Management Education in India: Avenue for Social Stratification or Social Mobility? Anirudh Krishna Professor of Public Policy and Political Science Duke University Durham, NC 27708-0245, USA +1 (919) 613-7337 ak30@duke.edu and Ankur Sarin Assistant Professor, Public Systems Group Indian Institute of Management (Ahmedabad) Ahmedabad, Gujarat 380015, India +91 79-66324953 asarin@iimahd.ernet.in 1 ABSTRACT Social mobility is a key understudied feature in developing countries, even though understanding – and then raising – social mobility can help counter increasing inequalities of income and wealth. Lacking longitudinal data sets, innovative methods of investigation are required. Investigating the determinants of entry to educational institutions that serve as gateways to higher-paying careers provides one way of uncovering mobility trends. An MBA degree is close to the pinnacle of educational aspiration among Indian youth; the number of MBA-granting institutions has vastly expanded. Have people from less well-off sections of Indian society also benefited from this expansion of opportunity, or are these positions mostly captured by established elites? Results from a sample of 1,137 MBA students at 12 Indian business schools belonging to three different quality tiers present a mixed picture. Intergenerational stickiness is evident insofar as parents’ education and occupations continue to matter. Greater wealth, higher caste, and urban origin also make a difference. But more than a few students scoring poorly on each of these attributes have also gained admission to high-ranking MBA programs. A range of factors – career guidance and information, motivation and role models – that we group under the category “soft skills,” have helped mitigate the effects of multiple socio-economic disadvantages. Enhancing social mobility prospects in the future will be assisted by policies that nurture soft skills. 2 The explosive growth in India of business schools offering MBA or equivalent degrees provides a locus of inquiry into questions regarding equal opportunity and social mobility. As in other market economies, especially richer ones, pursuing an MBA has come to be a widely-shared aspiration among those seeking upward mobility in India (Dayal 2002; Moon 2002): “Enrolling in an MBA program, particularly at an elite school, is for some the equivalent of taking an elevator to the executive suite.”1 Starting from a tiny base in the early 1950s, business schools in India increased slowly in number over the next 30 years, with no more than four new schools being added every year. Since the mid-1990s, however, following economic liberalization, more than 100 new business schools have been established annually. Over 100,000 students start MBA programs every year, attracted by the promise of high-paying private-sector jobs, such as existed in miniscule numbers 30 or 40 years ago. Experts in the field expect that these numbers will continue expanding rapidly over the next ten to fifteen years, rising above 300,000 annually in response to growing demand.2 Together with this huge expansion has come a differentiation of MBA programs among different quality tiers. India’s National Knowledge Commission, whose report we cited above, goes on to note that while “the number of business schools has trebled in the last ten years… many [are] of indifferent quality. The market has already started discriminating the quality of institutions and graduates.” Business magazines in India publish annually their pecking orders of business schools; strikingly similar across different publications. 3 We look to this variation across quality tiers to distinguish whether and how people from traditionally disadvantaged backgrounds have or have not been able to avail themselves of these fast-growing opportunities. If people from poorer, minority, and discriminated-caste backgrounds have not able to get into top-tier and elite institutions, like the world-renowned Indian Institutes of Management at Ahmedabad, Bangalore and Calcutta, have they, at least, succeeded in finding places at lower-ranked MBA programs, enhancing to some extent their chances of moving upward economically and socially? What factors have facilitated the entry of those who have gained entry? What other factors have worked to hold back the rest? A proximate answer can be obtained, of course, by looking at candidates’ entrance examination results, but as Heckman (2011:78), summarizing a body of literature, has argued, test scores are themselves influenced by privilege and its absence, and “under adverse conditions, especially, environments are more determinative of many child outcomes.” To what extent do underlying socio-economic factors, like household wealth, gender, caste, religion, geographic location (especially, in the Indian context, rural v. urban upbringing), and parents’ education and occupational status make a difference to an individual’s prospects? And to what extent does a second set of factors, which Heckman (2011) has collectively termed “soft skills” – such as motivation, socialization, aspirations, personal traits, and what Bourdieu (1986) referred to as “cultural capital” – offset or accentuate the effects of socio-economic status? We examine these questions by looking at 4 data collected in 2010 and 2011 from 1,137 MBA students at 12 Indian business schools that belong to three distinct quality tiers, described below in the section on data and methods. EXAMINING SOCIAL MOBILITY The study of social mobility is still in its infancy in India and other developing countries. Despite a recent sharp rise in inequality (Bardhan 2010; OECD 2011), relatively little is known about the nature of factors that can help make better opportunities more widely available, helping hold future inequalities in check. Even in the West, where social mobility has been studied for a longer time and where different schools of thought have emerged, “the transmission of economic success across generations remains something of a black box” (Bowles, Gintis and Groves 2005: 3). Investigators have compared individuals’ social origins – most often examined in relation to their father’s social class, occupational status, income, or education – with the individual’s own attainment expressed in similar terms. In general, a robust correlation has been found to exist between parent’s and children’s socioeconomic status: richer fathers tend to have richer daughters and sons, while poorer children tend to go together with poorer parents. Variations across time and space indicate, however, that the pattern of this relationship may be mutable. The extent of intergenerational income mobility varies significantly across countries; within countries, mobility prospects change over time.3 Explaining these differences has proved so far to be both contentious and inconclusive. Diverse factors have been shown to have varying degrees of influence. 5 Researchers have found, for instance, that “IQ cannot explain why children from lessprivileged social strata systematically perform more poorly than others or why children from privileged families systematically perform better” (Esping-Andersen 2005: 149). Education can certainly help raise social mobility prospects. However, the effects of education are contingent and contextual. While individual advancement is rarely possible without at least some amount of education, having more education provides no assurance of greater economic success.4 Very similar social mobility patterns are seen to prevail across countries with dissimilar levels of public investment in education and diverse organizations of education systems (Erickson and Goldthorpe 2002; Torche 2010). Researchers have examined many other sources of influence, including early childhood nutrition and child rearing practices, race- and neighborhood-related factors, school quality, state-supported daycare centers and pre-school programs, health conditions, and soft skills, including aspirations and cultural capital.5 Each of these factors makes a significant different in particular contexts. Calculations show, however, that all of these factors together explain no more than one-quarter of the observed intergenerational correlation in earnings (Bowles, Gintis and Groves 2005: 20). Initial examinations of social mobility and equal opportunity in India and other developing countries provide indication that parents’ and children’s earnings may be even more closely correlated – mobility may be lower and opportunity structures more impermeable – in developing countries compared to the West. 6 Identifying the factors that matter, however, remains even more of a black box than in the West. Few large-sample 6 projects are available for India that compare sons’ and fathers’ educations or occupations (e.g., Asadullah and Yalonetzky 2012; Jalan and Murgai 2008; Kumar, et al., 2002a, 2002b; Majumder 2010; Motiram and Singh 2012). Because longitudinal data are not available, such studies are limited to making cross-sectional comparisons, examining all fathers and all sons (or daughters), regardless of cohort differences. A disparate set of conclusions has resulted from these studies. On the one hand, Jalan and Murgai (2008) find encouragingly that “Inter-generational mobility in education has improved significantly and consistently across generations. Mobility has improved, on average, for all major social groups and wealth classes.” Similarly, Azam and Bhatt (2012) find “significant improvements in educational mobility across generations in India.” On the other hand, Kumar, et al. (2002b: 4096) conclude that “there has been no systematic weakening of the links between father’s and son’s class positions… The dominant picture is one of continuity rather than change.” In the same vein, Majumder (2010: 463) uncovers “strong intergenerational stickiness in both educational achievement and occupational distribution,” especially among Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs), both historically marginalized groups,7 noting how “occupational mobility is even lower than educational mobility.” Results from some smaller-scale examinations are also available, which have mostly considered engineering colleges or India’s booming software industry, examining the social origins of entrants to these fast-growing sectors. These studies support the less encouraging view reported above, finding that relatively few individuals from poorer households or rural 7 backgrounds have managed to secure positions as software professionals (Krishna and Brihmadesam 2006); and that “the social profile of information technology workers is largely urban, middle class, and high or middle caste” (Upadhya 2007: 1863); because birth within the “educated, professional, urban middle class” overwhelmingly privileges new entrants (Fuller and Narasimhan 2006: 262). The earliest known study of this genre was conducted by Rajagopalan and Singh (1968: 565). Looking at the social background of entry-level students at an elite engineering institute (one of the Indian Institutes of Technology, or IITs), they found that “even though no student is intentionally precluded from securing admission, there are certain disabling and debilitating factors inherent in the structure of society that prevent certain sections from taking advantage of the new educational opportunities.” The factors that their analysis identified as being disabling included being a woman (“no girl”); Muslim religion (“only 1.3 per cent are Muslims”); belonging to a Scheduled Caste or Scheduled Tribe (“not a single student”); and parents with low-levels of education and/or low-skilled and low-paying occupations. To the best of our knowledge, no similar study has looked at these questions within the field of management education, despite it being a towering ambition among youth in India and elsewhere. Drawing upon his personal experience, a former director of the elite Indian Institute of Management at Ahmedabad (IIM-A) opined that “admission policies and methods of IIMs while fair and efficient, have worked largely in favor of the better-off sections of society” (Paul 2012: 146). However, as noted above, other examinations of social mobility have generated more upbeat conclusions, for example, a second study by Kumar, et 8 al. (2002a: 2985) concluded that “it is clear that for many people there has been long-range upward mobility from the lowest ranks of the society to the highest. In that sense, India has been a land of opportunity.” The popular media in India has especially of late been playing up this impression by highlighting accounts of and by individuals whose rise, especially in the world of business, has been nothing short of meteoric.8 It is opportune, therefore, to put these competing visions to the test. Looking at background factors associated with successful entry to MBA programs of different quality tiers, we identify important and policy-relevant influences. Our study is necessarily exploratory and descriptive in nature. We subject our data to rigorous analyses of different kinds, combining both qualitative and quantitative methods, but limitations in data availability combined with the rudimentary state of current knowledge suggest that our findings are best seen as an incremental contribution. Until investments are made toward constructing longitudinal data sets, tracking the same individuals over longer periods of time and regularly monitoring key variables, incrementally pushing forward the frontiers of knowledge about social mobility in the developing world is, however, the best that can be practically accomplished. DATA AND METHODS A questionnaire, available upon request, was formulated, pre-tested, and revised, before being administered to a total of 1,137 students in 12 business schools located in diverse regions of India, and as discussed below, belonging to different quality tiers. Our sample is 9 diverse, therefore, in terms of both geography and institutional quality but not representative in the strictly statistical sense. Students in all but one of these colleges were administered the survey instrument online when they appeared for the AMCAT (Aspiring Minds’ Computer Adaptive Test), a standardized examination that helps students and employers connect with one another.9 Students in the 12th, and highest-tier, business school were separately administered an online version of this survey. Three separate quality tiers were distinguished, based on a variety of criteria, including faculty qualifications, average starting salaries of the graduating class, teaching infrastructure, employers’ perceptions, and the rating schemes of business publications and professional agencies. Institutions within the same tier are broadly similar with respect to admission criteria, academic profile of students, faculty qualifications, infrastructure, and other educational resources. Tier 1 broadly represents the top 20 Indian business schools and besides others includes the six state-managed Indian Institutes of Management that have been in operation for more than five years. Institutes ranked between 21 and 50 are considered within Tier 2, while institutions ranked below 50 have been clubbed together in Tier 3. For reasons of confidentiality, we do not refer to any institution by name. The names of individuals, extracts from whose interviews are cited below, have also been disguised to make good on our promises of anonymity. One of the 12 institutions in our sample is consistently placed among the top-five business schools in India. Almost the entire faculty of this business school has a PhD from eminent national and international institutions. Starting salaries for the class graduating in 10 2010 averaged Indian rupees ( ) 965,000 annually. A total of 280 students from this Tier 1 institution completed our survey, representing a response rate of 38 percent. Two institutions in our sample are Tier 2. About half of all faculty members have PhDs. Average starting salaries for the class graduating in 2011 were 550,000. A total of 247 students from three Tier 2 institutions completed the survey, a response rate of 78 percent. Another eight institutions belong to Tier 3. Only a handful of faculty has PhDs. Average starting salaries are close to 300,000. This tier contributed a total of 610 complete surveys, producing a response rate of 55 percent.10 Three types of analyses were conducted using these data. First, we looked at some characteristics of MBA students, guided by the questions – What makes MBA students special? In what important respects are they different from other young people in India? In addition to socio-economic indicators, we looked at aspects of “soft skills,” including survey questions that help assess differences in career guidance, aspirations and motivations. Second, we utilized logistic regression analysis in order to make comparisons across different quality tiers. Finally, we present results from an analysis of disadvantage, examining the proposition that cumulative liabilities tend to have especially pernicious effects. CHARACTERISTICS OF MBA STUDENTS “Success,” Gladwell (2008: 175-6) notes, “arises out the steady accumulation of advantages: when and where you are born, what your parents did for a living, and what the circumstances of your upbringing were, all make a significant difference in how well you do 11 in the world.” In the Indian context, religious and caste group can make an additional difference (Deshpande and Yadav 2006). We commence our analysis of business school entrants by looking at their gender, religious and caste compositions. Next, we examine differences in household wealth, going on to look at parents’ education and occupations. Third, we look at some circumstances of upbringing, especially rural v. urban residence and migration to towns. Fourth, we examine the difference made by being educated in the medium of the English language, competence in which has come to be a characteristic feature of and almost a requirement of entry to the professional Indian middle class (Fernandes 2006). Fifth, we look at aspects related to information, guidance, and motivation, finding that these factors – which we group together under a category we term “soft skills,” representing less tangible (but no less important) circumstances of upbringing – also make an important difference. Gender, Religion and Caste Just under one-third of all students in these 12 business schools are women, ranging from a low of 16.2 percent in the Tier 1 institution to 36.2 percent in the Tier 3 schools, with this share being 40.2 percent in Tier 2 schools. While low, particularly in the top-tier institution, this percentage is higher than the historic share of women both in higher education and in management positions in India. In the 1960s, according to Rajagopal and Singh (1968), there were no women in elite institutions. Partly as a consequence, “women today comprise only two per cent of the total managerial strength in the Indian corporate sector.” 11 The observed 12 increase in the proportion of women among current-day MBA is, therefore, heartening. However, raising the share of women is a continuing priority. Table 1 presents the religious composition of these students. While the share of Hindus is, on average, close to the population proportion of this religious group (as shown in the last column); the share of Muslims in management education is less than half their population proportion. - Table 1 about here - It is not only management schools where Muslims in India are under-represented. Deshpande’s (2006: 2439) analysis of nationally-representative data showed how Muslims constituted only 5.0 percent of engineering students and only 5.7 percent of students in nonprofessional graduate programs. A high-level committee appointed by the Indian Prime Minister in 2005 to examine the social, economic and educational status of the Muslim community of India found that the disparity in graduation rates between Muslims and others, already large, has widened further after 1970.12 Table 2 provides these students’ caste composition. In addition to SCs and STs, we also looked at the share of Other Backward Castes (OBCs), for whom affirmative action quotas have been mandated relatively recently; these groups, falling ritually between upper castes and SCs, also claim historical discrimination. - Table 2 about here - The shares of SCs and STs are, on average, lower than the shares of these groups in the national population, a feature that is common across-the-board in Indian higher 13 education (Deshpande 2006). Interestingly, however, the shares of these groups (and of OBCs) in the Tier 1 institution is considerably higher than in Tiers 2 and 3. Two likely explanations can be adduced. First, the Tier 1 institution in our sample is state-managed, thus more likely, compared to Tier 2 and 3 schools (which are nearly all privately-managed) to implement faithfully the government’s caste-based affirmative action programs.13 Alternatively, since the share of those selecting “do not wish to respond” as their option to the caste question was relatively large, the possibility of a response bias cannot be ruled out: If a stigma still attaches to lower caste, it is likely that some SCs, STs, and OBCs selected to not respond to this particular question.14 Household Wealth, Parents’ Occupations, and Parents’ Education In order to examine different levels of household wellbeing, we asked respondents about the ownership by their household of origin (i.e., their parents’ household) of 16 types of assets, including movable assets (such as TVs, motorcycles, and refrigerators), immovable assets (homes, commercial properties, agricultural land), and financial assets (stocks, fixed deposit accounts).15 The survey question asked simply about the presence or absence of each asset type in the parental household at the time when the respondent was growing up, specifically when he or she was studying in high school. Basic and relatively low-value assets, possessed on occasion even by less well-off households, form part of this asset list, including bicycles, radios, and pressure cookers. Higher-value and less frequently possessed assets, including stocks and bonds, washing machines, and cars, are also included. We used a simple asset 14 index constructed by adding the total number of assets possessed by each household.16 Table 3 shows the distribution of students by number of assets possessed. - Table 3 about here - In general, MBA students come from households that are better off, on average, compared to the average Indian household. For example, more than 81 percent of respondents grew up within households that owned a refrigerator: 75 percent in Tier 3 schools, 94 percent in Tier 2 schools and 86 percent in the Tier 1 institution. To put these numbers in perspective, in 2001-02 (at the time when most of our respondents would have been at or close to high school) only 13.4 percent of all households in India possessed a refrigerator (NCAER 2005). While higher economic status may confer an advantage in terms of gaining entry, its ability to buy you a place within the highest-ranked institutions is limited. A considerable number of students (18.8 percent of the total) from relatively poor households (fewer than six assets) have also made it into MBA programs of different types. Further, the relationship between economic status and quality of attainment is hardly monotonic: Tier 1 has a higher proportion of students with fewer than six assets (16.8 percent) than Tier 2 (7.9 percent) and a lower proportion than Tier 3 (23.9 percent). Tier 1 also has the lowest proportion of respondents from the top two wealth categories examined in Table 3. The majority (52 percent) of Tier 1 respondents come from middle economic groups (7-10 assets), the children, as we will see below, of salaried professionals. 15 Another indication of relative wealth can be gained by looking at the natures of schools attended from K-12. Poorer households are more likely to send their children to government-run schools. At the primary level, at least, government schools charge no fees, and at higher levels of school education, fees in government schools are nominal, substantially lower than those charged in private schools. Children of relatively deprived families are thus likelier to attend government schools, although there is no one-to-one correspondence. On average, 18.6 percent of our sample had for some part of their school education studied at a government-run school. As before, this proportion varied nonmonotonically across tiers, being lowest in Tier 2 (10 percent) and highest in Tier 3 (23.1 percent), with Tier 1, once again, falling in the middle (18.1 percent). Very few MBA students undertook their entire school education in a government school, constituting 3.9 percent of the total in Tier 3 and 1.8 percent in Tier 1, with the proportion in Tier 2 being 2.3 percent.17 A total of 72 percent of Tier 1 MBA students had studied entirely at private schools, while 95 percent had studied in a private school for one or more years. To put these numbers in national context, only 32 percent of all students in India study within private schools, with the rest attending government-run institutions (Desai, et al. 2008). A story of relative privilege, once again, emerges, tempered, once again, by the facts that (a) people from lower wealth groups have also gained entry, albeit in numbers much lower than their proportion shares; and (b) higher wealth provides no assurance of higher- 16 quality management education. Something else matters in addition to wealth (or lack of it), and we look below at other likely sources of influence. Parents’ occupations and education levels, because of intergenerational stickiness, have been shown repeatedly by social mobility analyses to have a critical impact upon children’s prospects. In the Indian context, Kumar et al. (2002 a and b) have highlighted the critical role of what they term the salariat, comprising salaried employees in government or private-sector offices together with self-employed professionals. We found this category to be quite robust for our analysis. As Table 4 shows, salariat fathers constitute as many as 82.2 percent of the total within Tier 1 and 63.1 percent in Tier 2, falling to 52 percent in Tier 3. Simultaneously, salariat mothers constitute just over 29 percent in both Tiers 1 and 2, falling to 17.2 percent in Tier 3. - Table 4 about here - As mentioned above, economic status is not alone sufficient to make it to a top-tier management institution. However, the large numbers of salariat fathers in Tier 1, coupled with the monotonic decline of this percentage across quality tiers, provides indication of inter-generational reproduction of occupational class. Further, and to some extent contrary to what Bertrand, et al. (2010) found in relation to engineering students, class seems to matter within caste categories as well: nearly all SC and ST students in our sample have salariat fathers. Another noteworthy result relates to the high share of government employees among Tier 1 fathers (55.7 percent), bearing out the finding, reported earlier by Fernandes (2006), that the children of those who benefited from the expansion of public-sector 17 positions during India’s first model of state-led development have derived large benefits from India’s second, post-1990s, model of economic liberalization. The share of agriculturist fathers (and mothers) is very low. According to data on occupational classifications collected in 2004-05 by India’s National Sample Survey Organization, more than 55 percent of India’s working population is categorized as cultivator or agricultural labor. Yet, only 1.8 percent of Tier 1 fathers are so classified, with this share rising within Tier 3, but still only 12.3 percent. Among mothers similarly, the share of agriculturists is dismally low. The rural-urban divide is critically important, as we will contend in a following sub-section. Another noteworthy feature is the high share of homemaker mothers, which rises monotonically from 66.8 percent in Tier 1 to 78.2 percent in Tier 3. Such mothers, likely to be less educated than others-- thus less firmly hooked into networks rich in career-relevant information-- are less likely to serve as a provider for their children of the kinds of “soft skills” that we will discuss below. Not surprising, given these results, the share of collegeeducated fathers and mothers is higher among Tier 1 and 2 institutions – and considerably lower in Tier 3. Table 5 reports these numbers. - Table 5 about here - Parents’ education levels serve not only as a measure of socio-economic status, but also are related to other influences on an individual’s prospects for social mobility. In contexts such as India, where institutions providing career guidance and relevant 18 information are virtually non-existent, parents also serve as a critical source of career guidance. It should not be surprising, thus, to find that a majority of MBA students come from highly-educated households. Nearly 74 percent of all fathers and more than 58 percent of all mothers have college degrees. To get a sense of how selective this group is consider the corresponding national proportions. According to the Indian Human Development Survey of 2004-05, only 6.8 percent of households in India have an adult woman with a college degree and only 13.2 percent have a male college degree-holder. Notably, as in the case of salariat mothers and fathers – but not in the case of household wealth – the proportion of college-educated parents falls monotonically from higher- to lower-quality-tier institutions. The Rural-Urban Divide The chances of getting into business school are low for rural individuals, and the more rural one is, the worse are these prospects. Nearly 69 percent of India’s population lives in its rural areas, but only seven percent of MBA students lived in a rural location through age 15. Only 12 percent studied in a rural school for one or more year, and only 40 students in all (3.3 percent of the total) undertook their entire K-12 educations in rural schools. Of these students, nearly 70 percent are in a Tier 3 institution. The proportion of rural-origin students, which is small in all schools, is largest among schools of Tier 3. The majority of Tier 1 (54.5 percent) and Tier 2 (67.7 percent) students reported living either in a metropolitan city or state capital (with a small proportion living abroad) 19 during the first 15 years of their lives. This big-city exposure clearly separates them from their Tier 3 counterparts – less than 30 percent of whom lived in a metro or state capital. In order to examine a larger range of variation, from the most remote rural locations (which typically do not have colleges, hospitals, national highways, and other infrastructure) through small towns (that are better served) to the biggest cities (which typically have the best infrastructure), we constructed a variable that added together responses related to ten separate infrastructure types.18 Consistent with their responses about rural residence and education, more than 50 percent of Tier 1 and Tier 2 respondents (and no more than 21 percent of Tier 3 students) reported the highest score on this variable. People who grow up in more rural locations have a progressively lower chance of getting into management schools, especially top-tier institutions. To be sure, we are not making a case that only students from the biggest or richest Indian cities have made it to a top-ranked business school. A majority (53.6 percent) of Tier 1 students lived in mediumsized towns between the ages of ten and 15. But very few lived in a rural village, with this proportion diminishing further as these students grew older. While 11.1 percent attended rural schools at the primary level (grades 1-4), only 7.1 percent attended rural middle schools (grades 8-10) and fewer yet, 3.8 percent, studied in rural high schools (grades 11-12). To overcome rural disadvantages, many families have migrated from villages to cities. As noted above, fewer than seven percent of MBA students lived in a village for the first 15 years of their lives. However, as many as 33 percent of their fathers and 29 percent of their 20 mothers were village-based for their first 15 years, only subsequently moving to towns, quite often with the objective of seeking better educational prospects for their children. Geographic mobility has served in a large number of cases as a means of social mobility. We asked respondents about whether or not their families had ever moved and whether this move was motivated primarily by the desire “to improve the academic prospects of you and your siblings.” On average, as many as 29 percent of students reported moving for academic reasons, with this proportion being fairly stable across quality tiers. Together, these results indicate that getting a MBA might seem an impossible dream to someone growing up in an Indian village. Only those who have the will and wherewithal to migrate to cities can expect to see their children flourish. One respondent elaborated as follows: “I am fortunate to have parents who realized the importance of education. I have witnessed the sacrifices they made to secure my future and to support my education till I could stand on my own two legs. They constantly supported me to excel in studies. My home town is Vellore. In fact, we moved from our native village to Vellore solely for my education. My mother, a village girl, aged 19 then, must be appreciated for having taken such a bold decision, amidst all the cautionary tales from relatives.” Learning in English One reason why parents move to cities for the sake of their children’s education has to do with the growing important of learning English, or better still, attending an English-medium school. Examining national data, Azam et al. (2013) uncover a substantial wage-premium for 21 English speakers across all occupations and skills levels, with this gap being largest among more experienced and educated workers and growing over time. Among our sample of MBA students, the critical importance of English shows up starkly: 88 percent of Tier 1 students studied in high schools where English was the medium of instruction (or first language used). As many as 71 percent of Tier 1 students attended English-medium schools from the outset, starting from the primary level. The corresponding proportions for Tiers 2 and 3 are 81.5 percent and 59.4 percent. MBA students, especially those who make it to the top-tier schools, are in this sense clearly not representative of the Indian population: Only 13 percent of schools at the primary and upper-primary stage in India have English as the medium of instruction and a further 18 percent teach English as the first or second language (NCERT 2005). Few village schools are able to field teachers who are competent to teach in English. Results of standardized tests conducted among 1114 year-old schoolchildren as part of the Indian Human Development Survey of 2004-05 show that while all types of learning outcomes are at considerably lower levels in rural compared to urban schools, falling regularly with increasing distances to towns; English language proficiency is more than seven times higher among urban compared to rural schoolchildren (Krishna 2012). “SOFT” SKILLS: INFORMATION, MOTIVATION, AND CAREER GUIDANCE Another motivation for moving one’s children from a village to a city emerges from the greater availability within cities of diverse career-relevant resources – such as role models, 22 guidance centers, coaching classes, and higher-aspiring peers – notably missing from all but a few rural locations. We look next at this set of variables. While aspirations, role-models and sources of information and guidance could be thought of as intervening or proximate variables – capturing to some extent the influences of factors missing in our analysis, such as child-rearing practices and neighborhood effects – they may also exert an influence, as some analysts have argued, that is independent of socio-demographic characteristics. For instance, Easterly (2001: 73), emphasizing the role played by incentives, asserts that where the “incentives to invest in the future are not there, expanding education is worth little.” Incentives are linked in turn to possibilities and alternatives. When the range of career possibilities visualized is itself impoverished, people’s incentives to invest in higher education get reduced. Inequality of opportunity is sustained in contexts where information about diverse career options is poorly available. Appadurai (2004: 68-70) notes how individuals living in environments rich in career-related information, including a diversity of role models, tend to “have a more complex experience of the relationship between a wide range of ends and means, because they have a bigger stock of available experiences… [while others] have a more brittle horizon of aspirations… and a thinner, weaker sense of career pathways.” Because they are harder to gauge compared to socio-economic features, soft skills have less often formed part of the analysis of social mobility. Particularly within India, none of the available analyses considers aspects such as aspirations and motivation alongside wealth, parents’ occupations, etc. We make a beginning in this regard by using such measures 23 as we could develop and to which we could obtain meaningful responses in our pilot surveys. Aspirations The survey we administered included two questions related to aspirations. One survey question asked respondents about whether they aspired to achieve more, less or the same as others in their neighborhood growing up at the same time as the respondent. A second question asked respondents if they had aspirations for a specific undergraduate institution by the time they were studying in the 10th grade.19 These results are broadly similar. On both measures, Tier 1 respondents have distinctly higher scores compared to Tiers 2 and 3. Over 93 percent of Tier 1 respondents consistently aspired to more than others in their neighborhood, with this number dropping to 69 percent in the lower two tiers. Similarly, while nearly 25 percent of Tier 1 respondents aspired for a specific undergraduate institution, this numbers drops to less than 15 percent in Tiers 2 and 3. Role Models and Stories of Success Another set of survey questions looked at sources of motivation, including role models. More than 71 percent of all respondents replied in the affirmative when asked if “any particular individual’s success story (an acquaintance, friend, relative, neighbor, or wellknown public person) inspired or motivated you.” The proportion of respondents who answered this question in the affirmative does not vary considerably across different tiers. However, the nature of the story that served as motivation varies considerably across different quality tiers. A majority (31 percent) of Tier 1 respondents pointed to a story of a 24 “well-known person” as the one that inspired them the most. In contrast, Tier 2 and 3 students were most often motivated by a friend’s or personal acquaintance’s story. More importantly, the points in their lives when respondents heard this motivating story also varied considerably across different quality tiers. A story heard earlier in life differentiates Tier 1 students from Tiers 2 and 3. Thirty-two percent of Tier 1 – but only 14 percent and 20 percent of Tier 2 and 3 – students who were inspired by any story heard this account before reaching Grade 8. We will probe this particular result further in the following section, where we look at regression results. Information and Career Guidance Meanwhile, it is useful to examine the roles played by information provision and career guidance. We looked at three different types of sources of career advice: personal sources (including parents, friends, teachers and relatives); institutional sources (newspapers, internet, television, radio, employment exchange and caste or religious organizations); and paid or professional sources (counselors, career centers, and private coaching institutes). In general, our data show that personal sources were primary for the vast majority of students across tiers. This high dependence upon personal resources of different types should come as no surprise in a low-information society such as India. There are, however, some differences among tiers. While parents were the most important resource for career guidance and advice for nearly 74 percent and 67 percent of Tier 2 and Tier 3 respondents, respectively, this number drops to 53.4 percent among Tier 1 students, who were more likely 25 compared to others to rely upon other sources, including peers, as a primary source of career advice. Similarly, while the use of institutional resources is low overall, Tier 1 respondents were more likely compared to Tiers 2 and 3 to tap such resources. Very few students (only 13 percent) were able to rely upon paid sources. Interestingly, Tier 2 and 3 students were more likely than Tier 1 to utilize paid sources. The higher use of institutional resources by Tier 1 students can be construed either as a marker of higher motivation or as a side-effect of greater wealth. However, as noted earlier, Tier 1 students are not, on average, from wealthier households compared to Tier 2. Clear differences between Tiers 1, 2 and 3 were detected only insofar as parents’ occupation and education levels, rural education, and English-medium education were concerned. Does having more educated or salariat parents – or being educated in an Englishmedium, big-city school – automatically result in the acquisition of superior soft skills? Or do aspirations and motivations, information and guidance also have independent origin and separate effects? In order to gain greater traction upon these issues, we look in the next section at the simultaneous effect of different factors examined above, including both socioeconomic and soft-skills variables. REGRESSION ANALYSIS A word of caution is in order. As noted earlier, we do not have a random sample of all Indian MBA students, neither are our tier samples proportionate to the numbers studying at 26 the corresponding quality tiers across all of India, so we have to be cautious while interpreting the results that follow (Berk and Freedman 2003). Empirically, we have to choose between using models that explicitly take into the account the ordering that we have imposed (across tiers) and others that ignore this ordering. We used the multinomial logit model (MNLM) since it treats the different tiers as nominal categories that are qualitatively different, without imposing an order based on any underlying construct that can be measured quantitatively (Argesti 2010). Moreover, unlike ordinal models, nominal model allow more flexibility, by not imposing a specific way in which outcomes are associated with the factors of interest.20 Formally, the MNLM is used to model the relative probabilities of studying in one tier compared to another as a function of diverse covariates, which are drawn from the preceding discussion. Other than their sign, the coefficients of a MNLM are hard to interpret. We are further constrained in giving these coefficients substantive meaning, because of the way in which our sample was constructed. Therefore, the results are reported in terms of “relative risk ratios” (RRR) -- a commonly reported measure when using multinomial logistic models.21 The RRR is an estimate of how the relative probabilities of studying in different tiers change alongside a unit change in the value of the associated independent variable. For example, in the case of a binary variable like gender and keeping the conditioning on other covariates implicit, the RRR is equal to 𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑅𝑅𝑅2,1 = 𝑃𝑟(𝑇𝑖𝑒𝑟 = 2| 𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 = 1, 𝒙𝒊 ′) 𝑃𝑟(𝑇𝑖𝑒𝑟 = 2| 𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 = 0, 𝒙𝒊 ′) ⁄ 𝑃𝑟(𝑇𝑖𝑒𝑟 = 1| 𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 = 1, 𝒙𝒊 ′) 𝑃𝑟( 𝑇𝑖𝑒𝑟 = 1| 𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 = 0 , 𝒙𝒊 ′) 27 where 𝒙𝒊 ′: refers to the set of covariates other than gender. In a model with just two tiers, this would be equivalent to an odds ratio and is independent of the sampling proportions from the different tiers. In our models, with three outcomes (Tier 2 v Tier 1; Tier 3 v Tier 1; and Tier 3 v. Tier 2), the RRRs provide an estimate of the extent to which a one-unit change in an independent variable multiplies the relative risk of studying in the comparison tier compared to the base tier. A value of 1 indicates that the relative risk associated with being in the comparison and base tiers are identical. A value greater than 1 suggests a positive association of being in the comparison tier rather than the base tier, while a value less than 1 indicates the opposite association. Table 6 provides a description of the different independent variables employed for this analysis, corresponding to the different influences explored above. - Table 6 about here - Our baseline model – presented in the first three data columns of Table 7 (under the heading “socio-economic”) considers only a subset of independent variables, related to demographic characteristics and socio-economic status. These are the more easily measured variables, typically utilized in analyses of social mobility. The particular variables considered here relate to gender, religion, caste,22 parents’ occupation, asset ownership, and rural origin of parents. - Table 7 about here - After estimating our baseline (or reduced-form) model, we looked at several other specifications. For the sake of brevity and since these representations are most illustrative, 28 we report results only from two further sets of models.23 The second set of models (reported under the heading “+parents”) added to the variables considered earlier two others that are related to fathers’ and mothers’ education. Given our interests in exploring intergenerational educational mobility we have presented these results separately. The third set of models (under “+soft skills”) add a further battery of variables related, respectively, to infrastructure availability, nature of schools attended, migration, role models, aspirations, guidance and information. Considering this series of results, we report below how the associations for the basic set of socio-demographic variables change as we added more variables to the regression model. The results show that the likelihood of a female candidate finding a place is higher in Tiers 2 and 3 compared to Tier 1. These associations do not change considerably even after other variables are added to the model. Similarly, belonging to the majority religion (Hindu) is consistently associated with a higher likelihood of being in Tier 2 or Tier 3 compared to Tier 1. On the other hand, the adjusted relative risk for OBC students studying in Tier 1 is larger than that of studying in Tier 2 but smaller than Tier 3. Parents’ and occupations and household wealth The variable that we use to measure father’s occupation is whether or not he belonged to the salariat (as defined above). We also considered whether the respondent’s mother worked outside the household. In the first and most basic set of regression models, having a mother who is employed outside the house is negatively associated with studying in a Tier 3 school. However, this association seems to arise largely because less educated mothers are also more 29 likely to be homemakers in our sample, and mother’s working status seems to have no independent influence on quality of educational outcome once parental education is controlled for in the later set of models. In contrast, father’s membership of the salariat class is a consistent differentiator between Tier 1 students and those of lower-quality tiers, remaining significant even after other variables are added to the model. The significance of father’s occupation in differentiating between Tier 2 and Tier 3 students disappears once parent’s educational levels and the nature of the town where they grew up are added to the model. Confirming what was noted above, economic wealth does not suffice to buy you entry to a Tier 1 institution. Consistently across different specifications of the regression model, the economically best-off respondents do not have any advantage (and to the contrary are disadvantaged) in getting into a Tier 1 school compared to the middle economic groups (the omitted category). This does not imply that household economic status does not matter at all. Contingent on being at a MBA-granting institution, household wealth can be a significant differentiator across different tiers. But these effects are confounded by the association between the socio-economic status of households and the nature of student’s home towns. Without controlling for the type of schooling, geographical location, and other mediating variables – i.e., looking at results in the column headed “+parents” – the relative risk of studying in a Tier 2 school for those in the wealthiest category (as opposed to the middle category) is 3.9 times the similar “risk” of studying in a Tier 1 school. The RRR associated with the wealthiest category for even Tier 3 schools compared to Tier 1 schools is 30 1.693 and statistically significant in the basic model. However, once school type and other variables are introduced (under the columns headed “+soft skills”), the advantage that the most economically well-off students enjoy (vis-à-vis those in the middle economic category) in avoiding Tier 3 schools is no longer statistically significant. While we are unable to explain the origins of the disadvantage that the wealthiest experience in gaining admittance to a Tier 1 school, we are able to go further in relation to the poorest category examined here. The absolute magnitude of the baseline RRR (1.912) for the comparison between the poorest and middle category indicates a positive association with studying in a Tier 3 compared to a Tier 1 institution. However, once we control for the infrastructure available in the town where the respondent grew up (result not shown), there is no statistically significant difference associated with belonging to the poorest group in our sample. A similar loss of significance is observed in the case of the comparison between Tiers 2 and 3, indicating that the disadvantage experienced by poorer students essentially seems to stem from the fact that such students are also more likely to come from places that have poorer infrastructure. In fact, the poorest category suffer no significant disadvantage whatsoever once a latter battery of variables is brought into play. The importance of parents’ education is evident from the effect that its inclusion has upon the associations with other independent variables. Individually, the education levels of both mothers and fathers are significant differentiators between Tier 3 students and those at higher tiers but not between the top two tiers. This association did not disappear even when 31 other variables are controlled suggesting that that parent’s educational attainment confers an advantage in terms of moving up to Tier 2 from Tier 3, but not any further. Parents rural origins and geographical mobility While mother’s rural origins has no independent association with the quality of outcome, fathers’ rural origins have a positive association with being in a Tier 1 school compared to other tiers, as well as being in a Tier 3 compared to a Tier 2 school, although the last of these relationships loses significance in the “+soft skills” columns. These results once again show how geographic mobility has been a precursor of social mobility, with rural-origin fathers moving to cities, particularly within the first 15 years of a respondent’s life. The variable associated with families migrating to a bigger town during the first 15 years of the respondent’s life is positively associated with landing up in a Tier 1 or Tier 2 school. These associations remained statistically significant in other specifications of the model. Type of K-12 schooling Compared to having at least some private schooling, not having studied in a private school at all, has a negative association with making it to a Tier 1 school. However, studying in private schools throughout seems to confer no independent advantage. Surprisingly, neither does the length of time spent in schools where English is the first language or medium of instruction. In contrast, a variable that sharply distinguishes Tier 3 respondents from other tiers is not having studied in a school governed by the syllabus and rules of the Central Board – a reasonable proxy for school quality that seems to dominate all other school- 32 related attributes. School quality, in general, and not just medium of instruction, makes a consistent difference. Soft Skills Controlling for the acknowledgement of a story about upward mobility serving as a source of inspiration and motivation, Tier 1 students are significantly different from others in both acknowledging being inspired by a story about a “well-known” person (as opposed to that of a personal acquaintance or relative) and of hearing this story earlier in their lives. There are no significant differences between Tiers 2 and 3 on this dimension. As reported earlier, there appears to be a clear gradient in terms of aspiration levels and quality of educational outcomes. Aspiring more than others (as opposed to less or the same) and aspiring for specific colleges by the 10th grade are both positively and significantly associated with finding a place in Tier 1. Interestingly, the addition of variables measuring role models and aspirations did not by itself affect the estimated coefficients for other variables included in the model, indicating that aspirations and role models do not simply represent pathways through which other influences tend to operate. Instead, our models suggest that one does not need to come from an advantaged socio-economic status to have higher aspirations, be motivated early in life, and have more motivating role models – all of which independently assist with obtaining better educational outcomes. Further, as discussed earlier, respondents from different tiers differ in the number and type of sources consulted for guidance and information. Tier 1 respondents are much 33 more likely to seek guidance and to do it from a diverse range of sources, including from teachers. The regression analysis suggests that this association is also statistically significant and independent from other likely correlates. Providing career information and guidance can also be considered as independent policy interventions that have the effect of equalizing opportunity and raising social mobility, especially among poorer individuals and marginalized communities, whose ability to access alternative and paid-for resources (such as coaching institutes) is more constrained. OVERCOMING MULTIPLE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DISADVANTAGES People from disadvantaged social origins – poorer households, less educated parents, rural and vernacular-medium schools, and ritually low castes – tend to be excluded from MBA programs. However, this exclusion is far from complete. Although they constitute a small proportion of all students, their presence within business schools, including Tier 1 and Tier 2 institutions, shows evidence of demonstrated upward mobility. Moreover, initially disadvantaged students end up joining MBA programs of different quality. The question we turn to next is what takes students down different journeys, in particular what factors seem to be associated with covering greater distances between origins and destinations along these journeys of upward mobility? Using four aspects of social origin: economic status, parents’ education, rural origin, and ritually low-caste origins, we developed a composite score based on the number of disadvantages experienced, counting as one each particular aspect of disadvantage. 34 Disadvantage in economic status is measured as growing up in households with fewer than five assets; in relation to parents’ education it is measured as fathers with less than college education; disadvantage in terms of rural origin is scored 1 if the respondent spent the first five years of her or his life in a village; and SCs, STs, and OBCs score 1 in relation to the fourth aspect, with everyone else scoring zero. Hardly any student experienced all four types of disadvantage, although there are many whose disadvantage score is 3. Table 8 shows the distribution of aggregate disadvantage scores. For ease in presentation, we combine the numbers for Tiers 1 and 2, contrasting these scores with the corresponding disadvantage scores for Tier 3 students. - Table 8 about here - Overcoming multiple disadvantages requires some combination of working harder, geographic mobility, higher motivation and aspirations, more information and better guidance, and greater external support in the form of financial assistance and affirmative action policies. On each of these dimensions, more disadvantaged students score higher than less disadvantaged ones. Among those who made it to Tier 1 and 2 schools, more disadvantaged schools have higher 10th grade scores compared to less disadvantaged ones. A greater percentage has work experience. Encouragingly, these results show that hard work can help overcome liabilities associated with relative poverty and rural origin. 35 But hard work is rarely enough by itself. Other factors matter as well. A greater proportion of more disadvantaged students moved along with their families from villages to cities, leaving behind at least one source of disadvantage, and in the process, making it possible for themselves to gain better soft skills. More disadvantaged students have higher aspirations, especially within Tiers 1 and 2. They are also more motivated by publicly known examples who serve as role models, having come under the influence of these examples relatively early in their lives. It is necessary for more disadvantaged students to look across multiple sources for inspiration, information, and advice. Since their parents, being less educated, are less likely to provide information-rich career guidance, disadvantaged students who end up being successful tend to rely upon a greater variety of information and guidance resources. Outside assistance in the form of financial aid helps with the hard work and other efforts that disadvantaged students need to put in. Across tiers, the more disadvantaged are more likely to have received financial assistance. Our case studies, not presented here for lack of space, showed how it is almost impossible for those from more disadvantaged backgrounds to make it to a MBA program without financial assistance. Twelve of 15 Tier 1 students who experienced at least three of these four disadvantages, received some form of financial assistance, with the majority, 56 percent, receiving such assistance from the government or public institutions. Affirmative action policies have also helped. As we saw earlier, the share of SC and ST students is highest in the Tier 1 institution – a counter-intuitive finding that cannot be 36 explained except by referring to affirmative action. More closely observed in the Tier 1 institution, which is state managed, affirmative action policies have resulted in SC and ST students becoming, respectively, 10.2 percent and 4.7 percent of all Tier 1 students, far higher than in Tiers 2 and 3. The fact that these students have worked hard for their places, achieving higher 10 th grade scores, on average, compared to other and less-disadvantaged students, is an encouraging fact. But it leaves open a question about the existence of other disadvantaged students who are also smart and hard-working but whose disadvantages were not compensated for either by geographic mobility, or by access to guidance and role models, or through the provision of external assistance. Are some of India’s most productive human resources not getting their fair share of opportunities, resulting in widespread losses not only in terms of social justice but also in relation to aggregate economic gains? CONCLUSION In most modern societies education has been regarded as a means for social mobility, and the state has acted to facilitate both education and opportunity. The reality in India has not historically matched the rhetoric. Weiner’s (1991) argument that “in India, education has been largely an instrument for differentiation by separating children according to social class,” a harsh indictment, has not been easy to shake off in subsequent years. Our analysis of MBA students provides a glass half-empty (or half-full) perspective, depending upon which parts are emphasized. Compared, for example, with the position in 37 the 1960s, examined by Rajagopal and Singh (1968), the current picture is much better. From zero the share of women has climbed to 33 percent. Similarly, the share of SCs and STs, also zero in the 1960s, has risen, especially within those business schools that more fully abide by the state’s affirmative action quotas. Parental wealth matters, but not as much as is sometimes believed, certainly there is no one-to-one relationship between wealth and nature of institution attended. Individuals from less well-endowed households have also gained entry to business schools, albeit still in low numbers. It is interesting to note that middle-wealth categories are better represented, especially within top-tier schools, and that the share of the wealthiest is higher among lowertier institutions. “Once children’s basic material needs are met, characteristics of their parents become more important to how they turn out than anything that additional money can buy”(Mayer 1997:12). 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(2007). “Employment, Exclusion and ‘Merit’ in the Indian IT Industry.” Economic and Political Weekly, May 19, pp. 1863-8. 46 Table 1: Religious composition (percentage of all respondents) Hindu Muslim Christian Buddhist Sikh Atheist/Agnostic Do not wish to respond Other Total Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Average 70.9 2.5 3.2 1.4 1.8 9.0 7.6 3.6 100 83.2 0.8 1.2 0 6.8 2.0 3.2 2.8 100 79.0 8.7 7.8 0.3 1.2 0.3 1.1 1.6 100 78.0 5.6 5.3 0.5 2.6 2.7 3.1 2.3 100 47 Census 2011 80.5 13.4 2.3 0.8 1.9 0.6 Table 2: Caste Composition (percentage of all respondents) Upper-caste Hindu SC ST OBC Other/no response Total Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Average 61.8 10.2 4.7 13.5 9.8 100 93.1 0 0 3.2 3.6 100 61.8 5 0.3 28.2 4.7 100 68.6 5.2 1.3 19.3 5.7 100 48 Census 2001 16.2 8.2 27.0 Table 3: Household Wealth (number of assets) (percentage of all respondents) Number of assets 0-4 5-6 7-8 9-10 11-12 >12 Total Tier 1 5.4 11.4 22.5 29.3 21.8 9.6 100 49 Tier 2 3.5 4.2 10.0 13.8 28.5 40.0 100 Tier 3 12.8 11.1 15.4 18.3 23.5 18.9 100 Average 9.1 9.7 15.9 19.9 24.1 21.3 100 Table 4: Parents’ Occupations (percentage of all respondents) Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Average FATHER Self-employed professional Government job Military Private sector job Salariat* Own business Agriculturist Out of work or day labor Other Total 6.1 55.7 2.9 17.5 82.2 12.1 1.8 0 3.9 100 6.9 38.5 1.9 15.8 63.1 34.6 1.2 0.4 0.8 100 5.5 30.9 2.2 13.4 52.0 32.8 12.3 2.2 0.7 100 5.9 38.2 2.3 14.8 61.2 28.4 7.5 1.3 1.5 100 MOTHER Self-employed professional Government job/military Private sector job Salariat* Own business Homemaker Agriculturist Other Total 3.9 18.9 6.4 29.2 1.4 66.8 0.4 2.1 100 7.8 15.9 5.8 29.5 2.3 68.2 0 0 100 2.8 9.9 4.5 17.2 1.6 78.2 2.5 0.4 100 4.1 13.3 5.2 22.6 1.7 73.4 1.5 0.7 100 * equals the sum of the preceding categories 50 Table 5: Parents’ Education (percentage of all respondents) Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Average FATHER Ph.D Masters Bachelors College degree* Higher secondary (12 years) High school (10 years) Middle School Primary Other Diploma Total 6 33.5 47 86.5 7.5 2.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 1.8 100 3.1 36.8 50.8 90.7 3.1 3.9 0.4 0.8 1.2 0 100 1.9 21.6 38.5 62 17.8 11.8 4.2 2.2 1.9 0 100 3.1 27.6 43.1 73.8 12.2 8 2.6 1.5 1.4 0.4 100 MOTHER Ph.D Masters Bachelors College degree* Higher secondary (12 years) High school (10 years) Middle School Primary Other None Total 6.8 28.5 37.4 72.7 12.5 8.9 3.6 1.1 0.4 1.1 100 1.6 29.1 50.4 81.1 9.3 7 1.2 1.6 0 0 100 1.2 12.9 29.5 43.6 20.7 19.2 8.7 6 1.8 0 100 2.6 20 35.8 58.4 16.3 14.2 5.9 3.9 1.1 0.2 100 * equals the sum of the preceding categories 51 Table 6: Independent Variables Variable female hindu obc fsalar mwork fbach Mean 0.319 0.743 0.179 0.606 0.262 0.727 S.D. 0.466 0.437 0.384 0.489 0.44 0.446 0.573 0.188 0.454 6.928 0.495 0.391 0.498 3.099 frur mrur pvtschnone pvtschall engfnone Mother completed bachelor’s degree 0-6 Assets > 10 Assets Count of available infrastructure in home town (national highway, state highway, district road; medical college, hospital, clinic; university, high school, middle school) Father grew up in rural location Mother grew up in rural location No private schooling All private schools Never studied in a school with English as first language/medium of instruction 0.33 0.284 0.133 0.658 0.208 0.471 0.451 0.339 0.475 0.406 engfall Always studied in schools with English as first language/medium of instruction 0.616 0.487 cenboard Graduated Tenth Grade from Central Board of Secondary Education (one indicator of school quality) 0.503 0.5 movecityacad Moved location for academic reasons 0.163 0.369 migup e5story wellknownst earlystory aspcol Migrated from smaller to larger town before 15 years of age Motivated by a particular story of some individual’s upward mobility Motivated by a story of a well-known person Heard story before or during middle school Aspired for a specific college in Tenth grade 0.125 0.719 0.14 0.168 0.168 0.33 0.45 0.348 0.374 0.374 aspmore Aspired to achieve more than others in one’s neighborhood 0.79 0.407 indgud Obtained career guidance from parents/friends/relatives 0.903 0.296 indinf instigud instinf Obtained information about colleges and jobs from parents/friends/relatives Obtained career guidance from TV, radio, news, internet Obtained information about colleges from TV, radio, internet 0.897 0.322 0.8 0.305 0.467 0.4 paidgud Obtained career guidance from private training institutes 0.13 0.337 paidinf Obtained information about colleges and jobs from private institute 0.456 0.498 gudteach c1infteach Obtained career guidance from teacher Obtained information about colleges and jobs from teacher 0.485 0.585 0.5 0.493 mbach ass3cat_1 ass3cat_3 numtotinfra Description Female Hindu Other Backward Caste Father is a salaried employee (public or private sector) Mother works outside the house Father completed bachelor’s degree 52 Table 7: Multinomial Linear Logistic Regression Results socio-economic VARIABLES female hindu obc fsalar mwork fbach mbach ass3cat_1 ass3cat_3 numtotinfra frur mrur pvtschnone pvtschall engfnone engfall cenboard movecityacad migup e5story wellknownst earlystory aspcol aspmore indgud indinf instigud instinf paidgud paidinf gudteach c1infteach Constant Observations ll df_m chi2 +parents T2 v T1 2.259*** 1.887*** 0.292*** 0.493*** 0.981 T3 v T1 2.992*** 1.450** 2.295*** 0.283*** 0.619*** T3 v T2 1.324 0.768 7.854*** 0.574*** 0.631** 1.137 3.927*** 1.912*** 1.693*** 0.360*** 0.875 0.519** (0.167) 1,040 + soft skills 1.682 0.431*** T2 v T1 2.167*** 1.867*** 0.285*** 0.527*** 1.072 1.267 0.806 1.178 3.960*** T3 v T1 3.536*** 1.518** 1.706** 0.364*** 0.887 0.496*** 0.313*** 1.724** 1.995*** T3 v T2 1.632*** 0.813 5.986*** 0.692* 0.828 0.392*** 0.388*** 1.464 0.504*** 0.608** 1.396 1.690** 1.596* 0.360*** 0.872 0.615** 0.887 1.709** 1.017 2.029*** (0.517) 1,040 -914.0 18 303.1 3.909*** (1.109) 1,040 0.466* (0.195) 1,040 5.534*** (1.720) 1,040 -872.2 22 386.7 11.87*** (4.335) 1,040 *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 53 T2 v T1 2.244*** 1.958*** 0.297*** 0.554** 1.036 1.011 0.693 0.998 3.440*** 0.889** 0.453*** 0.905 2.521* 1.195 0.560 0.996 1.188 0.740 0.368*** 1.394 0.581* 0.384*** 0.612* 0.445** 0.216*** 0.475 0.260*** 1.732* 0.296*** 2.533*** 0.474*** 0.839 33.12*** (33.33) 1,040 T3 v T1 3.711*** 1.451 1.694* 0.460*** 0.783 0.475** 0.349*** 0.895 2.674*** 0.705*** 0.585** 0.966 4.053*** 1.192 0.916 1.059 0.228*** 0.716 0.435*** 1.494 0.558** 0.561** 0.403*** 0.171*** 0.437* 0.344** 0.325*** 2.395*** 0.394*** 1.428 0.960 0.644* 3,378*** (3,129) 1,040 -661.3 64 808.5 T3 v T2 1.654** 0.741 5.698*** 0.830 0.756 0.470** 0.504*** 0.897 0.777 0.793*** 1.290 1.067 1.608 0.997 1.636 1.062 0.192*** 0.967 1.182 1.072 0.961 1.463 0.657 0.384*** 2.029* 0.724 1.251 1.383 1.333 0.564** 2.024*** 0.767 102.0*** (84.50) 1,040 Table 8: Overcoming Disadvantages (percentage of respondents) Tiers 1&2 Disadvantage Score 0 1 2 Tier 3 >=3 0 1 2 >=3 SC 0.0 10.8 27.8 18.8 0.0 4.1 6.7 15.1 ST 0.0 6.5 8.3 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.2 OBC 0.0 19.4 27.8 50.0 0.0 23.9 46.3 70.9 Percentage score in 10th grade board exam 81.9 82.9 83.3 86.3 67.9 67.8 64.8 63.6 Had previous job 43.0 49.2 51.4 62.5 21.7 25.7 22.9 23.0 Moved home town 14.9 20.1 25.0 37.5 10.8 14.7 19.4 23.3 Aspired more than neighbours 86.7 91.9 97.2 100.0 76.9 65.3 66.1 70.1 “Well-known” story 16.4 17.2 22.2 37.5 9.1 Heard story before 8th grade 14.1 22.4 30.6 56.3 15.1 13.3 15.7 19.4 Parents 70.8 54.8 36.1 25.0 73.3 67.0 61.4 54.8 Friends 9.7 14.1 27.8 18.8 8.3 7.1 10.2 21.4 Relatives 5.7 7.4 11.1 12.5 3.7 5.2 11.8 6.0 Teachers 5.2 11.9 8.3 18.8 8.7 13.2 9.4 13.1 Newspapers 1.7 2.2 5.6 18.8 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.0 29.7 38.1 44.4 75.0 16.9 22.5 20.1 38.4 8.3 14.4 17.8 Primary source of guidance Received financial assistance 54 NOTES 1 Bolshaw, L. “Push to Help Women find the Keys to the C-suite.” Financial Times, November 21, 2011.Retrieved from http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/23b91ca8-0ee0-11e1-b58500144feabdc0.html#axzz1fAbUCUcd 2 Report of the Working Group on Management Education of the National Knowledge Commission, established by the Prime Minister of India in 2005. Available at http://www.knowledgecommission.gov.in/downloads/documents/wg_managedu.pdf. 3 See, for instance, Bowles and Gintis (2002); Corak (2004); Erickson and Goldthorpe (1992, 2002); Hout (2006); Hout and DiPrete (2006); Jantti, et al. (2005); Morgan (2006); OECD (2010); Roemer (2004); Solon (2002); and Smeeding (2005). 4 See, for example, Behrman, Birdsall, and Szekely (2001); ECLAC (2007); Paxson and Schady (2005); Scott and Litchfield (1994); and Trzcinski and Randolph (1991). 5 See, for example, Bourdieu (1986); Currie (2001); Danziger and Waldvogel (2005); DiMaggio (1982); Esping-Andersen (2004); Hannum and Buchmann (2005); and Mayer (1997). 6 See, for example, Behrman, Birdsall and Szekely (2001); Birdsall and Graham (2000); Castaneda and Aldaz-Carroll (1999); Graham (2000); Grawe (2004); Moser (2009); Perlman (2011); and Quisumbing (2006). 7 Scheduled Castes (SCs, former untouchables) and Scheduled Tribes (STs, roughly translatable to India’s indigenous people) are historically deprived groups, whose representation in institutions of higher learning has remained low despite affirmative action. No more than 1.4 percent of all SCs and 0.9 percent of all STs are estimated to have post-graduate or professional degrees, with these tiny 55 percentages falling further among women and poorer segments of these groups (Deshpande and Yadav 2006). 8 One such story that attracted a great deal of public attention was reported with the provocative title: “Your Birthplace, Background Don’t Determine Your Success.” Retrieved June 27, 2012, from http://www.rediff.com/getahead/slide-show/slide-show-1-achievers-vikas-khemani-yourbirthplace-background-don-t-determine-your-success/20120626.htm 9 A fuller description of this test, as well as details about the innovative company, Aspiring Minds, that has designed and which administers this test, are available at the web site: www.aspiringminds.in 10 This range of response rates is more than the average achieved in surveys of this kind. The average response rate for online surveys is around 34 percent, according to Cook, et al. (2000). 11 “Why are there so few women managers in India?” Reported on October 6, 2006 at http://www.rediff.com/money/2006/oct/06guest.htm 12 This committee, popularly known as the Sachar Committee, also advanced useful suggestions for remedying this pathology. See http://minorityaffairs.gov.in/sachar. 13 The implementation of quotas for OBCs was being commenced at the time when these data were collected. 14 To examine the nature and extent of the non-response bias, we compared values on other non- missing attributes for the group missing their caste status to those disclosing their caste status. The results of this comparison supported the view about a greater non-response on the caste variable among the SC, ST, and OBC categories. 15 Incomes are particularly hard to recall accurately, especially in rural contexts where seasonality can result in considerable fluctuations. Following Brandolini et al. (2010) and Carter and Barrett (2006), 56 we preferred to examine households’ usual (or structural) material conditions using asset ownership as our measure. 16 We also used principal component analysis to create other asset-based indices, weighted in different ways. However, the correlation of these indices with the simple count of the total number was > 0.95 in each case, reinforcing our preference for using the simpler and more intuitive measure. 17 These numbers do not include Kendriya Vidyalas (Central Schools or KVs), elite government schools created primarily to serve the children of central government employees, especially those who are relocated frequently. Including KVs does not change the reported proportions substantially: there are only 19 students in our sample who studied in a KV throughout and 51 who studied for one year or more. 18 We asked for information on the availability of the following infrastructure in the town or village where the respondent grew up: national highway, state highway, district road; medical college, hospital, clinic; university, college, high school and middle school. 19 This is in line with the use of “plans for college” question used by studies like Buchmann and Hannum (2001) to measure aspirations among adolescents. 20 We experimented with using Stata’s cluster option to account for non-independence of observations among students from the same institution. In all cases where there was a change in statistical significance, this change was in the direction of smaller standard errors and therefore finding a larger group of variables that were statistically significant. Since, there is no consensus in the literature of the appropriateness of using correction in models estimated using Maximum 57 Likelihood (Freedman 2006), we take the more conservative approach and present results that do not correct for clustering. 21 Multinomial logit models were estimated using the mlogit command in Stata (Version 11). 22 Since there are no SC and ST students in Tier 2, and since several minority religions are also under-represented, we could not include these variables in the regression analyses. 23 Readers interested in viewing additional regression results can obtain them on request from the authors. 58