To get the best science to managers,
a project was needed that was systematic, interdisciplinary, and, well, integrated. That’s
because an accurate picture of a climate-changed Northwest would have to include not only
computer-modeling the region’s climate but its vegetation and hydrology as well. Finish
reading this story by following the following link: http://bit.ly/1E1c7Av
Anthropogenic Contribution to Global Occurrence of Heavy-Precipitation and HighTemperature Extremes: Climate change includes not only changes in mean climate but
also in weather extremes. For a few prominent heatwaves and heavy precipitation events a
human contribution to their occurrence has been demonstrated. Here we apply a similar
framework but estimate what fraction of all globally occurring heavy precipitation and hot
extremes is attributable to warming. We show that at the present-day warming of 0.85 °C
about 18% of the moderate daily precipitation extremes over land are attributable to the
observed temperature increase since pre-industrial times, which in turn primarily results
from human influence. For 2 °C of warming the fraction of precipitation extremes
attributable to human influence rises to about 40%. Likewise, today about 75% of the
moderate daily hot extremes over land are attributable to warming. It is the most rare and
extreme events for which the largest fraction is anthropogenic, and that contribution
increases nonlinearly with further warming. The approach introduced here is robust owing
to its global perspective, less sensitive to model biases than alternative methods and
informative for mitigation policy, and thereby complementary to single-event attribution.
Combined with information on vulnerability and exposure, it serves as a scientific basis for
assessment of global risk from extreme weather, the discussion of mitigation targets, and
liability considerations.
Fischer, E. M., and R. Knutti. 2015. Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of
heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes. Nature Climate Change 5: 560-564.
http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1038/nclimate2617
Impacts of Climate Change on Electric Power Supply in the Western United States:
Climate change may constrain future electricity generation capacity by increasing the
incidence of extreme heat and drought events. Researchers estimate reductions to generating
capacity in the Western United States based on long-term changes in streamflow, air
temperature, water temperature, humidity and air density. Researchers simulate these key
parameters over the next half-century by joining downscaled climate forcings with a
hydrologic modelling system. For vulnerable power stations (46% of existing capacity),
climate change may reduce average summertime generating capacity by 1.1–3.0%, with
reductions of up to 7.2–8.8% under a ten-year drought. At present, power providers do not
account for climate impacts in their development plans, meaning that they could be
overestimating their ability to meet future electricity needs.
Matthew D. Bartos & Mikhail V. Chester (2015). Impacts of climate change on electric
power supply in the western United States. Nature Climate Change:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2648.
Special Reports/Announcements
Call for Abstracts: Sixth Annual Northwest Climate Conference: Abstracts for oral and
poster presentations, as well as proposals for special sessions, are due by 11:00 pm Pacific on
Friday, June 26, 2015. Submissions are requested for a range of topics related to regional
climate, climate impacts, and climate adaptation science and practice. Presentations and
special sessions that connect science to management decisions and the implementation of
adaptation actions are strongly encouraged. Note that poster submissions are considered
separate from oral submissions, meaning that a lead author can submit abstracts for an oral
presentation as well as a poster presentation:
http://pnwclimateconference.org/abstracts.html
Senate Eager to Add more Money for Drought Prep: The Washington Senate Ways &
Means Committee unanimously recommended Tuesday that $18 million be allocated to fight
Washington’s drought for the remainder of fiscal 2013-2015 and for the state’s upcoming
budget biennium 2015-2017. The new budget biennium begins this July 1. The earliest that
the Senate can vote on this appropriation is Wednesday; the bill would go next to the House
for a vote, and then to Gov. Jay Inslee for his signature. “It’s critical that we get this passed
quickly,” said Sen. Jim Honeyford, R-Sunnyside and the bill’s author. The money will go to
irrigation districts and public utilities for water-related repairs and improvements, digging
wells, and pumping water from one location to another. And it will be used to lease water
from senior water-rights holders to send to those who may need it the most:
http://bit.ly/1Q0tWsf
U.S. Global Change Research Program Seeks Public Input on National Climate
Assessment Next Steps; Comments Due June 15, 2015: A Request for Information has
been issued, seeking public input on steps for the next National Climate Assessment.
Effectively managing the risks of climate change requires the best available scientific
information, continually updated to address rapidly evolving national needs. Building on the
momentum of the 2014 National Climate Assessment report, the U.S. Global Change
Research Program is conducting a sustained assessment process that enhances the federal
government's ability to deliver timely, scientifically sound products in support of climaterelated decisions across the country. This process also fosters collaboration among decision
makers at the national, regional, tribal, and local levels. Through the process, scientists and
stakeholders are working together to build the knowledge base and capacity needed to
effectively integrate new scientific knowledge into on-the-ground responses.
Click here for
more information and to contribute.
2015 NW CSC Climate Boot Camp: This year’s camp is hosted by the University of
Washington and will run from August 16th – 21st at Pack Forest Conference Center in
Eatonville, WA. The curriculum for this year’s camp will delve into Adaptation on the
Wildland-Urban Interface. The extended application deadline is May 13, 2015 and
applications will be reviewed on a competitive basis for a limited number of slots. For more
information visit the website or, contact Arwen Bird, CBC Coordinator (email:
birda@uw.edu, phone: 503.318.5104).
UPCOMING EVENTS
Upcoming Webinars, Courses and Meetings
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June 4, 10-11am (Pacific), Webinar - Water Hazards and Community Resilience
June 11,11-1230pm (Pacific), Webinar - Climate Change in America's National Parks
Webinar - The Latest Word from the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives - Taking
Strategic Steps for National Science and Adaptation Planning
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June 12, 10-11am (Pacific), Webinar - A New Global Measure of Earth's Maximum
Land Surface Temperature
June 15-17 – Conference, New Orleans, LA. American Water Resources Association
Specialty Conference: Climate Change Adaptation
June 16-18 – Training, Bishop, CA. Institute for Tribal Environmental
Professionals Training Climate Change Adaptation Planning
June 17, 11-12pm (Pacific), Webinar – Great Northern LCC - NorWeST, Climate
Shield, and next frontiers with environmental DNA
June 18, 10-11am (Pacific), Webinar - Navigating the Data Basin Platform: A Guided
Tour
June 23, 11-12pm (Pacific), Webinar - Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change
June 23, 12-1pm (Pacific), Webinar – Introduction to Climate Registry for the
Assessment of Vulnerability (CRAVe)
June 23-25, Workshop - Extreme Events and Climate Adaptation Planning Workshop
June 24, 11-12pm (Pacific), Webinar - Impacts of Climate Change on Tribal Health
June 24-26, Meeting, Incline Village, NV. Western Governors' Association 2015
Annual Meeting
June 29, 11-1230 (Pacific), Webinar - Climate Change Impacts on Fish and Wildlife
June 29-July 1, Workshop, Boulder, CO. – Rising Voices - Collaborative Science for
Climate Solutions
July 5-10 - Conference, Portland, OR. 9th International Association of Landscape
Ecology World Congress
Aug 16-21 – Eatonville, WA. Northwest Climate Science Center Climate Boot Camp
2015
Nov 8-12 – Conference, Portland, OR. CERF 23rd Biennial Conference
List Servers
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BioClimate News & Events from NCCWSC & the CSCs
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ClimateNews-- is a snapshot from British Columbia’s Ministry of Forests, Lands and
Natural Resource Operations, provides new and emerging climate change adaptation and
mitigation activities in the natural resource sector. Contact:
katharine.mccallion@gov.bc.ca
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Climate CIRCulator (Oregon Climate Change Research Institute)
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Climate Impacts Group (Univ. Washington)
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Earth to Sky Newsletter (NASA/DOI Partnership): anita.l.davis@nasa.gov
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EPA Climate Change and Water E-Newsletter
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FRESC monthly e-newsletter: Contact fresc_outreach@usgs.gov
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FWS CC Monthly E-Newsletter: Contact kate_freund@fws.gov
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LCC list servers (see your LCC’s website) and the national LCC Network newsletter
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Ocean Acidification Report
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OneNOAA Science Webinars
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NASA's Climate Change Newsletter climate-feedback@jpl.nasa.gov
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North Pacific LCC Listserve – North Pacific Tidings - important news and
announcements; and NPLCC Climate Science Digest - new science/information
affecting natural and cultural resources.
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NCTC Climate Change List server (upcoming webinars and courses): contact
christy_coghlan@fws.gov
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Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions (PICS) (British Columbia) Climate News Scan- a
weekly summary of the major climate-change related science, technology, and policy
advances of direct relevance to the BC provincial and the Canadian federal governments
and more generally to businesses and civil society
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PointBlue Weekly Ecology, Climate Change and Related e-Newsletter: Contact
ecohen@prbo.org
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PNW Tribal Climate Change Network: Contact kathy@uoregon.edu
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US Forest Service Fish & Wildlife Research Updates
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USGS Climate Matters
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White House Energy and Environment Updates