SmartGrowth Strategy Update: Discussion Document: Tauranga Urban Network Study: Executive Summary Prepared by: TUNS Project Group November 2012 Tauranga Urban Network Study 1. Executive Summary The Tauranga Urban Network Study (TUNS) provides the long-term direction for development of Tauranga’s urban arterial road network over the next 30 years. It forms the SmartGrowth Central Corridor investigation and aligns with previous studies undertaken on the Northern, Western and Eastern external corridors as shown below. The scope and scale of the Tauranga Urban Network Study (TUNS) is defined as the arterial road network contained within the area shown overleaf. This includes State Highways (operated by NZTA) and local arterial corridors (operated by Tauranga City Council) as well as the role of rail in conveying freight and thereby reducing impacts on the road network. The city and its urban surrounds have a history of strong growth and this is projected to continue. The infrastructure needed to support and manage this growth is being planned for through the SmartGrowth collaboration between three councils – Tauranga City Council, Western Bay of Plenty District Council and Bay of Plenty Regional Council – as well as NZTA and key regional stakeholders. TUNS will form the evidence base for the Tauranga Transport Strategy which will include an indicative implementation plan. The structure of the Tauranga Transport Strategy is shown below. TUNS provides the arterial road network component of the overall SmartGrowth strategy required to support and manage growth across Tauranga. TUNS is consistent with the Regional Land Transport Strategy 2011-2041 (RLTS), whose vision is Best transport systems for a growing economy and a safe and vibrant Bay lifestyle. To deliver the vision of the RLTS an approach based on upon an Optimised Transport System has been defined, based on the NZTA Hierarchy of Interventions approach. This follows analysis of future demands that found a ‘business as usual’ approach would result in levels of private vehicle use that would present significant challenges, especially in urban areas at peak times, and have detrimental effects on the economy. Lower cost Intervention Hierarchy (NZTA) Optimised Transport System (RLTS) Integrated Planning Land use and transport integration Best use of existing infrastructure Freight Management Demand Management Demand Management Sustainable transport infrastructure New infrastructure Higher cost Road network safety Road improvements (inc safety) The Optimised Transport System assumes the sequential implementation of regional roading priorities and places an emphasis on low cost, innovative demand management and freight management measures, supported by appropriate investments in roading, public transport, walking and cycling that are targeted to make the best use of the existing network. Specific investment in rail to improve capacity and efficiency plays a key role in the freight management measures. Modelling of regional travel demands found that even in a low travel demand scenario, carbased transport modes (driver and car-passenger) will make up approximately 74% of trips and 85% of kilometres travelled in the region in 2040. The road network will remain the backbone of the regional transport system even if the growth in demand is increasingly accommodated in other ways. Consequently, continued investment in roading improvements will be necessary. TUNS has revealed three distinct corridors within the study area, each performing different functions for a variety of road users. These are shown below: The Ring Road North corridor A key current and future function of the Ring Road North Corridor is to provide road freight access to the Port of Tauranga for import and export of primary products: • to/from the Waikato via State Highway (SH) 29, ‘Route K’ and SH2 • to/from the Coromandel and Hauraki Plains via SH2 (through Bethlehem) • to/from the central North Island (e.g. Taupo) via SH2 (to Paengaroa) and SH33. The Government Policy Statement on Land Transport Funding (GPS) puts a high priority on improving freight efficiency across New Zealand. As the country’s largest export port by volume, it is essential to ensure that this corridor operates as efficiently as possible, enabling freight operators to transport goods to market. Linked to this, the role of the East Coast Main Trunk railway line in reducing truck trips to the Port and supporting efficient access to Auckland and the Waikato is recognised and supported. Competing with the key freight function in this corridor is regional demand for private vehicle access to the city centre and through the city from Tauranga’s peri-urban (e.g. Bethlehem, Otumoetai, Papamoa) and rural hinterland (e.g. Katikati, Te Puna and Omokoroa). The same section of corridor also provides for tourist trips along the Pacific Coast Highway – another major contributor to the regional and national economy. The Ring Road South corridor The increasing function of this corridor is to provide for intra-regional and city-wide access to employment and commercial centres for developing residential areas alongside and south of State Highway 29 over the next 30 years. The constrained physical geography of this corridor focuses travel demand along and across SH29, between the SH29/Route K intersection and the SH2/29 intersection at Te Maunga. A second function which will again increase over time is to provide an alternative route for through traffic to relieve the Ring Road North corridor and enable the continuation of high quality access to the Port and City Centre. The Peninsula corridor The Peninsula Corridor provides for a wide variety of traffic functions, typical of an urban arterial network in New Zealand. Intra-regional freight, tourist, commercial, commuter and other private traffic functions are ‘in the mix’ across the peninsula and are added to by the convergence of citybound trips from the Ring Road North and South Corridors. Enabling good connections between the Peninsula and Ring Road North Corridors will assist with continuing to separate shorter and longer distance trips in coming years. 2. Implications for SmartGrowth Settlement Pattern Review The TUNS investigation has revealed a number of key findings for the SmartGrowth review and these are detailed below. TUNS Traffic Predictions TUNS has provided an assessment of Tauranga’s strategic roading network, using the TTM (version 5.8), incrementally towards 2040 based on the predicted uptake rate of settlement derived from SmartGrowth up to Generation 3 and including broad assumptions regarding urban intensification and fringe development encompassed by Generation 4. The results have been peer reviewed and accepted by all TUNS partners. The model provides a detailed assessment of links and intersections during peak traffic periods in steps of five years to capture the changing population densities and regional demographics and reports loss of functionality through traffic volumes and congestion as a Level of Service. The target minimum LOS for the strategic network is D and non-strategic network during peak traffic is E, which allows for managed traffic flows close to saturation, but not a breakdown in flow conditions. It therefore accepts some congestion at intersections but not excessive delay. This approach has yet to be tested for feasibility, including in particular the affordability of interventions required. This is likely to identify where trade-offs are required around the network to achieve the desired outcomes. It is desirable that the network levels of service are also consistent with the national approach currently under development to support the National Road Classification System and State Highway Classification System. Urban Growth Areas (UGA’s) The UGAs indicated by the current SmartGrowth predictions place an extreme level of commuter demand on the Tauranga strategic network in Generation 4, where an anticipated 60% of all growth will occur. The predicted growth scenarios modelled in the Tauranga Transport Model (TTM) differ from those reported in the UGA review. Furthermore, the development rate in TTM is derived from a marketdepressed 2010 value, during the peak of the GFC, and therefore the TUNS results are roughly 5 years behind UGA in terms of rate of uptake. The relationship between the horizon year in the TTM is approximately equivalent to the mid-point of generation 4, say 2040. The modelling indicates a number of areas where the anticipated growth scenario concentrates and compounds traffic effects on the strategic roading network. The outcome is anticipated to be: Infrastructure investment to provide capacity augmentation, or Reallocation of growth areas to alternative locations where low growth is predicted and there is also available road capacity which has not been realised, or A combination of both. This demand is exacerbated or absorbed by the choice of area allocated for development as follows: The joint Ohauiti/Neewood/Pukemapu catchment anticipates 20% of Generation 4 growth (5,075). This area is effectively a large cul-de-sac, separated from the CBD, employment and services by SH29 and its already congested intersections. The eastern catchments of Te Tumu, Te Puke and Wairakei amount to 36% of Generation 3 (4,321) and 41% of Generation 4 (10,168) growth. However, these areas are well served by SH2 and the TEL which is anticipated to be complete in 2016, prior to significant expansion into Generation 3 development. Pyes Pa amounts to 23% of Generation 3 (2,764) and less than 5% of Generation 4 (1,142). This area is well served by SH36 and Pyes Pa Road but still feeds traffic directly into the congested intersections at the Lakes (Route K) and Barkes Corner. Welcome Bay only predicts modest growth, which, whist exacerbating the congestion on the approach to Hairini Roundabout is unlikely to create an additional problem in itself. A high proportion of traffic is anticipated to use Turret Road (SH2a) to access the CBD and northern areas, putting unsustainable demands on SH2a and SH29 and in particular the Hairini and Poike intersections. The Pukemapu and Oropi catchments rely entirely on Oropi Road and its intersection with SH29. The Northern corridor growth represents 36% of Generation 3 (4,275) and 31% of Generation 4 (7,693) and relies exclusively on SH2. The congested Bethlehem area and bottleneck at Wairoa Bridge restrict capacity and reduce levels of service at an early stage. Modelling Traffic Demand and Network Performance The TTM (version 5.8) has been developed to predict the traffic growth and its impacts on the Tauranga network, based on the 2010 UGA settlement pattern. The following table demonstrates changes in LOS along strategic corridors as a result of the predicated growth pattern and uptake. In general, the urban network will be governed by the intersection efficiency, although the link capacity gives a good indication of the demands. The table below reports the lowest level of service on each of the strategic corridors described above. To simplify the referencing, the corridors are as follows: Ring Road North Corridor: SH29 from Omanawa Road to Route K roundabout, Route K, SH 2 from Route K to Domain Road Peninsula Corridor: SH2a from Hairini roundabout to Cameron Road and Cameron Road from Barkes Corner to Chapel Street Ring Road South Corridor: SH29 from Omanawa Road to Te Maunga intersection Lowest LOS on Corridor Model Year 2011 2016 2016 (I) 2021 2021 (I) 2026 2026 (I) 2031 2031 (I) Ring Road North Ring Road South Peninsula SH29 RT K SH2 (Tk) SH2 (Mt) SH2 (S) Cameron SH2a SH29 E F F F F F F F F B B B C C D C C C C D D E E E E E D E E E E E E E E E E F F D D D D D D E E E E E E E E E E F F F F F E E E E F F F F F F F F External SmartGrowth corridors: North: SH2 (N) from Katikati to Bethlehem South: SH2 (S) from Te Puke to Domain Road West: SH29 west of Omanawa Road Model Year 2011 2016 2016 (I) 2021 2021 (I) 2026 2026 (I) 2031 2031 (I) West External North South SH29 SH2 (N) SH2 (S) D D D D D D D E E E F F F F F F F D E E B B B B B B B The LOS reported is the minimum along the corridor for each scenario. “(I)” refers to the network performance after intervention to alleviate intersection congestion and capacity augmentation. A number of these projects are currently the subject of detailed investigation. Others are assumed at this stage and have not been tested for feasibility or affordability. A more detailed description is contained in Appendix 4 of TUNS. It is evident from the modelling that a number of key routes are significantly impacted upon and that high cost infrastructure investment is likely to be required in response to take-up of the current development pattern, particularly along SH2N and SH29, to avoid unacceptable levels of service. In some cases there is little improvement evident following intervention as all the capacity enhancement is taken up by a release in suppressed demand created by intensification of development. This has the effect of simply transferring the problem to another intersection or road link which in turn will require intervention: While Hairini Stage 4 is expected to provide significant travel time improvements on SH29, levels of service on Welcome Bay Road and Turret Road are likely to remain an issue. Girven Road close to Maunganui Road drops to LOS F following the opening of the TEL in 2016. SH29 west of Route K remains at LOS E up to 2021, when it is anticipated that capacity improvements (i.e. Tauriko upgrade project) are necessary to overcome congestion and the problems at Cambridge Road intersection. Bethlehem links to the CBD in Generation 4 are all at LOS E (or better) Apart from key intersections (notably on 15th and 11th) the urban network between Greerton and the CBD operates with LOS C or better throughout. The Strategic Road Network Previous transport investment Delivery of the infrastructure required in a fast growing city over previous decades (and including SmartGrowth Generations 1, 2 and 3) has already resulted in significant investment across the TUNS study area. Previous investments include: 1944 1954 1959 1963 1960's 1960's 1976 1978 1979 1980 1988 1989 1992 1993 1994 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2007 2007 2007 2008 Tauranga Airfield constructed Mount Maunganui Port opens, permitting first log shipments Chapel Street bridge constructed Tauranga declared a city (20,000 residents) Second Turret Road bridge constructed to replace the original wooden structure Maungatapu Bridge constructed Tauranga Area Transportation Study Kaimai Rail tunnel opens Sulphur Point Container Terminal opens Maungatapu bypass opens First Harbour Bridge opens as a 2 lane toll road (only toll road in the country) Tauranga District and Mount Maunganui Borough Councils merge Waikareao Expressway opens Tauranga District Transportation Plan Access Partnership Group established Route P opens Route J opens PJK Intersection completed Route K opens as a toll road Urban bus network re-launched SmartGrowth sub-regional land use strategy launched Access Partnership transitions into Smart Transport Group focussed on delivery of transport elements of SmartGrowth Hewletts Road widening and traffic signals completed Hairini Stage One (Signalisation of Welcome Bay Roundabout) complete Hewletts Road flyover opens 2009 2010 Four lane Harbourlink crossing opens Hairini Stage Two (Upgrade of 15th Avenue and Fraser Street intersection plus pedestrian crossing at Burrows Street) complete 2011 2011 Pyes Pa Bypass opens Expansion of the Sulphur Point Container Terminal begins Issues affecting the current Strategic Road Network These include: Maranui/Arataki: Detailed improvement investigations are underway for the Maunganui/Girven and Te Maunga intersections. To ease congestion, the Sandhurst link (under construction) will assist with local traffic diversion. Gloucester Street and Grenada Street links will provide improved connectivity and alternative routes from Arataki through to Papamoa, however, they are reliant on developer timing. Port of Tauranga Access: Long-term freight growth forecasts for POT raise issues of arterial road capacity for Route K, SH2, Mirrilees Road/ Marsh Street and Matapihi Rail Bridge. Hewletts Road: A key access to the port it serves state highway and local trip function. Capacity emerges as an issue within the next 10 years. Hairini Link Following stages 1 and 2 completed in recent years, stage 4 of the project (Welcome Bay Road/Turret Road underpass under SH29) is currently proceeding through a designation process. Key Impacts of the UGAs on the Strategic Road Network UGA Omokoroa Stage 1 and Northern Growth Pyes Pa West/ Tauriko Southern Corridor UGA’s GENERATION 3 4 Traffic volume pressures increase through Wairoa Bridge and Bethlehem to Takitimu Drive route. Bethlehem significantly constrained by land use and road corridor width. Intersection of SH2 and Omokoroa Road becomes a significant bottleneck and safety risk that is contributed to by Omokoroa growth. Capacity issue at SH29/ Route K intersection and SH36/ Taurikura Drive develops in longer term. SH 29 is currently a nationally strategic high volume freight route in Tauranga network. In the traffic modeling cumulative pressures arise on the route with new development areas feeding in, as there are insufficient local, parallel links between southern suburbs and UGA GENERATION 3 4 to the CBD. Traffic effects arise at all intersections along SH29 from Maungatapu – Tauriko. Capacity issue at SH29/ Route K intersection develops in the longer term. Tauriko Tauriko improvement project aims to improve Tauriko village safety and improve road / freight connection to port. There is also potential to feed into southern extension of Tauriko business land and Belk Road area Te Tumu Papamoa East interchange is a key piece of infrastructure for Te Tumu to develop. Other road feeders are extensions to Papamoa Beach Road, The Boulevard, Te Okuroa Drive. Kaituna Bridge link to Rangiuru may be required to address alternative access issues. Population assumptions are a technical issue that needs further discussion. Omokoroa Stage 2 and Northern Growth Levels of service are expected to continue to be affected by ongoing growth throughout the Northern Corridor. The Northern Corridor Strategy outlines an indicative package of interventions to respond to these cumulative growth effects. There are a range of transport interventions outlined in the package, which requires further work to optimise, including staging of the responses. Opportunities to Reallocate Demand If the Cambridge Road/SH29 intersection were treated earlier or the corridor capacity improvements accelerated, growth in the western corridor could be sustained for several years encompassing Generation 3 and at least the first quarter of Generation 4 demand. The opportunity may exist to promote development of the Tauriko catchment with a lower impact on the strategic roading network than that of the Oropi and Ohauiti and associated areas. The current model scenario is being refined to examine this possibility and report on the associated network effects. Similarly, SH36 has capacity up to 2026 to accommodate development in the Pyes Pa and Tauriko areas, until the roundabout at the Lakes (IMF) requires intervention to improve capacity. The growth in Bethlehem should be examined, as links via Waihi Road and Chapel Street are expected to have residual capacity throughout the assessment period (up to 2031) The Tauranga Traffic Model v5.8 (TTM) does include predictions related to in-fill and intensification of development through the short, medium and long terms. TTM is currently based on 2010 SmartGrowth predictions which are recognised as being higher in all aspects than updated 2011 figures. Based on TTM, indications are that in-fill and intensification have only a limited or marginal effect on the performance of arterial and non-strategic networks. There are some potential anecdotal effects on the ability for local road users to enter/exit collector or secondary arterials in suburban areas at peak times. However, as there are unlikely to be significant upgrades to these non-strategic roads, in reality these will be managed operationally to ensure user safety. A greater risk for transport network is that in-fill or intensification does not occur which is likely to have the effect of expanding the need for greenfield development. From a transport perspective this has greater consequences due to longer trip distances and increased reliance on arterial networks, including State Highways.Alternative links between growth areas and destinations should also be taken into consideration, such as parallel routes to the strategic network that can reduce demand (spread the load) during peak hours, cross linkages between zones and catchments can provide greater choices in terms of trip distribution. Possible examples include linkage between the Lakes and Welcome Bay providing an alternative route for local traffic and relieving the strategic SH29 corridor. It will include connectivity to Oropi, Ohauiti and Pyes Pa. However, these linkages are likely to be expensive, due to topographical and land constraints, or it may be simply impossible to secure a corridor due to land ownership issues. The cost and buildability constraints should be evaluated against the potential value and compared with investment in the current infrastructure, as well as the alternative land use scenarios discussed above. Making best use of available network capacity Road network performance forecasts for the medium-term indicate a number of locations within the Tauranga network where reallocation of the planned growth (through expansion, intensification and/or infill) would optimise existing network performance by utilising sections of the network where Levels of Service are predicted to be no worse than C or D. A number of such areas exist but these are yet to be tested for feasibility.