Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development EFFICIENCY, PRODUCTIVITY AND INNOVATION: EVALUATING THE FOUNDATIONS OF KNOWLEDGE-BASED ISLAMIC ECONOMICS FOR SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN OIC COUNTRIES Paper proposed for the 9th International Conference on Islamic Economics and Finance (ICIEF) on 9-11 September 2013, in Istanbul, Turkey. Organized by the Statistical, Economic & Social Research and Training Centre for Islamic Countries (SESRIC), the International Association for Islamic Economics (IAIE), and Qatar Faculty of Islamic Studies (QFIS). Mehmet Asutay1, Ercument Aksak2* 1 2 Durham Islamic Finance Programme, Durham University, UK Durham Islamic Finance Programme, Durham University, UK * Corresponding Author. e-mail: e.a.aksak@durham.ac.uk Tel: + (44) 780 9709930 ABSTRACT With the help of favourable macroeconomic conditions during the last two decades, the Muslim societies have intensified their efforts to transform themselves to knowledge based economies, while at the same time also successfully become financial hubs. These efforts aim to create thriving economies based on innovative management of knowledge based assets. Efficient educational institutions and intellectual property industries are of particular importance to this new economic philosophy and infrastructure. However, the main issues of this process, such as; research and development, innovation, intellectual property and copyright have not yet been discussed in the current state of Islamic economics. Today, Islamic economics has no prospects for the issues mentioned above, which are crucial for economic development and sustaining such development. As a result, this study aims to address this extremely important weakness and be the first to open the discussion from an Islamic economics perspective. In the initial stage, the paper will provide a review of the existing literature on the knowledge creation, R&D, innovation and economic efficiency in the conventional economics theory and maps the strengths, weaknesses and potential outcomes of the alternative models suggested. In the second stage, these models will be empirically examined by implementing them to the economies of the Muslim geography. In order to achieve the desired results, first the Total Factor Productivity values of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) members will be produced. Second these results will be further scrutinized by contrasting them to the results derived from the Knowledge Assessment Methodology (KAM) developed by the World Bank Institute. Finally the results will identify the opportunities and the possible problems the Muslim countries face, and where they may need to focus their policy attention and future investments to achieve a successful KBE. The study will conclude to show how Islamic economic theory making can endogenise knowledge creation and its economy as an integral part of its political economy framework for sustainable development. Considering that Muslim societies enjoyed substantial development in the past when they were at the pick of generating knowledge, it is essential, hence, that knowledge economy in the post-industrial economy must be internalised for future achievements. Keywords: Islamic economics, economic growth, development, economic efficiency, productivity 1 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development 1. Introduction The emergence and significant growth of Islamic finance in the last two decades has started a new strand of theoretical and empirical research. Innovations in financial markets and instruments, as well as regulations and financing channels have affected not only the financial system, but also numerous industries of the real economies. Today, followed by its double digit annual growth through the last twenty years, Islamic finance is one of the major components in the global financial system. However, this glamorous growth has been limited to the innovations and development in financial markets and instruments, rather than improving the broader economic thought and thus come with a price. As the recent developments indicate, today Islamic finance does not share the theoretical backing of a broader Islamic economics theory and, therefore, it is on the path of being the second-best alternative in comparison to the teachings and the moral code of Islam. As a result of this lacking of a broader Islamic economic thought, most of the criticisms on Islamic finance are based on the lack of novelty and that Islamic finance is becoming an adaptation of the conventional finance within Islamic principles. Breaking out of this cycle and taking the initiative rather than remaining as a follower, on the other hand, is also in the hands of the Islamic finance and economics scholars. In order to achieve this, research on Islamic economics should evolve in a direction, where it can itself contribute to the current academic discourse and present solutions to the unsolved problems of economics theory; rather than waiting for western academia to provide the solutions and then adapting these suggestions through the fiqh-centred principles of Islamic finance. 2 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development Following the argument above, it should be remembered that the original aspirations of the founding fathers of Islamic economic thought were; but not exclusively limited to, entrepreneurship, innovation, trade and economic livelihood, all of which are to provide and stimulate social and economic growth, development, social justice and prosperity within the religious, ethical and moral codes of the teachings of Islam. In the current competitive economic and business climate, it is almost impossible to achieve these targets set by the founding fathers of Islamic economics without a novel competitive advantage. This kind of competitive advantage, in most of the recent examples, comes from either innovations based on creation of new knowledge or other factors, which are mostly in contradiction to the ethical and moral teachings of Islam. As a result, in this study we have focused our attention to one of the topics which has been hotly debated in the economics theory, especially following the current advancements in information technologies; innovation and the creation of knowledge based economies. The knowledge based economy is the one that emphasizes and makes full use of the role of knowledge in social and economic growth. This target is achieved through development in two main areas: technology and human capital. In a knowledge-based economy (KBE), the development, production, growth and dissemination of information and technology and development of human capital is essential. Thus, special emphasis is given to the efforts on creating an economic climate encouraging research and development, protecting intellectual property and improving education. With the help of favourable macroeconomic conditions during the last two decades, the Muslim societies have intensified their efforts to transform themselves to knowledge based economies, while at the same time also successfully become financial hubs. These efforts aim to create thriving economies based on innovative 3 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development management of knowledge based assets. Efficient educational institutions and intellectual property industries are of particular importance to this new economic philosophy and infrastructure. However, the main issues of this process, such as; research and development, innovation, intellectual property and copyright have not yet been discussed in the current state of Islamic economics. Today, Islamic economics has no prospects for the issues mentioned above, which are crucial for economic development and sustaining such development. As a result, this study aims to address this extremely important weakness and be the first to open the discussion from an Islamic economics perspective. In order to achieve this result, the paper will be presented as follows: In Section 2, a critical review of the existing literature is going to be provided. In Section 3, the dominant methodologies employed in examining the relation between development of KBE and broader macroeconomic performances will be presented. In Section 4, the sample and data will be presented. Finally in Section 5, the findings of our analysis will be presented. The paper will conclude with Section 6, summarising the results and discussing the possible further studies. 2. Review of literature The review will first start with presenting the original aspirations of the founding fathers of Islamic economics and how Islamic economic theory has developed since then, with emphasis on economic growth and development. However, as Islamic economics cannot be considered in isolation from the rest of the economic system, the focus will then move to the conventional economic development literature, with special emphasis on the mechanisms how financial development can have a part in a 4 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development sustainable economic development. Finally, the findings of these initial stages will be contrasted to the current developments in Islamic economics and finance. 2.1. Islamic economics: Aspirations, emergence and current developments Early writings in Islamic economics depicted a grand and, some would say, utopian type of social development that would result from implementing Islamic social and economic theory (Asutay, 2007a, Asutay, 2007b and Asutay & Zaman, 2009). In order to achieve a societal change of that magnitude, Islamic economic thought anticipates a number of foundational axioms based on the epistemological references in the Qur’an and Sunnah that can distinguish itself from the conventional economic systems. Although there are numerous studies on these axioms in the Islamic economics literature, most of them simply refers to the early works in the field. Today, there seems to be a consensus on these axioms amongst Islamic economics scholars. For example, Ahmad (1980), Siddiqi (1981), Naqvi (1981) and Chapra (1992, 2000); amongst others have listed such axioms as follows: Tawhid (unity); indicating the vertical dimension of the Islamic ethical system; Al-‘adl wa’l-ihsan (equilibrium); providing for the horizontal dimension of equity; Ikhtiyar (free-will); Fard (responsibility), implying that individuals and society need to conserve the public good; Rububiyyah; implying divine arrangements for nourishment, sustenance, improvement and directing things towards their perfection; 5 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development Tazkiyah; implying growth with purification, which should endogenise the good of the others and has to be conducted with ethical and moral considerations; Khilafah; indicating individual’s role as God’s vicegerent on earth; Tazkiyyah (growth with purification), implying efforts for a wealthier and more prosperous society which is achieved through the ethical and moral codes of Islam; Maqasid-al Shariah, as the last axiom, aiming to interpret the text in relation to the objectives of the Shari’ah and restore the principles of Islamic economics. This further is interpreted in a way that Islamic economic principles must lead to ‘human well-being’. This list is by no means exhaustive and other major principles can be added such as sabr (patience), ubudiyyah (servitude), shukr (thankfulness) and ijz (humility), as important foundational axioms of Islamic economics that have implications for socioeconomic and spiritual development. As can be seen, Islamic economics, in essence, provides foundational axioms and proposes an ethical and systemic understanding of economics and finance based upon the ontological and epistemological sources of Islam. In addition, from the interpretation of these axioms, we believe, Islamic economics depicts a socioeconomic system based on free-will, entrepreneurship, innovation, trade and economic livelihood, all of which are to provide and stimulate social and economic growth, development, social justice and prosperity within the religious, ethical and moral codes of the teachings of Islam. As a result, it shouldn’t be surprising that the modern variant of Islamic economics is a development that began in the 1970s with an alternative system understanding to the existing capitalist economic order. In this new discourse, Islamic economics held the 6 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development capitalist economic order responsible for the poverty, failure of economic development and environmental issues in developing countries. In other words, in the eyes of the modern Islamic economics, the aim was to suggest, develop and present an alternative socio-political system complimented by its’ own economics theorey basis and in turn cure the failures of the capitalist economic order (Asutay, 2007b). Following this initial spark, Islamic economists have devoted most of their energies to enumerating and elucidating these axioms in an attempt to distinguish the aims and justifications of Islamic economics as a valid alternative order (Asutay & Zaman, 2009). However, as Asutay (2007b) notes, in the means of Foucaltian philosophy, power is central to the definition of social and political meanings, actualisation and knowledge; Muslims not having such global power were deprived of establishing their political and, hence, economic order. This weakness, in turn, has consequences for Islamic finance and its idle development in the recent decades, which will be briefly discussed in the following section below. 2.2. A path to the second best? Emergence of Islamic finance The last three decades have witnessed a substantial growth in financial markets through means of information technology and telecommunications improvements, regulatory easing and global integration (Rajan, 2005). As a parallel development, and despite the weaknesses summarised above, Islamic finance industry has also achieved significant growth at the same period. Today, Islamic Banking and Finance (IBF) industry is accepted as an integral part of the global financial system and achieved a certain level of maturity (Asutay, 2011). This strong growth on four bases: First, is the strong demand from a large number of immigrant and minority Muslims for Shari’ahcompliant financial services and transactions. Second, is the growing windfall profit from natural resources demanding suitable investments out of the GCC region; and 7 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development third, is the improved competitiveness of Islamic banking and finance products (El Qorchi, 2005) and finally, fourth, is the increasing concern over the issues such as, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility and ethicality and morality of investment strategies (Asutay & Aksak, 2011). As a result of these reasons, Asutay (2011) argues Islamic banking and finance industry is reaching mainstream relevance in global economic and financial system by answering the financial requirements and religious concerns of Muslims; and it will inevitably widen the stakeholder base of society in economy. However, this relevant success has come with a price. As Asutay (2007a) notes, with the rapid development of Islamic finance, research focusing on the foundational base, namely Islamic economics, has been largely ignored. The main vein of the research has been devoted to the development of financial assets and instruments. However, as Islamic economic theory has not developed its operational axioms adequately (which would have provided the normative framework within which IBF could have functioned) (Asutay, 2007a), the IBF has implicitly adopted neo-classical assumptions of the capitalist economic order. The result being that IBF, rather than realizing the axiomatic aspirations of pioneering Islamic economists and helping to establish socioreligious norms in the form of a moral economy, has actually achieved little more than a re-marketing of the capitalist debt-peddling model as a pseudo-Islamic alternative. This failure of IBF has drawn the criticisms of many Islamic economists recently (Siddiqi, 2004; Hasan, 2005; El-Gamal, 2006; Asutay, 2007a and 2007b and Nagaoka, 2007). These criticisms can be summarised in two distinct groups. Firstly, the concept of interest-free banking and finance has been criticized on the grounds that it is economically not feasible, raising concerns over the issues of efficiency and costs. It is often highlighted that such an approach would lead to more costly products making them even less accessible to those in need. If one of the oft-quoted aims of 8 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development Shariah is to safeguard the wealth of the people, then IBF certainly fails here. Another economic challenge for IBF is the fact that very little of the large amounts of wealth associated with it have actually reached the Muslim societies in need of such resources the most. Secondly, a growing criticism against the process of re-engineering financial products to make them Shariah-compliant is focussed on the actual validity of the fiqh (jurisprudence) involved. Some sceptics, such as El-Gamal (2006), have expressed sound concerns about the governance issues and raised questions about potential conflict of interests for Shariah scholars who authenticate such contracts as employees of the industry themselves. In addition, another criticism has risen that such contracts are designed to circumvent Shariah laws and so violate broader principles or real maqasid (aim) associated with the prohibition of riba (Asutay & Zaman, 2009). The consensus of critics in this category is that fiqh is restrictive, outdated and unable to meet the challenges of the modern capitalist-dominated world economy; and therefore remains only as a technical approach to economic issues rather than taking into account policy dimensions which can provide the essential solution for the development problems of Muslim societies and communities. To summarise, in its’ current state, IBF is not an integral part of Islamic economics thought, and thus realising only a small portion of its’ potential affecting macroeconomic conditions, especially with regard to producing and preserving wealth, encouraging equity ownership and entrepreneurship, offering financing channels for the economic actors in need and stimulating economic growth and development, promoting social justice and prosperity within the religious, ethical and moral codes of the teachings of Islam. Today, Islamic finance, as the IBF industry, seems not to be the financing arm of Islamic economic thought which supports 9 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development operations within a broader economic setting, but an independent financialization and securitisation structure itself. As a result, the dire need for efforts investigating potential theoretical frameworks for economic settings in parallel to the aspirations of the founding fathers of Islamic economics, such as economic growth and development and promoting social justice and prosperity is undeniable. However, as Kahf (2003) among others, rightfully suggests that Islamic economics cannot be considered outside the main discipline of economics theory, the conventional economics theory tackling these issues should be best starting point for the first attempts to establish an alternative economic thought. In the next section, the original aspirations of economic growth and development and social justice will be discussed from the conventional economics point of view. 2.3.Growth and development in economics theory The quest for explaining the reasons and the mechanisms of continuous growth in general economies and in per capita income has been one of the oldest in economics theory tradition. Although these questions were much older, the transformation of world economic system into industrialisation and beyond has intensified the efforts for finding the answer for these historical phenomena. Scottish Enlightenment philosophers David Hume and Adam Smith1 were among the very first to suggest the accumulation of productive capacity, through the means of improving and increasing itself, in turn would lead into a wealthier economy. However, modern economic theory needed to wait for the seminal works of Solow (1956) and Swan (1956) to formulate this set of age old questions. Their notion of growth as increased stocks of capital goods showed the relationship between labour, capital, output, and investment. The main assumption of this model was that countries 1 An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations http://econlib.org/library/Smith/smWN.html 10 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development use their resources efficiently and that there are decreasing marginal returns to capital and labour. From these two premises, the neoclassical model makes three important predictions. First, since people can be more productive with increasing capital, increases in capital would provide higher growth than increases in labour. Second, as a result of the first prediction, poor countries with less capital per person will grow faster as a result of higher marginal returns of investment in capital in comparison to richer wealthier countries with higher capital per person. Third, because of these diminishing returns, economies will eventually reach to a point at which any increase in capital will no longer create economic growth, called steady state. However, Solow and Swan suggested that countries can still overcome the steady state plateau and continue growth by inventing new technology and create knowledge. Technology by improving the efficiency and effectiveness of the economy increases the steady state level and the country can still continue investing and grow. However this treatment of technology and knowledge as exogenous factors of growth also points out a possible weakness. In addition, various growth rates among the countries in the long run and the growing attention about the under growing countries have risen important questions about the model in 1970s and criticisms grew further. Finally the moral questions about linking the advancement into a mere number of economic output have also been risen more strongly and the term development has become more visible. Tackling the first problem, Romer (1986) and Lucas (1988) have developed the endogenous growth theory endogenizing technology into the neo-classical model. Their model also incorporated a new concept of human capital, the skills and knowledge that make workers productive. More importantly, human capital has increasing rates of return, providing constant returns to capital, and thus preventing 11 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development economies reaching to steady state. As a result, research investigating the optimal allocation of investment within different types of capital has flourished. Studies on this new strand have focused mainly on the reasons that increase human capital (i.e. education) or technological change (i.e. innovation). Responding to the second question, especially after the impressive performance of East Asian economies, economic growth studies have also investigated the variations in economic growth performances of different economies (Cakota, 1995). One possible explanation takes its roots from Solow-Swan model and was that the countries are in constant transition back to their long-run parallel growth paths (Kocherlakota & Yi, 1995). As a result, if one country performs below its steady state path, high rates of growth may occur; or alternatively, if performs above the long-run path, the performance is meant to slow down. A second explanation in the same lines comes from Ciccione & Matsuyama (1996), which views high growth as a technological “catch-up” and low growth as technological “falling-behind”. Another alternative explanation is that the countries are indeed performing to their long-run growth paths, but these growth paths are not parallel. Application of endogenous growth theories to individual countries in isolation can make differences and institutions across countries lead to differences in long-run growth rates (Klenow & Rodriguez-Clare, 1997). Finally, and in line with the emergence of the term human capital, measuring the achievement of the economy strictly with the growth of output has become more obsolete. As a result, the term “economic development”, incorporating economic performance with policymaking, community structures, infrastructure, economic competitiveness, health, education and environmental sustainability has become more 12 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development visible. Today, in the words of Nobel laureate Amartya Sen (1983) “economic growth is one aspect of the process of economic development”. 2.4. Innovation and KBE: A Viable Alternative? The review of the literature above shows significant fault lines in between the original aspirations of the founding fathers of modern Islamic economics and the current state of the flourishing Islamic banking and finance (IBF) industry. Despite its current success and impressive growth performances through the last three decades Islamic finance as a whole has failed to provide the mechanisms to fulfil the original aspirations of Islamic economics. However, it should be remembered that this detachment is mutual in the current state. While IBF has failed to answer to the aspirations of Islamic economic thought, failed to provide mechanisms beyond the adoption of conventional finance instruments and have become fiqh oriented and limited itself to the prohibition of riba; Islamic economic thought has also failed to develop its operational axioms adequately and provide the theoretical basis for IBF to grow into the direction of the original aspirations. Today, there is no modern links in Islamic economic thought that can link the current relevant success of IBF into the aspirations of free trade, entrepreneurship, innovation and economic livelihood, all of which are to provide and stimulate social and economic growth, development, social justice and prosperity within the religious, ethical and moral codes of the teachings of Islam. As a result, a new attempt to establish a economic development theory from Islamic perspective in line with the current developments in economics theory is essential. This theory should endogenize technology and human capital development in a way that can promote efficiency and effectiveness in economies as well as employing the current relevant success of IBF in itself. 13 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development Putting human development into its core is in no terms foreign to the Islamic economic thought. In exact opposite, the concept of development permeates through, and is entwined within, the fabric of Islamic ontological standpoint on the nature of human being (Asutay & Zaman, 2009). Supporting this view, El-Ghazali (1994) states “the whole concept of development needs to be reviewed in order to incorporate human being’s basic needs and not just the rates of growth of simplified development components”. It is actually note worthy that the emergence of modern Islamic economic thought coincides with developments in economics theory, where the shortcomings of neo-classical model excluding the human developments have become more apparent. On the other hand, it should be noted that Muslim economies have been aware of such a necessity for some time now. With the help of favourable macroeconomic conditions during the last two decades, the Muslim societies have intensified their efforts to transform themselves to competitive economies in the new globalized world economic system in order to achieve better development. However, while achieving better competitiveness position, the efforts were focused mainly on the macroeconomic stability, building infrastructure and establishing institutions, especially financial markets. As a result, if The Global Competitiveness Index Methodology2 of World Economic Forum (Table 1), where Muslim economies have shown relative success in the last decades, is used as a benchmark, it can be seen that the competitiveness mainly comes from the basic requirements including the areas counted above. However, the higher pillars, efficiency and innovation and sophistication indicators cannot repeat the impressive performance of the first pillar. 2 World Economic Forum and Global Competitiveness Report committee define competitiveness as the set of institutions, policies, and factors that determine the level of productivity of a country. The level of productivity, in turn, sets the sustainable level of prosperity that can be earned by an economy. This set of definitions is in parallel to the development view in Islamic economic thought, and thus is employed in the paper. 14 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development Table 1: Three main pillars of competitiveness Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Index, 2012-2013 (p: 8) The latest picture shows that, with the continuation of favourable global macroeconomic conditions, Muslim economies have also intensified their efforts for achieving success for the second pillar. Improvements in the market conditions and efficiencies, investments in high tech industries in order to gain know-how and establishment of adequately funded higher education institutions. However, as can be seen in Table 2, despite these continuing and intensifying efforts, Muslim economies are still gaining their competitiveness from the basic requirements, but fail to achieve success, with a few exceptions, in the second and third pillar. These numbers suggest that, although basic institutionalisation and development efforts have provided results, these are still not been used efficiently. Moreover, the Innovation & Sophistication factor results, strongly suggest that there is a long way to go for achieving success in that pillar. 15 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development Table 2: The Global Competitiveness Index of Muslim economies, 2012-13 Country Overall Basic Efficiency Innovation & Ranking Requirements Enhancers Sophistication Qatar 11 7 22 15 Saudi Arabia 18 13 26 29 U.A.E. 24 5 21 25 Malaysia 25 27 23 23 Brunei 28 21 68 62 Oman 32 15 45 44 Bahrain 35 25 35 53 Kuwait 37 32 75 86 Turkey 43 57 42 50 Azerbaijan 46 56 67 57 Indonesia 50 58 58 40 Jordan 64 66 70 52 Iran 66 59 90 77 Morocco 70 68 79 84 Egypt 107 110 101 96 Algeria 110 89 136 144 Bangladesh 118 119 107 122 Pakistan 124 134 98 75 Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Index, 2012-2013 (p: 14-15) 16 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development One can suggest, after a more detailed analysis of the Global Competitiveness Report and indices, that the most successful economies after decades of development efforts and in the current economic climate are the ones that have successfully managed to transform themselves into Knowledge-based economies. The knowledge based economy is the one that emphasizes and makes full use of the role of knowledge in social and economic growth. This target is achieved through development in two main areas: technology and human capital. In a knowledge-based economy (KBE), the development, production, growth and dissemination of information and technology and development of human capital is essential. Thus, the necessity of transforming into a knowledge-based economy, at the same time becoming financial and business hubs is apparent. The higher numbers of the GCC economies in Table 2 also point this argument. Thus, special emphasis should be given to the efforts on creating an economic climate encouraging research and development, protecting intellectual property and improving education. These efforts should aim to create thriving economies based on innovative management of knowledge based assets. Efficient educational institutions and intellectual property industries will be of particular importance to this new economic philosophy and infrastructure. As a result, this paper aims to assess the current development efforts of Muslim economies, and their successes and failures in achieving success for the complete competitiveness picture, discussed above, with special emphasis on Innovation and Sophistication factors. Mapping the successes and failures, then, the paper is going to address if there are any characteristic points help Muslim economies for achieving success or prevent them to develop further. By doing so, the aim extents itself into a critique of the neo-classical and euro-centric development models and suggesting a frame for achieving a Knowledge-based economics within the Islamic economic thought. 17 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development 3. Methodology In order to achieve the aims mentioned above, the paper will first investigate the neoclassical Slow-Swan model as the basic benchmark, where information, knowledge and innovations are completely exogenous. Second, the paper will contrast these results with the Knowledge Economics Indicators (KEI) using Knowledge Assessment Methodology (KAM) of the Worldbank, where the excluded knowledge and innovation based factors are treated endogenous, in order to assess the influence of these factors on the economic growth and development of Muslim economies. By doing so, the paper will be able to map out the characteristics strengths and weaknesses of Muslim economies from economic development perspective, with special emphasis on Knowledge-based factors. This mapping will in turn enable us to evaluate the euro-centric nature of conventional theories, and provide a successful critique of their shortcomings, especially in relation to Islamic economic thought. Finally, in the light of these criticisms and analysis, the paper will provide an alternative paradigm of development from the view of Islamic economic thought. In order to achieve these, two methodologies, which are both widely used in conventional economics theory, will be employed as starting benchmarks. The first methodology will be Solow-Swan model of neo-classical economics, where knowledge-based factors are treated exogenous. 3.1 Total Factor Productivity Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is the portion of output not explained by the amount of inputs used in production in a Solow-Swan economic growth model. As such, its level is determined by how efficiently and intensely the inputs are utilized in production (Comin, 2006). Capital and labour services measurements allow to assess 18 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development the contributions of capital and labour inputs to economic growth and to estimate the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) (Biatour, Bryon & Kegels, 2007). This model, pioneered by Solow (1956), starts with a neoclassical production function; Y = Af(K,L) (0.1) where Y is the GDP, A is the technology level, K is the capital input and L is the labour input. ∆Y =∆ Af(K,L) + G A K L (1 ) (0.2) A K L Then the growth rate, G becomes; G FK K K FL L L Y A (0.3) Y A f ( K , L) K f ( K , L) L Under the assumptions of competitive product and factor markets and constant returns to scale, the production factors are remunerated at their marginal productivity, which means; w AFL r AFK We can then rewrite the growth rate of the economy as; G A K L (1 ) (1.4) A K L where α is the share of capital in the GDP and (1-α) is the share of labour in the GDP. 19 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development The part of GDP growth that is not explained by the capital and labour rates of growth is assumed to be the TFP growth and is called the Solow residual. As discussed above, this residual allows measuring the amount of economic growth achieved by innovation, technology and knowledge creation. 3.2 Knowledge Assessment Methodology The second methodology employed in this research is The Knowledge Assessment Methodology (KAM) which is developed by the Worldbank’s Institute for Knowledge programme. KAM is a benchmark tool that enables to measure a country’s position in relation to the others from a knowledge-based economy perspective. In total KAM uses 80 structural and qualitative variables that serve as proxies for the four knowledge economy pillars for 128 countries and 9 regions. Since these 80 variables span over different ranges of values, they are all scaled from 0 (weakest) to 10 (strongest) and the 128 countries are ranked on an ordinal scale. This research will employ the variables which are also employed in the World Competitiveness Report methodology in order to keep its focus in consistency with the other benchmark studies. 4. Sample and data The sample which is going to be examined in this study will consist of the 57 members of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) from the period of 1980 to 2010, depending on the availability of high quality and consistent data. The data which is going to be used in the TFP analysis will be gathered from Thomson Reuters Datastream economics and finance database. In order to achieve consistency and quality data standardized by international organisations, such as Worldbank, United Nations Development Programme and the IMF will be given priority. 20 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development In the second stage of our analysis, the KEI of KAM methodology developed by the Worldbank will be used. The data is available to international research community and is a useful tool as a common benchmark. 5. Findings and analysis The findings and analysis section will start by the measurement of TFP values of the members of OIC and these values are going be contrasted to the KEI values of the Worldbank for the same sample of countries. Then finally at the third stage, the results will be further scrutinised by mapping of the common potential weaknesses and strengths of Muslim economies, and investigate the possible reasons underlying and supporting them. 5.1 Total Factor Productivity Our Total Factor Productivity results generated using the methodology discussed above, are summarised below in Table 3. The results in Table 3 are indeed provides us a very disappointing picture. First of all, the TFP values of the OIC member countries do not seem to be improving, but rather following a steady trend. As a result, they do not show any hope of catching up with the developed countries. Second, and even more discouragingly, the trends for the developed countries sampled in two distinct groups in our analysis, OECD member countries3 and EU-15 countries4 both show relatively positive trends. 3 Only countries with an existing membership in 1995 are included in the analysis. These countries, are; namely, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom and the U.S.A. 4 Namely, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and United Kingdom 21 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development Table 3: Total Factor Productivity comparisons 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 OIC AVERAGE 0.5 OECD AVERAGE 0.4 EU-15 AVERAGE 0.3 0.2 0.1 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 0 However, these positive trends are also in line with the developments in the information technologies in 1970s and 1990s. Both groups seem to have benefited from these technological innovations and made better use of them in comparison to OIC members and hence the TFP gap between them and the OIC countries are increasing, with a widening trend. Another interesting feature of Table 3, is the relatively steady trend for these two groups during the 1960s. This period also coincides with the time when the economic growth theories were stagnated and became temporarily insufficient, as discussed above in the literature review section. However, the following improving trend also suggests that developed countries of these two groups have benefited from the academic discussions which transferred the focus from economic growth to a rather comprehensive term of economic development. This suggestion obviously requires further discussion 22 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development 5.2 Knowledge Assessment Methodology Knowledge Assessment Methodolgoy (KAM) frame is developed by Worldbank in order to assess the current situation and the potential of the countries worldwide. Starting from 1995, Worldbank reports a set of indices within the KAM frame. The two main indicators of the KAM frame are Knowledge Index (KI) and Knowledge Economic Index (KEI). These two indices apart from the Economic and Institution Regime Index included in the KEI are consisting of the same variables. These other three mutual indices are; Education Index, Innovation Index and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Index. These three indices form the KI alone. Table 4: Knowledge Assessment Methodology (KAM) frame Source: Worldbank (2012) The analysis will be based on the comparisons between the three main distinct groups employed in this research; OIC, OECD and EU-15 member countries and is going to start with KEI, the most comprehensive among all. The results of the KEI index averages of these three international institutions suggest a disappointing picture, as seen in Table 5. The average values for EU-15 and OECD 23 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development are much higher in comparison to the average values of OIC member countries. Moreover, even there has been a slight improvement for the OIC sample, the value still below the average reported in 1995. In other words, there hasn’t been a significant improvement since 1995 for the OIC member countries. Our unreported detailed analysis of individual countries by each of the three criteria presented above in Table 4, however suggest a mixed picture. First of all, some of the OIC member countries have achieved much higher results from the general average, especially on Tariff and Nontariff Barriers criteria. With the increased number of World Trade Organisation (WTO) memberships among OIC member countries this should be expected. However, if the attention has moved to the other two criterion; Regulatory Quality and Rule of Law indicating the legal and regulatory strength of countries, the gap is still significant. In other words, the KEI suggest there is still a long way to go for OIC countries on their efforts on institutionalising their regulatory and governance systems. Table 5: Knowledge Economic Index averages 10 9 8 7 6 OIC AVERAGE 5 OECD AVERAGE 4 EU-15 AVERAGE 3 2 1 0 1995 2000 2012 If the analysis is moved into the more KBE focused KI, the results presented in Table 6 are indeed suggesting a very similar picture. However, it should also be noted that, 24 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development albeit slightly, the average values of KI is lower than of the average values of KEI. In other words, although it is very limited, Economic and Institutions Regime Index improves the values for OIC member countries. However, as discussed above, this slight improvement is mainly based on removal of barriers to entry, mainly caused by WTO membership requirements. The more detailed analysis of these indicators will be analysed below individually in Tables 7, 8, 9 and 10. Table 6: Knowledge Index averages 10 9 8 7 6 OIC AVERAGE 5 OECD AVERAGE 4 EU-15 AVERAGE 3 2 1 0 1995 2000 2012 One interesting note on both KEI and KI averages is the slight decrease for both EU15 and OECD member countries. However as shown in Tables 5 and 6, the decline for OECD countries between 2000 and 2012 has been far more significant. Unreported country analysis suggest this widening gap is actually the poor performance of a group of OECD countries, such as; Australia, Switzerland, the U.S.A., South Korea, Japan, Mexico and Turkey (which is also an OIC member). On the other hand, the latest results also indicate some OIC member countries have achieved improvements in the results. For example, Saudi Arabia, Oman, U.A.E., Algeria and Azerbaijan are among the countries with highest improvements. In a specific case Saudi Arabia is the country with highest improvement. However, it also 25 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development should be noted that, despite these strong performances, none of the OIC member countries have achieved a place in the top 40. A parallel picture can be seen for the Economic Incentive Regime Averages reported in Table 7 below. Because of poorer performances from the countries mentioned above, there has been a widening gap between OECD member countries and the EU15 members, for the benefit of the latter. In addition, there is a slight improvement and a continuous increasing trend for the OIC member countries. However, as mentioned above this improvement is mainly the result of improvements in barriers to entry, and regulatory and governance structures of OIC member countries still have a long way to improve in order to continue this improving trend and achieve levels similar to those of the OECD and EU-15 member countries. Table 7: Economic Incentive Regime averages 10 9 8 7 6 OIC AVERAGE 5 OECD AVERAGE 4 EU-15 AVERAGE 3 2 1 0 1995 2000 2012 When the analysis shifts to the Innovation Factor Averages as reported in Table 8, similar results appear again. However, this time the gap between the EU-15 countries and the OECD member countries is narrower and this is mainly because of slightly better performances of OECD members in comparison to the previous comparisons. However, the results for OIC member countries seem to follow a similar route to the 26 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development KI and KEI averages and indicate a decline in the performances for the period between 1995 and 2000. In addition, the improving upward trend presented for the Economic Incentive Regime averages is not present for the Innovation Factor averages, further supporting the analysis about the relatively stronger performances of OIC member countries on the economic openness indicators. Unfortunately, if the analysis is directed to the Education Contribution comparisons, the same disappointing performance for the OIC member countries is repeated again, as seen in Table 9. However, this time the performance is steady, and does not show any indication of decline. On the other hand, this lack of decline does not present a positive outlook, since the huge margin between the OIC members and the EU-15 countries and OECD members. Table 8: Innovation Factor averages 10 9 8 7 6 OIC AVERAGE 5 OECD AVERAGE 4 EU-15 AVERAGE 3 2 1 0 1995 2000 2012 The average results for the EU-15 and OECD member countries also show, albeit very slightly, a decline as well. However, this time the gap between the performances of these two groups is the minimum of the all six indicators employed. In other words, it appears that there is slight decline in the performances of these two samples, but the 27 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development importance given and efforts focused on education contributions are constant for all countries of these two groups. Table 9: Education Contribution averages 9 8 7 6 5 OIC AVERAGE 4 OECD AVERAGE 3 EU-15 AVERAGE 2 1 0 1995 2000 2012 The comparisons on the Information and Communications Technology Averages provide a different story. First of all, the decline for the OECD countries after 2000 again reaches to an important level. However, this time country performances within the group diversify much more significantly. Although, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Switzerland and South Korea show very strong performances, disappointing performances from Turkey, Mexico and the U.S.A. widens the margin for the benefit of the EU-15 countries. When it comes to the OIC members, the performances are again disappointing. First of all, it appears that initially, this was the indicator that the OIC member averages show the strongest performances and the gap between the OIC member averages and the other two groups were the minimum. However, the poor performances of OIC member countries between 1995 and 2000, shifts this initially promising position to the averages of the other six indicators. On the other hand, this indicator is the one with the most diverse performances from the OIC member countries. For example, ICT is the only indicator that has one OIC member, Bahrain, 28 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development in the top-40. In addition, countries such as Oman and Saudi Arabia also provide stronger results in comparison to the other OIC members. However, in unreported country analysis, the Gulf Cooperation Council region countries are the only ones with significant improvements, whereas the other members are performing in the same line with the other six indicator averages. In addition, this still provides a disappointing result, and even with stronger performances, the OIC member countries does not seem to catch up with the developed members of the EU-15 and OECD in the near future. Table 10: Information and Communication Technology averages 10 9 8 7 6 OIC AVERAGE 5 OECD AVERAGE 4 EU-15 AVERAGE 3 2 1 0 1995 2000 2012 Overall, the analysis of Total factor Productivities and six different indicators of KAM of the Worldbank provide results that are both disappointing and discouraging for the OIC member countries in comparison to the more developed EU-15 and OECD member countries. First of all the Total Factor Productivity results indicate that instead of narrowing, the gap between the capital and labour productivities of the OIC countries and EU-15 and OECD members is widening for the benefit of the latter two. Second, the gap between the KEI and KI averages of these three groups seem to remain on a steady course, which is also suggesting that catching up is not going to be possible in the near future. However, two areas, Economic Incentive Regime and 29 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development Education indicators for OIC countries show a slightly upward trend. However, this upward trend is still inadequate for achieving the levels of the developed economies. Third, the Innovation and ICT indicator values suggest a sharp decline for the OIC member economies between 1995 and 2000. This decline is especially significant for ICT, the factor which had the most promising initial values in 1995. On the other hand, it should also be remembered that this also coincides with the East Asian and Russian economic crises, both of which had much more significant impact on the developing economies, such as the OIC members, instead of more developed economies of EU-15 and OECD members. It is also promising that, after the affects of these negative factors have disappeared, the efforts from the OIC countries on these two indicators seem to have reached to the pre-crises levels. Finally, the diverse values of performances from OIC member countries which are unreported in this study, it is necessary to have detailed analyses of individual country performances for all sub sections of Human Development Index and KAM. 6. Conclusion It is evident that Islamic economics and finance has progressed a long way in the last couple decades. Today Islamic finance is one of the hottest topics in the banking and finance industry, with almost double digit annual growth through the last decade. In parallel, the wider macroeconomic performances of the OIC member countries also show promising results. Within the last decade three OIC members, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and Turkey achieved strong economic growth and have solidified their positions among the twenty largest economies globally. Moreover, if the analysis moves to the wealth and prosperity per person, there are also impressive performances from OIC members; Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait are among the top 20 globally for per person income. 30 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development However, when the focus moves from the growth to development of the countries and societies, this rosy picture of impressive performances becomes pale and fades away. United Nations Human Development Index, the most comprehensive benchmark for development of economies suggest that, even the richest of the OIC members have achieved level of developments only comparable to economies much smaller and much less wealthy. Remembering the paramount importance of development in Islam and the aspirations of the founding fathers of the modern Islamic economic thought, these results suggest stark contrast and a bitter feel of failure. The analysis of Solow residual, which is a measure of innovation, development and technological achievement supports the analysis above, but also provides another set of results for Muslim economies. Even worse, instead of suggesting an improvement for the OIC member countries side, the gap between the developed world and the developing economies of the OIC members is constantly widening with the support of increased number of innovations, technological developments, improved efficiency and productivity. As suggested above, the path to development seems to be running on the grounds of a knowledge based economics frame. It is not a coincidence that the indicators that are employed constructing the Human Development Index are almost exactly the same as the indicators that construct the Knowledge Assessment Methodology frame and Knowledge and Knowledge Economy indices. However, the poor performances of the OIC member countries, despite individual and temporary improvements in all six sections of KAM prove that, unfortunately the path for the ultimate aim of human development for Muslim economies is still far away. However, the diverse results within the member countries for different indicators prove that a further and more detailed analysis is required on the subject. 31 Knowledge-Based Islamic Economics for Sustainable Economic Development The authors of this study suggest that establishing an economic development model based on the frame of Knowledge-Based Economics is of a paramount importance. It should not be forgotten that the emergence of modern Islamic economic thought in the 1960s and 1970s was mainly a reaction to the neo-classical growth models suggesting an ever existing gap between the rich and the poor and that cannot provide a solution narrowing this gap. Since the macroeconomics theory has moved its focus to development rather than growth, while endogenousing innovation, knowledge creation and technological improvements. It is clear that the move for Islamic economics should be in the same direction. 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