POLS 306 Public Policy
Spring 14
Foreign and Defense Policy Part 2
Chapter 15 Tom Dye
“We cannot wait for the smoking gun to become
a mushroom cloud.”
Then National Security Advisor, later Secretary of State, Dr. Condoleezza Rice
1) Deterrence
Criminal Justice
Known punishments will prevent certain actions by fear of consequences
Defense
Maintains peace through fear of retaliation.
1) Credible Threat
Ability to Survive 1st strike; willingness to launch 2nd strike
2) Rational Enemy
Swift, Sure, Severe – Breccaria
Mutually Assured Destruction
Keeps nations from launching 1st strike
2) Arms Control
SALT I (1972) and II (1979)– Kissinger and Nixon
START I (1991) and II – Reagan then Bush (II never really happens)
Moscow Treaty (2002) GW Bush and Putin
RE-Start – Obama and Putin, oh sorry, Medvedev
NewSTART – Effective Feb 2011
Nuclear arsenals reduced more than 80% from Cold War Levels
Star Wars, SDI and Smart Bombs
3) Pre-emption
A first strike in response to an imminent and extreme threat.
Why do we shift from deterrence to pre-emption?
4) The Bush Doctrine
“We will make no distinction between the terrorists who committed these acts and those
who harbor them.”
5) Terrorism
Deterrence requires an ability to survive a finite first strike and launch a second.
Terrorism depends on a series of random, society crippling attacks.
Deterrence requires a rational, identifiable, unified enemy.
Rogue states and terrorist groups are none of the above.
6) Recent US Military History
Gulf War 1:
Iraq invades Kuwait
“Desert Storm” August 1990
– 500,000 troops
Cap Weinberger has built up substantial force during Reagan era.
One hundred hours of ground fighting
Gulf War 2:
9/11/01 attacks
“Enduring Freedom” October 2001- present (12.5 years)
Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan
International coalition
“Iraqi Freedom” March 19, 2003 - December 2011
Saddam Hussein in Iraq
Multi-national coalition
– 250, 000 troops
Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld has built a “lean” military with a
light footprint; air and ground attacks began simultaneously.
“What Went Wrong in Iraq?”
Preemptive Strike on terrorism
Limited troops
Peacekeeper role
“Nation Building” role
No exit strategy
Sectarian Violence/Civil strife
Loss of backbone/will/public support
7) Force Levels
Weinberger doctrine –Shafrtiz (page 316)
Powell Doctrine -
Compare and Contrast
Similar rhetoric; disparate results?
8) Where’s the next hotspot? (Country reports)