AP Environmental Science
Name:
Period:
SRI STORE Project Day 2 – Not In My Back Yard (How Will Climate Change Affect
Northern California)
Directions: Using Google Earth and the STORE data set, you will be
asked to evaluate the climate change impact to California between now
and 2050.
Purpose:
• Learn how GIS (Graphical Information Systems) tools (Google
Earth) collect and display temperature, precipitation and vegetation
data
• Learn about climate change models
• Use GIS databases to study climate pattern changes in California
• Gather current and projected data about temperature and rainfall
changes in California
• Analyze the impact of projected climate change on various types of vegetation in California
Background Information about Our Computer Simulation
Geographical Information Systems (GIS) such as ArcGIS or Google Earth allow scientists and students to display sets of
different data such as rainfall, temperature and plant populations in one map format. In this lab activity, you will
incorporate layers of data onto a map of the California Study Area, a region stretching from San Jose eastward to the
Sierra foothills. The map format allows you to easily visualize the relationship between temperature, rainfall and
vegetation types.
Our data about current vegetation types and their locations is collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Current
average temperature and precipitation data is collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
and National Climate Data Center (NCDC). These data can be layered onto our map of the California Study Area and you
can see how vegetation types vary by region. We can study eight different vegetation types whose current tolerance for
altitude, rainfall and temperature are shown below:
Tolerance Ranges for Various California Vegetation Types
Vegetation Type
Annual Precipitation
(rain and snow fall)
(in/yr)
July Daily High
Temperature ( oF )
W inter Low
Temperature ( oF)
Elevation
(ft)
Crops
5-30
80-100
32-40
0-1500
Deciduous Forest
20-40
90-100
25-40
100-2800
Evergreen Forest
20-70
60-100
0-50
100-7500
Mixed Forest
12-50
80-100
32-50
100-1700
Grassland
5-100
60-100
15-50
100-3300
Shrub
12-100
80-100
15-40
100-3300
Herbaceous Wetland
5-30
70-80
32-50
0-2700
Wooded Wetland
5-20
90-100
32-50
0-1900
However, in order to predict how vegetation patterns will
be affected by climate change, we will need information
about temperature and rainfall patterns in the future. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an
international scientific organization that has produced
several scenarios about climate change, and our lab
activity uses one of the more severe of those scenarios
(IPCC A2).
In the U.S, the National Center for Atmospheric
Research (NCAR) Community Climate Change Model
(CCSM) uses the IPCC-A2 scenario to make predictions
about how climate change affects local temperature and
rainfall patterns.
This activity involves using current and projected rainfall
and temperature data to analyze the impact of climate change in our local California Study Area.
Using Google Earth as well as the classroom reference sheets, begin filling in your data on the tables provided.
Analysis of Precipitation Patterns
1. Compare the change in precipitation among the 5 weather stations. Is there a trend or is the result variable?
Cite specific data as evidence to support your conclusion. (2 Points)
2. Will the predominant vegetation surrounding each weather station remain similar from now to the year 2050? Use
specific data as evidence to support your conclusion. (2 Points)
3. Examine the Sierra Nevada regions near the Sonora and Twin Lakes weather stations. What do you think will
happen to the snow pack and reservoirs in these regions by the year 2050? What impact will this have on
California’s water supply? Use specific data as evidence to support your conclusion. (2 Points)
Data Table 2: Temperature Data Collection and Assessment
Refer to the instruction sheet at your lab station for tips to find and access the necessary data. Find the relevant data and
fill in the information in your data table. (2 Points)
Analysis of Temperature Data
1. Evaluate the projected change in January and July temperatures between now and 2050 among the 5 weather stations.
Is the change in July consistent? Give numerical evidence to support your conclusion. (3 Points)
2. Making an assumption that the range of tolerance for each vegetation type does not change between now and the year
2050, evaluate how the projected temperature changes will affect vegetation in each region. Discuss and describe
which regions will have vegetation changes, and give numerical evidence to support your conclusions. (2 Points)
3. Of course, organisms do adapt to changes in environment through their ability to migrate to
more suitable regions and via the process of natural selection. In this case:
a. Describe the process by which plants “migrate” to other regions. Do you think there
will be enough time for vegetation to migrate to a more suitable climate while
climate change is occurring? (2 Points)
b. When considering traits of “r” and “k” selected organisms as studied earlier in the
year, describe specific organism traits will be selected for if climate is changing at a
rapid pace? (2 Points)
c. Briefly describe how selection pressure changes the vegetation’s gene pool. How does an organisms “range of
tolerance” play a part in this. What type of selection would you predict to play a major role in organisms
adapting to climate change in the California Study Areas? Explain your answer. Refer to the diagram at the
right showing different types of natural selection (Disruptive, Stabilizing & Directional). (2 Points)
4. Do you think there will be enough time to allow for adaptation to the changed climate? Cite specific evidence
and data to support your conclusion. (2 Points)
5. Based upon the expected change in vegetation, describe the impact to food webs in habitats near each of the 5
weather stations. Give specific examples to support your conclusion. (2 Points)
Analyze Regional Variability
1. Was the impact of precipitation and temperature change consistent from one weather station to another? Cite specific
evidence from each station to support your conclusion. (2 Points)
2. How are crops different than other vegetation types? Thinking about advances in biotechnology, specifically that of
GMO’s (Genetically Modified Organisms) and irrigation (drip irrigation), how might the expected scenarios for 2050
values not account for the reality of how crops will be affected? (2 Points)
3. Now, look at the reference sheets showing world maps and global predictions for sea level, precipitation and
temperature changes under the IPCC A2 scenario. What part or parts of the world shows the greatest impact?
Will very many people notice this change? What challenge will Europe face with both increased temperature and
less rainfall? What will the impact be in Asia? (2 Points)
4. Based upon the variability in impact of climate change, would citizens of each region agree on the importance
of trying to minimize climate change? Explain and justify your conclusion. Use specific countries in your
justification. (2 Points)
SRI STORE Project Day 2 – Not In My Backyard (How Will Climate Change Affect Northern California)
Weather
Station
Data & Calculation Table 1: Precipitation Data Collection and Assessment (2 Points)
Refer to the instruction sheet at your lab station for tips to find and access the necessary data. Find the relevant data and fill in the information in your data table.
T win
Lakes
Sonora
Modesto
Mount
Hamilton
San Jose
Data
Location
3 Predominant
Vegetation
Type(s)
Vegetation
Precipitation
Tolerance
Range (in/yr)
Current Annual
2050
Precipitation
Precipitation
Precipitation
Difference
(in/yr)
(in/yr)
(in/year)
(AnnPrecip)
Google Earth Data Layer
STORE Activity #2
Google Earth Weather
Station
Google Earth Data
Layer
Calculation
Percent Change in
Precipitation (%)
Calculation
Is 2050
Precipitation
Within Vegetation
Tolerance range?
Student Inference
SRI STORE Project Day 2 – Not In My Backyard (How Will Climate Change Affect Northern California
Weather
Station
Data & Calculation Table 2: Temperature Data Collection and Assessment (2 Points)
Refer to the instruction sheet at your lab station for tips to find and access the necessary data. Find the relevant data and fill in the information in your data table.
Vegetation
Vegetation
3
Temperature Temperature Current Jan.
Predominant
Tolerance
Tolerance
A vg. Low
Vegetation
Range
Range July
Temp ( oF)
Type(s)
o
o
January ( F )
( F)
T win
Lakes
Sonora
Modesto
Mount
Hamilton
San Jose
Google Earth Data STORE Activity
Data
Layer
#2
Location
STORE Activity
#2
2050
January
A vg. Daily
Low Temp
( oF)
Current July
A vg. Daily
High Temp
( oF)
2050 July
Avg. Daily
High Temp
( oF)
Google Earth Google Earth Data Google Earth Google Earth Data
Weather Station
Layer
Weather Station
Layer
January
Difference
( oF)
Calculation
Is 2050
Is 2050 July
July
January
Temp
Within
Difference Temp Within
the
tolerance
the tolerance
( oF)
range?
range?
Calculation
Student Inference Student Inference