Theory of Change Factsheet
Your organisation aims to make an impact on people and communities, perhaps even to
change the world. You believe in your work and can see that it makes a difference, but can
you clearly demonstrate the impact that you make? More and more organisations are using
a ‘theory of change’ approach to explain how they make an impact and more funders value
this information.
When spending money on a project, funders and commissioners want to know what
outcomes will be achieved with the money that they are spending. However, on top of
asking what will be achieved, funders are increasingly interested in the detail about how an
organisation will make that impact. This is where a ‘theory of change’ can be useful.
Most organisations have thought about the long term goals of their work and the outcomes
they are aiming to achieve. A theory of change takes this thinking further and sets out a
roadmap of how the long term goals will be achieved, including all of the building blocks
that contribute to this.
A theory of change is usually summarised by drawing a one page diagram such as the
example on page 4, which is quick to read and understand. This creates a clear view of
your work, breaking it down into simple steps that capture key aspects of what you do.
Used well, it should give you: a clear and testable understanding of how change will occur,
a framework for monitoring and evaluation, and provide the basis for both accountability
and learning.
How will a theory of change help our organisation?
A theory of change can help your organisation, because:
 It can be a great basis for a strategic plan, because it works methodically from the
need you are trying to address to the change you want to achieve.
 It provides a theoretical framework for measuring a charity’s impact.
 It can also be used to think more broadly about how different organisations within a
sector are working together, and how they could achieve greater impact through
collaboration.
Why was ‘Theory of Change’ created?
Theories of Change are becoming more popular, but they are not new. They have been
used since the 1990’s, particularly in international development, in response to the
challenge of assessing the impact of complex social development programmes.
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How does it work?
The process is just as important as the final result and you should involve a
range of staff, trustees and other stakeholders from all areas of the organisation, when
designing your theory of change.
The following diagram is a brief description of how to start working on a theory of change.
You may want to refer to the example below to help you understand the process.
A good theory of change can reveal whether your organisation’s current activities make
sense, given your goals; which activities and outcomes you can achieve alone and which
you cannot, plus how to measure your impact.
Voscur can help your organisation to work on a theory of change, by providing support and
advice.
The following websites have useful information on Theory of Change
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http://www.theoryofchange.org/
http://www.thinknpc.org/publications/theory-of-change/
http://diytoolkit.org/tools/theory-of-change/
http://www.ces-vol.org.uk/tools-and-resources/Evaluation-methods/makingconnections-tools
http://www.bond.org.uk/theory-of-change-the-essentials
http://www.supporthub.org.uk/resources/theory-change
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Step 1: The approach starts by thinking about what you want to achieve, not what you are
already doing, so you begin with:
- The problem you’re trying to solve, including the underlying causes
- Your long term goals. They should be realistic and clearly defined.
Step 2: Working backwards from your long term goals, you then identify the steps
needed to achieve these goals, including:
Outcomes - The changes that need to take place along the way
Activities - The things that need to happen to achieve these changes (For example, you
might argue that children attending school a minimum number of days is necessary if they
are going to learn)
The outcomes and activities should be put in order in a diagram, showing how they link
together.
Think about causes and effects to enable you to establish the links between your outcomes
and activities. You should question whether one outcome really does lead to the next and
what your reasons are for believing that.
Step 3: The other key things that you consider and include in a theory of change are:
- Underlying assumptions or evidence – For example, you may assume that a service user
will be supported by their family, or that regularly attending a day centre session will enable
a person to make new friends.
- What else is needed? Does the success of your work depend on other stakeholders or
resources being involved?
- Indicators and targets – What specifically will you measure?
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