Name_____________________________
Period_______
NOT IN MY BACKYARD!!
How Will Climate Change
Affect Northern California?
Purpose
∙
Learn how GIS tools (Google Earth) collects and displays temperature, precipitation and vegetation
data
∙
Learn about climate change models
∙
Use GIS databases to study climate pattern changes in California
∙
Gather current and projected data about temperature and rainfall changes in California
∙
Analyze the impact of projected climate change on various types of vegetation in California
Background Information About Our Computer Simulation
Geographical Information Systems (GIS) such as ArcGIS or Google Earth allow scientists and students to
display sets of different data such as rainfall, temperature and plant populations in one map format. In this lab
activity, you will incorporate layers of data onto a map of the California Study Area, a region stretching from
San Jose eastward to the Sierra foothills. The map format allows you to easily visualize the relationship
between temperature, rainfall and vegetation types.
Our data about current vegetation types and their locations is collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).
Current average temperature and precipitation data is collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) and National Climate Data Center (NCDC). These data can be layered onto our map
of the California Study Area and you can see how vegetation types vary by region. We can study eight different
vegetation types. Their current tolerance for altitude, rainfall and temperature are shown below:
Tolerance Ranges for Various California Vegetation Types
Vegetation Type
Annual Precipitation
(rain and snowfall)
(in/yr)
July Daily High
Temperature (oF)
Winter Low
Temperature (oF)
Elevation
(ft)
crops
5-30
80-100
32-40
0-1500
deciduous forest
20-40
90-100
25-40
100-2800
evergreen forest
20-70
60-100
0-50
100-7500
mixed forest
12-50
80-100
32-50
100-1700
grassland
5-100
60-100
15-50
100-3300
shrub
12-100
80-100
15-40
100-3300
herbaceous wetland
5-30
70-80
32-50
0-2700
wooded wetland
5-20
90-100
32-50
0-1900
However, in order to predict how vegetation patterns
will be affected by climate change, we will need
information about temperature and rainfall patterns
in the future. The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) is an international scientific
organization that has produced several scenarios
about climate change, and our lab activity uses the
most severe of those scenarios (IPCC A2).
In the U.S, the National Center for Atmospheric
Research (NCAR) Community Climate Change
Model (CCSM) uses the IPCC-A2 scenario to make
predictions about how climate change affects local
temperature and rainfall patterns.
This activity involves using current and projected rainfall and temperature data to analyze the impact of climate
change in our local California Study Area.
Part I: Impact of Climate Change on Crops
Our planet has a long history of fluctuations in temperature, with alternating warm periods and ice ages.
Organisms adapt to these changes over time, and the fundamental question about current climate change is this:
Is the pace of warming too fast for organisms to adapt?
From lecture notes and your own knowledge, list and describe the means by which all plants can adapt to
changes in climate.
Now, list and describe the additional mechanisms by which cultivated crops can adapt to changes in climate.
Data Table 1: Predicted changes in Precipitation and Temperature, present to 2050
Refer to the instruction sheet at your lab station for tips to find and access the necessary data. Find the relevant
data and fill in the information in your data table.
Precipitation Data
Weather Station
Vegetation
Type(s)
Modesto
crops
Vegetation
Precipitation
Tolerance
Range (in/yr)
Current
Precipitation
(in/yr)
2050
Precipitation
(in/year)
Precipitation
Difference
(in/yr)
Is 2050
precipitation
within tolerance
range?
Vegetation
Temperature
Range oF
Current Jan.
Avg. Low
Temp oF
2050 Jan. Avg.
Low Temp oF
Current July
Avg. Daily
High Temp oF
2050 July Avg.
Daily High
Temp oF
Temperature data
Weather Station
Vegetation
Type(s)
Modesto
crops
Analysis of Crop Adaptation
Calculate and describe the changes in January and July temperatures, showing your work.
Are the projected temperature and precipitation within the tolerance range for crops? Justify your conclusion
with numerical evidence.
In your opinion, can crops adjust to the changed climate? Give a clear answer and describe at least three
mechanisms that will allow the continuation of agriculture in the central valley.
Part 2: Projected impact of changed precipitation patterns.
Refer to the instruction sheet at your lab station for tips to find and access the necessary data. Find the relevant
data and fill in the information in your data table.
Data Table 2: Projected temperature changes in selected N. California regions
Weather
Station
3 Predominant
Vegetation
Type(s)
Vegetation
Precipitation Tolerance
Range (in/yr)
Current
Precipitation
(in/yr)
2050
Precipitation
(in/year)
Precipitation
Difference
(in/yr)
Is 2050
precipitation within
tolerance range?
Twin
Lakes
Sonora
San Jose
Analysis of Precipitation Patterns
1.
Compare the change in precipitation among these weather stations. Describe any trends you discern
and cite specific data as evidence to support your conclusion.
2.
Will the predominant vegetation surrounding each weather station remain similar from now to the
year 2050? How will the plants adapt? Use specific data as evidence to support your conclusion.
3.
Examine the Sierra Nevada regions near the Twin Lakes and Sonora weather stations. What do you
think will happen to the snow pack and reservoirs in these regions by the year 2050. What impact
will this have on California’s water supply? Use specific data as evidence to support your
conclusion.
Part 3: Projected impact of Temperature Changes
Refer to the instruction sheet at your lab station for tips to find and access the necessary data. Find the relevant
data and fill in the information in your data table – make sure you use Average January Low and Average July
High data sets.
Data Table 3: Temperature Data Collection and Assessment
Refer to the instruction sheet at your lab station for tips to find and access the necessary data. Find the relevant
data and fill in the information in your data table.
Weather
Station
3 Predominant
Vegetation
Type(s)
Vegetation
Temperature
Range oF
Current Jan.
Avg. Temp
o
F
2050 Jan
Avg. Temp
o
F
Current July
Avg. High
Temp oF
2050 July
Avg. High
Temp oF
Is 2050 July
Temp. within
the tolerance
range?
Twin
Lakes
Sonora
San Jose
Analysis of Temperature Data
1.
Evaluate the projected change in January and July temperatures among these weather stations.
Is the change in July consistent? Give numerical evidence to support your conclusion.
2.
Assuming that the tolerance range for each vegetation type does not change between now and the year
2050, evaluate how the projected temperature changes will affect vegetation in each region.
Discuss and describe which regions will have vegetation changes, and give numerical evidence to
support your conclusions.
3.
Of course, organisms do adapt to changes in environment through their ability to migrate to more
suitable regions and via the process of natural selection. In this case:
A.
Describe the process by which plants “migrate” to other regions. Do you think there will be
enough time for vegetation to migrate to a more suitable climate while climate change is
occurring? Justify your answer.
B.
Briefly describe how selection pressure selection pressure changes the vegetation’s gene pool.
Do you think there will be enough time to allow for adaptation to the changed climate? Cite
specific evidence and data to support your conclusion.
4.
Based upon the expected change in vegetation, describe the impact to food webs in habitats near each
of the 5 weather stations. Give specific examples to support your conclusion.
Analyze Regional Variability
2.
Now, look at the two enclosed world maps showing global predictions for sea level, precipitation and
temperature changes under the IPCC A2 scenario.
A.
What part of the world shows the greatest impact? Will very many people notice this change?
B.
What challenge will Europe face with both increased temperature and less rainfall?
C.
What will the impact be in Asia?
3.
Based upon the variability in impact of climate change, would citizens of each region agree on the
importance of trying to minimize climate change? Explain and justify your conclusion.
Precipitation Data
Weather
Station
Predominant Precipitation
Current
2050
Vegetation
Tolerance Range Precipitation Precip.
Type(s)
(in/yr)
(in/yr)
(in/year)
Twin
Lakes
Evergreen
20-70
Shrub
12-100
H. Wetlands
Precip.
Difference
(in/yr)
Is 2050 data
within tolerance
range?
yes
46.5
50-70
3.5-33.5
yes
5-30
no
Shrub
12-100
yes
Grassland
5-100
Evergreen
20-70
yes
Crops
5-30
yes
Grassland
5-100
H. Wetlands
5-30
yes
Mount
Mixed
Hamilton
Grass
12-50
yes
Shrub
12-100
yes
Grass
5-100
yes
Shrub
12-100
Sonora
Modesto
San Jose
(urban)
5-100
32.5
13.1
23.7
15.1
16-26
16-26
16-26
16-26
-16.5 to -8.5
-2.9 to 12.9
2.3-8.7
0.9-9.9
yes
yes
yes
yes
Mixed
12-50
yes
Temperature Data
Weather
Station
3 Vegetation
Type(s)
Twin
Lakes
evergreen
0-100
shrub
15-100
H. wetland
32-80
no
shrub
15-100
no
grass
15-100
evergreen
0-100
no
crops
32-100
no
grass
15-100
H. wetland
32-80
no
mixed forest
32-100
maybe
grass
15-100
shrub
15-100
maybe
grass
15-100
maybe
Sonora
Modesto
Mount
Hamilton
San Jose
Vegetation
Current Jan.
Temp Range Avg. Low
o
F
Temp oF
Current July
Avg. High
Temp oF
2050 July Diff.
Avg. High oF
Temp oF
Is 2050
within
range?
yes
17.8
32
40.1
37.5
70.7
94.1
93.6
78.2
74-84
104-114
104-114
94-104
3-13
10-18
10-18
16-26
yes
no
no
maybe
(urban)
shrub
15-100
mixed
32-100
41.7
84.3
94-104
10-20
maybe
maybe