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Supporting Information
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Table S1. Influence of daily temperature (T°C) and rainfall on mosquito and malaria parasite
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model parameters using the model from Samuel et al. (2011). Table includes description,
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equation, dimension, and source. D is the cumulative number of days with < 5 mm rainfall. R is
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the cumulative mm rainfall during three consecutive days.
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Parameter
Description
Equation
Dimension
Source
lgc(T)
length gonotrophic cycle
241 × 𝑇 −1.11
days
1
d(T)
larval maturation rate
𝑇 − 10
179
1/days
2
μ(D)
larval mortality rate
𝑒 −ωD
)
β + 𝑒 −ωD
1/days
2
ω
drought impact on larval survival
0.53
-
2
β
default survival of larvae (D = 0)
0.0315
-
2
μ(R)
adult mortality rate
(
𝑅 ≤ 255 → 0.073
)
𝑅 > 255 → 0.95
1/days
2
d⁡×⁡(T)
malaria development rate
0.0116 × 𝑇 − 0.1504
1/days
3
−ln⁡(
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8
9
10
11
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Sources: 1 = LaPointe (2000); 2 = Ahumada et al. (2004); 3 = LaPointe et al. (2010).
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Table S2. Comparison parameters and equations between Samuel et al. (2011) model (Old
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Model) and our revised model (New Model). APAP=Apapane, IIWI=Iiwi, HAAM=Amakihi,
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JAWE = Japanese White-eye, BNative=APAP+IIWI+HAAM, Btot= BNative+BJAWE, T=daily
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temperature, trf computes the date of current day.
Parameter
Old Model
New Model
Reason
Description
Malaria
development rate
𝑇 − 12.6
𝑑 . = max⁡(0,
)
84
𝑑 . = max⁡(0, 0.0116𝑇
Field test
− 0.1504)
Transmission
prob. Per bite
from infectious
q = 0.98
q = 0.96
Field test
𝑒 −6.76+0.322𝑇
1 + 𝑒 −6.76+0.322𝑇
Lab result
mosquito to
susceptible birds
Transmission
prob. per bite
from recovered
𝑐 ′ (𝑇)
−2.18+0.17𝑇
birds to
𝑒
=
1 + 𝑒 −2.18+0.17𝑇
𝑐 ′ (𝑇) =
susceptible
mosquitoes
𝑀∗ = 𝑀 ×
Total Mosquito
𝐵𝐽𝐴𝑊𝐸
× 0.1 +
𝐵𝑡𝑜𝑡
M
Number
Field test
𝐵𝑁𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒
⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡𝑀 ×
× 0.66
𝐵𝑡𝑜𝑡
Adding
if
susceptible and
trf == 213
Sm = Sm +150; Im = Im +
infected
50;
Sm,
mosquitoes on
else
Field test
Im
specific day
Sm = Sm+0; Im = Im + 0;
(August 1st) each
end
year
Daily disease-
APAP:0.031
induced mortality IIWI: 0.07
of native birds
APAP: 0.02
Samuel et
IIWI: 0.064
al. (2015)
0.0063⁡⁡𝑎𝑡⁡𝑙𝑜𝑤
0.0008⁡⁡𝑎𝑡⁡𝑙𝑜𝑤
𝐻𝐴𝐴𝑀: {
𝐻𝐴𝐴𝑀: {
0.025⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡𝑜. 𝑤
0.036⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡𝑜. 𝑤
Ecosphere
In press
∆𝐹 = 𝐹𝑚𝑖𝑑 − 𝐹ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ
Birds
∆𝑡 = 𝑇𝑑𝑎𝑦 − 𝑇ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ
response to
𝑖𝑓⁡∆𝐹⁡ ≥ 0⁡𝑎𝑛𝑑⁡∆𝑡⁡ ≥ 0
⁡⁡⁡⁡𝑛𝑒𝑤⁡𝐹ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ
Increased
fecundity at high
elevation due to
warming
F
= min (𝐹ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ
+
∆𝐹 × ∆𝑡
, 𝐹𝑚𝑖𝑑)
2.6
else
⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡𝑛𝑒𝑤⁡𝐹ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ = 𝐹ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ
end
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warm
temperature
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Table S3. Elevation, climate, bird abundance, and carrying capacity of mosquito larvae for each elevation on the Island of Hawai´i.
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For each elevation, average climate data during the years 1980-2004 from the nine study sites in Samuel et al. (2011) Table B1
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and B2. APAP=Apapane, IIWI=Iiwi, HAAM=Amakihi, JAWE = Japanese White-eye.
Elevation
Mean
Yearly
Percentage
No. Heavy
KL
Temperature
Rainfall
dry days
rainfall
(female
(°C)
(mm)
per year
per year
mosquito
APAP
IIWI
HAAM
JAWE
larvae/km2)
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
High
14.25
2098
72
1.8
75343
2603
775
902
1169
Mid
16.95
3006
80
2.7
103752
1927
109
394
2697
Low
22.4
2790
87
1.1
73553
1091
96
1102
2233
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Figure S1. Host-vector-parasite epidemiological model. Mosquitoes develop from larvae to
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susceptible adults (Sus Mos). Sus Mos become infected latent mosquitoes (Lat Mos) after biting
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the acutely infected (YI/AI) and chronic infected (YR/AR) native (Amakihi, Iiwi, and Apapane)
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and introduced (Japanese White-eye) birds. Malaria parasites mature in the Lat Mos which
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become the infective mosquitoes (Inf Mos) that transfer malaria parasites to susceptible (YS/AS)
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birds. Temperature and Rainfall impact mosquito development (Larvae to Sus Mos) rate,
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parasites mature rate (Lat Mos to Inf Mos) and infection. Reproduced from Samuel et al. (2011).
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Figure S2. Map of the study sites with the projected rainfall changes for dry seasons on the
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Island of Hawai´i. The subplots from left to right are percent rainfall variations under RCP8.5 (a),
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A1B (b), and RCP4.5 (c) climate change projections (See text for climate projection details).
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Stars represent study sites on the Island of Hawai´i at high ( altitude > 1600 m), mid ( altitude
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500 ~1200 m), and low elevation ( altitude < 400 m).
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Figure S3. Map of the study sites with the projected rainfall changes for wet season on the Island
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of Hawai´i. The subplots from left to right are percent rainfall variations under RCP8.5 (a), A1B
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(b), and RCP4.5 (c) climate change projections (See text for climate projection details). Stars
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represent study sites on the Island of Hawai´i at high ( altitude > 1600 m), mid ( altitude 500
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~1200 m), and low elevation ( altitude < 400 m).
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Figure S4. Predicted 10-year mean mosquito densities (per km2) under three climate change
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projections (RCP8.5 (red line), A1B (blue line), and RCP4.5 (green line)) at high (a), mid (b),
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and low elevation (c) during the 21st century.
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Figure S5. Predicted 10-year mean infected mosquito densities (per km2) under three climate
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change projections (RCP8.5 (red line), A1B (blue line), and RCP4.5 (green line)) at high (a), mid
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(b), and low elevation (c) during the 21st century.
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Figure S1
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Figure S2
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Figure S3
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Figure S4
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Figure S5