Drought update for week March 2nd, 2015
Latest situation
Canterbury received small amounts of rainfall in the past week, more in the Kaikoura area than
across the plains. It was not enough to significantly lessen the soil moisture deficit and has made no
impression on Opuha dam levels.
Last 7 days rain (mm)
Kaikoura coast (Rosy Morn)
Waipara (White Gorge)
Christchurch (Botanic Gardens)
Geraldine Forest
Fairlie (Kimbell)
Timaru Downs (Hadlow)
Bluecliffs (Otaio)
2/03/2015
5
0
0.2
1.5
5
2.5
0
Rain forecast
There is some rain forecast for the end of this week. The mid-range forecast are for continued
settled weather patterns.
Issues during last week
The issue of how hard to press on the limits set via annual volumes has been discussed at directorate
and by Commissioners. The answer is that annual volumes will be enforced as they are part of
consent conditions. Environment Canterbury is willing to work with water users around reviews of
those consent conditions and the formation of water user groups but the volumes set for this year
will be enforced. A press release to this effect was issued during last week.
A letter to the editor from Bill Bayfield was sent to several newspapers explaining why irrigators are
still irrigating when there is a severe drought on. The water for irrigation will be from groundwater,
stored sources or from alpine rivers following nor’west rain in the mountains.
Opuha dam and Opihi River
Opuha Dam has reached a point of all irrigators being on full restriction. The current level is 370.2m
asl (2/3/15). The dam is still releasing more water than it is receiving in order to try and keep the
Opihi River flowing in its lower reaches. Opuha Dam Company estimate that they can do this for a
further 2 weeks.
MPI/Federated Farmers drought committee
Main concerns during the weekly phone meeting were around winter feed and making sure people
are aware of drought events taking place. The ECan position on annual volumes was also discussed.
Otago Regional Council have not considered their position on this.
I have copied a table of drought events South Canterbury (or nearby) at the end of this document.
Water resources
Rivers in South Canterbury continue at very low levels and most are on full restriction. The Temuka
River is at a record low level for March.
1
Average March
3000
2000
Lowest March on record
l/s
Current flow
Lowest flow ever
1000
0
Orari River at Temuka River
Gorge
at Manse
Bridge
Opihi at
Rockwood
Pareora River Tengawai Waihao River
at Huts
River at Cave
at
McCulloughs
Flows in South Canterbury hill-fed rivers against averages and record low flows. (N.B. Orari average
March flow is off the scale (3734 l/s)
North Canterbury received very little rainfall and the rivers are at very low levels. Most North
Canterbury rivers are on full restriction and the Waipara at Teviotdale is close to a record low for
March.
Average March
Current flow
Lowest March on record
l/s
1000
Lowest flow ever
0
Lyell Creek at Selwyn River at Waipara River Waipara River Ashley River at
d/s Warren
Coes Ford
at Teviotdale at White Gorge
Gorge
Creek Confl.
Flows in North Canterbury rivers against averages and record low flows. (N.B. Ashley average
March flow is off the scale (3222 l/s)
Most of the alpine rivers (Waitaki, Rangitata, Rakaia, Waimakariri, Hurunui, Waiau, Clarence) are in
partial or full restriction after a week or more of dry weather in the mountains.
Groundwater levels remain very low throughout Canterbury. 20% of wells measured in February
were at an all time low
2
This year the percentage of time rivers are on restriction is over double the average irrigation
season. October 1- Feb 27th average for partial restriction is 6% of time; this season it was 14% of
time for all of Canterbury. Full restrictions are almost exactly double the average.
Rainfall total in last month (mm)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Kaikoura
coast (Rosy
Morn)
Waipara Christchurch Geraldine
(White
(Botanic
Forest
Gorge)
Gardens)
Fairlie
(Kimbell)
Timaru
Downs
(Hadlow)
Bluecliffs
(Otaio)
February rainfall at selected sites in Canterbury. The dashed line is the February average for
Christchurch
Modelled soil moisture deficit (from NIWA). LHS = average year; middle = last year; LHS = this year.
Tim Davie, 2/3/15
3
DROUGHT EVENTS
SOUTH ISLAND
Date
3 March
3 March
4 March
5 March
6 March
Start
time
Event name
Location
Organiser
About
11am to
2pm
(includes
lunch)
1pm
onwards
Rural Life: Keeping
the Balance
workshop
Early Settlers Hall
90 Thames St
Oamaru
Learn to recognise signs and symptoms of stress,
Learn how to talk about it,
Learn where to get help.
B+LNZ North &
East Otago
Farming for Profit
Field Day
Blair & Jane Smith’s
property, 457
Dunrobin Road,
Oamaru
Please note, must register:
Contact Sophie
sophie.carty@wellsouth.org.nz or
03 477 1163. Numbers are limited.
Richard & Jacqui Robinson
(facilitators) 03 693 9077.
11am to
2pm
(includes
lunch)
10:45 am
- 1:00 pm
Rural Life: Keeping
the Balance
workshop
Kurow Golf Club
5 Manse Road
Kurow
DairyNZ “Tactics
for Tight Times”
Field day
James & Ceri Bourke
(SM) and Peter &
Ruth Mossman (O),
186 St Leonards
Road, Culverden. SN
37902
10.45am
– 1pm
South Canterbury
Dry Conditions,
Catch up
Springfield Farm.
Matt Goodwin
(Managers), Paul &
Sue Goodwin
(owners)
199 Springfield
Road, Milford 7986,
SN 36804
Please note, must register:
Contact Sophie
sophie.carty@wellsouth.org.nz or
03 477 1163. Numbers are limited.
Dairy NZ
Virginia Serra 021 932 515
Dairy NZ
Caleb Strowger
0275 934 124
Caleb.Strowger@dairynz.co.nz
Speakers:
David Stevens, AgResearch nutritionist/agronomist –
managing animal nutrition at "pinch times"
Graham Kerr, Agriseeds agronomist – managing
pasture for persistence during the dry and once it
rains
Meet at the yards, signposted from Five Forks
School.
Learn to recognise signs and symptoms of stress,
Learn how to talk about it,
Learn where to get help.
Farmers. Topics include
- tools, tips and tactics to strengthen your
business.
- economic outlook for dairy.
- learn cost-effective tactics
Updates from the local farmer and hear about:
- their current situation including financial and
physical data
- their plan to manage through a low milk price
- specific tactics that work for them.
Struggling or having issues with the dry or lack of
water. Then get along to the South Canterbury dry
conditions catch up.
Hear from other farmers in similar situations and
discuss strategies for autumn and towards winter.
What are the options? What tools do we have? and
how do we use them ?
4
9 March
10:45 am
- 1:00 pm
DairyNZ Fairlie
Farm Systems
Group
John & Sarah Wright
(O) and Georgie
Wright (Mgr), Te
Ruahete, Talbot
Road, Fairlie. SN
36781
Dairy NZ
Caleb Strowger
0275 934 124
Caleb.Strowger@dairynz.co.nz
17
March
10:45 am
- 1:00 pm
DairyNZ “Tactics
for Tight Times”
Field day
Scott & Leone Evans
(50:50 SM) and
Grant & Judy Evans
Farm (O), 416
Domain Road,
Oxford. SN
37717/37737
Dairy NZ
Noelle Fox 021 246 2775
17
March
10:45 am
- 1:00 pm
DairyNZ “Tactics
for Tight Times”
Field day
Tim & Megan
Parsons (LOSM &
equity partners) and
Winchmore Dairy
Farms Ltd (O),
Winchmore School
Road, Winchmore.
SN 37272
Dairy NZ
Erin Sinclair 021 243 7337
17
March
4pm
BNZ event series 1
- Innovate or
Stagnate
Fairlie Community
Centre, 53 Main
Street, Fairlie
See Doug Avery’s website at
www.resilientfarmer.co.nz
18
4pm
BNZ event series 1
Geraldine Pavillion,
See Doug Avery’s website at
Graziers (wintering dairy cows and young dairy
stock) welcome to attend as we will be discussing
strategies to cope with lower feed availability for the
winter period especially in dry land areas.
It been a tough season out there and it's crunch
time…
Te Ruahete has offered to host the Fairlie group to
discuss the current issues on farm.
- What cow do we dry off and when?
- What do we do with them when they are dry?
- When it does rain, what are the options for building
feed back-up?
Farmers. Topics include
- tools, tips and tactics to strengthen your
business.
- economic outlook for dairy.
- learn cost-effective tactics
Updates from the local farmer and hear about:
- their current situation including financial and
physical data
- their plan to manage through a low milk price
- specific tactics that work for them.
Farmers. Topics include
- tools, tips and tactics to strengthen your
business.
- economic outlook for dairy.
- learn cost-effective tactics
Updates from the local farmer and hear about:
- their current situation including financial and
physical data
- their plan to manage through a low milk price
- specific tactics that work for them.
Speakers include: Doug Avery of Bonavaree Farm,
Seddon, Marlborough.
BNZ Fairlie, Rural Lending Manager.
These talks will cover not just new methods, but the
best in thinking, people, technology and all smart
agriculture has to offer. There will be a large number
of agribusiness partners at each event, all of them
critical to Doug's transformation — and they'll all be
there to discuss what it takes to bring about real,
successful change management.
Speakers include: Doug Avery of Bonavaree Farm,
5
March
19
March
4pm
- Innovate or
Stagnate
Geraldine Domain,
Hislop Street,
Geraldine
www.resilientfarmer.co.nz
Seddon, Marlborough.
BNZ Geraldine, Rural Lending Manager.
These talks will cover not just new methods, but the
best in thinking, people, technology and all smart
agriculture has to offer. There will be a large number
of agribusiness partners at each event, all of them
critical to Doug's transformation — and they'll all be
there to discuss what it takes to bring about real,
successful change management.
BNZ event series 1
- Innovate or
Stagnate
Oamaru Opera
House 90 Thames
Street
See Doug Avery’s website at
www.resilientfarmer.co.nz
Speakers include:
Doug Avery of Bonavaree Farm, Seddon,
Marlborough.
BNZ Oamaru, Rural Lending Manager.
These talks will cover not just new methods, but the
best in thinking, people, technology and all smart
agriculture has to offer. There will be a large number
of agribusiness partners at each event, all of them
critical to Doug's transformation — and they'll all be
there to discuss what it takes to bring about real,
successful change management.
6