International financial markets PROF. FRANTZ PASCAL RENÉ COURSE AIMS This course is a course about characteristics of financial markets and optimal investment strategies with a strong focus on asset pricing, active portfolio management and risk immunization, portfolio performance evaluation, the predictability of returns through fundamental and technical analysis, and behavioral finance. Its aim is to provide a thorough understanding of both market finance and operations of financial markets, focusing on equity and bond markets. COURSE CONTENT The topics covered in this course include: Single-factor and multi-factor models. Optimal portfolio selection (asset allocation and security selection). Optimal investment strategy when privately informed. Return-based trading strategies and algorithmic (program) trading. Risk and portfolio performance evaluation. Historical performance of mutual funds and hedge funds. Anatomy of a market abnomaly. Organization of financial markets and exchanges. Determinants of bid-ask spreads. Implications of market microstructure for trading. Returns to technical analysis. Behavioral finance; The term structure of interest rates and bond portfolio management; Risk management: portfolio insurance, portfolio immunization, and value-at-risk. Lecture 1: Optimal Portfolio Selection Introduction to the course. The Markowitz portfolio selection problem. Asset allocation. Security selection. The power of diversification. Lecture 2: Single-Factor and Multi-Factor Models Single-factor models. Multi-factor models. Lecture 3: Measuring Equity Portfolio Performance Measuring Portfolio Returns. Some Common Performance Measures; Sharpe, Treynor, Jensen and M 2. Measuring market timing ability; Lecture 4: Active Portfolio Management Historical performance of mutual funds and hedge funds. Optimal investment strategy when privately informed. Return-based trading strategies and algorithmic (program) trading. Lecture 5: Anatomy of a Market Anomaly Implications of accruals and cash-flows components of current earnings for future earnings [Sloan (1996)]. Evidence on subsequent weakening of the returns on Sloan’s hedge portfolio [Green, Hand and Soliman (2011)]. Role of hedge funds in the weakening of the returns on Sloan’s hedge portfolio [Hazfalla, Lundholm, and Van Winkle (2011)]. Revival of the accruals anomaly. Behavioural Finance Readings: Green, J.M., J.R. Hand and M.T. Soliman ‘Going, Going, Gone? The Apparent Demise of the Accruals Abnomaly’, Management Science (57) 2011, pp. 797-816. Hazfalla, N., R. Lundholm, and E.M. Van Winkle ‘Percent Accruals’, Accounting Review (86) 2011, pp. 209-236. Sloan, R. (1996) “Do Stock Prices Fully Reflect Information in Accruals and Cash flows about Future Earnings?”, Accounting Review. Lecture 6: Efficient Markets and History Dependent Trading Strategies Weak-form efficiency. The random walk model. Tests of return autocorrelation. Returns to momentum strategies. Returns to contrarian strategies. Readings: N. Jegadeesh and S. Titman (1993) “Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency”, Journal of Finance, 48, 65-91; Lecture 7: The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Bond Portfolio Management Yield Curves, Forward Rates and Holding Period Returns under Certainty; Term Structure Analysis under Uncertainty; Bond Portfolio Management and Immunisation Lecture 8: Market Microstructure Microstructure concepts. The cost of immediacy. Inventory control and dealer behaviour. Asymmetric information models and quotes and prices. Implications of market microstructure for serial correlation in returns. Implications of market microstructure for trading. Readings: Chapter 3 [ Investments (Bodie, Kane and Marcus)] Chapter 1 [Market Microstructure Theory (O’Hara)] H. Stoll (1978) “The Supply of Dealer Services in Securities Markets”, Journal of Finance, 33, 13-1151. A. Kyle (1985) “Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading“, Econometrica, 53, 1315-1336. L. Glosten and P. Milgrom (1985) “Bid, Ask and Transaction Prices in a Specialist Market with Heterogeneously Informed Traders“, Journal of Financial Economics, 13, 71-100. Lecture 9: Risk management Portfolio insurance. Portfolio immunization. Value-at-risk. READING LIST Modern Portfolio Theory and Investment Analysis: International Student Version by Edwin J. Elton, Martin J. Gruber, Stephen J. Brown and William N. Goetzmann (March 2010). TEACHING METHOD Lectures. ASSESSMENT METHOD Final Exam.