Pacific Region Climate Change Science
August 2014 Issue
A monthly e-newsletter aimed at helping you stay connected to climate change science that is relevant and
integral to our conservation work. Do you have a new published article you would like to share? Please send it
our way. And many thanks to those who have provided material for this edition!
The Region One Climate Change Science Digest consists of two versions, targeting emails accordingly for the
Pacific Northwest and the Pacific Islands. FWS employees can find both Digests and past issues on the Climate
Change Sharepoint site, or can request copies via email. [Learning opportunities are also now provided
separately.] A national level FWS climate change e-newsletter is also available—you must register with Kate
Freund to be added to the mailing list.
David Patte
Climate Change Coordinator (Senior Advisor on Ecosystem Change)
US Fish and Wildlife Service, Pacific Region, Portland, Oregon
(503) 231-6210
At-a-Glance Quick Links (Abstracts and Weblinks are Below)
North Pacific LCC 2014 Projects Announced
LCC Network Update
Climate Change Education- New Regional Guides for Education Available
Columbia River Basin Impacts Assessment
Biodiversity/Species and Ecosystem Response
Estimating Climate Resilience for Conservation across Geophysical Settings
Is adaptation to climate change really constrained in niche specialists?
Seasonal not annual rainfall determines grassland biomass response to carbon dioxide
Arid ecosystems
How will increases in rainfall intensity affect semiarid ecosystems?
Coastal/Marine Ecosystems/Ocean Acidification/Sea Level Rise
Ocean’s most oxygen-deprived zones to shrink under climate change
Long-term sea level trends: Natural or anthropogenic?
NOAA: ‘Nuisance flooding’ an increasing problem as coastal sea levels rise
EPA Climate Ready Estuaries Program Launches Redesigned Website
USGS Coastal Change Hazard Portal
West Coast Ocean Acidification and Hypoxia Science Panel: An Exciting New Vision
Aquatic Resources/Stream Flow/Hydrology in the Western U.S.
Climate Change, Crowd-Sourcing, and Conserving Aquatic Biotas in the Rocky Mountains This Century
Snowpack regimes of the Western United States
NorWeST adds Oregon Coast stream temperature climate scenarios & database to online availability
Stream temperature Variability: Why it matters to Salmon
Fire
Big Fires More Frequent Across Western Region
Climate Change Journal Articles/Publications/News
Hotter Days, Heavier Rains Projected for United States
Attribution of global glacier mass loss to anthropogenic and natural causes
Ancient shellfish remains rewrite 10,000-year history of El Niño cycles
Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming
Threat to future global food security from climate change and ozone air pollution
The rise in atmospheric water vapor—a significant greenhouse gas—over the past 30 years can be tied to
human activities
Tribal and Indigenous Peoples Matters
Indigenous Experiences in the U.S. with Climate Change and Environmental Stewardship in the
Anthropocene
Indigenous community health and climate change: integrating biophysical and social science indicators
Taking Action
Maintaining Resilience in the Face of Climate Change
Science integration into US climate and ocean policy
Opportunities to Reduce Federal Fiscal Exposures Through Greater Resilience to Climate Change and
Extreme Weather
Connect with the American Society of Adaptation Professionals
Climate and Weather Reports and Services
State of the Climate: Hottest June on Record
Links to online climate services and newsletters (multiple entries)
List Servers and FWS Tools (Multiple Entries)
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North Pacific LCC
The North Pacific LCC announced FY 2014 funding for projects. Click here
for project summaries.
The funded projects are:

Incorporating Spatial Heterogeneity in Temperature into Climate
Vulnerability Assessments for Coastal Pacific Streams
 Nooksack River Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment, River Restoration Planning, and
Adaptation Plan
 An applied case study to integrate climate change into design and permitting of water crossing
structures.
 Implementing climate-smart resource management across multiple ownerships in southwestern
Oregon
 Cross-boundary Planning for Resilience and Restoration of Endangered Oak Savannah and Coastal
Douglas-fir Forest Ecosystems
 Continuing Support: Cascadia Partner Forum
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LCC Network Update
Strategic Planning for the LCC Network: Efforts to craft a strategic plan for the LCC Network are currently
underway. During the week of July 27th, over 50 representatives from across the Network met to develop
draft goals, objectives, and example tactics for a draft strategic plan. An internal review process will begin
shortly where individuals in the Network will provide input on the draft strategic plan, which is slated to be
finalized early this fall.
LCC Network Science Plan: During the strategic planning workshop, a group of LCC Science Coordinators
jointly convened to finalize the details of a draft Science Plan for the LCC Network. The Science
Plan's primary purpose is to help achieve the LCC Network vision and mission by articulating and addressing
priority science and technical needs that transcend LCC boundaries, while also adding value to individual LCC
efforts. A draft version of the Science Plan will go out for internal review within the coming weeks.
Want to review and comment? Contact your LCC Coordinator or LCC Science Coordinator at
http://lccnetwork.org/Find
You can also join a webinar on Wednesday, August 20 at 11:00am (Pacific Time) on the draft strategic plan
using the following call-in information and web sharing link: (866) 745-0259, passcode: 9747259
https://meet39041854.adobeconnect.com/documents (Please try to log in and call 5 to 10 minutes prior to
the webinar's start time.)
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Climate Change Education
Regional guides developed for teaching now available: Educational resources for each region of the
country, tied to the National Climate Assessment's key findings have been assembled and are now posted
on NOAA's teaching climate webpages. (Scroll down to use the clickable map to get to the resources that
have been gathered into an online educators "guide" for your region.) Each region's educators "guide"
includes a short synopsis of the findings of the Assessment, and a listing of educational resources for the key
messages for that region. Resources include background info, lesson plans, videos, etc. This will provide one
good place to start if you are looking for info specific to your region. The guides have been vetted by
scientists and educators.
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Columbia River Basin Impacts Assessment
The Columbia River Basin Impacts Assessment (Assessment) is an activity of the West Wide Climate Risk
Assessments (WWCRA), which is part of the Bureau of Reclamation’s (Reclamation) WaterSMART Basin
Study Program (WaterSMART Program). A primary focus of the Assessment is to generate future climate
change flow at more than 300 locations across the Columbia River Basin (Basin) and apply those flows at
specific locations within the Basin. Some of the specific tasks to be completed in this Assessment include
generation of future climate change flows throughout the Columbia River Basin, apply future climate change
flows in multiple water resource models, and providing resources for our internal and external partners to
download data developed as part of this Assessment. A webinar series will be held in the Fall of 2014
providing opportunities to learn about this Assessment and climate change science activities in the Pacific
Northwest. The initial webinar introducing the WaterSMART Program and providing an overview of the
Assessment process is scheduled for September 4, 2014. Following webinars will focus on specific topics.
Visit www.usbr.gov/pn/climate/crbia/ for more information. If you or someone you know is interested in
receiving updates, send your contact information (name, address, agency, phone, e-mail address) to
Rochelle Ochoa at rochoa@usbr.gov
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Biodiversity/Species and Ecosystem Response-- Journal Articles & Other Publications
Estimating Climate Resilience for Conservation across Geophysical Settings: Conservationists need
methods to conserve biological diversity while allowing species and communities to rearrange in response to
a changing climate. We developed and tested such a method for northeastern North America that we based
on physical features associated with ecological diversity and site resilience to climate change. We
comprehensively mapped 30 distinct geophysical settings based on geology and elevation. Within each
geophysical setting, we identified sites that were both connected by natural cover and that had relatively
more microclimates indicated by diverse topography and elevation gradients. We did this by scoring every
405 ha hexagon in the region for these two characteristics and selecting those that scored >SD 0.5 above the
mean combined score for each setting. We hypothesized that these high-scoring sites had the greatest
resilience to climate change, and we compared them with sites selected by The Nature Conservancy for their
high-quality rare species populations and natural community occurrences. High-scoring sites captured
significantly more of the biodiversity sites than expected by chance (p < 0.0001): 75% of the 414 target
species, 49% of the 4592 target species locations, and 53% of the 2170 target community locations.
Calcareous bedrock, coarse sand, and fine silt settings scored markedly lower for estimated resilience and
had low levels of permanent land protection (average 7%). Because our method identifies—for every
geophysical setting—sites that are the most likely to retain species and functions longer under a changing
climate, it reveals natural strongholds for future conservation that would also capture substantial existing
biodiversity and correct the bias in current secured lands. [ANDERSON, M. G., CLARK, M. and SHELDON, A. O.
(2014), Estimating Climate Resilience for Conservation across Geophysical Settings. Conservation Biology, 28:
959–970. doi: 10.1111/cobi.12272]
Is adaptation to climate change really constrained in niche specialists? Species with restricted distributions
make up the vast majority of biodiversity. Recent evidence suggests that Drosophila species with restricted
tropical distributions lack genetic variation in the key trait of desiccation resistance. It has therefore been
predicted that tropically restricted species will be limited in their evolutionary response to future climatic
changes and will face higher risks of extinction. However, these assessments have been made using extreme
levels of desiccation stress (less than 10% relative humidity (RH)) that extend well beyond the changes
projected for the wet tropics under climate change scenarios over the next 30 years. Here, we show that
significant evolutionary responses to less extreme (35% RH) but more ecologically realistic levels of climatic
change and desiccation stress are in fact possible in two species of rainforest restricted Drosophila.
Evolution may indeed be an important means by which sensitive rainforest-restricted species are able to
mitigate the effects of climate change. [Belinda van Heerwaarden and Carla M. Sgrò, Proc. R. Soc. B 7
September 2014 vol. 281 no. 1790 20140396, Published online 23 July 2014 doi: 10.1098/rspb.2014.0396]
Seasonal not annual rainfall determines grassland biomass response to carbon dioxide: Large annual
variation in the stimulation of above-ground biomass by elevated carbon dioxide in a mixed C3/C4 temperate
grassland can be predicted accurately using seasonal rainfall totals. [Hovenden, M., et al., Nature,
2014/07/31/print, Vol 511, Issue 7511, pp 583-586, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature13281]
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Arid Ecosystems
How will increases in rainfall intensity affect semiarid ecosystems? Model studies suggest that semiarid
ecosystems with patterned vegetation can respond in a nonlinear way to climate change. This means that
gradual changes can result in a rapid transition to a desertified state. Previous model studies focused on the
response of patterned semiarid ecosystems to changes in mean annual rainfall. The intensity of rain events,
however, is projected to change as well in the coming decades. In this paper, we study the effect of changes
in rainfall intensity on the functioning of patterned semiarid ecosystems with a spatially explicit model that
captures rainwater partitioning and runoff-runon processes with simple event-based process descriptions.
Analytical and numerical analyses of the model revealed that rainfall intensity is a key parameter in
explaining patterning of vegetation in semiarid ecosystems as low mean rainfall intensities do not allow for
vegetation patterning to occur. Surprisingly, we found that, for a constant annual rainfall rate, both an
increase and a decrease in mean rainfall intensity can trigger desertification. An increase negatively affects
productivity as a greater fraction of the rainwater is lost as runoff. This can result in a shift to a bare desert
state only if the mean rainfall intensity exceeds the infiltration capacity of bare soil. On the other hand, a
decrease in mean rainfall intensity leads to an increased fraction of rainwater infiltrating in bare soils,
remaining unavailable to plants. Our findings suggest that considering rainfall intensity as a variable may
help in assessing the proximity to regime shifts in patterned semiarid ecosystems and that monitoring losses
of resource through runoff and bare soil infiltration could be used to determine ecosystem resilience.
[Siteur, K., M. B. Eppinga, D. Karssenberg, M. Baudena, M. F. P. Bierkens, and M. Rietkerk (2014), How will
increases in rainfall intensity affect semiarid ecosystems?, Water Resour. Res., 50, 5980–6001,
doi:10.1002/2013WR014955]
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Coastal/Marine Ecosystems/Ocean Acidification
Ocean’s most oxygen-deprived zones to shrink under climate change: As the complex story of climate
change unfolds, many of the endings are grim. But there are exceptions. Predictions that the lowest-oxygen
environments in the ocean would get worse may not come to pass. Instead, University of Washington
research shows climate change, as it weakens the trade winds, could shrink the size of these extreme lowoxygen waters. “The tropics should actually get better oxygenated as the climate warms up,” said Curtis
Deutsch, a UW associate professor of oceanography. He is lead author of the study published Aug. 8 in
Science. UW news release link. Citation: Deutsch et al., Centennial changes in North Pacific anoxia linked to
tropical trade winds, Science 8 August 2014: Vol. 345 no. 6197 pp. 665-668, DOI: 10.1126/science.1252332
Long-term sea level trends: Natural or anthropogenic? Detection and attribution of human influence on sea
level rise are important topics that have not yet been explored in depth. We question whether the sea level
changes (SLC) over the past century were natural in origin. SLC exhibit power law long-term correlations. By
estimating Hurst exponent through Detrended Fluctuation Analysis and by applying statistics of Lennartz
and Bunde [2009], we search the lower bounds of statistically significant external sea level trends in longest
tidal records worldwide. We provide statistical evidences that the observed SLC, at global and regional
scales, is beyond its natural internal variability. The minimum anthropogenic sea level trend (MASLT)
contributes to the observed sea level rise more than 50% in New York, Baltimore, San Diego, Marseille, and
Mumbai. A MASLT is about 1 mm/yr in global sea level reconstructions that is more than half of the total
observed sea level trend during the XXth century. [Becker, M., M. Karpytchev, and S. Lennartz-Sassinek
(2014), Long-term sea level trends: Natural or anthropogenic?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41,
doi:10.1002/2014GL061027]
NOAA: ‘Nuisance flooding’ an increasing problem as coastal sea levels rise. Study looks at more than 60
years of coastal water level and local elevation data changes. Eight of the top 10 U.S. cities that have seen
an increase in so-called “nuisance flooding”--which causes such public inconveniences as frequent road
closures, overwhelmed storm drains and compromised infrastructure--are on the East Coast, according to a
new NOAA technical report. This nuisance flooding, caused by rising sea levels, has increased on all three
U.S. coasts, between 300 and 925 percent since the 1960s. The report, Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood
Frequency Changes around the United States, also finds Annapolis and Baltimore, Maryland, lead the list
with an increase in number of flood days of more than 920 percent since 1960. Port Isabel, Texas, along the
Gulf coast, showed an increase of 547 percent, and nuisance flood days in San Francisco, California
increased 364 percent.
EPA Climate Ready Estuaries Program Launches Redesigned Website: Resources are now easier to find and
webpages are now searchable. New features include interactive maps of Climate Ready Estuary projects,
king tides, and more. Update your bookmarks to the new address: http://www2.epa.gov/cre
USGS Coastal Change Hazard Portal: This tool gives you access to exploring coastal hazard risks information
along America's coasts at varied scales, from local areas of interest to national scope. It was developed with
“agile software,” so you can overlay other geographic information easily without the need for GIS programs.
Pick your favorite coastal location, type in the name, zoom in, and explore historic shorelines, rates of
shoreline change, sea-level rise, forecasts related to long-term change, the Coastal Vulnerability Index and
more. Video: Tutorial demonstration of how to use the USGS Coastal Change Hazards
Portal: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvlITDs9PII
West Coast Ocean Acidification and Hypoxia Science Panel: The West Coast Ocean Acidification and
Hypoxia Science Panel has a new website. Learn more about the scientists on the Panel, explore their vision,
and discover how they are advancing a bold new knowledge base in service of the region's future. The panel
was established in 2013 by the California Ocean Protection Council. The website will provide a venue to
disseminate and distribute products that are produced by the Panel as they work to summarize information
on key themes identified by decision makers.
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Aquatic Resources/Stream Flow/Hydrology in Western U.S.
Climate Change, Crowd-Sourcing, and Conserving Aquatic Biotas in the Rocky Mountains This Century: The
July/August issue of the USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station’s Science You Can Use publication is devoted
to this topic. Abstract: Climate change is causing rapid changes to stream habitats across the Rocky
Mountains and Pacific Northwest as warmer air temperatures and changes in precipitation increase stream
temperatures, alter stream hydrology, and increase the extent and magnitude of natural disturbances
related to droughts and wildfires. These changes are affecting trout, salmon, and other fish populations,
many of which are already subject to substantial non-climate stressors. Fish habitats at lower elevations—
near the downstream edges of species distributions—are particularly vulnerable. However, three Rocky
Mountain Research scientists are conducting research and developing applied management tools that
harness the power of crowd-sourcing to generate information and create opportunities for collaboration
and resource allocation decisions that may help to conserve some of the aquatic biotas currently at risk. This
is enabling adaptation to move forward at a scale and pace more appropriate to the challenges posed by
climate change. [July/August issue of the USFS’ Science You Can Use: http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/scienceapplication-integration/publications/]
Snowpack regimes of the Western United States: Snow accumulation and melt patterns play a significant
role in the water, energy, carbon, and nutrient cycles in the montane environments of the Western United
States. Recent studies have illustrated that changes in the snow/rainfall apportionments and snow
accumulation and melt patterns may occur as a consequence of changes in climate in the region. In order to
understand how these changes may affect the snow regimes of the region, the current characteristics of the
snow accumulation and melt patterns must be identified. Here researchers characterize the snow water
equivalent (SWE) curve formed by the daily SWE values at 766 snow pillow stations in the Western United
States, focusing on several metrics of the yearly SWE curves and the relationships between the different
metrics. The metrics are the initial snow accumulation and snow disappearance dates, the peak snow
accumulation and date of peak, the length of the snow accumulation season, the length of the snowmelt
season, and the snow accumulation and snowmelt slopes. Three snow regimes emerge from these results: a
maritime, an intermountain, and a continental regime. The maritime regime is characterized by higher
maximum snow accumulations reaching 300 cm and shorter accumulation periods of less than 220 days.
Conversely, the continental regime is characterized by lower maximum accumulations below 200 cm and
longer accumulation periods reaching over 260 days. The intermountain regime lies in between. The regions
that show the characteristics of the maritime regime include the Cascade Mountains, the Klamath
Mountains, and the Sierra Nevada Mountains. The intermountain regime includes the Eastern Cascades
slopes and foothills, the Blue Mountains, Northern and Central basins and ranges, the Columbia
Mountains/Northern Rockies, the Idaho Batholith, and the Canadian Rockies. Lastly, the continental regime
includes the Middle and Southern Rockies, and the Wasatch and Uinta Mountains. The implications of snow
regime classification are discussed in the context of possible changes in accumulation and melt patterns
associated with regional warming. Trujillo, E., and N. P. Molotch (2014), Snowpack regimes of the Western
United States, Water Resour. Res., 50, 5611–5623, doi:10.1002/2013WR014753
NorWeST adds Oregon Coast stream temperature climate scenarios & database to online availability:
Stream temperature climate scenarios for the Oregon Coast developed from data the local aquatics
community contributed are now available on the NorWeST website
(http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/NorWeST.html). The stream temperature database for this area is a
compilation from dozens of resource organizations & hundreds of individuals & consists of 9,128 summers
of monitoring effort at 3,472 unique stream sites. The NorWeST project is funded by the Great Northern and
North Pacific LCC’s and the project goals are to develop a comprehensive regional database archive and a
set of accurate, high-resolution stream climate scenarios for use in climate vulnerability assessments,
temperature monitoring, interagency coordination, & stream research. The NorWeST products consist of
three basic things (described below), all of which can be summarized, displayed, or queried in ArcGIS and
other databases for ease of use. A file showing the scenarios for Oregon Coast streams under historic
(1980s), 2040s, & 2080s conditions is attached to this email (flip through it to see an animated climate
sequence). If you want to view the new Oregon Coast scenarios dynamically & query individual sites using an
online GoogleMap tool, go here: http://www.sciencebase.gov/flexviewer/NorWeST/ (just zoom in until the streams
appear).
Stream temperature Variability: Why it matters to Salmon. The July issue of Science Findings (a USFS Pacific
Northwest Research Station publication) is devoted to salmon, stream temperature variance, and how
climate change and human activities can affect natural variability. A recent study indicates that the
commonly used degree-day accumulation model is not sufficient to predict how organisms respond to
stream temperature. Changes in how the degree days are delivered have the potential to alter the timing of
life history transitions in Chinook salmon and other organisms. http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/sciencef/scifi163.pdf
Seasonal snowpack characteristics influence soil temperature and water content at multiple scales in
interior western U.S. mountain ecosystems [Maurer, G. E., and D. R. Bowling (2014), Seasonal snowpack
characteristics influence soil temperature and water content at multiple scales in interior western U.S.
mountain ecosystems, Water Resour. Res., 50, doi:10.1002/2013WR014452.]
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Fire
Big Fires More Frequent Across Western Region: (From The Climate CIRCulator, a publication of The Pacific
Northwest Climate Impacts Research Consortium (CIRC) and The Oregon Climate Change Research Institute
(OCCRI).) Fires are among the most destructive climate-related natural hazards in the western United
States. A new analysis of satellite data shows that large fires have become more frequent over the past 30
years. Using high-resolution satellite data, Philip Dennison and colleagues tallied up the number of fires
larger than 1,000 acres— almost 7,000 fires in all— and aggregated them over nine eco-regions. The
scientists then calculated linear trends from 1984 to 2011.
Total burned area trended upward in all nine eco-regions, and the total area burned across the West
increased at an average rate of 355 square kilometers per year. The number of large fires trended upward in
seven of the nine, including all three of the Northwest eco-regions (the Cascade/Klamath/Sierra mountains,
the Snake Plain/Columbia Plateau, and the northern Rockies). However, in the Cascades eco-region, the very
largest fires (90th percentile) are decreasing at 3 square kilometers per year. Climatologists are hesitant to
identify a trend for a period as short as three decades. But earlier analysis by Jeremy Littell and colleagues
demonstrated that between 1916 and 2003— nearly a century — wildfire area burned in the western
United States increased and, importantly, climate was the primary driver, “despite the possible influence of
fire suppression, exclusion, and fuel treatment.” The relationships between climate and area burned,
however, are different in each eco-region, according to the researchers, owing, for example, to the relative
importance of early spring snowmelt or summer heat in drying the forests enough to burn.
[Dennison, P. E., Brewer, S.C, Arnold, J.D., & Moritz, M.A. (2014) Large wildfire trends in the western United
States, 1984–2011, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2928–2933, doi:10.1002/2014GL059576 and Littell, J.S.,
McKenzie, D., Peterson, D.L. & Westerling, A.L. (2009) Climate and wildfire area burned in western U.S.
ecoprovinces, 1916–2003. Ecological Applications, 19, 1003–1021. doi: 10.1890/07-1183.1]
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Climate Change Journal Articles/Publications/News
Hotter Days, Heavier Rains Projected for United States (From The Climate CIRCulator, a publication of The
Pacific Northwest Climate Impacts Research Consortium (CIRC) and The Oregon Climate Change Research
Institute (OCCRI).) Many types of extreme events will increase in size and frequency in the future. That is
the conclusion of climate experts who recently compared climate models to observed data. The scientists
evaluated global climate models’ simulations of extreme events in the United States. They also examined
the models’ future projections of the frequency and magnitude of extremes, from hot days to heavy rainfall.
The questions were posed during a workshop at the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5
(CMIP5). The workshop’s findings — published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society —
echo earlier studies. Conclusions include:
Hotter Temperatures: More high-temperature extremes and fewer low-temperature extremes are on
the horizon. In other words, the highs are getting higher and the lows are also higher. By 2100, under
the high-emission scenario, the 20-year annual maximum temperature (so-called because it would occur
once in 20 years, on average) likely will increase between 5 and 7 degrees Celsius in the Pacific
Northwest. The 20-year annual minimum temperature could rise by 10 degrees inland and 5 to 7
degrees on the coast.
Historical simulations of extreme temperatures are largely consistent with recorded observations. The
exception occurred in the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the researchers note. Record highs occurred slightly
less often and record lows occurred slightly more often in the simulations than in the observations.
(Compared to observations, simulated warm extremes were less than 2 degrees Celsius warmer, while
cold extremes were a little more than 2 degrees colder in the western United States.)
Heavier Precipitation: Heavy precipitation events are on the rise across the United States, and that
trend is projected to continue. But the climate models vary substantially, both in how much heavy
precipitation already has increased and in how much it will increase going forward.
Depending on the emissions scenario, models project a 50 percent to 90 percent increase in the annual
fraction of precipitation falling in the wettest rainstorms across the country by 2100. In the Northwest,
the 20-year annual maximum precipitation is projected to happen three to four times more frequently
by 2100. All models project an increase in the extreme precipitation index, a regionally averaged
measure of extreme precipitation that has increased more in the real world than models simulate during
the last four decades. In general, there are large differences between climate models in simulating
historical heavy rainfall, but that large spread across models is smaller for future projections.
The workshop’s findings were the fourth and last in a series assessing the state of the science and its ability
to detect changes in various types of extremes (see The Climate CIRCulator, May 2014). [Vose, R.S., &
Coauthors. (2014) Improved Historical Temperature and Precipitation Time Series for U.S. Climate Divisions.
J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 53, 1232–1251. doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0248.1]
Attribution of global glacier mass loss to anthropogenic and natural causes: The ongoing global glacier
retreat is affecting human societies by causing sea-level rise, changing seasonal water availability, and
increasing geohazards. Melting glaciers are an icon of anthropogenic climate change. However, glacier
response times are typically decades or longer, which implies that the present-day glacier retreat is a mixed
response to past and current natural climate variability and current anthropogenic forcing. Here, we show
that only 25 ± 35% of the global glacier mass loss during the period from 1851 to 2010 is attributable to
anthropogenic causes. Nevertheless, the anthropogenic signal is detectable with high confidence in glacier
mass balance observations during 1991 to 2010, and the anthropogenic fraction of global glacier mass loss
during that period has increased to 69 ± 24%. [Ben Marzeion, J. Graham Cogley, Kristin Richter, and David
Parkes, Science 1254702Published online 14 August 2014 [DOI:10.1126/science.1254702]
Ancient shellfish remains rewrite 10,000-year history of El Niño cycles: The planet’s largest and most
powerful driver of climate changes from one year to the next, the El Niño Southern Oscillation in the tropical
Pacific Ocean, was widely thought to have been weaker in ancient times because of a different configuration
of the Earth’s orbit. But scientists analyzing 25-foot piles of ancient shells have found that the El Niños
10,000 years ago were as strong and frequent as the ones we experience today. The results, from the
University of Washington and University of Montpellier, question how well computer models can reproduce
historical El Niño cycles, or predict how they could change under future climates. UW news release link. The
paper is now online and will appear in an upcoming issue of Science: Carré et al., Holocene history of ENSO
variance and asymmetry in the eastern tropical Pacific, Published Online August 7 2014, Science DOI:
10.1126/science.1252220
Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming: An
unprecedented strengthening of Pacific trade winds since the late 1990s has caused widespread climate
perturbations, including rapid sea-level rise in the western tropical Pacific, strengthening of Indo-Pacific
ocean currents, and an increased uptake of heat in the equatorial Pacific thermocline. The corresponding
intensification of the atmospheric Walker circulation is also associated with sea surface cooling in the
eastern Pacific, which has been identified as one of the contributors to the current pause in global surface
warming. In spite of recent progress in determining the climatic impacts of the Pacific trade wind
acceleration, the cause of this pronounced trend in atmospheric circulation remains unknown. Here
researchers analyse a series of climate model experiments along with observational data to show that the
recent warming trend in Atlantic sea surface temperature and the corresponding trans-basin displacements
of the main atmospheric pressure centres were key drivers of the observed Walker circulation
intensification, eastern Pacific cooling, North American rainfall trends and western Pacific sea-level rise. The
study suggests that global surface warming has been partly offset by the Pacific climate response to
enhanced Atlantic warming since the early 1990s. [McGregor et al., Recent Walker circulation strengthening
and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming, Nature Clim. Change, 2014/08/03 advance online
publication, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2330]
Threat to future global food security from climate change and ozone air pollution: This study shows that
warming reduces global crop production by >10% by 2050 with a potential to substantially worsen global
malnutrition in all scenarios considered. Ozone trends either exacerbate or offset a substantial fraction of
climate impacts depending on the scenario, suggesting the importance of air quality management in
agricultural planning. Furthermore, we find that depending on region some crops are primarily sensitive to
either ozone (for example, wheat) or heat (for example, maize) alone, providing a measure of relative
benefits of climate adaptation versus ozone regulation for food security in different regions. [Tai et al.,
Threat to future global food security from climate change and ozone air pollution, Nature Clim. Change,
2014/07/27 advance online publication, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2317]
The rise in atmospheric water vapor—a significant greenhouse gas—over the past 30 years can be tied to
human activities: The fact that water vapor is the most dominant greenhouse gas underscores the need for
an accurate understanding of the changes in its distribution over space and time. Although satellite
observations have revealed a moistening trend in the upper troposphere, it has been unclear whether the
observed moistening is a facet of natural variability or a direct result of human activities. Here, researchers
used a set of coordinated model experiments to confirm that the satellite-observed increase in uppertropospheric water vapor over the last three decades is primarily attributable to human activities. This
attribution has significant implications for climate sciences because it corroborates the presence of the
largest positive feedback in the climate system. [Chung et al., published online before print July 28, 2014,
PNAS, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1409659111]
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Tribal and Indigenous Peoples Matters
Indigenous Experiences in the U.S. with Climate Change and Environmental Stewardship in the
Anthropocene: The recognition of climate change issues facing tribal communities and indigenous peoples
in the United States is growing, and understanding its impacts is rooted in indigenous ethical perspectives
and systems of ecological knowledge. This foundation presents a context and guide for contemporary
indigenous approaches to address climate change impacts that are comprehensive and holistic. Tribal
communities and indigenous peoples across the United States are re-envisioning the role of science in the
Anthropocene; working to strengthen government-to-government relationships in climate change
initiatives; and leading climate change research, mitigation and adaptation plans through indigenous
ingenuity. Unique adaptive capacities of tribal communities stem from their ethics and knowledge, and help
frame and guide successful adaptation. As documented in the Special Issue of the Climatic Change Journal
on the impacts of climate change to U.S. indigenous communities (Maldonado and others 2013), these
issues include the loss of traditional knowledge; impacts to forests, ecosystems, traditional foods, and
water; thawing of Arctic sea ice and permafrost; and relocation of communities. This collaboration, by more
than 50 authors from tribal communities, academia, government agencies, and NGOs, demonstrates the
increasing awareness, interest, and need to understand the unique ways in which climate change will affect
tribal cultures, lands, and traditional ways of life. Climate change is expected to affect animal and
plant species that indigenous people depend on for their livelihoods, health and cultural practices. The
impacts of climate change on forests and other ecosystems that are home to many of these species require
tribal engagement in climate change research, assessments, and adaptation efforts. This paper
synthesizes key issues and case studies related to climate change impacts on tribally valued forest resources
and tribal adaptive responses to climate change. [Chief, K. Daigle, J; Lynn, K; Whyte K. 2014. Indigenous
Experiences in the U.S. with Climate Change and Environmental Stewardship in the Anthropocene. In:
Sample, V. Alaric; Bixler, R. Patrick, eds. 2014. Forest conservation and management in the Anthropocene:
Conference proceedings. RMRS-P-71. Fort Collins, CO: US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. Rocky
Mountain Research Station. 494 p.]
Indigenous community health and climate change: integrating biophysical and social science indicators:
This article describes a pilot study evaluating the sensitivity of Indigenous community health to climate
change impacts on Salish Sea shorelines (Washington State, United States and British Columbia, Canada).
Current climate change assessments omit key community health concerns, which are vital to successful
adaptation plans, particularly for Indigenous communities. Descriptive scaling techniques, employed in
facilitated workshops with two Indigenous communities, tested the efficacy of ranking six key indicators of
community health in relation to projected impacts to shellfish habitat and shoreline archaeological sites
stemming from changes in the biophysical environment. Findings demonstrate that: when shellfish habitat
and archaeological resources are impacted, so is Indigenous community health; not all community health
indicators are equally impacted; and, the community health indicators of highest concern are not necessarily
the same indicators most likely to be impacted. Based on the findings and feedback from community
participants, exploratory trials were successful; Indigenous-specific health indicators may be useful to
Indigenous communities who are assessing climate change sensitivities and creating adaptation plans.
[Donatuto, J. E.E. Grossman, J. Konovsky, S. Grossman, and L.W. Campbell. 2014. Indigenous community
health and climate change: integrating biophysical and social science indicators. Coast Manage. 42(4): 355373. DOI: 10.1080/08920753.2014.923140]
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Taking Action
Maintaining Resilience in the Face of Climate Change: The authors of this paper suggest that government
institutions currently lack the capacity to manage substantial changes to ecological, legal, and resource
management systems that are projected to occur with climate change. The authors also put forth the idea
that a federal, publicly accessible, and system-wide portal containing information on the effects of climate
change on ecological systems could help organizations become more resilient and better able to adapt.
[Camacho, Alejandro E. and Beard, T. Douglas, Maintaining Resilience in the Face of Climate Change (July 9,
2014). Social-Ecological Resilience and Law, edited by Ahjond S. Garmestani and Craig R. Allen. Copyright
©2014 Columbia University Press. Reprinted with Permission of the Publisher.; UC Irvine School of Law
Research Paper No. 2014-35. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2464235]
Science integration into US climate and ocean policy: The pace of environmental change lends urgency to
the need for integration of climate considerations into ocean policy and management. A recent rapid
expansion of ocean and climate policies provides a timely window of opportunity for the scientific
community to inform and support these efforts. Lessons can be learned from successful initiatives, where
scientists are working hand-in-hand with decision makers and managers to enhance ocean resilience.
Looking ahead, the most pressing decision-needs associated with oceans and climate change should serve to
prioritize and drive scientific efforts. [Petes et al., Science integration into US climate and ocean policy,
Nature Clim. Change,2014/08/Vol 4, Issue 8 671-677, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2312]
Opportunities to Reduce Federal Fiscal Exposures Through Greater Resilience to Climate Change and
Extreme Weather: The GAO found that climate change and related extreme weather impacts on
infrastructure and federal lands increase fiscal exposures that the federal budget does not fully reflect.
Investing in resilience—actions to reduce potential future losses rather than waiting for an event to occur
and paying for recovery afterward—can reduce the potential impacts of climate-related events.
Implementing resilience measures creates additional up-front costs but could also confer benefits, such as a
reduction in future damages from climate-related events. [GAO-14-504T: Published: Jul 29, 2014. Publicly
Released: Jul 29, 2014]
How does your diet stack up? A new study finds the average greenhouse gas emissions GHG emissions (in
kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalents per day) of meat-eaters, fish-eaters, vegetarians and vegans were:
7.19 for high meat-eaters, 5.63 for medium meat-eaters, 4.67 for low meat-eaters, 3.91 for fish-eaters, 3.81
for vegetarians and 2.89 for vegans.
Connect with the American Society of Adaptation Professionals: The American Society of Adaptation
Professionals (ASAP) connects leading professionals from a variety of sectors working to increase climate
resilience across the United States. Initially created in 2011, and formally launched in 2013, ASAP provides a
platform and forum for climate adaptation leaders to interact, participate in cutting edge research, develop
guidance for adaptation, and collaborate with their colleagues across the country. The society builds off the
strengths of its members and focuses on connecting adaptation professionals across the United States.
Membership is free for 2014. To learn more, visit: http://adaptationprofessionals.org/
________________________________________________________
Climate and Weather Reports and Services
State of the Climate: Hottest June on Record— NOAA reports that the combined average temperature
across global land and ocean surfaces for June 2014 was record high for the month, at 0.72°C (1.30°F) above
the 20th century average. This surpasses the previous record, set in June 1998, by 0.03°C (0.05°F). Read
more at: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/6
The Office of the Washington State Climatologist issues a monthly newsletter that summarizes the WA
climate for the previous month, includes a precipitation and temperature outlook, and also includes a brief
summary of an interesting aspect of the weather or climate of WA, among a few other sections: See
www.climate.washington.edu/newsletter for copies and to join the listserv.
PNW Climate Outlook: This quarterly report from the Pacific Northwest Climate Impacts Research
Consortium (CIRC) provides a seasonal wrap up of relevant regional issues along with an outlook for the
coming season in Idaho, Oregon, Washington and Western Montana. To subscribe send an email to John
Stevenson.
Great Basin Weather and Climate Dashboard: this website provides up to date climate and weather data
and forecasts/outlooks for the Great Basin including temperature, precipitation, drought, snowpack and
hydrologic information. (Some of the information includes the entire western U.S.) The Dashboard is a joint
effort amongst the Western Regional Climate Center, California and Nevada Applications Program, the USDA
Farm Service Agency and the Great Basin LCC.
NOAA Climate Connection E-Newsletter: Free monthly e-newsletter designed to increase climate literacy
and communication capacity for NOAA and its partners. Subscription requests can be sent to
NOAAClimateConnection@noaa.gov. Click here to view the June 2013 NOAA Climate Connection enewsletter.
NOAA’s State of the Climate Monthly Update
NOAA Monthly Drought Outlook: The monthly drought outlook complements the weekly drought condition
updates via the U.S. Drought Monitor. See this site.
NOAA Climate Portal: http://www.climate.gov/ National Snow and Ice Data Center: http://nsidc.org
NOAA 2013 Global Climate Report: The average global temperature for 2013 tied as the fourth warmest
year since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA scientists. It also marked the 37th consecutive
year with a global temperature above the 20th century average. The last below-average annual temperature
was 1976. Including 2013, all 13 years of the 21st century (2001-2013) rank among the 15 warmest in the
134-year period of record. The three warmest years on record are 1998, 2005, and 2010. This analysis is
from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina. To access the summary and full
report, visit: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/ncdc-releases-2013-global-climate-report.
_________________________________________________________
List Servers
BioClimate] News & Events from NCCWSC & the CSCs: https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/bioclimate-newsletter
ClimateNews-- is a snapshot from British Columbia’s Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource
Operations, provides new and emerging climate change adaptation and mitigation activities in the natural
resource sector. Contact: katharine.mccallion@gov.bc.ca
Climate CIRCulator (Oregon Climate Change Research Institute)
Climate Impacts Group (Univ. Washington)
Earth to Sky Newsletter (NASA/DOI Partnership): anita.l.davis@nasa.gov
EPA Climate Change and Water E-Newsletter
FRESC monthly e-newsletter-- Contact fresc_outreach@usgs.gov to join
FWS CC Monthly E-Newsletter: send note to kate_freund@fws.gov
LCC list servers (see your LCC’s website) and the national LCC Network newsletter
Ocean Acidification Report
OneNOAA Science Webinars
NASA's Climate Change Newsletter climate-feedback@jpl.nasa.gov
North Pacific LCC Listserve – North Pacific Tidings - important news and announcements; and NPLCC Climate
Science Digest - new science/information affecting natural and cultural resources.
NCTC Climate Change List server (upcoming webinars and courses): send email christy_coghlan@fws.gov
Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions (PICS) (British Columbia) Climate News Scan- a weekly summary of the
major climate-change related science, technology, and policy advances of direct relevance to the BC provincial
and the Canadian federal governments and more generally to businesses and civil society
PointBlue Weekly Ecology, Climate Change and Related e-Newsletter: Send request to ecohen@prbo.org
PNW Tribal Climate Change Network: Send request to kathy@uoregon.edu
US Forest Service Fish & Wildlife Research Updates
USGS Climate Matters: http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/newsletter/default.asp
White House Energy and Environment Updates: http://www.whitehouse.gov/energy/climate-change
FWS Resources and Tools
FWS Pacific Region employees can access journal articles and publications archived at the Region’s Climate
Change Sharepoint site (links below). The Region's Climate Change Science Synthesis document uses these
new findings. (The blog is used to highlight changes made to the document.)
> Home Page
> Read this report in Word/Find previous reports
> Document library (journal articles, reports, etc., updated weekly)
> Best available climate change science-- R1 synthesis (updated weekly)
> Blog (provides updates on new journal articles, R1 examples on use of climate science in decision making,
etc.)
> Use of Climate science: Regional examples
FWS Climate Change Response: How do partnership efforts such as Landscape Conservation Cooperatives
and the National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy fit into the Service's overall response
to accelerating climate change? How is our agency reducing its carbon footprint? What is our agency doing
now to reduce the impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife and plants? Learn more
Landscape Conservation Cooperatives: Natural systems and landscapes are impacted by increasing land use
pressures and widespread resource threats amplified by a rapidly changing climate. These changes are
occurring at an unprecedented pace and scale. By leveraging resources and strategically targeting science to
inform conservation decisions and actions, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) are a network of
partnerships working in unison to ensure the sustainability of America’s land, water, wildlife, and cultural
resources. Learn more
National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy: The National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants
Climate Adaptation Strategy will provide a unified approach—reflecting shared principles and science-based
practices—for reducing the negative impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife, plants, habitats and
associated ecological processes across geographic scales. Learn more
FWS Climate Change Information Toolkit: A key part of the Service's climate change strategy is to inform
FWS staff about the impacts of accelerating climate change and to engage partners and others in seeking
collaborative solutions. Through shared knowledge and communication, we can work together to reduce the
impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife, plants and their habitats. Here are some resources that can
help.
Climate Change, Wildlife, and Wildlands Toolkit: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, in partnership
with the National Park Service and with input from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, developed a kit for use
when talking with the public about how climate change is affecting our nation's wildlife and public lands.
Learn more .
Safeguarding Wildlife from Climate Change Web Conference Series: The FWS and National Wildlife
Federation have developed a series of web conferences to increase communication and transfer of technical
information between conservation professionals regarding the growing challenges of climate change. Learn
more
(FWS employees only)
NCTC Climate Change Resource Library: The NCTC Climate Change Resource Library provides selected
citations to peer-reviewed journal articles, documents, books, theses, presentations, and Websites on the
effect of climate change on North American fish, wildlife and habitats. FWS employees can access the library
here
For more information on how the Service is working with others to conserve the nature of America in a
changing climate, visit http://www.fws.gov/home/climatechange/
If you have received this Digest from a colleague and want to be added to the mailing list, send an email
to me at: david_patte@fws.gov